Moore's second law: Difference between revisions
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{{Short description|Observation on the growth of construction costs for a semiconductor fab}} |
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'''Rock's law''' or '''Moore's second law''', named for [[Arthur Rock]] or [[Gordon Moore]], says that the cost of a [[integrated circuit|semiconductor chip]] [[semiconductor fabrication plant|fabrication plant]] doubles every four years.<ref>{{cite web |
'''Rock's law''' or '''Moore's second law''', named for [[Arthur Rock]] or [[Gordon Moore]], says that the cost of a [[integrated circuit|semiconductor chip]] [[semiconductor fabrication plant|fabrication plant]] doubles every four years.<ref>{{cite web |title=FAQs |publisher=India Electronics & Semiconductor Association |url=http://www.iesaonline.org/aboutus/faq_pg3.html |access-date=2013-04-09 |archive-date=2017-11-20 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171120175509/http://www.iesaonline.org/aboutus/faq_pg3.html |url-status=dead }}</ref> As of 2015, the price had reached about 14 billion US dollars.<ref>{{cite web |first=Lucian |last=Armasu |title=Samsung's New $14 Billion Chip Plant To Manufacture DRAM, Processors In 2017 |agency=Reuters |date=8 May 2015 |publisher=Tom's Hardware |url=http://www.tomshardware.com/news/samsung-14-billion-chip-plant,29058.html}}</ref> |
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Rock's law can be seen as the economic flip side to [[Moore's law| |
Rock's law can be seen as the economic flip side to [[Moore's law|Moore's (first) law]] – that the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit doubles every two years. The latter is a direct consequence of the ongoing growth of the capital-intensive semiconductor industry— innovative and popular products mean more profits, meaning more capital available to invest in ever higher levels of [[Integrated circuit#LSI|large-scale integration]], which in turn leads to the creation of even more innovative products.{{Citation needed|date=May 2023}} |
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The semiconductor industry has always been extremely capital-intensive, with ever-dropping manufacturing [[unit cost]]s. Thus, the ultimate |
The semiconductor industry has always been extremely capital-intensive, with ever-dropping manufacturing [[unit cost]]s. Thus, the ultimate limits to growth of the industry will constrain the maximum amount of capital that can be invested in new products; at some point, Rock's Law will collide with Moore's Law.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.edavision.com/200111/feature.pdf |archive-date=6 May 2006 |last=Dorsch |first=Jeff |title=Does Moore's Law Still Hold Up? |publisher=Edavision.com |url-status=bot: unknown |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060506114410/http://www.edavision.com/200111/feature.pdf }}</ref><ref>{{cite web |url=http://research.microsoft.com/~gray/Moore_Law.html |archive-date=13 November 2008 |last=Schaller |first=Bob |date=1996 |title=The Origin, Nature, and Implications of 'Moore's Law' |publisher=Research.Microsoft.com |url-status=bot: unknown |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20081113014641/http://research.microsoft.com/~gray/Moore_Law.html }}</ref><ref>{{cite journal |first=Jean-François |last=Tremblay |title=Riding On Flat Panels |journal=Chemical & Engineering News |volume=84 |issue=26 |pages=13–16 |date=26 June 2006 |doi= 10.1021/cen-v084n026.p013|url=http://cen.acs.org/articles/84/i26/Riding-Flat-Panels.html}}</ref> |
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It has been suggested that fabrication plant costs have not increased as quickly as predicted by Rock's law – indeed plateauing in the late 1990s<ref name=Ross03>{{cite journal |first=Philip E. |last=Ross |title=5 Commandments |journal=IEEE Spectrum |
It has been suggested that fabrication plant costs have not increased as quickly as predicted by Rock's law – indeed plateauing in the late 1990s<ref name=Ross03>{{cite journal |first=Philip E. |last=Ross |title=5 Commandments: The rules engineers live by weren't always set in stone |journal=IEEE Spectrum |year=2003 |url=https://spectrum.ieee.org/5-commandments}}</ref> – and also that the fabrication plant cost ''per transistor'' (which has shown a pronounced downward trend<ref name=Ross03/>) may be more relevant as a constraint on Moore's Law. |
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==See also== |
==See also== |
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*[[Semiconductor device fabrication]] |
*[[Semiconductor device fabrication]] |
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*[[Fabless manufacturing]] |
*[[Fabless manufacturing]] |
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*[[Wirth's law]], an analogous law about software complicating over time |
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*[[Semiconductor consolidation]] |
*[[Semiconductor consolidation]] |
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==External links== |
==External links== |
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*{{cite web |first=Michael |
*{{cite web |first=Michael |last=Kanellos |title=Soaring costs of chipmaking recast industry |date=2003 |work=CNET |publisher=News.com |url=http://news.com.com/Semi+survival/2009-1001_3-981418.html |url-status=bot: unknown |archive-url=https://archive.today/20130119214941/http://news.com.com/Semi+survival/2009-1001_3-981418.html |archive-date=2013-01-19 }} |
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{{Computer laws}} |
{{Computer laws}} |
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[[Category:Adages]] |
[[Category:Adages]] |
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[[Category:Computer industry]] |
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[[Category:Computing culture]] |
[[Category:Computing culture]] |
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[[Category:Electronic design]] |
[[Category:Electronic design]] |
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[[Category: |
[[Category:Temporal exponentials]] |
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[[Category:Rules of thumb]] |
[[Category:Rules of thumb]] |
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[[Category:Electronics industry]] |
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Latest revision as of 09:10, 3 July 2024
Rock's law or Moore's second law, named for Arthur Rock or Gordon Moore, says that the cost of a semiconductor chip fabrication plant doubles every four years.[1] As of 2015, the price had reached about 14 billion US dollars.[2]
Rock's law can be seen as the economic flip side to Moore's (first) law – that the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit doubles every two years. The latter is a direct consequence of the ongoing growth of the capital-intensive semiconductor industry— innovative and popular products mean more profits, meaning more capital available to invest in ever higher levels of large-scale integration, which in turn leads to the creation of even more innovative products.[citation needed]
The semiconductor industry has always been extremely capital-intensive, with ever-dropping manufacturing unit costs. Thus, the ultimate limits to growth of the industry will constrain the maximum amount of capital that can be invested in new products; at some point, Rock's Law will collide with Moore's Law.[3][4][5]
It has been suggested that fabrication plant costs have not increased as quickly as predicted by Rock's law – indeed plateauing in the late 1990s[6] – and also that the fabrication plant cost per transistor (which has shown a pronounced downward trend[6]) may be more relevant as a constraint on Moore's Law.
See also
[edit]- Semiconductor device fabrication
- Fabless manufacturing
- Wirth's law, an analogous law about software complicating over time
- Semiconductor consolidation
References
[edit]- ^ "FAQs". India Electronics & Semiconductor Association. Archived from the original on 2017-11-20. Retrieved 2013-04-09.
- ^ Armasu, Lucian (8 May 2015). "Samsung's New $14 Billion Chip Plant To Manufacture DRAM, Processors In 2017". Tom's Hardware. Reuters.
- ^ Dorsch, Jeff. "Does Moore's Law Still Hold Up?" (PDF). Edavision.com. Archived from the original on 6 May 2006.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link) - ^ Schaller, Bob (1996). "The Origin, Nature, and Implications of 'Moore's Law'". Research.Microsoft.com. Archived from the original on 13 November 2008.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link) - ^ Tremblay, Jean-François (26 June 2006). "Riding On Flat Panels". Chemical & Engineering News. 84 (26): 13–16. doi:10.1021/cen-v084n026.p013.
- ^ a b Ross, Philip E. (2003). "5 Commandments: The rules engineers live by weren't always set in stone". IEEE Spectrum.
External links
[edit]- Kanellos, Michael (2003). "Soaring costs of chipmaking recast industry". CNET. News.com. Archived from the original on 2013-01-19.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)