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{{short description|Contact binary star system}}
{{Starbox begin
{{Starbox begin
|name= KIC 9832227
|name= KIC 9832227
}}{{Starbox image
}}
{{Starbox image
|image=[[File:KIC9832227.png|250px]]
|image=[[File:KIC9832227.png|250px]]
|caption= KIC 9832227 (circled)
|caption= KIC 9832227 (circled)
}}
}}{{Starbox observe
{{Starbox observe
| epoch= [[Epoch (astronomy)#Julian years and J2000|J2000]]
| epoch= [[Epoch (astronomy)#Julian years and J2000|J2000]]
| ra= {{RA|19|29|15.950}}<ref name=dr3/>
| ra= {{RA|19|29|15.948}}<ref name=2MASS>{{cite journal|title=2MASS All-Sky Catalog of Point Sources|date=2003|journal=VizieR On-line Data Catalog|volume=2246|author1=Cutri, R. M.|bibcode=2003yCat.2246....0C}}</ref>
| dec= {{DEC|+46|37|19.89}}<ref name=2MASS/>
| dec= {{DEC|+46|37|19.86}}<ref name=dr3/>
| appmag_v=12.27 – 12.46<ref name="AAVSO" />
| appmag_v=12.27 – 12.46<ref name="AAVSO" />
| constell=[[Cygnus (constellation)|Cygnus]]
| constell=[[Cygnus (constellation)|Cygnus]]
}}
⚫
}}{{Starbox astrometry
{{Starbox character
|dist_ly=1843
|dist_pc=565<ref name=Molnar2/>
| class=K2III/IV<ref name=frasca2016/>
| variable=[[Eclipsing binary|Eclipsing]]<ref name="Kinemuchi, Karen" />
}}
⚫
{{Starbox astrometry
| radial_v=
| prop_mo_ra=−9.505<ref name=dr3/>
| prop_mo_dec=−5.718<ref name=dr3/>
| parallax=1.5798
| p_error=0.0134
| parallax_footnote=<ref name=dr3/>
| absmag_v=
}}
}}
{{Starbox orbit
{{Starbox orbit
|reference=<ref name=Molnar2/>
|reference=<ref name=Molnar2/>
|period_unitless=0.45796151 days
|period_unitless=0.4282579 days
|axis_unitless={{solar radius|2.992}}
|axis_unitless={{solar radius|2.992}}
|inclination=53.2
|inclination=53.2
Line 22: Line 35:
}}
}}
{{Starbox detail
{{Starbox detail
|source=<ref name=Molnar2>{{cite journal|title=A prediction of a luminous red nova eruption|author1=Molnar, Lawrence A.|author2=Van Noord, Daniel M.|author3=Steenwyk, Steven D.|author4=Spedden, Chris J.|author5=Kinemuchi, Karen|journal=American Astronomical Society|volume=225|pages=415.05|number=225|date=2015|bibcode=2015AAS...22541505M|url=http://www.calvin.edu/academic/phys/observatory/MergingStar/MolnarEtAl2017.pdf|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20170107165101/https://www.calvin.edu/academic/phys/observatory/MergingStar/MolnarEtAl2017.pdf|archivedate=7 January 2017}}</ref>
|source=<ref name=Molnar2>{{cite journal|title=A prediction of a luminous red nova eruption|author1=Molnar, Lawrence A.|author2=Van Noord, Daniel M.|author3=Steenwyk, Steven D.|author4=Spedden, Chris J.|author5=Kinemuchi, Karen|journal=American Astronomical Society|volume=225|pages=415.05|number=225|date=2015|bibcode=2015AAS...22541505M|url=http://www.calvin.edu/academic/phys/observatory/MergingStar/MolnarEtAl2017.pdf|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170107165101/https://www.calvin.edu/academic/phys/observatory/MergingStar/MolnarEtAl2017.pdf|archive-date=7 January 2017}}</ref>
|component1=A
|component1=A
|mass=1.395
|mass=1.395
Line 46: Line 59:
}}
}}
{{Starbox end}}
{{Starbox end}}
'''KIC 9832227''' is a [[contact binary]] star system<ref name="Kinemuchi, Karen" /> in the constellation [[Cygnus (constellation)|Cygnus]], located about 1,940 ± 30 [[light-year]]s away.<ref name=molnar/> It is also identified as an [[eclipsing binary]] with an [[orbital period]] of almost 11 hours.<ref name="Kinemuchi, Karen" /> In 2017, the system was predicted to result in a [[stellar collision|merger]] in 2022.2 (± 0.6 years), producing a [[luminous red nova]] (LRN) reaching an [[apparent magnitude]] of 2.<ref name=molnar/> The LRN would remain visible to the naked eye for roughly a month. The merger of the two stellar cores was predicted to give birth to a new, hotter, more massive [[Main sequence|main-sequence]] star. However, a reanalysis of the data in September 2018 revealed that the prediction had been based on a wrongly-timed observation, negating the predicted merger.<ref name=Molnar2018/><ref name=Socia2018/><ref name=Parks2018/>
'''KIC 9832227''' is a [[contact binary]] star system in the constellation [[Cygnus (constellation)|Cygnus]], located about 2,060 [[light-year]]s away. It is also identified as an [[eclipsing binary]] with an [[orbital period]] of almost 11 hours.<ref name="Kinemuchi, Karen" />


==Incorrect 2022 merger prediction==
⚫
The period of the variations in KIC 9832227 has been observed to be growing shorter since 2013, leading to the prediction of the merger in 2022.<ref>{{cite web|last1=Carlisle|first1=Camille|title=Paired Stars in Cygnus En Route to Merger|url=http://www.skyandtelescope.com/uncategorized/stars-en-route-to-merger/|publisher=[[Sky and Telescope]]|accessdate=12 January 2017|date=6 January 2017}}</ref> In September 2018, it was announced that the original prediction was based on a timing offset of 12 hours in one of the datasets. This shows that the period had actually been increasing up to about 2008. The cause for the period variation is still unknown, but it is unlikely that the system will end in a merger at the predicted time.<ref name=Molnar2018/><ref name=Socia2018/><ref name=Socia2018b/>
[[File:KIC9832227LightCurve.png|thumb|left|A light curve for KIC 9832227, plotted from ''[[Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite|TESS]]'' data<ref name=MAST/>]]
In 2017, the system was predicted to result in a [[stellar collision|merger]] in 2022.2 (± 0.6 years), producing a [[luminous red nova]] (LRN) reaching an [[apparent magnitude]] of 2,<ref name=molnar/> or about the brightness of [[Polaris]], the North Star. The LRN would remain visible to the naked eye for roughly a month. The merger of the two stellar cores was predicted to give birth to a new, hotter, more massive [[Main sequence|main-sequence]] star. However, a reanalysis of the data in September 2018 revealed that the prediction had been based on a wrongly timed observation, negating the predicted merger.<ref name=Molnar2018/><ref name=Socia2018/><ref name=Parks2018/>

⚫
The period of the variations in KIC 9832227 has been observed to be growing shorter since 2013, leading to the prediction of the merger in or around 2022.<ref>{{cite web|last1=Carlisle|first1=Camille|title=Paired Stars in Cygnus En Route to Merger|url=http://www.skyandtelescope.com/uncategorized/stars-en-route-to-merger/|publisher=[[Sky and Telescope]]|access-date=12 January 2017|date=6 January 2017}}</ref> In September 2018, it was announced that the original prediction was based on a dataset which timing had been erroneously offset by 12 hours—an error which appeared to exaggerate the decay rate of the orbital period. Correcting for the error shows that the period had actually been increasing up to about 2008. The cause for the period variation is still unknown, but it was determined the system would not be merging at the predicted time.<ref name=Molnar2018/><ref name=Socia2018/><ref name=Socia2018b/>


== See also ==
== See also ==
* [[Luminous red nova]]
* [[Stellar collision]]
* [[Stellar collision]]


== References ==
== References ==
{{Reflist|25em|refs=
{{Reflist|25em|refs=

<ref name=dr3>{{cite Gaia DR3|2128318232616057856}}</ref>


<ref name=Parks2018>{{cite web|url=http://www.astronomy.com/news/2018/09/two-stars-will-not-merge-and-explode-into-red-fury-in-2022|title=Two stars will NOT merge and explode into red fury in 2022|first=Jake |last=Parks|date=7 September 2018|website=astronomy.com}}</ref>
<ref name=Parks2018>{{cite web|url=http://www.astronomy.com/news/2018/09/two-stars-will-not-merge-and-explode-into-red-fury-in-2022|title=Two stars will NOT merge and explode into red fury in 2022|first=Jake |last=Parks|date=7 September 2018|website=astronomy.com}}</ref>


<ref name=Molnar2018>{{cite web|last1=Molnar|first1=Lawrence A.|url=http://www.calvin.edu/academic/phys/observatory/MergingStar/2018Update.html|title=Supplementary material to Calvin College press release "Team of researchers challenge bold astronomical prediction", September 7, 2018|website=calvin.edu|date=7 September 2018|access-date=8 September 2018}}</ref>
<ref name=Molnar2018>{{cite web|last1=Molnar|first1=Lawrence A.|url=http://www.calvin.edu/academic/phys/observatory/MergingStar/2018Update.html|title=Supplementary material to Calvin College press release "Team of researchers challenge bold astronomical prediction", September 7, 2018|website=calvin.edu|date=7 September 2018|access-date=8 September 2018|archive-date=16 December 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181216000942/http://www.calvin.edu/academic/phys/observatory/MergingStar/2018Update.html|url-status=dead}}</ref>

<ref name=frasca2016>{{cite journal |bibcode=2016A&A...594A..39F |title=Activity indicators and stellar parameters of the Kepler targets. An application of the ROTFIT pipeline to LAMOST-Kepler stellar spectra |last1=Frasca |first1=A. |last2=Molenda-Żakowicz |first2=J. |last3=De Cat |first3=P. |last4=Catanzaro |first4=G. |last5=Fu |first5=J. N. |last6=Ren |first6=A. B. |last7=Luo |first7=A. L. |last8=Shi |first8=J. R. |last9=Wu |first9=Y. |last10=Zhang |first10=H. T. |journal=Astronomy and Astrophysics |date=2016 |volume=594 |doi=10.1051/0004-6361/201628337 |arxiv=1606.09149 |s2cid=119283349 }}</ref>


<ref name=Socia2018>{{cite web|url=https://calvin.edu/news/archive/team-of-researchers-challenge-bold-astronomical-prediction|title=Team of researchers challenge bold astronomical prediction|first=Matt |last=Kucinski|website=calvin.edu|date=7 September 2018|access-date=8 September 2018}}</ref>
<ref name=Socia2018>{{cite web|url=https://calvin.edu/news/archive/team-of-researchers-challenge-bold-astronomical-prediction|title=Team of researchers challenge bold astronomical prediction|first=Matt |last=Kucinski|website=calvin.edu|date=7 September 2018|access-date=8 September 2018}}</ref>


<ref name=Socia2018b>{{cite journal|title=KIC 9832227: Using Vulcan Data to Negate the 2022 Red Nova Merger Prediction|first1=Quentin J.|last1=Socia|first2=William F.|last2=Welsh|first3=Donald R.|last3=Short|first4=Jerome A.|last4=Orosz|first5=Ronald J.|last5=Angione|first6=Gur|last6=Windmiller|first7=Douglas A.|last7=Caldwell|first8=Natalie M.|last8=Batalha|journal=Astrophysical Journal Letters|date=11 September 2018}}</ref>
<ref name=Socia2018b>{{cite journal|title=KIC 9832227: Using Vulcan Data to Negate the 2022 Red Nova Merger Prediction|first1=Quentin J.|last1=Socia|first2=William F.|last2=Welsh|first3=Donald R.|last3=Short|first4=Jerome A.|last4=Orosz|first5=Ronald J.|last5=Angione|first6=Gur|last6=Windmiller|first7=Douglas A.|last7=Caldwell|first8=Natalie M.|last8=Batalha|journal=Astrophysical Journal Letters|date=11 September 2018|volume=864|issue=2|pages=L32|doi=10.3847/2041-8213/aadc0d|arxiv=1809.02771|bibcode=2018ApJ...864L..32S|s2cid=56134618 |doi-access=free }}</ref>

⚫
<ref name="AAVSO">{{cite web |url=http://www.aavso.org/vsx/index.php?view=detail.top&oid=169823|title=ASAS J192916+4637.3|publisher=[[American Association of Variable Star Observers|AAVSO]]|access-date=7 January 2017}}</ref>


⚫
<ref name = "Kinemuchi, Karen">{{Cite arXiv|last=Kinemuchi|first=Karen|date=2013-10-01|title=To Pulsate or to Eclipse? Status of KIC 9832227 Variable Star |class=astro-ph.SR|eprint=1310.0544 }}</ref>
⚫
<ref name="AAVSO">{{cite web |url=http://www.aavso.org/vsx/index.php?view=detail.top&oid=169823|title=ASAS J192916+4637.3|date=|website= |publisher=[[American Association of Variable Star Observers|AAVSO]]|access-date=7 January 2017|quote=}}</ref>


<ref name=MAST>{{cite web |title=MAST: Barbara A. Mikulski Archive for Space Telescopes |url=https://mast.stsci.edu/portal/Mashup/Clients/Mast/Portal.html |publisher=Space Telescope Science Institute |access-date=8 December 2021}}</ref>
⚫
<ref name = "Kinemuchi, Karen">{{Cite journal|last=Kinemuchi|first=Karen|date=2013-10-01|title=To Pulsate or to Eclipse? Status of KIC 9832227 Variable Star|volume=1310|pages=arXiv:1310.0544|arxiv=1310.0544|bibcode = 2013arXiv1310.0544K }}</ref>


<ref name=molnar>{{cite journal|bibcode=2017AAS...22941704M|title=KIC 9832227: A red nova precursor|journal=American Astronomical Society|volume=229|pages=417.04|author1=Molnar|first1=Lawrence A.|last2=Van Noord|first2=Daniel|last3=Kinemuchi|first3=Karen|last4=Smolinski|first4=Jason P.|last5=Alexander|first5=Cara E.|last6=Kobulnicky|first6=Henry A.|last7=Cook|first7=Evan M.|last8=Jang|first8=Byoungchan|last9=Steenwyk|first9=Steven D.|year=2017}}</ref>
<ref name=molnar>{{cite journal|bibcode=2017AAS...22941704M|title=KIC 9832227: A red nova precursor|journal=American Astronomical Society|volume=229|pages=417.04|last1=Molnar|first1=Lawrence A.|last2=Van Noord|first2=Daniel|last3=Kinemuchi|first3=Karen|last4=Smolinski|first4=Jason P.|last5=Alexander|first5=Cara E.|last6=Kobulnicky|first6=Henry A.|last7=Cook|first7=Evan M.|last8=Jang|first8=Byoungchan|last9=Steenwyk|first9=Steven D.|year=2017}}</ref>


}}
}}


==External links==
==External links==
*{{cite web|last1=Molnar|first1=Lawrence|display-authors=etal|title=Prediction of a Red Nova Outburst in KIC 9832227|url=http://www.calvin.edu/academic/phys/observatory/MergingStar/MolnarEtAl2017.pdf|website=Calvin College|publisher=Calvin College Group|edition=draft|date=4 January 2017|accessdate=8 January 2017|url-status=dead|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20170107165101/http://www.calvin.edu/academic/phys/observatory/MergingStar/MolnarEtAl2017.pdf|archivedate=7 January 2017}}
*{{cite web|last1=Molnar|first1=Lawrence|display-authors=etal|title=Prediction of a Red Nova Outburst in KIC 9832227|url=http://www.calvin.edu/academic/phys/observatory/MergingStar/MolnarEtAl2017.pdf|website=Calvin College|publisher=Calvin College Group|edition=draft|date=4 January 2017|access-date=8 January 2017|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170107165101/http://www.calvin.edu/academic/phys/observatory/MergingStar/MolnarEtAl2017.pdf|archive-date=7 January 2017}}
*{{cite web|last1=Knapton|first1=Sarah|title=Spectacular collision of suns will create new star in night sky in 2022|url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2017/01/06/spectacular-collision-suns-will-create-new-star-night-sky-2022/|website=The Daily Telegraph|publisher=[[Telegraph Media Group]]|accessdate=7 January 2017}}
*{{cite news|last1=Knapton|first1=Sarah|title=Spectacular collision of suns will create new star in night sky in 2022|url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2017/01/06/spectacular-collision-suns-will-create-new-star-night-sky-2022/|newspaper=The Telegraph|date=6 January 2017|access-date=7 January 2017}}
*{{cite web|last1=Byrd|first1=Deborah|title=Star predicted to explode in 2022|url=http://earthsky.org/space/star-predicted-to-explode-in-2022|website=EarthSky|publisher=EarthSky Communications|accessdate=7 January 2017}}
*{{cite web|last1=Byrd|first1=Deborah|title=Star predicted to explode in 2022|url=http://earthsky.org/space/star-predicted-to-explode-in-2022|website=EarthSky|date=6 January 2017|publisher=EarthSky Communications|access-date=7 January 2017}}
*{{cite web|last1=Masi|first1=Gianluca|title=Star merging in KIC 9832227: a possible once-in-a-lifetime event|url=http://www.virtualtelescope.eu/2017/01/11/star-merging-in-kic-9832227-a-possible-once-in-a-lifetime-event/|website=Virtual Telescope Project|publisher=Virtual Telescope Project|accessdate=11 January 2017}}
*{{cite web|last1=Masi|first1=Gianluca|title=Star merging in KIC 9832227: a possible once-in-a-lifetime event|url=http://www.virtualtelescope.eu/2017/01/11/star-merging-in-kic-9832227-a-possible-once-in-a-lifetime-event/|website=Virtual Telescope Project|date=11 January 2017|access-date=11 January 2017}}


{{Stars of Cygnus}}
{{Stars of Cygnus}}
{{Portal bar|Astronomy|Stars|Spaceflight|Outer space|Solar System}}


[[Category:Cygnus (constellation)]]
[[Category:Cygnus (constellation)]]
[[Category:W Ursae Majoris variables]]
[[Category:W Ursae Majoris variables]]
[[Category:2MASS objects|J19291594+4637198]]
[[Category:2MASS objects|J19291594+4637198]]
[[Category:Kepler Input Catalog]]



{{multi-star-stub}}
{{multi-star-stub}}

Latest revision as of 04:00, 9 January 2024

KIC 9832227

KIC 9832227 (circled)
Observation data
Epoch J2000      Equinox J2000
Constellation Cygnus
Right ascension 19h 29m 15.950s[1]
Declination +46° 37′ 19.86″[1]
Apparent magnitude (V) 12.27 – 12.46[2]
Characteristics
Spectral type K2III/IV[3]
Variable type Eclipsing[4]
Astrometry
Proper motion (μ) RA: −9.505[1] mas/yr
Dec.: −5.718[1] mas/yr
Parallax (π)1.5798 ± 0.0134 mas[1]
Distance2,060 ± 20 ly
(633 ± 5 pc)
Orbit[5]
Period (P)0.4282579 days
Semi-major axis (a)2.992 R☉
Inclination (i)53.2°
Periastron epoch (T)2455688.49913
Details[5]
A
Mass1.395 M☉
Radius1.581 R☉
Luminosity2.609 L☉
Surface gravity (log g)4.19 cgs
Temperature5800 K
Rotational velocity (v sin i)149.7 km/s
B
Mass0.318 M☉
Radius0.830 R☉
Luminosity0.789 L☉
Surface gravity (log g)4.10 cgs
Temperature5920 K
Rotational velocity (v sin i)84.7 km/s
Other designations
2MASS J19291594+4637198, KIC 9832227, ASAS J192916+4637.3, GSC 03543-01211
Database references
SIMBADdata
KICdata

KIC 9832227 is a contact binary star system in the constellation Cygnus, located about 2,060 light-years away. It is also identified as an eclipsing binary with an orbital period of almost 11 hours.[4]

Incorrect 2022 merger prediction

[edit]
A light curve for KIC 9832227, plotted from TESS data[6]

In 2017, the system was predicted to result in a merger in 2022.2 (± 0.6 years), producing a luminous red nova (LRN) reaching an apparent magnitude of 2,[7] or about the brightness of Polaris, the North Star. The LRN would remain visible to the naked eye for roughly a month. The merger of the two stellar cores was predicted to give birth to a new, hotter, more massive main-sequence star. However, a reanalysis of the data in September 2018 revealed that the prediction had been based on a wrongly timed observation, negating the predicted merger.[8][9][10]

The period of the variations in KIC 9832227 has been observed to be growing shorter since 2013, leading to the prediction of the merger in or around 2022.[11] In September 2018, it was announced that the original prediction was based on a dataset which timing had been erroneously offset by 12 hours—an error which appeared to exaggerate the decay rate of the orbital period. Correcting for the error shows that the period had actually been increasing up to about 2008. The cause for the period variation is still unknown, but it was determined the system would not be merging at the predicted time.[8][9][12]

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^ a b c d e Vallenari, A.; et al. (Gaia collaboration) (2023). "Gaia Data Release 3. Summary of the content and survey properties". Astronomy and Astrophysics. 674: A1. arXiv:2208.00211. Bibcode:2023A&A...674A...1G. doi:10.1051/0004-6361/202243940. S2CID 244398875. Gaia DR3 record for this source at VizieR.
  2. ^ "ASAS J192916+4637.3". AAVSO. Retrieved 7 January 2017.
  3. ^ Frasca, A.; Molenda-Żakowicz, J.; De Cat, P.; Catanzaro, G.; Fu, J. N.; Ren, A. B.; Luo, A. L.; Shi, J. R.; Wu, Y.; Zhang, H. T. (2016). "Activity indicators and stellar parameters of the Kepler targets. An application of the ROTFIT pipeline to LAMOST-Kepler stellar spectra". Astronomy and Astrophysics. 594. arXiv:1606.09149. Bibcode:2016A&A...594A..39F. doi:10.1051/0004-6361/201628337. S2CID 119283349.
  4. ^ a b Kinemuchi, Karen (2013-10-01). "To Pulsate or to Eclipse? Status of KIC 9832227 Variable Star". arXiv:1310.0544 [astro-ph.SR].
  5. ^ a b Molnar, Lawrence A.; Van Noord, Daniel M.; Steenwyk, Steven D.; Spedden, Chris J.; Kinemuchi, Karen (2015). "A prediction of a luminous red nova eruption" (PDF). American Astronomical Society. 225 (225): 415.05. Bibcode:2015AAS...22541505M. Archived from the original (PDF) on 7 January 2017.
  6. ^ "MAST: Barbara A. Mikulski Archive for Space Telescopes". Space Telescope Science Institute. Retrieved 8 December 2021.
  7. ^ Molnar, Lawrence A.; Van Noord, Daniel; Kinemuchi, Karen; Smolinski, Jason P.; Alexander, Cara E.; Kobulnicky, Henry A.; Cook, Evan M.; Jang, Byoungchan; Steenwyk, Steven D. (2017). "KIC 9832227: A red nova precursor". American Astronomical Society. 229: 417.04. Bibcode:2017AAS...22941704M.
  8. ^ a b Molnar, Lawrence A. (7 September 2018). "Supplementary material to Calvin College press release "Team of researchers challenge bold astronomical prediction", September 7, 2018". calvin.edu. Archived from the original on 16 December 2018. Retrieved 8 September 2018.
  9. ^ a b Kucinski, Matt (7 September 2018). "Team of researchers challenge bold astronomical prediction". calvin.edu. Retrieved 8 September 2018.
  10. ^ Parks, Jake (7 September 2018). "Two stars will NOT merge and explode into red fury in 2022". astronomy.com.
  11. ^ Carlisle, Camille (6 January 2017). "Paired Stars in Cygnus En Route to Merger". Sky and Telescope. Retrieved 12 January 2017.
  12. ^ Socia, Quentin J.; Welsh, William F.; Short, Donald R.; Orosz, Jerome A.; Angione, Ronald J.; Windmiller, Gur; Caldwell, Douglas A.; Batalha, Natalie M. (11 September 2018). "KIC 9832227: Using Vulcan Data to Negate the 2022 Red Nova Merger Prediction". Astrophysical Journal Letters. 864 (2): L32. arXiv:1809.02771. Bibcode:2018ApJ...864L..32S. doi:10.3847/2041-8213/aadc0d. S2CID 56134618.
[edit]


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