2024 Montana Republican presidential primary: Difference between revisions
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{{Short description|none}} <!-- "none" is preferred when the title is already sufficiently detailed; see [[WP:SDNONE]] --> |
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{{Short description|Primary election in Montana}} |
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{{Use mdy dates|date=September 2023}} |
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{{import-blanktable}} |
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{{row hover highlight}} |
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{{Main article|2024 Republican Party presidential primaries}} |
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{{Infobox election |
{{Infobox election |
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| election_name = 2024 Montana Republican presidential primary |
| election_name = 2024 Montana Republican presidential primary |
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| next_year = 2028 |
| next_year = 2028 |
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| election_date = June 4, 2024 |
| election_date = June 4, 2024 |
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| outgoing_members = [[2024 |
| outgoing_members = [[2024 Oregon Republican presidential primary|OR]] |
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| elected_members = [[2024 New Jersey Republican presidential primary|NJ]] |
| elected_members = [[2024 New Jersey Republican presidential primary|NJ]] |
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| votes_for_election = 31 [[2024 Republican National Convention|Republican National Convention]] delegates |
| votes_for_election = 31 [[2024 Republican National Convention|Republican National Convention]] delegates |
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| map_image = File:2024 Montana Republican presidential primary election results by county.svg |
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| map_image = |
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| map_size = |
| map_size = 300px |
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| map_caption = |
| map_caption = {{col-begin}} |
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{{col-2}} |
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| image1 = |
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'''Trump''' |
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| candidate1 = |
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{{legend|#3343a2|80 – 90%}} |
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| color1 = |
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{{legend|#243179|>90%}} |
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| home_state1 = |
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{{col-end}} |
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| popular_vote1 = |
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| image1 = Donald_Trump_June_2024_%282%29.jpg |
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| percentage1 = |
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| image_size = x150px |
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| delegate_count1 = |
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| candidate1 = '''[[Donald Trump]]''' |
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| image2 = |
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| |
| color1 = 283681 |
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| home_state1 = [[Florida]] |
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| color2 = |
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| popular_vote1 = '''165,678''' |
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| home_state2 = |
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| percentage1 = '''90.9%''' |
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| popular_vote2 = |
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| delegate_count1 = '''31''' |
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| percentage2 = |
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| image2 = File:NOTA Option Logo 3x4.svg |
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| delegate_count2 = |
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| colour2 = 000000 |
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| candidate2 = [[Uncommitted (voting option)|No preference]] |
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| home_state2 = — |
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| popular_vote2 = 16,570 |
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| percentage2 = 9.1% |
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| delegate_count2 = 0 |
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}} |
}} |
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{{Elections in Montana sidebar}} |
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{{ElectionsMT}} |
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The '''2024 Montana Republican presidential primary''' |
The '''2024 Montana Republican presidential primary''' was held on June 4, 2024, as part of the [[2024 Republican Party presidential primaries|Republican Party primaries]] for the [[2024 United States presidential election|2024 presidential election]]. 31 delegates to the [[2024 Republican National Convention]] were allocated on a winner-take-all basis.<ref>{{Cite web |date=March 5, 2023 |title= Montana Republican Presidential Nominating Process|url=https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P24/MT-R#0319|access-date=February 9, 2023 |website=thegreenpapers.com}}</ref> The contest was among the last in the Republican primary cycle, held alongside primaries in [[2024 New Jersey Republican presidential primary|New Jersey]], [[2024 New Mexico Republican presidential primary|New Mexico]], and [[2024 South Dakota Republican presidential primary|South Dakota]]. |
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== |
==Candidates== |
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Only one candidate filed for the primary election ballot:<ref>{{cite news |last1=Ambarian |first1=Johnathon |title=Montana presidential primary gives option for "no preference" votes |url=https://www.ktvh.com/news/montana-presidential-primary-gives-option-for-no-preference-votes |access-date=30 May 2024 |work=KTVH Helena |date=23 May 2024}}</ref> |
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{{main|2024 Republican Party presidential candidates}} |
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*[[Donald Trump]] |
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* [[Uncommitted (voting option)|No preference]] |
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=== Declared candidates === |
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Additionally, voters had an option to vote for "[[Uncommitted (voting option)|No preference]]." |
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Former President [[Donald Trump]], former [[Governor of South Carolina]] and [[List of ambassadors of the United States to the United Nations|Ambassador to the United Nations]] [[Nikki Haley]], former [[Governor of Arkansas]] [[Asa Hutchinson]], Businessman [[Vivek Ramaswamy]], and radio host [[Larry Elder]] are the only main contenders to officially announce their candidacy so far.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Singman |first1=Brooke|title=Donald Trump announces 2024 re-election run for president|url=https://www.foxnews.com/politics/donald-trump-announces-2024-re-election-run-president|access-date=November 15, 2022 |work=[[Fox News]] |date=November 15, 2022}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|title=Nikki Haley announces 2024 White House bid|url=https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/14/politics/nikki-haley-2024-announcement/index.html |
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|access-date=February 14, 2023 |work=[[CNN]] |date=February 14, 2023|author1=Burlij, Terence|author2=Sullivan, Kate}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last1=Wiersema |first1=Alisa |title=ABC News exclusive: Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson announces 2024 presidential run|url=https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/abc-news-exclusive-former-arkansas-gov-asa-hutchinson/story?id=98238115 |access-date=April 2, 2023 |work=[[ABC News]]|date=April 2, 2023}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=Ramaswamy for President? Readers Respond|url=https://www.wsj.com/articles/vivek-ramaswamy-for-president-republican-2024-ad9976c5 |access-date=February 28, 2023 |website=The Wall Street Journal |language=en-US|date=February 27, 2023}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/20/larry-elder-2024-race-00093218|title= Larry Elder enters 2024 presidential race|author=Kelly Garrity |
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|accessdate=April 22, 2023|date=April 20, 2023|work=[[Politico]]}}</ref> |
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=== Potential candidates === |
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[[List of governors of Florida|Governor of]] [[Florida]] [[Ron DeSantis]] is widely expected to announce his candidacy as soon as May 2023.<ref>{{cite web |author=Contorno |first=Steve |last2=Warren |first2=Michael |date=November 16, 2022 |title=As Trump blusters, DeSantis builds his case but tells people to 'chill out' with 2024 talk |url=https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/16/politics/ron-desantis-donald-trump-2024-president/index.html |access-date=February 9, 2023 |work=CNN}}</ref> Commentators have described DeSantis as Trump's closest rival in the Republican primary based on primary polling taken in 2022 and 2023.<ref>{{Cite news |last=Ulmer |first=Alexandra |date=2022-02-27 |title=Trump wins CPAC conservative meeting's 2024 presidential straw poll |language=en |work=Reuters |url=https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-wins-cpac-conservative-meetings-2024-presidential-straw-poll-2022-02-27/ |access-date=2023-03-03}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Palmer |first=Ewan |date=2022-01-25 |title=Trump Blows Ron DeSantis Out of the Water in 2024 Presidential Polling |url=https://www.newsweek.com/trump-desantis-presidential-polls-2024-candidate-1672586 |access-date=2023-03-03 |website=Newsweek |language=en}}</ref> Former Vice President [[Mike Pence]] is also considering a candidacy for the Republican nomination.<ref name=":02">{{Cite web |last=McCormick |first=John |title=How Nikki Haley Went From Tea-Party Favorite to Governor to Trump 2024 Challenger |url=https://www.wsj.com/articles/nikki-haley-enters-gop-presidential-race-as-first-major-trump-challenger-4f88d0da |access-date=2023-02-15 |website=WSJ |language=en-US}}</ref> |
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Other Republicans reportedly considering a candidacy include Senator [[Tim Scott]] of [[South Carolina]]<ref>{{Cite web |last=Jones |first=Dustin |date=April 12, 2023 |title=South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott takes a significant step toward a presidential run |url=https://www.npr.org/2023/04/12/1166802875/tim-scott-presidential-exploratory-committee |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230412143745/https://www.npr.org/2023/04/12/1166802875/tim-scott-presidential-exploratory-committee |archive-date=April 12, 2023 |access-date=April 12, 2023 |website=NPR}}</ref>; Governor [[Chris Sununu]] of [[New Hampshire]]<ref>{{cite web |author1=LeBlanc, Paul |author2=Maher, Kit |date=January 29, 2023 |title=New Hampshire GOP governor says he's considering 2024 White House bid |url=https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/29/politics/chris-sununu-2024-president-cnntv/index.html |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230208043927/https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/29/politics/chris-sununu-2024-president-cnntv/index.html |archive-date=February 8, 2023 |access-date=February 6, 2023 |work=CNN}}</ref>; former Governor [[Chris Christie]] of [[New Jersey]]<ref>{{Cite web |last=King |first=Ryan |date=March 15, 2023 |title=Chris Christie lays out time frame for possible 2024 run |url=https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/chris-christie-lays-out-timeline-2024-run |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230315225505/https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/chris-christie-lays-out-timeline-2024-run |archive-date=March 15, 2023 |access-date=March 16, 2023 |website=Washington Examiner |language=en-USe}}</ref>; former [[National Security Advisor (United States)|National Security Advisor]] [[John Bolton]] of [[Maryland]]<ref>{{cite web |author=Watson, Kathryn |date=January 26, 2023 |title=Bolton says Trump's 2024 campaign is "poison" for GOP and will "continue to go downhill" |url=https://www.cbsnews.com/news/john-bolton-trump-2024-campaign-mike-pompeo/ |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230415103128/https://www.cbsnews.com/news/john-bolton-trump-2024-campaign-mike-pompeo/ |archive-date=April 15, 2023 |access-date=April 23, 2023 |work=CBS News}}</ref>; former Representative [[Mike Rogers (Michigan politician)|Mike Rogers]] of [[Michigan]]<ref>{{cite web |author=Steinhauser, Paul |date=March 21, 2023 |title=Potential 2024 GOP long shot says his ideas may be enough to boost him past Trump, DeSantis |url=https://www.foxnews.com/politics/potential-2024-gop-longshot-ideas-enough-boost-past-trump-desantis |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230321061313/https://www.foxnews.com/politics/potential-2024-gop-longshot-ideas-enough-boost-past-trump-desantis |archive-date=March 21, 2023 |access-date=March 21, 2023 |work=Fox News}}</ref>; former Representative [[Will Hurd]] of [[Texas]]<ref>{{cite web |author=Metzger, Bryan |date=April 23, 2023 |title=Former Rep. Will Hurd might launch a 2024 GOP presidential campaign. He's still waiting to see if his party agrees that 'we're better together.' |url=https://www.businessinsider.com/will-hurd-presidential-campaign-iowa-faith-better-together-2023-4 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230423200809/https://www.businessinsider.com/will-hurd-presidential-campaign-iowa-faith-better-together-2023-4 |archive-date=April 23, 2023 |access-date=April 23, 2023 |work=Business Insider}}</ref>; and [[List of mayors of Miami|Miami Mayor]] [[Francis X. Suarez]] of [[Florida]].<ref>{{Cite web |last=Schwartz |first=Brian |date=March 8, 2023 |title=Miami's popular Republican Mayor Suarez weighs GOP challenge to Trump for White House in 2024 |url=https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/08/miami-gop-mayor-suarez-weighs-challenge-to-trump-for-white-house.html |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230308172545/https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/08/miami-gop-mayor-suarez-weighs-challenge-to-trump-for-white-house.html |archive-date=March 8, 2023 |access-date=March 8, 2023 |website=CNBC}}</ref> |
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==Endorsements== |
==Endorsements== |
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{{main|Endorsements in the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries}} |
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{{Endorsements box|title=Donald Trump|list= |
{{Endorsements box|title=Donald Trump|list= |
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'''U.S. Senators''' |
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*[[Steve Daines]], (2015–present)<ref>{{Cite news |last=Swan |first=Jonathan |last2=Goldmacher |first2=Shane |last3=Haberman |first3=Maggie |date=April 24, 2023 |title=Trump Is Endorsed by a Senator With Sway on Republican Donors |work=New York Times |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/24/us/politics/trump-senate-endorsement-fundraising.html |access-date=April 24, 2023}}</ref> |
*[[Steve Daines]], (2015–present)<ref>{{Cite news |last=Swan |first=Jonathan |last2=Goldmacher |first2=Shane |last3=Haberman |first3=Maggie |date=April 24, 2023 |title=Trump Is Endorsed by a Senator With Sway on Republican Donors |work=New York Times |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/24/us/politics/trump-senate-endorsement-fundraising.html |access-date=April 24, 2023}}</ref> |
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'''U.S. Representatives''' |
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}} |
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* [[Matt Rosendale]], [[Montana's 2nd congressional district|MT-02]] (2023–present) and [[Montana's at-large congressional district|MT-AL]] (2021–2023)<ref name="Five38">{{cite news |title=Which 2024 Republican Presidential Candidate Has The Most Endorsements? |url=https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-endorsements/ |access-date=25 April 2023 |work=[[FiveThirtyEight]] |date=April 24, 2023}}</ref> |
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{{Endorsements box|title=Declined to endorse|list= |
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* [[Ryan Zinke]], [[Montana's 1st congressional district|MT-01]] (2023–present) and [[Montana's at-large congressional district|MT-AL]] (2015–2017) and [[United States Secretary of the Interior|U.S. Secretary of the Interior]] (2017–2019)<ref name="Five38" /> |
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;U.S. Representatives |
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'''State Executive officials''' |
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* [[Matt Rosendale]], [[Montana's 2nd congressional district|MT-02]] (2023–present) and [[Montana's at-large congressional district|MT-AL]] (2021–2023)<ref name=TrumpDim>{{cite web|url=https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/30/trump-standing-among-conservatives-dims-00089628|title=Trump’s standing among Hill conservatives dims ahead of ’24|date=March 30, 2023|first1=Olivia|first2=Burgess|last1=Beavers|last2=Everett|work=[[Politico]]|accessdate=April 11, 2023}}</ref> |
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* [[Elsie Arntzen]], [[Montana Office of Public Instruction|Superintendent of Public Instruction of Montana]] (2017–present)<ref name="Five38" /> |
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'''Notable individuals''' |
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*[[Tim Sheehy (American politician)|Tim Sheehy]], CEO of Bridger Aerospace and Republican candidate for [[U.S. Senator from Montana|U.S. Senator]] in [[2024 United States Senate election in Montana|2024]]<ref>{{Cite web |date=2023-06-01 |title=Meet The Millionaire 'Cowboy' And Ex-Navy SEAL Being Primed To Take On Sen. Jon Tester |url=https://sports.yahoo.com/meet-millionaire-cowboy-ex-navy-143352101.html |access-date=2023-09-02 |website=Yahoo Sports |language=en-US}}</ref> |
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}} |
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== |
==Results== |
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{{2024MTRep}} |
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{| class="wikitable tpl-blanktable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;" |
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==Polling== |
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{| class="wikitable mw-datatable" style="font-size:90%;text-align:center;" |
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|- valign=bottom style="font-size:90%;" |
|- valign=bottom style="font-size:90%;" |
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! Poll source |
! Poll source |
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| Line 67: | Line 73: | ||
! Sample<br />size{{efn|name=key}} |
! Sample<br />size{{efn|name=key}} |
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! Margin<br />{{nowrap|of error}} |
! Margin<br />{{nowrap|of error}} |
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! Chris<br />Christie |
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! Ron<br />DeSantis |
! Ron<br />DeSantis |
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! Nikki<br />Haley |
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! Mike<br />Pence |
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! Vivek<br />Ramaswamy |
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! Tim<br />Scott |
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! Donald<br />Trump |
! Donald<br />Trump |
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! Other |
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! Undecided |
! Undecided |
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|- |
|- |
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|[[Fabrizio, Lee & Associates]]<ref>[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20231107_MT_FabrizioMoreJobsLessGov.pdf Fabrizio, Lee & Associates]</ref> |
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|[https://netchoice.org/new-national-poll-89-of-americans-say-congress-should-focus-on-addressing-inflation-not-breaking-up-tech/ Echelon Insights] |
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| Oct 23–25, 2023 |
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| 600 (LV) |
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| ± 4.0% |
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| 2% |
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| 12% |
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| 7% |
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| 3% |
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| 3% |
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| 1% |
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| {{party shading/Republican}}|'''64%''' |
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| 2%{{Efn|"Doug Burgum & Asa Hutchinson with 1%; Larry Elder with 0%}} |
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| 6% |
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|- |
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|rowspan=2|[[J.L. Partners]]<ref>[https://static1.squarespace.com/enwiki/static/5db0ca668552dd5ab1168a91/t/64f0805b3ec83f5a106591d3/1693483100079/Republican+Primary+Voters+Toplines+V3.pdf J.L. Partners]</ref> |
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|rowspan=2| Aug 12–17, 2023 |
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|rowspan=2| 418 (LV) |
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|rowspan=2| ? |
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| 3% |
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| 15% |
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| 3% |
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| 2% |
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| 6% |
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| 3% |
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| {{party shading/Republican}}|'''52%''' |
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| 3%{{Efn|"Someone else" with 2%; Doug Burgum with 1%; Larry Elder, Asa Hutchinson & Francis Suarez with 0%}} |
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| 12% |
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|- |
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|– |
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|29% |
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|– |
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|– |
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|– |
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|– |
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| {{party shading/Republican}}|'''56%''' |
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|– |
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|15% |
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|- |
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|rowspan=2|[[Public Policy Polling|Public Policy Polling (D)]]<ref>[https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/rosendale-trump-lead-gop-field-in-montana-2/ Public Policy Polling (D)]</ref> |
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|rowspan=2| Jun 19–20, 2023 |
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|rowspan=2| 510 (LV) |
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|rowspan=2| ± 4.3% |
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| 4% |
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| 23% |
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| 5% |
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| 5% |
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| 3% |
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| 2% |
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| {{party shading/Republican}}|'''46%''' |
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|– |
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| 12% |
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|- |
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|– |
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|37% |
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|– |
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|– |
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|– |
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|– |
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| {{party shading/Republican}}|'''49%''' |
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|– |
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|14% |
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|- |
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|[[Echelon Insights]]<ref>[https://netchoice.org/new-national-poll-89-of-americans-say-congress-should-focus-on-addressing-inflation-not-breaking-up-tech/ Echelon Insights]</ref> |
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| Aug 31 – Sep 7, 2022 |
| Aug 31 – Sep 7, 2022 |
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| 142 (LV) |
| 142 (LV) |
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| ± 6.6% |
| ± 6.6% |
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|– |
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| 28% |
| 28% |
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|– |
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|– |
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|– |
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|– |
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| {{party shading/Republican}}|'''56%''' |
| {{party shading/Republican}}|'''56%''' |
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|– |
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| 16% |
| 16% |
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|} |
|} |
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== |
==See also== |
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* [[2024 Montana Democratic presidential primary]] |
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* [[2024 Republican Party presidential primaries]] |
* [[2024 Republican Party presidential primaries]] |
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* [[2024 United States presidential election]] |
* [[2024 United States presidential election]] |
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==Notes== |
==Notes== |
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{{notelist|refs=<ref name="key">Key:<br/>A – all adults<br/>RV – registered voters<br/>LV – likely voters<br/>V – unclear</ref>}} |
{{notelist|refs=<ref name="key">Key:<br />A – all adults<br />RV – registered voters<br />LV – likely voters<br />V – unclear</ref>}} |
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== |
==References== |
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{{Reflist}} |
{{Reflist}} |
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Latest revision as of 01:05, 30 December 2024
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31 Republican National Convention delegates | |||||||||||||||||||
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.jpg)
| Elections in Montana |
|---|
 |
The 2024 Montana Republican presidential primary was held on June 4, 2024, as part of the Republican Party primaries for the 2024 presidential election. 31 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention were allocated on a winner-take-all basis.[1] The contest was among the last in the Republican primary cycle, held alongside primaries in New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.
Candidates
[edit]Only one candidate filed for the primary election ballot:[2]
Additionally, voters had an option to vote for "No preference."
Endorsements
[edit]Donald Trump
U.S. Senators
- Steve Daines, (2015–present)[3]
U.S. Representatives
- Matt Rosendale, MT-02 (2023–present) and MT-AL (2021–2023)[4]
- Ryan Zinke, MT-01 (2023–present) and MT-AL (2015–2017) and U.S. Secretary of the Interior (2017–2019)[4]
State Executive officials
- Elsie Arntzen, Superintendent of Public Instruction of Montana (2017–present)[4]
Notable individuals
- Tim Sheehy, CEO of Bridger Aerospace and Republican candidate for U.S. Senator in 2024[5]
Results
[edit]| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 165,678 | 90.9% | 31 | 0 | 31 |
| No Preference | 16,570 | 9.1% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total: | 182,248 | 100.00% | 31 | 0 | 31 |
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Chris Christie |
Ron DeSantis |
Nikki Haley |
Mike Pence |
Vivek Ramaswamy |
Tim Scott |
Donald Trump |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[7] | Oct 23–25, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 2% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 64% | 2%[b] | 6% |
| J.L. Partners[8] | Aug 12–17, 2023 | 418 (LV) | ? | 3% | 15% | 3% | 2% | 6% | 3% | 52% | 3%[c] | 12% |
| – | 29% | – | – | – | – | 56% | – | 15% | ||||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[9] | Jun 19–20, 2023 | 510 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 4% | 23% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 46% | – | 12% |
| – | 37% | – | – | – | – | 49% | – | 14% | ||||
| Echelon Insights[10] | Aug 31 – Sep 7, 2022 | 142 (LV) | ± 6.6% | – | 28% | – | – | – | – | 56% | – | 16% |
See also
[edit]- 2024 Montana Democratic presidential primary
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 United States presidential election in Montana
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ "Montana Republican Presidential Nominating Process". thegreenpapers.com. March 5, 2023. Retrieved February 9, 2023.
- ^ Ambarian, Johnathon (May 23, 2024). "Montana presidential primary gives option for "no preference" votes". KTVH Helena. Retrieved May 30, 2024.
- ^ Swan, Jonathan; Goldmacher, Shane; Haberman, Maggie (April 24, 2023). "Trump Is Endorsed by a Senator With Sway on Republican Donors". New York Times. Retrieved April 24, 2023.
- ^ a b c "Which 2024 Republican Presidential Candidate Has The Most Endorsements?". FiveThirtyEight. April 24, 2023. Retrieved April 25, 2023.
- ^ "Meet The Millionaire 'Cowboy' And Ex-Navy SEAL Being Primed To Take On Sen. Jon Tester". Yahoo Sports. June 1, 2023. Retrieved September 2, 2023.
- ^ "Montana Presidential Primary". AP News. July 3, 2024. Retrieved July 30, 2024.
- ^ Fabrizio, Lee & Associates
- ^ J.L. Partners
- ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
- ^ Echelon Insights