2022 Arizona gubernatorial election

For related races, see 2022 United States gubernatorial elections.

2022 Arizona gubernatorial election

November 8, 2022
Turnout	62.6% 2.29pp
Nominee Katie Hobbs Kari Lake Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 1,287,891 1,270,774 Percentage 50.32% 49.65%
Hobbs:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Lake:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Tie:      40–50%      50%      No data
Governor before election Doug Ducey Republican Elected Governor Katie Hobbs Democratic

The 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election occurred on November 8, 2022, to elect the next governor of Arizona, concurrently with other federal and state elections. Incumbent Republican Governor Doug Ducey was term-limited and ineligible to run for a third consecutive term. Democratic Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs narrowly defeated Republican former television journalist Kari Lake.

Primaries were held on August 2 for both parties, with Lake winning the Republican nomination and Hobbs winning the Democratic nomination, making this the first gubernatorial election in Arizona history in which both major party candidates for governor were women. Hobbs became the fifth female governor of Arizona, with Arizona setting a record for the most female governors in American history. With the concurrent passage of Proposition 131, this was the last gubernatorial election in Arizona without a lieutenant governor on the ticket.

Going into the election, most polling had Lake leading and analysts generally considered the race to either be a tossup or leaning towards the Republican. Nonetheless, Hobbs won with 50.32% of the vote, becoming the first Democrat elected governor of Arizona since Janet Napolitano in 2006. This was the first gubernatorial election in the state since 2002 in which the margin of victory was less than 10 percent. Lake refused to concede and filed a post-election lawsuit in an attempt to overturn the results. Most of her lawsuit was rejected by all three levels of Arizona's state courts, with the remaining part dismissed at trial in May 2023. The race was riddled with voting machine issues, but did not prove to show any evidence of election fraud.

This race was one of six Republican-held governorships up for election in 2022 in a state Joe Biden won in the 2020 presidential election. With a margin of 0.67%, it was the closest election in the state since the 1990–91 gubernatorial election and of the 2022 gubernatorial election cycle. According to Ron Brownstein of CNN in 2023, Hobbs won independent voters by 7 percentage points, which contributed to Lake's defeat.

Republican primary

Candidates

Former Arizona Board of Regents member Karrin Taylor Robson finished second in the primary.

Nominee

• Kari Lake, former KSAZ-TV news anchor

Eliminated in primary

• Scott Neely, businessman
• Karrin Taylor Robson, land developer and member of the Arizona Board of Regents
• Paola Tulliani-Zen, businesswoman

Withdrew

• Steve Gaynor, businessman and nominee for Arizona Secretary of State in 2018
• Matt Salmon, former U.S. representative for Arizona's 1st congressional district and nominee for governor in 2002 (endorsed Robson)
• Kimberly Yee, Arizona State Treasurer (running for re-election)

Declined

• Kirk Adams, former Chief of Staff to Governor Doug Ducey and former Speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives
• Andy Biggs, U.S. representative for Arizona's 5th congressional district (endorsed Salmon)
• Mark Brnovich, Arizona Attorney General (ran for the U.S. Senate)
• Steve Chucri, Maricopa County supervisor
• David Schweikert, U.S. representative for Arizona's 6th congressional district (endorsed Salmon)
• Kelli Ward, chair of the Arizona Republican Party, former state senator and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2018

Endorsements

Kari Lake

U.S. Executive Branch officials

• Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)

State legislators

• Wendy Rogers, member of the Arizona Senate from the 6th district (2021–2023)

Individuals

• Mike Lindell, founder of My Pillow
• Rob Schneider, comedian and actor
• Peter Thiel, entrepreneur and venture capitalist

Organizations

• American Conservative Union

Karrin Taylor Robson

U.S. Executive Branch officials

• Mike Pence, 48th vice president of the United States (2017–2021)

U.S. representatives

• Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the United States House of Representatives (1995–1999) and former U.S. representative for Georgia's 6th congressional district (1979–1999)

Governors

• Jan Brewer, former governor of Arizona (2009–2015)
• Doug Ducey, Governor of Arizona (2015–2023)
• Brad Little, Governor of Idaho (2019–present).
• Fife Symington, former governor of Arizona (1990–1997)

State officials

• Lea Marquez Peterson, Chair of the Arizona Corporation Commission (2019–present)

Individuals

• Stephen Moore, conservative writer and economist

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Kari Lake	Karrin Taylor Robson	Undecided	Margin
Real Clear Politics	July 27 – August 1, 2022	August 2, 2022	47.8%	38.5%	13.7%	Lake +9.3

Graphical summary

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Steve Gaynor	Kari Lake	Karrin Taylor Robson	Matt Salmon	Kimberly Yee	Other	Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)	July 30 – August 1, 2022	1,064 (LV)	± 2.9%	–	49%	38%	3%	–	4%	6%
Emerson College	July 28–30, 2022	600 (LV)	± 3.9%	–	46%	47%	–	–	3%	4%
Rasmussen Reports	July 27–28, 2022	710 (LV)	± 4.0%	–	43%	34%	–	–	12%	11%
OH Predictive Insights	July 27, 2022	502 (LV)	± 4.4%	–	51%	33%	2%	–	2%	12%
The Trafalgar Group (R)	July 25–27, 2022	1,071 (LV)	± 2.9%	–	48%	39%	2%	–	4%	7%
Alloy Analytics (R)	July 24–26, 2022	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	–	45%	35%	2%	–	2%	15%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	July 22–24, 2022	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	–	43%	43%	–	–	–	14%
Data Orbital (R)	July 18–20, 2022	550 (LV)	± 4.3%	–	44%	32%	5%	–	4%	15%
Cygnal (R)	July 12–13, 2022	419 (LV)	± 4.8%	–	45%	34%	3%	–	4%	14%
Data Orbital (R)	July 5–7, 2022	550 (LV)	± 4.3%	–	39%	35%	2%	–	6%	19%
HighGround Public Affairs (R)	July 2–7, 2022	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	–	39%	35%	–	–	4%	21%
OH Predictive Insights	June 30 – July 2, 2022	515 (LV)	± 4.3%	–	39%	31%	6%	–	3%	21%
				–	40%	35%	–	–	5%	21%
	June 28, 2022	Salmon withdraws from the race and endorses Robson
Data Orbital (R)	June 24–26, 2022	550 (LV)	± 4.3%	–	33%	24%	7%	–	4%	33%
Moore Information Group (R)	June 22–23, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.1%	–	37%	38%	–	–	11%	14%
The Trafalgar Group (R)	June 14–16, 2022	1,068 (LV)	± 2.9%	–	39%	27%	15%	–	3%	17%
Data Orbital (R)	June 1–3, 2022	550 (LV)	± 4.3%	–	27%	23%	12%	–	4%	31%
OH Predictive Insights	May 9–16, 2022	281 (LV)	± 5.9%	–	23%	21%	14%	–	4%	38%
Cygnal (R)	April 28–30, 2022	– (LV)	–	–	47%	22%	7%	–	5%	19%
	April 28, 2022	Gaynor withdraws from the race
The Trafalgar Group (R)	April 25–28, 2022	1,064 (LV)	± 3.0%	6%	38%	27%	11%	–	4%	14%
OH Predictive Insights	April 4–5, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	3%	29%	22%	11%	–	–	36%
Data Orbital (R)	April 1–3, 2022	550 (LV)	± 4.3%	7%	35%	22%	12%	–	–	24%
HighGround Public Affairs (R)	March 26–27, 2022	264 (LV)	± 6.0%	3%	30%	10%	5%	–	6%	46%
Alloy Analytics (R)	March 9–12, 2022	433 (LV)	± 4.7%	4%	37%	15%	9%	–	–	34%
Data Orbital (R)	March 2022	– (LV)	–	4%	43%	13%	15%	–	–	26%
Data Orbital (R)	February 11–13, 2022	300 (LV)	± 5.7%	8%	37%	9%	13%	–	–	34%
	January 15, 2022	Yee withdraws from the race
OH Predictive Insights	January 11–13, 2022	302 (RV)	± 5.6%	5%	21%	6%	17%	5%	1%	46%
OH Predictive Insights	November 1–8, 2021	252 (RV)	± 6.2%	2%	28%	1%	11%	6%	1%	51%
OH Predictive Insights	September 7–12, 2021	311 (RV)	± 5.6%	5%	25%	1%	9%	6%	2%	53%
HighGround Public Affairs (R)	May 3–5, 2021	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	–	10%	0%	8%	4%	9%	66%

Hypothetical polling

Karrin Taylor Robson vs. Matt Salmon

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Karrin Taylor Robson	Matt Salmon	Undecided
WPA Intelligence (R)	May 12–13, 2021	534 (LV)	± 4.4%	10%	42%	48%

Results

Results by county

  Lake

•   40–50%
•   50–60%

Republican primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Kari Lake	398,860	47.97%
	Republican	Karrin Taylor Robson	358,662	43.13%
	Republican	Matt Salmon (withdrawn)	30,704	3.69%
	Republican	Scott Neely	25,876	3.11%
	Republican	Paola Tulliani-Zen	17,281	2.08%
	Write-in		105	0.01%
Total votes			831,508	100.0%

Democratic primary

Former CBP chief of staff Marco López Jr. finished second in the primary.

Candidates

Nominee

• Katie Hobbs, Arizona Secretary of State

Eliminated in primary

• Marco López Jr., former Chief of Staff for the U.S. Customs and Border Protection and former mayor of Nogales

Withdrawn

• Aaron Lieberman, former state representative for the 28th district

Declined

• Charlene Fernandez, Minority Leader of the Arizona House of Representatives
• Kate Gallego, Mayor of Phoenix
• Ruben Gallego, U.S. representative for Arizona's 7th congressional district (running for re-election)
• Tom O'Halleran, U.S. representative for Arizona's 1st congressional district (running for re-election)
• Greg Stanton, U.S. representative for Arizona's 9th congressional district and former mayor of Phoenix (running for re-election)

Endorsements

Katie Hobbs

State representatives

• Richard Andrade, state representative for Arizona's 29th legislative district

Marco López Jr.

State legislator

• Art Hamilton, state representative for the 22nd district (1973–1999)

Organization

• Latino Victory Fund

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Katie Hobbs	Aaron Lieberman	Marco López Jr.	Other	Undecided
	May 27, 2022	Lieberman suspends his campaign
OH Predictive Insights	May 9–16, 2022	261 (LV)	± 6.1%	43%	9%	8%	–	40%
GQR Research (D)	May 9–15, 2022	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	49%	10%	20%	2%	19%
HighGround Public Affairs (R)	March 26–27, 2022	234 (LV)	± 6.4%	27%	1%	9%	3%	57%
OH Predictive Insights	January 11–13, 2022	274 (RV)	± 5.9%	46%	5%	9%	–	39%
				–	23%	27%	–	50%
OH Predictive Insights	November 1–8, 2021	229 (RV)	± 6.5%	42%	6%	8%	–	44%
OH Predictive Insights	September 7–12, 2021	283 (RV)	± 5.8%	40%	8%	10%	–	42%

Results

Results by county

  Hobbs

•   40–50%
•   50–60%
•   60–70%
•   70–80%

  Lopez

•   50–60%

Democratic primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Katie Hobbs	431,059	72.32%
	Democratic	Marco A. López Jr.	136,090	22.83%
	Democratic	Aaron Lieberman (withdrawn)	28,878	4.85%
Total votes			596,027	100.0%

Libertarian primary

Barry Hess, the sole Libertarian primary candidate

Candidates

Eliminated in primary

• Barry Hess, perennial candidate

Results

Write-in candidate Barry Hess was unopposed in the Libertarian primary, but failed to secure the minimum number of votes to receive the nomination.

Libertarian primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Libertarian	Barry Hess (write-in)	550	100.0%
Total votes			550	100.0%

Certified write-in candidates

William Pounds, write-in candidate for the Independent Green Party

• Anthony Camboni (independent)
• Steph Denny (Republican)
• Mikki Lutes-Burton (Libertarian)
• Shawn Merrill (independent)
• Alice Novoa (Republican)
• William Pounds IV (Independent-Green)
• Liana West (Green)

General election

Lake was criticized for her denial of Joe Biden's victory in the 2020 presidential election. She had made her closeness to former president Donald Trump central to her campaign. Hobbs refused to debate Lake, which became a highly discussed issue of the campaign, resulting in criticism from Republicans. On October 16, 2022, Lake twice refused to say that she would accept the result if she did not win the election: "I'm going to win the election, and I will accept that result."

According to Politico, the race was considered a toss-up. Lake called both the primaries and current round of elections "incompetent" and stated that "honest elections are needed" and that "the system we have right now does not work".

Virginia Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin campaigns for Kari Lake in Tucson

Debates and forums

Katie Hobbs refused to debate Kari Lake, though one debate-like forum was held.

2022 Arizona gubernatorial forums

No.	Date	Host	Moderators	Link	Participants
P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee   W  Withdrawn
					Kari Lake	Katie Hobbs
1	September 7, 2022	Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry	Danny Seiden		P	P
2	October 23, 2022	Clean Elections	Mike Broomhead		P	A

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report	Tossup	March 4, 2022
Inside Elections	Tossup	March 4, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean R	November 7, 2022
Politico	Tossup	April 1, 2022
RCP	Tossup	January 10, 2022
Fox News	Tossup	October 25, 2022
538	Lean R	October 26, 2022
Elections Daily	Lean R	November 7, 2022

Endorsements

Kari Lake (R)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

• Michael Flynn, former U.S. National Security Advisor (2017), former Director of the DIA (2012–2014) and retired U.S. Army lieutenant general
• Richard Grenell, former U.S. Ambassador to Germany (2018–2020)
• Thomas Homan, former director of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (2017–2018)
• Peter Navarro, former Director of the Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy (2017–2021)
• Kash Patel, former Chief of Staff to the Acting United States Secretary of Defense
• Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)

U.S. senators

• Marsha Blackburn, U.S. senator from Tennessee (2019–present) and former U.S. representative for Tennessee's 7th congressional district (2003–2019)

U.S. representatives

• Andy Biggs, U.S Representative for Arizona's 5th congressional district (2017–present)
• Tulsi Gabbard, former U.S. representative for Hawaii's 2nd congressional district (2013–2021) (Independent)
• Paul Gosar, U.S. representative for Arizona's 4th congressional district (2011–2023)
• Elise Stefanik, House Republican Conference Chair (2021–present) and U.S. Representative for New York's 21st congressional district (2015–present)
• Marjorie Taylor Greene, U.S Representative for Georgia's 14th congressional district (2021–present)

Governors

• Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida (2019–present)
• Doug Ducey, Governor of Arizona (2015–2023)
• Glenn Youngkin, Governor of Virginia (2022–present)

State legislators

• Nancy Barto, state senator from the 15th district (2021–present)
• Sonny Borrelli, state senator from the 5th district (2017–present)
• Joseph Chaplik, state representative from the 23rd district (2021–present)
• John Fillmore, state representative from the 16th district (2019–present)
• Travis Grantham, state representative from the 12th district (2021–present)
• John Kavanagh, state representative from the 23rd district (2019–present)
• Teresa Martinez, state representative from the 11th district (2021–present)
• Russell Pearce, former state senator from the 18th district (2006–2011)
• Warren Petersen, state senator from the 12th district (2021–present)
• Wendy Rogers, state senator from the 6th district (2021–2023)
• Kelli Ward, chairwoman of the Arizona Republican Party and candidate for the US Senate in 2016 and in 2018

Local officials

• Joe Arpaio, 36th Sheriff of Maricopa County (1993–2017)
• Rudy Giuliani, 107th mayor of New York City (1994–2001)

Individuals

• Dean Cain, actor, producer, television presenter and former professional football player
• Henry Cejudo, former mixed martial arts and freestyle wrestler, Olympic gold medalist
• Jerry Colangelo, businessman and sports executive
• Dinesh D'Souza, political commentator, author and filmmaker
• Larry Elder, talk radio host, author, politician, and attorney
• Kimberly Guilfoyle, television news personality and former advisor to Donald Trump
• Abraham Hamadeh, prosecutor and Republican nominee for Arizona Attorney General in 2022
• Bernard Kerik, political commentator and former New York City Police Commissioner (2000-2001)
• Charlie Kirk, founder and executive director of Turning Point USA
• Robert Kiyosaki, businessman and author of Rich Dad Poor Dad
• Jim Lamon, solar power businessman and former candidate for U.S. Senate in Arizona
• Mike Lindell, founder of My Pillow
• Blake Masters, venture capitalist and Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2022
• Rob Schneider, comedian and actor
• Brandon Tatum, conservative political commentator
• Karrin Taylor Robson, member of the Arizona Board of Regents (2017-2021) and former 2022 gubernatorial candidate
• Peter Thiel, entrepreneur and venture capitalist
• Donald Trump Jr., businessman and son of former President Donald Trump

Organizations

• Arizona Conference of Police & Sheriffs
• American Conservative Union
• American Principles Project
• Arizona Fraternal Order of Police
• Association of American Physicians and Surgeons
• National Federation of Independent Business
• NRA Political Victory Fund
• Phoenix Police Sergeants and Lieutenants Association

Katie Hobbs (D)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

• Barack Obama, 44th president of the United States (2009–2017)

U.S. senators

• Kyrsten Sinema, U.S. senator from Arizona (2019–present) and former U.S. representative for Arizona's 9th congressional district (2013–2019)

U.S. representatives

• Liz Cheney, U.S. representative for Wyoming's at-large congressional district (2017–2023) (Republican)
• Adam Kinzinger, U.S. representative for Illinois's 16th congressional district (2011–2023) (Republican)

Local officials

• Sam Campana, former mayor of Scottsdale (Republican)
• John Giles, Mayor of Mesa (2014–present) (Republican)

State legislators

• Lela Alston, former state senator from 24th district (2019–present)
• Richard Andrade, state representative for 29th district (2015–present)
• Sean Bowie, state senator from 18th district (2017–present)
• Lupe Contreras, state senator from 19th district (2015–present)
• Andrea Dalessandro, state representative for 2nd district (2021–present)
• Kirsten Engel, former state senator from 10th district (2021)
• Stephanie Stahl Hamilton, state representative for 10th district (2021–present)
• Pamela Hannley, state representative for 9th district (2017–present)
• Steve May, former state representative for 26th district (1997–2000) (Republican)
• Jamescita Peshlakai, former state senator from 7th district (2017–2021)
• Martín Quezada, state senator from 29th district (2015–2023)
• Victoria Steele, state senator from 9th district (2019–2023)

Individuals

• Camila Cabello, singer
• Kerry Washington, actress

Labor unions

• AFL–CIO
• Communications Workers of America
• National Education Association
• United Mine Workers of America

Organizations

• Chicanos Por La Causa
• Democrats Serve PAC
• Emerge America
• EMILY's List
• End Citizens United
• Equality Arizona
• Everytown for Gun Safety
• Feminist Majority PAC
• Fund Her PAC
• Human Rights Campaign
• Let America Vote
• MoveOn
• NARAL Pro-Choice America
• National Women's Political Caucus
• Planned Parenthood
• Stonewall Democrats

Declined to endorse

State officials

• Jan Brewer, former governor of Arizona (2009–2015) (Republican)

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of December 31st, 2022
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Katie Hobbs (D)	$14,796,583	$14,703,952	$527,969
Kari Lake (R)	$15,855,394	$15,381,454	$1,592,293
Source: SeeTheMoney

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Kari Lake (R)	Katie Hobbs (D)	Undecided	Margin
RealClearPolitics	November 1–7, 2022	November 8, 2022	50.8%	47.3%	1.9%	Lake +3.5
FiveThirtyEight	October 17 – November 8, 2022	November 8, 2022	49.5%	47.1%	3.4%	Lake +2.4
270ToWin	November 3–7, 2022	November 8, 2022	48.9%	46.9%	4.2%	Lake +2.0
Average			49.7%	47.1%	3.2%	Lake +2.6

Graphical summary

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kari Lake (R)	Katie Hobbs (D)	Other	Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)	November 5–7, 2022	1,094 (LV)	± 2.9%	51%	47%	–	3%
Data Orbital (R)	November 4–6, 2022	550 (LV)	± 4.3%	50%	47%	2%	2%
Research Co.	November 4–6, 2022	450 (LV)	± 4.6%	49%	47%	–	4%
Data for Progress (D)	November 2–6, 2022	1,359 (LV)	± 3.0%	52%	48%	–	–
Targoz Market Research	November 2–6, 2022	560 (LV)	± 4.1%	50%	48%	2%	–
KAConsulting (R)	November 2–3, 2022	501 (LV)	± 4.4%	49%	45%	1%	6%
InsiderAdvantage (R)	November 2, 2022	550 (LV)	± 4.2%	51%	48%	–	1%
HighGround Inc.	November 1–2, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	47%	45%	2%	6%
Remington Research Group (R)	November 1–2, 2022	1,075 (LV)	± 2.9%	49%	46%	–	5%
Big Data Poll (R)	October 31 – November 2, 2022	1,051 (LV)	± 3.0%	51%	47%	–	2%
Marist College	October 31 – November 2, 2022	1,157 (RV)	± 4.1%	47%	48%	1%	4%
		1,015 (LV)	± 4.3%	48%	49%	1%	2%
Civiqs	October 29 – November 2, 2022	852 (LV)	± 4.2%	50%	48%	1%	–
Alloy Analytics (R)	October 30 – November 1, 2022	639 (LV)	± 3.9%	50%	46%	–	4%
Emerson College	October 30 – November 1, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	49%	47%	2%	2%
				50%	47%	3%	–
The Phillips Academy	October 29–30, 2022	985 (LV)	± 3.1%	53%	42%	–	4%
Fox News	October 26–30, 2022	1,003 (RV)	± 3.0%	47%	46%	3%	4%
Wick Insights (R)	October 26–30, 2022	1,122 (LV)	± 3.2%	49%	47%	2%	2%
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R)	October 24–26, 2022	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	50%	47%	–	–
OH Predictive Insights	October 24–26, 2022	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	49%	47%	–	4%
Siena College/NYT	October 24–26, 2022	604 (LV)	± 4.4%	48%	48%	–	4%
BSP Research/Shaw & Co.	October 19–26, 2022	1,000 (RV)	± 3.1%	42%	40%	3%	14%
InsiderAdvantage (R)	October 24–25, 2022	550 (LV)	± 4.2%	54%	43%	–	2%
co/efficient (R)	October 20–21, 2022	1,111 (LV)	± 3.1%	49%	45%	–	6%
Data Orbital (R)	October 17–19, 2022	550 (LV)	± 4.3%	47%	44%	3%	6%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)	October 14–18, 2022	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	47%	48%	2%	3%
The Trafalgar Group (R)	October 16–17, 2022	1,078 (LV)	± 2.9%	49%	46%	–	4%
Data for Progress (D)	October 11–17, 2022	893 (LV)	± 3.0%	50%	46%	–	4%
Wick Insights (R)	October 8–14, 2022	1,058 (LV)	± 3.1%	47%	47%	2%	3%
HighGround Inc.	October 12–13, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.3%	45%	46%	2%	7%
InsiderAdvantage (R)	October 11, 2022	550 (LV)	± 4.2%	49%	46%	–	4%
Ascend Action (R)	October 8–10, 2022	954 (LV)	± 3.2%	46%	45%	5%	5%
Big Data Poll (R)	October 2–5, 2022	974 (LV)	± 3.1%	49%	46%	1%	6%
YouGov/CBS News	September 30 – October 4, 2022	1,164 (RV)	± 3.8%	49%	49%	–	1%
CNN/SSRS	September 26 – October 2, 2022	900 (RV)	± 4.4%	44%	49%	7%	–
		795 (LV)	± 4.6%	46%	49%	5%	–
Fox News	September 22–26, 2022	1,008 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	44%	6%	7%
Suffolk University	September 21–25, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	45%	46%	–	8%
Marist College	September 19–22, 2022	1,260 (RV)	± 3.6%	46%	45%	<1%	8%
		1,076 (LV)	± 3.9%	49%	46%	–	5%
Data for Progress (D)	September 15–19, 2022	768 (LV)	± 4.0%	51%	47%	–	3%
The Trafalgar Group (R)	September 14–17, 2022	1,080 (LV)	± 2.9%	50%	46%	–	4%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)	September 8–15, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	48%	49%	–	3%
Survey Monkey (D)	September 6–9, 2022	972 (RV)	± 3.0%	37%	49%	–	14%
		563 (LV)	± 3.0%	39%	53%	–	8%
Emerson College	September 6–7, 2022	627 (LV)	± 3.9%	46%	46%	2%	6%
InsiderAdvantage (R)	September 6–7, 2022	550 (LV)	± 4.2%	43%	44%	–	13%
Echelon Insights	August 31 – September 7, 2022	773 (RV)	± 4.5%	40%	50%	–	10%
The Trafalgar Group (R)	August 24–27, 2022	1,074 (LV)	± 2.9%	47%	46%	3%	5%
RMG Research	August 16–22, 2022	750 (LV)	± 3.6%	46%	44%	–	9%
Fox News	August 12–16, 2022	1,012 (RV)	± 3.0%	44%	47%	2%	6%
American Viewpoint (R)	August 2022	– (LV)	–	46%	47%	3%	4%
Beacon Research (D)	July 5–20, 2022	802 (RV)	± 3.5%	38%	43%	2%	12%
		504 (LV)	± 4.4%	40%	49%	3%	7%
TargetSmart (D)	June 28–30, 2022	704 (LV)	± 3.7%	38%	47%	7%	8%
GQR Research (D)	May 9–15, 2022	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	45%	50%	–	4%
Data Orbital (R)	February 11–13, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.1%	43%	41%	–	16%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	November 10, 2021	624 (RV)	± 3.9%	34%	39%	2%	19%
		592 (LV)	± 4.0%	37%	41%	2%	18%

Hypothetical polling

Karrin Taylor Robson vs. Katie Hobbs

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Karrin Taylor Robson (R)	Katie Hobbs (D)	Other	Undecided
Beacon Research (D)	July 5–20, 2022	802 (RV)	± 3.5%	37%	42%	4%	13%
		504 (LV)	± 4.4%	40%	48%	5%	7%
TargetSmart (D)	June 28–30, 2022	704 (LV)	± 3.7%	39%	44%	10%	7%
GQR Research (D)	May 9–15, 2022	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	46%	47%	–	4%
Data Orbital (R)	February 11–13, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.1%	37%	42%	–	21%

Matt Salmon vs. Katie Hobbs

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Matt Salmon (R)	Katie Hobbs (D)	Other	Undecided
Data Orbital (R)	February 11–13, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.1%	39%	41%	–	20%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	November 10, 2021	624 (RV)	± 3.9%	31%	40%	4%	17%
		592 (LV)	± 4.0%	35%	43%	4%	16%

Steve Gaynor vs. Katie Hobbs

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Steve Gaynor (R)	Katie Hobbs (D)	Undecided
Data Orbital (R)	February 11–13, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.1%	39%	41%	20%

Generic Republican vs. generic Democrat

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Generic Republican	Generic Democrat	Undecided
OH Predictive Insights	March 7–15, 2022	753 (RV)	± 3.6%	39%	37%	25%
OH Predictive Insights	January 11–13, 2022	855 (RV)	± 3.4%	39%	35%	26%
OH Predictive Insights	November 1–8, 2021	713 (RV)	± 3.7%	39%	37%	24%
OH Predictive Insights	September 7–12, 2021	882 (RV)	± 3.3%	39%	36%	25%
Data for Progress (D)	September 15–22, 2020	481 (LV)	± 4.4%	42%	39%	19%

Results

Hobbs defeated Lake by a margin of 0.67%, narrowly outperforming Joe Biden's 0.3% margin of victory in 2020 in Arizona. Hobbs won by more than 37,000 votes in Maricopa County, home to a majority of Arizona's population, which was larger than her statewide margin of 17,117 votes.

2022 Arizona gubernatorial election

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Katie Hobbs	1,287,891	50.32%	+8.48%
	Republican	Kari Lake	1,270,774	49.65%	−6.35%
	Write-in		820	0.03%	+0.01%
Total votes			2,559,485	100.0%
Turnout			2,592,313	62.56%
Registered electors			4,143,929
	Democratic gain from Republican

By county

By county

County Katie Hobbs Democratic Kari Lake Republican Write-in Margin Total votes # % # % # % # % Apache 17,739 66.65 8,870 33.33 5 0.02 8,869 33.32 26,614 Cochise 19,137 41.01 27,481 58.89 48 0.10 -8,344 -17.88 46,666 Coconino 34,389 62.84 20,298 37.09 40 0.07 14,091 25.75 54,727 Gila 7,674 34.18 14,763 65.76 13 0.06 -7,089 -31.58 22,450 Graham 3,087 28.46 7,760 71.54 0 0.00 -4,673 -43.08 10,847 Greenlee 920 37.61 1,526 62.39 0 0.00 -606 -24.78 2,446 La Paz 1,646 29.93 3,847 69.96 6 0.11 -2,201 -40.03 5,499 Maricopa 790,352 51.20 752,714 48.77 469 0.03 37,638 2.44 1,543,535 Mohave 20,369 24.99 61,125 74.99 16 0.02 -40,756 -50.00 81,510 Navajo 18,058 44.69 22,340 55.28 13 0.03 -4,282 -10.60 40,411 Pima 241,398 60.57 157,034 39.40 121 0.03 84,364 21.17 398,553 Pinal 60,019 41.73 83,773 58.25 34 0.02 -23,754 -16.52 143,826 Santa Cruz 8,724 66.60 4,371 33.37 4 0.03 4,353 33.23 13,099 Yavapai 44,316 35.97 78,832 63.99 43 0.03 -34,516 -28.02 123,191 Yuma 20,063 43.51 26,040 56.47 8 0.02 -5,977 -12.96 46,111 Totals 1,287,891 50.32 1,270,774 49.65 820 0.03 17,117 0.67 2,559,485 Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Maricopa (largest municipality: Phoenix)

By congressional district

Hobbs won 5 out of 9 congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans.

District	Hobbs	Lake	Representative elected
1st	52%	48%	David Schweikert
2nd	46%	54%	Eli Crane
3rd	76%	24%	Ruben Gallego
4th	56%	44%	Greg Stanton
5th	43%	57%	Andy Biggs
6th	52%	48%	Juan Ciscomani
7th	67%	33%	Raúl Grijalva
8th	45%	55%	Debbie Lesko
9th	36%	64%	Paul Gosar

Dispute over results

On November 17, Lake refused to concede defeat, and announced she was assembling a legal team to challenge the results. Lake alleged voter disfranchisement due to ballot printing problems and long waiting lines in Maricopa County, which had elections run by local Republican officials Bill Gates and Stephen Richer. In 70 out of 223 Maricopa County polling sites, voting machine ballots were printed too lightly to be read by tabulators; the problem was caused by a printer setting which had not shown widespread issues during prior testing. If voters did not want to wait in line for the issue to be fixed, they could leave to vote at another Maricopa County polling site, with wait times for polling sites being shown online, and many polling sites had little to no waiting lines, stated Maricopa County election officials. Alternatively, voters could drop their ballots into a secure box ("Box 3"), with these ballots being later tabulated at Maricopa County's elections headquarters, under monitoring from observers from both parties; ultimately, around 17,000 Maricopa County ballots were dropped into Box 3.

Bill Gates, the Republican chair of Maricopa's Board of Supervisors, partially blamed the long lines on Arizona Republican Party chairwoman Kelli Ward for discouraging voters from using Box 3; she had claimed that Box 3 should not be used as "Maricopa County is not turning on their tabulators downtown today". Lake herself told her supporters to stay in line to vote, while a lawyer for Lake's campaign assuaged concerns about using Box 3 to vote. Lake's campaign filed a lawsuit on Election Day to extend voting for another three hours, but Maricopa County Superior Court Judge Tim Ryan declined to do so, stating: "The court doesn't have any evidence that any voter was precluded from their right to vote".

While Lake alleged that Republican-dominated areas in Maricopa County were disproportionately affected by the printing problems, The Washington Post found that the percentage of registered Republicans in affected precincts (37%) was very close to the percentage of registered Republicans across Maricopa County (35%), and also found that some Democrat-dominated areas also faced the printing problems. According to the Associated Press: "Democrats voted overwhelmingly via ballots received in the mail. In-person Election Day votes heavily favored the GOP because Lake and other prominent Republicans had claimed it was more secure, which election experts dispute." Meanwhile, The New York Times analyzed 45 of the claims of irregularities reported by voters, finding that in 34 of these 45 claims, the voters were able to cast their vote despite an inconvenience; while for the others, three raised problems with voter registration; seven gave unclear accounts as to what exactly happened; and only one said she had been denied the opportunity to vote, though she acknowledged she had arrived at her polling place at the time it closed.

Arizona's Assistant Attorney General Jennifer Wright demanded that Maricopa County explain the election problems, stating: "These complaints go beyond pure speculation, but include first-hand witness accounts that raise concerns regarding Maricopa's lawful compliance with Arizona election law".

Delays in certification of voting results

14 of Arizona's 15 counties certified the voting results by the November 28, 2022 deadline; the exception was Cochise County. Despite no evidence of irregularities with vote counting, Cochise County's Republican officials delayed their certification vote to December 2, 2022, to accommodate a hearing on the certification of voting machines. On November 21, Arizona's State Elections Director, Kori Lorick, had sent county officials' confirmation that the county's voting machines had been certified by the United States Election Assistance Commission in an accredited laboratory. However, the county's officials insisted on hearing more from those who had alleged that the voting machines were not properly certified.

On November 29, Hobbs, as secretary of state, sued the county for being unable to certify results by the deadline.

On December 1, the Pima County Superior Court ruled that the Cochise County Board of Supervisors must hold an emergency meeting on the same day to certify and approve the canvass. Hours later, the Board voted 2–0 to do so.

Lawsuit

On December 9, 2022, after Arizona certified the election, Lake initiated a lawsuit seeking a court order to either overturn Hobbs' victory and declare Lake as the winner of the election, or redo the election in Maricopa County. Lake's complaint alleged that there were hundreds of thousands of illegal votes in the election, but no evidence was provided. On December 19, Maricopa County Superior Court Judge Peter Thompson dismissed eight of ten counts of Lake's lawsuit, regarding invalid signatures on mail-in ballots, incorrect certification, inadequate remedy, as well as violations of freedom of speech, equal protection, due process, the secrecy clause, and constitutional rights. The judge allowed the remaining two counts to go to trial, these being allegations that election officials intentionally interfered with Maricopa County ballot printers and with the chain of custody of Maricopa County ballots. The judge ruled that Lake needed to prove during the trial that the above allegations were true, and that the alleged actions "did in fact result in a changed outcome" of the election.

Lake's reaction to the judge's initial ruling was declaring: "Arizona, We will have our day in court!" During the two-day trial, Northrop Grumman information security officer Clay Parikh, a witness called by Lake, testified that some ballots had printing errors that would cause tabulation issues, but also testified that these misprinted ballots would ultimately be counted after duplicates were made. On December 24, judge Thompson dismissed Lake's remaining case, as the court did not find clear and convincing evidence that misconduct was committed. The judge wrote: "Every single witness before the Court disclaimed any personal knowledge of such [intentional] misconduct. The Court cannot accept speculation or conjecture in place of clear and convincing evidence". The judge further ruled that "printer failures did not actually affect the results of the election", while highlighting that one witness called by Lake testified that "printer failures were largely the result of unforeseen mechanical failure." Regarding the witness Richard Baris, a pollster, who alleged that potential voters were disenfranchised, the judge noted Baris' testimony that "nobody can give a specific number" of people who were disenfranchised, and called Baris' analysis "decidedly insufficient" in this case, because Baris' analysis showed that Hobbs "had a good chance of winning anyway" even after reversing the supposed disenfranchisement.

On December 30, 2022, Lake appealed the ruling to the First Division of the Arizona Court of Appeals. Lake also attempted to transfer her appeal directly to the Arizona Supreme Court, which denied this on January 4, 2023, ruling that there was "no good cause" to do so. On February 16, a three-judge panel for the Arizona Court of Appeals affirmed Thompson's ruling; chief judge Kent Cattani wrote the opinion and two other judges, Maria Elena Cruz and Peter Swann, concurred. The appeals court found that "Lake’s only purported evidence" that long lines at voting centers "had any potential effect on election results was, quite simply, sheer speculation." The appeals court noted that "Lake presented no evidence that voters whose ballots were unreadable by on-site tabulators were not able to vote", while highlighting that Lake's own cybersecurity expert testified to the contrary. While Lake alleged that there was improper chain-of-custody documentation in Maricopa County, the appeals court decided that the lower court reasonably concluded that Lake failed to prove this allegation. While Lake alleged that Maricopa County had improperly handled early ballots from election day, the appeals court ruled that even if this allegation was true, Lake "failed to present evidence, as opposed to speculation", that this affected the result of the election. In summary, the appeals court wrote that the evidence presented in court showed that "voters were able to cast their ballots, that votes were counted correctly and that no other basis justifies setting aside the election results".

Lake filed an appeal to the Arizona Supreme Court on March 1, 2023. The Arizona Supreme Court issued a ruling on March 22, written by Arizona Supreme Court Chief Justice Robert Brutinel, finding that the Appeals Court correctly dismissed six of Lake's seven legal claims, as these challenges of hers were "insufficient to warrant the requested relief under Arizona or federal law." For Lake's remaining legal claim, on signature verification, the Arizona Supreme Court ruled that the lower courts incorrectly interpreted her challenge as pertaining to signature verification policies themselves, instead of the application of such policies; thus this issue was sent back for Maricopa County Superior Court Judge Peter Thompson to reconsider.

The Arizona Supreme Court in May 2023 employed "the extraordinary remedy of a sanction" against Lake's lawyer, which was a $2,000 fine, for having "made false factual statements to the Court". Within Lake's court filings was the claim that it was an "undisputed fact that 35,563 unaccounted for ballots were added to the total of ballots [at] a third party processing facility". The Arizona Supreme Court responded that there is "no evidence that 35,563 ballots were" added, and further that Lake's claim had been disputed by Lake's legal opponents, so the claim of an "undisputed fact" is "unequivocally false".

Later, in May 2023, Lake was granted a second trial by Judge Thompson, where Lake needed to prove that "Maricopa County’s higher level signature reviewers conducted no signature verification or curing", in violation of law, and that this changed the election result. Thompson later acknowledged that the scope of Lake's claim of misconduct also extended to Maricopa County's lower level signature reviewers. The result of the trial was that Lake's remaining claim on improper signature verification was dismissed; Judge Thompson ruled on May 22, 2023, that Lake had not provided "clear and convincing evidence or a preponderance of evidence" of misconduct in the election; instead the court received "ample evidence that — objectively speaking — a comparison between voter records and signatures was conducted in every instance [that Lake] asked the Court to evaluate." Thompson noted that Lake's attorneys earlier argued that Maricopa County did not perform signature verification, but later argued that signature verification was performed, but done too quickly. Thompson concluded that it was possible for signature verification to be done quickly and properly when "looking at signatures that, by and large, have consistent characteristics". Meanwhile, Lake's own witnesses testified to performing signature verification for Maricopa County. Thompson did not sanction Lake for her final claim, stating that while there was no clear or convincing evidence for this claim, it was not necessarily "groundless".

Independent investigation into printer problems

The results of an independent investigation into the 2022 election's printing problems was published in April 2023; the investigation was led by a retired chief justice of the Arizona Supreme Court, Ruth McGregor, who concluded that "the primary cause of the election day failures was equipment failure", and that no evidence gathered gave "clear indication that the problems should have been anticipated". McGregor also detailed: "Two-thirds of the general election vote centers reported no issues with misprinted ballots; approximately 94 percent of election day ballots were not faulty".

Arizona Supreme Court ruling

On November 7, 2024, the Arizona Supreme Court, on par with previous rulings by trial judges and the Arizona Court of Appeals, rejected Lake's final appeal to overturn the results of the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election and get a new election before 2026.

See also

• 2022 Arizona elections

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

Official campaign websites

• Katie Hobbs (D) for Governor
• Kari Lake (R) for Governor
• Mikaela Lutes-Burton (L) for Governor
• William Pounds IV (IG) for Governor
• Liana West (G) for Governor Archived September 28, 2022, at the Wayback Machine