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{{Infobox organization
{{short description|American economist}}
| name = The Institue for Integrated Transitions (IFIT)
⚫
{{Infobox economist
| established = {{start date and age|2012}}
| name = Robin Greenwood
| logo =
| school_tradition =
| successor =
| image =
| founders = Mark Freeman
| caption =
| birth_date = x
| founding_location =
| dissolved = <!-- or |defunct = --><!-- use {{end date and age|YYYY|MM|DD}} -->
| birth_place = x
| type = [[Non-governmental organization]]
| death_date =
| status = Charity
| death_place =
| purpose = Aid transitions to democracy
| institution = [[Harvard Business School]]
| headquarters = Barcelona, Spain
| field = [[Financial economics]], [[stock market]], [[financial bubbles]]
| coordinates = <!-- {{coord|LAT|LON|display=inline,title}} -->
| alma_mater = [[Massachusetts Institute of Technology]] (B.S.)<br />[[Harvard Business School]] (PHd.)
| key_people = [[Emmanuel Gyimah-Boadi]] (Chairman)<ref>{{Cite web |date=2022-06-15 |title=Institute for Integrated Transitions appoints Prof. Gyimah-Boadi as President of Board of Directors |url=https://citinewsroom.com/2022/06/institute-for-integrated-transitions-appoints-prof-gyimah-boadi-as-president-of-board-of-directors/ |access-date=2024-01-09 |website=Citinewsroom - Comprehensive News in Ghana |language=en-US}}</ref>
| influences =
| website = {{URL|www.ifit-transitions.org/}}
| influenced =
}}The '''Institute for Integrated Transitions (IFIT)''' is a [[Non-governmental organization|non-governmental organisation]] based in [[Barcelona]]. It focuses on helping states transition out of cycles of war, crisis and authoritarianism. The organisation played a key role in the [[Colombian peace process|Colombia-FARC accords]] in 2015, and is active in [[Afghanistan]], [[Libya]], [[Mexico]], [[Nigeria]], [[Sri Lanka]], [[Sudan]], [[Syria]], [[Ukraine]], [[Uzbekistan]], [[Venezuela]] and [[Zimbabwe]].
| contributions =
| awards =Jack Treynor Prize
| signature = <!-- file name only -->
| repec_prefix = | repec_id =
}}
'''Robin Greenwood''' (born x) is an American economist, and both the [[George Gund III|George Gund]] Professor of Finance and Banking and the [[James F. Rothenberg|Anne and James F. Rothenberg]] Faculty Fellow at [[Harvard Business School]]. He was formerly head of the school's [[Finance|finance unit]], and chair of the [[Harvard Business School|Behavioral Finance and Financial Stability project]]. He also serves on the Financial Advisory Roundtable of the [[Federal Reserve Bank of New York]].


Established by Mark Freeman in 2012 following the onset of the [[Arab Spring]], IFIT serves as a resource for local parties negotiating with adversaries, establishing short-term priorities and setting long-term goals. It hosts several initiatives and practice groups, notably their Law and Peace Practice Group, Inclusive Narrative Practice Group, and Transition Assistance Practice Group.
Greenwood is known for his work on behavioral and institutional finance, with a particular focus on [[Market anomaly|"macro-level" market inefficiencies]]. Other research has included the [[Stock market prediction|predictability of stock market bubbles]].


== Academia ==
== Objectives ==
Founded in 2012 after the Arab Spring, the institute aims to help fragile and conflict-affected states transition sustainably out of war, crisis or authoritarianism.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2020-05-11 |title=A Look Behind Closed Doors: Interview with Mark Freeman |url=https://hir.harvard.edu/a-look-behind-closed-doors-interview-with-mark-freeman/ |access-date=2024-01-09 |website=Harvard International Review |language=en |quote=The Institute for Integrated Transitions was set up at the onset of the Arab Spring. It was very much motivated by the idea of creating a think tank that would make easy and accessible key lessons about negotiations––and in particular transitions––available in the context of the Arab Spring, and more generally, to countries that might be emerging from conflict or authoritarian rule.}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Carlin |first=John |date=2016-09-27 |title=How the seeds of corruption are sown in Spain’s junior soccer leagues |url=https://english.elpais.com/elpais/2016/09/26/inenglish/1474892535_891447.html |access-date=2024-01-09 |website=EL PAÍS English |language=en |quote=the Institute for Integrated Transitions, which helps countries make the transition from war and dictatorship to peace}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |date=2017-11-09 |title=Constitutional reform, communications & political transformation: An interview with Mark Freeman |url=https://groundviews.org/2017/11/09/constitutional-reform-an-interview-with-mark-freeman/ |access-date=2024-01-09 |website=Groundviews |language=en-US}}</ref> It hosts policy and consensus-building lessons to support locally-led efforts at reducing polarisation and breaking cycles of conflict or repression.<ref name=":0">{{Cite web |title=What do we really know about polarization? Q&A with Mark Freeman |url=https://www.fordfoundation.org/work/learning/learning-reflections/what-do-we-really-know-about-polarization-qa-with-mark-freeman/ |access-date=2024-01-09 |website=Ford Foundation |language=en-US |quote=we launched the Global Initiative on Polarization to deepen understanding of the diverse causes and consequences of severe polarization in democratic and nondemocratic settings}}</ref>
Greenwood received a B.S. in [[Economics|Economics and Mathematics]] at [[MIT]] in 1998, before receiving his [[Ph.D.]] from [[Harvard University|Harvard]] in Economics in 2003.<ref name=":0">{{Cite web |date=2021-11-17 |title=State Street Announces Partnerships with MIT’s Antionette Schoar, Harvard’s Robin Greenwood to Advance Cryptocurrency and Macroeconomic Research Initiatives |url=https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20211117005845/en/State-Street-Announces-Partnerships-with-MIT%E2%80%99s-Antionette-Schoar-Harvard%E2%80%99s-Robin-Greenwood-to-Advance-Cryptocurrency-and-Macroeconomic-Research-Initiatives |access-date=2023-01-04 |website=www.businesswire.com |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Writer |first=Christina Pazzanese Harvard Staff |date=2020-04-27 |title=Shutdown threatens businesses, but reopening has its own challenges |url=https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/04/shutdown-threatens-businesses-but-reopening-has-its-own-challenges/ |access-date=2023-01-04 |website=Harvard Gazette |language=en-US}}</ref> During his Ph.D., Greenwood spent time as a post-doctoral Fellow at [[Harvard Business School]], before becoming an Assistant Professor of Business Administration there in 2003. He’s remained a member of the school’s faculty since, though was a [[Visiting scholar|Visiting Fellow]] at the [[London School of Economics]] in 2007, and a Schoen Scholar at [[Yale University]] in 2008. Greenwood became a full professor in 2012.<ref>{{Cite book |last=Materials |first=United States Congress House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure Subcommittee on Railroads, Pipelines, and Hazardous |url=https://books.google.com.uy/books?id=1gE1DABm6BsC&pg=PA37&dq=robin+greenwood+harvard&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjytcXd3az8AhX7pZUCHSmuCtcQ6AF6BAgCEAI |title=Investment in the Rail Industry: Hearing Before the Subcommittee on Railroads, Pipelines, and Hazardous Materials of the Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, House of Representatives, One Hundred Tenth Congress, Second Session, March 5, 2008 |date=2008 |publisher=U.S. Government Printing Office |isbn=978-0-16-083585-8 |page=37 |language=en |quote=And our final panelist is Mr. Robin Greenwood , Assistant Professor at the Harvard Business School .}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book |last=Kinlaw |first=William |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=Q7IzEAAAQBAJ&pg=PA1&dq=robin+greenwood+harvard&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjrhMzy3qz8AhXUr5UCHbaPBdM4FBDoAXoECAQQAg |title=Asset Allocation: From Theory to Practice and Beyond |last2=Kritzman |first2=Mark P. |last3=Turkington |first3=David |date=2021-07-27 |publisher=John Wiley & Sons |isbn=978-1-119-81771-0 |language=en}}</ref> He also spent time, between 2018 and 2021, as head of the Finance Unit at Harvard Business School, and was formerly chair of the Business Economics PhD program.<ref name=":0" />


Donors include the governments of Ireland, Norway, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Germany, Sweden, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the [[European Commission]]. Private donors include the [[Ford Foundation]], [[Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency|Sida]], [[Robert Bosch Stiftung]], the [[European Endowment for Democracy]], and the [[United Nations Development Programme]].
Greenwood is a member of the Financial Advisory Roundtable of the [[Federal Reserve Bank of New York]] alongside [[Viral Acharya]], [[Thomas Philippon]], [[John H. Cochrane]], [[Jeremy C. Stein]], [[Toni Whited]] and others, and serves as the Associate Editor of the Review of Financial Studies; a review he was formerly editor of.<ref name=":0" /><ref>{{Cite web |title=Financial Advisory Roundtable - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK |url=https://www.newyorkfed.org/aboutthefed/far.html |access-date=2023-01-04 |website=www.newyorkfed.org}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last= |title=Robin Greenwood in Reuters – The Review of Financial Studies |url=http://rfssfs.org/news/robin-greenwood-in-reuters/ |access-date=2023-01-04 |language=en-US |quote=RFS Editor Robin Greenwood’s paper is featured in Reuters in a piece titled, “Fed should keep trillions in bonds to provide stability: paper.”}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |date=2016-08-27 |title=Fed should keep trillions in bonds to provide stability: paper |language=en |work=Reuters |url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-research-bonds-idUSKCN1120HP |access-date=2023-01-04}}</ref>


== Research ==
== Organisation Structure ==
IFIT operates globally through a decentralised group of 300 experts working as members of staff or within governance bodies, thematic practice groups, country brain trusts, regional programmes or global initiatives.<ref>{{Cite web |last=LaReau |first=Renée |date=2021-05-20 |title=Master of global affairs students awarded Hesburgh and Offenheiser Fellowships |url=https://keough.nd.edu/master-of-global-affairs-students-awarded-hesburgh-and-offenheiser-fellowships/ |access-date=2024-01-09 |website=Keough School - University of Notre Dame |language=en-US}}</ref> It is headquartered in Barcelona.<ref>{{Cite news |last=Coll |first=Bernat |date=2016-09-30 |title=Freeman: “Si no se investiga el amaño, lo denunciaremos” |url=https://elpais.com/deportes/2016/09/30/actualidad/1475252920_760643.html |access-date=2024-01-09 |work=El País |language=es |issn=1134-6582}}</ref> It's a part of the [[United Nations|UN's Mediation Support Network]], alongside the Alliance for Peacebuilding, and the [[European Peacebuilding Liaison Office]]. Their international council includes [[John Carlin (journalist)|John Carlin]], [[Nasser Saidi]] and [[Shaharzad Akbar]].


=== 'Bubbles for Fama' ===
== Initiatives ==
Greenwood’s research focuses primarily on behavioural and institutional finance, with a specific view on [[Macroeconomics|macro-level market inefficiencies]]; notably [[monetary policy]], [[Stock market bubble|stock price bubbles]] and [[Financial crisis|predictable financial crises]].<ref>{{Cite web |last=Writer |first=Christina Pazzanese Harvard Staff |date=2018-02-06 |title=Harvard Business School’s Robin Greenwood discusses the stock market plunge |url=https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2018/02/harvard-business-schools-robin-greenwood-discusses-the-stock-market-plunge/ |access-date=2023-01-04 |website=Harvard Gazette |language=en-US |quote=The things I’ve worked on have been investor expectations, measurement of bubbles, and things like that. We did some work on trying to predict the end of bubbles.}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=Energy stocks are in a bubble — and here’s when they’re likely to crash |url=https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/energy-stocks-are-in-a-bubble-%E2%80%94-and-heres-when-theyre-likely-to-crash/ar-AA148jT4 |access-date=2023-01-04 |website=MSN |language=en-US |quote=The researchers found that the probability of a market sector crashing — defined as a drop of at least 40% over the subsequent two years — was correlated with its trailing two-year performance relative to the overall market.}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last= |date=2021-04-06 |title=Vital Signs: swaps, options and other derivatives aren't just for the financial elite |url=https://newsroom.unsw.edu.au/news/business-law/vital-signs-swaps-options-and-other-derivatives-arent-just-financial-elite |access-date=2023-01-04 |website=UNSW Newsroom}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Roche |first=Julia La |title=Harvard Business School Reviewed One Of Kyle Bass' Most Bearish Trades |url=https://www.businessinsider.com/one-of-kyle-bass-big-trades-gets-reviewed-by-harvard-2012-4 |access-date=2023-01-04 |website=Business Insider |language=en-US}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=kmenke |date=2021-07-07 |title=Market Bubbles Aren’t Entirely Irrational Exuberance |url=https://anderson-review.ucla.edu/market-bubbles-arent-entirely-irrational-exuberance/ |access-date=2023-01-04 |website=UCLA Anderson Review |language=en-US}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book |last=Roncal |first=Jose D. |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=dq00jgGgo74C&pg=PA56&dq=robin+greenwood+harvard&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjbxdPN3qz8AhV7rZUCHQv0DpY4ChDoAXoECAIQAg |title=The Big Gamble: Are You Investing Or Speculating? |last2=Abbo |first2=Jose N. |date=2008-11 |publisher=Wheatmark, Inc. |isbn=978-1-60494-199-9 |language=en}}</ref> His work on “Bubbles for Fama”, which defined a crash as a 40% drop within a two-year period and set parameters for the odds of crashes relative to returns, has been frequently used looking at [[Tesla, Inc.|Tesla]] and [[Bitcoin]] as bubbles.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Hulbert |first=Mark |title=Bitcoin’s role in retirement portfolios |url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoins-role-in-retirement-portfolios-2021-02-26 |access-date=2023-01-04 |website=MarketWatch |language=EN-US |quote=In making this prediction I am following the lead of an academic study entitled “Bubbles for Fama,” which appeared several years ago in the Journal of Financial Economics. Its authors were Robin Greenwood, a finance and banking professor at Harvard Business School and chair of its Behavioral Finance and Financial Stability project}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Hulbert |first=Mark |title=How we know that Tesla is a bubble that is going to pop |url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-we-know-that-tesla-is-a-bubble-that-is-going-to-pop-2020-02-04 |access-date=2023-01-04 |website=MarketWatch |language=EN-US}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Hulbert |first=Mark |title=You shouldn’t believe all this talk about a stock-market bubble about to burst — here’s why |url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/you-shouldnt-believe-all-this-talk-about-a-stock-market-bubble-about-to-burst-heres-why-2020-11-03 |access-date=2023-01-04 |website=MarketWatch |language=EN-US}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=Bubbles for Fama |url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DG0CBa9L43w}}</ref>


=== Brain Trusts and Colombia peace process ===
Other work includes the role of institutional finance and the 'financialisation' of the economy, as well as private sector impacts on the economy.{{efn|Greenwood wrote an article on the impact of private sector reliance on short-term debt.}}<ref>{{Cite web |last=Bartlett |first=Bruce |date=2013-06-11 |title='Financialization' as a Cause of Economic Malaise |url=https://archive.nytimes.com/economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/06/11/financialization-as-a-cause-of-economic-malaise/ |access-date=2023-01-04 |website=Economix Blog |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=Can The Government Discourage Short-term Borrowing By The Private Sector? |url=https://www.forbesindia.com/article/harvard/can-the-government-discourage-shortterm-borrowing-by-the-private-sector/33076/1 |access-date=2023-01-04 |website=Forbes India |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=Was Unconventional Monetary Policy a Success? |url=https://www.chicagobooth.edu/review/was-unconventional-monetary-policy-success |access-date=2023-01-04 |website=The University of Chicago Booth School of Business |language=en}}</ref> For his work on an extrapolative capital asset pricing model, the Institute for Quantitative Research in Finance awarded him the [[Jack L. Treynor|Jack Treynor]] Prize in 2014.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Q Group - Jack Treynor Prize |url=https://www.q-group.org/Jack-Treynor-Prize |access-date=2023-01-04 |website=www.q-group.org}}</ref>
The institute introduced brain trusts in 2016, with 15-18 members with expertise and influence.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Nigeria |first=Guardian |date=2021-10-07 |title=Benue pensioners protest against alleged unpaid pension, gratuity |url=https://guardian.ng/news/benue-pensioners-protest-against-alleged-unpaid-pension-gratuity/ |access-date=2024-01-09 |website=The Guardian Nigeria News - Nigeria and World News |language=en-US}}</ref><ref name=":1">{{Cite web |title=Creating a Favorable Environment for Negotiations in Venezuela |url=https://www.wola.org/events/creating-favorable-environment-negotiations-venezuela/ |access-date=2024-01-09 |website=WOLA |language=en-US}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |date=2023-12-12 |title=Effectiveness of Humanitarian Exceptions to Sanctions: Lessons from the Syria Earthquake - Syrian Arab Republic {{!}} ReliefWeb |url=https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/effectiveness-humanitarian-exceptions-sanctions-lessons-syria-earthquake |access-date=2024-01-09 |website=reliefweb.int |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=The Peace or Justice dilemma in Ukraine - Fundación Rafael del Pino |url=https://frdelpino.es/en_gb/conference/the-peace-and-justice-dilemma-in-ukraine/ |access-date=2024-01-09 |website=Rafael del Pino Foundation |language=en-GB}}</ref> It was also heavily involved in the [[Colombian peace process|Colombia peace process]] after 2012, serving as the international counsel to the Colombian delegation during negotiations with the [[Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia|FARC]] rebel group in [[Havana]], leading to accords in December 2015.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2017-05-13 |title=Maduro y oposición buscan “amigos” en el extranjero |url=https://www.diariolasamericas.com/america-latina/informe-otalvora-maduro-y-oposicion-buscan-amigos-el-extranjero-n4121855 |access-date=2024-01-09 |website=diariolasamericas.com |language=es-US}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |date=2020-05-11 |title=A Look Behind Closed Doors: Interview with Mark Freeman |url=https://hir.harvard.edu/a-look-behind-closed-doors-interview-with-mark-freeman/ |access-date=2024-01-09 |website=Harvard International Review |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |date=2017-11-09 |title=Colombia, Sri Lanka and referendums: Interview with Juanita Goebertus |url=https://groundviews.org/2017/11/09/colombia-sri-lanka-and-referendums-interview-with-juanita-goebertus/ |access-date=2024-01-09 |website=Groundviews |language=en-US}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=tcruvellier |date=2018-10-30 |title=Mark Freeman: how you can negotiate justice and peace |url=https://www.justiceinfo.net/en/39378-mark-freeman-how-you-can-negotiate-justice-and-peace.html |access-date=2024-01-09 |website=JusticeInfo.net |language=en-US}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=Diàlegs a Casa: ‘Pau a Colòmbia’, amb Mark Freeman i David Bondia |url=http://americat.barcelona/ca/pau-colombia-mark-freeman-david-bondia |access-date=2024-01-09 |website=Casa Amèrica Catalunya}}</ref> The first brain trust was set up in the aftermath, and is used to facilitate policy discussions. Each receives policy support from IFIT to help achieve strategic goals, such as shaping policies and fostering alliances. IFIT also runs the Middle Belt Brain Trust in Nigeria and a brain trust in Venezuela.<ref name=":1" /><ref>{{Cite news |last=Attah |first=Solomon |date=28 Jun 2021 |title=PMB’s approach to insecurity reduce rates of poverty, unemployment, ensures peace – Sule |url=https://businessday.ng/politics/article/pmbs-approach-to-insecurity-reduce-rates-of-poverty-unemployment-ensures-peace-sule/}}</ref>


=== Initiatives ===
=== Behavioural Finance & Financial Stability ===
IFIT has several initiatives, global and regional. Globally, the Peace Treaty Initiative seeks to develop an international law on peace negotiation,<ref>{{Cite web |last=Jo |first=Hyeran |date=2023-10-10 |title=Peace in Sudan is elusive for any would-be mediators – but a new window of opportunity has opened for outside intervention |url=http://theconversation.com/peace-in-sudan-is-elusive-for-any-would-be-mediators-but-a-new-window-of-opportunity-has-opened-for-outside-intervention-212926 |access-date=2024-01-09 |website=The Conversation |language=en-US}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=BARCELONA |first=L. D. / |date=2016-05-27 |title=Mark Freeman: "Barcelona tiene el potencial para ser un centro de referencia para el bien común a nivel global" |url=https://www.elperiodico.com/es/barcelona/20160527/entrevista-mark-freeman-director-ifit-5163202 |access-date=2024-01-09 |website=elperiodico |language=es |quote=Beyond our international activities – such as the launch of the practical advisory group Law and Peace –, since September 2014 we have been collaborating with the BCN International Policy Sector Action Plan, which aims to make the city a place of attraction for NGOs}}</ref> the Global Initiative on Polarization seeks to propose a definition of what polarisation is and how to tackle its negative effects,<ref>{{Cite web |title=PressReader.com - Digital Newspaper & Magazine Subscriptions |url=https://www.pressreader.com/mexico/el-universal/20230909/282041921718454 |access-date=2024-01-09 |website=www.pressreader.com}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Torreón |first=El Siglo de |date=2023-09-09 |title=El debate sobre la polarización: una actualización |url=https://www.elsiglodetorreon.com.mx/noticia/2023/el-debate-sobre-la-polarizacion-una-actualizacion.html |access-date=2024-01-09 |website=www.elsiglodetorreon.com.mx |language=es}}</ref> in collaboration with [[Ford Foundation]], and the Initiative on Apex Court Appointments seeks to create a global protocol for the election of supreme court judges.<ref name=":0" /><ref>{{Cite web |date=2022-05-09 |title=Ford Foundation: frontline organizations and private/public partnerships hold keys to global COVID-19 recovery |url=https://www.fordfoundation.org/news-and-stories/news-and-press/news/ford-foundation-frontline-organizations-and-private-public-partnerships-hold-keys-to-global-covid-19-recovery/ |access-date=2024-01-09 |website=Ford Foundation |language=en-US |quote=The Global Initiative on Polarization – a unique multi-year collaboration between The Ford Foundation and the Institute for Integrated Transitions (IFIT) – aims to bring a more global, practice-driven and solution-oriented perspective to the complex problem of polarization. Ford’s Playbook recognizes this growing threat to democracy and peace, and highlights how stemming the rise of polarization is critical to an equitable recovery}}</ref>
Greenwood also spent time as the faculty director of the Behavioural Finance and Financial Stability project at Harvard Business School. The project, launched in July 2016, focuses on how best to ensure the stability of the financial system, and Greenwood oversaw research on bank capital and liquidity management, on the nature of [[Bank run|bank runs]] in the modern financial system, and on the unprecedented growth of the financial sector prior to the crisis;<ref>{{Cite web |title=About - Behavioral Finance & Financial Stability - Harvard Business School |url=https://www.hbs.edu/behavioral-finance-and-financial-stability/about/Pages/default.aspx |access-date=2023-01-04 |website=www.hbs.edu}}</ref> the perspective noted that ‘that financial instability often follows periods when financial institutions, like investors and policy makers, have underestimated risks’.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2020-09-24 |title=Financial Meltdowns Are More Predictable Than We Thought |url=http://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/financial-meltdowns-are-more-predictable-than-we-thought |access-date=2023-01-04 |website=HBS Working Knowledge |language=en}}</ref> Greenwood's later work in 'Predictable Financial Crises' concluded 'the combination of rapid credit growth and asset-price gains during the prior three years is associated with a 40 percent probability of entering a financial crisis within the next three years'.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Shaw |first=Jonathan |date=2020-12-07 |title=Can Financial Crises Be Predicted? |url=https://www.harvardmagazine.com/2021/01/right-now-predicting-financial-crises |access-date=2023-01-04 |website=Harvard Magazine |language=en |quote=“That’s an enormous number,” notes Gund professor of finance and banking Robin Greenwood. And that risk compares to just a 7 percent probability in normal times. The association just “jumps out at you. You don’t have to do any fancy analysis to uncover it,” adds Greenwood, who is coauthor of the Harvard Business School (HBS) working paper, “Predictable Financial Crises,”}}</ref>


=== Retail investors ===
==== Regional initiatives ====
IFIT initiatives modelled after national brain trusts but with a regional focus. Launched in 2022, the first regional initiative is The Regional Programme for Latin America and the Caribbean, with council members including [[Mariana Aylwin]], [[María Ángela Holguín]], [[Óscar Naranjo]], [[Leonardo Padura Fuentes|Leonardo Padura]], and [[Tania Pariona Tarqui]].
Greenwood's research has also focused on individual investors, as well as the rise of 'meme stocks' and impact of retail investors in buoying the American market in 2020-21 and research on the impact of COVID-19 on the economy.<ref>{{Cite journal |title=Sizing up corporate restructuring in the COVID crisis |url=https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles/sizing-up-corporate-restructuring-in-the-covid-crisis/ |journal=Brookings}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=Pandemic fallout is about to overwhelm the bankruptcy system and hit small businesses hardest |url=https://fortune.com/2020/11/24/bankruptcy-covid-economy-small-business/ |access-date=2023-01-04 |website=Fortune |language=en}}</ref> His research noted that market speculation can flare with the combination of stimulus funds and retail investors.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2022-07-21 |title=Did Pandemic Stimulus Funds Spur the Rise of 'Meme Stocks'? |url=http://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/did-pandemic-stimulus-funds-spur-the-rise-of-meme-stocks |access-date=2023-01-04 |website=HBS Working Knowledge |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |title=Stimulus cheques have buoyed America’s stockmarket |work=The Economist |url=https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/05/26/stimulus-cheques-have-buoyed-americas-stockmarket |access-date=2023-01-04 |issn=0013-0613}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last=Hernandez Barcena |first=Lorena |last2=Milstein |first2=Eric |last3=Wessel |first3=David |title=Hutchins Roundup: Tuition increases, stimulus checks, and more |url=https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2022/03/17/hutchins-roundup-tuition-increases-stimulus-checks-and-more/ |journal=Hutchins Roundup |quote=The federal Economic Impact Payments distributed during the pandemic were followed by increases in retail trading and the share prices of retail-dominated portfolios, find Robin Greenwood of Harvard Business School and Toomas Laarits and Jeffrey Wurgler of NYU Stern.}}</ref> Earlier work, alongside [[Nicholas Barberis]] and [[Andrei Shleifer]] linked bullishness to frequent extrapolation of results from recent returns, as well as observing the difficulty for individual investors in finding market-beating strategies.<ref>{{Cite book |last=Plender |first=John |url=https://books.google.com.uy/books?id=yygZCgAAQBAJ&pg=PT91&dq=robin+greenwood+harvard&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjytcXd3az8AhX7pZUCHSmuCtcQ6AF6BAgJEAI |title=Capitalism: Money, Morals and Markets |date=2015-07-28 |publisher=Biteback Publishing |isbn=978-1-84954-957-8 |language=en |quote=Yet there is now academic evidence from Robin Greenwood and Andrei Shleifer at Harvard University that when markets are close to their peak, investors are most bullish because they tend to extrapolate recent rises in prices into the ...}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=Are Investors Chronically Pessimistic? |url=https://www.chicagobooth.edu/review/are-investors-chronically-pessimistic |access-date=2023-01-04 |website=The University of Chicago Booth School of Business |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |last=Shiller |first=Robert J. |date=2018-10-12 |title=Why Our Beliefs Don’t Predict Much About the Economy |language=en-US |work=The New York Times |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/12/business/why-our-beliefs-dont-predict-much-about-the-economy.html |access-date=2023-01-04 |issn=0362-4331}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Hulbert |first=Mark |title=This can't-miss stock trading strategy has disappeared -- and isn't coming back |url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-cant-miss-stock-trading-strategy-has-disappeared-and-isnt-coming-back-11670874695 |access-date=2023-01-04 |website=MarketWatch |language=EN-US |quote=The takeaway, Greenwood told me, is that market-beating strategies don’t last forever. Because the index effect used to be large and predictable, it was inevitable that Wall Street would eventually discover it and, in the process, kill the goose laying the golden egg. He and his-co-author write: “The decline of the index effect is much like the evidence for other anomalies [patterns that can be profitably exploited], that they decline once they are well recognized by the market.”}}</ref>
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==References==
{{Reflist}}


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== References ==
{{Authority control}}

{{DEFAULTSORT:Greenwood, Robin}}

Latest revision as of 13:46, 9 January 2024

The Institue for Integrated Transitions (IFIT)
Established2012; 12 years ago (2012)
FoundersMark Freeman
TypeNon-governmental organization
Legal statusCharity
PurposeAid transitions to democracy
HeadquartersBarcelona, Spain
Key people
Emmanuel Gyimah-Boadi (Chairman)[1]
Websitewww.ifit-transitions.org

The Institute for Integrated Transitions (IFIT) is a non-governmental organisation based in Barcelona. It focuses on helping states transition out of cycles of war, crisis and authoritarianism. The organisation played a key role in the Colombia-FARC accords in 2015, and is active in Afghanistan, Libya, Mexico, Nigeria, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Syria, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela and Zimbabwe.

Established by Mark Freeman in 2012 following the onset of the Arab Spring, IFIT serves as a resource for local parties negotiating with adversaries, establishing short-term priorities and setting long-term goals. It hosts several initiatives and practice groups, notably their Law and Peace Practice Group, Inclusive Narrative Practice Group, and Transition Assistance Practice Group.

Objectives

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Founded in 2012 after the Arab Spring, the institute aims to help fragile and conflict-affected states transition sustainably out of war, crisis or authoritarianism.[2][3][4] It hosts policy and consensus-building lessons to support locally-led efforts at reducing polarisation and breaking cycles of conflict or repression.[5]

Donors include the governments of Ireland, Norway, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Germany, Sweden, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the European Commission. Private donors include the Ford Foundation, Sida, Robert Bosch Stiftung, the European Endowment for Democracy, and the United Nations Development Programme.

Organisation Structure

[edit]

IFIT operates globally through a decentralised group of 300 experts working as members of staff or within governance bodies, thematic practice groups, country brain trusts, regional programmes or global initiatives.[6] It is headquartered in Barcelona.[7] It's a part of the UN's Mediation Support Network, alongside the Alliance for Peacebuilding, and the European Peacebuilding Liaison Office. Their international council includes John Carlin, Nasser Saidi and Shaharzad Akbar.

Initiatives

[edit]

Brain Trusts and Colombia peace process

[edit]

The institute introduced brain trusts in 2016, with 15-18 members with expertise and influence.[8][9][10][11] It was also heavily involved in the Colombia peace process after 2012, serving as the international counsel to the Colombian delegation during negotiations with the FARC rebel group in Havana, leading to accords in December 2015.[12][13][14][15][16] The first brain trust was set up in the aftermath, and is used to facilitate policy discussions. Each receives policy support from IFIT to help achieve strategic goals, such as shaping policies and fostering alliances. IFIT also runs the Middle Belt Brain Trust in Nigeria and a brain trust in Venezuela.[9][17]

Initiatives

[edit]

IFIT has several initiatives, global and regional. Globally, the Peace Treaty Initiative seeks to develop an international law on peace negotiation,[18][19] the Global Initiative on Polarization seeks to propose a definition of what polarisation is and how to tackle its negative effects,[20][21] in collaboration with Ford Foundation, and the Initiative on Apex Court Appointments seeks to create a global protocol for the election of supreme court judges.[5][22]

Regional initiatives

[edit]

IFIT initiatives modelled after national brain trusts but with a regional focus. Launched in 2022, the first regional initiative is The Regional Programme for Latin America and the Caribbean, with council members including Mariana Aylwin, María Ángela Holguín, Óscar Naranjo, Leonardo Padura, and Tania Pariona Tarqui.

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Institute for Integrated Transitions appoints Prof. Gyimah-Boadi as President of Board of Directors". Citinewsroom - Comprehensive News in Ghana. 2022-06-15. Retrieved 2024-01-09.
  2. ^ "A Look Behind Closed Doors: Interview with Mark Freeman". Harvard International Review. 2020-05-11. Retrieved 2024-01-09. The Institute for Integrated Transitions was set up at the onset of the Arab Spring. It was very much motivated by the idea of creating a think tank that would make easy and accessible key lessons about negotiations––and in particular transitions––available in the context of the Arab Spring, and more generally, to countries that might be emerging from conflict or authoritarian rule.
  3. ^ Carlin, John (2016-09-27). "How the seeds of corruption are sown in Spain's junior soccer leagues". EL PAÍS English. Retrieved 2024-01-09. the Institute for Integrated Transitions, which helps countries make the transition from war and dictatorship to peace
  4. ^ "Constitutional reform, communications & political transformation: An interview with Mark Freeman". Groundviews. 2017-11-09. Retrieved 2024-01-09.
  5. ^ a b "What do we really know about polarization? Q&A with Mark Freeman". Ford Foundation. Retrieved 2024-01-09. we launched the Global Initiative on Polarization to deepen understanding of the diverse causes and consequences of severe polarization in democratic and nondemocratic settings
  6. ^ LaReau, Renée (2021-05-20). "Master of global affairs students awarded Hesburgh and Offenheiser Fellowships". Keough School - University of Notre Dame. Retrieved 2024-01-09.
  7. ^ Coll, Bernat (2016-09-30). "Freeman: "Si no se investiga el amaño, lo denunciaremos"". El País (in Spanish). ISSN 1134-6582. Retrieved 2024-01-09.
  8. ^ Nigeria, Guardian (2021-10-07). "Benue pensioners protest against alleged unpaid pension, gratuity". The Guardian Nigeria News - Nigeria and World News. Retrieved 2024-01-09.
  9. ^ a b "Creating a Favorable Environment for Negotiations in Venezuela". WOLA. Retrieved 2024-01-09.
  10. ^ "Effectiveness of Humanitarian Exceptions to Sanctions: Lessons from the Syria Earthquake - Syrian Arab Republic | ReliefWeb". reliefweb.int. 2023-12-12. Retrieved 2024-01-09.
  11. ^ "The Peace or Justice dilemma in Ukraine - Fundación Rafael del Pino". Rafael del Pino Foundation. Retrieved 2024-01-09.
  12. ^ "Maduro y oposición buscan "amigos" en el extranjero". diariolasamericas.com (in Spanish). 2017-05-13. Retrieved 2024-01-09.
  13. ^ "A Look Behind Closed Doors: Interview with Mark Freeman". Harvard International Review. 2020-05-11. Retrieved 2024-01-09.
  14. ^ "Colombia, Sri Lanka and referendums: Interview with Juanita Goebertus". Groundviews. 2017-11-09. Retrieved 2024-01-09.
  15. ^ tcruvellier (2018-10-30). "Mark Freeman: how you can negotiate justice and peace". JusticeInfo.net. Retrieved 2024-01-09.
  16. ^ "Diàlegs a Casa: 'Pau a Colòmbia', amb Mark Freeman i David Bondia". Casa Amèrica Catalunya. Retrieved 2024-01-09.
  17. ^ Attah, Solomon (28 Jun 2021). "PMB's approach to insecurity reduce rates of poverty, unemployment, ensures peace – Sule".
  18. ^ Jo, Hyeran (2023-10-10). "Peace in Sudan is elusive for any would-be mediators – but a new window of opportunity has opened for outside intervention". The Conversation. Retrieved 2024-01-09.
  19. ^ BARCELONA, L. D. / (2016-05-27). "Mark Freeman: "Barcelona tiene el potencial para ser un centro de referencia para el bien común a nivel global"". elperiodico (in Spanish). Retrieved 2024-01-09. Beyond our international activities – such as the launch of the practical advisory group Law and Peace –, since September 2014 we have been collaborating with the BCN International Policy Sector Action Plan, which aims to make the city a place of attraction for NGOs
  20. ^ "PressReader.com - Digital Newspaper & Magazine Subscriptions". www.pressreader.com. Retrieved 2024-01-09.
  21. ^ Torreón, El Siglo de (2023-09-09). "El debate sobre la polarización: una actualización". www.elsiglodetorreon.com.mx (in Spanish). Retrieved 2024-01-09.
  22. ^ "Ford Foundation: frontline organizations and private/public partnerships hold keys to global COVID-19 recovery". Ford Foundation. 2022-05-09. Retrieved 2024-01-09. The Global Initiative on Polarization – a unique multi-year collaboration between The Ford Foundation and the Institute for Integrated Transitions (IFIT) – aims to bring a more global, practice-driven and solution-oriented perspective to the complex problem of polarization. Ford's Playbook recognizes this growing threat to democracy and peace, and highlights how stemming the rise of polarization is critical to an equitable recovery
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