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{{short description|Theory of international relations}}
{{Cleanup-rewrite|date=September 2009}}
{{International relations theory sidebar|Hegemonic stability theory}}
'''Hegemonic stability theory''' ('''HST''') is a theory of [[international relations]]. Rooted in research from the fields of [[political science]], [[economics]], and [[history]], HST indicates that the international system is more likely to remain stable when a single [[nation-state]] is the dominant world power, or [[hegemon]].<ref>Joshua S. Goldstein. ''International Relations''. New York: Pearson-Longman, 2005. 107.</ref> Thus, the fall of an existing hegemon or the state of no hegemon diminishes the stability of the international system. When a hegemon exercises leadership, either through diplomacy, coercion, or persuasion, it is actually deploying its "preponderance of power." This is called [[hegemony]], which refers to a state's ability to "single-handedly dominate the rules and arrangements ...[of] international political and economic relations."<ref>Joshua S. Goldstein. ''International Relations''. New York: Pearson-Longman, 2005. 83.</ref>
'''Hegemonic stability theory''' ('''HST''') is a theory of [[international relations]], rooted in research from the fields of [[political science]], [[economics]], and [[history]]. HST indicates that the international system is more likely to remain stable when a single [[nation-state|state]] is the dominant world power, or [[hegemon]].<ref>Joshua S. Goldstein. ''International Relations''. New York: Pearson-Longman, 2005. 83, 107.</ref> Thus, the end of hegemony diminishes the stability of the international system. As evidence for the stability of hegemony, proponents of HST frequently point to the [[Pax Britannica]] and [[Pax Americana]], as well as the instability prior to [[World War I]] (when British hegemony was in decline) and the instability of the [[interwar period]] (when the American hegemon reduced its presence from world politics).<ref name=":9">{{Cite book|last=Cohen|first=Benjamin J.|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=H79WVDwMzCEC|title=International Political Economy: An Intellectual History|date=2008|publisher=Princeton University Press|isbn=978-0-691-13569-4|pages=77|language=en}}</ref><ref name=":12">{{Cite book|last=Oatley|first=Thomas|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=4GJoDwAAQBAJ|title=International Political Economy: Sixth Edition|date=2019|publisher=Routledge|isbn=978-1-351-03464-7|pages=60–61|language=en}}</ref>


The key mechanisms in hegemonic stability theory revolve around [[Public good (economics)|public goods]] provision: to [[Tragedy of the commons|resolve collective action problems]] regarding public goods, a powerful actor who is willing and able to shoulder a disproportionate share of public goods provision is needed.<ref name=":0">{{Cite book|last=Norrlöf|first=Carla|url=https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/americas-global-advantage/29F591B11AD3CCFDA25F7ED7D9191B55|title=America's Global Advantage: US Hegemony and International Cooperation|date=2010|publisher=Cambridge University Press|isbn=978-0-521-76543-5|location=Cambridge|doi=10.1017/cbo9780511676406}}</ref> Hegemonic stability may entail [[Positive feedback|self-reinforcing]] cooperation, as it is in the interest of the hegemon to provide public goods and it is in interest of other states to maintain an international order from which they derive public goods.<ref name=":0" /><ref name="Ikenberry">{{cite journal|last=Ikenberry|first=G. John|date=Winter 1998–1999|title=Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Persistence of American Postwar Order|journal=International Security|volume=23|issue=3|pages=43–78|doi=10.1162/isec.23.3.43|jstor=2539338|s2cid=57566810}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Norrlof|first1=Carla|last2=Wohlforth|first2=William C.|date=2019|title=Raison de l'Hégémonie (The Hegemon's Interest): Theory of the Costs and Benefits of Hegemony|url=https://doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2019.1604982|journal=Security Studies|volume=28|issue=3|pages=422–450|doi=10.1080/09636412.2019.1604982|s2cid=197802117|issn=0963-6412}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|last=Wohlforth|first=William C.|date=1999|title=The Stability of a Unipolar World|url=https://www.jstor.org/stable/2539346|journal=International Security|volume=24|issue=1|pages=5–41|doi=10.1162/016228899560031|jstor=2539346|s2cid=57568539|issn=0162-2889}}</ref>
Research on hegemony can be divided into two schools of thought: the [[Political realism|realist school]] and the [[Level_of_analysis|Systemic_level]]. Each school can be further sub-divided. Two dominant theories have emerged from each school. What [[Robert Keohane]] first called the "theory of hegemonic stability," <ref>Robert Gilpin. '' The Political Economy of International Relations''. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1987. 86.</ref> joins [[A. F. K. Organski]]'s [[Power Transition Theory]] as the two dominant approaches to the realist school of thought. [[Long Cycle Theory]], espoused by [[George Modelski]], and [[World Systems Theory]], espoused by [[Immanuel Wallerstein]], have emerged as the two dominant approaches to the systemic school of thought.<ref>Terry Boswell and Mike Sweat. "Hegemony, Long Waves, and Major Wars: A Time Series Analysis of Systemic Dynamics, 1496-1967," ''International Studies Quarterly'' (1991) 35, 124.</ref>


== Early development ==
[[Charles P. Kindleberger]] is one of the scholars most closely associated with HST, and is even regarded by some as the father of HST.<ref>Helen Milner. "International Political Economy: Beyond Hegemonic Stability," ''Foreign Policy'', (1998)</ref> Kindleberger argued, in his 1973 book ''The World in Depression: 1929-1939'', that the economic chaos between [[World War I]] and [[World War II]] that led to the [[Great Depression]], can be blamed in part on the lack of a world leader with a dominant economy. The theory is about more than economics though: the central idea behind HST is that the stability of the global system, in terms of politics, [[international law]], and so on, relies on the hegemon to develop and enforce the rules of the system.<ref>Vincent
Charles Kindleberger is one of the scholars most closely associated with HST; commentators such as [[Benjamin Cohen (political economist) | Benjamin Cohen]] regard him as the theory's founder and most influential proponent.<ref name=":923">{{Cite book|last=Cohen|first=Benjamin J.|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=H79WVDwMzCEC|title=International Political Economy: An Intellectual History|date=2008|publisher=Princeton University Press|isbn=978-0-691-13569-4|pages=68|language=en | quote = HST got its name from Keohane, who first coined the phrase in a paper published in 1980. [...] The credit for originating HST actually goes to three other key members of IPE's pioneeer generation: above all to the economist Kindleberger, together with political scientists Gilpin and Krasner. [...] Pride of place here goes to Kindleberger.}}</ref><ref>Helen Milner. "International Political Economy: Beyond Hegemonic Stability," ''Foreign Policy'', (1998)</ref> In his 1973 book ''The World in Depression: 1929-1939'', Kindleberger argued that the economic chaos between [[World War I]] and [[World War II]] that led to the [[Great Depression]] was partly attributable to the lack of a world [[leader]] with a dominant economy. Kindleberger's reasoning touched upon more than economics, however: the central idea behind HST suggests that the stability of the global system, in terms of politics, [[international law]], and so on, relies on the hegemon to develop and enforce the rules of that system. Other key figures in the development of hegemonic stability theory include [[Robert Gilpin]] and [[Stephen Krasner]].<ref name=":9232">{{Cite book|last=Cohen|first=Benjamin J.|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=H79WVDwMzCEC|title=International Political Economy: An Intellectual History|date=2008|publisher=Princeton University Press|isbn=978-0-691-13569-4|pages=66–68|language=en}}</ref>
Ferraro. "The Theory of Hegemonic Stability." http://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/pol116/hegemony.htm</ref>


In his major work, Gilpin theorizes world history as imperial cycles until late modern times and the succession of hegemonies in late modern times when first Britain and later the United States stabilized the international system.<ref>Gilpin, Robert, (1981). ''War and Change in World Politics'', Cambridge University Press, p 145.</ref> Gilpin opposes balancing and the [[Balance of power (international relations) | balance-of-power theory]]. He contends that the system naturally goes toward equilibrium. From global war or "hegemonic war" emerges a new hegemon who creates and keeps the new [[world order]] with its own set of preferences. This is partly accomplished by providing public goods. In the case of the hegemony of the United States after 1945, there took place attempts at initialising a stable currency by means of the International Monetary Fund, the [[Bretton Woods system]], establishment of the [[World Bank]], security alliances (such as [[NATO]]), and democratisation.
In addition to Kindleberger, key figures in the development of hegemonic stability theory include [[George Modelski|Modelski]], [[Robert Gilpin]], [[Robert Keohane]], [[Stephen Krasner]], and others.<ref>Michael C. Webb and [[Stephen Krasner|Stephen D. Krasner]]. "Hegemonic Stability Theory: An Empirical Assessment", ''Review of International Studies'' (1989) ''15'', 183–98</ref><ref>[[Barry Eichengreen]], [http://repositories.cdlib.org/iber/cider/C96-080 "Hegemonic Stability Theory and Economic Analysis: Reflections on Financial Instability and the Need for an International Lender of Last Resort"] (December 9, 1996). ''Center for International and Development Economics Research''. Paper C96-080.</ref>


Gilpin argues further that in the global system, the more decisive a victory is after the "hegemonic war", the more stable the new system will be. He agrees with [[Paul Kennedy]]'s view of "imperialistic overstretch" as one of the reasons that hegemons fall. Gilpin adds that all hegemons inevitably fall because at a certain stage expansion exceeds benefits, distribution of power in the system shifts and other states rise and challenge the hegemon. Eventually, a dissatisfied great power that approaches the power of the current hegemon will cause a new global war and the cycle repeats.<ref>{{cite journal
== Hegemonic rise ==
|title = The Theory of Hegemonic War
|last = Gilpin
|first = Robert
|journal = [[The Journal of Interdisciplinary History]]
|issn = 1530-9169
|volume = 18
|issue = 4
|year = 1988
|pages = 591–613
|doi = 10.2307/204816
|jstor = 204816
}}</ref>


[[Robert Keohane]] coined the term "Hegemonic stability theory" in a 1980 article.<ref name=":9232"/> Keohane's 1984 book ''[[After Hegemony]]'' used insights from the [[new institutional economics]] to argue that the international system could remain stable in the absence of a hegemon, thus questioning hegemonic stability theory.<ref name=":02">{{Cite journal|last= Keohane|first= Robert O.|date= 2020|title= Understanding Multilateral Institutions in Easy and Hard Times|journal= Annual Review of Political Science|volume= 23|issue= 1|pages= 1–18|doi= 10.1146/annurev-polisci-050918-042625 |issn= 1094-2939|doi-access= free}}</ref> [[John Ruggie]]'s work on [[embedded liberalism]] also challenged hegemonic stability theory. He argued that the post-[[WWII]] international order was not just held together by material power but through "legitimate social purpose" whereby governments created support for the international order through social policies that alleviated the adverse effects of globalization.<ref>{{Cite journal|last= Ruggie|first= John Gerard|date= 1982|title= International Regimes, Transactions, and Change: Embedded Liberalism in the Postwar Economic Order|journal= International Organization|volume= 36 |issue= 2 |pages= 379–415|doi= 10.1017/S0020818300018993|jstor= 2706527|s2cid= 36120313 |issn= 0020-8183|doi-access= free}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|last1= Mansfield|first1= Edward D.|last2= Rudra |first2= Nita|date=2021|title= Embedded Liberalism in the Digital Era|journal= International Organization|language=en|volume=75|issue=2|pages=558–585|doi= 10.1017/S0020818320000569|ssrn= 3719975 |issn= 0020-8183|doi-access= free}}</ref> [[John Ikenberry]] argues that hegemony is not a precondition for international stability, pointing to [[path dependence]] and [[Historical institutionalism |"stickiness" of institutions]].<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Ikenberry|first=G. John |date= 1998|title=Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Persistence of American Postwar Order |url= https://www.jstor.org/stable/2539338|journal=International Security|volume= 23|issue= 3 |pages= 43–78|doi= 10.2307/2539338|jstor= 2539338|issn= 0162-2889}}</ref><ref name=":2">{{Cite book |last=Ikenberry|first=G. John|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=86a3mz3W7DwC&q=after+victory+ikenberry |title= After Victory: Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Rebuilding of Order After Major Wars|date=2001|publisher=Princeton University Press|isbn= 978-0-691-05091-1|language=en}}</ref>
In order for a nation-state to rise to the level of hegemon, there are some attributes it must or is more advantageous to have.


== Hegemonic attributes ==
First of all, it must have political strength, military force, and superior national power that is necessary for its ability to forge new international laws and organizations. In terms of military force, a standing defensive army is not enough. A superior navy, or air force is. This explains why many hegemons have been geographically situated on peninsulas or islands. Peninsularity and insularity provide added security, and, where naval power is necessary, the ability to project military forces.


In order for a nation-state to rise to the level of hegemon, such a state must combine all or most of the following attributes:{{According to whom|date=June 2023}}<ref>{{cite web|last1=Covarubbias|first1=Jack|title=The United States - Reluctant Sheriff or Potential Hegemon?|url=http://www.unc.edu/depts/diplomat/archives_roll/2003_04-06/covarrubias_us/covarrubias_us.html|website=American Diplomacy|access-date=7 April 2015}}</ref><ref>[[Christopher Layne|Layne, Christopher]], (2006). ''The Peace of Illusions: American Grand Strategy from 1940 to the Present'', (Ithaka & London: Cornell University Press), p 4.</ref>
In some cases, hegemons have not been insular or peninsular. The United States of America, for instance, has become a virtual island. It has two massive seaboards, and its neighbors are strong allies, and relatively reliable. Also, the modern invention of nuclear weapons, and the presence of a superior air force provide highly reliable security for the country, setting it apart from the rest of the world.


* Superior military force is necessary for the ability to forge new international laws and organizations.
Secondly, a hegemon must have a large and growing economy. Usually, unrivaled supremacy in at least one leading economic or technological sector is necessary.
* Insularity provides added security and the potential to project military forces, though in some cases hegemons have not been insular or peninsular. The United States of America, for instance, has become a virtual island. It has two massive seaboards, and its neighbors are long-standing allies, setting it apart from the rest of great powers. Nuclear weapons and superior air force add to its national security.

* A large and growing economy. Usually, unrivaled supremacy in at least one leading economic or technological sector is necessary. Military and economic powers compose the capability to enforce the rules of the system.
Thirdly, a hegemon must have will to lead, and the will to establish a hegemonic regime, as well as the capability to lead and enforce the rules of the system. After World War I, Great Britain possessed the will to lead, but lacked the necessary abilities to do so. Without the ability to force stability on the international system, Great Britain was able to do little to prevent the onset of the Great Depression or World War II.
* The will to lead and to establish a hegemonic regime by enforcing the rules of the system. After World War I, the United States possessed the capacity to lead, but lacked the will to do so. Without the will to force stability on the international system, the United States missed an opportunity to prevent the onset of the Great Depression or World War II.

Finally, a hegemon must commit to the system, which needs to be perceived as mutually beneficial for other great powers and important [[state-actors]].
* A hegemon must commit to the system, which needs to be perceived as mutually beneficial by other great powers and important [[state-actors]].


== Competing theories of hegemonic stability ==
== Competing theories of hegemonic stability ==


Research on hegemony can be divided into two schools of thought: the [[Political realism|realist school]] and the [[Level of analysis#Systemic level|systemic school]]. Each school can be further sub-divided. Two dominant theories have emerged from each school. What [[Robert Keohane]] first called the "theory of hegemonic stability",<ref>Robert Gilpin. '' The Political Economy of International Relations''. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1987. 86.</ref> joins [[A. F. K. Organski]]'s [[Power Transition Theory]] as the two dominant approaches to the realist school of thought. Long Cycle Theory, espoused by [[George Modelski]], and [[World Systems Theory]], espoused by [[Immanuel Wallerstein]], have emerged as the two dominant approaches to the systemic school of thought.<ref>Terry Boswell and Mike Sweat. "Hegemony, Long Waves, and Major Wars: A Time Series Analysis of Systemic Dynamics, 1496-1967," ''International Studies Quarterly'' (1991) 35, 124.</ref>
Hegemony is an important aspect of international relations. Various schools of thought and theories have emerged in an attempt to better understand hegemonic actors and their influence.


=== The Systemic School of thought ===
=== Systemic school of thought ===


According to [[Thomas J. McCormick]], scholars and other experts on the systemic school define hegemony "as a single power's possession of 'simultaneous superior economic efficiency in production, trade and finance.'" Furthermore, a hegemon's superior position is considered the logical consequence of superior geography, technological innovation, ideology, superior resources, and other factors.<ref>Thomas J. McCormick. "World Systems," ''Journal of American History'' (June, 1990) 77, 128.</ref>
According to [[Thomas J. McCormick]], scholars and other experts on the systemic school define hegemony "as a single power's possession of 'simultaneous superior economic efficiency in production, trade and finance.'" Furthermore, a hegemon's superior position is considered the logical consequence of superior geography, technological innovation, ideology, superior resources, and other factors.<ref>Thomas J. McCormick. "World Systems," ''Journal of American History'' (June, 1990) 77, 128.</ref>


==== Long cycle theory ====
==== Long cycle theory ====


George Modelski, who presented his ideas in the book, ''Long Cycles in World Politics'' (1987), is the chief architect of long cycle theory. In a nutshell, long cycle theory describes the connection between war cycles, economic supremacy, and the political aspects of world leadership.
[[George Modelski]], who presented his ideas in the book, ''Long Cycles in World Politics'' (1987), is the chief architect of long cycle theory. In a nutshell, long cycle theory describes the connection between war cycles, economic supremacy, and the political aspects of world leadership.


Long cycles, or long waves, offer interesting perspectives on global politics by permitting "the careful exploration of the ways in which world wars have recurred, and lead states such as Britain and the United States have succeeded each other in an orderly manner." Not to be confused with [[Simon Kuznets]]' idea of [[long-cycles]], or long-swings, long cycles of global politics are patterns of past world politics.<ref>George Modelski. Long Cycles in World Politics. Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1987.</ref>
Long cycles, or long waves, offer interesting perspectives on global politics by permitting "the careful exploration of the ways in which world wars have recurred, and lead states such as Britain and the United States have succeeded each other in an orderly manner." Not to be confused with [[Simon Kuznets]]' idea of [[long-cycles]], or long-swings, long cycles of global politics are patterns of past world politics.<ref>George Modelski. Long Cycles in World Politics. Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1987.</ref>
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The long cycle, according to Dr. Dan Cox, is a period of time lasting approximately 70 to 100 years. At the end of that period, "the title of most powerful nation in the world switches hands.".<ref>Jimmy Myers. "Missouri Western Faculty Discuss Iraq War." ''St. Joseph News-Press.'' 2 Mar 2007.</ref> Modelski divides the long cycle into four phases. When periods of global war, which could last as much as one-fourth of the total long cycle, are factored in, the cycle can last from 87 to 122 years.<ref>George Modelski. Long Cycles in World Politics. Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1987, 102</ref>
The long cycle, according to Dr. Dan Cox, is a period of time lasting approximately 70 to 100 years. At the end of that period, "the title of most powerful nation in the world switches hands.".<ref>Jimmy Myers. "Missouri Western Faculty Discuss Iraq War." ''St. Joseph News-Press.'' 2 Mar 2007.</ref> Modelski divides the long cycle into four phases. When periods of global war, which could last as much as one-fourth of the total long cycle, are factored in, the cycle can last from 87 to 122 years.<ref>George Modelski. Long Cycles in World Politics. Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1987, 102</ref>


Many traditional theories of international relations, including the other approaches to hegemony, believe that the baseline nature of the international system is [[anarchy]].<ref>Mark Rupert. "Hegemonic Stability Theory. http://faculty.maxwell.syr.edu/merupert/Teaching/Hegemonic%20Stability%20Theory.htm</ref> Modelski's long cycle theory, however, states that war and other destabilizing events are a natural product of the long cycle and larger [[global system cycle]]. They are part of the living processes of the global polity and social order. Wars are "systemic decisions" that "punctuate the movement of the system at regular intervals." Because "world politics is not a random process of hit or miss, win or lose, depending on the luck of the draw or the brute strength of the contestants," anarchy simply doesn't play a role. After all, long cycles have provided, for the last five centuries, a means for the successive selection and operation of numerous world leaders.<ref>George Modelski. Long Cycles in World Politics. Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1987, 100, 135 and 227.</ref>
Many traditional theories of international relations, including the other approaches to hegemony, believe that the baseline nature of the international system is [[anarchy]].<ref>Mark Rupert. "Hegemonic Stability Theory. {{cite web |url=http://faculty.maxwell.syr.edu/merupert/Teaching/Hegemonic%20Stability%20Theory.htm |title=Hegemonic Stability Theory |access-date=2010-01-11 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20021214000422/http://faculty.maxwell.syr.edu/merupert/Teaching/Hegemonic%20Stability%20Theory.htm |archive-date=2002-12-14 }}</ref> Modelski's long cycle theory, however, states that war and other destabilizing events are a natural product of the long cycle and larger [[global system cycle]]. They are part of the living processes of the global polity and social order. Wars are "systemic decisions" that "punctuate the movement of the system at regular intervals." Because "world politics is not a random process of hit or miss, win or lose, depending on the luck of the draw or the brute strength of the contestants," anarchy simply doesn't play a role. After all, long cycles have provided, for the last five centuries, a means for the successive selection and operation of numerous world leaders.<ref>George Modelski. Long Cycles in World Politics. Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1987, 100, 135 and 227.</ref>


Modeslki used to believe that long cycles were a product of the modern period. He suggests that the five long cycles, which have taken place since about 1500, are each a part of a larger global system cycle, or the modern world system.
Modeslki used to believe that long cycles were a product of the modern period. He suggests that the five long cycles, which have taken place since about 1500, are each a part of a larger global system cycle, or the modern world system.
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Under the terms of long cycle theory, five hegemonic long cycles have taken place, each strongly correlating to economic [[Kondratieff Waves]] (or K-Waves). The first hegemon would have been Portugal during the 16th century, then the Netherlands during the 17th century. Next, Great Britain served twice, first during the 18th century, then during the 19th century. The United States has been serving as hegemon since the end of World War II.
Under the terms of long cycle theory, five hegemonic long cycles have taken place, each strongly correlating to economic [[Kondratieff Waves]] (or K-Waves). The first hegemon would have been Portugal during the 16th century, then the Netherlands during the 17th century. Next, Great Britain served twice, first during the 18th century, then during the 19th century. The United States has been serving as hegemon since the end of World War II.


The traditional view of long cycle theory has evolved somewhat, as Modelski now suggests that Northern and Southern Sung China, Venice and Genoa were each the dominant economic powers during medieval long cycles. However, he does not classify any of these states as world powers. Only when Portugal gained hegemony after 1500 is that distinction made.<ref>George Modelski. Evolution of the World Economy. https://faculty.washington.edu/modelski/Evoweconomy.html.</ref>
The traditional view of long cycle theory has evolved somewhat, as Modelski now suggests that Northern and Southern Sung China, Venice and Genoa were each the dominant economic powers during medieval long cycles. However, he does not classify any of these states as world powers. Only when Portugal gained hegemony after 1500 is that distinction made.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2014-05-19 |title=INNOVATION, GROWTH, AND GLOBAL LEADERSHIP |url=https://faculty.washington.edu/modelski/Evoweconomy.html |access-date=2023-05-11 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140519232024/https://faculty.washington.edu/modelski/Evoweconomy.html |archive-date=2014-05-19 }}</ref>


=== Other views of hegemonic stability ===
=== Other views of hegemonic stability ===


==== The neorealist interpretation of hegemony ====
==== Neorealist interpretation ====

[[Neorealism (international relations)|Neorealists]] have been focusing on this theory recently, the main proponent of it being [[John J. Mearsheimer]] who is trying to incorporate it into '[[offensive realism]]'.<ref>2001:4</ref> In his book ''[[The Tragedy of Great Power Politics]]'' Mearsheimer outlines how the anarchic system that neorealists subscribe to (see [[Kenneth Waltz]] for original theory) creates power hungry states who will each attempt to install themselves as regional and global hegemons.<ref>Mearsheimer, John, J. 'The Tragedy of Great Power Politics' W. W. Norton & Company, NYC 2001:1-366</ref> The system is created, shaped and maintained by coercion. The hegemon would begin to undermine the institution when it is not in their interests. With the decline of a hegemon, the system descends into instability.

==== Classical liberal interpretation ====
It is motivated by [[enlightened self-interest]]; the hegemon takes on the costs because it is good for all actors, thereby creating stability in the system, which is also in the interests of all actors.

==== Neoliberal interpretation ====
[[Neoliberalism (international relations)|Neoliberals]] argue that the hegemon wishes to maintain its dominant position without paying enforcement costs, so it creates a system in which it can credibly limit the returns to power (loser doesn't lose all) and credibly commit to neither dominate nor abandon them. This is done through institutions, which are sticky, (hard to change, more convenient to continue using than to revamp.) These institutions favor the hegemon but provide protection and a stable world order for the rest of the world. The more open this world-order, the less likely that there will be a challenger.<ref>Ikenberry 1999. Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Persistence of American Postwar Order.</ref> With the decline of the hegemon, institutions don't automatically die, because they were constructed in a way that benefited all stakeholders; instead, they take on a life of their own (see [[regime theory]]).<ref>Keohane, After Hegemony, 1984</ref><ref>Koremenos, Lipson & Snidal</ref>

=== Criticism ===
Keohane's 1984 book ''[[After Hegemony]]'' used insights from the [[new institutional economics]] to argue that the international system could remain stable in the absence of a hegemon, thus rebutting hegemonic stability theory.<ref name=":022">{{Cite journal|last=Keohane|first=Robert O.|date=2020|title=Understanding Multilateral Institutions in Easy and Hard Times|journal=Annual Review of Political Science|volume=23|issue=1|pages=1–18|doi=10.1146/annurev-polisci-050918-042625|issn=1094-2939|doi-access=free}}</ref> Keohane showed that international cooperation could be sustained through repeated interactions, transparency, and monitoring.<ref name=":1">{{Cite book|last=Norrlof|first=Carla|url=https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/americas-global-advantage/29F591B11AD3CCFDA25F7ED7D9191B55|title=America's Global Advantage: US Hegemony and International Cooperation|date=2010|publisher=Cambridge University Press|isbn=978-0-521-76543-5|pages=30–32|doi=10.1017/cbo9780511676406}}</ref> These factors could reduce transaction costs and provide information about other states (for example, whether the states are cheating or contributing).<ref name=":1" /> [[Duncan Snidal]] argues that international cooperation is sustainable even after hegemony because smaller states derive sufficient benefits to be willing to contribute towards international institutions.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Snidal|first=Duncan|date=1985|title=The limits of hegemonic stability theory|url=https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-organization/article/abs/limits-of-hegemonic-stability-theory/8E5D4F10ABA32BE7545EFBBC84EA7BFB|journal=International Organization|language=en|volume=39|issue=4|pages=579–614|doi=10.1017/S002081830002703X|s2cid=145529982 |issn=1531-5088}}</ref><ref name=":1" />

Using insights from [[historical institutionalism]], [[John Ikenberry]] argues that the international institutions set up by the United States are sustainable due to [[Feedback effect|feedback effects]], whereby it is costly for actors to set up alternative institutions.<ref name=":2" /><ref name=":1" /> Ikenberry also argues that hegemonic stability theory fails to account for regime types, which is essential to understanding why democratic hegemons such as the United States created institutions during periods in which they were hegemons, whereas non-democratic hegemons in previous eras did not set up institutional orders when given the opportunity.<ref name=":2" /> Consistent with hegemonic stability theory, Ikenberry argues that the ability to create institutions is partly due to power preponderance.<ref name=":2" />

Dominic Tierney argues that hegemonic stability theorists are wrong in assuming that unipolarity leads to a stable order. He argues that it is the contestation that compels the great power and other states to build international order.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Tierney|first=Dominic|date=2021-03-04|title=Why Global Order Needs Disorder|url=https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2021.1905981|journal=Survival|volume=63|issue=2|pages=115–138|doi=10.1080/00396338.2021.1905981|s2cid=232483901|issn=0039-6338}}</ref>

Maria Gavris has criticized HST for its underdeveloped conceptualization of hegemony.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Gavris|first=Maria|date=2021|title=Revisiting the fallacies in Hegemonic Stability Theory in light of the 2007–2008 crisis: the theory's hollow conceptualization of hegemony|url=https://doi.org/10.1080/09692290.2019.1701061|journal=Review of International Political Economy|volume=28|issue=3|pages=739–760|doi=10.1080/09692290.2019.1701061|s2cid=214080834|issn=0969-2290}}</ref>

== Post-Cold War period ==
=== Theory ===
On the "unipolar moment" in 1990, the leading expert on the [[world-systems theory]], [[Christopher Chase-Dunn]], linked the forthcoming period with the HST. He reminded that hegemonic rivalry led to World Wars and in future such a rivalry among core states is only likely if the US hegemony continues to decline. But the current situation of single superpower is eminently stable.<ref>Chase-Dunn, Christopher. (1990). "World-state formation: historical processes and emergent necessity." ''Political Geography Quarterly'', 9/2: pp 108-130.</ref>

To the mainstream International Relations (IR below), the unipolar world came as a surprise. [[Realism (international relations)|Realists]], shaped by “two World Wars and the Cold War, understood the differing logics of multipolar and bipolar systems, but apparently failed to envision a unipolar world because none of their works before the end of the Cold War accounts for it.”<ref>Fergusson, Chaka, (2011). “Soft power as the new norm: how the Chinese-Russian strategic partnership (soft) balances American hegemony in an era of unipolarity,” PhD thesis, Florida International University, p 51, https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1449&context=et</ref>

For several more years following the "unipolar moment", IR analysis overwhelmingly argued for instability and imminent collapse of the hegemonic order.<ref>Waltz, Kenneth, (1997). “Evaluating theories,” ''American Political Science Association'', 91/4: pp 915-916.</ref><ref>Waltz, Kenneth, (2002). "Structural Realism after the Cold War," ''America Unrivaled: the Future of American Power'', (ed. Ikenberry, John, Ithaka & London: Cornell University Press), p 52.</ref> Mark Sheetz was one of the first IR scholars to explicitly link the post-Cold War order with the HST: The US strategy, he wrote in 1997, fits "the expectations of hegemonic stability theory more comfortably than do other Realist theories. The latter predict that efforts to preserve hegemony would be futile and counterproductive, but not so hegemonic stability theory."<ref>Sheetz, Mark, (1997-98), "Correspondence: debating the unipolar moment," ''International Security'', 22/3: p 168-169.</ref>

Only in 1999, came to light an article completely and explicitly devoted to the subject. [[William Wohlforth]] titled it "The stability of a unipolar world",<ref>Wohlforth, William, (1999). “The Stability of a unipolar world.” ''International Security'', 24/1: pp 5-41.</ref> paraphrasing the 1964 title, "The stability of a bipolar world", by the founder of [[Neorealism (international relations)|Neorealism]], [[Kenneth Waltz]].<ref>Waltz, Kenneth, (1964). "The stability of the bipolar world," ''Daedalus'', 93/3: pp 881-909.</ref> Wohlforth stressed the theoretical lag: "[The] hegemonic theory has received little shrill in the debate over the nature of the post-Cold War international system. This omission is unwarranted, for the theory has simple and profound implications for the peacefulness of the post-Cold War international order that are backed up by a formidable body of scholarship."<ref>Wohlforth 1999, p 23.</ref>

The first obstacle facing the IR research after the Cold War was mathematical - how many poles gives two minus one. There is no evidence the IR scholars collaborated with the department of mathematics and probably worked on their own. In 1997, [[Michael W. Doyle]] summarized six years of calculations: We declare that the new world order exists "and now we must ask what do we mean." Two poles minus one might give one, three, four, five and even zero poles. Doyle concluded with undefined number of "many" poles.<ref>Doyle, Michael, (1997). ''Ways of War and Peace'', (New York: W. W. Norton), p 483-486.</ref>

The mathematical breakthrough occurred two years later in the above-mentioned work by Wohlforth: Two states measured up as polar powers in 1990. "One is gone. No new pole has appeared: 2 - 1 = 1. The system is unipolar."<ref>Wohlforth 1999: p 10.</ref> The article by Wohlforth, according to [[Stephen Walt]], broke the theoretical path.<ref>Walt, Stephen, (2002). "Keeping the world 'off balance': self restraint and American foreign policy," ''America Unrivaled: The Future of American Power'', (ed. Ikenberry, John, Ithaka & London: Cornell University Press), p 127.</ref>

In the following decade, the IR research tentatively switched to the unipolar or hegemonic stability, which replaced the [[Balance of power (international relations)|balance of power]] as the focus of intense debate among IR scholars.<ref>Layne, Christopher, (2009). "The waning of US hegemony--myth or reality? A review essay," ''International Security'', 34/1:
p 161.</ref> Charles Kupchan, who since 1991 expects an imminent end to the US hegemony, in 2003 agreed that this hegemony causes the present peace and stability.<ref>Kupchan, Charles, (2003). ''The End of the American Era: US Foreign Policy and Geopolitics in the Twenty-First Century'', (New York: Vintage Books), pp 28, 57-58.</ref>

Until the early 2000s, Jack S. Levy and William Thompson adhered to the main Realist paradigm that hegemonic stability is theoretically impossible because other states would counter-balance.<ref>Levy, Jack, & Thompson, William, (2003). "Balances and balancing: concepts, proposition and research design," ''Realism and the Balancing of Power: A New Debate'', (eds. Vasques, A., & Elman, Colin, New Jersey, Prentice Hall), pp 131, 133.</ref><ref>Levy, Jack, (2004). ''Systems, Stability and Statecraft: Essays on the International History of Modern Europe'', (London: Palgrave Macmillan), p 37.</ref> By the end of the decade, however, both engaged in search for the causes of the present hegemonic stability.<ref>Levy, Jack, & Thompson, William, (2010). "Balancing on land and at sea: do states ally against the leading global power," ''International Security'', 35/1: p 8.</ref> In 2009, the student and follower of Waltz, Christopher Layne, confessed: "As events transpires, however, the fate of earlier hegemons has not befallen the United States."<ref>Layne, Christopher, (2009). "The waning of US hegemony--myth or reality? A review essay," ''International Security'', 34/1: p 150.</ref> In the 2010s, more IR scholars accepted the hegemonic stability as a theory most fitting the post-Cold War period.<ref>Van der Putten, Frans-Paul, & Rood, Jan, & Meijnders, Minke, (2016). “Great powers and global stability,” ''Clingendael Monitor'', p 7, https://www.clingendael.org/sites/default/files/pdfs/clingendael_monitor2016-great_powers_and_global_stability-eng_0.pdf</ref>

Curiously, one of the classics of the HST, Gilpin, denied the existence of the post-Cold-War hegemony and never applied the theory to this period. In 2002, Gilpin referred to some scholars who define the present system as hegemonic. "Less sanguin observers," however, countered that the bipolar system was supplanted by "chaotic, multipolar world of five or more major powers."<ref>Gilpin, Robert, (2002). ''The Challenge of Global Capitalism: The World Economy in the Twenty-First Century'', (Princeton & Oxford: Princeton University Press), p 16.</ref> The proclamation of the "new world order" he attributed to the end of the [[Gulf War]] in 1991,<ref>Gilpin 2002: p 8.
</ref> though the proclamation is attested from 1990<ref>Pastusiak, Longin, (April 3, 2004). "We need to build a new world order," ''Herald Tribune'', p 4.</ref> and the Gulf War had been regarded as the first test to the already existing new world order.<ref>[[Lawrence Freedman]], 'The Gulf War and the New World Order,' ''Survival'', 33/3, (1991): p 195-196.</ref>

=== Application ===
==== United States ====
{{unreferenced section|date=December 2016}}
Although the Hegemonic stability theory is attributed to the 1973 work by Kindleberger and the Realist mainstream rejected it for three decades longer, several scholars since World War II had theorized about the US [[Balance of power (international relations)#Preponderance_of_power|preponderance of power]] which is identical in its arguments to the hegemonic stability. Similar arguments ping-ponged in the literature about the American foreign policy until the 2017 [[Peace through strength]] promised by Donald Trump.<ref>{{Cite news |last=DeYoung |first=Karen |date=2023-05-24 |title=Trump's national security adviser says foreign policy will emphasize 'peace through strength' |language=en-US |newspaper=Washington Post |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trumps-national-security-adviser-says-foreign-policy-will-emphasize-peace-through-strength/2017/01/10/e4652c08-d767-11e6-b8b2-cb5164beba6b_story.html |access-date=2023-06-21 |issn=0190-8286}}</ref>

Three scholars described how the US-led hegemonic system produces stability in the Twenty-First century: The United States makes its power safe for the world and in return the world agrees to live within the hegemonic system maintaining formal or informal alliances and open markets.<ref>Anderson, Jeffrey, & Ikenberry, John, & Risse, Thomas, (2008). ''The End of the West? Crisis and Change in the Atlantic Order'', Ithaka & London: Cornell University Press, p 10.</ref> The United States has been influential in moving many countries towards embracing the free market through institutions such as the [[International Monetary Fund]] and [[World Bank]] (see [[Washington Consensus]]).{{Citation needed|date=May 2009}}

Curiously, at the peak of the 2003 anti-hegemonic crisis, the world public opinion remained highly pro-hegemonic and convinced in the hegemonic stability. Large majorities of people in most surveyed countries thought that the world would be a more dangerous place if there were a rival to the American superpower. 64% of the French, 70% of the Mexicans and 63% of the Jordanians thought this way.<ref>{{Cite news |title=Living with a superpower |newspaper=The Economist |url=https://www.economist.com/special-report/2003/01/02/living-with-a-superpower |access-date=2023-06-21 |issn=0013-0613}}</ref>

The US network of alliances created in the early Cold War remains intact in the post-Cold War period and NATO almost doubled in members. When NATO counted only 16 members, it was already described as the most successful alliance in history.<ref>{{Cite web |last= |title=The Atlantic Alliance and European Security in the 1990s Address by NATO Secretary General, Manfred Wörner to the Bremer Ta... |url=http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_23732.htm |access-date=2023-06-21 |website=NATO |language=en}}</ref> As of 2023, it counts 30 members. The exact number of US allies worldwide is undefined because there is no clear criteria for counting unofficial defense partnerships. Bradley A. Thayer counts 84;<ref>Thayer, Bradley A., (November/December 2006). "In defense of primacy," ''National Interest'', 86: p 34.</ref> Max Ostrovsky over 100.<ref>Ostrovsky, Max, (2018). ''Military Globalization: Geography, Strategy, Weaponry'', (New York: Edwin Mellen Press), p 281.</ref> 130 countries<ref>"Base structure report," Department of Defense, Washington, 2003.</ref> or even more<ref>Boggs, Carl, (2003). ''Masters of War: Militarism and Blowback in the Era of American Empire'', (New York & London: Routledge), pp 2-3.</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=America's Empire of Bases |url=https://www.sas.upenn.edu/~dludden/America%27s%20Empire%20of%20Bases.htm |access-date=2023-06-21 |website=www.sas.upenn.edu}}</ref><ref>Johnson, Chalmers, (February 1, 2007). "Empire versus democracy: why nemesis is at our door?" ''Antiwar.com''</ref><ref>{{Cite news |last=Freedland |first=Jonathan |title=Bush's Amazing Achievement {{!}} Jonathan Freedland |language=en |url=https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2007/06/14/bushs-amazing-achievement/ |access-date=2023-06-21 |issn=0028-7504}}</ref> host US bases. Most of these countries are either formal allies or informal defense partners.<ref>Ostrovsky 2018: p 281.</ref>

Fifteen years in the post-Cold War period, Thayer calculated the hegemonic stabilization: Of 192 countries, 84 are allied with America and they include almost all of the developed economies. That is a combined GDP ratio of almost 17 to 1, a big change from the Cold War when the same ratio was about 1.8 to 1. Never before in history had any country so many allies.<ref>Thayer 2006: p 34.</ref> Ostrovsky outlined a political-economic rule which, he claims, has a very few exceptions: countries with the [[List of countries by GDP (nominal) per capita|nominal per capita GDP]] above the world average formally or informally ally with the United States.<ref>Ostrovsky 2018, pp 185-186.</ref>

These are not alliances in the Westphalian sense characterized by impermanence and power-balancing; rather it is a hegemonic system of the Roman kind. Most states of the world host the hegemonic bases, many of them partly cover expenses for running them ("host nation support"), integrate their strategic forces under the hegemonic command, contribute 1-2% of their GDP to the integrated forces, and tip military, economic and humanitarian contributions in case of the hegemonic campaigns worldwide. Actually, these states, some of them recent great powers, surrender their strategic sovereignty ''en masse'' in favor of the hegemonic stability.<ref>Ostrovsky 2018: pp 286-287.</ref>

==== External balancing ====
While the hegemonic bloc concentration is overwhelming, anti-hegemonic military alliances do not form. No power entangles itself in military alliance against the United States. "No counter-hegemonic coalition has taken shape, and none is on the horizon."<ref>Brooks, Stephen G., & Wohlforth, (2008). ''World out of Balance: International Relations and the Challenge of American Primacy'', (Princeton & Oxford: Princeton University Press), p 23-24.</ref> The only visible pattern to the relations between Moscow and Beijing since the late 1950s is that there is no pattern. There is no evidence that they want to transform their [[strategic partnership]] into a military alliance and much evidence to suggest that they do not.<ref>Ostrovsky 2018: p 204.</ref>

==== China ====
The United States is still considered by most analysts to be at the top of the world, both economically and in terms of military strength.<ref>{{cite web|title=Country Comparison: GDP (Purchasing Power Parity)|url=https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2001rank.html |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070613003104/https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2001rank.html |url-status=dead |archive-date=June 13, 2007 |access-date=26 February 2011|website=The World Factbook}}</ref><ref>{{cite magazine|last1=Thompson|first1=Mark|title=How to Save a Trillion Dollars|url=http://www.airforce.com/learn-about/our-mission/|magazine=Time|access-date=2015-04-07|archive-date=2015-11-21|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20151121053333/http://www.airforce.com/learn-about/our-mission/|url-status=dead}}</ref> With these abundant resources and power, the world remains "a single superpower world".<ref>{{cite book|last1=Zakaria|title=The Post-American World|year=2008|isbn=9780393062359|url=https://archive.org/details/postamericanworl00zak_vrb|url-access=registration}}</ref> However, many analysts envisage the [[emerging power|emergence of new giants]] which threaten the U.S. hegemony. These giants, they argue, create new power centers all over the world and the world becomes ever more multipolar. Of those new giants, the single greatest competitor of United States is China as it is growing rapidly with "no equal in modern history".<ref>{{cite book|last1=Fishman|first1=Ted|title=China, INC.: How the Rise of the Next Superpower Challenges America and the World|url=https://archive.org/details/chinainchowriseo00fish|url-access=registration|date=2005|publisher=Scribner|location=New York|isbn=9780743257527}}</ref> Historically, examples of hegemonic decline come in two prime sectors: the leading state's military and its economy.<ref>{{cite web|last1=Herrington|first1=Luke|title=Why the Rise of China Will Not Lead to Global Hegemony|url=http://www.e-ir.info/2011/07/15/why-the-precarious-rise-of-china-will-not-lead-to-global-hegemony/|website=E-International Relations|date=15 July 2011}}</ref> Both arenas are crucial for the analysis of the shifting power structure.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Coco |first1=Orazio |title=Contemporary China and the "Harmonious" World Order in the Age of Globalization |journal=The Chinese Journal of Global Governance |date= 6 Apr 2020 |volume=6 |issue=1 |pages=1–19 |doi=10.1163/23525207-12340044 |doi-access=free }}</ref>

With the highest gross domestic product at purchasing power parity,<ref>{{cite web|title=East & Southeast Asia: China|url=https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/china/|website=The World Factbook|date=25 October 2022 |publisher=Central Intelligence Agency}}</ref> China poses a significant challenge to U.S. economic primacy especially with the expectation that U.S. national debt could explode to 717% of GDP by 2080 according to [[Congressional Budget Office|Congressional Budget office]]. Moreover, this debt is financed largely by China through the purchase of U.S. Treasury bonds. On the other hand, China's economic power, not limited to but including industrialization and modernization, is rapidly burgeoning with high consumption and increasing foreign investment.<ref>{{cite book|last1=Murray|first1=Geoffrey|title=China: The Next Superpower: Dilemmas in Change and Continuity|date=1998|publisher=St. Martin's Press|location=New York}}</ref> As Global Trends 2025 points out, the rise of China and India to great power status will restore each to "the positions they held two centuries ago when China produced approximately 30 percent and India 15 percent of the world's wealth."<ref>{{Cite book|title=Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World|last=National Intelligence Council (NIC)|publisher=Washington D.C.: Government Printing Office|date=November 2008|page=7}}</ref>

By 2018, [[Michael Beckley (political scientist)|Michael Beckley]] counted hundreds of books and thousands of articles envisioning the decline of the US, the rise of China and the multipolar world, and outlined an element common to these works—they all relied on gross indicators of power, such as GDP or military spending. These are the same indicators that made China look like a superpower during its century of humiliation (1839-1911). They reflect large population but do not consider welfare costs—the expenses a nation pays to provide this population with food, health care, social security, police, administration and education. Deducting these costs from gross indicators would give net indicators. Beckley suggests considering GDP per capita, more precisely multiplying it by total GDP. According to this net indicator, China still lags far behind the US.<ref>{{Cite web |title=The Power of Nations: Measuring What Matters |url=https://direct.mit.edu/isec/article/43/2/7/12211/The-Power-of-Nations-Measuring-What-Matters?searchresult=1 |access-date=2023-07-19 |website=direct.mit.edu}}</ref>

Writing in 1992, Andrew L. Shapiro assured regarding the U.S.: With troops operating abroad in more than fifty-five countries, "a military force is extended so much that it nears a breaking point."<ref>{{cite book|last1=Shapiro|first1=Andrew|title=We're Number One: Where America Stands—and Falls—in the New World Order|date=1992|publisher=Vintage Books}}</ref> After three decades of "nearing a breaking point," the U.S administration approved a record–breaking peacetime national defense budget of $813 billion.<ref>{{Cite news |last=Stone |first=Mike |date=2022-06-22 |title=U.S. Congress moves to boost Biden's record defense budget |language=en |work=Reuters |url=https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-congress-moves-boost-bidens-record-defense-budget-2022-06-22/ |access-date=2023-07-19}}</ref> Meanwhile, Shapiro continued in 1992, China is taking advantage by industrializing its army using their wealth. China's military budget is increasing, and the troops are expanding. A decade later, Steven W. Mosher insisted that China is building up its armed forces "to break America's back in Asia and thus end America's reign as the sole superpower in the world."<ref>{{cite book|last1=Mosher|first1=Steven|title=Hegemon: China's Plan to Dominate Asia and the World|date=2002|publisher=Encounter Books|location=San Francisco, California}}</ref>

Regarding military development in China, by 2022, China was estimated to accumulate between 350 and 400 nuclear warheads, just exceeding [[Charles de Gaulle]]'s [[force de frappe]] and 15 times short of the U.S. arsenal.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2022-11-29 |title=China to increase nuclear warheads to 1,500, Pentagon warns |url=https://apnews.com/article/taiwan-europe-china-united-states-beijing-af4dd76e993f450df7af8e63d1a0187c |access-date=2023-07-19 |website=AP News |language=en}}</ref> The disparity of the [[Nuclear triad|delivery means]] is even greater.<ref>Ostrovsky 2018: p 205-206.</ref> As of 2023, China has not yet introduced its first intercontinental bomber, the longest-range Chinese [[Xian H-6]] bombers can only reach Guam.

As of 2023, China has two outdated Kuznezov-type aircraft carriers. When China purchased the first, analysts supposed that it would serve as a tourist attraction like Soviet carriers ''Kiev'' and ''Minsk'' used to.<ref>{{Cite web |title=China's Aircraft Carrier Ambitions |url=https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=&httpsredir=1&article=2074&context=nwc-review |access-date=2023-07-19}}</ref> The Chinese anti-hegemonic challenge is like horizon - never gets closer.

Furthermore, many argue that China has a symbiotic relationship with the United States. If the United States declines, it is likely that China also may be in jeopardy. John Gulick points out that China's prosperity is "deeply ensconced in the 'China produces and lends, the US borrows and spends' framework".<ref name="auto">{{cite book|last1=Gulick|first1=John|year=2011|title=The Long Twentieth Century and Barriers to China's Hegemonic Accession|publisher=Journal of World-Systems Research}}</ref> Economic interdependence of China derives from the fact that they are a producing state rather than a consuming state. China's economy is export heavy as its driving force lies in "export processing measures".<ref name="auto"/> The export dependent structure could severely dampen economic growth if demand for Chinese exports is reduced by another economic crisis in the United States. Besides the economic interdependence, China might face additional barriers to its hegemonic aspirations, such as domestic political instability, environmental degradation, public health issues, and demographic trends.<ref>{{Cite book|title=China: Fragile Superpower: How China's Internal Politics Could Derail Its Peaceful Rise|last=Shirk|first=Susan|publisher=Oxford: Oxford University Press|year=2007}}</ref>

==== Russia ====
More revisionist appeared Russia under Vladimir Putin. Repeatedly he addressed the international community with anti-hegemonic agenda, arguing that the post-Cold War hegemony is unstable: "After the dissolution of bipolarity on the planet, we no longer have stability." Key international institutions are ignored by the United States and its western allies. They use force against sovereign states. Instead of settling conflicts they contribute to their escalation, instead of democracy and freedom they support a very dubious public ranging from neo-fascists to Islamic radicals, and instead of stable states they produce chaos, outbreaks in violence and a series of upheavals. A "unilateral diktat" leads to instability.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Speech of Vladimir Putin {{!}} The Crimean Archipelago |url=https://crimea.dekoder.org//speech |access-date=2023-07-19 |website=crimea.dekoder.org |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |date=2014-10-24 |title=Meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club |url=http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/46860 |access-date=2023-07-19 |website= |language=en}}</ref>

The Russian foreign policy under Putin steadily became more aggressive, culminating with the [[2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine]]. The United States responded with sanctions and military aid to Ukraine. This U.S. response was criticized by some officials and experts as appeasement. Timo S. Koster who served at NATO as Director of Defence Policy & Capabilities criticized: A massacre is taking place in Europe and the strongest military alliance in the world is staying out of it.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Koster |first=Ben Hodges, Timo S. |date=2022-05-05 |title=NATO Must Re-Learn Deterrence |url=https://cepa.org/article/nato-must-re-learn-deterrence/ |access-date=2023-07-19 |website=CEPA |language=en-US}}</ref> [[Philip Breedlove]], a retired four-star U.S. Air Force general and a former [[SACEUR]], said that the West have "ceded the initiative to the enemy."<ref>Tavberidze, Vazha, (2022). "Former NATO Commander Says Western Fears Of Nuclear War Are Preventing A Proper Response To Putin," ''Radio Free Europe'', April 07.</ref> No attempt was made by NATO to deter Moscow with the threat of military force, as expressed by another expert.<ref>Bar, Shmuel, (2022). "Deterrence after Ukraine—a critical analysis," ''Quillette'', March 24.</ref><ref>{{Cite magazine |date=2022-03-09 |title=How Russia Is Beating the West at Deterrence |url=https://time.com/6155990/russia-ukraine-invasion-deterrence/ |access-date=2023-07-19 |magazine=Time |language=en}}</ref> Nevertheless, the U.S. response, combined with similar measures by the NATO allies and the Ukrainian resistance, was enough to roll back the Russian troops on most fronts and, as of 2023, reduce the Russian conquests to the regions with pro-Russian majority.


== Test against historical evidence ==
[[Neorealism (international relations)|Neorealists]] have been focusing on this theory recently, the main proponent of it being John J. Mearsheimer who is trying to incorporate it into 'offensive realism'.<ref>2001:4</ref> In his book 'The Tragedy of Great Power Politics' Mearsheimer outlines how the anarchic system that neorealists subscribe to (see Kenneth Waltz for original theory) creates power hungry states who will each attempt to install themselves as regional and global hegemons.<ref>Mearsheimer, John, J. 'The Tragedy of Great Power Politics' W. W. Norton & Company, NYC 2001:1-366</ref> His theory is not widely embraced by fellow realists who argue that the hegemon supports the system so long as it is in their interests.{{citation needed|date=July 2012}} The system is created, shaped and maintained by coercion. The hegemon would begin to undermine the institution when it is not in their interests. With the decline of a hegemon, the system descends into instability. Other realists argue that the anarchic system does not actually give causal motivation to aid the creation of hegemons.{{citation needed|date=July 2012}}
=== Complications ===
The first complication for testing the HST against history is the absence of a case to test. The world hegemony is unprecedented.<ref>Walt, Stephen, (2009). "Alliances in a unipolar world, ''World Politics'', 61/1: p 86.
</ref> William Wohlforth emphasized that we are living in the world's first hegemonic system.<ref>Wohlforth 1999: p 37.</ref> Even the leading Realist opponent of the HST agreed on the matter: A dominant power without rivals rising to challenge is a position without precedent.<ref>Waltz 2002: p 63.</ref> Hence, Walt concluded in 2009, there is not yet consensus on the overall impact of hegemony. The phenomenon is recent and has yet to receive a sustained theoretical attention.<ref>Walt 2009: p 87.</ref>


Moreover, the historical IR research remains Eurocentric and Europe has not experienced pan-European hegemony since the fall of Rome. The world during the [[Pax Britannica]] was multipolar rather than hegemonic and the period is characterized by hegemonic rivalry rather than stability.<ref>Wohlforth 1999: p 26.</ref> Earlier modern European powers named hegemonic in some works, such as the Netherlands, Spain and Portugal, were even less hegemonic than Britain. Gilpin noted that Portugal and the Netherlands only dominated trade.<ref>Gilpin 1981: p 145.</ref> Modern Europe before 1990 had never been hegemonic system, which by definition has only one unrivaled power.
==== The neoliberal interpretation of hegemony ====


A product of eurocentric research, the Hegemonic Stability Theory was as much theory about instability. In a cyclical pattern, the hegemonic stability would be followed by violent hegemonic power transition to rising competitors (Gilpin, Modelski, Organsky). Periods of expansion are followed by equilibrium which is “merely a temporary phenomenon in the continuing process of international political change.”<ref>Gilpin 1981: p 155.</ref> Organsky, having combined the Hegemonic Stability Theory with the [[Power transition theory]], created a perfect oxymoron. Bound to the modern Europe, the IR research found dubious hegemons, drew from these cases the paradigm of imminent hegemonic fall and implied it to the United States:
[[Neoliberalism (international relations)|Neoliberals]] argue that the hegemon wishes to maintain its dominant position without paying enforcement costs, so it creates a system in which it can credibly limit the returns to power (loser doesn't lose all) and credibly commit to neither dominate nor abandon them. This is done through institutions, which are sticky, (hard to change, more convenient to continue using than to revamp.) These institutions favor the hegemon, but provide protection and a stable world order for the rest of the world. The more open this world-order, the less likely that there will be a challenger. <ref>Ikenberry 1999. Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Persistence of American Postwar Order.</ref>
{{Quote|
With the decline of the hegemon, institutions don't automatically die, because they were constructed in a way that benefited all stakeholders; instead, they take on a life of their own (see [[regime theory]]).<ref>Keohane, After Hegemony, 1984</ref> <ref>Koremenos, Lipson & Snidal</ref>
One of the ironclad lesson of history is that great powers that seek hegemony are always opposed—and defeated—by the counterbalancing efforts of other states. Yet the prevailing belief among the American foreign policy community is that the United States is exempt from the fate of hegemons.<ref>Layne, Christopher, (2006). ''The Peace of Illusions: American Grand Strategy from 1940 to the Present'', (Cornell University Press), p 150.</ref><ref>Also Layne, Christopher, (1993). "The unipolar illusion: why new great powers will rise?" ''International Security'', 17/4: p 7.</ref><ref>Also Layne, Christopher, (2008). "China's challenge to the US hegemony," ''Current History'', 107/705: p 20.</ref>}}


=== Beyond modern Europe ===
==== The classical liberal interpretation of hegemony ====
With the American hegemony counting its first decade (since 1990) and showing no signs of collapse in sight, several IR scholars supposed that to find something similar even on regional scale it is necessary to descend to pre-modern times and extend the scope beyond Europe. In 2007, two books devoted to pre-modern civilizations came to light. One was edited by Wohlforth with contributions from experts on several pre-modern civilizations.<ref>Wohlforth, William, & Kaufman, Stuart, & Little, Richard, (2007). ''Balance of Power in World History'', (London: Palgrave Macmillan).</ref> One of the contributors was Victoria Tin-bor Hui, whose civilization (China) experienced centuries-long unipolar stability. The other book was by Max Ostrovsky,<ref>Ostrovsky, Max, (2007). ''The Hyperbola of the World Order'', (Lanham: University Press of America).
It is motivated by '[[enlightened self-interest]]'; the hegemon takes on the costs because it is good for all actors, thereby creating stability in the system, which is also in the interests of all actors.
</ref> who completed two degrees in world history and PhD in International Relations. This book became the first attempt of theory by a professional historian and at the same time the first IR research extensively based on primary sources.


Both works found that most civilizations most of time were unipolar and the European long balance of power was exceptional in world history. Victoria Tin-bor Hui and Ostrovsky explained it by the expanding nature of the European system, while hegemonic stability needs a geopolitically closed system.<ref>Victoria Tin-bor Hui, ''War and State Formation in China and Early Modern Europe'', Cambridge University Press, 2005, p. 141.</ref><ref>Ostrovsky 2007: pp 38-53.</ref> The next complication, however, was the kind of unipolarity. Most of unipolar civilizations were universal empires rather than system-wide hegemonies. The former are distinct by formal rule, territorial conquest and annexation, and regular taxation. The team of Wohlforth disregarded this complication. Ostrovsky found in world history three system-wide hegemonies—[[Hegemony#30th–27th_centuries_BC|Sumer]], [[Hegemony#8th–3rd_centuries_BC|Qin]] in 364-221 BC and [[Hegemony#2nd_century_BC_–_15th_century_AD|Rome]] in 189-63 BC.
==== Criticism ====


=== Three known cases ===
Duncan Snidal argues that 'the range of the theory is very limited to very special conditions,' and suggests that the decline of a hegemonic power may demonstrate the possibility of a collective power. According to Snidal, the applicability of the theory can be challenged due to limitations and the theory only holds true empirically under special conditions.<ref>Snidal, D. (1985). The limits of hegemonic stability theory. ''International Organization'', 39, pp 579-614. </ref>
The first striking element is that system-wide hegemonies were rare occasions in world history. The second striking element is that all three known hegemonies were anything but stable. Ostrovsky tested the HST on the three known cases: The hegemon of Sumer, [[Kish (Sumer)|House of Kish]], sent envoys to [[Gilgamesh]]. Gilgamesh addressed the assembly of warriors: "Let us not submit to the House of Kish, let us smite it with weapons!" The assembly wholeheartedly agreed. "At the word of the fighting men of his city his heart rejoiced, his spirit brightened." A battle was fought and the hegemon was defeated and imprisoned.<ref>[[Samuel Noah Kramer]], ''History Begins in Sumer'', University of Pennsylvania Press, 1956, p 32-33.</ref><ref>Gilgames, 41-47, 90-98. ''The Epic of Gilgames. The Babylonian Epic Poem and Other Texts in Accadian and Sumerian'', (tr. George, Andrew, London: Penguin Books, 1999: pp 146-148).</ref> Hegemony is as old as history. According to the ''[[Sumerian King List]]'', Kish established the hegemony yet before the [[Flood myth|Flood]]. The anti-hegemonic resistance dates to the same dawn of history too, recorded in one of the [[Gilgamesh and Aga|earliest literary legacies of mankind]].


The hegemonic Qin did not produce anymore stability. The [[Warring States period|Warring States]] went more warring. Qin emerged victorious and hegemonic after a war in 364 BC. Shortly, almost all the rest of the Chinese world united into an anti-hegemonic alliance, called Vertical or Perpendicular, and at least once the whole Chinese world "united their wills and joined their forces to attack Qin."<ref>[[Sima Qian]], 6:279. ''[[Records of the Grand Historian]]'', ed. [[Burton Watson]], Hong Kong: Columbia University Press, 1962.</ref> "With a force of 1,000,000 soldiers drown from area ten times large than Qin, they beat upon the Pass [to the land of Qin] and pressed forward toward Qin."<ref>[[Sima Qian]], 4:167; 5:208, 211, 219; 6:224. ''[[Records of the Grand Historian]]'', ed. [[Burton Watson]], Hong Kong: Columbia University Press, 1962.</ref> The same dreadful scenario repeated itself several times. Massive anti-hegemonic alliances characterized the period.<ref>[[Han Fei]],1:5-12. ''Complete Works'', tr. W. K. Liao, London: Columbia University Press, 1959.</ref><ref>Sima Qian, 4:167, 5:208-224.</ref> As in Sumer, in the Warring-States China hegemony was bound with anti-hegemony. The Qin armies repeatedly crashed the anti-hegemonic alliances in at least 15 major campaigns<ref>[[Han Fei]],1:5-12. ''Complete Works'', tr. W. K. Liao, London: Columbia University Press, 1959.</ref><ref>Sima Qian, 6:261.</ref> Eventually, [[Qin's wars of unification|Qin launched a universal conquest]] and established universal empire.
== Is the United States of America still a hegemon? ==


The contemporary to Qin Roman hegemony was more stable with longer periods of peace, but almost each generation the system experienced major wars. The [[Fourth Macedonian War|last war against Macedonia]] (148 BC) and the last [[Third Punic War|Punic War]] (146 BC) were wars of annexation. Three [[Mithridatic Wars]] (88-63 BC) were anti-hegemonic wars led by [[Kingdom of Pontus|Pontus]] and similarly ended by annexation of Pontus and the Near East. In the course of these and other wars, Rome, like Qin, evolved from hegemony into universal empire.
Hegemony demands power, which is defined by [[Susan Strange]] as the ability of one party to affect outcomes such that their preferences take precedence over the preferences of other parties. The question of whether the U.S. is still a hegemon is tied into whether or not it has lost power.
Keohane sees power as tied into resources and production. The US GDP is now lower relative to others as there are growing economies with considerable amount of GDP such as [[BRIC]] countries. This implies a loss or decreased power of US as a hegemon.


"Balance of power, repeatedly remarked two proponents of hegemonic stability, predicts that states will try to prevent the rise of a hegemon; it tells us nothing about what will happen once a country establishes such a position," nor history yields such an implication.<ref>Brooks, Stephen G., & Wohlforth, (2002). "American primacy," ''Foreign Affairs'', 81/4: p 98.</ref><ref>Brooks, Stephen G., & Wohlforth, (2008). ''World out of Balance: International Relations and the Challenge of American Primacy'', (Princeton & Oxford: Princeton University Press), p 35.</ref> History, however, yields. Rome and Qin were well established hegemons but were repeatedly counter-balanced by rival powers or coalitions until they conquered and annexed them.
Although resources are an important determinant of power, they are not always determinative. For example, the German troops that conquered western Europe were actually fewer in number than their opponents. Susan Strange uses this logic to argue that the U.S. is still a hegemon.


=== Hegemonic stage ===
One form of power that the U.S. possess is structural power. After the [[Exxon Valdez]] accident, the US passed a domestic law commanding any oil delivery ship to have unlimited liability insurance. Even though most oil shipping companies are located overseas, they nevertheless complied with the law because the US is world's largest market for oil. This non coercive or attractive form of power is key to Keohane and Nye's concept of [[Soft Power]].
Historic cases of system-wide hegemonies accord Balance of Power theory rather than the HST—anti-hegemonic balancing happened and on large scales, as Balance of Power predicts. The only difference is that counter-balancing did not lead to the restoration of balance in the system but in the opposite direction—the hegemonies prevailed and established universal empires. Hence, Ostrovsky concluded that the three cases - of Qin, Rome and the US - are analogous systemic transformations from warring states to hegemony to universal empire with the modern process being presently uncompleted.<ref>Ostrovsky 2007: pp 320, 362-363.</ref>
In addition to structural power, the U.S. has many resources. It unilaterally helped [[Mexico]] in the [[1994 economic crisis in Mexico|Peso Crisis]] and unilaterally helped [[Russia]] with economic aid. The United States has also been influential in moving many countries towards embracing the free market; through institutions such as the [[International Monetary Fund]], the United States has pushed Latin American nations to undertake economic programs in accordance with its own foreign policy Interests (see [[Washington Consensus]]).{{Citation needed|date=May 2009}}


Remarkably, all three great powers, Rome, Qin and the US were on the edge of the contemporary civilization and geographically protected, Rome by sea, Qin by mountain ranges and the US by oceans. All three began by the policy of isolation using their natural barriers. Rome initially maintained the doctrine of "no foreign foot in Italy" and later of "no foreign foot in Europe;"<ref>Ostrovsky 2007: p 246.</ref> Qin began with analogous policy of no foreign foot within the passes.<ref>Ostrovsky 2007: p 252. </ref> And the US began with the [[United States non-interventionism|policy of isolation]] and [[Monroe Doctrine|no foreign foot in the Americas]]. All three abandoned isolationism in favor of hegemony. Rome and Qin were the only cases in world history when great powers first established a system-wide hegemony and later universal empire. All other known universal empires were established directly out of the system of warring states and avoiding the hegemonic stage. Probably geographic isolation favors this particular hegemonic stage.
== Gilpin's Argument ==


Earlier, Pentagon strategist, [[Edward Luttwak]], turned into Roman historian and produced a famous research on the Roman hegemony.<ref>Luttwak, Edward, (1979). ''The Grand Strategy of the Roman Empire'', (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press).</ref> Implicitly advocating hegemony for the United States, Luttwak argued that transforming hegemony into empire was Rome's fatal mistake. By contrast to empire, hegemony saves much power.<ref>Luttwak 1979: p 192.</ref>
This argument opposes balancing and the Balance of Power Theory. His theory targets the system by analysis. He contends that the system naturally goes toward equilibrium. To acquire a new system, global war or "hegemonic war", definitionally creates a new hegemon. This new hegemon will create the new system of the world with their own set of preferences. Similar to a global war, the hegemon's job is to keep their newly founded order. They accomplish this by providing public goods; examples include the United States attempts at initialising a stable currency by means of the IMF, use of the gold standard, establishment of the World Bank, world defence (NATO), and democratisation. These are norms that the U.S. have shown preference towards and have spent the past several decades demonstrating their new system.


Basing on the comparative analysis between Rome and Qin instead of the single case of Rome, Ostrovsky countered that the transformation of hegemony into empire is not always fatal mistake - China still exists. And in both cases the transformation resulted in a more stable order and "Golden Age." Replying on Luttwak's thesis of the "economy of force" by a hegemonic power, Ostrovsky suggested that it "naturally results in the economy of obedience by a ruled periphery."<ref>Ostrovsky 2007: pp 240-242.</ref> A year after Ostrovsky published this anti-thesis, [[Russo-Georgian War|Russia invaded Georgia]] and began ever more anti-hegemonic policy, culminating with a full scale [[2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine|invasion of Ukraine]].
Gilpin argues further that by the global system, the more decisive a victory is after the "hegemonic war", the more stable the new system will be. He agrees with Paul Kennedy's claim of "imperialistic overstretch" being one of the reasons that hegemons fall. Gilpin adds that all hegemons inevitably fall because it is difficult to stay as hegemon. To exemplify this concept, if one were to walk into a weight room with robust men at their prime on one side of the room facing men who are working to reach the equivalent of the robust men, they will see that the working men grow muscle much faster than the already robust men. This is because they have more room to grow. It is harder for hegemons to "grow" when they have already grown and expanded so much.


=== Permanent hegemony ===
To ensure their preferences, the U.S. as the newest and current hegemon has created institutions for the system to represent their power structure.
The anti-hegemonic initiative of [[Vladimir Putin]], however, fell short. No major power joined him in the endeavor, international opposition was unanimous and his troops were forced to retreat on most fronts, holding only regions with pro-Russian majority as of 2023. Yet four years before Russia suffered the setback in Ukraine, Ostrovsky completed an advanced analysis of the present hegemonic stability. The latter analysis indicated that, despite the best efforts by Putin, the anti-hegemonic resistance in our world is incomparably weaker than in the ancient Roman and Chinese worlds, and the overall trend in our world is toward hegemonic stabilization. "At this point, he concludes, world history runs out of samples." World history knows stability of universal empires; it does not know hegemonic stability and hegemonic systems themselves were exceptional. But the real puzzle history poses to the HST is not why the American hegemony did not fall but rather why it did not evolve into empire and, for the first time in world history, produced hegemonic stability.<ref>Ostrovsky, Max, (2018). ''Military Globalization: Geography, Strategy, Weaponry'', (New York: Edwin Mellen Press), p 297-298.</ref>


==See also==
Eventually, Gilpin contends, a dissatisfied great power that approaches the power distribution, approaches the equivalence of the current hegemon will cause a new global war and the cycle repeats. Generally, the rising challenger does not go on to become the new hegemon as most of their resources have been depleted fighting the hegemon and do not have more to spare to instil their preferences. Instead, some theorists think, a state similar in culture and preferences to the old hegemon will assume new hegemon status. <ref>http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/204816.pdf?acceptTC=true&acceptTC=true&jpdConfirm=true</ref>
* [[Power transition theory]]
* [[Realism (international relations)]]


== References ==
== References ==
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==External links==
==External links==
* [http://www.irtheory.com/know.htm Summaries of International Relations Theories]
* [http://www.irtheory.com/know.htm Summaries of International Relations Theories]
*Assessment of the United States’ Impact on the United Nations While to Maintain Its Hegemonic Stability, [https://www.kureselsiyaset.org/assessment-of-the-united-states-impact-on-the-united-nations-while-to-maintain-its-hegemonic-stability/ KÜRESEL SİYASET MERKEZİ]
{{International relations theory}}


[[Category:International relations theory]]
[[Category:International relations theory]]
[[Category:Political realism]]
[[Category:Political realism]]
[[Category:Hegemony]]
[[Category:Kish (Sumer)]]
[[Category:Gilgamesh]]

Latest revision as of 13:01, 23 November 2024

Hegemonic stability theory (HST) is a theory of international relations, rooted in research from the fields of political science, economics, and history. HST indicates that the international system is more likely to remain stable when a single state is the dominant world power, or hegemon.[1] Thus, the end of hegemony diminishes the stability of the international system. As evidence for the stability of hegemony, proponents of HST frequently point to the Pax Britannica and Pax Americana, as well as the instability prior to World War I (when British hegemony was in decline) and the instability of the interwar period (when the American hegemon reduced its presence from world politics).[2][3]

The key mechanisms in hegemonic stability theory revolve around public goods provision: to resolve collective action problems regarding public goods, a powerful actor who is willing and able to shoulder a disproportionate share of public goods provision is needed.[4] Hegemonic stability may entail self-reinforcing cooperation, as it is in the interest of the hegemon to provide public goods and it is in interest of other states to maintain an international order from which they derive public goods.[4][5][6][7]

Early development

[edit]

Charles Kindleberger is one of the scholars most closely associated with HST; commentators such as Benjamin Cohen regard him as the theory's founder and most influential proponent.[8][9] In his 1973 book The World in Depression: 1929-1939, Kindleberger argued that the economic chaos between World War I and World War II that led to the Great Depression was partly attributable to the lack of a world leader with a dominant economy. Kindleberger's reasoning touched upon more than economics, however: the central idea behind HST suggests that the stability of the global system, in terms of politics, international law, and so on, relies on the hegemon to develop and enforce the rules of that system. Other key figures in the development of hegemonic stability theory include Robert Gilpin and Stephen Krasner.[10]

In his major work, Gilpin theorizes world history as imperial cycles until late modern times and the succession of hegemonies in late modern times when first Britain and later the United States stabilized the international system.[11] Gilpin opposes balancing and the balance-of-power theory. He contends that the system naturally goes toward equilibrium. From global war or "hegemonic war" emerges a new hegemon who creates and keeps the new world order with its own set of preferences. This is partly accomplished by providing public goods. In the case of the hegemony of the United States after 1945, there took place attempts at initialising a stable currency by means of the International Monetary Fund, the Bretton Woods system, establishment of the World Bank, security alliances (such as NATO), and democratisation.

Gilpin argues further that in the global system, the more decisive a victory is after the "hegemonic war", the more stable the new system will be. He agrees with Paul Kennedy's view of "imperialistic overstretch" as one of the reasons that hegemons fall. Gilpin adds that all hegemons inevitably fall because at a certain stage expansion exceeds benefits, distribution of power in the system shifts and other states rise and challenge the hegemon. Eventually, a dissatisfied great power that approaches the power of the current hegemon will cause a new global war and the cycle repeats.[12]

Robert Keohane coined the term "Hegemonic stability theory" in a 1980 article.[10] Keohane's 1984 book After Hegemony used insights from the new institutional economics to argue that the international system could remain stable in the absence of a hegemon, thus questioning hegemonic stability theory.[13] John Ruggie's work on embedded liberalism also challenged hegemonic stability theory. He argued that the post-WWII international order was not just held together by material power but through "legitimate social purpose" whereby governments created support for the international order through social policies that alleviated the adverse effects of globalization.[14][15] John Ikenberry argues that hegemony is not a precondition for international stability, pointing to path dependence and "stickiness" of institutions.[16][17]

Hegemonic attributes

[edit]

In order for a nation-state to rise to the level of hegemon, such a state must combine all or most of the following attributes:[according to whom?][18][19]

  • Superior military force is necessary for the ability to forge new international laws and organizations.
  • Insularity provides added security and the potential to project military forces, though in some cases hegemons have not been insular or peninsular. The United States of America, for instance, has become a virtual island. It has two massive seaboards, and its neighbors are long-standing allies, setting it apart from the rest of great powers. Nuclear weapons and superior air force add to its national security.
  • A large and growing economy. Usually, unrivaled supremacy in at least one leading economic or technological sector is necessary. Military and economic powers compose the capability to enforce the rules of the system.
  • The will to lead and to establish a hegemonic regime by enforcing the rules of the system. After World War I, the United States possessed the capacity to lead, but lacked the will to do so. Without the will to force stability on the international system, the United States missed an opportunity to prevent the onset of the Great Depression or World War II.
  • A hegemon must commit to the system, which needs to be perceived as mutually beneficial by other great powers and important state-actors.

Competing theories of hegemonic stability

[edit]

Research on hegemony can be divided into two schools of thought: the realist school and the systemic school. Each school can be further sub-divided. Two dominant theories have emerged from each school. What Robert Keohane first called the "theory of hegemonic stability",[20] joins A. F. K. Organski's Power Transition Theory as the two dominant approaches to the realist school of thought. Long Cycle Theory, espoused by George Modelski, and World Systems Theory, espoused by Immanuel Wallerstein, have emerged as the two dominant approaches to the systemic school of thought.[21]

Systemic school of thought

[edit]

According to Thomas J. McCormick, scholars and other experts on the systemic school define hegemony "as a single power's possession of 'simultaneous superior economic efficiency in production, trade and finance.'" Furthermore, a hegemon's superior position is considered the logical consequence of superior geography, technological innovation, ideology, superior resources, and other factors.[22]

Long cycle theory

[edit]

George Modelski, who presented his ideas in the book, Long Cycles in World Politics (1987), is the chief architect of long cycle theory. In a nutshell, long cycle theory describes the connection between war cycles, economic supremacy, and the political aspects of world leadership.

Long cycles, or long waves, offer interesting perspectives on global politics by permitting "the careful exploration of the ways in which world wars have recurred, and lead states such as Britain and the United States have succeeded each other in an orderly manner." Not to be confused with Simon Kuznets' idea of long-cycles, or long-swings, long cycles of global politics are patterns of past world politics.[23]

The long cycle, according to Dr. Dan Cox, is a period of time lasting approximately 70 to 100 years. At the end of that period, "the title of most powerful nation in the world switches hands.".[24] Modelski divides the long cycle into four phases. When periods of global war, which could last as much as one-fourth of the total long cycle, are factored in, the cycle can last from 87 to 122 years.[25]

Many traditional theories of international relations, including the other approaches to hegemony, believe that the baseline nature of the international system is anarchy.[26] Modelski's long cycle theory, however, states that war and other destabilizing events are a natural product of the long cycle and larger global system cycle. They are part of the living processes of the global polity and social order. Wars are "systemic decisions" that "punctuate the movement of the system at regular intervals." Because "world politics is not a random process of hit or miss, win or lose, depending on the luck of the draw or the brute strength of the contestants," anarchy simply doesn't play a role. After all, long cycles have provided, for the last five centuries, a means for the successive selection and operation of numerous world leaders.[27]

Modeslki used to believe that long cycles were a product of the modern period. He suggests that the five long cycles, which have taken place since about 1500, are each a part of a larger global system cycle, or the modern world system.

Under the terms of long cycle theory, five hegemonic long cycles have taken place, each strongly correlating to economic Kondratieff Waves (or K-Waves). The first hegemon would have been Portugal during the 16th century, then the Netherlands during the 17th century. Next, Great Britain served twice, first during the 18th century, then during the 19th century. The United States has been serving as hegemon since the end of World War II.

The traditional view of long cycle theory has evolved somewhat, as Modelski now suggests that Northern and Southern Sung China, Venice and Genoa were each the dominant economic powers during medieval long cycles. However, he does not classify any of these states as world powers. Only when Portugal gained hegemony after 1500 is that distinction made.[28]

Other views of hegemonic stability

[edit]

Neorealist interpretation

[edit]

Neorealists have been focusing on this theory recently, the main proponent of it being John J. Mearsheimer who is trying to incorporate it into 'offensive realism'.[29] In his book The Tragedy of Great Power Politics Mearsheimer outlines how the anarchic system that neorealists subscribe to (see Kenneth Waltz for original theory) creates power hungry states who will each attempt to install themselves as regional and global hegemons.[30] The system is created, shaped and maintained by coercion. The hegemon would begin to undermine the institution when it is not in their interests. With the decline of a hegemon, the system descends into instability.

Classical liberal interpretation

[edit]

It is motivated by enlightened self-interest; the hegemon takes on the costs because it is good for all actors, thereby creating stability in the system, which is also in the interests of all actors.

Neoliberal interpretation

[edit]

Neoliberals argue that the hegemon wishes to maintain its dominant position without paying enforcement costs, so it creates a system in which it can credibly limit the returns to power (loser doesn't lose all) and credibly commit to neither dominate nor abandon them. This is done through institutions, which are sticky, (hard to change, more convenient to continue using than to revamp.) These institutions favor the hegemon but provide protection and a stable world order for the rest of the world. The more open this world-order, the less likely that there will be a challenger.[31] With the decline of the hegemon, institutions don't automatically die, because they were constructed in a way that benefited all stakeholders; instead, they take on a life of their own (see regime theory).[32][33]

Criticism

[edit]

Keohane's 1984 book After Hegemony used insights from the new institutional economics to argue that the international system could remain stable in the absence of a hegemon, thus rebutting hegemonic stability theory.[34] Keohane showed that international cooperation could be sustained through repeated interactions, transparency, and monitoring.[35] These factors could reduce transaction costs and provide information about other states (for example, whether the states are cheating or contributing).[35] Duncan Snidal argues that international cooperation is sustainable even after hegemony because smaller states derive sufficient benefits to be willing to contribute towards international institutions.[36][35]

Using insights from historical institutionalism, John Ikenberry argues that the international institutions set up by the United States are sustainable due to feedback effects, whereby it is costly for actors to set up alternative institutions.[17][35] Ikenberry also argues that hegemonic stability theory fails to account for regime types, which is essential to understanding why democratic hegemons such as the United States created institutions during periods in which they were hegemons, whereas non-democratic hegemons in previous eras did not set up institutional orders when given the opportunity.[17] Consistent with hegemonic stability theory, Ikenberry argues that the ability to create institutions is partly due to power preponderance.[17]

Dominic Tierney argues that hegemonic stability theorists are wrong in assuming that unipolarity leads to a stable order. He argues that it is the contestation that compels the great power and other states to build international order.[37]

Maria Gavris has criticized HST for its underdeveloped conceptualization of hegemony.[38]

Post-Cold War period

[edit]

Theory

[edit]

On the "unipolar moment" in 1990, the leading expert on the world-systems theory, Christopher Chase-Dunn, linked the forthcoming period with the HST. He reminded that hegemonic rivalry led to World Wars and in future such a rivalry among core states is only likely if the US hegemony continues to decline. But the current situation of single superpower is eminently stable.[39]

To the mainstream International Relations (IR below), the unipolar world came as a surprise. Realists, shaped by “two World Wars and the Cold War, understood the differing logics of multipolar and bipolar systems, but apparently failed to envision a unipolar world because none of their works before the end of the Cold War accounts for it.”[40]

For several more years following the "unipolar moment", IR analysis overwhelmingly argued for instability and imminent collapse of the hegemonic order.[41][42] Mark Sheetz was one of the first IR scholars to explicitly link the post-Cold War order with the HST: The US strategy, he wrote in 1997, fits "the expectations of hegemonic stability theory more comfortably than do other Realist theories. The latter predict that efforts to preserve hegemony would be futile and counterproductive, but not so hegemonic stability theory."[43]

Only in 1999, came to light an article completely and explicitly devoted to the subject. William Wohlforth titled it "The stability of a unipolar world",[44] paraphrasing the 1964 title, "The stability of a bipolar world", by the founder of Neorealism, Kenneth Waltz.[45] Wohlforth stressed the theoretical lag: "[The] hegemonic theory has received little shrill in the debate over the nature of the post-Cold War international system. This omission is unwarranted, for the theory has simple and profound implications for the peacefulness of the post-Cold War international order that are backed up by a formidable body of scholarship."[46]

The first obstacle facing the IR research after the Cold War was mathematical - how many poles gives two minus one. There is no evidence the IR scholars collaborated with the department of mathematics and probably worked on their own. In 1997, Michael W. Doyle summarized six years of calculations: We declare that the new world order exists "and now we must ask what do we mean." Two poles minus one might give one, three, four, five and even zero poles. Doyle concluded with undefined number of "many" poles.[47]

The mathematical breakthrough occurred two years later in the above-mentioned work by Wohlforth: Two states measured up as polar powers in 1990. "One is gone. No new pole has appeared: 2 - 1 = 1. The system is unipolar."[48] The article by Wohlforth, according to Stephen Walt, broke the theoretical path.[49]

In the following decade, the IR research tentatively switched to the unipolar or hegemonic stability, which replaced the balance of power as the focus of intense debate among IR scholars.[50] Charles Kupchan, who since 1991 expects an imminent end to the US hegemony, in 2003 agreed that this hegemony causes the present peace and stability.[51]

Until the early 2000s, Jack S. Levy and William Thompson adhered to the main Realist paradigm that hegemonic stability is theoretically impossible because other states would counter-balance.[52][53] By the end of the decade, however, both engaged in search for the causes of the present hegemonic stability.[54] In 2009, the student and follower of Waltz, Christopher Layne, confessed: "As events transpires, however, the fate of earlier hegemons has not befallen the United States."[55] In the 2010s, more IR scholars accepted the hegemonic stability as a theory most fitting the post-Cold War period.[56]

Curiously, one of the classics of the HST, Gilpin, denied the existence of the post-Cold-War hegemony and never applied the theory to this period. In 2002, Gilpin referred to some scholars who define the present system as hegemonic. "Less sanguin observers," however, countered that the bipolar system was supplanted by "chaotic, multipolar world of five or more major powers."[57] The proclamation of the "new world order" he attributed to the end of the Gulf War in 1991,[58] though the proclamation is attested from 1990[59] and the Gulf War had been regarded as the first test to the already existing new world order.[60]

Application

[edit]

United States

[edit]

Although the Hegemonic stability theory is attributed to the 1973 work by Kindleberger and the Realist mainstream rejected it for three decades longer, several scholars since World War II had theorized about the US preponderance of power which is identical in its arguments to the hegemonic stability. Similar arguments ping-ponged in the literature about the American foreign policy until the 2017 Peace through strength promised by Donald Trump.[61]

Three scholars described how the US-led hegemonic system produces stability in the Twenty-First century: The United States makes its power safe for the world and in return the world agrees to live within the hegemonic system maintaining formal or informal alliances and open markets.[62] The United States has been influential in moving many countries towards embracing the free market through institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and World Bank (see Washington Consensus).[citation needed]

Curiously, at the peak of the 2003 anti-hegemonic crisis, the world public opinion remained highly pro-hegemonic and convinced in the hegemonic stability. Large majorities of people in most surveyed countries thought that the world would be a more dangerous place if there were a rival to the American superpower. 64% of the French, 70% of the Mexicans and 63% of the Jordanians thought this way.[63]

The US network of alliances created in the early Cold War remains intact in the post-Cold War period and NATO almost doubled in members. When NATO counted only 16 members, it was already described as the most successful alliance in history.[64] As of 2023, it counts 30 members. The exact number of US allies worldwide is undefined because there is no clear criteria for counting unofficial defense partnerships. Bradley A. Thayer counts 84;[65] Max Ostrovsky over 100.[66] 130 countries[67] or even more[68][69][70][71] host US bases. Most of these countries are either formal allies or informal defense partners.[72]

Fifteen years in the post-Cold War period, Thayer calculated the hegemonic stabilization: Of 192 countries, 84 are allied with America and they include almost all of the developed economies. That is a combined GDP ratio of almost 17 to 1, a big change from the Cold War when the same ratio was about 1.8 to 1. Never before in history had any country so many allies.[73] Ostrovsky outlined a political-economic rule which, he claims, has a very few exceptions: countries with the nominal per capita GDP above the world average formally or informally ally with the United States.[74]

These are not alliances in the Westphalian sense characterized by impermanence and power-balancing; rather it is a hegemonic system of the Roman kind. Most states of the world host the hegemonic bases, many of them partly cover expenses for running them ("host nation support"), integrate their strategic forces under the hegemonic command, contribute 1-2% of their GDP to the integrated forces, and tip military, economic and humanitarian contributions in case of the hegemonic campaigns worldwide. Actually, these states, some of them recent great powers, surrender their strategic sovereignty en masse in favor of the hegemonic stability.[75]

External balancing

[edit]

While the hegemonic bloc concentration is overwhelming, anti-hegemonic military alliances do not form. No power entangles itself in military alliance against the United States. "No counter-hegemonic coalition has taken shape, and none is on the horizon."[76] The only visible pattern to the relations between Moscow and Beijing since the late 1950s is that there is no pattern. There is no evidence that they want to transform their strategic partnership into a military alliance and much evidence to suggest that they do not.[77]

China

[edit]

The United States is still considered by most analysts to be at the top of the world, both economically and in terms of military strength.[78][79] With these abundant resources and power, the world remains "a single superpower world".[80] However, many analysts envisage the emergence of new giants which threaten the U.S. hegemony. These giants, they argue, create new power centers all over the world and the world becomes ever more multipolar. Of those new giants, the single greatest competitor of United States is China as it is growing rapidly with "no equal in modern history".[81] Historically, examples of hegemonic decline come in two prime sectors: the leading state's military and its economy.[82] Both arenas are crucial for the analysis of the shifting power structure.[83]

With the highest gross domestic product at purchasing power parity,[84] China poses a significant challenge to U.S. economic primacy especially with the expectation that U.S. national debt could explode to 717% of GDP by 2080 according to Congressional Budget office. Moreover, this debt is financed largely by China through the purchase of U.S. Treasury bonds. On the other hand, China's economic power, not limited to but including industrialization and modernization, is rapidly burgeoning with high consumption and increasing foreign investment.[85] As Global Trends 2025 points out, the rise of China and India to great power status will restore each to "the positions they held two centuries ago when China produced approximately 30 percent and India 15 percent of the world's wealth."[86]

By 2018, Michael Beckley counted hundreds of books and thousands of articles envisioning the decline of the US, the rise of China and the multipolar world, and outlined an element common to these works—they all relied on gross indicators of power, such as GDP or military spending. These are the same indicators that made China look like a superpower during its century of humiliation (1839-1911). They reflect large population but do not consider welfare costs—the expenses a nation pays to provide this population with food, health care, social security, police, administration and education. Deducting these costs from gross indicators would give net indicators. Beckley suggests considering GDP per capita, more precisely multiplying it by total GDP. According to this net indicator, China still lags far behind the US.[87]

Writing in 1992, Andrew L. Shapiro assured regarding the U.S.: With troops operating abroad in more than fifty-five countries, "a military force is extended so much that it nears a breaking point."[88] After three decades of "nearing a breaking point," the U.S administration approved a record–breaking peacetime national defense budget of $813 billion.[89] Meanwhile, Shapiro continued in 1992, China is taking advantage by industrializing its army using their wealth. China's military budget is increasing, and the troops are expanding. A decade later, Steven W. Mosher insisted that China is building up its armed forces "to break America's back in Asia and thus end America's reign as the sole superpower in the world."[90]

Regarding military development in China, by 2022, China was estimated to accumulate between 350 and 400 nuclear warheads, just exceeding Charles de Gaulle's force de frappe and 15 times short of the U.S. arsenal.[91] The disparity of the delivery means is even greater.[92] As of 2023, China has not yet introduced its first intercontinental bomber, the longest-range Chinese Xian H-6 bombers can only reach Guam.

As of 2023, China has two outdated Kuznezov-type aircraft carriers. When China purchased the first, analysts supposed that it would serve as a tourist attraction like Soviet carriers Kiev and Minsk used to.[93] The Chinese anti-hegemonic challenge is like horizon - never gets closer.

Furthermore, many argue that China has a symbiotic relationship with the United States. If the United States declines, it is likely that China also may be in jeopardy. John Gulick points out that China's prosperity is "deeply ensconced in the 'China produces and lends, the US borrows and spends' framework".[94] Economic interdependence of China derives from the fact that they are a producing state rather than a consuming state. China's economy is export heavy as its driving force lies in "export processing measures".[94] The export dependent structure could severely dampen economic growth if demand for Chinese exports is reduced by another economic crisis in the United States. Besides the economic interdependence, China might face additional barriers to its hegemonic aspirations, such as domestic political instability, environmental degradation, public health issues, and demographic trends.[95]

Russia

[edit]

More revisionist appeared Russia under Vladimir Putin. Repeatedly he addressed the international community with anti-hegemonic agenda, arguing that the post-Cold War hegemony is unstable: "After the dissolution of bipolarity on the planet, we no longer have stability." Key international institutions are ignored by the United States and its western allies. They use force against sovereign states. Instead of settling conflicts they contribute to their escalation, instead of democracy and freedom they support a very dubious public ranging from neo-fascists to Islamic radicals, and instead of stable states they produce chaos, outbreaks in violence and a series of upheavals. A "unilateral diktat" leads to instability.[96][97]

The Russian foreign policy under Putin steadily became more aggressive, culminating with the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. The United States responded with sanctions and military aid to Ukraine. This U.S. response was criticized by some officials and experts as appeasement. Timo S. Koster who served at NATO as Director of Defence Policy & Capabilities criticized: A massacre is taking place in Europe and the strongest military alliance in the world is staying out of it.[98] Philip Breedlove, a retired four-star U.S. Air Force general and a former SACEUR, said that the West have "ceded the initiative to the enemy."[99] No attempt was made by NATO to deter Moscow with the threat of military force, as expressed by another expert.[100][101] Nevertheless, the U.S. response, combined with similar measures by the NATO allies and the Ukrainian resistance, was enough to roll back the Russian troops on most fronts and, as of 2023, reduce the Russian conquests to the regions with pro-Russian majority.

Test against historical evidence

[edit]

Complications

[edit]

The first complication for testing the HST against history is the absence of a case to test. The world hegemony is unprecedented.[102] William Wohlforth emphasized that we are living in the world's first hegemonic system.[103] Even the leading Realist opponent of the HST agreed on the matter: A dominant power without rivals rising to challenge is a position without precedent.[104] Hence, Walt concluded in 2009, there is not yet consensus on the overall impact of hegemony. The phenomenon is recent and has yet to receive a sustained theoretical attention.[105]

Moreover, the historical IR research remains Eurocentric and Europe has not experienced pan-European hegemony since the fall of Rome. The world during the Pax Britannica was multipolar rather than hegemonic and the period is characterized by hegemonic rivalry rather than stability.[106] Earlier modern European powers named hegemonic in some works, such as the Netherlands, Spain and Portugal, were even less hegemonic than Britain. Gilpin noted that Portugal and the Netherlands only dominated trade.[107] Modern Europe before 1990 had never been hegemonic system, which by definition has only one unrivaled power.

A product of eurocentric research, the Hegemonic Stability Theory was as much theory about instability. In a cyclical pattern, the hegemonic stability would be followed by violent hegemonic power transition to rising competitors (Gilpin, Modelski, Organsky). Periods of expansion are followed by equilibrium which is “merely a temporary phenomenon in the continuing process of international political change.”[108] Organsky, having combined the Hegemonic Stability Theory with the Power transition theory, created a perfect oxymoron. Bound to the modern Europe, the IR research found dubious hegemons, drew from these cases the paradigm of imminent hegemonic fall and implied it to the United States:

One of the ironclad lesson of history is that great powers that seek hegemony are always opposed—and defeated—by the counterbalancing efforts of other states. Yet the prevailing belief among the American foreign policy community is that the United States is exempt from the fate of hegemons.[109][110][111]

Beyond modern Europe

[edit]

With the American hegemony counting its first decade (since 1990) and showing no signs of collapse in sight, several IR scholars supposed that to find something similar even on regional scale it is necessary to descend to pre-modern times and extend the scope beyond Europe. In 2007, two books devoted to pre-modern civilizations came to light. One was edited by Wohlforth with contributions from experts on several pre-modern civilizations.[112] One of the contributors was Victoria Tin-bor Hui, whose civilization (China) experienced centuries-long unipolar stability. The other book was by Max Ostrovsky,[113] who completed two degrees in world history and PhD in International Relations. This book became the first attempt of theory by a professional historian and at the same time the first IR research extensively based on primary sources.

Both works found that most civilizations most of time were unipolar and the European long balance of power was exceptional in world history. Victoria Tin-bor Hui and Ostrovsky explained it by the expanding nature of the European system, while hegemonic stability needs a geopolitically closed system.[114][115] The next complication, however, was the kind of unipolarity. Most of unipolar civilizations were universal empires rather than system-wide hegemonies. The former are distinct by formal rule, territorial conquest and annexation, and regular taxation. The team of Wohlforth disregarded this complication. Ostrovsky found in world history three system-wide hegemonies—Sumer, Qin in 364-221 BC and Rome in 189-63 BC.

Three known cases

[edit]

The first striking element is that system-wide hegemonies were rare occasions in world history. The second striking element is that all three known hegemonies were anything but stable. Ostrovsky tested the HST on the three known cases: The hegemon of Sumer, House of Kish, sent envoys to Gilgamesh. Gilgamesh addressed the assembly of warriors: "Let us not submit to the House of Kish, let us smite it with weapons!" The assembly wholeheartedly agreed. "At the word of the fighting men of his city his heart rejoiced, his spirit brightened." A battle was fought and the hegemon was defeated and imprisoned.[116][117] Hegemony is as old as history. According to the Sumerian King List, Kish established the hegemony yet before the Flood. The anti-hegemonic resistance dates to the same dawn of history too, recorded in one of the earliest literary legacies of mankind.

The hegemonic Qin did not produce anymore stability. The Warring States went more warring. Qin emerged victorious and hegemonic after a war in 364 BC. Shortly, almost all the rest of the Chinese world united into an anti-hegemonic alliance, called Vertical or Perpendicular, and at least once the whole Chinese world "united their wills and joined their forces to attack Qin."[118] "With a force of 1,000,000 soldiers drown from area ten times large than Qin, they beat upon the Pass [to the land of Qin] and pressed forward toward Qin."[119] The same dreadful scenario repeated itself several times. Massive anti-hegemonic alliances characterized the period.[120][121] As in Sumer, in the Warring-States China hegemony was bound with anti-hegemony. The Qin armies repeatedly crashed the anti-hegemonic alliances in at least 15 major campaigns[122][123] Eventually, Qin launched a universal conquest and established universal empire.

The contemporary to Qin Roman hegemony was more stable with longer periods of peace, but almost each generation the system experienced major wars. The last war against Macedonia (148 BC) and the last Punic War (146 BC) were wars of annexation. Three Mithridatic Wars (88-63 BC) were anti-hegemonic wars led by Pontus and similarly ended by annexation of Pontus and the Near East. In the course of these and other wars, Rome, like Qin, evolved from hegemony into universal empire.

"Balance of power, repeatedly remarked two proponents of hegemonic stability, predicts that states will try to prevent the rise of a hegemon; it tells us nothing about what will happen once a country establishes such a position," nor history yields such an implication.[124][125] History, however, yields. Rome and Qin were well established hegemons but were repeatedly counter-balanced by rival powers or coalitions until they conquered and annexed them.

Hegemonic stage

[edit]

Historic cases of system-wide hegemonies accord Balance of Power theory rather than the HST—anti-hegemonic balancing happened and on large scales, as Balance of Power predicts. The only difference is that counter-balancing did not lead to the restoration of balance in the system but in the opposite direction—the hegemonies prevailed and established universal empires. Hence, Ostrovsky concluded that the three cases - of Qin, Rome and the US - are analogous systemic transformations from warring states to hegemony to universal empire with the modern process being presently uncompleted.[126]

Remarkably, all three great powers, Rome, Qin and the US were on the edge of the contemporary civilization and geographically protected, Rome by sea, Qin by mountain ranges and the US by oceans. All three began by the policy of isolation using their natural barriers. Rome initially maintained the doctrine of "no foreign foot in Italy" and later of "no foreign foot in Europe;"[127] Qin began with analogous policy of no foreign foot within the passes.[128] And the US began with the policy of isolation and no foreign foot in the Americas. All three abandoned isolationism in favor of hegemony. Rome and Qin were the only cases in world history when great powers first established a system-wide hegemony and later universal empire. All other known universal empires were established directly out of the system of warring states and avoiding the hegemonic stage. Probably geographic isolation favors this particular hegemonic stage.

Earlier, Pentagon strategist, Edward Luttwak, turned into Roman historian and produced a famous research on the Roman hegemony.[129] Implicitly advocating hegemony for the United States, Luttwak argued that transforming hegemony into empire was Rome's fatal mistake. By contrast to empire, hegemony saves much power.[130]

Basing on the comparative analysis between Rome and Qin instead of the single case of Rome, Ostrovsky countered that the transformation of hegemony into empire is not always fatal mistake - China still exists. And in both cases the transformation resulted in a more stable order and "Golden Age." Replying on Luttwak's thesis of the "economy of force" by a hegemonic power, Ostrovsky suggested that it "naturally results in the economy of obedience by a ruled periphery."[131] A year after Ostrovsky published this anti-thesis, Russia invaded Georgia and began ever more anti-hegemonic policy, culminating with a full scale invasion of Ukraine.

Permanent hegemony

[edit]

The anti-hegemonic initiative of Vladimir Putin, however, fell short. No major power joined him in the endeavor, international opposition was unanimous and his troops were forced to retreat on most fronts, holding only regions with pro-Russian majority as of 2023. Yet four years before Russia suffered the setback in Ukraine, Ostrovsky completed an advanced analysis of the present hegemonic stability. The latter analysis indicated that, despite the best efforts by Putin, the anti-hegemonic resistance in our world is incomparably weaker than in the ancient Roman and Chinese worlds, and the overall trend in our world is toward hegemonic stabilization. "At this point, he concludes, world history runs out of samples." World history knows stability of universal empires; it does not know hegemonic stability and hegemonic systems themselves were exceptional. But the real puzzle history poses to the HST is not why the American hegemony did not fall but rather why it did not evolve into empire and, for the first time in world history, produced hegemonic stability.[132]

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
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