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Oscar's Grind is a betting strategy used by gamblers on wagers where the outcome is evenly distributed between two results of equal value (like flipping a coin). It is an archetypal positive progression strategy. It is also called Hoyle's Press. In German and French, it is often referred to as the Pluscoup Progression. It was first documented by Allan Wilson in his 1965 book, The Casino Gambler's Guide.^[1] This progression is based on calculating the size of bets so that in the event of a losing streak, if and when a same-length winning streak occurs, a profit is obtained. The main concept is that there are periods of many wins and periods of many losses. Losses and wins often come in streaks. Ideally, bets are kept low on losing streaks and increased on winning streaks, which hopefully will follow.

Description

Oscar's Grind divides the entire gambling event into sessions. A session is a sequence of consecutive wagers made until 1 unit of profit is won.^[2] Each session begins by betting 1 unit, and ends by winning 1 unit of profit. If the gambler loses, the session continues and the bet is repeated. Each time the gambler wins the game following a lost game, the bet is increased by 1 unit. This increase is not performed if the current bet warrants achieving at least 1 unit of profit in total, in case the next game is won. On the contrary, the bet size in such a situation should be decreased to assure exactly 1 unit is won.

Algorithm

unit := 1
betsize := unit
profit := 0

repeat
    bet
    if bet_won then
        profit := profit + betsize
        if profit < unit then
            if profit + betsize + unit > unit then
                betsize := unit − profit
            else
                betsize := betsize + unit
    else
        profit := profit − betsize
until profit = unit

Example

Example of a session
Bet size	Result	Profit	Comment
1	Loss	−1	Bet size stays the same
1	Loss	−2	Bet size stays the same
1	Loss	−3	Bet size stays the same
1	Loss	−4	Bet size stays the same
1	Loss	−5	Bet size stays the same
1	Win	−4	Bet size is 2 units now
2	Loss	−6	Bet size remains 2 units
2	Win	−4	Bet size increases to 3 units
3	Win	−1	Only 2 units needed to achieve profit
2	Win	1	Session ends

Analysis

Oscar's grind is the same as Martingale-based and Labouchère system in the sense that if there is an infinite amount to wager and time, every session will make a profit.^{[citation needed]} Not meeting these conditions will result in an inevitable loss of the entire stake in the long run. Only 500 losses in a row can come from a 500 unit bankroll, and if occasional wins increase the betsize, this number decreases significantly. Oscar's grind is based on losing streaks being "compensated" by winning streaks in the short run, and in the example above, a five-long losing streak was equalised by a three-long winning streak. If there is "compensation" with a five-long winning streak, three units of profit are gained. The base of the system originates in a hot-hand bias, but winning and losing streaks in gambling have no mathematical ground or proof.^{[citation needed]}

Variations

Oscar's Grind can be applied to non-even bets as well ("streets" in roulette or "doubling" in blackjack); one just has to keep track of the amount and increase the betsize after wins accordingly. There are also variations that try to reduce the variance by waiting for a couple of wins before increasing the betsize. As it is with all betting progressions, no variation of Oscar's Grind will make a profit in the long run.^{[citation needed]} Another variation involves setting aside a portion of each win as profit that is not used for future bets. This method seeks to guarantee that some amount of money is retained even if a losing streak follows a win, thereby reducing the overall risk.

References

^ Mason Malmuth; Lynne Loomis (1993), Fundamentals of Craps, Two Plus Two Publishing, p. 46, ISBN 1-880685-30-2
^ "The Positive Way Betting System". Oscar's Grind. 2011-09-03. Retrieved 2023-09-09.

[masonlynne-1] Mason Malmuth; Lynne Loomis (1993), Fundamentals of Craps, Two Plus Two Publishing, p. 46, ISBN 1-880685-30-2

[2] "The Positive Way Betting System". Oscar's Grind. 2011-09-03. Retrieved 2023-09-09.

[1]

[2]

@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
+{{Short description|Gambling strategy}}
-{{Multiple issues|{{more footnotes|date=August 2015}}
-{{Orphan|date=August 2015}}
+{{more footnotes|date=August 2015}}
-}}
-'''Oscar's Grind''' is a [[betting strategy]] used by gamblers on wagers where the outcome is [[Even money|evenly distributed]] between two results of equal value (like flipping a coin, betting on red or black in [[roulette]], etc.). It is an archetypal positive progression strategy. It is also called Hoyle's Press. In German and French it is often referred to as the Pluscoup Progression.<ref name="roulette30.com">{{Cite web|title = Oscar's Grind system - Pluscoup progression Roulette 30|url = http://www.roulette30.com/2014/01/oscars-grind-system-pluscoup-progression.html|website = www.roulette30.com|accessdate = 2015-10-02}}</ref> It was first documented by Allan Wilson in his 1965 book,''The Casino Gambler's Guide''.<ref name="masonlynne">{{citation | year=1993 | title = Fundamentals of Craps | author1=Mason Malmuth | author2=Lynne Loomis | publisher=Two Plus Two Publishing | isbn=1-880685-30-2 | page=46 | url=https://books.google.hu/books?id=ktT1ac4f_PoC&pg=PA46 }}</ref> This progression is based on calculating the size of bets so that in the event of a [[losing streak]], if and when a same-length [[Winning streak (sports)|winning streak]] occurs, a profit is obtained. Ideally, the win goal should be half of the original buy-in (e.g. $250 if one starts with $500) and loss limit should be 10 units.<ref name="edellfundamentals">{{citation | year=2005 | title=The Everything Craps Strategy Book: Win Big Every Time! | author=Larry Edell | publisher=F+W Media | isbn=978-1-59337-435-8 | page=105 | url=https://books.google.hu/books?id=Ttp4BNM8IyUC&pg=PA105 }}</ref> The main concept is that there are periods of many wins and periods of many losses. Losses and wins often come in streaks. Ideally, bets are kept low on losing streaks and increased on winning streaks, which hopefully will follow.<ref name="roulette30.com"/>
+'''Oscar's Grind''' is a [[betting strategy]] used by gamblers on wagers where the outcome is [[Even money|evenly distributed]] between two results of equal value (like flipping a coin). It is an archetypal positive progression strategy. It is also called Hoyle's Press. In German and French, it is often referred to as the Pluscoup Progression. It was first documented by Allan Wilson in his 1965 book, ''The Casino Gambler's Guide''.<ref name="masonlynne">{{citation | year=1993 | title = Fundamentals of Craps | author1=Mason Malmuth | author2=Lynne Loomis | publisher=Two Plus Two Publishing | isbn=1-880685-30-2 | page=46 | url=https://books.google.com/books?id=ktT1ac4f_PoC&pg=PA46 }}</ref> This progression is based on calculating the size of bets so that in the event of a [[losing streak]], if and when a same-length [[Winning streak (sports)|winning streak]] occurs, a profit is obtained. The main concept is that there are periods of many wins and periods of many losses. Losses and wins often come in streaks. Ideally, bets are kept low on losing streaks and increased on winning streaks, which hopefully will follow.
 ==Description==
+Oscar's Grind divides the entire gambling event into sessions. A session is a sequence of consecutive wagers made until 1 unit of profit is won.<ref>{{cite web|title=The Positive Way Betting System|website=Oscar's Grind|date=2011-09-03|url=https://www.casinoencyclopedia.com/oscars-grind-the-positive-way/|access-date=2023-09-09}}</ref> Each session begins by betting 1 unit, and ends by winning 1 unit of profit. If the gambler loses, the session continues and the bet is repeated. Each time the gambler wins the game following a lost game, the bet is increased by 1 unit. This increase is not performed if the current bet warrants achieving at least 1 unit of profit in total, in case the next game is won. On the contrary, the bet size in such a situation should be decreased to assure exactly 1 unit is won.
-Oscar's Grind divides the entire gambling event into sessions. A session is a sequence of consecutive wagers made until 1 unit of profit is won. Each session begins by betting 1 unit, and ends by winning 1 unit of profit. If the gambler loses, the session continues and the bet is repeated. Each time the gambler wins the game following a lost game, the bet is increased by 1 unit. This increase is not performed if the current bet warrants achieving at least 1 unit of profit in total, in case the next game is won. On the contrary, the bet size in such a situation should be decreased to assure exactly 1 unit is won. Given infinite money and time, this makes sure that every session ends with a 1 unit profit.
 ===Algorithm===
+ ''unit'' := 1
-   ''betsize'' := 1
+ ''betsize'' := unit
-   ''profit'' := 0
+ ''profit'' := 0
-   '''REPEAT'''
+ '''repeat'''
-    Bet
+     bet
-    '''IF''' bet_won, '''THEN'''
-        ''profit'' := ''profit''+''betsize''
+     '''if''' bet_won '''then'''
-        '''IF''' ''profit'' < 1 '''THEN'''
+         ''profit'' := ''profit'' + ''betsize''
-            '''IF''' ''profit''+''betsize''+1 > 1 '''THEN'''
+         '''if''' ''profit'' < unit '''then'''
-                ''betsize'' := 1-''profit''
+             '''if''' ''profit'' + ''betsize'' + unit > unit '''then'''
-            '''ELSE'''
+                 ''betsize'' := unit − ''profit''
-                ''betsize'' := ''betsize''+1
+             '''else'''
+                 ''betsize'' := ''betsize'' + unit
-    '''ELSE'''
-        ''profit'' := ''profit'' - ''bet''
+     '''else'''
-   '''UNTIL''' ''profit'' = 1
+         ''profit'' := ''profit'' − ''betsize''
+ '''until''' ''profit'' = unit
 ===Example===
 {| class="wikitable" style="text-align: center"
-|+ Example of a Session
+|+ Example of a session
+! Bet size
-!Betsize
 ! Result
 ! Profit
@@ Line 36: / Line 34: @@
 |-
 | 1
+| Loss
-|LOSS
-| -1
+| −1
-| Betsize stays the same
+| Bet size stays the same
 |-
 | 1
-| LOSS
+| Loss
-| -2
+| −2
-| Betsize stays the same
+| Bet size stays the same
 |-
 | 1
-| LOSS
+| Loss
-| -3
+| −3
-| Betsize stays the same
+| Bet size stays the same
 |-
 | 1
-| LOSS
+| Loss
-| -4
+| −4
-| Betsize stays the same
+| Bet size stays the same
 |-
 | 1
-| LOSS
+| Loss
-| -5
+| −5
-| Betsize stays the same
+| Bet size stays the same
 |-
 | 1
-| WIN
+| Win
-| -4
+| −4
-| Betsize is 2 units now
+| Bet size is 2 units now
 |-
 | 2
-| LOSS
+| Loss
-| -6
+| −6
-| Betsize remains 2 units
+| Bet size remains 2 units
 |-
 | 2
-| WIN
+| Win
-| -4
+| −4
-| Betsize increases to 3 units
+| Bet size increases to 3 units
 |-
 | 3
-| WIN
+| Win
-| -1
+| −1
 | Only 2 units needed to achieve profit
 |-
 | 2
-| WIN
+| Win
 | 1
 | Session ends
@@ Line 87: / Line 85: @@
 ==Analysis==
+Oscar's grind is the same as [[Martingale (betting system)|Martingale]]-based and [[Labouchère system]] in the sense that if there is an infinite amount to wager and time, every session will make a profit.{{cn|date=March 2024}} Not meeting these conditions will result in an inevitable loss of the entire stake in the long run. Only 500 losses in a row can come from a 500 unit bankroll, and if occasional wins increase the betsize, this number decreases significantly. Oscar's grind is based on losing streaks being "compensated" by winning streaks in the short run, and in the example above, a five-long losing streak was equalised by a three-long winning streak. If there is "compensation" with a five-long winning streak, three units of profit are gained. The base of the system originates in a hot-hand bias, but winning and losing streaks in gambling have no mathematical ground or proof.{{cn|date=March 2024}}
-Oscar's Grind is the same as [[Martingale (betting system)|Martingale]]-based and [[Labouchère system]] in the sense that if you have an infinite amount to wager and time, every session will make a profit. Not meeting these conditions will result in an inevitable loss of your entire stake in the long run. You can only lose 500 times in a row from a 500 unit bankroll, and if occasional wins increase the betsize, this number decreases significantly. Oscar's Grind is based on losing streaks being "compensated" by winning streaks in the short run, and in the example above, a 5-long losing streak was equalised by a 3-long winning streak. If we get 'compensated' with a 5-long winning streak, we get 3 units of profit.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.casino-strategy.com/en/strategy/roulette-strategies/oscar-s-grind|title=Oscar's Grind System|date=July 2015|publisher=casino-strategy.com|accessdate=5 November 2015}}</ref> The base of the system originates in a hot-hand bias, but winning and losing streaks in gambling have no mathematical ground or proof.
 ==Variations==
+Oscar's Grind can be applied to non-even bets as well ("streets" in [[roulette]] or "doubling" in [[blackjack]]); one just has to keep track of the amount and increase the betsize after wins accordingly. There are also variations that try to reduce the [[variance]] by waiting for a couple of wins before increasing the betsize. As it is with all betting progressions, no variation of Oscar's Grind will make a profit in the long run.{{cn|date=March 2024}} Another variation involves setting aside a portion of each win as profit that is not used for future bets. This method seeks to guarantee that some amount of money is retained even if a losing streak follows a win, thereby reducing the overall risk.
-Oscar's Grind can be applied to non-even bets as well ("streets" in [[roulette]] or "doubling" in [[blackjack]]), one just has to keep track of the amount and increase the betsize after wins accordingly. There are also variations that try to reduce the [[variance]] by waiting for a couple of wins before increasing the betsize. As it is with all betting progressions, no variation of Oscar's Grind will make a profit in the long run.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://imspirit.wordpress.com/2012/12/16/why-any-progression-must-fail-for-negative-expectancy-games-in-the-long-run/|title=Why Any Progression Must Fail for Negative Expectancy Games in the Long Run?|date=December 2012|publisher=imspirit.wordpress.com|accessdate=26 August 2015}}</ref>
 ==See also==
-* [[Betting strategy]]
+* [[Gambler's fallacy]]
-* [[Martingale (betting system)|Martingale-system]]
-* [[Labouchère system]]
-* [[Gambler's Fallacy]]
-{{Gambling}}
 ==References==
 {{Reflist}}
+{{Gambling}}
 {{DEFAULTSORT:Oscar's Grind}}