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{{color box|lightgrey}} [[List of recessions in the United States|Recessions]]
{{color box|lightgrey}} [[List of recessions in the United States|Recessions]]
]]
]]
In [[finance]], an '''inverted yield curve''' is a [[Yield curve|yield curve]] in which short-term debt instruments (typically bonds) have a greater yield than longer term bonds. An inverted yield curve is an unusual phenomenon; bonds with shorter maturities generally provide lower yields than longer term bonds.<ref name="Bodie10">{{cite book |last1=Bodie |first1=Zvi |last2=Kane |first2=Alex |last3=Marcus |first3=Alan J. |title=Essentials of Investments |date=2010 |publisher=McGraw-Hill Irwin |location=New York |isbn=978-0-07-338240-1 |page=315-317 |edition=Eighth}}</ref><ref>{{cite book |last1=Melicher |first1=Ronald W. |last2=Welshans |first2=Merle T. |title=Finance: Introduction to Markets, Institutions and Management |publisher=South-Western Publishing Co. |location=Cincinnati OH |isbn=0-538-06160-X |page=493 |edition=7th}}</ref>
In [[finance]], an '''inverted yield curve''' is a [[yield curve]] in which short-term debt instruments (typically bonds) have a greater yield than longer term bonds. An inverted yield curve is an unusual phenomenon; bonds with shorter maturities generally provide lower yields than longer term bonds.<ref name="Bodie10">{{cite book |last1=Bodie |first1=Zvi |last2=Kane |first2=Alex |last3=Marcus |first3=Alan J. |title=Essentials of Investments |date=2010 |publisher=McGraw-Hill Irwin |location=New York |isbn=978-0-07-338240-1 |pages=315–317 |edition=Eighth}}</ref><ref>{{cite book |last1=Melicher |first1=Ronald W. |last2=Welshans |first2=Merle T. |title=Finance: Introduction to Markets, Institutions and Management |date=1988 |publisher=South-Western Publishing Co. |location=Cincinnati OH |isbn=0-538-06160-X |page=493 |edition=7th}}</ref>


To determine whether the yield curve is inverted, it is a common practice to compare the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond to either a 2-year [[Treasury Note|Treasury note]] or a 3-month [[Treasury bill]]. If the 10-year yield is less than the 2-year or 3-month yield, the curve is inverted.<ref>{{cite news |title=Bond Yields Reliably Predict Recessions. Why? |url=https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2018/07/26/bond-yields-reliably-predict-recessions-why |access-date=31 May 2023 |publisher=The Economist |date=26 July 2018}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last1=Randall |first1=David |last2=Barbuscia |first2=Davide |title=Explainer: U.S. yield curve reaches deepest inversion since 1981: What is it telling us? |url=https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/several-parts-us-yield-curve-are-inverted-what-does-it-tell-us-2022-11-01/ |access-date=27 May 2023 |agency=Reuters |date=March 7, 2023}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |last1=Strauss |first1=Lawrence C. |title=Yield-Curve Inversion Widens, Signaling More Recession Worries |url=https://www.barrons.com/articles/recession-signal-yield-curve-inversion-254d910f |website=Barron's |publisher=Dow Jones |access-date=28 May 2023}}</ref>
To determine whether the yield curve is inverted, it is a common practice to compare the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond to either a 2-year [[Treasury Note|Treasury note]] or a 3-month [[Treasury bill]]. If the 10-year yield is less than the 2-year or 3-month yield, the curve is inverted.<ref>{{cite news |title=Bond Yields Reliably Predict Recessions. Why? |url=https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2018/07/26/bond-yields-reliably-predict-recessions-why |access-date=31 May 2023 |publisher=The Economist |date=26 July 2018}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last1=Randall |first1=David |last2=Barbuscia |first2=Davide |title=Explainer: U.S. yield curve reaches deepest inversion since 1981: What is it telling us? |url=https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/several-parts-us-yield-curve-are-inverted-what-does-it-tell-us-2022-11-01/ |access-date=27 May 2023 |work=Reuters |date=March 7, 2023}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |last1=Strauss |first1=Lawrence C. |title=Yield-Curve Inversion Widens, Signaling More Recession Worries |url=https://www.barrons.com/articles/recession-signal-yield-curve-inversion-254d910f |website=Barron's |publisher=Dow Jones |access-date=28 May 2023}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |title=10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity |url=https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y |publisher=[[Federal Reserve Economic Data]]}}</ref>


==History==
==History==
The term "inverted yield curve" was coined by the Canadian [[economist]] [[Campbell Harvey]] in his 1986 [[PhD in management|PhD]] thesis at the [[University of Chicago]].
The term "inverted yield curve" was coined by the Canadian [[economist]] [[Campbell Harvey]] in his 1986 [[PhD in management|PhD]] thesis at the [[University of Chicago]].<ref>{{Cite web |last=Cox |first=Jeff |date=2019-10-08 |title=The father of the yield curve indicator says now is the time to prepare for a recession |url=https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/08/inverted-yield-curve-guru-campbell-harvey-prepare-for-recession.html |access-date=2024-03-27 |website=CNBC |language=en}}</ref>


==Causes and significance==
==Causes and significance==
There are several explanations of why the yield curve becomes inverted. The "expectations theory" holds that long-term rates depicted in the yield curve are a reflection of expected future short-term rates,<ref>{{cite book |last1=Melicher |first1=Ronald |last2=Welshans |first2=Merle |title=Finance: Introduction to Markets, Institutions & Management |publisher=South-Western Publishing Co. |location=Cincinnati OH |isbn=0-538-06160-X |page=493 |edition=1988}}</ref> which in turn reflect expectations about future economic conditions and monetary policy. In this view, an inverted yield curve implies that investors expect lower interest rates at some point in the future – for example, when the economy is expected to enter a recession and the Federal Reserve reduces interest rates to stimulate the economy and pull it out of recession. In that scenario, expected future short-term rates fall below current short-term rates, and the yield curve inverts.<ref name="RosenbergMaurer"/><ref name="Thau">{{cite book |last1=Thau |first1=Annette |title=The Bond Book |date=2001 |publisher=McGraw Hill |location=New York |isbn=0-07-135862-5 |page=86 |edition=Second}}</ref>
There are several explanations of why the yield curve becomes inverted. The "expectations theory" holds that long-term rates depicted in the yield curve are a reflection of expected future short-term rates,<ref>{{cite book |last1=Melicher |first1=Ronald |last2=Welshans |first2=Merle |title=Finance: Introduction to Markets, Institutions & Management |date=1988 |publisher=South-Western Publishing Co. |location=Cincinnati OH |isbn=0-538-06160-X |page=493 |edition=1988}}</ref> which in turn reflect expectations about future economic conditions and monetary policy. In this view, an inverted yield curve implies that investors expect lower interest rates at some point in the future – for example, when the economy is expected to enter a recession and the Federal Reserve reduces interest rates to stimulate the economy and pull it out of recession. In that scenario, expected future short-term rates fall below current short-term rates, and the yield curve inverts.<ref name="RosenbergMaurer"/><ref name="Thau">{{cite book |last1=Thau |first1=Annette |title=The Bond Book |date=2001 |publisher=McGraw Hill |location=New York |isbn=0-07-135862-5 |page=86 |edition=Second}}</ref>


A related explanation holds that when investors who value interest income expect recession, a shift in Federal Reserve policy and lower interest rates, they try to lock in long-term yields to protect their income stream. The resulting demand for longer-term bonds drives up their prices, reducing long-term yields.<ref name="Thau"/>{{rp|87}}
A related explanation holds that when investors who value interest income expect recession, a shift in Federal Reserve policy and lower interest rates, they try to lock in long-term yields to protect their income stream. The resulting demand for longer-term bonds drives up their prices, reducing long-term yields.<ref name="Thau"/>{{rp|87}}

==Business cycles==
{{see also|Criticism of the Federal Reserve|Quantitative easing|Quantitative tightening}}
The inverted yield curve is the contraction phase in the [[Business cycle]] or [[Credit cycle]] when the federal funds rate and treasury interest rates are high to create a [[Hard landing (economics)|hard]] or [[Soft landing (economics)|soft landing]] in the cycle. When the Federal funds rate and interest rates are lowered after the [[economic contraction]] (to get price and commodity stabilization) this is the growth and expansion phase in the business cycle. The Federal Reserve only indirectly controls the money supply and it is the banks themselves that [[Money creation|create new money]] when they make loans ([[Monetary system#Debt based monetary system|Debt based monetary system]]). By manipulating interest rates with the Federal funds rate and [[Repurchase agreement]] (Repo Market) the Fed tries to control how much new money banks create.<ref>{{cite web | url=https://mises.org/wire/here-we-go-again-fed-causing-another-recession | title=Here We Go Again: The Fed is Causing Another Recession | date=21 June 2022 }}</ref><ref>{{cite web | url=https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates | title=Reference Rates - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK }}</ref>


==As a leading indicator==
==As a leading indicator==
It has often been said that the inverted yield curve has been one of the most reliable leading indicators for economic recession during the post-World War 2 era. Proponents of this position maintain that inversion tends to predate a recession 7 to 24 months in advance.<ref name="Bodie10"/>{{rp|318}}<ref name="RosenbergMaurer">{{cite web |last1=Rosenberg |first1=Joshua |last2=Maurer |first2=Samuel |title=Signal or Noise? Implications of the Term Premium for Recession Forecasting |url=https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/epr/08v14n1/0807rose.html |publisher=Federal Reserve Bank of New York |access-date=27 May 2023}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |last1=Campbell |first1=Harvey R. |title=Yield Curve Inversions and Future Economic Growth |url=https://faculty.fuqua.duke.edu/~charvey/Research/Professional_Materials/Term_Structure_May_17_2011.pdf |publisher=Duke University |access-date=29 May 2023}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/invertedyieldcurve.asp|title=What Is an Inverted Yield Curve?|website=Investopedia.com}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://ig.ft.com/the-yield-curve-explained/|title=An inverted yield curve: why investors are watching closely|first1=Chelsea|last1=Bruce-Lockhart|first2=Emma|last2=Lewis|first3=Tommy|last3=Stubbington|website=Ig.ft.com}}</ref> Others are skeptical, for example stating that the inverted yield curve is "not necessarily" a reliable metric for predicting recession, or that it has predicted "nine of the past five" recessions.<ref name="Thau"/>{{rp|86}}<ref>{{cite web |last1=Andolfatto |first1=David |last2=Spewack |first2=Andrew |title=Does the Yield Curve Really Forecast Recession? |url=https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2018/11/30/does-the-yield-curve-really-forecast-recession/?&utm_source=fred.stlouisfed.org&utm_medium=referral&utm_term=related_resources&utm_content=&utm_campaign=es |website=Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis |access-date=27 May 2023}}</ref>
It has often been said that the inverted yield curve has been one of the most reliable leading indicators for economic recession during the post–World War II era. Proponents of this position maintain that inversion tends to predate a recession 7 to 24 months in advance.<ref name="Bodie10"/>{{rp|318}}<ref name="RosenbergMaurer">{{cite web |last1=Rosenberg |first1=Joshua |last2=Maurer |first2=Samuel |title=Signal or Noise? Implications of the Term Premium for Recession Forecasting |url=https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/epr/08v14n1/0807rose.html |publisher=Federal Reserve Bank of New York |access-date=27 May 2023}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |last1=Campbell |first1=Harvey R. |title=Yield Curve Inversions and Future Economic Growth |url=https://faculty.fuqua.duke.edu/~charvey/Research/Professional_Materials/Term_Structure_May_17_2011.pdf |publisher=Duke University |access-date=29 May 2023}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/invertedyieldcurve.asp|title=What Is an Inverted Yield Curve?|website=Investopedia.com}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://ig.ft.com/the-yield-curve-explained/|title=An inverted yield curve: why investors are watching closely|first1=Chelsea|last1=Bruce-Lockhart|first2=Emma|last2=Lewis|first3=Tommy|last3=Stubbington|website=Ig.ft.com|date=6 April 2022 }}</ref><ref>{{cite journal | url=https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03610926.2023.2232908 | doi=10.1080/03610926.2023.2232908 | title=How many times until a coincidence becomes a pattern? The case of yield curve inversions preceding recessions and the magical number 7 | date=2023 | last1=Kock | first1=Ned | last2=Tarkom | first2=Augustine | journal=Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods | pages=1–8 }}</ref> Others are skeptical, for example stating that the inverted yield curve is "not necessarily" a reliable metric for predicting recession, or that it has predicted "nine of the past five" recessions.<ref name="Thau"/>{{rp|86}}<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Andolfatto |first1=David |last2=Spewack |first2=Andrew |title=Does the Yield Curve Really Forecast Recession? |url=https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2018/11/30/does-the-yield-curve-really-forecast-recession/ |journal=Economic Synopses |year=2018 |volume=2018 |issue=30 |doi=10.20955/es.2018.30 |s2cid=158795961 |access-date=27 May 2023|doi-access=free }}</ref>


In 2023, inversion during a labor shortage and low indebtedness raised questions over whether widespread awareness of its predictive power made it less predictive.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.npr.org/2023/04/14/1170170563/an-indicator-that-often-points-to-recession-could-be-giving-a-false-signal-this- |title=An indicator that often points to recession could be giving a false signal this time |date=April 14, 2023 |publisher=[[All Things Considered]] |author1=Darian Woods |author2=Adrian Ma}}</ref>
In 2023, inversion during a labor shortage and low indebtedness raised questions over whether widespread awareness of its predictive power made it less predictive.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.npr.org/2023/04/14/1170170563/an-indicator-that-often-points-to-recession-could-be-giving-a-false-signal-this- |title=An indicator that often points to recession could be giving a false signal this time |date=April 14, 2023 |publisher=[[All Things Considered]] |author1=Darian Woods |author2=Adrian Ma}}</ref>


The longest and deepest Treasury yield curve inversion in history began in July 2022, as the Federal Reserve sharply increased the [[fed funds rate]] to combat the [[2021–2023 inflation surge]]. Despite widespread predictions by economists and market analysts of an imminent recession, none had materialized by July 2024, economic growth remained steady, and a Reuters survey of economists that month found they expected the economy to continue growing for the next two years. An earlier survey of bond market strategists found a majority no longer believed an inverted curve to be a reliable recession predictor. The curve began re-steepening toward positive territory in June 2024, as it had at other points during that inversion; in every previous inversion they examined, [[Deutsche Bank]] analysts found the curve had re-steepened before a recession began.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Peck |first1=Emily |title=Why everyone was so wrong about the 2023 economy |url=https://www.axios.com/2023/12/22/2023-economy-predictions-wrong-recession |work=[[Axios (website)|Axios]] |date=December 22, 2023}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last1=Barbuscia |first1=Davide |title=US yield curve nears flip with jury out on recession signal |url=https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/us-yield-curve-nears-flip-with-jury-out-recession-signal-2024-07-29/#:~:text=%22Right%20now%2C%20as%20the%20yield,previous%20inversion%20record%20from%201978. |publisher=Reuters |date=July 29, 2024}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |title=10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity |url=https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y |publisher=[[Federal Reserve Economic Data]]}}</ref>
⚫
==Inverted yield curves outside the USA==

⚫
==Inverted yield curves outside the US==
{{see also|2018–2023 Turkish currency and debt crisis}}
{{see also|2018–2023 Turkish currency and debt crisis}}
{|style="margin: 0 auto; float:center;"
{|style="margin: 0 auto; float:center;"
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{{legend-line|#00A2FF solid 3px|3 month bond}}
{{legend-line|#00A2FF solid 3px|3 month bond}}
]]
]]
|[[File:Ireland bond prices.webp|thumb|280px|Ireland bond prices, Inverted yield curve in 2011 during [[European debt crisis]] and [[Post-2008 Irish banking crisis|Ireland banking crisis]]<ref>https://www.researchgate.net/figure/a-Irish-yield-curve-dynamics-around-2011-loan-amendments-b-Portuguese-yield-curve_fig2_342609297 {{bare URL inline|date=April 2023}}</ref> And rates went negative after the [[European debt crisis]]
|[[File:Ireland bond prices.webp|thumb|280px|Ireland bond prices, Inverted yield curve in 2011 during [[European debt crisis]] and [[Post-2008 Irish banking crisis|Ireland banking crisis]]<ref>{{Cite web |title=a. Irish yield curve dynamics around 2011 loan amendments. b. Portuguese yield curve around 2011 loan amendments. |url=https://www.researchgate.net/figure/a-Irish-yield-curve-dynamics-around-2011-loan-amendments-b-Portuguese-yield-curve_fig2_342609297 |website=[[ResearchGate]]}}</ref> And rates went negative after the [[European debt crisis]]
{{legend-line|#FF8200 solid 3px|15 year bond}}
{{legend-line|#FF8200 solid 3px|15 year bond}}
{{legend-line|#009A44 solid 3px|10 year bond}}
{{legend-line|#009A44 solid 3px|10 year bond}}
Line 131: Line 137:
*[[2000s commodities boom]]
*[[2000s commodities boom]]
*[[2020s commodities boom]]
*[[2020s commodities boom]]
*[[Sahm rule]] - Economic indicator predicting recessions
*[[Yield Curve Control]]
*[[Yield Curve Control]]
*[[Taylor rule]]


==References==
==References==
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== External links ==
== External links ==
{{Commons category|Inverted yield curve}}

* [https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202305 Daily yield curve data.] U.S. Department of the Treasury.
* [https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202305 Daily yield curve data.] U.S. Department of the Treasury.
* [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y Daily yield spread data: 10-year vs. 2-year Treasury securities.] Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
* [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y Daily yield spread data: 10-year vs. 2-year Treasury securities.] Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Latest revision as of 18:08, 10 September 2024

Inverted yield curve in December 2006
Inverting / flattening yields on July 6, 2022[1]
Positive yield curve on February 22, 2022
US Treasury interest rates compared to Federal Funds Rate
  Federal Funds Rate
  30 year mortgage average
  30 Year Treasury Bond
   10 Year Treasury Bond
   2 Year Treasury Bond
   3 month Treasury Bond
   Effective Federal Funds Rate
   CPI inflation year/year
  Recessions

In finance, an inverted yield curve is a yield curve in which short-term debt instruments (typically bonds) have a greater yield than longer term bonds. An inverted yield curve is an unusual phenomenon; bonds with shorter maturities generally provide lower yields than longer term bonds.[2][3]

To determine whether the yield curve is inverted, it is a common practice to compare the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond to either a 2-year Treasury note or a 3-month Treasury bill. If the 10-year yield is less than the 2-year or 3-month yield, the curve is inverted.[4][5][6][7]

History

[edit]

The term "inverted yield curve" was coined by the Canadian economist Campbell Harvey in his 1986 PhD thesis at the University of Chicago.[8]

Causes and significance

[edit]

There are several explanations of why the yield curve becomes inverted. The "expectations theory" holds that long-term rates depicted in the yield curve are a reflection of expected future short-term rates,[9] which in turn reflect expectations about future economic conditions and monetary policy. In this view, an inverted yield curve implies that investors expect lower interest rates at some point in the future – for example, when the economy is expected to enter a recession and the Federal Reserve reduces interest rates to stimulate the economy and pull it out of recession. In that scenario, expected future short-term rates fall below current short-term rates, and the yield curve inverts.[10][11]

A related explanation holds that when investors who value interest income expect recession, a shift in Federal Reserve policy and lower interest rates, they try to lock in long-term yields to protect their income stream. The resulting demand for longer-term bonds drives up their prices, reducing long-term yields.[11]: 87 

Business cycles

[edit]
See also: Criticism of the Federal Reserve, Quantitative easing, and Quantitative tightening

The inverted yield curve is the contraction phase in the Business cycle or Credit cycle when the federal funds rate and treasury interest rates are high to create a hard or soft landing in the cycle. When the Federal funds rate and interest rates are lowered after the economic contraction (to get price and commodity stabilization) this is the growth and expansion phase in the business cycle. The Federal Reserve only indirectly controls the money supply and it is the banks themselves that create new money when they make loans (Debt based monetary system). By manipulating interest rates with the Federal funds rate and Repurchase agreement (Repo Market) the Fed tries to control how much new money banks create.[12][13]

As a leading indicator

[edit]

It has often been said that the inverted yield curve has been one of the most reliable leading indicators for economic recession during the post–World War II era. Proponents of this position maintain that inversion tends to predate a recession 7 to 24 months in advance.[2]: 318 [10][14][15][16][17] Others are skeptical, for example stating that the inverted yield curve is "not necessarily" a reliable metric for predicting recession, or that it has predicted "nine of the past five" recessions.[11]: 86 [18]

In 2023, inversion during a labor shortage and low indebtedness raised questions over whether widespread awareness of its predictive power made it less predictive.[19]

The longest and deepest Treasury yield curve inversion in history began in July 2022, as the Federal Reserve sharply increased the fed funds rate to combat the 2021–2023 inflation surge. Despite widespread predictions by economists and market analysts of an imminent recession, none had materialized by July 2024, economic growth remained steady, and a Reuters survey of economists that month found they expected the economy to continue growing for the next two years. An earlier survey of bond market strategists found a majority no longer believed an inverted curve to be a reliable recession predictor. The curve began re-steepening toward positive territory in June 2024, as it had at other points during that inversion; in every previous inversion they examined, Deutsche Bank analysts found the curve had re-steepened before a recession began.[20][21][22]

Inverted yield curves outside the US

[edit]
See also: 2018–2023 Turkish currency and debt crisis
German bonds
Inverted yield curve in 2008 and Negative interest rates 2014–2022
  30 year
  10 year
  2 year
  1 year
  3 month
United Kingdom bonds
  50 year
  20 year
  10 year
  2 year
  1 year
  3 month
  1 month
Canada bonds
  30 year
  10 year
  2 year
  1 year
  3 month
  1 month
Portugal bonds during European sovereign debt crisis
  30 year bond
  10 year bond
  5 year bond
  1 year bond
  3 month bond
Ireland bond prices, Inverted yield curve in 2011 during European debt crisis and Ireland banking crisis[23] And rates went negative after the European debt crisis
  15 year bond
  10 year bond
  5 year bond
  3 year bond
Russian bonds, Inverted yield curves to tame inflation during their wars (Russo-Georgian War, Russo-Ukrainian War, 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine)
  20 year bond
  10 year bond
  1 year bond
  3 month bond
Sri Lanka bonds spiked in 2022
Inverted yield curve in the first half of 2022 during Sri Lankan economic crisis
  15 year bonds
  10 year bonds
  5 year bonds
  1 year bonds
  6 month bonds
Brazilian bonds had an Inverted yield curve starting in August 2014 as part of the 2014 Brazilian economic crisis
  10 year bond
  5 year bond
  1 year bond
Iceland bonds had an Inverted yield curve in 2008 during the 2008–2011 Icelandic financial crisis
  10 year bonds
  5 year bonds
  2 year bonds
Japan bonds
Inverted yield curve in 1990
Zero interest-rate policy starting in 1995
Negative interest rate policy started in 2014
  30 year
  20 year
  10 year
  5 year
  2 year
  1 year
See also: Lost Decades
New Zealand bonds
Inverted yield curve in 1994–1998 and 2004–2008
  20 year
  10 year
  2 year
  3 month
  1 month
See also: Finance company collapses, 2006–2012 (New Zealand)

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "US Treasurys". CNBC. September 25, 2012.
  2. ^ a b Bodie, Zvi; Kane, Alex; Marcus, Alan J. (2010). Essentials of Investments (Eighth ed.). New York: McGraw-Hill Irwin. pp. 315–317. ISBN 978-0-07-338240-1.
  3. ^ Melicher, Ronald W.; Welshans, Merle T. (1988). Finance: Introduction to Markets, Institutions and Management (7th ed.). Cincinnati OH: South-Western Publishing Co. p. 493. ISBN 0-538-06160-X.
  4. ^ "Bond Yields Reliably Predict Recessions. Why?". The Economist. 26 July 2018. Retrieved 31 May 2023.
  5. ^ Randall, David; Barbuscia, Davide (March 7, 2023). "Explainer: U.S. yield curve reaches deepest inversion since 1981: What is it telling us?". Reuters. Retrieved 27 May 2023.
  6. ^ Strauss, Lawrence C. "Yield-Curve Inversion Widens, Signaling More Recession Worries". Barron's. Dow Jones. Retrieved 28 May 2023.
  7. ^ "10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity". Federal Reserve Economic Data.
  8. ^ Cox, Jeff (2019-10-08). "The father of the yield curve indicator says now is the time to prepare for a recession". CNBC. Retrieved 2024-03-27.
  9. ^ Melicher, Ronald; Welshans, Merle (1988). Finance: Introduction to Markets, Institutions & Management (1988 ed.). Cincinnati OH: South-Western Publishing Co. p. 493. ISBN 0-538-06160-X.
  10. ^ a b Rosenberg, Joshua; Maurer, Samuel. "Signal or Noise? Implications of the Term Premium for Recession Forecasting". Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Retrieved 27 May 2023.
  11. ^ a b c Thau, Annette (2001). The Bond Book (Second ed.). New York: McGraw Hill. p. 86. ISBN 0-07-135862-5.
  12. ^ "Here We Go Again: The Fed is Causing Another Recession". 21 June 2022.
  13. ^ "Reference Rates - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK".
  14. ^ Campbell, Harvey R. "Yield Curve Inversions and Future Economic Growth" (PDF). Duke University. Retrieved 29 May 2023.
  15. ^ "What Is an Inverted Yield Curve?". Investopedia.com.
  16. ^ Bruce-Lockhart, Chelsea; Lewis, Emma; Stubbington, Tommy (6 April 2022). "An inverted yield curve: why investors are watching closely". Ig.ft.com.
  17. ^ Kock, Ned; Tarkom, Augustine (2023). "How many times until a coincidence becomes a pattern? The case of yield curve inversions preceding recessions and the magical number 7". Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods: 1–8. doi:10.1080/03610926.2023.2232908.
  18. ^ Andolfatto, David; Spewack, Andrew (2018). "Does the Yield Curve Really Forecast Recession?". Economic Synopses. 2018 (30). doi:10.20955/es.2018.30. S2CID 158795961. Retrieved 27 May 2023.
  19. ^ Darian Woods; Adrian Ma (April 14, 2023). "An indicator that often points to recession could be giving a false signal this time". All Things Considered.
  20. ^ Peck, Emily (December 22, 2023). "Why everyone was so wrong about the 2023 economy". Axios.
  21. ^ Barbuscia, Davide (July 29, 2024). "US yield curve nears flip with jury out on recession signal". Reuters.
  22. ^ "10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity". Federal Reserve Economic Data.
  23. ^ "a. Irish yield curve dynamics around 2011 loan amendments. b. Portuguese yield curve around 2011 loan amendments". ResearchGate.
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