Great storm of 1987: Difference between revisions
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{{Short description|1987 October storm in Western Europe}} |
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{{Use dmy dates|date=September 2012}} |
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{{redirect|Hurricane of 1987|the hurricane seasons that year|1987 Atlantic hurricane season|and|1987 Pacific hurricane season}} |
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{{Use British English|date=September 2012}} |
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{{Use British English|date=August 2023}} |
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{| class="infobox" |
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{{Use dmy dates|date=August 2023}} |
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{{Infobox weather event |
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! colspan="2" style="background:#b0c4de; text-align:center;"|'''The Great Storm of 1987''' |
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| image = Tempête Europe 1987.jpg |
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| caption = The storm at peak intensity over the [[North Sea]] |
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!colspan="2"|[[File:Tempête Europe 1987.jpg|270px]]<br /> |
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| formed = {{Start date|1987|10|15|df=y}} |
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|- |
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| dissipated = {{End date|1987|10|16|df=y}} |
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! colspan="2" style="background:#b0c4de; text-align:center;"|Data |
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}}{{Infobox weather event/Extratropical |
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|- |
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| pressure = 953 |
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|'''Formed:''' |
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| pressure-suffix = <ref name="2007 Report">{{cite web|author=United Kingdom Met Office|publisher=Risk Management Solutions|year=2007|access-date=2 August 2009|title=The Great Storm of 1987|url=http://forms2.rms.com/rs/729-DJX-565/images/ws_1987_great_storm_20_retrospective.pdf}}</ref> |
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|15 October 1987 |
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| winds = {{cvt|139|km/h|mph|order=flip}}<ref name="auto">{{cite web|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/cornwall/content/articles/2007/10/12/great_storm_feature.shtml |title=The 1987 Great Storm|publisher=BBC Cornwall |author=David Braine|date=28 October 2014|access-date=20 June 2018}}</ref> |
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|- |
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| gusts = {{cvt|216|km/h|mph|order=flip}}<ref name="auto"/> |
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|'''Dissipated:''' |
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}}{{Infobox weather event/Effects |
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|16 October 1987 |
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| fatalities = 22<ref name="MOstudent" >{{cite web|title=The Great Storm of 1987|url=http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/education/secondary/students/1987.html|publisher=Met Office|access-date=6 January 2013|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080907191422/http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/education/secondary/students/1987.html|archive-date=7 September 2008|location=Wayback Machine}}</ref> |
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|- |
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| damages = £2 billion ({{Inflation|UK|2|1987|fmt=c|r=3}} today), 23 billion francs ({{Inflation|UK|2.77|1987|fmt=c|r=3}} billion euro today){{citation needed|date=November 2020}} |
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|'''Lowest pressure:''' |
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| affected = [[United Kingdom]], [[France]], [[Spain]], [[Belgium]], [[Norway]] |
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|953 mbar (hPa)<ref name="2007 Report"/> |
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}}{{Infobox weather event/Footer |
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|- |
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| season = [[List of European windstorms#1975–1999|1987–1988 European windstorm season]] |
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|'''Highest winds:''' |
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}} |
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|216 km/h (134 mph)<ref name="2007 Report">{{cite web|author=United Kingdom Met Office|publisher=Risk Management Solutions|year=2007|accessdate=2 August 2009|title=The Great Storm of 1987|url=http://www.rms.com/Publications/Great_Storm_of_1987.pdf|format=PDF}}</ref> |
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|'''Countries affected''' |
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|<small>{{flagicon|France}} [[France]]</small><br/><small>{{flagicon|United Kingdom}} [[United Kingdom]]</small><br/> also [[Spain]], [[Belgium]] and [[Norway]]. |
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|- |
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|'''Fatalities:''' |
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|22 |
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|- |
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|'''Damages:''' |
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|UK: £2 billion (£{{Inflation|UK|2|1987|fmt=eq|fmt=c|r=3}} billion today)<br>France: 23 billion francs |
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|} |
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The ''' |
The '''great storm of 1987''' was a violent [[extratropical cyclone]] that occurred on the night of 15–16 October, with hurricane-force winds causing casualties in the [[United Kingdom]], [[France]], and the [[Channel Islands]] as a severe depression in the [[Bay of Biscay]] moved northeast. Among the most damaged areas were [[Greater London]], [[Kent]], the [[East Anglia]]n coast, the [[Home Counties]], the west of [[Brittany]], and the [[Cotentin Peninsula]] of [[Normandy]], all of which weathered gusts typically with a [[return period]] of 1 in 200 years.<ref name="Vidal" >{{cite news|last=Vidal|first=John|title=Sting jet technology means no more hurricane mishaps for Michael Fish|url=https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2012/oct/16/sting-jets-hurricane-michael-fish|access-date=8 December 2012|newspaper=The Guardian|date=16 October 2012}}</ref><ref name="UKMOBlog" >{{cite news|title=How did the 'Great Storm' of 1987 develop?|url=http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/tag/sting-jet/|access-date=8 December 2012|newspaper=Met Office News Blog|date=10 October 2012}}</ref> |
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Forests, parks, roads and railways were strewn with fallen trees |
Forests, parks, roads, and railways were strewn with fallen trees and schools were closed. The British [[National Grid (Great Britain)|National Grid]] suffered heavy damage, leaving thousands without power. At least 22 people were killed in England and France.<ref>{{cite web |last1=Lennon |first1=Sam |title=The Great Storm of 1987: Remembering devastating impact on Kent on 35th anniversary |url= https://www.kentonline.co.uk/kent/news/it-felt-like-the-world-was-ending-275099/#:~:text=The%20Great%20Storm%20of%201987%20was%20a%20violent%20extratropical%20cyclone,England%20and%20four%20in%20France. |website= www.kentonline.co.uk |date=15 October 2022 |publisher=KM Group |access-date=6 September 2023}}</ref><ref name="MOstudent" /> The highest measured gust of {{convert|117|kn|mph km/h|order=flip}} was recorded at Pointe Du Roc, [[Granville, Manche|Granville]], France and the highest gust in the UK of {{cvt|100|kn|mph km/h|order=flip}} was recorded at [[Shoreham-by-Sea|Shoreham]], [[West Sussex]].<ref name = has>{{Cite web |title= The Great Storm of 1987|url=https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/case-studies/great-storm |access-date=19 February 2022|website=Met Office|language=en}}</ref> The storm has been termed a [[weather bomb]] due to its rapid development.<ref name= "veconomist" >{{cite news|title=Ophelia's strange path|url=https://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21730329-unusual-storm-eastern-atlantic-ophelias-strange-path|newspaper=[[The Economist]]|date=16 October 2017}}</ref> |
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That day's weather reports had failed to indicate a storm of such severity, an earlier, correct forecast having been negated by later projections. The apparent suggestion by the BBC's [[Michael Fish]] of a false alarm |
That day's weather reports had failed to indicate a storm of such severity, an earlier, correct forecast having been negated by later projections. The apparent suggestion by the BBC's [[Michael Fish]] of a false alarm is celebrated as a classic gaffe, though he claims he was misquoted.<ref name="Fish" >{{cite news|title=Great Storm of 1987: Michael Fish's 'white lie'|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-19923565|access-date=8 December 2012|newspaper=BBC News|date=15 October 2012}}</ref> As a result of this storm, major improvements were later implemented in atmospheric observation, relevant computer models, and the training of forecasters.<ref name="Kinver" >{{cite news| url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7044050.stm | work=BBC News | title=Lessons learned from Great Storm | date=14 October 2007 | access-date=4 May 2010}}</ref> |
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Major improvements were later implemented in atmospheric observation, relevant computer models, and the training of forecasters.<ref name="Kinver" >{{cite news| url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7044050.stm | work=BBC News | title=Lessons learned from Great Storm | date=14 October 2007 | accessdate=4 May 2010}}</ref> |
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==Development== |
==Development== |
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[[File:Storm Damage 1987.jpg|thumb|275px|right|Partially cleared storm damage, [[Chelmsford]]]] |
[[File:Storm Damage 1987.jpg|thumb|275px|right|Partially cleared storm damage, [[Chelmsford]]]] |
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On the Sunday before the storm struck, the farmers' forecast had predicted bad weather on the following Thursday or Friday, 15–16 October.<ref name="Houghton" >{{cite journal|last=Houghton|first=J. T.|title=The Storm, The Media and the Enquiry|journal=Weather|volume=43|pages=67–70|doi=10.1002/j.1477-8696.1988.tb03883.x|url=http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1988.tb03883.x/abstract|accessdate=9 February 2013}}</ref> By midweek, however, guidance from [[numerical weather prediction|weather prediction models]] was somewhat equivocal. Instead of stormy weather over a considerable part of the UK, the models suggested that severe weather would reach no farther north than the [[English Channel]] and coastal parts of southern England.<ref name="Houghton" /> |
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On the Sunday before the storm struck, the farmers' forecast had predicted bad weather on the following Thursday or Friday, 15–16 October.<ref name="Houghton" >{{cite journal|last=Houghton|first=J. T.|title=The Storm, The Media and the Enquiry|journal=Weather|volume=43|issue=3|pages=67–70|doi=10.1002/j.1477-8696.1988.tb03883.x|bibcode = 1988Wthr...43...67H |year=1988}}</ref> By midweek, however, guidance from [[numerical weather prediction|weather prediction models]] was somewhat equivocal. Instead of stormy weather over a considerable part of the UK, the models suggested that severe weather would reach no farther north than the [[English Channel]] and coastal parts of southern England.<ref name="Houghton" /> |
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During the afternoon of 15 October, winds were very light over most parts of the UK. The pressure gradient was slack. A depression was drifting slowly northwards over the North Sea off eastern Scotland. A [[Trough (meteorology)|trough]] lay over England, Wales and Ireland. Over the [[Bay of Biscay]], a depression was developing.<ref name="BurtMansfield" /> |
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During the afternoon of 15 October, winds were very light over most parts of the UK. The pressure gradient was slack. A depression was drifting slowly northwards over the North Sea off eastern Scotland. A [[Trough (meteorology)|trough]] lay over England, Wales, and Ireland. Over the [[Bay of Biscay]], a depression was developing.<ref name="BurtMansfield" >{{cite journal|last=Burt|first=S. D.|author2=Mansfield, D. A.|title=The Great Storm of 15–16 October 1987|journal=Weather|year=1988|volume=43|issue=3|pages=90–108|doi=10.1002/j.1477-8696.1988.tb03885.x|bibcode=1988Wthr...43...90B}}</ref> |
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=== First warnings === |
=== First warnings === |
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{{more citations needed|section|date=October 2019}} |
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The first gale warnings for sea areas in the English Channel were issued at 0630 UTC on 15 October and were followed, four hours later, by warnings of severe gales. |
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At 1200 UTC on 15 October, the depression which originated in the Bay of Biscay was centred near 46° N, 9° W and its depth was 970 |
The first gale warnings for sea areas in the English Channel were issued at 0630 UTC on 15 October and were followed, four hours later, by warnings of severe gales.<ref name="has" /> At 1200 UTC on 15 October, the depression, which originated in the Bay of Biscay, was centred near 46° N, 9° W and its depth was {{cvt|970|hPa|inHg}}. By 1800 UTC, it had moved north-east to about 47° N, 6° W, and deepened to {{cvt|964 |hPa|inHg|abbr=on}}. |
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At 2235 UTC, winds of [[Beaufort scale|Force 10]] were forecast. By midnight, the depression was over the western English Channel, and its central pressure was 953 |
At 2235 UTC, winds of [[Beaufort scale|Force 10]] were forecast. By midnight, the depression was over the western English Channel, and its central pressure was {{cvt|953|hPa|inHg}}. At 0140 on 16 October, warnings of Force 11 were issued. The depression now moved rapidly north-east, filling a little as it did, reaching the Humber Estuary at about 0530 UTC, by which time its central pressure was {{convert|959|hPa|inHg}}. Dramatic increases in temperature were associated with the passage of the storm's warm front. |
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In some sea areas, warnings of severe weather were both timely and adequate, although forecasts for land areas left much to be desired. |
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During the evening of 15 October, radio and TV forecasts mentioned strong winds, but indicated that heavy rain would be the main feature, rather than wind. By the time most people went to bed, exceptionally strong winds had not been mentioned in national radio and TV weather broadcasts. |
During the evening of 15 October, radio and TV forecasts mentioned strong winds, but indicated that heavy rain would be the main feature, rather than wind. By the time most people went to bed, exceptionally strong winds had not been mentioned in national radio and TV weather broadcasts. |
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Warnings of severe weather had been issued, however, to various agencies and emergency authorities, including the [[London Fire Brigade]]. Perhaps the most important warning was issued by the Met Office to the [[Ministry of Defence (United Kingdom)|Ministry of Defence]] at 0135 UTC, 16 October. It warned that the anticipated consequences of the storm were such that civil authorities might need to call on assistance from the military. |
Warnings of severe weather had been issued, however, to various agencies and emergency authorities, including the [[London Fire Brigade]]. Perhaps the most important warning was issued by the [[Met Office]] to the [[Ministry of Defence (United Kingdom)|Ministry of Defence]] (MoD) at 0135 UTC, 16 October. It warned that the anticipated consequences of the storm were such that civil authorities might need to call on assistance from the military. |
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===Winds=== |
===Winds=== |
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[[File:Storm damaged building - Barton on Sea - October 1987.jpg|thumb|275px|right|Storm damaged building, [[Barton on Sea]] in Hampshire]] |
[[File:Storm damaged building - Barton on Sea - October 1987.jpg|thumb|275px|right|Storm damaged building, [[Barton on Sea]] in Hampshire]] |
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A highest gust of {{ |
A highest gust of {{cvt|119|kn|km/h mph|disp=flip}} is estimated from satellite data at [[Quimper]], Brittany, with the highest measured gust at {{cvt|117|kn|km/h mph|disp=flip}} at Pointe du Roc, [[Granville, Manche|Granville]], Normandy.<ref name="MOstudent" /> |
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In south-east England, where the greatest damage occurred, gusts of {{ |
In south-east England, where the greatest damage occurred, gusts of {{cvt|70|kn|disp=flip}} or more were recorded continually for three or four consecutive hours. |
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During this time, the wind veered from southerly to south-westerly. To the north-west of this region, there were two maxima in gust speeds, separated by a period of lower wind speeds. During the first period, the wind direction was southerly. During the latter, it was south-westerly. Damage patterns in south-east England suggested that |
During this time, the wind veered from southerly to south-westerly. To the north-west of this region, there were two maxima in gust speeds, separated by a period of lower wind speeds. During the first period, the wind direction was southerly. During the latter, it was south-westerly. Damage patterns in south-east England suggested that tornadoes accompanied the storm. |
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In the UK, |
In the UK, winds at [[Shoreham-by-Sea]], Sussex reached {{cvt|100|kn|km/h mph|disp=flip}} before the [[anemometer]] failed.<ref name="MOstudent" /><ref name="stingflyer" >{{cite web|title=The 1987 Great Storm – What is a Sting Jet?|url=http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/in-depth/1987-great-storm/sting-jet|publisher=Met Office|access-date=27 February 2013}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|title=The Sting Jet Forecasting the damaging winds in European Cyclones|url=http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/2/p/Sting_Jet_Flyer.PDF|publisher=Met Office|access-date=27 February 2013|archive-date=15 July 2015|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150715094109/http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/2/p/Sting_Jet_Flyer.PDF|url-status=dead}}</ref> Many anemometers were reliant on mains power, and ceased recording as the south east of the United Kingdom was blacked-out by power cuts, thus losing much valuable data.<ref name="BurtMansfield" /> |
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Winds with an estimated 200 |
Winds with an estimated 200-year [[return period]] hit the counties of Kent, Sussex, Berkshire, Hampshire, and along the coastal strip of Essex, Suffolk, and south-eastern Norfolk.<ref name="BurtMansfield" /> North of a line from [[Portland Bill]], Dorset to [[Cromer]], Norfolk the return period of the respective gusts were under 10 years.<ref name="BurtMansfield" /> |
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According to the [[Beaufort scale]] of wind intensities, this [[European windstorm|storm]] had winds of hurricane force; as the term ''[[hurricane]]'' refers to [[tropical cyclone]]s originating in the North Atlantic or North Pacific, the |
Sustained winds speeds greater than {{cvt|75|mph|km/h|disp=flip}} were recorded for over an hour in southern Britain.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/cornwall/content/articles/2007/10/12/great_storm_feature.shtml|title= The 1987 Great Storm|author=David Braine|work=BBC|date=12 December 2007|access-date=25 August 2017}}</ref> According to the [[Beaufort scale]] of wind intensities, this [[European windstorm|storm]] had winds of hurricane force 12 ({{cvt|73|mph|km/h|order=flip|disp=sqbr}} or greater); as the term ''[[hurricane]]'' refers to [[tropical cyclone]]s originating in the North Atlantic or North Pacific, the descriptor "great storm" has tended to be reserved for those storms in recent years reaching this velocity. Hurricanes have a very different wind profile and distribution from storms, and significantly higher precipitation levels. |
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==Impact== |
==Impact== |
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===United Kingdom=== |
===United Kingdom=== |
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[[File:Aftermath of the Great Storm of 1987.jpg|thumb|275px|right|Storm damage in London]] |
[[File:Aftermath of the Great Storm of 1987.jpg|thumb|275px|right|Storm damage in London]] |
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[[File:Leicester Square - geograph.org.uk - 3435454.jpg|thumb|275px|Fallen tree and upturned benches in London's [[Leicester Square]]]] |
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The storm made landfall in [[Cornwall]], before tracking north-east towards [[Devon]] and then over the [[English Midlands|Midlands]], going out to sea via [[The Wash]]. The strongest gusts, of up to {{convert|100|kn|lk=in}}, were recorded along the south-eastern edge of the storm, hitting mainly [[Hampshire]], [[Sussex]], [[Essex]] and [[Kent]]. The [[Royal Sovereign lighthouse]] {{convert|6|mi}} off [[Eastbourne]] recorded wind speeds on their instruments pegged at 110 mph offscale high, i.e. could read no higher. |
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The storm made landfall in [[Cornwall]], and tracked north-east towards [[Devon]] and then over the [[English Midlands|Midlands]], going out to sea via [[The Wash]]. The strongest gusts, of up to {{convert|100|kn|lk=in}}, were recorded along the south-eastern edge of the storm, hitting mainly [[Berkshire]], [[Hampshire]], [[Sussex]], [[Essex]], and [[Kent]]. The [[Royal Sovereign lighthouse]] {{convert|6|mi}} off [[Eastbourne]] recorded the highest hourly-mean wind speed in the UK on its instruments at {{convert|75|kn|km/h mph|abbr=on}}.<ref name="has" /> The [[Ceremonial counties of England|counties]] of [[Dorset]]<ref>{{Cite web |title=PICTURES: How the Great Storm of 1987 devastated Dorset |url=https://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/15587644.pictures-great-storm-1987-devastated-dorset/ |access-date=2022-07-15 |website=Bournemouth Echo |date=15 October 2020 |language=en}}</ref> and [[Surrey]] were also heavily affected.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Kondonis |first=Dimitri |date=2016-10-15 |title=29 years on, Get Surrey looks back at the 1987 Great Storm |url=http://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/nostalgia/surrey-1987-29-years-uks-12028151 |access-date=2022-07-15 |website=SurreyLive |language=en}}</ref> |
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The storm caused substantial damage over much of England, |
The storm caused substantial damage over much of England, felling an estimated 15 million trees<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gardening/3344946/The-Great-Storm-of-1987-remembered.html|title=The Great Storm of 1987 remembered|last=Richardson|first=Tim|date=12 October 2007|work=The Daily Telegraph|access-date=6 May 2010}}</ref> (including six of the seven eponymous oaks in [[Sevenoaks]],<ref> |
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{{cite web |
{{cite web |
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| title = A brief history of Sevenoaks Town |
| title = A brief history of Sevenoaks Town |
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| work = History of Sevenoaks |
| work = History of Sevenoaks |
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| publisher = Sevenoaks Life |
| publisher = Sevenoaks Life |
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| url = http://www.sevenoaks-life.co.uk/content/view/166/89/ |
| url = http://www.sevenoaks-life.co.uk/content/view/166/89/ |
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| |
| access-date = 28 July 2008 |
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| url-status = dead |
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}} |
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| archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20110526150156/http://www.sevenoaks-life.co.uk/content/view/166/89/ |
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</ref> historic specimens in [[Kew Gardens]], [[Wakehurst Place]], Nymans Garden, [[Hyde Park, London|Hyde Park]], London and [[Scotney Castle]]<ref>These much-visited gardens were noted in an editorial in ''Horticulture: The Magazine of American Gardening'', November 1988:13.</ref> and most of the trees making up [[Chanctonbury Ring]]). At [[Bedgebury National Pinetum]], Kent almost a quarter of the trees were brought down.<ref name='BedgeburyArchaeology'>{{cite web|url=http://www.forestry.gov.uk/forestry/INFD-7HPBY7 |title=Summary of the Bedgebury Forest archaeological survey |accessdate=2009-10-01 |work=Bedgebury Forest archaeological survey |publisher=[[Forestry Commission]] }}</ref><ref name='BedgeburyHistory'>{{cite web|url=http://www.forestry.gov.uk/website/forestry.nsf/byunique/infd-6n4fdx |title=History of Bedgebury National Pinetum |accessdate=2009-10-01 |publisher=[[Forestry Commission]] }}</ref> |
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| archive-date = 26 May 2011 |
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}}</ref> historic specimens in [[Kew Gardens]], [[Wakehurst Place]], [[Nymans]] Garden, [[Hyde Park London|Hyde Park]] in London, and [[Scotney Castle]]<ref>These much-visited gardens were noted in an editorial in ''Horticulture: The Magazine of American Gardening'', November 1988:13.</ref> and most of the trees making up [[Chanctonbury Ring]]). At [[Bedgebury National Pinetum]], Kent almost a quarter of the trees were brought down.<ref name='BedgeburyArchaeology'>{{cite web |url=http://www.forestry.gov.uk/forestry/INFD-7HPBY7 |title=Summary of the Bedgebury Forest archaeological survey |access-date=2009-10-01 |work=Bedgebury Forest archaeological survey |publisher=[[Forestry Commission]] |archive-date=3 November 2009 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20091103121135/http://www.forestry.gov.uk/forestry/INFD-7HPBY7 |url-status=dead }}</ref><ref name='BedgeburyHistory'>{{cite web |url=http://www.forestry.gov.uk/website/forestry.nsf/byunique/infd-6n4fdx |title=History of Bedgebury National Pinetum |access-date=2009-10-01 |publisher=[[Forestry Commission]] |archive-date=8 October 2009 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20091008112133/http://www.forestry.gov.uk/website/forestry.nsf/byunique/infd-6n4fdx |url-status=dead }}</ref> There have been many claims that the damage to forestry was made worse by broadleaf trees still being in leaf at the time of the storm, though this was not borne out by an analysis by the [[Forestry Commission]].<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Quine|first1=C. P.|title=Damage to Trees and Woodlands in the Storm of 15-16 October 1987|journal=Weather|date=March 1988|volume=43|issue=3|pages=114–118|doi=10.1002/j.1477-8696.1988.tb03888.x|bibcode = 1988Wthr...43..114Q }}<!--|access-date=8 September 2015--></ref> |
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Fallen trees blocked roads and railways and left widespread structural damage primarily to windows and roofs. |
Fallen trees blocked roads and railways, and left widespread structural damage primarily to windows and roofs. More than 5,000 trees fell on railway tracks in the [[Southern Region of British Railways|Southern Region]], and the [[Midland Main Line|Midland]] and [[West Coast Main Line|West Coast main lines]] were blocked.<ref name=Rail /> [[Beach hut]]s were blown onto tracks at [[Leigh-on-Sea]].<ref name=Rail>{{cite news |title=The big storm |work=[[Rail (magazine)|Rail]] |issue=76 |date=January 1988 |page=14}}</ref> The roofs and canopies at [[Limehouse railway station|Limehouse]] and [[Benfleet railway station|Benfleet stations]] were destroyed, and £300,000 of damage was caused to construction work on a new [[train ferry]] pier at [[Dover Western Docks|Dover Western Docks station]].<ref name=Rail /> |
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Several hundred thousand people were left without power, not fully restored until more than two weeks later. Local electric utility officials later said they lost more wires in the storm than in the preceding decade. At sea, as well as many [[RNLB Keith Anderson (ON 1106)#The Great Storm of 1987 and the rescue of the "La Francoise"|small boats]] being wrecked, a [[Sealink]] cross-channel ferry, the [[MV Panagia Tinou (1972)|MV ''Hengist'']], was driven ashore at [[Folkestone]] and the bulk carrier MV ''Sumnea'' capsized at [[Dover]], Kent.<ref name=Times171087>{{Cite newspaper The Times |title=Wasted warning of the storm |author=Tony Dawe, Robert Matthews and Nicholas Wood |date=17 October 1987 |page=1 |issue=62902 |column=A-H }}</ref> The [[Radio Caroline]] ship [[MV Ross Revenge|MV ''Ross Revenge'']] weathered the storm in the north sea, being one of the few ships to be in the North Sea during the storm; it being a radio ship, it also provided radio broadcasts to thousands while most stations were offline.<ref>{{Cite web|last=Conway|first=Steve|year=2004|title=The day of the great hurricane|url=https://www.icce.rug.nl/~soundscapes/DATABASES/CAR/car17.shtml|website=soundscapes|series=volume 7|access-date=12 December 2021|archive-date=28 September 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210928193743/https://www.icce.rug.nl/~soundscapes/DATABASES/CAR/car17.shtml|url-status=dead}}</ref> |
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The National Grid sustained heavy damage during the event, as crashing cables short-circuited, which in some cases overheated the main system. Its headquarters faced the choice of keeping the Grid online to help London as the storm approached but risk an incremental system breakdown, failure and burnout, or to shut down most of South East England including London and avert that risk. The headquarters made the decision, the first one like it since before [[World War II]]: to shut down the South East power systems to maintain the network as soon as signs of overheating began.{{verification needed|date=October 2013}} |
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The National Grid sustained heavy damage during the event, as crashing cables short-circuited, which in some cases overheated the main system. Its headquarters faced the choice of keeping the grid online to help London as the storm approached but risk an incremental system breakdown, failure and burnout, or to shut down most of South East England including London and avert that risk. The headquarters made the decision, the first one like it since before [[World War II]]: to shut down the South East power systems to maintain the network as soon as signs of overheating began.<ref name="metlinkreport">{{cite web |url=http://www.metlink.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/articles/the_great_storm_of_1987_burt_mansfield.pdf |title=The Great Storm of 15-16 October 1987, pp 108 |first1=S. D. |last1=Burt |first2=D. A. |last2=Mansfield |website=MetLink.org |publisher=Royal Meteorological Society |access-date=3 May 2019 |archive-date=25 November 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201125140748/http://www.metlink.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/articles/the_great_storm_of_1987_burt_mansfield.pdf |url-status=dead }}</ref> |
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In London, many of the [[Avenue (landscape)|trees lining streets]] were blown down overnight, particularly [[plane trees]], blocking roads and crushing parked cars. Building construction scaffolding and billboards had collapsed in many places, and many buildings were damaged. The following morning, the BBC's largest broadcasting site, Lime Grove Centre in [[White City, London|White City]] was unable to function due to a power failure — [[ITV Network|ITV]]'s [[TV-am]] and [[BBC One|BBC1's]] ''[[Breakfast Time]]'' programmes were broadcast from markedly different emergency facilities, on emergency formats. Much of the public transport in the capital was not functioning, and people were advised against trying to go to work. |
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At [[Clayton, West Sussex|Clayton]], [[West Sussex]], one of the village's recently restored [[Clayton Windmills|windmills]], ''Jill'', sustained severe damage to its mechanisms and caught fire during the storm. The mill's brakes had been applied prior to the storm's arrival, but the high winds were able to rotate the sails and overcome the brakes, creating friction which set the mill's antique timbers on fire. Members of the Jack and Jill Windmills Society were able to put the fire out, carrying water up the hill to douse the flames.<ref>{{Cite web|title=Jack and Jill Windmills Society |url=https://www.jillwindmill.org.uk/1987.htm|access-date=2021-02-15|website=www.jillwindmill.org.uk}}</ref> |
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Similar strength storms in the United Kingdom since 1960: |
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*[[St. Jude storm]]/Cyclone Christian in October 2013, causing 17 deaths, more severe in Denmark |
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In London, many of the [[avenue (landscape)|trees lining streets]], particularly [[plane trees]], were blown down overnight, blocking roads and crushing parked cars. Building construction scaffolding and billboards collapsed in many places, and many buildings were damaged. The following morning, the BBC's Current Affairs Production Centre at the former [[Lime Grove Studios]] in Shepherd's Bush, was unable to function due to a power failure – [[ITV (TV channel)|ITV]]'s [[TV-am]] and [[BBC One|BBC1]]'s ''[[Breakfast Time (British TV programme)|Breakfast Time]]'' programmes were broadcast from different emergency facilities in emergency formats. TV-am broadcast from [[Thames Television]]'s Euston Road studios, while BBC newsreader [[Nicholas Witchell]] had to broadcast from the BBC1 continuity studio at [[BBC Television Centre]], with the wall decorations used for [[CBBC (TV channel)|Children's BBC]] hastily taken down. Much of the [[public transport]] in the capital was not functioning, and people were advised against trying to go to work. TV-am host [[Anne Diamond]] did go back to the regular TV-am studio with reporter [[Kay Burley]], whilst [[Richard Keys]] remained in the Thames Television studio in case the power supply situation became even worse, and indeed, power did go back down at around 8:15 am. |
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===France=== |
===France=== |
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The [[Departments of France|départements]] of [[Finistère]], [[Morbihan]], [[Côtes-d'Armor]] and [[Ille-et-Vilaine]] in |
The [[Departments of France|départements]] of [[Finistère]], [[Morbihan]], [[Côtes-d'Armor]], and [[Ille-et-Vilaine]] in Brittany, and the [[Cotentin Peninsula]] ([[Manche]] and part of [[Calvados (department)|Calvados]]) in [[Normandy]] were the areas in France most affected by the storm, which followed a line from Morbihan and Rennes to Deauville.<ref name="alertes-meteo.com">{{cite web |url=http://www.alertes-meteo.com/tempete/tempete_1987.htm |title= L'Ouest balayé par un ouragan dévastateur (the West swept up by a devastating hurricane)|date= 23 February 2024|publisher= Météo France (government organisation)|language=fr}}</ref> 1.79 million homes were left without electricity supply and water, and a quarter of Brittany's forest was destroyed. The total damage was estimated at [[French Franc|₣]]23 billion. |
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[[Météo France]] announced "{{lang|fr|une petite tempête en provenance des Açores}}" (a little storm coming in from the Azores), which reached Brittany's coast at about |
[[Météo France]] announced "{{lang|fr|une petite tempête en provenance des Açores}}" (a little storm coming in from the Azores), which reached Brittany's coast at about 18:00, later than expected. This depression caused little damage, with only {{convert|50|to|60|km/h|mph kn|abbr=on}} winds. A much deeper depression hit [[Ushant]] on the extreme western tip of Brittany at midnight. It was measured at {{convert|948|mbar|inHg|abbr=on}} at the [[Brest, France|Brest]]-Guipavas weather station, the lowest reading in its records dating back to 1945.<ref name="alertes-meteo.com"/> |
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Weather stations on the coast at [[pointe du Raz]], [[pointe Saint-Mathieu]] and [[Penmarch]] gave no readings, as they were damaged by the high winds. The wind speed measured at Brest was {{convert|148|km/h|mph kn|abbr=on}}. The centre of the storm crossed Brittany from [[Penmarch]] to [[Saint-Brieuc]] at {{convert|110|km/h|mph kn|abbr=on}}, with gusts of wind up to {{convert|187|km/h|mph kn|abbr=on}} at [[Quimper, Finistère|Quimper]], {{convert|200|km/h|mph kn|abbr=on}} at |
Weather stations on the coast at [[pointe du Raz]], [[pointe Saint-Mathieu]] and [[Penmarch]] gave no readings, as they were damaged by the high winds. The wind speed measured at Brest was {{convert|148|km/h|mph kn|abbr=on}}. The centre of the storm crossed Brittany from [[Penmarch]] to [[Saint-Brieuc]] at {{convert|110|km/h|mph kn|abbr=on}}, with gusts of wind up to {{convert|187|km/h|mph kn|abbr=on}} at [[Quimper, Finistère|Quimper]], {{convert|200|km/h|mph kn|abbr=on}} at Ushant, and {{convert|220|km/h|mph kn|abbr=on}} at la pointe de Penmarch and [[Granville, Manche|Granville]]. Waves were measured at {{convert|16|m|abbr=on}} off Ushant and [[Belle Île]].<ref name="alertes-meteo.com"/> |
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Similar strength storms in France since 1960: |
Similar strength storms in France since 1960: |
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*Tempête Vivian in 1990 (generally milder) |
*Tempête Vivian in 1990 (generally milder) |
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*[[ |
*[[Cyclones Lothar and Martin]] in December 1999, which claimed 140 lives, equally severe in Germany, more southern neighbouring countries also saw multiple deaths. |
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*[[Cyclone Klaus]] which struck worse southern France and northern Spain in 2009 and claimed 26 lives. |
*[[Cyclone Klaus]] which struck worse southern France and northern Spain in 2009 and claimed 26 lives. |
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Line 109: | Line 102: | ||
[[File:Station closed October 1987.jpg|250px|thumb|'Station closed' notice at [[Honor Oak Park railway station|Honor Oak Park]], 16 October 1987.]] |
[[File:Station closed October 1987.jpg|250px|thumb|'Station closed' notice at [[Honor Oak Park railway station|Honor Oak Park]], 16 October 1987.]] |
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The [[MS Herald of Free Enterprise|MS ''Herald of Free Enterprise'']] was caught in the storm off [[Cape Finisterre]] as it was making its way for scrapping in Taiwan. The ship was cast adrift after its tow rope parted, finally resuming its journey on 19 October 1987.<ref>{{cite news|last1=Gripper|first1=Ann|title=UK weather: A look back at the devastating Great Storm of 1987 that nobody predicted|url=https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-look-back-devastating-1380404|access-date=30 May 2015|work=Daily Mirror|date=25 October 2013}}</ref> |
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==Aftermath== |
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The storm cost the insurance industry £2bn, making it the second most expensive UK weather event on record to insurers after the [[Burns' Day storm]] of 1990.<ref> {{cite news | title = UK storm payout 'may hit £350m' | url = http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6380123.stm | work = [[BBC News]] | publisher = [[bbc.co.uk]] | date = 20 February 2007 | accessdate = 20 February 2007 | quote = The 'great storm' of 1987, which cost the industry £2bn, was the second most expensive. |
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}} </ref> Peak wind velocities were in the early hours of the morning, which may have helped reduce the death toll. |
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The storm hit the [[Isle of Wight]] at 2am, and [[Shanklin]] Pier on the south-east coast of the Island was broken into three pieces as a result of mountainous waves. Plans to rebuild the pier were soon abandoned, and the rest of the pier was demolished by contractors shortly afterwards. A monument now stands in front of what used to be the pier entrance. |
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==Aftermath== |
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A great deal of effort and money was put into the post-storm clean-up of forests and wooded areas. The writer [[Oliver Rackham]] and the charity [[Common Ground (charity)|Common Ground]], were active in trying to prevent unnecessary destruction of trees which, although fallen, were still living.<ref>{{cite news |url=http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?xml=/earth/2007/10/13/eastorm113.xml&page=1 |title=1987 Great Storm: Terrible blow, not a knockout | work=The Daily Telegraph | location=London | first=Jack | last=Watkins | date=13 October 2007 | accessdate=4 May 2010}}</ref><ref>Oliver Rackham, ''Trees & Woodland in the British Landscape'' p. 202–3 (Dent, 1990)</ref> Some landowners, such as the [[National Trust]], did not attempt complete clearing and replanting, realising that there was a unique opportunity to study the patterns of natural regeneration after such an event.<ref>see e.g. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/3310333/1987-Great-Storm-Terrible-blow-not-a-knockout.html</ref> |
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The storm cost the insurance industry £2 billion, making it the second most expensive UK weather event on record to insurers after the [[Burns' Day Storm]] of 1990.<ref>{{cite news | title = UK storm payout 'may hit £350m' | url = http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6380123.stm | work = [[BBC News]] | publisher = [[bbc.co.uk]] | date = 20 February 2007 | access-date = 20 February 2007 | quote = The 'great storm' of 1987, which cost the industry £2bn, was the second most expensive. |
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}}</ref> Peak wind velocities were in the early hours of the morning, which may have helped reduce the death toll. |
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The storm hit the [[Isle of Wight]] at 02:00. [[Shanklin Pier]], a central landmark in the seaside resort of [[Shanklin]] on the south-east coast of the island, was broken into three pieces as a result of mountainous waves in [[Sandown Bay]] that struck the structure. Plans to rebuild the pier were soon abandoned as the company supervising the pier's refurbishment prior to the storm went bankrupt, and the rest of the pier was demolished by contractors shortly afterwards. A monument now stands in front of what used to be the pier entrance. |
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A great deal of effort and money was put into the post-storm clean-up of forests and wooded areas. The writer [[Oliver Rackham]] and the charity [[Common Ground (United Kingdom)|Common Ground]] were active in trying to prevent unnecessary destruction of trees which, although fallen, were still living.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?xml=/earth/2007/10/13/eastorm113.xml&page=1 |title=1987 Great Storm: Terrible blow, not a knockout | work=The Daily Telegraph | location=London | first=Jack | last=Watkins | date=13 October 2007 | access-date=4 May 2010}}{{dead link|date=July 2021|bot=medic}}{{cbignore|bot=medic}}</ref><ref>Oliver Rackham, ''Trees & Woodland in the British Landscape'' p. 202–3 (Dent, 1990)</ref> Some landowners, such as the [[National Trust]], did not attempt complete clearing and replanting, realising that there was a unique opportunity to study the patterns of natural regeneration after such an event.<ref>see e.g. [https://web.archive.org/web/20100729193443/http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/3310333/1987-Great-Storm-Terrible-blow-not-a-knockout.html]</ref> |
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A number of [[wild boar]] may have escaped from captivity during the storm, after enclosures were damaged by falling trees. These boar have since bred and established populations in woods across southern England.<ref>{{cite news|last=Britten|first=Nick|title=Wild boar back from extinction|url=http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/4793881/Wild-boar-back-from-extinction.html|accessdate=1 August 2012|newspaper=The Telegraph|date=17 Mar 2004}}</ref> |
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A number of [[wild boar]] may have escaped from captivity during the storm, after enclosures were damaged by falling trees. These boar have since bred and established populations in woods across southern England.<ref>{{cite news|last=Britten|first=Nick|title=Wild boar back from extinction|url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/4793881/Wild-boar-back-from-extinction.html|access-date=1 August 2012|newspaper=The Telegraph|date=17 March 2004}}</ref> |
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A more positive aspect could be found among some British gardeners; as Heather Angell wrote in the [[Royal Horticultural Society]]'s ''Journal'': |
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<blockquote>In some places this natural disaster has resulted in splendid vistas- views long since forgotten by some and never before seen by a whole new generation. Because of gaps left by fallen trees, visitors to [[Arundel Castle]], the ancestral home of the Dukes of Norfolk, can now look out over the picturesque town... At the renowned woodland rhododendron garden at [[Leonardslee]], Sussex, the gale... opened magnificent views by removing about a thousand trees which owner Robin Loder said he would never have had the courage to thin out himself.<ref>Angel, in ''The Garden: Journal of the Royal Horticulyural Society'', March–April 1988.</ref></blockquote> |
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A more positive aspect could be found among some British gardeners; as Heather Angel wrote in the [[Royal Horticultural Society]]'s ''Journal'': |
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Following the storm meteorologists at the [[University of Reading]] led by Professor [[Keith Browning]] developed the [[Sting jet]] concept. During reanalysis of the storm they identified a [[mesoscale meteorology|mesoscale]] flow where the most damaging winds were shown to be emanating from the evaporating tip of the hooked cloud head on the southern flank of the cyclone. This cloud, hooked like a scorpion's tail, gives the wind region its name the "Sting Jet".<ref>{{cite news|last=Browning|first=Keith|title=Damaging winds from European cyclones|url=http://royalsociety.org/summer-science/2003/european-cyclones/|accessdate=27 March 2013|newspaper=The Royal Society|year=2003|author2=Peter Clark|author3=Tim Hewson|author4=Robert Muir-Wood}}</ref><ref name="stingflyer" /> |
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<blockquote>In some places this natural disaster has resulted in splendid vistas- views long since forgotten by some and never before seen by a whole new generation. Because of gaps left by fallen trees, visitors to [[Arundel Castle]], the ancestral home of the Dukes of Norfolk, can now look out over the picturesque town... At the renowned woodland rhododendron garden at [[Leonardslee]], Sussex, the gale... opened magnificent views by removing about a thousand trees which owner Robin Loder said he would never have had the courage to thin out himself.<ref>Angel, in ''The Garden: Journal of the Royal Horticulyural Society'', March–April 1988.</ref></blockquote> |
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===Criticism of the Met Office=== |
===Criticism of the Met Office=== |
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The [[Met Office]] was severely criticised by most of the national press for failing to forecast the storm correctly.<ref name="Houghton" /> |
The [[Met Office]] was severely criticised by most of the national press for failing to forecast the storm correctly.<ref name="Houghton" /> |
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The Met Office conducted an internal inquiry, scrutinised by two independent assessors, and a number of recommendations were made. Chiefly, observational coverage of the atmosphere over the ocean to the south and west of the UK was improved by increasing the quality and quantity of observations from ships, aircraft, buoys and satellites. Continued refinements were made to the computer models used in forecasting, and changes were made in the training of forecasters. In addition, reforms in the way the |
The Met Office conducted an internal inquiry, scrutinised by two independent assessors, and a number of recommendations were made. Chiefly, observational coverage of the atmosphere over the ocean to the south and west of the UK was improved by increasing the quality and quantity of observations from ships, aircraft, buoys and satellites. Continued refinements were made to the computer models used in forecasting, and changes were made in the training of forecasters. In addition, reforms in the way the Met Office reports warnings of severe weather were implemented, leading to substantially more warnings being issued in the future. Further deployment of improved tracking devices and improvements in the computer model simulations were supported by the purchase of an additional [[Cray]] [[supercomputer]]. Warnings for the [[Burns' Day Storm]] just over two years later were accurate and on time, although the model forecast hinged on observations from two ships in the Atlantic near the developing storm the day before it reached the UK.<ref name="Heming" >{{cite journal|last=Heming|first=J.T.|title=The impact of surface and radiosonde observations from two Atlantic ships on a numerical weather prediction model forecast for the storm of 25 January 1990.|journal=The Meteorological Magazine|year=1990|volume=119|pages=249–259}}</ref> |
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[[File:Michael Fish 1987 storm forecast.jpg|thumb|275px|right|Michael Fish's 15 October 1987 forecast on the BBC]] |
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[[BBC]] [[meteorologist]] [[Michael Fish]] drew particular criticism for reporting several hours before the storm hit, seemingly flippantly: <blockquote>''Earlier on today, apparently, a woman rang the BBC and said she heard there was a hurricane on the way; well, if you're watching, don't worry, there isn't, but having said that, actually, the weather will become very windy, but most of the strong winds, incidentally, will be down over Spain and across into France.''<ref>[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uqs1YXfdtGE YouTube footage of Michael Fish]</ref></blockquote> |
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[[BBC]] [[meteorologist]] [[Michael Fish]] drew particular criticism for reporting several hours before the storm hit: <blockquote>Earlier on today, apparently, a woman rang the BBC and said she heard there was a hurricane on the way; well, if you're watching, don't worry, there isn't, but having said that, actually, the weather will become very windy, but most of the strong winds, incidentally, will be down over Spain and across into France.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnxjZ-aFkjs|title=BBC Michael Fish 15th October 1987 hurricane forecast full version!|via=www.youtube.com}}</ref></blockquote> |
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Fish has subsequently claimed that his comments about a hurricane had nothing to do with the UK; they referred to |
Fish has subsequently claimed that his comments about a hurricane had nothing to do with the UK; they referred to Florida, USA, and were linked to a news story immediately preceding the weather bulletin, but had been so widely repeated out of context that the British public remains convinced that he was referring to the approaching storm. According to Fish, the woman in question was actually a colleague's mother who was about to go on holiday in the Caribbean, and had called regarding [[Hurricane Floyd (1987)|Hurricane Floyd]] to see if it would be safe to travel.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/bbcweather/forecasters/michael_fish_1987storm.shtml |title=Michael Fish and the 1987 Storm |access-date=2007-02-20 |work=BBC Weather |publisher=bbc.co.uk |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20041001050426/http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/bbcweather/forecasters/michael_fish_1987storm.shtml |archive-date=1 October 2004}}</ref> Fish went on to warn viewers that it would be "very windy" across the south of England, but predicted that the storm would move further south along the [[English Channel]] and the British mainland would escape the worst effects. The remainder of his warning has frequently been left out when this forecast has been repeated on television, which only [[Selective abstraction|adds to the public's misconception]]{{cn|date=September 2023}} of that day's forecasting. His analysis has been defended by weather experts. In particular, the lack of a [[weather ship]] in the [[Southwest Approaches]], due to Met Office cutbacks,<ref>{{cite journal|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=nCLWnFozM6EC&q=weather+ship+network+book&pg=PA25|title=Romeo Would Have Spied the Storm|journal=New Scientist|date=1987-10-22|access-date=2011-01-18|page=22|volume=116|number=1583|publisher=Reed Business Information}}</ref> meant the only manner of tracking the storm was by using [[Weather satellite|satellite]] data, as [[weather buoy|automatic buoy]]s had not been deployed at the time. |
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Ironically, earlier forecasts as far back as the preceding weekend had correctly identified that gale-force winds would affect Southern England. However, later runs of the model had indicated a more southerly track for the low pressure system, incorrectly indicating that the strongest winds would be confined to Northern and Central France. The French meteorological office used a different computer weather model to the British, and the French model proved more accurate in predicting the severity of the storm in the Channel. |
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Fish went on to warn viewers in the UK to "batten down the hatches", saying it would be "very windy" across the south of England, but predicted that the storm would move further south along the [[English Channel]] and the British mainland would escape the worst effects. The remainder of his warning is frequently left out of re-runs, which only [[Selective abstraction|adds to the public's misconception]] of that day's forecasting. His analysis has been defended by weather experts. In particular, the lack of a [[weather ship]] in the Southwest Approaches, due to [[Met Office]] cutbacks,<ref>{{cite journal|url=http://books.google.com/books?id=nCLWnFozM6EC&pg=PA25&dq=weather+ship+network+book&hl=en&ei=dQE2TeWwMIaKlwenytCaCg&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=3&ved=0CDgQ6AEwAjgK#v=onepage&q=weather%20ship%20network%20book&f=false|title=Romeo Would Have Spied the Storm|journal=New Scientist|date=1987-10-22|accessdate=2011-01-18|page=22|volume=116|number=1583|publisher=IPC Magazines}}</ref> meant the only manner of tracking the storm was by using [[Weather satellite|satellite]] data, as [[weather buoy|automatic buoy]]s had not been deployed at the time. |
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The French meteorological service did correctly predict and warn for the storm and its intensity, but it might have been otherwise. Indeed, the [[ECMWF]] model forecast from 14 October 12 UTC failed to predict the strong winds and the storm position (although previous runs were closer to reality), and this could have led to inadequate warnings. This unusual inconsistency of ECMWF could have been a [[data assimilation]] issue, or came from poor data. In contrast, the French large scale model EMERAUDE made better predictions, while still underestimating the winds. It is recognised that without the experience of the forecasters, the exceptional aspects of the storm would have been missed.<ref name="JarraudCyoas1989">{{cite journal|last1=Jarraud|first1=M.|last2=Cyoas|first2=J.|last3=Deyts|first3=C.|title=Prediction of an Exceptional Storm over France and Southern England (15–16 October 1987)|journal=Weather and Forecasting|volume=4|issue=4|year=1989|pages=517–536|issn=0882-8156|doi=10.1175/1520-0434(1989)004<0517:POAESO>2.0.CO;2|bibcode=1989WtFor...4..517J|doi-access=free}}</ref> |
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Ironically, earlier forecasts as far back as the preceding weekend had correctly identified that gale force winds would affect Southern England. However, later runs of the model had indicated a more southerly track for the low pressure system, incorrectly indicating that the strongest winds would be confined to Northern and Central France. The French meteorological office used a different computer weather model to the British, and the French model proved more accurate in predicting the severity of the storm in the Channel. |
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In the wake of the storm the Met Office set up the [[National Severe Weather Warning Service]].<ref name="Kinver" /> |
In the wake of the storm, the Met Office set up the [[National Severe Weather Warning Service]].<ref name="Kinver" /> |
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It has been said<ref>[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yIQX9UhOhwU&t=15s Youtube video "Britain's Biggest Storm"]</ref> that as 15–16 October 1987 approached, shipping weather forecasts warned of storm movements in the North Atlantic, with the result that ships stayed away from North Atlantic storm tracks, depriving North Atlantic meteorology of a major necessary source of weather report data. |
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===New understandings=== |
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Following the storm, meteorologists at the [[University of Reading]] led by Professor [[Keith Browning]] developed the [[sting jet]] concept. During reanalysis of the storm they identified a [[mesoscale meteorology|mesoscale]] flow where the most damaging winds were shown to be emanating from the evaporating tip of the hooked cloud head on the southern flank of the cyclone. This cloud, hooked like a scorpion's tail, gives the wind region its name the "sting jet".<ref name="stingflyer" /><ref>{{cite news|last=Browning|first=Keith|title=Damaging winds from European cyclones|url=http://royalsociety.org/summer-science/2003/european-cyclones/|access-date=27 March 2013|newspaper=The Royal Society|year=2003|author2=Peter Clark|author3=Tim Hewson|author4=Robert Muir-Wood}}</ref> |
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===Climatological context=== |
===Climatological context=== |
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It is claimed this storm was the worst since the [[Great Storm of 1703]],<ref name="Kinver" /><ref>{{cite news|title=Factfile: The 1987 Great Storm|url=http://www.itv.com/news/anglia/2012-10-15/factfile-the-1987-great-storm/| |
It is sometimes claimed that this storm was the worst since the [[Great Storm of 1703]],<ref name="Kinver" /><ref>{{cite news|title=Factfile: The 1987 Great Storm|url=http://www.itv.com/news/anglia/2012-10-15/factfile-the-1987-great-storm/|access-date=8 December 2012|newspaper=Anglia – ITV News|date=15 October 2012}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|title=Factfile: The 1987 Great Storm|url=http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/in-depth/1987-great-storm/fact-file|publisher=Met Office|access-date=8 December 2012}}</ref> but this has been challenged as ignoring storms outside the south-east of England.<ref name="Vidal" /><ref name="UKMOBlog" /> Storms of this strength regularly form over the North Atlantic, where they typically track to the north of Scotland. Storms of such a strength have a [[return period]] of 30 to 40 years.<ref name="MOstudent" /> The unusual aspect of the storm was that it struck the densely populated southeast of England.<ref name="Vidal" /><ref name="UKMOBlog" /> That winds in the South East had return periods of 1 in 200 years does not mean the winds of this strength occur once every 200 years, but that the winds have a 0.5% probability of happening in a given year.{{ref|a|[Note 1]}} |
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Following this storm 1.3 million incidents of damage were reported, which is only exceeded by the [[Gale of January 1976]] where destruction covered a wider area of the |
Following this storm 1.3 million incidents of damage were reported, which is only exceeded by the [[Gale of January 1976]] where destruction covered a wider area of the UK, with 1.5 million incidents of damage reported.<ref name="2007 Report"/> The [[Burns' Day storm]] hit the United Kingdom in January 1990, less than three years later and with comparable intensity. The [[1968 Scotland storm|Great Storm of 1968]] (Hurricane Low Q) had crossed Great Britain between the Pennines and Perthshire with the highest-ever recorded peak wind speeds (134 mph). The 1968 storm, for which no warning was given, devastated agriculture and 5% of forestry in Scotland, toppled shipbuilding cranes on the Clyde, and left almost 2000 people homeless in the [[Central Belt]]. |
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==Wider impacts== |
==Wider impacts== |
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===Black Monday=== |
===Black Monday=== |
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Following the storm few dealers made it to their desks and [[London Stock Exchange|stock market]] trading was suspended twice. The disruption meant [[The City of London|the City]] was unable to respond to the late |
Following the storm, few dealers made it to their desks, and [[London Stock Exchange|stock market]] trading was suspended twice; the market closed early at 12:30. The disruption meant [[The City of London|the City]] was unable to respond to the late trading at the beginning of the [[Wall Street]] fall-out on Friday 16 October, when the [[Dow Jones Industrial Average]] recorded its greatest-ever one-day slide at the time, a fall of 108.36. City traders and investors spent the weekend, 17–18 October, repairing damaged gardens in between trying to guess market reaction and assessing the damage.<ref>{{cite news|last=Gribben|first=Roland|title=Black Monday taught salutary lessons all round|url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9616620/Black-Monday-taught-salutary-lessons-all-round.html|access-date=17 April 2013|newspaper=The Telegraph|date=18 October 2012}}</ref> 19 October, [[Black Monday (1987)|Black Monday]], was memorable as being the first business day of the London markets after the Great Storm. |
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===Cultural references=== |
===Cultural references=== |
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{{in popular culture|section|date=December 2020}} |
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*In literature the storm features in an important scene near the end of ''[[Possession (Byatt novel)|Possession: A Romance]]'', the [[Man Booker Prize]]-winning novel by [[A. S. Byatt]]. [[J. R. R. Tolkien]]'s ''[[The Notion Club Papers]]'' mentions a great storm occurring during on 12 June 1987 in England, The work was written in 1945. |
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* The storm features in an important scene near the end of ''[[Possession (Byatt novel)|Possession: A Romance]]'', the [[Booker Prize]]-winning novel by [[A. S. Byatt]]. |
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*The BBC drama ''[[Our Friends in the North]]'' features a character, Eddie Wells MP, dying of a heart attack as the storm hits Westminster. |
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* The novelist [[W. G. Sebald]] recalls the storm towards the end of ''[[The Rings of Saturn]]'', as he is visiting [[Ditchingham Hall]] in Norfolk, where the storm did great damage to estate trees. |
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*Michael Fish's controversial weather forecast featured in the London [[2012 Summer Olympics opening ceremony]],<ref name="Fish" /> playing on the perceived British love of talking about the weather. |
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* The BBC drama ''[[Our Friends in the North]]'' features a character, Eddie Wells MP, dying of a heart attack as the storm hits Westminster. |
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* The storm and its aftermath acts as the climax to [[Tim Lott]]'s 2002 novel ''Rumours of a Hurricane''.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.theguardian.com/books/2005/feb/26/featuresreviews.guardianreview37|title=Phil Tinline on severe weather in British literature|first=Phil|last=Tinline|newspaper=The Guardian |date=26 February 2005|via=www.theguardian.com}}</ref> |
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* [[Richard Poole (character)|Richard Poole]] repeatedly mentions the storm in the ''[[Death in Paradise (TV series)|Death in Paradise]]'' episode "[[List of Death in Paradise episodes#Series 2 (2013)|A Stormy Occurrence]]".<ref>[[Death in Paradise (TV series)|Death in Paradise]]. Season 2: Episode 7. Air date 19 February 2013.</ref> |
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* Michael Fish's controversial weather forecast featured in the London [[2012 Summer Olympics opening ceremony]],<ref name="Fish" /> playing on the perceived British love of talking about the weather. |
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* The BBC drama ''New Tricks'', [[List of New Tricks episodes|series 2, episode 8]] (aired 27 June 2005) is based on a murder that occurred just before the storm, which had gone unsolved because the storm had "messed up" the evidence. |
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* The narrator in the novel ''Max Gate'' by [[Damien Wilkins (writer)|Damien Wilkins]] is telling the story, set in 1928, from the vantage point of 1987, in the aftermath of the storm. |
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* The main character in the 1994 novel by Tim Binding, ''In the Kingdom of Air'', is a BBC meteorologist. The novel takes place during the Great Storm of 1987.<ref>{{cite book |last=Binding |first=Tim |date=1994 |title=In the Kingdom of Air |publisher=Norton |isbn=9780393036091 }}</ref> |
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* In a section of [[Zadie Smith|Zadie Smith's]] 2000 novel ''[[White Teeth]]'', two of the main characters' houses are destroyed by the storm. |
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*In the 2019 film ''[[Blinded by the Light (2019 film)|Blinded by the Light]]'', the protagonist listens to [[Bruce Springsteen]] for the first time during the Great Storm of 1987. Michael Fish's forecast is featured immediately before. |
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==See also== |
==See also== |
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* [[List of natural disasters in |
* [[List of natural disasters in the United Kingdom]] |
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* [[Night of the Big Wind]] (1839) |
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* [[Hurricane Charley (1986)]] |
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* [[Burns' Day Storm]] (1990) |
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* [[Glanrhyd Bridge collapse]] |
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* [[Hurricane Ophelia (2017)]] |
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* [[Storm Eunice]] |
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* [[Storm Lothar]] |
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==Notes== |
==Notes== |
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#{{note|a}}Common Misconceptions, Part 1 - Return Periods<ref>{{cite web|title=Engineering Misconceptions, Part 1 - Return Periods|url=http://engg.ronjie.com/2009/04/engineering-misconceptions-part-1.html|publisher=Ronjie.com Civil Engineering Blog| |
#{{note|a}}Common Misconceptions, Part 1 - Return Periods<ref>{{cite web|title=Engineering Misconceptions, Part 1 - Return Periods|url=http://engg.ronjie.com/2009/04/engineering-misconceptions-part-1.html|publisher=Ronjie.com Civil Engineering Blog|access-date=4 November 2013}}</ref> |
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==References== |
==References== |
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{{ |
{{reflist}} |
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==External links== |
==External links== |
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{{Commons category|Great Storm of 1987}} |
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*[http://www.meto.gov.uk/education/secondary/students/1987.html Met Office report] |
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*[https://web.archive.org/web/20051024140200/https://www.meto.gov.uk/education/secondary/students/1987.html Met Office report (via archive.org)] |
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*[http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/october/16/newsid_2533000/2533219.stm BBC news report, ''On This Day'', including video] |
*[http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/october/16/newsid_2533000/2533219.stm BBC news report, ''On This Day'', including video] |
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*[http://www.alertes-meteo.com/tempete/tempete_1987.htm Details of the damage in France] {{ |
*[http://www.alertes-meteo.com/tempete/tempete_1987.htm Details of the damage in France] {{in lang|fr}} |
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*[http://www.meteolafleche.com/Dossiers/2003/Tempetes/tempete1987.html Useful maps of the storm] {{ |
*[http://www.meteolafleche.com/Dossiers/2003/Tempetes/tempete1987.html Useful maps of the storm] {{in lang|fr}} |
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* |
*[http://www.schoolsworld.tv/node/2752 Teachers TV, Great Storm 1987] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140419003426/http://www.schoolsworld.tv/node/2752 |date=19 April 2014 }} |
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*[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yIQX9UhOhwU&t=15s Youtube video "Britain's Biggest Storm"] |
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{{European windstorms}} |
{{European windstorms}} |
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[[Category:Weather events in England]] |
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[[Category:European windstorms]] |
[[Category:European windstorms]] |
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[[Category:History of the English Channel]] |
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[[Category:1987 meteorology]] |
[[Category:1987 meteorology]] |
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[[Category:1987 in the United Kingdom]] |
[[Category:1987 disasters in the United Kingdom]] |
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[[Category:1987 natural disasters]] |
[[Category:1987 natural disasters]] |
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[[Category: |
[[Category:October 1987 events in the United Kingdom]] |
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[[Category:Power outages in the United Kingdom]] |
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[[Category:Weather events in England]] |
Latest revision as of 04:23, 28 November 2024
Meteorological history | |
---|---|
Formed | 15 October 1987 |
Dissipated | 16 October 1987 |
Extratropical cyclone | |
Highest winds | 86 mph (139 km/h)[1] |
Highest gusts | 134 mph (216 km/h)[1] |
Lowest pressure | 953 hPa (mbar); 28.14 inHg[2] |
Overall effects | |
Fatalities | 22[3] |
Damage | £2 billion (7.106 today), 23 billion francs (9.841 billion euro today)[citation needed] |
Areas affected | United Kingdom, France, Spain, Belgium, Norway |
Part of the 1987–1988 European windstorm season |
The great storm of 1987 was a violent extratropical cyclone that occurred on the night of 15–16 October, with hurricane-force winds causing casualties in the United Kingdom, France, and the Channel Islands as a severe depression in the Bay of Biscay moved northeast. Among the most damaged areas were Greater London, Kent, the East Anglian coast, the Home Counties, the west of Brittany, and the Cotentin Peninsula of Normandy, all of which weathered gusts typically with a return period of 1 in 200 years.[4][5]
Forests, parks, roads, and railways were strewn with fallen trees and schools were closed. The British National Grid suffered heavy damage, leaving thousands without power. At least 22 people were killed in England and France.[6][3] The highest measured gust of 135 miles per hour; 217 kilometres per hour (117 kn) was recorded at Pointe Du Roc, Granville, France and the highest gust in the UK of 120 mph; 190 km/h (100 kn) was recorded at Shoreham, West Sussex.[7] The storm has been termed a weather bomb due to its rapid development.[8]
That day's weather reports had failed to indicate a storm of such severity, an earlier, correct forecast having been negated by later projections. The apparent suggestion by the BBC's Michael Fish of a false alarm is celebrated as a classic gaffe, though he claims he was misquoted.[9] As a result of this storm, major improvements were later implemented in atmospheric observation, relevant computer models, and the training of forecasters.[10]
Development
[edit]On the Sunday before the storm struck, the farmers' forecast had predicted bad weather on the following Thursday or Friday, 15–16 October.[11] By midweek, however, guidance from weather prediction models was somewhat equivocal. Instead of stormy weather over a considerable part of the UK, the models suggested that severe weather would reach no farther north than the English Channel and coastal parts of southern England.[11]
During the afternoon of 15 October, winds were very light over most parts of the UK. The pressure gradient was slack. A depression was drifting slowly northwards over the North Sea off eastern Scotland. A trough lay over England, Wales, and Ireland. Over the Bay of Biscay, a depression was developing.[12]
First warnings
[edit]This section needs additional citations for verification. (October 2019) |
The first gale warnings for sea areas in the English Channel were issued at 0630 UTC on 15 October and were followed, four hours later, by warnings of severe gales.[7] At 1200 UTC on 15 October, the depression, which originated in the Bay of Biscay, was centred near 46° N, 9° W and its depth was 970 hPa (29 inHg). By 1800 UTC, it had moved north-east to about 47° N, 6° W, and deepened to 964 hPa (28.5 inHg).
At 2235 UTC, winds of Force 10 were forecast. By midnight, the depression was over the western English Channel, and its central pressure was 953 hPa (28.1 inHg). At 0140 on 16 October, warnings of Force 11 were issued. The depression now moved rapidly north-east, filling a little as it did, reaching the Humber Estuary at about 0530 UTC, by which time its central pressure was 959 hectopascals (28.3 inHg). Dramatic increases in temperature were associated with the passage of the storm's warm front.
In some sea areas, warnings of severe weather were both timely and adequate, although forecasts for land areas left much to be desired. During the evening of 15 October, radio and TV forecasts mentioned strong winds, but indicated that heavy rain would be the main feature, rather than wind. By the time most people went to bed, exceptionally strong winds had not been mentioned in national radio and TV weather broadcasts.
Warnings of severe weather had been issued, however, to various agencies and emergency authorities, including the London Fire Brigade. Perhaps the most important warning was issued by the Met Office to the Ministry of Defence (MoD) at 0135 UTC, 16 October. It warned that the anticipated consequences of the storm were such that civil authorities might need to call on assistance from the military.
Winds
[edit]A highest gust of 220 km/h; 137 mph (119 kn) is estimated from satellite data at Quimper, Brittany, with the highest measured gust at 217 km/h; 135 mph (117 kn) at Pointe du Roc, Granville, Normandy.[3]
In south-east England, where the greatest damage occurred, gusts of 130 km/h; 81 mph (70 kn) or more were recorded continually for three or four consecutive hours. During this time, the wind veered from southerly to south-westerly. To the north-west of this region, there were two maxima in gust speeds, separated by a period of lower wind speeds. During the first period, the wind direction was southerly. During the latter, it was south-westerly. Damage patterns in south-east England suggested that tornadoes accompanied the storm.
In the UK, winds at Shoreham-by-Sea, Sussex reached 190 km/h; 120 mph (100 kn) before the anemometer failed.[3][13][14] Many anemometers were reliant on mains power, and ceased recording as the south east of the United Kingdom was blacked-out by power cuts, thus losing much valuable data.[12] Winds with an estimated 200-year return period hit the counties of Kent, Sussex, Berkshire, Hampshire, and along the coastal strip of Essex, Suffolk, and south-eastern Norfolk.[12] North of a line from Portland Bill, Dorset to Cromer, Norfolk the return period of the respective gusts were under 10 years.[12]
Sustained winds speeds greater than 121 km/h (75 mph) were recorded for over an hour in southern Britain.[15] According to the Beaufort scale of wind intensities, this storm had winds of hurricane force 12 (117 km/h [73 mph] or greater); as the term hurricane refers to tropical cyclones originating in the North Atlantic or North Pacific, the descriptor "great storm" has tended to be reserved for those storms in recent years reaching this velocity. Hurricanes have a very different wind profile and distribution from storms, and significantly higher precipitation levels.
Impact
[edit]United Kingdom
[edit]The storm made landfall in Cornwall, and tracked north-east towards Devon and then over the Midlands, going out to sea via The Wash. The strongest gusts, of up to 100 knots (190 km/h; 120 mph), were recorded along the south-eastern edge of the storm, hitting mainly Berkshire, Hampshire, Sussex, Essex, and Kent. The Royal Sovereign lighthouse 6 miles (9.7 km) off Eastbourne recorded the highest hourly-mean wind speed in the UK on its instruments at 75 kn (139 km/h; 86 mph).[7] The counties of Dorset[16] and Surrey were also heavily affected.[17]
The storm caused substantial damage over much of England, felling an estimated 15 million trees[18] (including six of the seven eponymous oaks in Sevenoaks,[19] historic specimens in Kew Gardens, Wakehurst Place, Nymans Garden, Hyde Park in London, and Scotney Castle[20] and most of the trees making up Chanctonbury Ring). At Bedgebury National Pinetum, Kent almost a quarter of the trees were brought down.[21][22] There have been many claims that the damage to forestry was made worse by broadleaf trees still being in leaf at the time of the storm, though this was not borne out by an analysis by the Forestry Commission.[23]
Fallen trees blocked roads and railways, and left widespread structural damage primarily to windows and roofs. More than 5,000 trees fell on railway tracks in the Southern Region, and the Midland and West Coast main lines were blocked.[24] Beach huts were blown onto tracks at Leigh-on-Sea.[24] The roofs and canopies at Limehouse and Benfleet stations were destroyed, and £300,000 of damage was caused to construction work on a new train ferry pier at Dover Western Docks station.[24]
Several hundred thousand people were left without power, not fully restored until more than two weeks later. Local electric utility officials later said they lost more wires in the storm than in the preceding decade. At sea, as well as many small boats being wrecked, a Sealink cross-channel ferry, the MV Hengist, was driven ashore at Folkestone and the bulk carrier MV Sumnea capsized at Dover, Kent.[25] The Radio Caroline ship MV Ross Revenge weathered the storm in the north sea, being one of the few ships to be in the North Sea during the storm; it being a radio ship, it also provided radio broadcasts to thousands while most stations were offline.[26]
The National Grid sustained heavy damage during the event, as crashing cables short-circuited, which in some cases overheated the main system. Its headquarters faced the choice of keeping the grid online to help London as the storm approached but risk an incremental system breakdown, failure and burnout, or to shut down most of South East England including London and avert that risk. The headquarters made the decision, the first one like it since before World War II: to shut down the South East power systems to maintain the network as soon as signs of overheating began.[27]
At Clayton, West Sussex, one of the village's recently restored windmills, Jill, sustained severe damage to its mechanisms and caught fire during the storm. The mill's brakes had been applied prior to the storm's arrival, but the high winds were able to rotate the sails and overcome the brakes, creating friction which set the mill's antique timbers on fire. Members of the Jack and Jill Windmills Society were able to put the fire out, carrying water up the hill to douse the flames.[28]
In London, many of the trees lining streets, particularly plane trees, were blown down overnight, blocking roads and crushing parked cars. Building construction scaffolding and billboards collapsed in many places, and many buildings were damaged. The following morning, the BBC's Current Affairs Production Centre at the former Lime Grove Studios in Shepherd's Bush, was unable to function due to a power failure – ITV's TV-am and BBC1's Breakfast Time programmes were broadcast from different emergency facilities in emergency formats. TV-am broadcast from Thames Television's Euston Road studios, while BBC newsreader Nicholas Witchell had to broadcast from the BBC1 continuity studio at BBC Television Centre, with the wall decorations used for Children's BBC hastily taken down. Much of the public transport in the capital was not functioning, and people were advised against trying to go to work. TV-am host Anne Diamond did go back to the regular TV-am studio with reporter Kay Burley, whilst Richard Keys remained in the Thames Television studio in case the power supply situation became even worse, and indeed, power did go back down at around 8:15 am.
France
[edit]The départements of Finistère, Morbihan, Côtes-d'Armor, and Ille-et-Vilaine in Brittany, and the Cotentin Peninsula (Manche and part of Calvados) in Normandy were the areas in France most affected by the storm, which followed a line from Morbihan and Rennes to Deauville.[29] 1.79 million homes were left without electricity supply and water, and a quarter of Brittany's forest was destroyed. The total damage was estimated at ₣23 billion.
Météo France announced "une petite tempête en provenance des Açores" (a little storm coming in from the Azores), which reached Brittany's coast at about 18:00, later than expected. This depression caused little damage, with only 50 to 60 km/h (31 to 37 mph; 27 to 32 kn) winds. A much deeper depression hit Ushant on the extreme western tip of Brittany at midnight. It was measured at 948 mbar (28.0 inHg) at the Brest-Guipavas weather station, the lowest reading in its records dating back to 1945.[29]
Weather stations on the coast at pointe du Raz, pointe Saint-Mathieu and Penmarch gave no readings, as they were damaged by the high winds. The wind speed measured at Brest was 148 km/h (92 mph; 80 kn). The centre of the storm crossed Brittany from Penmarch to Saint-Brieuc at 110 km/h (68 mph; 59 kn), with gusts of wind up to 187 km/h (116 mph; 101 kn) at Quimper, 200 km/h (120 mph; 110 kn) at Ushant, and 220 km/h (140 mph; 120 kn) at la pointe de Penmarch and Granville. Waves were measured at 16 m (52 ft) off Ushant and Belle Île.[29]
Similar strength storms in France since 1960:
- Tempête Vivian in 1990 (generally milder)
- Cyclones Lothar and Martin in December 1999, which claimed 140 lives, equally severe in Germany, more southern neighbouring countries also saw multiple deaths.
- Cyclone Klaus which struck worse southern France and northern Spain in 2009 and claimed 26 lives.
The church at Concarneau was damaged but never rebuilt, and was finally demolished a few years later.
The MS Herald of Free Enterprise was caught in the storm off Cape Finisterre as it was making its way for scrapping in Taiwan. The ship was cast adrift after its tow rope parted, finally resuming its journey on 19 October 1987.[30]
Aftermath
[edit]The storm cost the insurance industry £2 billion, making it the second most expensive UK weather event on record to insurers after the Burns' Day Storm of 1990.[31] Peak wind velocities were in the early hours of the morning, which may have helped reduce the death toll. The storm hit the Isle of Wight at 02:00. Shanklin Pier, a central landmark in the seaside resort of Shanklin on the south-east coast of the island, was broken into three pieces as a result of mountainous waves in Sandown Bay that struck the structure. Plans to rebuild the pier were soon abandoned as the company supervising the pier's refurbishment prior to the storm went bankrupt, and the rest of the pier was demolished by contractors shortly afterwards. A monument now stands in front of what used to be the pier entrance.
A great deal of effort and money was put into the post-storm clean-up of forests and wooded areas. The writer Oliver Rackham and the charity Common Ground were active in trying to prevent unnecessary destruction of trees which, although fallen, were still living.[32][33] Some landowners, such as the National Trust, did not attempt complete clearing and replanting, realising that there was a unique opportunity to study the patterns of natural regeneration after such an event.[34]
A number of wild boar may have escaped from captivity during the storm, after enclosures were damaged by falling trees. These boar have since bred and established populations in woods across southern England.[35]
A more positive aspect could be found among some British gardeners; as Heather Angel wrote in the Royal Horticultural Society's Journal:
In some places this natural disaster has resulted in splendid vistas- views long since forgotten by some and never before seen by a whole new generation. Because of gaps left by fallen trees, visitors to Arundel Castle, the ancestral home of the Dukes of Norfolk, can now look out over the picturesque town... At the renowned woodland rhododendron garden at Leonardslee, Sussex, the gale... opened magnificent views by removing about a thousand trees which owner Robin Loder said he would never have had the courage to thin out himself.[36]
Criticism of the Met Office
[edit]The Met Office was severely criticised by most of the national press for failing to forecast the storm correctly.[11]
The Met Office conducted an internal inquiry, scrutinised by two independent assessors, and a number of recommendations were made. Chiefly, observational coverage of the atmosphere over the ocean to the south and west of the UK was improved by increasing the quality and quantity of observations from ships, aircraft, buoys and satellites. Continued refinements were made to the computer models used in forecasting, and changes were made in the training of forecasters. In addition, reforms in the way the Met Office reports warnings of severe weather were implemented, leading to substantially more warnings being issued in the future. Further deployment of improved tracking devices and improvements in the computer model simulations were supported by the purchase of an additional Cray supercomputer. Warnings for the Burns' Day Storm just over two years later were accurate and on time, although the model forecast hinged on observations from two ships in the Atlantic near the developing storm the day before it reached the UK.[37]
BBC meteorologist Michael Fish drew particular criticism for reporting several hours before the storm hit:
Earlier on today, apparently, a woman rang the BBC and said she heard there was a hurricane on the way; well, if you're watching, don't worry, there isn't, but having said that, actually, the weather will become very windy, but most of the strong winds, incidentally, will be down over Spain and across into France.[38]
Fish has subsequently claimed that his comments about a hurricane had nothing to do with the UK; they referred to Florida, USA, and were linked to a news story immediately preceding the weather bulletin, but had been so widely repeated out of context that the British public remains convinced that he was referring to the approaching storm. According to Fish, the woman in question was actually a colleague's mother who was about to go on holiday in the Caribbean, and had called regarding Hurricane Floyd to see if it would be safe to travel.[39] Fish went on to warn viewers that it would be "very windy" across the south of England, but predicted that the storm would move further south along the English Channel and the British mainland would escape the worst effects. The remainder of his warning has frequently been left out when this forecast has been repeated on television, which only adds to the public's misconception[citation needed] of that day's forecasting. His analysis has been defended by weather experts. In particular, the lack of a weather ship in the Southwest Approaches, due to Met Office cutbacks,[40] meant the only manner of tracking the storm was by using satellite data, as automatic buoys had not been deployed at the time.
Ironically, earlier forecasts as far back as the preceding weekend had correctly identified that gale-force winds would affect Southern England. However, later runs of the model had indicated a more southerly track for the low pressure system, incorrectly indicating that the strongest winds would be confined to Northern and Central France. The French meteorological office used a different computer weather model to the British, and the French model proved more accurate in predicting the severity of the storm in the Channel.
The French meteorological service did correctly predict and warn for the storm and its intensity, but it might have been otherwise. Indeed, the ECMWF model forecast from 14 October 12 UTC failed to predict the strong winds and the storm position (although previous runs were closer to reality), and this could have led to inadequate warnings. This unusual inconsistency of ECMWF could have been a data assimilation issue, or came from poor data. In contrast, the French large scale model EMERAUDE made better predictions, while still underestimating the winds. It is recognised that without the experience of the forecasters, the exceptional aspects of the storm would have been missed.[41]
In the wake of the storm, the Met Office set up the National Severe Weather Warning Service.[10]
It has been said[42] that as 15–16 October 1987 approached, shipping weather forecasts warned of storm movements in the North Atlantic, with the result that ships stayed away from North Atlantic storm tracks, depriving North Atlantic meteorology of a major necessary source of weather report data.
New understandings
[edit]Following the storm, meteorologists at the University of Reading led by Professor Keith Browning developed the sting jet concept. During reanalysis of the storm they identified a mesoscale flow where the most damaging winds were shown to be emanating from the evaporating tip of the hooked cloud head on the southern flank of the cyclone. This cloud, hooked like a scorpion's tail, gives the wind region its name the "sting jet".[13][43]
Climatological context
[edit]It is sometimes claimed that this storm was the worst since the Great Storm of 1703,[10][44][45] but this has been challenged as ignoring storms outside the south-east of England.[4][5] Storms of this strength regularly form over the North Atlantic, where they typically track to the north of Scotland. Storms of such a strength have a return period of 30 to 40 years.[3] The unusual aspect of the storm was that it struck the densely populated southeast of England.[4][5] That winds in the South East had return periods of 1 in 200 years does not mean the winds of this strength occur once every 200 years, but that the winds have a 0.5% probability of happening in a given year.[Note 1]
Following this storm 1.3 million incidents of damage were reported, which is only exceeded by the Gale of January 1976 where destruction covered a wider area of the UK, with 1.5 million incidents of damage reported.[2] The Burns' Day storm hit the United Kingdom in January 1990, less than three years later and with comparable intensity. The Great Storm of 1968 (Hurricane Low Q) had crossed Great Britain between the Pennines and Perthshire with the highest-ever recorded peak wind speeds (134 mph). The 1968 storm, for which no warning was given, devastated agriculture and 5% of forestry in Scotland, toppled shipbuilding cranes on the Clyde, and left almost 2000 people homeless in the Central Belt.
Wider impacts
[edit]Black Monday
[edit]Following the storm, few dealers made it to their desks, and stock market trading was suspended twice; the market closed early at 12:30. The disruption meant the City was unable to respond to the late trading at the beginning of the Wall Street fall-out on Friday 16 October, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded its greatest-ever one-day slide at the time, a fall of 108.36. City traders and investors spent the weekend, 17–18 October, repairing damaged gardens in between trying to guess market reaction and assessing the damage.[46] 19 October, Black Monday, was memorable as being the first business day of the London markets after the Great Storm.
Cultural references
[edit]- The storm features in an important scene near the end of Possession: A Romance, the Booker Prize-winning novel by A. S. Byatt.
- The novelist W. G. Sebald recalls the storm towards the end of The Rings of Saturn, as he is visiting Ditchingham Hall in Norfolk, where the storm did great damage to estate trees.
- The BBC drama Our Friends in the North features a character, Eddie Wells MP, dying of a heart attack as the storm hits Westminster.
- The storm and its aftermath acts as the climax to Tim Lott's 2002 novel Rumours of a Hurricane.[47]
- Richard Poole repeatedly mentions the storm in the Death in Paradise episode "A Stormy Occurrence".[48]
- Michael Fish's controversial weather forecast featured in the London 2012 Summer Olympics opening ceremony,[9] playing on the perceived British love of talking about the weather.
- The BBC drama New Tricks, series 2, episode 8 (aired 27 June 2005) is based on a murder that occurred just before the storm, which had gone unsolved because the storm had "messed up" the evidence.
- The narrator in the novel Max Gate by Damien Wilkins is telling the story, set in 1928, from the vantage point of 1987, in the aftermath of the storm.
- The main character in the 1994 novel by Tim Binding, In the Kingdom of Air, is a BBC meteorologist. The novel takes place during the Great Storm of 1987.[49]
- In a section of Zadie Smith's 2000 novel White Teeth, two of the main characters' houses are destroyed by the storm.
- In the 2019 film Blinded by the Light, the protagonist listens to Bruce Springsteen for the first time during the Great Storm of 1987. Michael Fish's forecast is featured immediately before.
See also
[edit]- List of natural disasters in the United Kingdom
- Night of the Big Wind (1839)
- Hurricane Charley (1986)
- Burns' Day Storm (1990)
- Glanrhyd Bridge collapse
- Hurricane Ophelia (2017)
- Storm Eunice
- Storm Lothar
Notes
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ a b David Braine (28 October 2014). "The 1987 Great Storm". BBC Cornwall. Retrieved 20 June 2018.
- ^ a b United Kingdom Met Office (2007). "The Great Storm of 1987" (PDF). Risk Management Solutions. Retrieved 2 August 2009.
- ^ a b c d e "The Great Storm of 1987". Wayback Machine: Met Office. Archived from the original on 7 September 2008. Retrieved 6 January 2013.
- ^ a b c Vidal, John (16 October 2012). "Sting jet technology means no more hurricane mishaps for Michael Fish". The Guardian. Retrieved 8 December 2012.
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The 'great storm' of 1987, which cost the industry £2bn, was the second most expensive.
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- ^ Oliver Rackham, Trees & Woodland in the British Landscape p. 202–3 (Dent, 1990)
- ^ see e.g. [1]
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- ^ Death in Paradise. Season 2: Episode 7. Air date 19 February 2013.
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- ^ "Engineering Misconceptions, Part 1 - Return Periods". Ronjie.com Civil Engineering Blog. Retrieved 4 November 2013.