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'''''Nuclear War: A Scenario''''' is a 2024 nonfiction book by American journalist [[Annie Jacobsen]]. It outlines a timeline of a hypothetical [[First strike (nuclear strategy)|first strike]] against the continental United States by [[North Korea]].<ref>{{Cite news |last=Borger |first=Julian |date=2024-03-31 |title='My jaw dropped': Annie Jacobsen on her scenario for nuclear war |url=https://www.theguardian.com/books/2024/mar/31/annie-jacobsen-nuclear-war-scenario |access-date=2024-04-05 |work=[[The Guardian]] |language=en-GB |issn=0261-3077}}</ref><ref name=":0">{{Cite web |last=Gewen |first=Barry |date=March 24, 2024 |title=Let's Say Someone Did Drop the Bomb. Then What? |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/24/books/review/nuclear-war-annie-jacobsen-countdown-sarah-scoles.html |access-date=April 5, 2024 |website=[[The New York Times]]}}</ref>
'''''Nuclear War: A Scenario''''' is a 2024 non-fiction book by American journalist [[Annie Jacobsen]]. It outlines a timeline of a hypothetical [[First strike (nuclear strategy)|first strike]] against the continental United States by [[North Korea]].<ref name="Borger">{{Cite news |last=Borger |first=Julian |date=2024-03-31 |title='My jaw dropped': Annie Jacobsen on her scenario for nuclear war |url=https://www.theguardian.com/books/2024/mar/31/annie-jacobsen-nuclear-war-scenario |access-date=2024-04-05 |work=[[The Guardian]] |language=en-GB |issn=0261-3077}}</ref><ref name=":0">{{Cite web |last=Gewen |first=Barry |date=March 24, 2024 |title=Let's Say Someone Did Drop the Bomb. Then What? |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/24/books/review/nuclear-war-annie-jacobsen-countdown-sarah-scoles.html |access-date=April 5, 2024 |website=[[The New York Times]]}}</ref>


==Content==
==Content==
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The book then shows a minute-by-minute breakdown from multiple perspectives of a scenario in 2024 where nuclear world war erupts. In minute 0, [[North Korea]] unleashes a [[surprise attack]], launching a [[Hwasong-17]] [[Intercontinental ballistic missile|ICBM]] with a 1-megaton thermonuclear warhead at [[the Pentagon]] in [[Washington, D.C.]] America immediately detects the threat, but has no system to eliminate the North Korean ICBM during its [[boost phase]] when satellites still can detect it. America's long-range missile defenses consist of 44 [[Anti-ballistic missile|interceptor missiles]], of which 4 are fired from [[California]] at the Hwasong, but all miss in minute 9. The American president's evacuation delays the American nuclear response. By minute 16, North Korea launches a [[Pukguksong-1]] [[Submarine-launched ballistic missile|SLBM]] with a thermonuclear warhead from 350 miles from California, but America's short-range missile defenses ([[Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System|Aegis]] and [[THAAD]]) were deployed too far from America to interfere. By minute 23, the North Korean SLBM successfully strikes the [[Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant]] in California, causing a [[nuclear meltdown]]. In minute 24, America initiates a nuclear attack on North Korea after the American president's approval, but due to a lack of travelling range, the American [[Minuteman III]] ICBMs must fly over [[Russia]] to reach North Korea.
The book then shows a minute-by-minute breakdown from multiple perspectives of a scenario in 2024 where nuclear world war erupts. In minute 0, [[North Korea]] unleashes a [[surprise attack]], launching a [[Hwasong-17]] [[Intercontinental ballistic missile|ICBM]] with a 1-megaton thermonuclear warhead at [[the Pentagon]] in [[Washington, D.C.]] America immediately detects the threat, but has no system to eliminate the North Korean ICBM during its [[boost phase]] when satellites still can detect it. America's long-range missile defenses consist of 44 [[Anti-ballistic missile|interceptor missiles]], of which 4 are fired from [[California]] at the Hwasong, but all miss in minute 9. The American president's evacuation delays the American nuclear response. By minute 16, North Korea launches a [[Pukguksong-1]] [[Submarine-launched ballistic missile|SLBM]] with a thermonuclear warhead from 350 miles from California, but America's short-range missile defenses ([[Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System|Aegis]] and [[THAAD]]) were deployed too far from America to interfere. By minute 23, the North Korean SLBM successfully strikes the [[Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant]] in California, causing a [[nuclear meltdown]]. In minute 24, America initiates a nuclear attack on North Korea after the American president's approval, but due to a lack of travelling range, the American [[Minuteman III]] ICBMs must fly over [[Russia]] to reach North Korea.


The North Korean ICBM obliterates Washington D.C. in minute 33, stranding and incapacitating the American president while he is being evacuated. Within the next 10 minutes, Russia's flawed [[EKS (satellite system)|Tundra]] satellite system overestimates America's 50 Minuteman ICBMs and 8 [[Trident (missile)|Trident]] SLBMs to number in the hundreds, enough to devastate Russia. Having not heard from the American president and aware of America's past lies during wartime, the paranoid Russian president believes that America has launched against Russia. By minute 45, the Russian president orders an all-out attack on America and perceived hostile countries in [[NATO]] and Europe; in minute 50, America detects the impending Russian attack and launches its own all-out nuclear attack on 975 targets in Russia. From minute 52, North Korea is struck by 82 American nuclear warheads. At minute 55, North Korea detonates a nuclear warhead in a satellite orbiting 300 miles above America, generating a [[electromagnetic pulse]] that cripples America's [[power grid]]s, [[microprocessor]]s and [[SCADA]] systems. At minute 57, Russian SLBMs destroy America's nuclear warfighting facilities and overwhelm the [[nuclear bunker]] at [[Raven Rock Mountain Complex]], killing the nearby American president. At minute 58, European countries including [[Albania]], [[Belgium]], [[Croatia]], [[England]], [[Estonia]], [[Finland]], [[France]], [[Germany]], [[Greece]], [[Italy]], [[Netherlands]], [[Norway]], [[Sweden]], [[Turkey]], and [[Ukraine]] are struck by Russian nuclear warheads. By minute 92 of the conflict, America was struck by around 1,000 more Russian nuclear warheads.
The North Korean ICBM obliterates Washington D.C. in minute 33, stranding and incapacitating the American president while he is being evacuated. Within the next 10 minutes, Russia's flawed [[EKS (satellite system)|Tundra]] satellite system overestimates America's 50 Minuteman ICBMs and 8 [[Trident (missile)|Trident]] SLBMs to number in the hundreds, enough to devastate Russia. Having not heard from the American president and aware of America's past lies during wartime, the paranoid Russian president believes that America has launched against Russia. By minute 45, the Russian president orders an all-out attack on America and perceived hostile countries in [[NATO]] and Europe; in minute 50, America detects the impending Russian attack and launches its own all-out nuclear attack on 975 targets in Russia. From minute 52, North Korea is struck by 82 American nuclear warheads. At minute 55, North Korea detonates a nuclear warhead in a satellite orbiting 300 miles above America, generating a [[electromagnetic pulse]] that cripples America's [[power grid]]s, [[microprocessor]]s and [[SCADA]] systems. At minute 57, Russian SLBMs destroy America's nuclear warfighting facilities and overwhelm the [[nuclear bunker]] at [[Raven Rock Mountain Complex]], killing the nearby American president. At minute 58, European countries including [[Albania]], [[Belgium]], [[Bulgaria]], [[Croatia]], [[Estonia]], [[Finland]], [[France]], [[Germany]], [[Greece]], [[Italy]], [[Netherlands]], [[Norway]], [[Sweden]], [[Turkey]], [[Ukraine]] and the [[United Kingdom]] are struck by Russian nuclear warheads. By minute 92 of the conflict, America was struck by around 1,000 more Russian nuclear warheads. By this time, hundreds of millions of people have been killed. The nuclear war ends less than two hours after it began, leaving most of the Northern Hemisphere decimated and uninhabitable.


The nuclear conflict causes fires in the Northern Hemisphere that trigger [[nuclear winter]], preventing [[agriculture]] and killing plants, upending food chains. Small animals thrive, while larger animals are nearly wiped out. Humanity experiences widespread [[famine]], with few exceptions including the southernmost countries of [[Australia]], [[New Zealand]], [[Argentina]] and parts of [[Paraguay]]. [[Nuclear fallout]] causes [[radiation poisoning]]. After months, as nuclear winter ends, the [[ozone layer]], damaged by nuclear war, fails to shield life from the Sun's [[ultraviolet]] rays, forcing humanity to live underground, while insects and plagues from thawing corpses spread aboveground. The Earth itself takes 24,000 years to recover from nuclear war, while humanity's fate is unmentioned. The author concludes that the “enemy” was no country or group, but nuclear weapons.
The nuclear conflict causes fires that trigger [[nuclear winter]], preventing [[agriculture]] and killing plants, upending food chains. Small animals thrive, while larger animals are nearly wiped out. Humanity experiences widespread [[famine]], with few exceptions including the southernmost countries of [[Australia]], [[New Zealand]], [[Argentina]] and parts of [[Paraguay]]. [[Nuclear fallout]] causes [[radiation poisoning]]. After months, as nuclear winter ends, the [[ozone layer]], damaged by nuclear war, fails to shield life from the Sun's [[ultraviolet]] rays, forcing humanity to live underground, while insects and plagues from thawing corpses spread aboveground. The Earth itself takes 24,000 years to recover from nuclear war, while humanity's fate is unmentioned. The author concludes that the “enemy” was no country or group, but nuclear weapons.

==Conclusions==
Jacobsen has said "You would want to have a commander-in-chief who is of sound mind, who is fully in control of his mental capacity, who is not volatile, who is not subject to anger. These are significant character qualities that should be thought about when people vote for president, for the simple reason that the president has sole authority to launch nuclear weapons."<ref name="Borger" />


==Adaptation==
==Adaptation==
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==Reception==
==Reception==
The book has been well received by the public with the book holding a 4.54 out of 5 rating on [[Goodreads]], and 4.6 out of 5 on Amazon.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Nuclear War: A Scenario |url=https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/182733784-nuclear-war |access-date=2024-05-30 |website=Goodreads |language=en}}</ref>

Barry Gewen, in the ''[[The New York Times|New York Times]]'', said of ''Nuclear War: A Scenario'' that "Jacobsen, the author of “The Pentagon’s Brain,” has done her homework. She has spent more than a decade interviewing dozens of experts while mastering the voluminous literature on the subject, some of it declassified only in recent years." However, he does raise a question, stating that "If she favors abolishing nuclear weapons altogether, she owes it to her readers to say so, and then explain how it could be done. How do we get from here to there?"<ref name=":0" />
Barry Gewen, in the ''[[The New York Times|New York Times]]'', said of ''Nuclear War: A Scenario'' that "Jacobsen, the author of “The Pentagon’s Brain,” has done her homework. She has spent more than a decade interviewing dozens of experts while mastering the voluminous literature on the subject, some of it declassified only in recent years." However, he does raise a question, stating that "If she favors abolishing nuclear weapons altogether, she owes it to her readers to say so, and then explain how it could be done. How do we get from here to there?"<ref name=":0" />


Interviewing Jacobsen herself, Kathy Gilsinan of ''Politico'' writes that "Nuclear war would be bad. Everyone knows this. Most people would probably rather not think through the specifics. But Annie Jacobsen, an author of seven books on sensitive national security topics, wants you to know exactly how bad it would be."<ref>{{Cite web |last=Gilsinan |first=Kathy |date=April 29, 2024 |title=72 Minutes Until the End of the World? |url=https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/04/29/the-frighteningly-fast-path-to-nuclear-armageddon-00154591 |access-date=May 29, 2024 |website=Politico}}</ref>
Interviewing Jacobsen herself, Kathy Gilsinan of ''Politico'' writes that "Nuclear war would be bad. Everyone knows this. Most people would probably rather not think through the specifics. But Annie Jacobsen, an author of seven books on sensitive national security topics, wants you to know exactly how bad it would be."<ref>{{Cite web |last=Gilsinan |first=Kathy |date=April 29, 2024 |title=72 Minutes Until the End of the World? |url=https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/04/29/the-frighteningly-fast-path-to-nuclear-armageddon-00154591 |access-date=May 29, 2024 |website=Politico}}</ref>

Mike Riggs writing for ''[[Reason (magazine)|Reason]]'' magazine wrote that the book is a "[[Disaster pornography|disaster porn]] thriller".<ref>{{Cite web |last=Riggs |first=Mike |date=2024-08-24 |title=Nuclear War: A Scenario' is a disaster porn thriller' |url=https://reason.com/2024/08/24/nuclear-disaster-porn/ |access-date=2024-08-27 |website=Reason.com |language=en-US}}</ref>


In a more mixed case, Steven Poole of ''[[The Daily Telegraph|The Telegraph]]'' praises the book for its factual basis and research, but criticizes the prose as being "overblown", remarking that "In terms of style, Nuclear War appears to have been written for those who find the novels of Dan Brown too sophisticated. Pulp-thrillerish one-sentence paragraphs abound." However, he concludes on a positive note, appraising it as "a more accessible and deeper compendium of the unsettling facts about nuclear history, planning, and devastation[...]".<ref>{{Cite news |last=Poole |first=Steven |date=2024-03-28 |title=This is how nuclear war would begin – in terrifying detail |url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/books/non-fiction/review-annie-jacobsen-nuclear-war-scenario/ |access-date=2024-05-30 |work=The Telegraph |language=en-GB |issn=0307-1235}}</ref>
In a more mixed case, Steven Poole of ''[[The Daily Telegraph|The Telegraph]]'' praises the book for its factual basis and research, but criticizes the prose as being "overblown", remarking that "In terms of style, Nuclear War appears to have been written for those who find the novels of Dan Brown too sophisticated. Pulp-thrillerish one-sentence paragraphs abound." However, he concludes on a positive note, appraising it as "a more accessible and deeper compendium of the unsettling facts about nuclear history, planning, and devastation[...]".<ref>{{Cite news |last=Poole |first=Steven |date=2024-03-28 |title=This is how nuclear war would begin – in terrifying detail |url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/books/non-fiction/review-annie-jacobsen-nuclear-war-scenario/ |access-date=2024-05-30 |work=The Telegraph |language=en-GB |issn=0307-1235}}</ref>


In contrast, Peter Huessy of ''[[Global Security Review]]'' has an almost entirely negative appraisal of the work, remarking that "Although there are additional areas where Jacobsen incorporates inaccurate information into her scenario, the point is clear. Annie Jacobsen’s Nuclear War: A Scenario would be far more accurately titled, Nuclear War: A Novel or Nuclear War: Disarmament Propaganda".<ref>{{Cite web |last=Huessy |first=Peter |date=2024-04-11 |title=Annie Jacobsen Gets It Wrong about Nuclear Deterrence |url=https://globalsecurityreview.com/annie-jacobsen-gets-it-wrong-about-nuclear-deterrence/ |access-date=2024-05-30 |website=Global Security Review |language=en-US}}</ref> However, according to two websites affiliated with organizations that he works with, "His specialty is developing and implementing public policy campaigns to secure support for important national security objectives."<ref>{{Cite web |title= Peter Huessy - Nuclear Security Working Group|url=https://nuclearsecurityworkinggroup.org/members/mr-peter-huessy/ |access-date=2024-08-08 |website=Nuclear Security Working Group |date=11 June 2024 |language=en-US}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=Peter Huessy - The National Institute for Deterrence Studies (NIDS) |url=https://thinkdeterrence.com/peter-huessy/ |access-date=2024-08-08 |website=The National Institute for Deterence Studies |language=en-US}}</ref>
In contrast, Peter Huessy of ''[[Global Security Review]]'' has an almost entirely negative appraisal of the work, remarking that "Although there are additional areas where Jacobsen incorporates inaccurate information into her scenario, the point is clear. Annie Jacobsen’s Nuclear War: A Scenario would be far more accurately titled, Nuclear War: A Novel or Nuclear War: Disarmament Propaganda".<ref>{{Cite web |last=Huessy |first=Peter |date=2024-04-11 |title=Annie Jacobsen Gets It Wrong about Nuclear Deterrence |url=https://globalsecurityreview.com/annie-jacobsen-gets-it-wrong-about-nuclear-deterrence/ |access-date=2024-05-30 |website=Global Security Review |language=en-US}}</ref>


==See also==
==See also==
* [[The Day After]]
* [[Nuclear war]]
* [[Nuclear war]]
* [[The 2020 Commission Report on the North Korean Nuclear Attacks Against the United States]]
* [[The 2020 Commission Report on the North Korean Nuclear Attacks Against the United States]]
* [[Arms control]]


==References==
==References==

Latest revision as of 20:43, 27 November 2024

Nuclear War: A Scenario
AuthorAnnie Jacobsen
LanguageEnglish
GenreNonfiction
Published2024 (Dutton)
Publication placeUnited States
ISBN978-0593476093

Nuclear War: A Scenario is a 2024 non-fiction book by American journalist Annie Jacobsen. It outlines a timeline of a hypothetical first strike against the continental United States by North Korea.[1][2]

Content

[edit]

The book covers standard American military protocol in the event of a nuclear first strike against the United States. It particularly highlights launch on warning as a dangerous and potentially catastrophic policy of nuclear armed nations, and concludes that any nuclear conflict has the potential to end in near-total human extinction.[3]

The book first discusses the Single Integrated Operational Plan, from a witness account by John H. Rubel, who detailed that in 1960, American military officials planned for a potential preemptive nuclear attack on the Soviet Union which would kill at least 600 million people, around half of whom would be from the Soviet Union's neighboring countries; Rubel said that America's top military officials lauded the plan, with only General David M. Shoup dissenting.

The book then shows a minute-by-minute breakdown from multiple perspectives of a scenario in 2024 where nuclear world war erupts. In minute 0, North Korea unleashes a surprise attack, launching a Hwasong-17 ICBM with a 1-megaton thermonuclear warhead at the Pentagon in Washington, D.C. America immediately detects the threat, but has no system to eliminate the North Korean ICBM during its boost phase when satellites still can detect it. America's long-range missile defenses consist of 44 interceptor missiles, of which 4 are fired from California at the Hwasong, but all miss in minute 9. The American president's evacuation delays the American nuclear response. By minute 16, North Korea launches a Pukguksong-1 SLBM with a thermonuclear warhead from 350 miles from California, but America's short-range missile defenses (Aegis and THAAD) were deployed too far from America to interfere. By minute 23, the North Korean SLBM successfully strikes the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant in California, causing a nuclear meltdown. In minute 24, America initiates a nuclear attack on North Korea after the American president's approval, but due to a lack of travelling range, the American Minuteman III ICBMs must fly over Russia to reach North Korea.

The North Korean ICBM obliterates Washington D.C. in minute 33, stranding and incapacitating the American president while he is being evacuated. Within the next 10 minutes, Russia's flawed Tundra satellite system overestimates America's 50 Minuteman ICBMs and 8 Trident SLBMs to number in the hundreds, enough to devastate Russia. Having not heard from the American president and aware of America's past lies during wartime, the paranoid Russian president believes that America has launched against Russia. By minute 45, the Russian president orders an all-out attack on America and perceived hostile countries in NATO and Europe; in minute 50, America detects the impending Russian attack and launches its own all-out nuclear attack on 975 targets in Russia. From minute 52, North Korea is struck by 82 American nuclear warheads. At minute 55, North Korea detonates a nuclear warhead in a satellite orbiting 300 miles above America, generating a electromagnetic pulse that cripples America's power grids, microprocessors and SCADA systems. At minute 57, Russian SLBMs destroy America's nuclear warfighting facilities and overwhelm the nuclear bunker at Raven Rock Mountain Complex, killing the nearby American president. At minute 58, European countries including Albania, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Turkey, Ukraine and the United Kingdom are struck by Russian nuclear warheads. By minute 92 of the conflict, America was struck by around 1,000 more Russian nuclear warheads. By this time, hundreds of millions of people have been killed. The nuclear war ends less than two hours after it began, leaving most of the Northern Hemisphere decimated and uninhabitable.

The nuclear conflict causes fires that trigger nuclear winter, preventing agriculture and killing plants, upending food chains. Small animals thrive, while larger animals are nearly wiped out. Humanity experiences widespread famine, with few exceptions including the southernmost countries of Australia, New Zealand, Argentina and parts of Paraguay. Nuclear fallout causes radiation poisoning. After months, as nuclear winter ends, the ozone layer, damaged by nuclear war, fails to shield life from the Sun's ultraviolet rays, forcing humanity to live underground, while insects and plagues from thawing corpses spread aboveground. The Earth itself takes 24,000 years to recover from nuclear war, while humanity's fate is unmentioned. The author concludes that the “enemy” was no country or group, but nuclear weapons.

Conclusions

[edit]

Jacobsen has said "You would want to have a commander-in-chief who is of sound mind, who is fully in control of his mental capacity, who is not volatile, who is not subject to anger. These are significant character qualities that should be thought about when people vote for president, for the simple reason that the president has sole authority to launch nuclear weapons."[1]

Adaptation

[edit]

In April 2024, it was announced that production studio Legendary Entertainment purchased the rights to adapt the book into a film, with Canadian director Denis Villeneuve set to direct.[4]

Publication history

[edit]

Reception

[edit]

Barry Gewen, in the New York Times, said of Nuclear War: A Scenario that "Jacobsen, the author of “The Pentagon’s Brain,” has done her homework. She has spent more than a decade interviewing dozens of experts while mastering the voluminous literature on the subject, some of it declassified only in recent years." However, he does raise a question, stating that "If she favors abolishing nuclear weapons altogether, she owes it to her readers to say so, and then explain how it could be done. How do we get from here to there?"[2]

Interviewing Jacobsen herself, Kathy Gilsinan of Politico writes that "Nuclear war would be bad. Everyone knows this. Most people would probably rather not think through the specifics. But Annie Jacobsen, an author of seven books on sensitive national security topics, wants you to know exactly how bad it would be."[5]

Mike Riggs writing for Reason magazine wrote that the book is a "disaster porn thriller".[6]

In a more mixed case, Steven Poole of The Telegraph praises the book for its factual basis and research, but criticizes the prose as being "overblown", remarking that "In terms of style, Nuclear War appears to have been written for those who find the novels of Dan Brown too sophisticated. Pulp-thrillerish one-sentence paragraphs abound." However, he concludes on a positive note, appraising it as "a more accessible and deeper compendium of the unsettling facts about nuclear history, planning, and devastation[...]".[7]

In contrast, Peter Huessy of Global Security Review has an almost entirely negative appraisal of the work, remarking that "Although there are additional areas where Jacobsen incorporates inaccurate information into her scenario, the point is clear. Annie Jacobsen’s Nuclear War: A Scenario would be far more accurately titled, Nuclear War: A Novel or Nuclear War: Disarmament Propaganda".[8]

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^ a b Borger, Julian (2024-03-31). "'My jaw dropped': Annie Jacobsen on her scenario for nuclear war". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2024-04-05.
  2. ^ a b Gewen, Barry (March 24, 2024). "Let's Say Someone Did Drop the Bomb. Then What?". The New York Times. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
  3. ^ Mechanic, Michael (2024-04-01). "An interview with Annie Jacobsen, author of 'Nuclear War: A Scenario'". Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
  4. ^ Fleming, Mike (2024-04-04). "Legendary, 'Dune' Helmer Denis Villeneuve Re-Team On 'Nuclear War: A Scenario'". Deadline.
  5. ^ Gilsinan, Kathy (April 29, 2024). "72 Minutes Until the End of the World?". Politico. Retrieved May 29, 2024.
  6. ^ Riggs, Mike (2024-08-24). "Nuclear War: A Scenario' is a disaster porn thriller'". Reason.com. Retrieved 2024-08-27.
  7. ^ Poole, Steven (2024-03-28). "This is how nuclear war would begin – in terrifying detail". The Telegraph. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 2024-05-30.
  8. ^ Huessy, Peter (2024-04-11). "Annie Jacobsen Gets It Wrong about Nuclear Deterrence". Global Security Review. Retrieved 2024-05-30.

Further reading

[edit]