Topple rate: Difference between revisions
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{{Short description|Measure of how often market leaders lose leadership}} |
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'''Topple rate''' is measure of how often the leading companies in a particular industry changes. It is defined as the probability that a firm in the industry, already in the top 20% in revenue, will drop out of this revenue leadership position within the next five years.<ref name=HBR>{{cite web |last1=Viguerie |first1=Patrick and Caroline Thompson |title=The Faster They Fall |url=https://hbr.org/2005/03/the-faster-they-fall |website=hbr.org |publisher=Harvard Business Review |access-date=20 September 2019}}</ref> The topple rate is one method of measuring overall competition in a particular industry; higher topple rates are often viewed as indicating a strong market with healthy economic activity. The term's invention is credited to [[McKinsey]] consultant Patrick Viguerie.<ref>{{cite web |last1=Anders |first1=George |title=Countrywide Finds No. 1 Spot Isn't Easy |url=https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB118895249219517566 |website=wsj.com |publisher=The Wall Street Journal |access-date=20 September 2019 |date=5 September 2007}}</ref> |
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'''Topple rate''' is a name of a ratio of speed at which firms lose their leadership positions. |
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Modern industries have increasingly taken advantage of advances in technology and globalization to drive significant increases in productivity, but these changes also more easily enable new competitors and new innovations. These competitors often have lower costs, lower return requirements, or cheaper or imitation products. Topple rates across all industries doubled between 1972 and 2002, even when controlling for acquisitions of previous industry leaders; including them in the data showed that the overall rate actually tripled.<ref name=HBR/> At the peak of the [[Great Depression]] in 1937, companies listed on the [[S&P 500]] had an average lifespan of 75 years. By 2011, that figure had fallen to 18 years, a reduction in lifespan of 76%.<ref>{{cite web |last1=Hagel |first1=John |title=Edge Perspectives |url=https://edgeperspectives.typepad.com/edge_perspectives/2014/06/the-disruption-debate.html |website=typepad.com |access-date=20 September 2019}}</ref> |
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For example, the minicomputer industry began, grew up, got big, profitable, smug, senile and died in 20 years from [[1975]] to [[1995]]. [[Digital Equipment Corporation]] is a prime exemplar. In this case the topple rate of the minicomputer industry was 20 years. |
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In 2011, a study by [[Deloitte]] of 20,000 firms from 1965 to 2010 showed an overall doubling of the topple rate, though the effect occurred at different speeds across various industries. Those least affected by the increase in topple rate tended to be those more heavily regulated, such as aerospace, health care, and defense.<ref>{{cite web |last1=Denning |first1=Steve |title=Shift Index 2011: The Most Important Business Study – Ever? |url=https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevedenning/2012/01/25/shift-index-2011-the-most-important-business-study-ever/#6cbabd0d3a6e |work=Forbes |access-date=20 September 2019 |date=12 January 2012}}</ref> However, rapid change can occur even in these industries if there are fundamental shifts in regulations or other disruptive forces.<ref>{{cite web |last1=Buescher |first1=Brendan and Patrick Viguerie |title=How US healthcare companies can thrive amid disruption |url=https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/healthcare-systems-and-services/our-insights/how-us-healthcare-companies-can-thrive-amid-disruption |website=mckinsey.com |publisher=McKinsey & Company |access-date=20 September 2019}}</ref> |
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Topple rate is especially frequently used in fields of technological business. |
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==References== |
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{{reflist}} |
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[[Red Queen's race]] for evolutionary similarities. To maintain a leadership position, an industry must change at the same or faster rate than competing industries. |
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{{DEFAULTSORT:Topple Rate}} |
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[[Category:History of business]] |
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Latest revision as of 02:49, 27 November 2022
Topple rate is measure of how often the leading companies in a particular industry changes. It is defined as the probability that a firm in the industry, already in the top 20% in revenue, will drop out of this revenue leadership position within the next five years.[1] The topple rate is one method of measuring overall competition in a particular industry; higher topple rates are often viewed as indicating a strong market with healthy economic activity. The term's invention is credited to McKinsey consultant Patrick Viguerie.[2]
Modern industries have increasingly taken advantage of advances in technology and globalization to drive significant increases in productivity, but these changes also more easily enable new competitors and new innovations. These competitors often have lower costs, lower return requirements, or cheaper or imitation products. Topple rates across all industries doubled between 1972 and 2002, even when controlling for acquisitions of previous industry leaders; including them in the data showed that the overall rate actually tripled.[1] At the peak of the Great Depression in 1937, companies listed on the S&P 500 had an average lifespan of 75 years. By 2011, that figure had fallen to 18 years, a reduction in lifespan of 76%.[3]
In 2011, a study by Deloitte of 20,000 firms from 1965 to 2010 showed an overall doubling of the topple rate, though the effect occurred at different speeds across various industries. Those least affected by the increase in topple rate tended to be those more heavily regulated, such as aerospace, health care, and defense.[4] However, rapid change can occur even in these industries if there are fundamental shifts in regulations or other disruptive forces.[5]
References
[edit]- ^ a b Viguerie, Patrick and Caroline Thompson. "The Faster They Fall". hbr.org. Harvard Business Review. Retrieved 20 September 2019.
- ^ Anders, George (5 September 2007). "Countrywide Finds No. 1 Spot Isn't Easy". wsj.com. The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 20 September 2019.
- ^ Hagel, John. "Edge Perspectives". typepad.com. Retrieved 20 September 2019.
- ^ Denning, Steve (12 January 2012). "Shift Index 2011: The Most Important Business Study – Ever?". Forbes. Retrieved 20 September 2019.
- ^ Buescher, Brendan and Patrick Viguerie. "How US healthcare companies can thrive amid disruption". mckinsey.com. McKinsey & Company. Retrieved 20 September 2019.
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