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{{Short description|Absence of major wars following World War II}} |
{{Short description|Absence of major wars following World War II}} |
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"'''Long Peace'''" is a term for the unprecedented |
"'''Long Peace'''" is a term for the unprecedented historical period following the end of [[World War II]] in 1945 to the present day. <ref name="Gaddis1989"/><ref name="Freedman2014">{{cite journal|last1=Freedman|first1=Lawrence|title=Stephen Pinker and the long peace: alliance, deterrence and decline|journal=Cold War History|volume=14|issue=4|year=2014|pages=657–672|issn=1468-2745|doi=10.1080/14682745.2014.950243|s2cid=154846757}}</ref> The period of the [[Cold War]] (1947–1991) was marked by the absence of major wars between the [[great powers]] of the period, the [[United States]] and the [[Soviet Union]].<ref name="Gaddis1989">{{cite book|last=Gaddis|first=John Lewis|title=The Long Peace: Inquiries Into the History of the Cold War|year=1989|publisher=Oxford University Press|isbn=0-19-504335-9|url=https://archive.org/details/longpeaceinquiri0000gadd|url-access=registration}}</ref><ref name="Saperstein1991">{{cite journal|last=Saperstein|first=Alvin M.|title=The "Long Peace"— Result of a Bipolar Competitive World?|journal=The Journal of Conflict Resolution|date=March 1991|volume=35|issue=1|pages=68–79|doi=10.1177/0022002791035001004|s2cid=153738298}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal|last=Lebow|first=Richard Ned|title=The Long Peace, the End of the Cold War, and the Failure of Realism|journal=International Organization|date=Spring 1994|volume=48|issue=2|pages=249–277|jstor=2706932|doi=10.1017/s0020818300028186|s2cid=155032446 }}</ref> First recognized in 1986,<ref name="Gaddis1986">{{cite journal|last1=Gaddis|first1=John Lewis|title=The Long Peace: Elements of Stability in the Postwar International System|journal=International Security|volume=10|issue=4|year=1986|pages=99–142|issn=0162-2889|doi=10.2307/2538951|jstor=2538951|s2cid=59686350}}</ref><ref name="VasquezKang2012">{{cite journal|last1=Vasquez|first1=John A|last2=Kang|first2=Choong-Nam|title=How and why the Cold War became a long peace: Some statistical insights|journal=Cooperation and Conflict|volume=48|issue=1|year=2012|pages=28–50|issn=0010-8367|doi=10.1177/0010836712461625|s2cid=154868730}}</ref> the period of "relative peace" has been compared to the relatively-long stability of the [[Roman Empire]], the [[Pax Romana]],<ref name="InglehartPuranen2015"/> or the [[Pax Britannica]], a century of relative peace that existed between the end of the [[Napoleonic Wars]] in 1815 and the outbreak of [[World War I]] in 1914, during which the British Empire held global hegemony. |
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In the |
In the 1990 it was thought that the Long Peace was a unique result of the Cold War.<ref name="Saperstein1991"/><ref name="Gaddis1992">{{cite journal|last1=Gaddis|first1=John Lewis|title=The Cold War, the Long Peace, and the Future|journal=Diplomatic History|volume=16|issue=2|year=1992|pages=234–246|issn=0145-2096|doi=10.1111/j.1467-7709.1992.tb00499.x}}</ref><ref name="Duffield2009">{{cite journal|last1=Duffield|first1=John S.|title=Explaining the Long Peace in Europe: the contributions of regional security regimes|journal=Review of International Studies|volume=20|issue=4|year=2009|pages=369–388|issn=0260-2105|doi=10.1017/S0260210500118170|s2cid=145698353 }}</ref> However, when the Cold War ended the same trends continued in what has also been called the "New Peace".<ref name="Fettweis2017">{{cite journal|last1=Fettweis|first1=Christopher J.|title=Unipolarity, Hegemony, and the New Peace|journal=Security Studies|volume=26|issue=3|year=2017|pages=423–451|issn=0963-6412|doi=10.1080/09636412.2017.1306394|s2cid=148993870}}</ref> The period has exhibited more than a quarter of a century of even greater stability and peacefulness and has also shown continued improvements in related measurements such as the number of coups, the amount of repression, and the durability of peace settlements.<ref name="Fettweis2017"/> Though [[civil wars]] and lesser military conflicts have occurred, there has been a continued absence of direct conflict between any of the largest economies by [[gross domestic product]]; instead, wealthier countries have fought limited small-scale regional conflicts with poorer countries. Conflicts involving smaller economies have also gradually tapered off.<ref name="HSC2013"/> Overall, the number of international wars decreased from a rate of six per year in the 1950s to one per year in the 2000s, and the number of fatalities decreased from 240 reported deaths per million to less than 10 reported deaths per million.<ref name="Freedman2014"/><ref name="HSC2013">{{Cite web| title = Human Security Report 2013: The Decline in Global Violence| author = Human Security Research Group, [[Simon Fraser University]]| date = 2013| access-date = 11 November 2018| url = https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/HSRP_Report_2013_140226_Web.pdf}}</ref> |
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In 2012, the [[European Union]] was awarded the [[2012 Nobel Peace Prize|Nobel Peace Prize]] "for over six decades [having] contributed to the advancement of peace and [[conflict resolution|reconciliation]], democracy and [[human rights]] in Europe" by a unanimous decision of the [[Norwegian Nobel Committee]]. |
In 2012, the [[European Union]] was awarded the [[2012 Nobel Peace Prize|Nobel Peace Prize]] "for over six decades [having] contributed to the advancement of peace and [[conflict resolution|reconciliation]], democracy and [[human rights]] in Europe" by a unanimous decision of the [[Norwegian Nobel Committee]]. |
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Major factors cited as reasons for the Long Peace have included the [[nuclear deterrence|deterrence effect]] of [[nuclear weapons]], the economic incentives towards cooperation caused by [[globalization]] and [[international trade]], the [[democratic peace theory|worldwide increase in the number of democracies]], the [[World Bank]]'s efforts in [[poverty alleviation|reduction of poverty]], and the effects of the [[UN Women|empowerment of women]] and [[United Nations peacekeeping|peacekeeping by the United Nations]].<ref name="Fettweis2017"/> However, no factor is a sufficient explanation on its own and so additional or combined factors are likely. Other proposed explanations have included the proliferation of the recognition of [[human rights]], increasing [[education]] and [[quality of life]], changes in the way that people view conflicts (such as the presumption that [[wars of aggression]] are unjustified), the success of [[non-violent action]], and demographic factors such as the reduction in birthrates.<ref name="InglehartPuranen2015">{{cite journal|last1=Inglehart|first1=Ronald F|last2=Puranen|first2=Bi|last3=Welzel|first3=Christian|title=Declining willingness to fight for one's country|journal=Journal of Peace Research|volume=52|issue=4|year=2015|pages=418–434|issn=0022-3433|doi=10.1177/0022343314565756}}</ref><ref name="Fettweis2017"/><ref name="HSC2013"/> |
Major factors cited as reasons for the Long Peace have included the [[nuclear deterrence|deterrence effect]] of [[nuclear weapons]], the economic incentives towards cooperation caused by [[globalization]] and [[international trade]], the [[democratic peace theory|worldwide increase in the number of democracies]], the [[World Bank]]'s efforts in [[poverty alleviation|reduction of poverty]], and the effects of the [[UN Women|empowerment of women]] and [[United Nations peacekeeping|peacekeeping by the United Nations]].<ref name="Fettweis2017"/> However, no factor is a sufficient explanation on its own and so additional or combined factors are likely. Other proposed explanations have included the proliferation of the recognition of [[human rights]], increasing [[education]] and [[quality of life]], changes in the way that people view conflicts (such as the presumption that [[wars of aggression]] are unjustified), the success of [[non-violent action]], and demographic factors such as the reduction in birthrates.<ref name="InglehartPuranen2015">{{cite journal|last1=Inglehart|first1=Ronald F|last2=Puranen|first2=Bi|last3=Welzel|first3=Christian|title=Declining willingness to fight for one's country|journal=Journal of Peace Research|volume=52|issue=4|year=2015|pages=418–434|issn=0022-3433|doi=10.1177/0022343314565756|s2cid=113340539}}</ref><ref name="Fettweis2017"/><ref name="HSC2013"/> |
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In the book ''[[The Better Angels of Our Nature]]'', [[Steven Pinker]] considers that to be part of a trend that has continued since the beginning of recorded history,<ref name="Freedman2014"/><ref name="Pinker2011">{{cite book|last1=Pinker|first1=Steven|title=The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined|date=2011|publisher=Viking|location=New York|isbn=9780670022953|url-access=registration|url=https://archive.org/details/betterangelsofou00pink}}</ref> and other experts have made similar arguments.<ref name="HSC2013"/><ref name="Goldstein2012">{{cite book|author=Joshua S. Goldstein|title=Winning the War on War: The Decline of Armed Conflict Worldwide|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=-e9vDwAAQBAJ|year=2012|publisher=Plume|isbn=978-0-452-29859-0}}</ref> While there is general agreement among experts that we are in a Long Peace and that wars have declined since the 1950s,<ref name="Freedman2014"/><ref name="HSC2013"/> Pinker's broader thesis has been contested.<ref name="HSC2013"/> Critics have also said that a longer period of relative peace is needed to be certain, or they have emphasized minor reversals in specific trends, such as the increase in battle deaths between 2011 and 2014 due to the [[Syrian Civil War]].<ref name="Fettweis2017"/> |
In the book ''[[The Better Angels of Our Nature]]'', [[Steven Pinker]] considers that to be part of a trend that has continued since the beginning of recorded history,<ref name="Freedman2014"/><ref name="Pinker2011">{{cite book|last1=Pinker|first1=Steven|title=The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined|date=2011|publisher=Viking|location=New York|isbn=9780670022953|url-access=registration|url=https://archive.org/details/betterangelsofou00pink}}</ref> and other experts have made similar arguments.<ref name="HSC2013"/><ref name="Goldstein2012">{{cite book|author=Joshua S. Goldstein|title=Winning the War on War: The Decline of Armed Conflict Worldwide|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=-e9vDwAAQBAJ|year=2012|publisher=Plume|isbn=978-0-452-29859-0}}</ref> While there is general agreement among experts that we are in a Long Peace and that wars have declined since the 1950s,<ref name="Freedman2014"/><ref name="HSC2013"/> Pinker's broader thesis has been contested.<ref name="HSC2013"/> Critics have also said that a longer period of relative peace is needed to be certain,<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Clauset |first=Aaron |date=2018 |title=Trends and fluctuations in the severity of interstate wars |journal=Science Advances |volume=4 |issue=2 |pages=aao3580 |doi=10.1126/sciadv.aao3580 |pmid=29507877 |pmc=5834001 |bibcode=2018SciA....4.3580C }}</ref> or they have emphasized minor reversals in specific trends, such as the increase in battle deaths between 2011 and 2014 due to the [[Syrian Civil War]].<ref name="Fettweis2017"/> |
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Pinker's work has received some publicity, but most information about the Long Peace and related trends remains outside public awareness, and some data demonstrate a widespread perception that the world has become more dangerous.<ref name="Fettweis2017"/><ref name="HSC2013"/> |
Pinker's work has received some publicity, but most information about the Long Peace and related trends remains outside public awareness, and some data demonstrate a widespread perception that the world has become more dangerous.<ref name="Fettweis2017"/><ref name="HSC2013"/> |
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== See also == |
== See also == |
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* [[Balance of terror]] |
* [[Balance of terror]] |
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* [[Deterrence theory]] |
* [[Deterrence theory]] |
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== References == |
== References == |
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[[Category:Cold War terminology]] |
[[Category:Cold War terminology]] |
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[[Category:Historical eras]] |
[[Category:Historical eras]] |
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[[Category:1986 neologisms]] |
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[[Category:Cold War historiography]] |
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Latest revision as of 16:15, 23 October 2024
"Long Peace" is a term for the unprecedented historical period following the end of World War II in 1945 to the present day. [1][2] The period of the Cold War (1947–1991) was marked by the absence of major wars between the great powers of the period, the United States and the Soviet Union.[1][3][4] First recognized in 1986,[5][6] the period of "relative peace" has been compared to the relatively-long stability of the Roman Empire, the Pax Romana,[7] or the Pax Britannica, a century of relative peace that existed between the end of the Napoleonic Wars in 1815 and the outbreak of World War I in 1914, during which the British Empire held global hegemony.
In the 1990 it was thought that the Long Peace was a unique result of the Cold War.[3][8][9] However, when the Cold War ended the same trends continued in what has also been called the "New Peace".[10] The period has exhibited more than a quarter of a century of even greater stability and peacefulness and has also shown continued improvements in related measurements such as the number of coups, the amount of repression, and the durability of peace settlements.[10] Though civil wars and lesser military conflicts have occurred, there has been a continued absence of direct conflict between any of the largest economies by gross domestic product; instead, wealthier countries have fought limited small-scale regional conflicts with poorer countries. Conflicts involving smaller economies have also gradually tapered off.[11] Overall, the number of international wars decreased from a rate of six per year in the 1950s to one per year in the 2000s, and the number of fatalities decreased from 240 reported deaths per million to less than 10 reported deaths per million.[2][11]
In 2012, the European Union was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize "for over six decades [having] contributed to the advancement of peace and reconciliation, democracy and human rights in Europe" by a unanimous decision of the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Major factors cited as reasons for the Long Peace have included the deterrence effect of nuclear weapons, the economic incentives towards cooperation caused by globalization and international trade, the worldwide increase in the number of democracies, the World Bank's efforts in reduction of poverty, and the effects of the empowerment of women and peacekeeping by the United Nations.[10] However, no factor is a sufficient explanation on its own and so additional or combined factors are likely. Other proposed explanations have included the proliferation of the recognition of human rights, increasing education and quality of life, changes in the way that people view conflicts (such as the presumption that wars of aggression are unjustified), the success of non-violent action, and demographic factors such as the reduction in birthrates.[7][10][11]
In the book The Better Angels of Our Nature, Steven Pinker considers that to be part of a trend that has continued since the beginning of recorded history,[2][12] and other experts have made similar arguments.[11][13] While there is general agreement among experts that we are in a Long Peace and that wars have declined since the 1950s,[2][11] Pinker's broader thesis has been contested.[11] Critics have also said that a longer period of relative peace is needed to be certain,[14] or they have emphasized minor reversals in specific trends, such as the increase in battle deaths between 2011 and 2014 due to the Syrian Civil War.[10]
Pinker's work has received some publicity, but most information about the Long Peace and related trends remains outside public awareness, and some data demonstrate a widespread perception that the world has become more dangerous.[10][11]
See also
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ a b Gaddis, John Lewis (1989). The Long Peace: Inquiries Into the History of the Cold War. Oxford University Press. ISBN 0-19-504335-9.
- ^ a b c d Freedman, Lawrence (2014). "Stephen Pinker and the long peace: alliance, deterrence and decline". Cold War History. 14 (4): 657–672. doi:10.1080/14682745.2014.950243. ISSN 1468-2745. S2CID 154846757.
- ^ a b Saperstein, Alvin M. (March 1991). "The "Long Peace"— Result of a Bipolar Competitive World?". The Journal of Conflict Resolution. 35 (1): 68–79. doi:10.1177/0022002791035001004. S2CID 153738298.
- ^ Lebow, Richard Ned (Spring 1994). "The Long Peace, the End of the Cold War, and the Failure of Realism". International Organization. 48 (2): 249–277. doi:10.1017/s0020818300028186. JSTOR 2706932. S2CID 155032446.
- ^ Gaddis, John Lewis (1986). "The Long Peace: Elements of Stability in the Postwar International System". International Security. 10 (4): 99–142. doi:10.2307/2538951. ISSN 0162-2889. JSTOR 2538951. S2CID 59686350.
- ^ Vasquez, John A; Kang, Choong-Nam (2012). "How and why the Cold War became a long peace: Some statistical insights". Cooperation and Conflict. 48 (1): 28–50. doi:10.1177/0010836712461625. ISSN 0010-8367. S2CID 154868730.
- ^ a b Inglehart, Ronald F; Puranen, Bi; Welzel, Christian (2015). "Declining willingness to fight for one's country". Journal of Peace Research. 52 (4): 418–434. doi:10.1177/0022343314565756. ISSN 0022-3433. S2CID 113340539.
- ^ Gaddis, John Lewis (1992). "The Cold War, the Long Peace, and the Future". Diplomatic History. 16 (2): 234–246. doi:10.1111/j.1467-7709.1992.tb00499.x. ISSN 0145-2096.
- ^ Duffield, John S. (2009). "Explaining the Long Peace in Europe: the contributions of regional security regimes". Review of International Studies. 20 (4): 369–388. doi:10.1017/S0260210500118170. ISSN 0260-2105. S2CID 145698353.
- ^ a b c d e f Fettweis, Christopher J. (2017). "Unipolarity, Hegemony, and the New Peace". Security Studies. 26 (3): 423–451. doi:10.1080/09636412.2017.1306394. ISSN 0963-6412. S2CID 148993870.
- ^ a b c d e f g Human Security Research Group, Simon Fraser University (2013). "Human Security Report 2013: The Decline in Global Violence" (PDF). Retrieved 11 November 2018.
- ^ Pinker, Steven (2011). The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined. New York: Viking. ISBN 9780670022953.
- ^ Joshua S. Goldstein (2012). Winning the War on War: The Decline of Armed Conflict Worldwide. Plume. ISBN 978-0-452-29859-0.
- ^ Clauset, Aaron (2018). "Trends and fluctuations in the severity of interstate wars". Science Advances. 4 (2): aao3580. Bibcode:2018SciA....4.3580C. doi:10.1126/sciadv.aao3580. PMC 5834001. PMID 29507877.
Periods of regional and relative peace | ||
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