View source for Climate change in Malaysia

{{Short description|Impact of global warming on the south-east Asian country and mitigating and adaptating to it}}
[[File:Temperature Bar Chart Asia-Malaysia--1901-2020--2021-07-13.png|thumb|Graph showing [[temperature anomaly]] in Malaysia between 1901 and 2021.]]
[[Climate change]] is having a considerable impact in [[Malaysia]]. Increasing temperatures are likely to greatly increase the number of [[heatwave]]s occurring annually. Variations in [[precipitation]] may increase the frequency of [[drought]]s and [[Floods in Malaysia|floods]] in various local areas. [[Sea level rise]] may inundate some coastal areas. These impacts are expected to have numerous environmental and socioeconomic effects, exacerbating existing [[Environmental issues in Malaysia|environmental issues]] and reinforcing [[Income inequality in Malaysia|inequality]].

Malaysia itself contributes emissions given its significant use of [[coal]] and [[natural gas]]. However, the use of [[hydropower]] has expanded in the 21st century, and other potential energy sources such as [[solar power]] and [[biomass]] are being explored. The [[Government of Malaysia|government]] anticipates the need to adapt in areas such as health and coastal defences, and has ratified the [[Paris Agreement]].

==Emissions==
[[File:Sandakan Sabah IOI-Sandakan-Biomass-Power-Plant-02.jpg|thumb|A [[biomass]] power plant in [[Sandakan]].]]
As of 2000, the largest sectoral contributor to [[greenhouse gas emissions]] was the [[Energy policy of Malaysia|energy sector]], whose 58&nbsp;million tonnes (Mt) of {{CO2}} equivalent emissions made up 26% of the national total. This was followed by the transport sector with 36 Mt, or 16%.<ref name="WHO2015">{{cite web |url=https://apps.who.int/iris/rest/bitstreams/926013/retrieve |title=Climate and Health Country Profile – 2015 Malaysia |publisher=World Health Organization |date=2015 |access-date=17 October 2021}}</ref>{{rp|7}} Other estimates put the energy sector as producing 55% of {{CO2}} emissions in 2011, and 46% in 2013.<ref name="2021Norasyiqin">{{cite journal |author1=Siti Norasyiqin Abdul Latif |author2=Meng Soon Chiong |author3=Srithar Rajoo |author4=Asako Takada |author5=Yoon-Young Chun |author6=Kiyotaka Tahara |author7=Yasuyuki Ikegami |title=The Trend and Status of Energy Resources and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Malaysia Power Generation Mix |journal=Energies |date=15 April 2021 |volume=14 |issue=8 |page=2200 |doi=10.3390/en14082200 |url=https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/8/2200/pdf|doi-access=free}}</ref>
[[File:Energy cosumption by source, Malaysia.svg|thumb|Breakdown of energy consumption by source in Malaysia, 1965 to 2020.]]
[[Fossil fuel]]s remain the primary fuel for electricity generation. Demand for electricity grew 64% in the decade prior to 2017. In 2017, over 44% of electricity was produced from burning [[coal]], and 38% from [[natural gas]]. The 17% produced through [[renewable energy]] came almost completely from [[hydropower]], with other renewables producing just 0.5% of electricity. Coal usage has been increasing, overtaking natural gas usage in 2010.  The percentage produced by natural gas has decreased from 57% in 1995, when coal produced only 9%. Most coal is imported, due to the high costs of mining domestic deposits. Much of this change is due to the amount of natural gas being used deliberately being maintained at its 2000 levels, leaving further demand to be taken up by coal as part of diversification. Natural gas production continued to increase, but was diverted to exports. At one point oil was a significant fuel for electricity generation, producing 21% of electricity in 1995, but as oil prices rose this decreased to 2% in 2010 and 0.6% in 2017.<ref name="2021Norasyiqin"/>

[[Hydropower]] is concentrated in [[East Malaysia]], although potential also exists in [[Perak]] and [[Pahang]]. Despite the recent increase in coal use, no new coal capacity is expected under current plans, which instead target natural gas, and to a lesser extent solar and hydropower. {{CO2}} and {{CH4}} emissions decreased from 2010 to 2017, during a period of hydropower expansion, while the growth in {{N2O}} emissions slowed.<ref name="2021Norasyiqin"/>

[[Short-lived climate pollutants]] are related to high levels of [[Air pollution in Malaysia|air pollution]] in major cities.<ref name="WHO2015"/>{{rp|5}}

[[Deforestation in Malaysia|Deforestation]], particularly for [[Palm oil production in Malaysia|palm oil]] and [[natural rubber]] production, is also a major contributor to the country's greenhouse gas emissions. A 2016 study estimated deforestation and [[land use change]] between 2010 and 2015 contributed to 22.1 million Mg annual CO<sub>2</sub> emissions.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Hamdan |first1=O |last2=Rahman |first2=K Abd |last3=Samsudin |first3=M |date=June 2016 |title=Quantifying rate of deforestation and CO<sub>2</sub>emission in Peninsular Malaysia using Palsar imageries |journal=IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science |language=en |volume=37 |issue=1 |pages=012028 |doi=10.1088/1755-1315/37/1/012028 |bibcode=2016E&ES...37a2028H |s2cid=132695025 |issn=1755-1307|doi-access=free }}</ref>

==Impacts==
[[File:Bako mangrove01.jpg|thumb|Mangroves in Bako]]
Malaysia has experienced warming and rainfall irregularities particularly in the last two decades.<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Tang |first=Kuok Ho Daniel |date=February 2019 |title=Climate change in Malaysia: Trends, contributors, impacts, mitigation and adaptations |url=https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0048969718337732 |journal=Science of the Total Environment |language=en |volume=650 |issue=Pt 2 |pages=1858–1871 |doi=10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.09.316|pmid=30290336 |bibcode=2019ScTEn.650.1858T |s2cid=52923311 }}</ref>

Existing [[Environmental issues in Malaysia|environmental pressures]] on natural resources are expected to be exacerbated.<ref name="WBADB2021">{{cite web |url=https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/2021-08/15868-WB_Malaysia%20Country%20Profile-WEB.pdf |title=Climate Risk Country Profile: Malaysia (2021) |author1=World Bank Group |author2=Asian Development Bank |date=2021 |access-date=14 October 2021}}</ref>{{rp|3}} Natural disasters already cause around $1.3 billion in damage annually, mostly due to flooding.<ref name="WBADB2021"/>{{rp|21}}

=== Temperature changes ===
{{multiple image
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| image1 = Koppen-Geiger Map MYS present.svg
| caption1 = [[Köppen climate classification]] map for Malaysia for 1980–2016
| image2 = Koppen-Geiger Map MYS future.svg
| caption2 = 2071–2100 map under [[Representative Concentration Pathway|the most intense climate change scenario]]. Mid-range scenarios are currently considered more likely<ref name="HausfatherPeters2020">{{cite journal|last1=Hausfather|first1=Zeke|last2=Peters|first2=Glen|title=Emissions – the 'business as usual' story is misleading|journal=Nature|date=29 January 2020|volume=577|issue=7792|pages=618–20|doi=10.1038/d41586-020-00177-3|pmid=31996825|bibcode=2020Natur.577..618H|doi-access=free}}</ref><ref name="Schuur2022">{{Cite journal |last1=Schuur |first1=Edward A.G. |last2=Abbott |first2=Benjamin W. |last3=Commane |first3=Roisin |last4=Ernakovich |first4=Jessica |last5=Euskirchen |first5=Eugenie |last6=Hugelius |first6=Gustaf |last7=Grosse |first7=Guido |last8=Jones |first8=Miriam |last9=Koven |first9=Charlie |last10=Leshyk |first10=Victor |last11=Lawrence |first11=David |last12=Loranty |first12=Michael M. |last13=Mauritz |first13=Marguerite |last14=Olefeldt |first14=David |last15=Natali |first15=Susan |last16=Rodenhizer |first16=Heidi |last17=Salmon |first17=Verity |last18=Schädel |first18=Christina |last19=Strauss |first19=Jens |last20=Treat |first20=Claire |last21=Turetsky |first21=Merritt |year=2022 |title=Permafrost and Climate Change: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic |journal=Annual Review of Environment and Resources |volume=47 |pages=343–371 |doi=10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011847 |quote="Medium-range estimates of Arctic carbon emissions could result from moderate climate emission mitigation policies that keep global warming below 3°C (e.g., RCP4.5). This global warming level most closely matches country emissions reduction pledges made for the Paris Climate Agreement..." |doi-access=free }}</ref><ref name="Phiddian2022">{{Cite web |last=Phiddian |first=Ellen |date=5 April 2022 |title=Explainer: IPCC Scenarios |url=https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/climate/explainer-ipcc-scenarios/ |website=[[Cosmos (magazine)|Cosmos]] |access-date=30 September 2023 |quote="The IPCC doesn’t make projections about which of these scenarios is more likely, but other researchers and modellers can. [[The Australian Academy of Science]], for instance, released a report last year stating that our current emissions trajectory had us headed for a 3°C warmer world, roughly in line with the middle scenario. [[Climate Action Tracker]] predicts 2.5 to 2.9°C of warming based on current policies and action, with pledges and government agreements taking this to 2.1°C. |archive-date=20 September 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230920224129/https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/climate/explainer-ipcc-scenarios/ |url-status=live }}</ref>
}}
Temperatures rose by 0.14–0.25&nbsp;°C per decade from 1970 to 2013.<ref name="WBADB2021"/>{{rp|6}}  By 2090, they are projected to rise between an additional 0.8&nbsp;°C and 3.11&nbsp;°C depending on global emissions.<ref name="WBADB2021"/>{{rp|2}} There is little expected seasonal variation for temperature increase.<ref name="WBADB2021"/>{{rp|10}} However, [[heatwave]]s are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. Currently, a period of three days at the extreme high of expected temperatures has a 2% probability of occurring. Under high emissions scenarios, this will increase to 93%, reflecting the overall higher temperatures.<ref name="WBADB2021"/>{{rp|12}} Such high temperatures will worsen existing [[urban heat island]]s such as [[Kuala Lumpur]], which can already reach temperatures {{convert|4-6|C|F}} higher than surrounding areas.<ref name="WBADB2021"/>{{rp|20}} Annual heat-related deaths among the elderly may go from less than 1 per 100,000 to 45 per 100,000 in high-emission scenarios.<ref name="WHO2015"/>{{rp|1}}<ref name="WBADB2021"/>{{rp|23}} [[Coral bleaching]] is another expected effect, which will have both environmental and economic impacts.<ref name="WBADB2021"/>{{rp|18}} Rising temperatures has meant few to no male turtles are now being born in Peninsular Malaysia.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/22/turtles-swimming-towards-extinction-in-malaysia-as-male-hatchlings-feel-heat |title=Turtles swimming to extinction in Malaysia as male hatchlings feel heat |author=Patrick Lee |date=22 April 2024 |access-date=26 April 2024}}</ref>

=== Precipitation and flooding ===
A reliance on surface water leaves Malaysia vulnerable to precipitation changes, however models do not show significant expected changes, and [[Kelantan]] and [[Pahang]] may see more water than they do at present.<ref name="WBADB2021" />{{rp|15}} Rainfall is expected to increase, and more so in East Malaysia than Peninsular Malaysia. The precise magnitude of the increase varies between predictions, and between potential emissions scenarios. Under the scenarios predicting high levels of global emissions, the increase is expected to be around 12% above the current {{convert|2,732|mm|in}}. Flooding, exacerbated by [[extreme weather|extreme rainfall]] events, is a present and growing risk.<ref name="WBADB2021" />{{rp|2, 6–7, 11}} With no action taken, under a high emissions scenario floods may affect an average of 234,500 people annually between 2070 and 2100.<ref name="WHO2015" />{{rp|1}} Extreme rainfall events may deposit up to 32% more rain in 2090. In 2010, around 130,000 people in the country were exposed to potential 1-in-25-year flood events. Under high emissions, this will increase to 200,000 by 2030. Even in low emission scenarios, 1-in-100-year events are expected to become 1-in-25-year occurrences.<ref name="WBADB2021" />{{rp|13–14}} Ecosystem degradation and the spread of urban areas have weakened natural flood resilience.<ref name="WBADB2021" />{{rp|16}}

=== Sea level rise ===
From 1993 to 2015, [[Sea level rise|sea levels rose]] between {{convert|3.3|mm|in}} and {{convert|5|mm|in}} annually, depending on location.<ref name="WBADB2021"/>{{rp|16}} In the future, sea levels are expected to rise 0.4–0.7m, with East Malaysia being particularly vulnerable. Coastal agricultural areas are a noted area of risk, and current mangrove habitats may disappear by 2060.<ref name="WBADB2021"/>{{rp|17}} Such a rise will increase the impact of [[typhoon]]s, which themselves may be increased in intensity.<ref name="WBADB2021"/>{{rp|14–15}} This brings risk to current [[ecotourism]] in coastal areas.<ref name="WBADB2021"/>{{rp|18}}

=== Impacts on people ===
[[File:December 2021 Malaysian floods in Klang.jpg|thumb|[[December 2021 Malaysian floods|Major floods in December 2021]] were linked to climate change by several experts.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Malaysia's 'once in 100 years' flood exposes reality of climate change, better disaster planning needed: Experts |url=https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/malaysia-once-100-years-flooding-climate-change-disaster-planning-2391316 |access-date=2022-06-12 |website=CNA |language=en}}</ref>]]
[[Agriculture in Malaysia|Agriculture]] is further threatened by droughts and [[Floods in Malaysia|floods]]. Rice yields may decline by 60%. Other potentially impacted products include rubber, palm oil, and cocoa.<ref name="WBADB2021" />{{rp|2}} Annual drought probability, which currently lies at 4%, may increase to 9%. Such probability varies by locality, being most likely in [[Sabah]].<ref name="WBADB2021" />{{rp|12–13}} Overall, precipitation changes will have a more significant impact on agriculture than temperature changes.<ref name="WBADB2021" />{{rp|19}}

Warming seas and changing weather patterns are affecting fish stocks and making fishing more dangerous.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/7/climate-change-pushes-malaysias-coastal-fishermen-away-from-the-sea |title=Climate change pushes Malaysia’s coastal fishermen away from the sea |author=Patrick Lee |work=Aljazeera |date=7 March 2024 |access-date=18 April 2024}}</ref> Communities most exposed to the impact of climate change are poorer, including those involved in manual labour, agriculture, and fisheries. The impacts of climate change are thus expected to reinforce existing inequality, both in impact and in the ability to adapt.<ref name="WBADB2021"/>{{rp|22}}

==Mitigation==
{{Further|Malaysian Green Transition|Energy policy of Malaysia}}
The [[International Renewable Energy Agency]] predicted in 2014 that Malaysia might reach just over 50% of its electricity production from renewables by 2030.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2014/IRENA_REmap_Report_June_2014.pdf?la=en&hash=1486062A8D819F59D3D497E0CD73C8FA69EAD2F4 |title=REmap 2030 |publisher=International Renewable Energy Agency |date=June 2014 |access-date=9 October 2021 |page=84}}</ref>

In 2021, the government announced the goal of reaching [[Carbon neutrality|net zero emissions]] by 2050 in the [[Twelfth Malaysia Plan]]. Prime Minister [[Ismail Sabri Yaakob]] also said that Malaysia would [[Coal phase-out|not build any new coal power plants]], would expand [[Electric vehicle charging network|electric vehicle infrastructure]], and introduce a blue economic blueprint for coastal development.<ref>{{Cite web|title=12th Malaysia Plan: What you need to know about the 2050 carbon neutral goal and other green measures|url=https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/malaysia-12th-plan-carbon-neutrality-2050-green-growth-ismail-sabri-2206756|access-date=2021-11-19|website=CNA|language=en}}</ref>

An attempt to sell 2 million hectares of forest in Sabah as [[carbon offset]] credits stalled in 2022 amid local opposition following a lack of consultation and questions as to where profits would go.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://news.mongabay.com/2022/02/malaysian-officials-dampen-prospects-for-giant-secret-carbon-deal-in-sabah/ |title=Malaysian officials dampen prospects for giant, secret carbon deal in Sabah |last=Cannon |first=John C. |work=Mongabay |date=10 February 2022 |access-date=24 February 2022}}</ref>

==Adaptation==
[[Climate resilience]] measures were included in the [[Tenth Malaysia Plan|Tenth]] and [[Eleventh Malaysia Plan]]s.<ref name="WBADB2021"/>{{rp|3}} The government states it has invested in the health service in anticipation of an expected 144% increase in the population at risk of [[malaria]], and expected increases in [[dengue]], [[diarrhea|diarrhoea]], and [[waterborne diseases]].<ref name="WBADB2021"/>{{rp|23}}

Adaptation measures such as improving [[Levee|dikes]] would greatly reduce the impact of sea level rise on coastal communities within this century.<ref name="WHO2015"/>{{rp|3}}

===Policies===
[[File:Secretary Kerry Meets With Malaysian Energy and Environment Minister Junaidi at COP21 in Paris (23655804665).jpg|thumb|Malaysian Energy and Environment Minister [[Wan Junaidi]] meeting US Secretary of State [[John Kerry]] at [[COP21]].]]
Malaysia ratified the [[United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change]] in 1994, and the [[Kyoto Protocol]] in 2002. A National Policy on Climate Change was enacted in 2009, along with a National Renewable Energy Policy.<ref name="WHO2015"/>{{rp|7}} Around this time Malaysia pledged a 40% reduction in carbon intensity by 2020 compared to 2005,<ref name="WHO2015"/>{{rp|1}} and the Renewable Energy Act was adopted in 2011 alongside the Sustainable Energy Development Authority Act.<ref name="WHO2015"/>{{rp|7}}

In the late 20th century, energy policy centred around diversification for [[energy security]]. Renewable energy became more prominent in the 21st century, becoming part of official policy in the 2016–2020 Eleventh Malaysia Plan, alongside the 2016–2025 National Energy Efficiency Action Plan.<ref name="2021Norasyiqin"/>

Malaysia ratified the [[Paris Agreement]] on 16 November 2016, while submitting its first [[Nationally Determined Contribution]]. An Intended Nationally Determined Contribution had previously been submitted on 27 November 2015.<ref name="WBADB2021"/>{{rp|3}}<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/Malaysia%20First/Malaysia%20NDC%20Updated%20Submission%20to%20UNFCCC%20July%202021%20final.pdf |title=Malaysia's Update of its First Nationally Determined Contribution |publisher=UNFCCC |access-date=14 October 2021}}</ref> The Second National Communication to the UNFCCC emphasises improved [[Water resource management]].<ref name="WBADB2021"/>{{rp|16}}

In 2018, the government announced a target for 20% [[Energy policy of Malaysia|renewable energy]] by 2025.  Hydropower had grown from 5% of the energy mix in 2010 to 17% in 2017, matching much of the increased demand during that time. Solar power has become more used as its price has decreased, such as along the [[North–South Expressway (Malaysia)|North–South Expressway]]. There is growing interest in [[biomass]] from agricultural waste.<ref name="2021Norasyiqin"/>

Emission data collected by the Department of Environment is not publicly released.<ref name="2021Norasyiqin"/>

== See also ==
{{Commons category}}
* [[Environmental issues in Malaysia]]
* [[Plug-in electric vehicles in Malaysia]]
* [[Langkawi Declaration]]
* [[Climate change in Indonesia]]

==References==
{{Reflist}}

==External links==
* {{cite web |url=https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/southeast-asia-coal-consumption-by-country-2010-and-2019 |title=Southeast Asia coal consumption by country, 2010 and 2019 |publisher=International Energy Agency (IEA)}}
* {{cite web |url=https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/47552310-d697-498c-b112-d987f36abf34/Southeast_Asia_Energy_Outlook_2019.pdf |title=Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2019 |publisher=International Energy Agency (IEA) |date=October 2019}}
* {{cite web |url=https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/malaysia |title=Malaysia Country Summary |publisher=World Bank Group Climate Change Knowledge Portal}}
* {{cite journal |url=https://ourworldindata.org/co2/country/malaysia |title=Malaysia: CO2 Country Profile |last1=Ritchie |first1=Hannah |author-link=Hannah Ritchie |last2=Roser |first2=Max |author2-link=Max Roser |journal=Our World in Data|date=11 May 2020 }}
* {{Cite web|title=CO2 Emissions: Malaysia|url=https://www.climatetrace.org/inventory|website=[[Climate Trace]]}}
* {{cite web |url=https://www.st.gov.my/ms/contents/presentations/national_energy_security_conference_2012/slide7%20-the%20renewable%20energy%20road%20map_seda.pdf |title=The Renewable Energy Roadmap |publisher=Sustainable Energy Development Authority Malaysia |date=28 February 2012}}
* {{cite web |url=https://www.pmo.gov.my/ms/2019/07/pelan-tindakan-kecekapan-tenaga-negara/ |title=National Energy Efficiency Action Plan |publisher=Prime Minister’s Office |date=2015}}
* {{cite web |url=https://unfccc.int/documents?search2=&search3=&f%5B0%5D=country%3A1193 |title=Documents submitted by Malaysia |publisher=[[UNFCCC]]}}

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[[Category:Climate change in Malaysia| ]]
[[Category:Environmental issues in Malaysia]]