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| swing_needed1 =
| swing_needed1 =
| seats1 =
| seats1 =
| image2 = [[File: Dean Winter Jobs plan for stadium.jpg]]
| image2 = {{CSS image crop |Image = Dean Winter Jobs plan for stadium (cropped).jpg|bSize = 140|cWidth = 110|cHeight = 150|oTop = 10|oLeft = 15|Location = center}}
| leader2 = [[Dean Winter]]
| leader2 = [[Dean Winter]]
| leader_since2 = [[2024 Tasmanian Labor Party leadership election|10 April 2024]]
| leader_since2 = [[2024 Tasmanian Labor Party leadership election|10 April 2024]]
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| leader_since5 = 14 May 2015
| leader_since5 = 14 May 2015
| party5 = Jacqui Lambie Network
| party5 = Jacqui Lambie Network
| leaders_seat5 = ''Not standing''{{efn|Lambie is a federal [[List of senators from Tasmania|Senator]].}}
| leaders_seat5 = ''Ineligible''{{efn|Lambie is currently federal [[List of senators from Tasmania|Senator]], and therefore ineligible to hold state office concurrently.}}
| popular_vote5 =
| popular_vote5 =
| percentage5 =
| percentage5 =
| swing5 =
| swing5 =
| last_election5 = 3 seats, 6.7%
| last_election5 = 3 seats, 6.7%
| seats_before5 = 3
| seats_before5 = 1
| seats_needed5 = {{increase}} 15
| seats_needed5 = {{increase}} 17
| swing_needed5 =
| swing_needed5 =
| seats5 =
| seats5 =
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| after_party =
| after_party =
}}
}}
The '''next Tasmanian state election''' will be held no later than 3 June 2028, to elect all 35 seats in the [[Tasmanian House of Assembly|House of Assembly]]. The election will be conducted by the [[Tasmanian Electoral Commission]] (TEC).


The '''Next Tasmanian state election''' will be held no later than 3 June 2028, to elect all 35 seats in the [[Tasmanian House of Assembly|House of Assembly]]. The election will be conducted by the [[Tasmanian Electoral Commission]] (TEC).
The [[Tasmanian Liberal Party|Liberal]] [[Second Rockliff ministry|government]], currently led by [[Premier of Tasmania|Premier]] [[Jeremy Rockliff]], will attempt to win a fifth consecutive term against the [[Tasmanian Labor Party|Labor]] opposition, led by [[Dean Winter]]. Minor parties, including the [[Tasmanian Greens|Greens]] and the [[Jacqui Lambie Network]] will also contest the election. The election will be conducted by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission.

[[Jacqui Lambie]] announced in 2024 that her party would not endorse candidates in any future state elections, however she would offer financial and other means of support for her party's only remaining MP, [[Andrew Jenner]], should he want to run for re-election.<ref>https://www.theaustralian.com.au/breaking-news/jacqui-lambies-announces-big-call-on-her-partys-role-in-tasmanian-politics/news-story/89cdb81ca0f3f86a862e05c1e7f1144b</ref>


== Background ==
== Background ==
{{See also|2021 Tasmanian state election}}
=== Previous election ===
The [[Tasmanian House of Assembly|House of Assembly]] uses the [[proportional voting|proportional]] [[Hare-Clark system]] of voting, with the 35 members elected from five seven-member constituencies. The Assembly's size is governed by the provisions of the ''Expansion of House of Assembly Act 2022'', assented to in December 2022.<ref name="auto4">{{cite web|url=https://www.legislation.tas.gov.au/view/html/inforce/2023-08-16/act-2022-040|title=Expansion of House of Assembly Act 2022|work=legislation.tas.gov.au}}</ref><ref>{{cite web | url=https://www.premier.tas.gov.au/site_resources_2015/additional_releases/restoring-the-size-of-parliament | title=Restoring the size of Parliament | publisher=The Department of Premier and Cabinet | date=9 August 2022 | accessdate=29 April 2023 | author=Rockliff, Jeremy | archive-date=29 April 2023 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230429051115/https://www.premier.tas.gov.au/site_resources_2015/additional_releases/restoring-the-size-of-parliament | url-status=live }}</ref> Elections for the 15-seat [[Single-winner voting system|single-member district]] upper house, known as the [[Tasmanian Legislative Council|Legislative Council]], which use full-preference [[Instant-runoff voting|instant-runoff]] voting, are staggered each year and conducted separately from lower house state elections with the next to be held in [[2025 Tasmanian Legislative Council periodic election|2025]].<ref>[https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/info/VotingSystems.html Voting Systems] [[Tasmanian Electoral Commission]]</ref>
The [[Tasmanian House of Assembly|House of Assembly]] uses the [[proportional voting|proportional]] [[Hare-Clark system]] of voting, with the 35 members elected from five seven-member constituencies. The Assembly's size is governed by the provisions of the ''Expansion of House of Assembly Act 2022'', assented to in December 2022.<ref name="auto4">{{cite web|url=https://www.legislation.tas.gov.au/view/html/inforce/2023-08-16/act-2022-040|title=Expansion of House of Assembly Act 2022|work=legislation.tas.gov.au}}</ref><ref>{{cite web | url=https://www.premier.tas.gov.au/site_resources_2015/additional_releases/restoring-the-size-of-parliament | title=Restoring the size of Parliament | publisher=The Department of Premier and Cabinet | date=9 August 2022 | accessdate=29 April 2023 | author=Rockliff, Jeremy | archive-date=29 April 2023 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230429051115/https://www.premier.tas.gov.au/site_resources_2015/additional_releases/restoring-the-size-of-parliament | url-status=live }}</ref> Elections for the 15-seat [[Single-winner voting system|single-member district]] upper house, known as the [[Tasmanian Legislative Council|Legislative Council]], which use full-preference [[Instant-runoff voting|instant-runoff]] voting, are staggered each year and conducted separately from lower house state elections with the next to be held in [[2025 Tasmanian Legislative Council periodic election|2025]].<ref>[https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/info/VotingSystems.html Voting Systems] [[Tasmanian Electoral Commission]]</ref>


The [[Tasmanian Liberal Party|Liberal Party]] won 14 of the 35 seats in the Assembly at the [[2024 Tasmanian state election|previous election]], and formed a [[minority government|minority]] [[Second Rockliff ministry|government]] with the support of three [[Jacqui Lambie Network]] members and two [[Independent politicians in Australia|independents]], namely [[Kristie Johnston]] and [[David O'Byrne]].<ref name=24April2024>{{cite web|url=https://amp.abc.net.au/article/103762394|title=Premier Jeremy Rockliff seals deals with key independents to prop up Tasmanian Liberal government|work=[[ABC News (Australia)|ABC News]]|date=24 April 2024|author=Adam Holmes}}</ref> [[Tasmanian Labor Party|Labor]] remained in [[Opposition (Australia)|opposition]] with 10 members and the [[Tasmanian Greens|Greens]] won five seats. The new parliament was opened on 14 May 2024, and Labor member [[Michelle O'Byrne]] was elected unopposed to the position of [[Speaker of the Tasmanian House of Assembly|Speaker]] of the Assembly.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://pulsetasmania.com.au/news/michelle-obyrne-tipped-to-take-over-speaker-role-from-mark-shelton-in-new-parliament/|title=Tasmanian Parliament elects Michelle O'Byrne as new speaker in uncontested vote|work=Pulse Tasmania|date=14 May 2024}}</ref><ref>[https://www.examiner.com.au/story/8627689/jln-members-back-michelle-obyrne-for-tasmanian-speakership/ Labor's Michelle O'Byrne officially new House of Assembly speaker] ''[[The Mercury]]'' 14 May 2024</ref>
The [[Tasmanian Liberal Party|Liberal Party]] won 14 of the 35 seats in the Assembly at the [[2024 Tasmanian state election|previous election]], and formed a [[minority government|minority]] [[Second Rockliff ministry|government]] with the support of three [[Jacqui Lambie Network]] members and two [[Independent politicians in Australia|independents]], namely [[Kristie Johnston]] and [[David O'Byrne]].<ref name=24April2024>{{cite web|url=https://amp.abc.net.au/article/103762394|title=Premier Jeremy Rockliff seals deals with key independents to prop up Tasmanian Liberal government|work=[[ABC News (Australia)|ABC News]]|date=24 April 2024|author=Adam Holmes}}</ref> [[Tasmanian Labor Party|Labor]] remained in [[Opposition (Australia)|opposition]] with 10 members and the [[Tasmanian Greens|Greens]] won five seats. The new parliament was opened on 14 May 2024, and Labor member [[Michelle O'Byrne]] was elected unopposed to the position of [[Speaker of the Tasmanian House of Assembly|Speaker]] of the Assembly.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://pulsetasmania.com.au/news/michelle-obyrne-tipped-to-take-over-speaker-role-from-mark-shelton-in-new-parliament/|title=Tasmanian Parliament elects Michelle O'Byrne as new speaker in uncontested vote|work=[[Pulse Tasmania]]|date=14 May 2024}}</ref><ref>[https://www.examiner.com.au/story/8627689/jln-members-back-michelle-obyrne-for-tasmanian-speakership/ Labor's Michelle O'Byrne officially new House of Assembly speaker] ''[[The Mercury (Hobart)|The Mercury]]'' 14 May 2024</ref>

=== Minority government arrangements and changes in parliament ===
On 24 August 2024, [[Jacqui Lambie Network]] (JLN) party leader [[Jacqui Lambie]] announced the party had expelled MPs [[Rebekah Pentland]] and [[Miriam Beswick]] over what she described as issues of accountability, transparency and integrity.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://pulsetasmania.com.au/news/jacqui-lambie-network-faces-collapse-as-two-tasmanian-mps-consider-leaving/|title=Two Tasmanian MPs booted from Jacqui Lambie Network for ‘failing to uphold values’|date=24 August 2024|work=Pulse Tasmania}}</ref> Both MPs subsequently became [[Independent (politician)|independents]] in the parliament, briefly reducing the government's confidence and supply numbers to 17 out of 35 seats. Shortly thereafter Pentland and Beswick issued a joint statement clarifying they would remain in parliament as independents, and that both would sign a new confidence and supply agreement with the government.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://pulsetasmania.com.au/news/ousted-jacqui-lambie-network-mps-commit-to-supporting-tasmanian-government/|title=Ousted Jacqui Lambie Network MPs commit to supporting Tasmanian Government|work=Pulse Tasmania|date=25 August 2024}}</ref> This agreement was confirmed on 27 August 2024.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://pulsetasmania.com.au/news/miriam-beswick-and-rebekah-pentland-sign-new-deal-with-premier-jeremy-rockliff/|title=Miriam Beswick and Rebekah Pentland sign new deal with Premier Jeremy Rockliff|work=Pulse Tasmania|date=27 August 2024}}</ref>

====Changes in the Tasmanian parliament after the 2024 election====
{|class="wikitable sortable" style="border: none;"
!rowspan="2" | Seat
!colspan="3" | Before
!colspan="2" | Change
!colspan="4" | After
|-
!Member
!colspan="2" | Party
!Type
!Date
!Date
!Member
!colspan="2" | Party
|-
|[[Division of Braddon (state)|Braddon]]
|[[Miriam Beswick]]
|{{Australian party style|jacqui lambie network}} |
|[[Jacqui Lambie Network]]
|Expulsion
|colspan=2 | 24 August 2024
|[[Miriam Beswick]]
|{{Australian party style|Independent}} |
|[[Independent politician|Independent]]
|-
|[[Division of Bass (state)|Bass]]
|[[Rebekah Pentland]]
|{{Australian party style|jacqui lambie network}} |
|[[Jacqui Lambie Network]]
|Expulsion
|colspan=2 | 24 August 2024
|[[Rebekah Pentland]]
|{{Australian party style|Independent}} |
|[[Independent politician|Independent]]
|-
|}

==Opinion polling==
===Voting intention===
{| class="wikitable toccolours" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="0" style="float:left; text-align:center; margin-right:.5em; margin-top:.4em;"
! rowspan="2" |Date
! rowspan="2" |Firm
! colspan="5" style="background:#ccc;" |Political parties
|-
! class="unsortable" style=background:{{Australian politics/party colours|liberal tas}} | {{coloured link|white|Tasmanian Liberal Party|LIB}}
! class="unsortable" style="background:#F00011" | {{coloured link|white|Tasmanian Labor Party|ALP}}
! class=unsortable style=background:#10C25B | {{coloured link|white|Tasmanian Greens|GRN}}
! class=unsortable style=background:#F7CD47 | {{coloured link|black|Jacqui Lambie Network|JLN}}
! class=unsortable style=background:lightgray | {{tooltip|OTH|Other}}
|-
!5-14 November 2024
|EMRS<ref name=":0">{{Cite web |date=14 November 2024 |title=EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll |url=https://www.emrs.com.au/sites/default/files/documents/2024-11/EMRS_State_Voting_Intentions_Report-November_2024.pdf |access-date=23 November 2024 |website=Enterprise Market and Research Services}}</ref>
| style=background:#bbeafa | '''35%'''
|31%
|14%
|6%
|14%
|-
!2-11 October 2024
|EMRS<ref>{{Cite web |title=EMRS Polling October 2024 on the Budget|url=https://pulsetasmania.com.au/news/emrs-poll-state-budget-labelled-irresponsible-and-poor-by-tasmanians/ |website=Pulse Tasmania |language=en-AU}}</ref>
| style="background:#bbeafa" | '''28%'''
|26%
|17%
|5%
|1%{{efn|8% unsure/prefer not to say}}
|-
!14-21 August 2024
|EMRS<ref name=":0" />
| style=background:#bbeafa | '''36%'''
|27%
|14%
|8%
|15%
|-
!August 2024
|Wolf & Smith<ref>{{Cite web |title=Polls: Resolve Strategic, RedBridge/Accent MRP poll, Wolf & Smith federal and state (open thread) – The Poll Bludger |url=https://www.pollbludger.net/2024/09/08/polls-resolve-strategic-redbridge-accent-mrp-poll-wolf-smith-federal-and-state-open-thread/ |access-date=2024-09-09 |website=www.pollbludger.net}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |title=Federal & State Political Poll |url=https://www.wolfandsmith.com/_files/ugd/78f0d6_6e205f4bb5fe401b8fee9f87b24dcd40.pdf |website=wolf+smith |page=27 |date=August 2024}}</ref>
| style="background:#bbeafa" | '''32%'''
|23%
|14%
|11%
|20%
|-
!16-23 May 2024
|EMRS<ref>{{Cite web |title=Voting intentions dashboard |url=https://www.emrs.com.au/votingintentions |access-date=2024-08-28 |website=emrs |language=en-AU}}</ref>
| style=background:#bbeafa | '''35%'''
|28%
|15%
|7%
|15%
|-
! style="background:#b0e9db;"| 23 March 2024
| style="background:#b0e9db;"|[[2024 Tasmanian state election|2024 Election]]
| style="background:#b0e9db;"|'''36.7%'''
| style="background:#b0e9db;" |29%
| style="background:#b0e9db;" |13.9%
| style="background:#b0e9db;" | 6.7%
| style="background:#b0e9db;" | 13.75
|}









=== Preferred Premier ===
{| class="toccolours" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="5" style="float:left; text-align:center; margin-right:.5em; margin-top:.4em; font-size:90%;"
! rowspan="2" |Date
! rowspan="2" |Firm
! colspan="7" style="background:#ccc;" |Party leaders
|-
! style="background:#00bfff;" |[[Jeremy Rockliff|Rockliff]]
! style="background:#f66;" |[[Dean Winter|Winter]]
! style="background:#ddd;" |Unsure
|-
!5–14 November 2024
|EMRS<ref name=":0" />
! style="background:#00bfff;" |'''43%'''
|37%
|19%
|-
!14–21 August 2024
|EMRS<ref name=":0" />
! style="background:#00bfff;" |'''45%'''
|30%
|25%
|-
!16–23 May 2021
|EMRS<ref name=":0" />
! style="background:#00bfff;" |'''40%'''
|32%
|26%
|}
{{-}}


== Notes ==
== Notes ==
Line 91: Line 236:


{{Tasmanian elections}}
{{Tasmanian elections}}
{{Politics of Australia}}


[[Category:2028 elections in Australia|Tasmania]]
{{DEFAULTSORT:Tasmanian state election, 2028}}
[[Category:2028 elections in Australia]]
[[Category:2020s in Tasmania|State election]]
[[Category:2020s in Tasmania|State election]]
[[Category:Elections in Tasmania|Next]]
[[Category:Elections in Tasmania|Next]]

Latest revision as of 09:43, 24 December 2024

Next Tasmanian state election
← 2024 No later than 3 June 2028 Next →
All 35 seats in the House of Assembly
18 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Jeremy-Rockliff.jpg
Dean Winter Jobs plan for stadium (cropped).jpg
Leader Jeremy Rockliff Dean Winter
Party Liberal Labor
Leader since 8 April 2022 10 April 2024
Leader's seat Braddon Franklin
Last election 14 seats, 36.7% 10 seats, 29.0%
Current seats 14 10
Seats needed Increase 4 Increase 8
 
Leader Rosalie Woodruff Jacqui Lambie
Party Greens Lambie Network
Leader since 13 July 2023 14 May 2015
Leader's seat Franklin Ineligible[a]
Last election 5 seats, 13.9% 3 seats, 6.7%
Current seats 5 1
Seats needed Increase 13 Increase 17
Incumbent Premier

Jeremy Rockliff
Liberal Party



The next Tasmanian state election will be held no later than 3 June 2028, to elect all 35 seats in the House of Assembly. The election will be conducted by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (TEC).

The Liberal government, currently led by Premier Jeremy Rockliff, will attempt to win a fifth consecutive term against the Labor opposition, led by Dean Winter. Minor parties, including the Greens and the Jacqui Lambie Network will also contest the election. The election will be conducted by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission.

Jacqui Lambie announced in 2024 that her party would not endorse candidates in any future state elections, however she would offer financial and other means of support for her party's only remaining MP, Andrew Jenner, should he want to run for re-election.[1]

Background

[edit]
See also: 2021 Tasmanian state election

Previous election

[edit]

The House of Assembly uses the proportional Hare-Clark system of voting, with the 35 members elected from five seven-member constituencies. The Assembly's size is governed by the provisions of the Expansion of House of Assembly Act 2022, assented to in December 2022.[2][3] Elections for the 15-seat single-member district upper house, known as the Legislative Council, which use full-preference instant-runoff voting, are staggered each year and conducted separately from lower house state elections with the next to be held in 2025.[4]

The Liberal Party won 14 of the 35 seats in the Assembly at the previous election, and formed a minority government with the support of three Jacqui Lambie Network members and two independents, namely Kristie Johnston and David O'Byrne.[5] Labor remained in opposition with 10 members and the Greens won five seats. The new parliament was opened on 14 May 2024, and Labor member Michelle O'Byrne was elected unopposed to the position of Speaker of the Assembly.[6][7]

Minority government arrangements and changes in parliament

[edit]

On 24 August 2024, Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) party leader Jacqui Lambie announced the party had expelled MPs Rebekah Pentland and Miriam Beswick over what she described as issues of accountability, transparency and integrity.[8] Both MPs subsequently became independents in the parliament, briefly reducing the government's confidence and supply numbers to 17 out of 35 seats. Shortly thereafter Pentland and Beswick issued a joint statement clarifying they would remain in parliament as independents, and that both would sign a new confidence and supply agreement with the government.[9] This agreement was confirmed on 27 August 2024.[10]

Changes in the Tasmanian parliament after the 2024 election

[edit]
Seat Before Change After
Member Party Type Date Date Member Party
Braddon Miriam Beswick Jacqui Lambie Network Expulsion 24 August 2024 Miriam Beswick Independent
Bass Rebekah Pentland Jacqui Lambie Network Expulsion 24 August 2024 Rebekah Pentland Independent

Opinion polling

[edit]

Voting intention

[edit]
Date Firm Political parties
LIB ALP GRN JLN OTH
5-14 November 2024 EMRS[11] 35% 31% 14% 6% 14%
2-11 October 2024 EMRS[12] 28% 26% 17% 5% 1%[b]
14-21 August 2024 EMRS[11] 36% 27% 14% 8% 15%
August 2024 Wolf & Smith[13][14] 32% 23% 14% 11% 20%
16-23 May 2024 EMRS[15] 35% 28% 15% 7% 15%
23 March 2024 2024 Election 36.7% 29% 13.9% 6.7% 13.75





Preferred Premier

[edit]
Date Firm Party leaders
Rockliff Winter Unsure
5–14 November 2024 EMRS[11] 43% 37% 19%
14–21 August 2024 EMRS[11] 45% 30% 25%
16–23 May 2021 EMRS[11] 40% 32% 26%

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Lambie is currently federal Senator, and therefore ineligible to hold state office concurrently.
  2. ^ 8% unsure/prefer not to say

References

[edit]
  1. ^ https://www.theaustralian.com.au/breaking-news/jacqui-lambies-announces-big-call-on-her-partys-role-in-tasmanian-politics/news-story/89cdb81ca0f3f86a862e05c1e7f1144b
  2. ^ "Expansion of House of Assembly Act 2022". legislation.tas.gov.au.
  3. ^ Rockliff, Jeremy (9 August 2022). "Restoring the size of Parliament". The Department of Premier and Cabinet. Archived from the original on 29 April 2023. Retrieved 29 April 2023.
  4. ^ Voting Systems Tasmanian Electoral Commission
  5. ^ Adam Holmes (24 April 2024). "Premier Jeremy Rockliff seals deals with key independents to prop up Tasmanian Liberal government". ABC News.
  6. ^ "Tasmanian Parliament elects Michelle O'Byrne as new speaker in uncontested vote". Pulse Tasmania. 14 May 2024.
  7. ^ Labor's Michelle O'Byrne officially new House of Assembly speaker The Mercury 14 May 2024
  8. ^ "Two Tasmanian MPs booted from Jacqui Lambie Network for 'failing to uphold values'". Pulse Tasmania. 24 August 2024.
  9. ^ "Ousted Jacqui Lambie Network MPs commit to supporting Tasmanian Government". Pulse Tasmania. 25 August 2024.
  10. ^ "Miriam Beswick and Rebekah Pentland sign new deal with Premier Jeremy Rockliff". Pulse Tasmania. 27 August 2024.
  11. ^ a b c d e "EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll" (PDF). Enterprise Market and Research Services. 14 November 2024. Retrieved 23 November 2024.
  12. ^ "EMRS Polling October 2024 on the Budget". Pulse Tasmania.
  13. ^ "Polls: Resolve Strategic, RedBridge/Accent MRP poll, Wolf & Smith federal and state (open thread) – The Poll Bludger". www.pollbludger.net. Retrieved 9 September 2024.
  14. ^ "Federal & State Political Poll" (PDF). wolf+smith. August 2024. p. 27.
  15. ^ "Voting intentions dashboard". emrs. Retrieved 28 August 2024.
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