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{{Short description|International policy development body}}
{{multiple issues|
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The '''Global Scenario Group''' ('''GSG''') was an international, interdisciplinary body convened in 1995 by the [[Tellus Institute]] and the [[Stockholm Environment Institute]] (SEI) to develop scenarios for world development in the twenty-first century. Further development of the Great Transition scenarios has been carried on by the [[Great Transition Initiative]] (GTI).
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The GSG's underlying scenario development work was rooted in the long-range integrated [[scenario analysis]] that Tellus Institute and Stockholm Environment Institute had undertaken through the PoleStar Project and its PoleStar System. Initially conceived in 1991 as a tool for integrated sustainability planning and long-range scenario analysis, the PoleStar System was inspired by the 1987 [[Brundtland Commission]] report ''[[Our Common Future]]'', which first put the concept of [[sustainable development]] on the international agenda.
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The '''Global Scenario Group (GSG)''' was an international, interdisciplinary body convened in 1995 by the [[Tellus Institute]] and the [[Stockholm Environment Institute]] to develop scenarios for world development in the twenty-first century.<ref>[http://www.gsg.org/gsgintro.html Global Scenario Group - About]</ref>


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The work of the Global Scenario Group was widely adopted in high-level intergovernmental settings. The scenarios informed numerous international assessments, including the [[World Water Council]]'s World Water Vision report in 1999–2000,<ref>{{cite web|title=World Water Council - Vision Report Chapter 3|url=https://www.worldwatercouncil.org/en}}</ref> the OECD Environmental Outlook in 2001,<ref>{{cite web|title=Highlights of the OECD Environmental Outlook|url=https://web-archive.oecd.org/2012-06-15/158923-1863523.pdf|accessdate=20 May 2013|page=7}}</ref> the [[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]]'s [[greenhouse gas emissions|greenhouse gas emission]] mitigation assessment in 2001,<ref>{{cite web|title=IPCC Third Assessment Report - Climate Change 2001 - Working Group III: Mitigation|url=https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar3}}</ref> the [[United Nations Environment Programme]]'s Third GEO Report in 2002,<ref>{{cite book|title=Global Environment Outlook Scenario Framework: Background Paper for UNEP's Third Global Environment Outlook Report| date=2004 | publisher=UNEP. Division of early warning and assessment | isbn=978-92-807-2461-5 |url=https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/760859?ln=en}}</ref> and the [[Millennium Ecosystem Assessment]] in 2005.<ref>{{cite web|title=Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: A Framework for Assessment - Chapter 7|url=https://www.millenniumassessment.org/documents/document.356.aspx.pdf|page=168}}</ref>
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The GSG’s underlying scenario development work was rooted in the long-range integrated scenario analysis that Tellus Institute and Stockholm Environment Institute had undertaken through the [http://www.polestarproject.org/ PoleStar Project]. Initially conceived in 1991 as a tool for integrated sustainability planning and long-range scenario analysis, PoleStar was inspired by the 1987 [[Brundtland Commission] report ''[[Our Common Future]]'', which first put the concept of “sustainable development” on the international agenda.


Members of the GSG included [[Tariq Banuri]], Khaled Mohamed Fahmy, Tibor Farago, Nadezhda Gaponenko, Gilberto Gallopín, Gordon Goodman, Pablo Gutman, Allen Hammond,
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The work of the Global Scenario Group was widely adopted in high-level intergovernmental settings. The scenarios informed numerous international assessments, including the [[World Water Council]]’s World Water Vision report in 1999-2000,<ref>{{cite web|title=World Water Council - Vision Report Chapter 3|url=http://www.worldwatercouncil.org/fileadmin/world_water_council/documents_old/Library/WWVision/Chapter3.pdf|accessdate=20 May 2013|page=45}}</ref> the OECD Environmental Outlook in 2001,<ref>{{cite web|title=Highlights of the OECD Environmental Outlook|url=http://www.oecd.org/environment/indicators-modelling-outlooks/1863523.pdf|accessdate=20 May 2013|page=7}}</ref> the [[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]]’s Green House Gas emission mitigation assessment in 2001,<ref>{{cite web|title=IPCC Third Assessment Report - Climate Change 2001 - Working Group III: Mitigation|url=http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/|accessdate=20 May 2013}}</ref> the [[United Nations Environment Programme]]’s Third GEO Report in 2002,<ref>{{cite web|title=Global Environment Outlook Scenario Framework: Background Paper for UNEP's Third Global Environment Outlook Report|url=http://www.unep.org/geo/GEO3/pdfs/GEO_ScenarioFramework.pdf|accessdate=20 May 2013}}</ref> and the [[Millennium Ecosystem Assessment]] in 2005.<ref>{{cite web|title=Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: A Framework for Assessment - Chapter 7|url=http://www.unep.org/maweb/documents/document.305.aspx.pdf|accessdate=20 May 2013|page=168}}</ref> Several of the GSG participants who actively participated in the IPCC assessments have been recognized for contributing to the 2007 award of the Nobel Peace Prize to the IPCC.<ref>[http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/contents.html Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007]</ref>
[[Roger Kasperson]], Bob Kates, Laili Li, [[Sam Moyo]], Madiodio Niasse, H.W.O. Okoth-Ogendo, Atiq Rahman, [[Paul Raskin]], Setijati D. Sastrapradja, Katsuo Seiki, Nicholas Sonntag, Rob Swart, and Veerle Vandeweerd.<ref>Global Scenario Group. "About the GSG." Accessed January 9, 2024. https://gsg.org/about-the-gsg.html.</ref>


Several of the GSG participants who actively participated in the IPCC assessments were recognized for contributing to the 2007 award of the Nobel Peace Prize to the IPCC.<ref>{{Cite web |url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar4/wg3/ |title=Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007 }}</ref>
==Scenarios==
In 2002, the GSG formally summarized their scenario approach in an essay called ''Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead''.<ref>[http://www.gsg.org/gsgpub.html#GT Essay] Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead</ref> The essay argues that history has entered a qualitatively new era of high global interdependence, which they refer to as the [[Planetary Phase of Civilization]]. Some kind of global society will take shape in this century, but its form remains deeply uncertain and highly contested. Three classes of scenarios are discussed – Conventional Worlds, Barbarization, and Great Transitions.


In 2002, the GSG formally summarized their scenario approach in an essay called ''Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead''.<ref>Paul Raskin, Tariq Banuri, Gilberto Gallopín, Pablo Gutman, Al Hammond, Robert Kates, and Rob Swart, ''Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead'' (Boston: Stockholm Environment Institute, 2002), http://www.greattransition.org/gt-essay. See also its sequel: Paul Raskin, ''Journey to Earthland: The Great Transition to Planetary Civilization''. Boston: Tellus Institute, 2016, http://www.greattransition.org/publication/journey-to-earthland.</ref>
===Conventional Worlds===

Conventional Worlds scenarios envision a future which unfolds without major surprises and with essential continuity with current rends, driving forces, and dominant values. ''Market Forces'' versions rely heavily on free markets that generate sufficient and timely technological evolution to address emerging environmental and social challenges. ''[[Policy Reform]]'' versions assume instead that governments mobilize to mount a coordinated, sustained, and effective regime of policy adjustments to mitigate environmental disasters and social destabilization.

===Barbarization===

Barbarization scenarios depict futures in which the market and policy adjustments of Conventional Worlds are inadequate to address such problems as climate change and social polarization, leading to a devolution of civilized norms. In ''Fortress World'' variants, powerful global actors respond to impending collapse by mounting an authoritarian intervention to stem environmental degradation and social conflict. International elites retreat to protected enclaves, where they manage remaining natural resources and protect their interests. Outside these enclaves, the remainder of civilization endures poverty and degradation. ''Breakdown'' variants would ensue if the elite are unable to form a coherent, adequate response to the mounting crisis. The world descends into conflict and degradation, as institutions collapse.

===The Great Transition===

[[Great Transition]] scenarios go beyond the market and policy adjustments of Conventional Worlds to envision a fundamental shift in institutions and values. The growth imperative of Conventional Worlds economies give way to [[steady state]] economies, the tendency toward inequality is countered by egalitarian social policies, and human values turn toward solidarity, well-being, and ecology, rather than individualism, consumerism, and domination of nature. The potential of a Great Transition is linked to the emergence of a [[global citizens movement]] to advocate for new values to underpin global society.

''[[Eco-Communalism]]'' variants are characterized by extreme localism, while the ''New Sustainability Paradigm'' alternative welcomes cosmopolitanism and global governance in a plural world. In all versions, civilization has a far smaller [[ecological footprint]], societies are more equitable, and citizens have more leisure time to pursue fulfilling activities.


The GSG scenario framework consists of six scenarios in three classes. In ''Conventional Worlds'' scenarios, the global system of the twenty-first century evolves without major surprises or discontinuities. This scenario class includes ''Market Forces'', in which the task of resolving social and environmental crises is left to competitive markets, and ''Policy Reform'', in which comprehensive and coordinated government action steps in. In ''Barbarization'' scenarios, emerging problems overwhelming the coping capacity of markets and policy reforms. This scenario class includes ''Breakdown'', in which crises spiral out of control and usher in collapse, and ''Fortress World'', in which elites safeguard their privilege to protect themselves from the surrounding misery. Finally, in ''Great Transitions'' scenarios, new socioeconomic arrangements and value shifts provide visionary solutions for a more socially and environmentally sustainable world. This scenario class includes ''Eco-Communalism'', which is based on bio-regionalism and localism, and a ''New Sustainability Paradigm'', which centers on a more humane and equitable global civilization.
==See also==
==See also==
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*[[Globalization]]
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*[[Post-capitalism]]
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*[[Transition scenario]]
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*[[Tellus Institute]]
*[[Stockholm Environment Institute]]
*[[Scenario analysis]]
*[[Scenario analysis]]
*[[Global Citizens Movement]]
*[[Great Transition]]
*[[Great Transition]]
*[[Planetary Phase of Civilization]]
*[[EcoCommunalism]]
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*[[Tellus Institute]]
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*[[Post-capitalism]]
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*[[Transition scenario]]
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*[[Globalization]]


==References==
==References==
{{Reflist|30em}}
<references />


==External links==
==External links==
* [http://www.gsg.org Global Scenario Group] – An international initiative to examine alternative futures
* [http://www.gsg.org Global Scenario Group] – An international initiative to examine alternative futures
*[https://greattransition.org/gt-essay Great Transition Essay ]
*[https://www.tellus.org/pub/Branch%20Points%20-%20Global%20Scenarios%20and%20Human%20Choice.pdf Branch Points: Global Scenarios and Human Choice]
*[https://greattransition.org/archives/other/Bending%20the%20Curve.pdf Bending the Curve: Toward Global Sustainability]

{{sustainability}}
{{Authority control}}


[[Category:Environmental organizations]]
[[Category:International environmental organizations]]
[[Category:Global environmental organizations]]
[[Category:Futures studies organizations]]

Latest revision as of 23:44, 2 December 2024

The Global Scenario Group (GSG) was an international, interdisciplinary body convened in 1995 by the Tellus Institute and the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) to develop scenarios for world development in the twenty-first century. Further development of the Great Transition scenarios has been carried on by the Great Transition Initiative (GTI).

The GSG's underlying scenario development work was rooted in the long-range integrated scenario analysis that Tellus Institute and Stockholm Environment Institute had undertaken through the PoleStar Project and its PoleStar System. Initially conceived in 1991 as a tool for integrated sustainability planning and long-range scenario analysis, the PoleStar System was inspired by the 1987 Brundtland Commission report Our Common Future, which first put the concept of sustainable development on the international agenda.

The work of the Global Scenario Group was widely adopted in high-level intergovernmental settings. The scenarios informed numerous international assessments, including the World Water Council's World Water Vision report in 1999–2000,[1] the OECD Environmental Outlook in 2001,[2] the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's greenhouse gas emission mitigation assessment in 2001,[3] the United Nations Environment Programme's Third GEO Report in 2002,[4] and the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment in 2005.[5]

Members of the GSG included Tariq Banuri, Khaled Mohamed Fahmy, Tibor Farago, Nadezhda Gaponenko, Gilberto Gallopín, Gordon Goodman, Pablo Gutman, Allen Hammond, Roger Kasperson, Bob Kates, Laili Li, Sam Moyo, Madiodio Niasse, H.W.O. Okoth-Ogendo, Atiq Rahman, Paul Raskin, Setijati D. Sastrapradja, Katsuo Seiki, Nicholas Sonntag, Rob Swart, and Veerle Vandeweerd.[6]

Several of the GSG participants who actively participated in the IPCC assessments were recognized for contributing to the 2007 award of the Nobel Peace Prize to the IPCC.[7]

In 2002, the GSG formally summarized their scenario approach in an essay called Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead.[8]

The GSG scenario framework consists of six scenarios in three classes. In Conventional Worlds scenarios, the global system of the twenty-first century evolves without major surprises or discontinuities. This scenario class includes Market Forces, in which the task of resolving social and environmental crises is left to competitive markets, and Policy Reform, in which comprehensive and coordinated government action steps in. In Barbarization scenarios, emerging problems overwhelming the coping capacity of markets and policy reforms. This scenario class includes Breakdown, in which crises spiral out of control and usher in collapse, and Fortress World, in which elites safeguard their privilege to protect themselves from the surrounding misery. Finally, in Great Transitions scenarios, new socioeconomic arrangements and value shifts provide visionary solutions for a more socially and environmentally sustainable world. This scenario class includes Eco-Communalism, which is based on bio-regionalism and localism, and a New Sustainability Paradigm, which centers on a more humane and equitable global civilization.

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "World Water Council - Vision Report Chapter 3".
  2. ^ "Highlights of the OECD Environmental Outlook" (PDF). p. 7. Retrieved 20 May 2013.
  3. ^ "IPCC Third Assessment Report - Climate Change 2001 - Working Group III: Mitigation".
  4. ^ Global Environment Outlook Scenario Framework: Background Paper for UNEP's Third Global Environment Outlook Report. UNEP. Division of early warning and assessment. 2004. ISBN 978-92-807-2461-5.
  5. ^ "Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: A Framework for Assessment - Chapter 7" (PDF). p. 168.
  6. ^ Global Scenario Group. "About the GSG." Accessed January 9, 2024. https://gsg.org/about-the-gsg.html.
  7. ^ "Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007".
  8. ^ Paul Raskin, Tariq Banuri, Gilberto Gallopín, Pablo Gutman, Al Hammond, Robert Kates, and Rob Swart, Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead (Boston: Stockholm Environment Institute, 2002), http://www.greattransition.org/gt-essay. See also its sequel: Paul Raskin, Journey to Earthland: The Great Transition to Planetary Civilization. Boston: Tellus Institute, 2016, http://www.greattransition.org/publication/journey-to-earthland.
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