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{{Short description|none}}
{{Infobox Election
{{Use mdy dates|date=September 2023}}
| election_name = Iowa Republican caucuses, 2000
{{Infobox election
| election_name = 2000 [[Iowa]] Republican presidential caucuses
| country = Iowa
| country = Iowa
| flag_image = Flag of Iowa (xrmap collection).svg
| type = presidential
| type = presidential
| ongoing = no
| ongoing = no
| previous_election = Iowa Republican caucuses, 1996
| previous_election = 1996 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses
| previous_year = 1996
| previous_year = 1996
| next_election = United_States_presidential_election_in_Iowa,_2008#Republican_caucuses
| next_election = 2008 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses
| next_year = 2008
| next_year = 2008
| election_date = {{Start date|2000|01|24}}
| election_date = {{Start date|2000|01|24}}
| votes_for_election = 30 unpledged [[2000 Republican National Convention|Republican National Convention]] delegates
| image1 = [[Image:GeorgeWBush.jpg|x159px]]
| elected_members = [[2000 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary|NH]]
| image1 = [[Image:Official Portrait- President George Walker Bush, 43rd President of the United States, Republican - DPLA - 7482eac0e113bf03014d1686a3733f97.jpeg|x159px]]
| nominee1 = '''[[George W. Bush]]'''
| nominee1 = '''[[George W. Bush]]'''
| colour1 = FF3333
| home_state1 = [[Texas]]
| home_state1 = [[Texas]]
| delegate_count1 = '''10'''
| popular_vote1 = '''35,948'''
| popular_vote1 = '''35,948'''
| percentage1 = '''40.99%'''
| percentage1 = '''40.99%'''
| image2 = [[Image:Steve Forbes (1).jpg|x159px]]
| image2 = [[Image:Steve Forbes (1).jpg|x159px]]
| nominee2 = [[Steve Forbes]]
| nominee2 = [[Steve Forbes]]
| colour2 = 305c88
| home_state2 = [[New York (state)|New York]]
| home_state2 = [[New York (state)|New York]]
| delegate_count2 = 8
| popular_vote2 = 26,744
| popular_vote2 = 26,744
| percentage2 = 30.50%
| percentage2 = 30.50%
| image3 = [[Image:Alan Keyes (1).jpg|x159px]]
| image3 = [[Image:Alan Keyes (1).jpg|x159px]]
| nominee3 = [[Alan Keyes]]
| nominee3 = [[Alan Keyes]]
| colour3 = 812939
| home_state3 = [[Maryland]]
| home_state3 = [[Maryland]]
| delegate_count3 = 4
| popular_vote3 = 12,496
| popular_vote3 = 12,496
| percentage3 = 14.24%
| percentage3 = 14.24%
| image4 = [[Image:Barybauerconcord (1).jpg |x159px]]
| nominee4 = [[Gary Bauer]]
| colour4 = 2b6d2c
| home_state4 = [[Kentucky]]
| delegate_count4 = 2
| popular_vote4 = 7,487
| percentage4 = 8.53%
| image5 = [[Image:John McCain.jpg |x159px]]
| nominee5 = [[John McCain]]
| colour5 = ffff00
| home_state5 = [[Arizona]]
| delegate_count5 = 1
| popular_vote5 = 4,093
| percentage5 = 4.67%
| map_image = Iowa Republican presidential caucuses, 2000 results by county.svg
| map_image = Iowa Republican presidential caucuses, 2000 results by county.svg
| map_size = 250px
| map_size = 250px
| map_caption = Iowa results by county
| map_caption = Iowa results by county
{{legend|#d30036|George W. Bush}}
{{legend|#FF3333|George W. Bush}}
{{legend|#305c88|Steve Forbes}}
{{legend|#305c88|Steve Forbes}}
{{legend|#2b6d2c|Gary Bauer}}
{{legend|#2b6d2c|Gary Bauer}}
|color1=d30036|color2=305c88}}
|color1=d30036|color2=305c88}}
{{ElectionsIA}}
{{ElectionsIA}}
{{Short description|2000 Republican Party presidential nominating contest in Iowa}}
The '''2000 Iowa Republican caucuses''' took place on January 24, 2000. The Iowa Republican caucuses are an unofficial primary, with the delegates to the state convention selected proportionally via a [[straw poll]]. The [[Iowa caucuses]] marked the traditional formal start of the delegate selection process for the [[United States presidential election, 2000|2000 United States presidential election]].
{{Use mdy dates|date=September 2023}}


The '''2000 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses''' took place on January 24, 2000. The Iowa Republican caucuses are an unofficial primary, with the delegates to the state convention selected proportionally via a [[straw poll]].<ref>{{cite news |last=Berke |first=Richard L. |title=The 2000 Campaign: The Overview; Bush and Gore Score Victories in Iowa |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2000/01/25/us/2000-campaign-overview-bush-gore-score-victories-iowa.html |work=The New York Times |date=January 25, 2000 |access-date=2024-01-15}}</ref> The [[Iowa caucuses]] marked the traditional formal start of the delegate selection process for the [[2000 United States presidential election]].<ref>{{cite news |last=Balz |first=Dan |title=Bush, Gore Post Iowa Victories |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/campaigns/wh2000/stories/iowa012500.htm |newspaper=The Washington Post |date=January 25, 2000 |access-date=2024-01-15}}</ref>
Prior to the 2000 caucuses, as in previous election cycles with a competitive presidential race, an unofficial [[Ames Straw Poll]] was held, on August 14, 1999. The official one, electing delegates to the state convention, was held on January 24, 2000, the same day as the [[Iowa Democratic caucuses, 2000|Democratic contest]]. In the [[Ames Straw Poll]], [[George W. Bush]] finished first with 31% of the vote. In the January 2000 caucuses, Bush again finished first with 41% of the vote.


==Background==
==January 2000 procedure==
The 2000 election cycle marked the first open [[Republican Party presidential primaries|Republican presidential primary]] since 1996, following two terms of Democratic President [[Bill Clinton]]. The [[Republican Party (United States)|Republican]] field was notably crowded, with several prominent candidates vying for the nomination.<ref>{{cite book |last=Wayne |first=Stephen J. |title=The Road to the White House 2000: The Politics of Presidential Elections |year=2000 |publisher=Palgrave Macmillan |isbn=978-0312223320 |pages=115–117}}</ref> [[Governor of Texas|Texas Governor]] [[George W. Bush]] entered the race as the presumptive frontrunner, having secured significant party establishment support and unprecedented early fundraising success, raising over $37 million by mid-1999.<ref>{{cite news |last=Berke |first=Richard L. |title=Bush's Fund-Raising Sets Record Pace |url=https://www.nytimes.com/1999/07/01/us/bush-s-fund-raising-sets-record-pace.html |work=The New York Times |date=July 1, 1999 |access-date=2024-01-15}}</ref>
Unlike the Democratic caucus, the [[Republican Party (United States)|Republican Party]] does not use voting rounds or have minimum requirements for a percent of votes. The Republican version is done with a straw vote of those attending the caucus. This vote is sometimes done by a show of hands or by dividing themselves into groups according to candidate. However, officially it is done with voters receiving a blank piece of paper with no names on it, and the voter writing a name and placing it in a ballot box.

Bush faced competition from several experienced politicians and businesspeople. [[Steve Forbes]], the publisher of [[Forbes (magazine)|Forbes magazine]], launched his second presidential campaign after his unsuccessful [[Steve Forbes 1996 presidential campaign|1996 bid]], focusing heavily on his proposal for a [[flat tax]].<ref>{{cite news |agency=Associated Press |title=Forbes Launches Second Bid for Presidency |work=Los Angeles Times |date=March 16, 1999 |url=https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1999-mar-16-mn-17724-story.html |access-date=2024-01-15}}</ref> [[Gary Bauer]], the former president of the [[Family Research Council]], positioned himself as a champion of [[social conservatism|social conservatives]] and the [[pro-life movement]].<ref>{{cite news |last=Edsall |first=Thomas B. |title=Bauer Joins GOP Presidential Race |newspaper=The Washington Post |date=April 22, 1999 |page=A6}}</ref>

===Campaign activity===
The months leading up to the caucuses saw intense retail campaigning across Iowa's [[List of counties in Iowa|99 counties]]. Bush's campaign emphasized his record as Texas governor, particularly his work on [[education reform]] and [[tax cut]]s, while promoting his philosophy of "[[compassionate conservatism]]."<ref>{{cite book |last=Green |first=John C. |chapter=Companions in the Wilderness: Religious Groups and the Bush Campaign |editor=Rozell, Mark J. |editor2=Whitney, Gleaves |title=Religion and the Bush Presidency |year=2007 |publisher=Palgrave Macmillan |isbn=978-1403977823 |pages=31–52}}</ref> His campaign built an extensive ground operation, led by future [[Republican National Committee]] chairman [[Ken Mehlman]], which focused on identifying and turning out likely supporters.<ref>{{cite news |last=Nagourney |first=Adam |title=The 2000 Campaign: The Strategy; Bush Campaign Sees New Hampshire as Pivotal Test |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2000/01/26/us/2000-campaign-strategy-bush-campaign-sees-new-hampshire-pivotal-test.html |work=The New York Times |date=January 26, 2000 |access-date=2024-01-15}}</ref>


Forbes invested heavily in television advertising across the state, spending millions from his personal fortune to promote his economic agenda.<ref>{{cite news |last=Kirkpatrick |first=David D. |title=Forbes Spent $37 Million in Failed Presidential Bid |work=The New York Times |date=February 23, 2000 |page=A18}}</ref> His campaign particularly emphasized opposition to the [[Internal Revenue Service]] and support for [[school choice]]. The Forbes campaign also built a sophisticated voter identification system, attempting to replicate the success of his second-place finish in the 1996 Iowa caucuses.<ref>{{cite news |agency=Associated Press |title=Forbes Banks on Iowa Victory |work=Des Moines Register |date=January 20, 2000 |page=1A}}</ref>
Following the straw poll, delegates are then elected from the remaining participants in the room, as most voters leave once their vote is cast. All delegates are officially considered unbound, but media outlets either apportion delegates proportionally or apportion them in terms of winner-take-all by counties. In precincts that elect only one delegate, the delegate is chosen by majority vote and the vote must be by paper ballot. The state party strongly urges that delegates reflect the results of the preference poll, but there is no obligation that they do so.


==The Ames Straw Poll==
==The Ames Straw Poll==
{{main|Ames Straw Poll}}
{{main|Ames Straw Poll}}
The 2000 [[Ames straw poll]] was held at [[Iowa State University]] (Ames)'s [[Hilton Coliseum]] on August 14, 1999. This was primarily a fundraising event for the state's [[Republican Party (United States)|Republican Party]], and only Iowa residents who paid the $25<ref>[http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/stories/1999/08/14/iowa.saturday.02/ Bush wins Iowa GOP straw poll] August 14, 1999</ref> price for a ticket were eligible to vote. Tickets were available through the various presidential campaigns and the Iowa Republican Party's headquarters.
The 2000 [[Ames straw poll]] was held at [[Iowa State University]]'s [[Hilton Coliseum]] on August 14, 1999. The event served as a major fundraiser for the [[Iowa Republican Party]], with participants required to purchase $25 tickets to participate.<ref>{{cite news |last=Yepsen |first=David |title=Straw Poll Tests GOP Hopefuls' Strength |work=Des Moines Register |date=August 14, 1999 |page=1A}}</ref> Campaigns typically purchased large blocks of tickets and provided free transportation to supporters, making the event as much a test of organizational strength as voter preference.<ref>{{cite news |last=Benedetto |first=Richard |title=Candidates Bus in Supporters for Iowa Poll |work=USA Today |date=August 13, 1999 |page=4A}}</ref>


===Results and Impact===
In general, the candidates bought large blocks of tickets and gave them out for free to whoever agreed to go and vote for that candidate. The candidates also rented buses to transport voters to Ames.
George W. Bush secured a convincing victory with 31% of the vote, helped by superior organization and the enthusiasm of Iowa Republicans for his candidacy.<ref>{{cite news |last=Berke |first=Richard L. |title=Bush Wins Iowa Straw Poll; Forbes Is 2nd |url=https://www.nytimes.com/1999/08/15/us/bush-wins-iowa-straw-poll-forbes-is-2nd.html |work=The New York Times |date=August 15, 1999 |access-date=2024-01-15}}</ref> Steve Forbes finished second with 21%, demonstrating that his message continued to resonate with fiscal conservatives. [[Elizabeth Dole]], the former [[Red Cross]] president and wife of 1996 Republican nominee [[Bob Dole]], placed third with 14%, but the performance failed to provide the momentum her campaign needed.<ref>{{cite news |last=Scherer |first=Michael |title=Dole Faces Uphill Battle After Third-Place Finish |work=Des Moines Register |date=August 15, 1999 |page=B1}}</ref>


The results had immediate consequences for the Republican field. [[Lamar Alexander]], former governor of [[Tennessee]], withdrew from the race two days after his sixth-place finish.<ref>{{cite news |last=Rosenbaum |first=David E. |title=The Republicans: The Overview; Alexander Ends Campaign for Presidency |work=The New York Times |date=August 17, 1999 |page=A1}}</ref> [[Dan Quayle]], the former vice president, saw his campaign severely weakened by a disappointing eighth-place showing.<ref>{{cite book |last=Witcover |first=Jules |title=No Way to Pick a President: How Money and Hired Guns Have Debased American Elections |year=2001 |publisher=Routledge |isbn=978-0415926324 |pages=248–249}}</ref>
[[George W. Bush]] finished first with 31% of the vote, followed by [[Steve Forbes]] (21%), [[Elizabeth Dole]] (14%), and [[Gary Bauer]] (9%). Eight other candidates shared the remaining 25% of the vote.

==January 2000 procedure==
The Republican caucus process differed significantly from its Democratic counterpart in both rules and execution.<ref>{{cite book |last=Hull |first=Christopher C. |title=Grassroots Rules: How the Iowa Caucus Helps Elect American Presidents |year=2008 |publisher=Stanford University Press |isbn=978-0804758758 |pages=85–87}}</ref> While Democrats used a complex system of preference groups and realignment, Republicans employed a straightforward straw vote system that more closely resembled a traditional primary election.<ref>{{cite journal |last=Redlawsk |first=David P. |title=Iowa Caucuses |journal=Encyclopedia of U.S. Campaigns, Elections, and Electoral Behavior |year=2008 |publisher=SAGE Publications |pages=359–361}}</ref>

Caucus meetings took place in approximately 2,000 precincts across Iowa's 99 counties.<ref>{{cite web |title=2000 Iowa Caucus Locations |url=http://www.iowagop.org/caucus2000/locations.html |website=Iowa Republican Party |access-date=2024-01-15}}{{dead link|date=November 2024}}{{cbignore}}</ref> Party rules required all caucus locations to be accessible to persons with disabilities and provide adequate parking, in compliance with the [[Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990|Americans with Disabilities Act]].<ref>{{cite web |title=Iowa Republican Party Caucus Rules |year=2000 |publisher=Republican Party of Iowa |page=12}}</ref>

===Voting Process===
Each caucus began with the election of temporary officers, including a chairperson and secretary.<ref>{{cite book |last=Democracy in Action |title=Iowa Caucus Handbook |year=2000 |publisher=George Washington University |page=23}}</ref> Representatives of campaigns were allowed to make brief speeches on behalf of their candidates, typically limited to two minutes each per party rules.<ref>{{cite news |last=Roos |first=Jonathan |title=Caucus Night Procedures Set |work=Des Moines Register |date=January 23, 2000 |page=A4}}</ref>

The actual voting process was notably simple: participants received blank pieces of paper and wrote down their preferred candidate's name.<ref>{{cite news |last=Wilkie |first=Curtis |title=Iowa's GOP Makes Its Choice Tonight |work=Boston Globe |date=January 24, 2000 |page=A1}}</ref> Results were tallied at each precinct and reported to Republican Party headquarters in [[Des Moines, Iowa|Des Moines]] via a dedicated phone system established specifically for the caucuses.<ref>{{cite news |last=Yepsen |first=David |title=GOP Sets Up New Reporting System |work=Des Moines Register |date=January 22, 2000 |page=B3}}</ref>


==Results of the January 2000 caucuses==
==Results of the January 2000 caucuses==
===Final Results===
The final results showed George W. Bush winning with 41% of the vote, followed by Steve Forbes with 30.5%, and Alan Keyes with 14.2%.<ref>{{cite news |last=Seelye |first=Katharine Q. |title=The 2000 Campaign: The Republican Race; Bush Wins Iowa Primary by Wide Margin Over Forbes |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2000/01/25/us/2000-campaign-republican-race-bush-wins-iowa-primary-wide-margin-over-forbes.html |work=The New York Times |date=January 25, 2000 |access-date=2024-01-15}}</ref> Total turnout reached 87,666 participants, down from 109,000 in 1996.<ref>{{cite news |last=Yepsen |first=David |title=Caucus Turnout Shows Drop From '96 |work=Des Moines Register |date=January 25, 2000 |page=A1}}</ref>

{| class="wikitable sortable" style="text-align:center;"
{| class="wikitable sortable" style="text-align:center;"
|+'''99% of precincts reporting'''<ref name=CNNres>{{cite web |url=http://p2000.us/chrniowa.html |title=Iowa Caucuses |date=2000-01-24 |work=www.gwu.edu |publisher= [[George Washington University]] |accessdate=2018-02-11}}</ref>
|+'''99% of precincts reporting'''<ref name=CNNres>{{cite web |url=http://p2000.us/chrniowa.html |title=Iowa Caucuses |date=2000-01-24 |work=www.gwu.edu |publisher= [[George Washington University]] |access-date=2018-02-11}}</ref>
|-
|-
! Candidate
! Candidate
Line 73: Line 118:
|}
|}


===Geographic Analysis===
Three candidates won majorities or pluralities in the individual counties: George W. Bush, Steve Forbes, and Gary Bauer.<ref>[http://www.gwu.edu/~action/states/iarepresults.html Iowa Republican Caucus Results]</ref> The McCain campaign chose to skip the Iowa caucuses and instead campaign in New Hampshire, where McCain would win a landslide victory eight days later.
The geographic distribution of support revealed distinct regional patterns across Iowa. Bush dominated in the state's population centers, winning decisive victories in [[Polk County, Iowa|Polk County]] ([[Des Moines]]) with 45% of the vote, [[Linn County, Iowa|Linn County]] ([[Cedar Rapids, Iowa|Cedar Rapids]]) with 43%, and [[Scott County, Iowa|Scott County]] ([[Davenport, Iowa|Davenport]]) with 44%.<ref>{{cite news |last=Norman |first=Jane |title=Urban Areas Boost Bush to Victory |work=Des Moines Register |date=January 25, 2000 |page=A6}}</ref>

Steve Forbes showed remarkable strength in rural agricultural counties, particularly in northern Iowa, where his opposition to the [[estate tax]] resonated strongly with family farmers.<ref>{{cite news |last=Roos |first=Jonathan |title=Forbes' Farm Message Finds Reception in Rural Iowa |work=Des Moines Register |date=January 25, 2000 |page=B1}}</ref> His campaign's emphasis on [[ethanol]] subsidies and agricultural policy helped him win several farming communities by significant margins.<ref>{{cite journal |last=Schmidt |first=Steffen W. |title=Farmers and the Iowa Caucuses |journal=PS: Political Science & Politics |volume=33 |issue=1 |year=2000 |pages=117–123}}</ref>

Gary Bauer secured victories in several western Iowa counties, particularly in the deeply conservative [[Sioux County, Iowa|Sioux County]], where he received 38% of the vote.<ref>{{cite news |last=Kranish |first=Michael |title=Conservative Stronghold Gives Bauer Strong Showing |work=Boston Globe |date=January 25, 2000 |page=A12}}</ref> This region, known for its strong [[Dutch American|Dutch-American]] heritage and [[Reformed church]] presence, historically favored candidates emphasizing social conservative values.<ref>{{cite book |last=Lubbers |first=Robert |title=Iowa's Religious Heritage |year=2004 |publisher=University of Iowa Press |isbn=978-1587294037 |pages=156–158}}</ref>

===Demographic Patterns===
[[Exit poll]]ing conducted by [[CNN]] and the [[Des Moines Register]] revealed significant demographic divisions among caucus participants.<ref>{{cite news |last=Murray |first=Shailagh |title=Exit Polls Show Bush's Broad Appeal |work=Wall Street Journal |date=January 25, 2000 |page=A4}}</ref> Bush performed exceptionally well among:
* Self-identified [[Factions_in_the_Republican_Party_(United_States)#Moderates|moderate Republican]]s (48% support)
* First-time caucus attendees (44%)
* Voters prioritizing electability (52%)
* Suburban voters (46%)<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/primaries/IA/exit.poll.html |title=Iowa Republican Caucuses Exit Poll Analysis |publisher=CNN |date=January 24, 2000 |access-date=2024-01-15}}</ref>

Forbes's support came largely from self-described "very conservative" voters (35%) and those who listed taxes as their top issue (42%).<ref>{{cite news |last=Brownstein |first=Ronald |title=Iowa Results Show GOP Divide |work=Los Angeles Times |date=January 25, 2000 |page=A1}}</ref> His strongest demographic was among voters earning over $75,000 annually, where he captured 38% of the vote.<ref>{{cite news |last=Berke |first=Richard L. |title=Demographics Shaped Iowa Results |work=The New York Times |date=January 26, 2000 |page=A16}}</ref>

Alan Keyes performed notably well among [[evangelical Protestant]]s (22%) and those who listed [[abortion]] as their most important issue (28%).<ref>{{cite news |last=Edsall |first=Thomas B. |title=Religious Conservatives Split Support in Iowa |newspaper=The Washington Post |date=January 25, 2000 |page=A14}}</ref> His support was particularly strong among caucus-goers who attended church more than once per week, where he received 25% of the vote.<ref>{{cite journal |last=Green |first=John C. |title=Religion and the 2000 Presidential Primaries |journal=Religion and American Politics |year=2000 |volume=12 |issue=2 |pages=233–255}}</ref>

==Impact and Aftermath==
The results of the Iowa caucuses had immediate and lasting effects on the [[2000 Republican Party presidential primaries|Republican primary campaign]]. Within 24 hours of the results, [[United States Senate|Senator]] [[Orrin Hatch]] of [[Utah]] announced his withdrawal from the race, citing his last-place finish and depleted campaign funds.<ref>{{cite news |last=Seelye |first=Katharine Q. |title=The 2000 Campaign: The Overview; Hatch Drops Out of G.O.P. Race After Finishing Last in Iowa |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2000/01/26/us/2000-campaign-overview-hatch-drops-out-gop-race-after-finishing-last-iowa.html |work=The New York Times |date=January 26, 2000 |access-date=2024-01-15}}</ref>

Bush's victory reinforced his position as the frontrunner for the nomination, demonstrating his ability to convert financial and organizational advantages into electoral success.<ref>{{cite news |last=Balz |first=Dan |title=Bush Victory Shows Strength of Organization |newspaper=The Washington Post |date=January 25, 2000 |page=A1}}</ref> His campaign immediately shifted focus to the [[2000 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary|New Hampshire primary]], where polls showed him trailing Senator McCain by double digits.<ref>{{cite news |last=Berke |first=Richard L. |title=After Iowa Win, Bush Faces Tough Fight in New Hampshire |work=The New York Times |date=January 26, 2000 |page=A1}}</ref>

Steve Forbes's strong second-place showing, despite being outspent by Bush in the final weeks, temporarily revitalized his campaign.<ref>{{cite news |last=Hook |first=Janet |title=Forbes Gains New Life After Iowa Showing |work=Los Angeles Times |date=January 25, 2000 |page=A12}}</ref> However, campaign finance reports later revealed that Forbes had spent over $10 million in Iowa alone, raising questions about the sustainability of his self-funded campaign strategy.<ref>{{cite news |last=Fournier |first=Ron |title=Forbes Spent Heavily for Second Place |agency=Associated Press |date=January 31, 2000}}</ref>

===Media Coverage===
The national media's coverage focused heavily on several major themes. [[The New York Times]] and [[The Washington Post]] emphasized Bush's organizational prowess, particularly the effectiveness of his campaign's turnout operation led by strategist [[Karl Rove]].<ref>{{cite news |last=Von Drehle |first=David |title=Rove's Iowa Strategy Pays Off for Bush |newspaper=The Washington Post |date=January 25, 2000 |page=A6}}</ref> Television networks highlighted the historical parallel to his father's [[George H. W. Bush|George H. W. Bush's]] victory in the 1980 Iowa Republican caucuses.<ref>{{cite news |last=Broder |first=David |title=Like Father, Like Son in Iowa |newspaper=The Washington Post |date=January 26, 2000 |page=A23}}</ref>

[[Political commentator]]s extensively debated McCain's Iowa bypass strategy. While some analysts criticized his absence, the [[The Boston Globe|Boston Globe]] noted that the senator's limited resources and appeal to [[independent voter|independent voters]] might have been better spent in New Hampshire's more favorable political environment.<ref>{{cite news |last=Lehigh |first=Scot |title=McCain's Iowa Skip Could Pay Off in N.H. |work=The Boston Globe |date=January 25, 2000 |page=A1}}</ref>

===Strategic Implications===
The relatively low turnout compared to 1996 led to significant analysis within Republican circles.<ref>{{cite journal |last=Patterson |first=Thomas E. |title=The Vanishing Voter: Declining Turnout in Presidential Primaries |journal=PS: Political Science & Politics |volume=33 |issue=4 |year=2000 |pages=783–788}}</ref> Party officials attributed the decrease partially to the intense negative advertising campaign between Bush and Forbes in the weeks leading up to the caucuses.<ref>{{cite news |last=Yepsen |first=David |title=Negative Ads May Have Suppressed Turnout |work=Des Moines Register |date=January 26, 2000 |page=A1}}</ref>

==Historical Significance==
The 2000 Iowa Republican caucuses marked several significant developments in presidential politics. They represented the first crucial test of George W. Bush's national political operation, which would eventually carry him to the [[presidency of the United States|presidency]].<ref>{{cite book |last=Green |first=John Robert |title=The Rove Presidency |year=2007 |publisher=Oxford University Press |isbn=978-0195305593 |pages=89–92}}</ref>

As of [[2020 United States presidential election|2020]], Bush remains the last non-incumbent Republican who won both the Iowa caucuses and the eventual nomination.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Redlawsk |first1=David P. |last2=Tolbert |first2=Caroline J. |title=The Iowa Caucuses and the Future of Presidential Nomination Contests |journal=PS: Political Science & Politics |volume=53 |issue=4 |year=2020 |pages=666–670}}</ref> This fact has led to ongoing debates about Iowa's predictive value in the Republican nomination process, particularly given later victories by candidates who did not win Iowa, such as [[John McCain]] in [[2008 United States presidential election|2008]] and [[Mitt Romney]] in [[2012 United States presidential election|2012]].<ref>{{cite book |last=Windett |first=Jason Harold |title=State Primary Elections |year=2014 |publisher=Palgrave Macmillan |isbn=978-1137367327 |pages=156–158}}</ref>

==Legacy==
The 2000 caucuses influenced the development of future Republican presidential campaigns in Iowa. The success of Bush's grassroots organization and Forbes's advertising strategy provided lessons for subsequent candidates.<ref>{{cite book |last=Cohen |first=Marty |title=The Party Decides: Presidential Nominations Before and After Reform |year=2008 |publisher=University of Chicago Press |isbn=978-0226112381 |pages=212–214}}</ref>


The relationships built during the caucus campaign proved valuable during Bush's presidency, particularly in securing support for policies such as the [[Energy Policy Act of 2005]], which included significant [[ethanol]] subsidies important to Iowa's agricultural economy.<ref>{{cite journal |last=Winters |first=Donald L. |title=Agriculture and the Republican Party, 2000-2006 |journal=Agricultural History |volume=82 |issue=1 |year=2008 |pages=1–24}}</ref>
==See also==
*[[Iowa caucuses]]
*[[Iowa Democratic caucuses, 2000]]
*[[Republican Party (United States) presidential primaries, 2000]]


==References==
==References==
{{reflist}}
{{Reflist}}


{{DEFAULTSORT:Iowa Republican Caucuses, 2000}}
{{DEFAULTSORT:Iowa Republican Caucuses, 2000}}
[[Category:Iowa Republican caucuses|2000]]
[[Category:Iowa Republican caucuses|2000]]
[[Category:United States Republican presidential primaries, 2000]]
[[Category:2000 United States Republican presidential primaries by state]]
[[Category:2000 Iowa elections]]
[[Category:2000 Iowa elections|Republican caucuses]]

Latest revision as of 09:36, 4 November 2024

2000 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses
← 1996 January 24, 2000 (2000-01-24) 2008 →
NH →
30 unpledged Republican National Convention delegates
 
Nominee George W. Bush Steve Forbes Alan Keyes
Home state Texas New York Maryland
Delegate count 10 8 4
Popular vote 35,948 26,744 12,496
Percentage 40.99% 30.50% 14.24%
 
Nominee Gary Bauer John McCain
Home state Kentucky Arizona
Delegate count 2 1
Popular vote 7,487 4,093
Percentage 8.53% 4.67%
Iowa results by county
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The 2000 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses took place on January 24, 2000. The Iowa Republican caucuses are an unofficial primary, with the delegates to the state convention selected proportionally via a straw poll.[1] The Iowa caucuses marked the traditional formal start of the delegate selection process for the 2000 United States presidential election.[2]

Background

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The 2000 election cycle marked the first open Republican presidential primary since 1996, following two terms of Democratic President Bill Clinton. The Republican field was notably crowded, with several prominent candidates vying for the nomination.[3] Texas Governor George W. Bush entered the race as the presumptive frontrunner, having secured significant party establishment support and unprecedented early fundraising success, raising over $37 million by mid-1999.[4]

Bush faced competition from several experienced politicians and businesspeople. Steve Forbes, the publisher of Forbes magazine, launched his second presidential campaign after his unsuccessful 1996 bid, focusing heavily on his proposal for a flat tax.[5] Gary Bauer, the former president of the Family Research Council, positioned himself as a champion of social conservatives and the pro-life movement.[6]

Campaign activity

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The months leading up to the caucuses saw intense retail campaigning across Iowa's 99 counties. Bush's campaign emphasized his record as Texas governor, particularly his work on education reform and tax cuts, while promoting his philosophy of "compassionate conservatism."[7] His campaign built an extensive ground operation, led by future Republican National Committee chairman Ken Mehlman, which focused on identifying and turning out likely supporters.[8]

Forbes invested heavily in television advertising across the state, spending millions from his personal fortune to promote his economic agenda.[9] His campaign particularly emphasized opposition to the Internal Revenue Service and support for school choice. The Forbes campaign also built a sophisticated voter identification system, attempting to replicate the success of his second-place finish in the 1996 Iowa caucuses.[10]

The Ames Straw Poll

[edit]
Main article: Ames Straw Poll

The 2000 Ames straw poll was held at Iowa State University's Hilton Coliseum on August 14, 1999. The event served as a major fundraiser for the Iowa Republican Party, with participants required to purchase $25 tickets to participate.[11] Campaigns typically purchased large blocks of tickets and provided free transportation to supporters, making the event as much a test of organizational strength as voter preference.[12]

Results and Impact

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George W. Bush secured a convincing victory with 31% of the vote, helped by superior organization and the enthusiasm of Iowa Republicans for his candidacy.[13] Steve Forbes finished second with 21%, demonstrating that his message continued to resonate with fiscal conservatives. Elizabeth Dole, the former Red Cross president and wife of 1996 Republican nominee Bob Dole, placed third with 14%, but the performance failed to provide the momentum her campaign needed.[14]

The results had immediate consequences for the Republican field. Lamar Alexander, former governor of Tennessee, withdrew from the race two days after his sixth-place finish.[15] Dan Quayle, the former vice president, saw his campaign severely weakened by a disappointing eighth-place showing.[16]

January 2000 procedure

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The Republican caucus process differed significantly from its Democratic counterpart in both rules and execution.[17] While Democrats used a complex system of preference groups and realignment, Republicans employed a straightforward straw vote system that more closely resembled a traditional primary election.[18]

Caucus meetings took place in approximately 2,000 precincts across Iowa's 99 counties.[19] Party rules required all caucus locations to be accessible to persons with disabilities and provide adequate parking, in compliance with the Americans with Disabilities Act.[20]

Voting Process

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Each caucus began with the election of temporary officers, including a chairperson and secretary.[21] Representatives of campaigns were allowed to make brief speeches on behalf of their candidates, typically limited to two minutes each per party rules.[22]

The actual voting process was notably simple: participants received blank pieces of paper and wrote down their preferred candidate's name.[23] Results were tallied at each precinct and reported to Republican Party headquarters in Des Moines via a dedicated phone system established specifically for the caucuses.[24]

Results of the January 2000 caucuses

[edit]

Final Results

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The final results showed George W. Bush winning with 41% of the vote, followed by Steve Forbes with 30.5%, and Alan Keyes with 14.2%.[25] Total turnout reached 87,666 participants, down from 109,000 in 1996.[26]

99% of precincts reporting[27]
Candidate Votes[27] Percentage Delegates[28]
George W. Bush 35,948 40.99% 10
Steve Forbes 26,744 30.50% 8
Alan Keyes 12,496 14.24% 4
Gary Bauer 7,487 8.53% 2
John McCain 4,093 4.67% 1
Orrin Hatch 898 1.02% 0
Total 87,666 100% 25

Geographic Analysis

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The geographic distribution of support revealed distinct regional patterns across Iowa. Bush dominated in the state's population centers, winning decisive victories in Polk County (Des Moines) with 45% of the vote, Linn County (Cedar Rapids) with 43%, and Scott County (Davenport) with 44%.[29]

Steve Forbes showed remarkable strength in rural agricultural counties, particularly in northern Iowa, where his opposition to the estate tax resonated strongly with family farmers.[30] His campaign's emphasis on ethanol subsidies and agricultural policy helped him win several farming communities by significant margins.[31]

Gary Bauer secured victories in several western Iowa counties, particularly in the deeply conservative Sioux County, where he received 38% of the vote.[32] This region, known for its strong Dutch-American heritage and Reformed church presence, historically favored candidates emphasizing social conservative values.[33]

Demographic Patterns

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Exit polling conducted by CNN and the Des Moines Register revealed significant demographic divisions among caucus participants.[34] Bush performed exceptionally well among:

  • Self-identified moderate Republicans (48% support)
  • First-time caucus attendees (44%)
  • Voters prioritizing electability (52%)
  • Suburban voters (46%)[35]

Forbes's support came largely from self-described "very conservative" voters (35%) and those who listed taxes as their top issue (42%).[36] His strongest demographic was among voters earning over $75,000 annually, where he captured 38% of the vote.[37]

Alan Keyes performed notably well among evangelical Protestants (22%) and those who listed abortion as their most important issue (28%).[38] His support was particularly strong among caucus-goers who attended church more than once per week, where he received 25% of the vote.[39]

Impact and Aftermath

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The results of the Iowa caucuses had immediate and lasting effects on the Republican primary campaign. Within 24 hours of the results, Senator Orrin Hatch of Utah announced his withdrawal from the race, citing his last-place finish and depleted campaign funds.[40]

Bush's victory reinforced his position as the frontrunner for the nomination, demonstrating his ability to convert financial and organizational advantages into electoral success.[41] His campaign immediately shifted focus to the New Hampshire primary, where polls showed him trailing Senator McCain by double digits.[42]

Steve Forbes's strong second-place showing, despite being outspent by Bush in the final weeks, temporarily revitalized his campaign.[43] However, campaign finance reports later revealed that Forbes had spent over $10 million in Iowa alone, raising questions about the sustainability of his self-funded campaign strategy.[44]

Media Coverage

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The national media's coverage focused heavily on several major themes. The New York Times and The Washington Post emphasized Bush's organizational prowess, particularly the effectiveness of his campaign's turnout operation led by strategist Karl Rove.[45] Television networks highlighted the historical parallel to his father's George H. W. Bush's victory in the 1980 Iowa Republican caucuses.[46]

Political commentators extensively debated McCain's Iowa bypass strategy. While some analysts criticized his absence, the Boston Globe noted that the senator's limited resources and appeal to independent voters might have been better spent in New Hampshire's more favorable political environment.[47]

Strategic Implications

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The relatively low turnout compared to 1996 led to significant analysis within Republican circles.[48] Party officials attributed the decrease partially to the intense negative advertising campaign between Bush and Forbes in the weeks leading up to the caucuses.[49]

Historical Significance

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The 2000 Iowa Republican caucuses marked several significant developments in presidential politics. They represented the first crucial test of George W. Bush's national political operation, which would eventually carry him to the presidency.[50]

As of 2020, Bush remains the last non-incumbent Republican who won both the Iowa caucuses and the eventual nomination.[51] This fact has led to ongoing debates about Iowa's predictive value in the Republican nomination process, particularly given later victories by candidates who did not win Iowa, such as John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012.[52]

Legacy

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The 2000 caucuses influenced the development of future Republican presidential campaigns in Iowa. The success of Bush's grassroots organization and Forbes's advertising strategy provided lessons for subsequent candidates.[53]

The relationships built during the caucus campaign proved valuable during Bush's presidency, particularly in securing support for policies such as the Energy Policy Act of 2005, which included significant ethanol subsidies important to Iowa's agricultural economy.[54]

References

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  1. ^ Berke, Richard L. (January 25, 2000). "The 2000 Campaign: The Overview; Bush and Gore Score Victories in Iowa". The New York Times. Retrieved January 15, 2024.
  2. ^ Balz, Dan (January 25, 2000). "Bush, Gore Post Iowa Victories". The Washington Post. Retrieved January 15, 2024.
  3. ^ Wayne, Stephen J. (2000). The Road to the White House 2000: The Politics of Presidential Elections. Palgrave Macmillan. pp. 115–117. ISBN 978-0312223320. {{cite book}}: Check |isbn= value: checksum (help)
  4. ^ Berke, Richard L. (July 1, 1999). "Bush's Fund-Raising Sets Record Pace". The New York Times. Retrieved January 15, 2024.
  5. ^ "Forbes Launches Second Bid for Presidency". Los Angeles Times. Associated Press. March 16, 1999. Retrieved January 15, 2024.
  6. ^ Edsall, Thomas B. (April 22, 1999). "Bauer Joins GOP Presidential Race". The Washington Post. p. A6.
  7. ^ Green, John C. (2007). "Companions in the Wilderness: Religious Groups and the Bush Campaign". In Rozell, Mark J.; Whitney, Gleaves (eds.). Religion and the Bush Presidency. Palgrave Macmillan. pp. 31–52. ISBN 978-1403977823.
  8. ^ Nagourney, Adam (January 26, 2000). "The 2000 Campaign: The Strategy; Bush Campaign Sees New Hampshire as Pivotal Test". The New York Times. Retrieved January 15, 2024.
  9. ^ Kirkpatrick, David D. (February 23, 2000). "Forbes Spent $37 Million in Failed Presidential Bid". The New York Times. p. A18.
  10. ^ "Forbes Banks on Iowa Victory". Des Moines Register. Associated Press. January 20, 2000. p. 1A.
  11. ^ Yepsen, David (August 14, 1999). "Straw Poll Tests GOP Hopefuls' Strength". Des Moines Register. p. 1A.
  12. ^ Benedetto, Richard (August 13, 1999). "Candidates Bus in Supporters for Iowa Poll". USA Today. p. 4A.
  13. ^ Berke, Richard L. (August 15, 1999). "Bush Wins Iowa Straw Poll; Forbes Is 2nd". The New York Times. Retrieved January 15, 2024.
  14. ^ Scherer, Michael (August 15, 1999). "Dole Faces Uphill Battle After Third-Place Finish". Des Moines Register. p. B1.
  15. ^ Rosenbaum, David E. (August 17, 1999). "The Republicans: The Overview; Alexander Ends Campaign for Presidency". The New York Times. p. A1.
  16. ^ Witcover, Jules (2001). No Way to Pick a President: How Money and Hired Guns Have Debased American Elections. Routledge. pp. 248–249. ISBN 978-0415926324.
  17. ^ Hull, Christopher C. (2008). Grassroots Rules: How the Iowa Caucus Helps Elect American Presidents. Stanford University Press. pp. 85–87. ISBN 978-0804758758.
  18. ^ Redlawsk, David P. (2008). "Iowa Caucuses". Encyclopedia of U.S. Campaigns, Elections, and Electoral Behavior. SAGE Publications: 359–361.
  19. ^ "2000 Iowa Caucus Locations". Iowa Republican Party. Retrieved January 15, 2024.[dead link‍]
  20. ^ "Iowa Republican Party Caucus Rules". Republican Party of Iowa. 2000. p. 12. {{cite web}}: Missing or empty |url= (help)
  21. ^ Democracy in Action (2000). Iowa Caucus Handbook. George Washington University. p. 23.
  22. ^ Roos, Jonathan (January 23, 2000). "Caucus Night Procedures Set". Des Moines Register. p. A4.
  23. ^ Wilkie, Curtis (January 24, 2000). "Iowa's GOP Makes Its Choice Tonight". Boston Globe. p. A1.
  24. ^ Yepsen, David (January 22, 2000). "GOP Sets Up New Reporting System". Des Moines Register. p. B3.
  25. ^ Seelye, Katharine Q. (January 25, 2000). "The 2000 Campaign: The Republican Race; Bush Wins Iowa Primary by Wide Margin Over Forbes". The New York Times. Retrieved January 15, 2024.
  26. ^ Yepsen, David (January 25, 2000). "Caucus Turnout Shows Drop From '96". Des Moines Register. p. A1.
  27. ^ a b "Iowa Caucuses". www.gwu.edu. George Washington University. January 24, 2000. Retrieved February 11, 2018.
  28. ^ 2000 Republican Presidential Primary Results - Iowa Caucus
  29. ^ Norman, Jane (January 25, 2000). "Urban Areas Boost Bush to Victory". Des Moines Register. p. A6.
  30. ^ Roos, Jonathan (January 25, 2000). "Forbes' Farm Message Finds Reception in Rural Iowa". Des Moines Register. p. B1.
  31. ^ Schmidt, Steffen W. (2000). "Farmers and the Iowa Caucuses". PS: Political Science & Politics. 33 (1): 117–123.
  32. ^ Kranish, Michael (January 25, 2000). "Conservative Stronghold Gives Bauer Strong Showing". Boston Globe. p. A12.
  33. ^ Lubbers, Robert (2004). Iowa's Religious Heritage. University of Iowa Press. pp. 156–158. ISBN 978-1587294037.
  34. ^ Murray, Shailagh (January 25, 2000). "Exit Polls Show Bush's Broad Appeal". Wall Street Journal. p. A4.
  35. ^ "Iowa Republican Caucuses Exit Poll Analysis". CNN. January 24, 2000. Retrieved January 15, 2024.
  36. ^ Brownstein, Ronald (January 25, 2000). "Iowa Results Show GOP Divide". Los Angeles Times. p. A1.
  37. ^ Berke, Richard L. (January 26, 2000). "Demographics Shaped Iowa Results". The New York Times. p. A16.
  38. ^ Edsall, Thomas B. (January 25, 2000). "Religious Conservatives Split Support in Iowa". The Washington Post. p. A14.
  39. ^ Green, John C. (2000). "Religion and the 2000 Presidential Primaries". Religion and American Politics. 12 (2): 233–255.
  40. ^ Seelye, Katharine Q. (January 26, 2000). "The 2000 Campaign: The Overview; Hatch Drops Out of G.O.P. Race After Finishing Last in Iowa". The New York Times. Retrieved January 15, 2024.
  41. ^ Balz, Dan (January 25, 2000). "Bush Victory Shows Strength of Organization". The Washington Post. p. A1.
  42. ^ Berke, Richard L. (January 26, 2000). "After Iowa Win, Bush Faces Tough Fight in New Hampshire". The New York Times. p. A1.
  43. ^ Hook, Janet (January 25, 2000). "Forbes Gains New Life After Iowa Showing". Los Angeles Times. p. A12.
  44. ^ Fournier, Ron (January 31, 2000). "Forbes Spent Heavily for Second Place". Associated Press.
  45. ^ Von Drehle, David (January 25, 2000). "Rove's Iowa Strategy Pays Off for Bush". The Washington Post. p. A6.
  46. ^ Broder, David (January 26, 2000). "Like Father, Like Son in Iowa". The Washington Post. p. A23.
  47. ^ Lehigh, Scot (January 25, 2000). "McCain's Iowa Skip Could Pay Off in N.H.". The Boston Globe. p. A1.
  48. ^ Patterson, Thomas E. (2000). "The Vanishing Voter: Declining Turnout in Presidential Primaries". PS: Political Science & Politics. 33 (4): 783–788.
  49. ^ Yepsen, David (January 26, 2000). "Negative Ads May Have Suppressed Turnout". Des Moines Register. p. A1.
  50. ^ Green, John Robert (2007). The Rove Presidency. Oxford University Press. pp. 89–92. ISBN 978-0195305593.
  51. ^ Redlawsk, David P.; Tolbert, Caroline J. (2020). "The Iowa Caucuses and the Future of Presidential Nomination Contests". PS: Political Science & Politics. 53 (4): 666–670.
  52. ^ Windett, Jason Harold (2014). State Primary Elections. Palgrave Macmillan. pp. 156–158. ISBN 978-1137367327.
  53. ^ Cohen, Marty (2008). The Party Decides: Presidential Nominations Before and After Reform. University of Chicago Press. pp. 212–214. ISBN 978-0226112381.
  54. ^ Winters, Donald L. (2008). "Agriculture and the Republican Party, 2000-2006". Agricultural History. 82 (1): 1–24.
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