Timeline of the far future: Difference between revisions
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{{Short description|Scientific projections regarding the far future}} |
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{{Other uses|Timeline of the future (disambiguation){{!}}Timeline of the future}} |
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{{Redirect-several|dab=no|List of numbers|List of years|}} |
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[[File:Red Giant Earth warm.jpg|thumb|274x274px|alt=A dark gray and red sphere representing the Earth lies against a black background to the right of an orange circular object representing the Sun|What [[Earth]] might look like seven billion years from now, after the [[Sun]] has entered the [[red giant]] phase]] |
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{{Featured list}} |
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While scientific predictions of the future can never be absolutely certain,<ref>{{cite book |
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{{Pp-pc|small=yes}} |
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| author=Rescher, Nicholas |
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{{Use dmy dates|date=January 2021}} |
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| authorlink =Nicholas Rescher |
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{{CS1 config|display-authors=4}} |
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| title = Predicting the future: An introduction to the theory of forecasting |
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| date = 1998 |
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| publisher = State University of New York Press |
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| isbn = 0-7914-3553-9 |
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}}</ref> present understanding in various fields allows for the prediction of [[Far future|far future events]], if only in the broadest strokes. These fields include [[astrophysics]], which has revealed how [[planet]]s and [[star]]s form, interact, and die; [[particle physics]], which has revealed how matter behaves at the smallest scales; [[evolutionary biology]], which predicts how life will evolve over time; and [[plate tectonics]], which shows how continents shift over millennia. |
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[[File:Red Giant Earth warm.jpg|thumb|upright=1.4|alt= A dark gray and red sphere representing the Earth lies against a black background to the right of an orange circular object representing the Sun|Artist's concept of the [[Earth]] 5–7.5 billion years from now, when the [[Sun]] has become a [[red giant]]]] |
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All projections of the [[future of the Earth]], [[Future of the Solar System|the Solar System]], and [[Future of an expanding universe|the Universe]] must account for the [[second law of thermodynamics]], which states that [[entropy]], or a loss of the energy available to do work, must increase over time.<ref name="Nave" /> [[Star]]s eventually must exhaust their supply of [[hydrogen]] fuel and burn out. Close encounters gravitationally fling planets from their star systems, and star systems from galaxies.<ref name="five ages" /> Eventually, matter itself is expected to come under the influence of [[radioactive decay]], as even the most stable materials break apart into subatomic particles.<ref name="dying" /> Current data suggests that the [[Flat universe|Universe is flat]], and thus, will not [[Big Crunch|collapse in on itself]] after a finite time,<ref name="Komatsu" /> and the infinite future potentially allows for the occurrence of a number of massively improbable events, such as the formation of a [[Boltzmann brain]].<ref name="linde" /> |
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While the future cannot be predicted with certainty, present understanding in various scientific fields allows for the prediction of some far-future events, if only in the broadest outline.<ref name="NYT-20230502">{{cite news |last=Overbye |first=Dennis |author-link=Dennis Overbye |date=2 May 2023 |title=Who Will Have the Last Word on the Universe? – Modern science suggests that we and all our achievements and memories are destined to vanish like a dream. Is that sad or good? |work=[[The New York Times]] |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/02/science/end-of-universe.html |url-status=live |accessdate=2 May 2023 |archiveurl=https://archive.today/20230502123225/https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/02/science/end-of-universe.html |archivedate=2 May 2023}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=Deep Time Reckoning |url=https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262539265/deep-time-reckoning/ |access-date=2022-08-14 |website=MIT Press |language=en-US}}</ref><ref>{{cite book | last= Rescher|first=Nicholas | author-link = Nicholas Rescher | title = Predicting the future: An introduction to the theory of forecasting | date = 1998 | publisher = State University of New York Press | isbn = 978-0791435533 }}</ref><ref>{{cite journal |last1=Adams |first1=Fred C. |last2=Laughlin |first2=Gregory |title=A dying universe: the long-term fate and evolution of astrophysical objects |journal=Reviews of Modern Physics |date=1 April 1997 |volume=69 |issue=2 |pages=337–372 |doi=10.1103/RevModPhys.69.337 |arxiv=astro-ph/9701131 |bibcode=1997RvMP...69..337A |s2cid=12173790 |url=https://cds.cern.ch/record/318436/files/9701131.pdf |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180727015521/https://cds.cern.ch/record/318436/files/9701131.pdf |access-date=10 October 2021|archive-date=27 July 2018 |issn = 0034-6861 }}</ref> These fields include [[astrophysics]], which studies how [[planet]]s and [[star]]s form, interact and die; [[particle physics]], which has revealed how matter behaves at the smallest scales; [[evolutionary biology]], which studies how life evolves over time; [[plate tectonics]], which shows how continents shift over millennia; and [[sociology]], which examines how human societies and cultures evolve. |
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The timelines displayed here cover events from roughly [[List of millennia#Future|eight thousand years from now]]{{efn| name = time}} to the furthest reaches of future time. A number of alternate future events are listed to account for questions still unresolved, such as whether [[Human extinction|humans will become extinct]], whether [[proton decay|protons decay]], or whether Earth will survive the Sun's expansion into a [[red giant]]. |
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These timelines begin at the start of the 4th millennium in 3001 CE, and continue until the furthest and most remote reaches of future time. They include alternative future events that address unresolved scientific questions, such as whether [[Human extinction|humans will become extinct]], whether the Earth survives when the Sun expands to become a [[red giant]] and whether [[proton decay]] will be the eventual end of all matter in the universe. |
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==Key [[File:Key.svg|12px]]== |
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==Lists== |
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'''<span style="font-size:120%" id="Keys">Keys</span>''' |
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| style="background: #FFE4E1;" | [[File: |
| style="background: #FFE4E1;" | [[File:Psi (greek letter).svg|16px|alt=Particle physics|Particle physics]] |
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| [[Particle physics]] |
| [[Particle physics]] |
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| style="background: #e0ffff;" | [[File: |
| style="background: #e0ffff;" | [[File:Greek lc pi icon.svg|16px|alt=Mathematics|Mathematics]] |
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| [[Mathematics]] |
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| [[File:Simpleicons Interface user-male-black-silhouette.svg|16px|alt=Technology and culture|Technology and culture]] |
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| [[Technology]] and [[culture]] |
| [[Technology]] and [[culture]] |
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===Earth, the Solar System and the universe=== |
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<!-- PLEASE DO NOT ADD MATERIAL TO THIS LIST WITHOUT A VALID CITATION! --> |
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{{See also|Formation and evolution of the Solar System|List of future astronomical events}} |
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All projections of the [[future of Earth]], [[Future of the Solar System|the Solar System]] and [[Future of an expanding universe|the universe]] must account for the [[second law of thermodynamics]], which states that [[entropy]], or a loss of the energy available to do work, must rise over time.<ref name="Nave"/> Stars will eventually exhaust their supply of [[hydrogen]] fuel via fusion and burn out. The Sun will likely expand sufficiently to overwhelm most of the inner planets (Mercury, Venus, and possibly Earth) but not the giant planets, including Jupiter and Saturn. Afterwards, the Sun will be reduced to the size of a [[white dwarf]], and the outer planets and their moons will continue to orbit this diminutive solar remnant. This future situation may be similar to the white dwarf star [[MOA-2010-BLG-477L]] and the Jupiter-sized [[exoplanet]] orbiting it.<ref name="NAT-20211013">{{Cite journal |last1=Blackman |first1=J. W. |last2=Beaulieu |first2=J. P. |last3=Bennett |first3=D. P. |last4=Danielski |first4=C. |last5=Alard |first5=C. |last6=Cole |first6=A. A. |last7=Vandorou |first7=A. |last8=Ranc |first8=C. |last9=Terry |first9=S. K. |last10=Bhattacharya |last11=Bond |first11=I. |last12=Bachelet |first12=E. |last13=Veras |first13=D. |last14=Koshimoto |first14=N. |last15=Batista |first15=V. |date=13 October 2021 |title=A Jovian analogue orbiting a white dwarf star |url=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03869-6 |journal=[[Nature (journal)|Nature]] |volume=598 |issue=7880 |pages=272–275 |arxiv=2110.07934 |bibcode=2021Natur.598..272B |doi=10.1038/s41586-021-03869-6 |pmid=34646001 |s2cid=238860454 |access-date=14 October 2021 |first16=J. B. |last16=Marquette}}</ref><ref name="KO-20211013">{{Cite news |last1=Blackman |first1=Joshua |last2=Bennett |first2=David |last3=Beaulieu |first3=Jean-Philippe |date=13 October 2021 |title=A Crystal Ball Into Our Solar System's Future – Giant Gas Planet Orbiting a Dead Star Gives Glimpse Into the Predicted Aftermath of our Sun's Demise |url=https://keckobservatory.org/white-dwarf-system/ |access-date=14 October 2021 |work=[[Keck Observatory]]}}</ref><ref name="NYT-20211013">{{Cite news |last=Ferreira |first=Becky |date=13 October 2021 |title=Astronomers Found a Planet That Survived Its Star's Death – The Jupiter-size planet orbits a type of star called a white dwarf, and hints at what our solar system could be like when the Sun burns out. |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/13/science/white-dwarf-planet.html |url-access=limited |archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/20211228/https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/13/science/white-dwarf-planet.html |archive-date=2021-12-28 |access-date=14 October 2021 |work=[[The New York Times]]}}{{cbignore}}</ref> |
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Long after the death of the Solar System, physicists expect that matter itself will eventually disintegrate under the influence of [[radioactive decay]], as even the most stable materials break apart into subatomic particles.<ref name="dying"/> Current data suggests that the [[Shape of the universe#Universe with zero curvature|universe has a flat geometry]] (or very close to flat) and will therefore not [[Big Crunch|collapse in on itself]] after a finite time.<ref name="Komatsu"/> This infinite future could allow for the occurrence of massively improbable events, such as the formation of [[Boltzmann brain]]s.<ref name="linde"/> |
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! scope="col" | [[File:Key.svg| |
! scope="col" | [[File:Key.svg|16px|link=#Keys]] |
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! scope="col" | Years from now |
! scope="col" | {{nowrap|Years from now}} |
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! scope="col" | Event |
! scope="col" | Event |
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| style="background: |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| 1,000 |
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| Due to the [[Tidal acceleration|lunar tides decelerating the Earth's rotation]], the average length of a [[solar day]] will be {{frac|1|30}} [[SI]] second longer than it is today. To compensate, either a leap second will have to be added to the end of a day multiple times during each month, or one or more consecutive leap seconds will have to be added at the end of some or all months.<ref name="arxiv1106_3141"/> |
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| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| 1,100 |
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| As Earth's poles [[precess]], [[Gamma Cephei]] replaces [[Polaris]] as the northern [[pole star]].<ref>{{Cite web |last1=McClure |first1=Bruce |last2=Byrd |first2=Deborah |date=22 September 2021 |title=Gamma Cephei, aka Errai, a future North Star |url=https://earthsky.org/brightest-stars/gamma-cephei-errai-future-north-star/ |access-date=25 December 2021 |website=earthsky.org}}</ref> |
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| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
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| 10,000 |
| 10,000 |
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| If a failure of the [[Wilkes Subglacial Basin]] "ice plug" in the next few centuries were to endanger the [[East Antarctic Ice Sheet]], it |
| If a failure of the [[Wilkes Subglacial Basin]] "ice plug" in the next few centuries were to endanger the [[East Antarctic Ice Sheet]], it would take up to this long to melt completely. [[Sea level]]s would rise 3 to 4 metres.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Mengel |first1=M. |last2=Levermann |first2=A. |date=4 May 2014 |title=Ice plug prevents irreversible discharge from East Antarctica |journal=Nature Climate Change |volume=4 |issue=6 |pages=451–455 |bibcode=2014NatCC...4..451M |doi=10.1038/nclimate2226}}</ref> One of the potential [[long-term effects of global warming]], this is separate from the shorter-term threat to the [[West Antarctic Ice Sheet]]. |
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| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| 10,000 – 1 million <ref name="prob" group="note">This represents the time by which the event will most probably have happened. It may occur randomly at any time from the present.</ref> |
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| The [[red supergiant star]]s [[Betelgeuse]] and [[Antares]] will likely have exploded as [[supernova]]e. For a few months, the explosions should be easily visible on Earth in daylight.<ref name="hockey">{{Cite journal |last1=Hockey |first1=T. |last2=Trimble |first2=V. |year=2010 |title=Public reaction to a V = −12.5 supernova |journal=The Observatory |volume=130 |issue=3 |page=167 |bibcode=2010Obs...130..167H}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |date=26 December 2019 |title=A giant star is acting strange, and astronomers are buzzing |url=https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/12/betelgeuse-is-acting-strange-astronomers-are-buzzing-about-supernova/ |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210108042242/https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/12/betelgeuse-is-acting-strange-astronomers-are-buzzing-about-supernova/ |archive-date=8 January 2021 |access-date=15 March 2020 |work=National Geographic |language=en}}</ref><ref name="betel">{{Cite web |last=Sessions |first=Larry |date=29 July 2009 |title=Betelgeuse will explode someday |url=http://earthsky.org/brightest-stars/betelgeuse-will-explode-someday |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210523155715/https://earthsky.org/brightest-stars/betelgeuse-will-explode-someday/ |archive-date=23 May 2021 |access-date=16 November 2010 |publisher=EarthSky Communications, Inc}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Saio |first1=Hideyuki |last2=Nandal |first2=Devesh |last3=Meynet |first3=Georges |last4=Ekstöm |first4=Sylvia |date=2 June 2023 |title=The evolutionary stage of Betelgeuse inferred from its pulsation periods |journal=Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society |volume=526 |issue=2 |page=2765 |arxiv=2306.00287 |bibcode=2023MNRAS.526.2765S |doi=10.1093/mnras/stad2949|doi-access=free }}</ref><ref name="Neuhäuser_et_al_2022">{{Cite journal |last1=Neuhäuser |first1=R. |last2=Torres |first2=G. |last3=Mugrauer |first3=M. |last4=Neuhäuser |first4=D. L. |last5=Chapman |first5=J. |last6=Luge |first6=D. |last7=Cosci |first7=M. |date=July 2022 |title=Colour evolution of Betelgeuse and Antares over two millennia, derived from historical records, as a new constraint on mass and age |journal=Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society |volume=516 |issue=1 |pages=693–719 |arxiv=2207.04702 |bibcode=2022MNRAS.516..693N |doi=10.1093/mnras/stac1969|doi-access=free }}</ref> |
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| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| 11,700 |
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| As Earth's poles precess, [[Vega]], the [[List of brightest stars|fifth-brightest star in the sky]], becomes the northern [[pole star]].<ref>{{Cite web |last=Howell |first=Elizabeth |date=9 November 2018 |title=Vega: The North Star of the Past and the Future |url=https://www.space.com/21719-vega.html |access-date=25 December 2021 |website=Space.com |language=en}}</ref> Although Earth cycles through many different [[naked eye]] northern pole stars, Vega is the brightest. |
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| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| 11,000–15,000 |
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| By this point, halfway through Earth's precessional cycle, Earth's [[axial tilt]] will be mirrored, causing [[summer]] and [[winter]] to occur on opposite sides of Earth's orbit. This means that the seasons in the [[Southern Hemisphere]] will be less extreme than they are today, as it will be facing away from the Sun at Earth's [[perihelion]] and towards the Sun at [[aphelion]], while the seasons in the [[Northern Hemisphere]], which experiences more pronounced seasonal variation due to a higher percentage of land, will be more extreme.<ref name="plait">{{Cite book |last=Plait |first=Phil |author-link=Phil Plait |title=Bad Astronomy: Misconceptions and Misuses Revealed, from Astrology to the Moon Landing "Hoax" |title-link=Bad Astronomy: Misconceptions and Misuses Revealed, from Astrology to the Moon Landing "Hoax" |date=2002 |publisher=John Wiley and Sons |isbn=978-0-471-40976-2 |pages=[https://archive.org/details/badastronomymisc00plai_621/page/n65 55]–56}}</ref> |
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| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
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| 15,000 |
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| The [[Axial tilt#Long term|oscillating tilt]] of Earth's poles will move the [[North African Monsoon]] far enough north to change the climate of the [[Sahara]] back into a tropical one [[African humid period|such as it had 5,000–10,000 years ago]].<ref name="tropicalsahara1">{{Cite web |last=Mowat |first=Laura |date=14 July 2017 |title=Africa's desert to become lush green tropics as monsoons MOVE to Sahara, scientists say |url=https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/828144/Climate-change-Africa-Sahel-Sahara-region-monsoon-rainfall-drought |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210308053332/https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/828144/Climate-change-Africa-Sahel-Sahara-region-monsoon-rainfall-drought |archive-date=8 March 2021 |access-date=23 March 2018 |website=Daily Express |language=en}}</ref><ref name="tropicalsahara2">{{Cite web |date=23 December 2015 |title=Orbit: Earth's Extraordinary Journey |url=http://mymultiplesclerosis.co.uk/btbb/gilf-kebir-the-great-barrier-nick-drake-wadi-bakht/ |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180714131638/https://mymultiplesclerosis.co.uk/btbb/gilf-kebir-the-great-barrier-nick-drake-wadi-bakht/ |archive-date=14 July 2018 |access-date=23 March 2018 |website=ExptU}}</ref> |
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| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
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| 17,000<ref name="prob" group="note"/> |
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| The best-guess recurrence rate for a "civilization-threatening" [[supervolcanic]] eruption large enough to eject one teratonne (one trillion tonnes) of [[pyroclastic material]].<ref>{{Cite journal |date=30 November 2017 |title='Super-eruption' timing gets an update – and not in humanity's favour |url=https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-017-07777-6 |url-status=live |journal=Nature |language=en |volume=552 |issue=7683 |pages=8 |doi=10.1038/d41586-017-07777-6 |pmid=32080527 |s2cid=4461626 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210724104719/https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-017-07777-6 |archive-date=24 July 2021 |access-date=28 August 2020}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |title=Scientists predict a volcanic eruption that would destroy humanity could happen sooner than previously thought |url=https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/volcano-super-eruption-apocalypse-wipe-out-life-human-kind-timeline-how-long-a8082006.html |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201109034621/http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/volcano-super-eruption-apocalypse-wipe-out-life-human-kind-timeline-how-long-a8082006.html |archive-date=9 November 2020 |access-date=28 August 2020 |work=The Independent |language=en}}</ref> |
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| 25,000 |
| 25,000 |
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| [[Mars]]' [[Martian polar ice caps|northern polar ice cap]] could recede as Mars reaches a warming peak of the northern hemisphere during the c. 50,000-year [[perihelion precession]] aspect of its [[Milankovitch cycle]].<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Schorghofer |first=Norbert |date=23 September 2008 |title=Temperature response of Mars to Milankovitch cycles |journal=Geophysical Research Letters |volume=35 |issue=18 |page=L18201 |bibcode=2008GeoRL..3518201S |doi=10.1029/2008GL034954 |s2cid=16598911}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book |last=Beech |first=Martin |title=Terraforming: The Creating of Habitable Worlds |date=2009 |publisher=Springer |pages=138–142 |bibcode=2009tchw.book.....B}}</ref> |
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| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| 36,000 |
| 36,000 |
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| The small [[red dwarf]] [[Ross 248]] will pass within 3.024 light |
| The small [[red dwarf]] [[Ross 248]] will pass within 3.024 light-years of Earth, becoming the closest star to the Sun.<ref name="Matthews1993"/> It will recede after about 8,000 years, making first [[Alpha Centauri]] (again) and then [[Gliese 445]] the nearest stars<ref name="Matthews1993"/> ([[List of nearest stars and brown dwarfs#Distant future and past encounters|see timeline]]). |
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| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|alt=Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
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| 50,000 |
| 50,000 |
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| According to Berger and Loutre (2002), the current [[interglacial]] period will end,<ref name="Berger2002"/> sending the Earth back into a [[glacial period]] of the current [[ice age]], regardless of the effects of anthropogenic [[global warming]]. |
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However, according to more recent studies in 2016, anthropogenic climate change, if left unchecked, may delay this otherwise expected glacial period by as much as an additional 50,000 years, potentially skipping it entirely.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Human-made climate change suppresses the next ice age – Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research |url=https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/human-made-climate-change-suppresses-the-next-ice-age |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210107231215/https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/human-made-climate-change-suppresses-the-next-ice-age |archive-date=7 January 2021 |access-date=2020-10-21 |website=pik-potsdam.de}}</ref> |
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[[Niagara Falls]] will have eroded away the remaining 32 km to [[Lake Erie]], and ceased to exist.<ref name="Niagara Parks" /> |
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[[Niagara Falls]] will have eroded the remaining 32 km to [[Lake Erie]] and will therefore cease to exist.<ref name="Niagara Parks"/> |
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The many [[glacial lake]]s of the [[Canadian Shield]] will have been erased by [[post-glacial rebound]] and erosion.<ref>{{cite book|last=Bastedo|first=Jamie|title=Shield Country: The Life and Times of the Oldest Piece of the Planet|date=1994|publisher=Arctic Institute of North America of the University of Calgary|page=202}}</ref> |
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The many [[glacial lake]]s of the [[Canadian Shield]] will have been erased by [[post-glacial rebound]] and erosion.<ref>{{Cite book |last=Bastedo |first=Jamie |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=-KUfAQAAIAAJ |title=Shield Country: The Life and Times of the Oldest Piece of the Planet |date=1994 |publisher=Arctic Institute of North America of the University of Calgary |isbn=9780919034792 |series=Komatik Series, ISSN 0840-4488 |volume=4 |page=202 |access-date=15 March 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201103224359/https://books.google.com/books?id=-KUfAQAAIAAJ |archive-date=3 November 2020 |url-status=live}}</ref> |
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| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| 50,000 |
| 50,000 |
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| Due to lunar tides decelerating the Earth's rotation, a day on Earth is expected to be one [[International System of Units|SI]] second longer than it is today. To compensate, either a [[leap second]] will have to be added to the end of every day, or the length of the day will have to be officially lengthened by one SI second.<ref name="arxiv1106_3141"/> |
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| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
||
| 100,000 |
| 100,000 |
||
| The [[proper motion]] of stars across the [[celestial sphere]], which |
| The [[proper motion]] of stars across the [[celestial sphere]], which results from their movement through the [[Milky Way]], renders many of the [[constellation]]s unrecognizable.<ref name="Tapping 2005"/> |
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|- |
|- |
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| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
||
| 100,000 |
| 100,000<ref name="prob" group="note"/> |
||
| The [[hypergiant]] star [[VY Canis Majoris]] will |
| The [[red hypergiant]] star [[VY Canis Majoris]] will likely have exploded in a [[supernova]].<ref name="Monnier Tuthill Lopez 1999"/> |
||
|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: # |
| style="background: #CEFF00;" | [[File:Butterfly icon (Noun Project).svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Biology|Biology]] |
||
| 100,000{{efn| name = prob}} |
|||
| Earth will likely have undergone a [[supervolcanic]] eruption large enough to erupt 400 km<sup>3</sup> of [[magma]].<ref name="toba" /> |
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|- |
|||
| style="background: #CEFF00;" | [[File:Butterfly icon (Noun Project).svg|16px|alt=Biology|Biology]] |
|||
| 100,000 |
| 100,000 |
||
|Native North American [[earthworm]]s, such as [[Megascolecidae]], will have naturally spread north through the United States [[Upper Midwest]] to the |
| Native North American [[earthworm]]s, such as [[Megascolecidae]], will have naturally spread north through the United States [[Upper Midwest]] to the [[Canada–US border]], recovering from the [[Laurentide Ice Sheet]] glaciation (38°N to 49°N), assuming a migration rate of 10 metres per year, and that a possible renewed glaciation by this time has not prevented this.<ref>{{Cite book |last1=Schaetzl |first1=Randall J. |url=https://archive.org/details/soilsgenesisgeom00scha |title=Soils: Genesis and Geomorphology |last2=Anderson |first2=Sharon |date=2005 |publisher=Cambridge University Press |isbn=9781139443463 |page=[https://archive.org/details/soilsgenesisgeom00scha/page/n120 105] |url-access=limited}}</ref> (However, humans have already introduced non-native [[invasive earthworms of North America]] on a much shorter timescale, causing a shock to the regional [[ecosystem]].) |
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|- |
|- |
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| style="background: |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
||
| 100,000 – 10 million<ref name="prob" group="note"/> |
|||
| 100,000+ |
|||
| [[Cupid (moon)|Cupid]] and [[Belinda (moon)|Belinda]], moons of [[Uranus]], will likely have collided.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=French |first1=Robert S. |last2=Showalter |first2=Mark R. |date=August 2012 |title=Cupid is doomed: An analysis of the stability of the inner uranian satellites |journal=Icarus |volume=220 |issue=2 |pages=911–921 |arxiv=1408.2543 |bibcode=2012Icar..220..911F |doi=10.1016/j.icarus.2012.06.031 |s2cid=9708287}}</ref> |
|||
| As one of the [[long-term effects of global warming]], 10% of [[greenhouse gas|anthropogenic carbon dioxide]] will still remain in a stabilized atmosphere.<ref>{{Cite book |title=The Long Thaw: How Humans Are Changing the Next 100,000 Years of Earth's Climate |author=David Archer |date=2009 |page=123 |publisher=[[Princeton University Press]] |isbn=978-0-691-13654-7}}</ref> |
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| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|alt=Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
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| > 100,000 |
|||
| As one of the [[long-term effects of global warming]], ten percent of [[Greenhouse gas|anthropogenic carbon dioxide]] will still remain in a stabilized atmosphere.<ref>{{Cite book |last=Archer |first=David |url=https://archive.org/details/longthawhowhuman00arch_317 |title=The Long Thaw: How Humans Are Changing the Next 100,000 Years of Earth's Climate |date=2009 |publisher=[[Princeton University Press]] |isbn=978-0-691-13654-7 |page=[https://archive.org/details/longthawhowhuman00arch_317/page/n135 123] |url-access=limited}}</ref> |
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|- |
|||
| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
|||
| 250,000 |
| 250,000 |
||
| [[ |
| [[Kamaʻehuakanaloa Seamount|Kamaʻehuakanaloa]] (formerly Lōʻihi), the youngest volcano in the [[Hawaiian–Emperor seamount chain]], will rise above the surface of the ocean and become a new [[volcanic island]].<ref name="havo"/> |
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|- |
|- |
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| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
||
| {{Circa}} 300,000<ref name="prob" group="note"/> |
|||
| 500,000{{efn| name = prob}} |
|||
| At some point in the next few hundred thousand years, the [[Wolf–Rayet star]] [[WR 104]] may explode in a [[supernova]]. There is a small chance that WR 104 is spinning fast enough to produce a [[gamma-ray burst]] (GRB), and an even smaller chance that such a GRB could pose a threat to life on Earth.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Tuthill |first1=Peter |last2=Monnier |first2=John |last3=Lawrance |first3=Nicholas |last4=Danchi |first4=William |last5=Owocki |first5=Stan |last6=Gayley |first6=Kenneth |year=2008 |title=The Prototype Colliding-Wind Pinwheel WR 104 |journal=The Astrophysical Journal |volume=675 |pages=698–710 |arxiv=0712.2111 |bibcode=2008ApJ...675..698T |doi=10.1086/527286 |s2cid=119293391 |number=1}}</ref><ref><!-- this is a WP:RS due to tuthill being a subject-matter expert -->{{Cite web |last=Tuthill |first=Peter |title=WR 104: Technical Questions |url=http://www.physics.usyd.edu.au/~gekko/pinwheel/tech_faq.html |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180403160554/http://www.physics.usyd.edu.au/~gekko/pinwheel/tech_faq.html |archive-date=3 April 2018 |access-date=20 December 2015}}</ref> |
|||
| Earth will have likely been hit by a meteorite of roughly 1 km in diameter, [[Asteroid-impact avoidance|assuming it cannot be averted]].<ref name="Bostrom 2002" /> |
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|- |
|||
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
|||
| 500,000<ref name="prob" group="note"/> |
|||
| Earth will likely have been hit by an asteroid of roughly 1 km in diameter, [[Asteroid impact avoidance|assuming that it is not averted]].<ref name="Bostrom 2002"/> |
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|- |
|- |
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| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|alt=Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
||
| 500,000 |
| 500,000 |
||
| The rugged terrain of [[Badlands National Park]] in South Dakota will |
| The rugged terrain of [[Badlands National Park]] in [[South Dakota]] will have eroded completely.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Badlands National Park – Nature & Science – Geologic Formations |url=http://www.nps.gov/badl/naturescience/geologicformations.htm |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150215201841/http://www.nps.gov/badl/naturescience/geologicformations.htm |archive-date=15 February 2015 |access-date=21 May 2014}}</ref> |
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|- |
|- |
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| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|alt=Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
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| 1 million |
|||
| 950,000 |
|||
| [[Meteor Crater]], a large [[impact crater]] in Arizona considered the "freshest" of its kind, will have |
| [[Meteor Crater]], a large [[impact crater]] in [[Arizona]] considered the "freshest" of its kind, will have worn away.<ref>{{Cite book |last=Landstreet |first=John D. |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=Ads1AQAAIAAJ |title=Physical Processes in the Solar System: An introduction to the physics of asteroids, comets, moons and planets |date=2003 |publisher=Keenan & Darlington |isbn=9780973205107 |page=121 |access-date=15 March 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201028100029/https://books.google.com/books?id=Ads1AQAAIAAJ |archive-date=28 October 2020 |url-status=live}}</ref> |
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|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
||
| 1 million |
| 1 million<ref name="prob" group="note"/> |
||
|[[Desdemona (moon)|Desdemona]] and [[Cressida (moon)|Cressida]], moons of [[Uranus]], will likely have collided.<ref name="Uranus">{{Cite web |year=2017 |title=Uranus's colliding moons |url=http://www.astronomy.com/news/2017/09/uranus-colliding-moons |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210226103604/https://astronomy.com/news/2017/09/uranus-colliding-moons |archive-date=26 February 2021 |access-date=23 September 2017 |publisher=astronomy.com}}</ref> |
|||
| Earth will likely have undergone a [[supervolcanic]] eruption large enough to erupt 3,200 km<sup>3</sup> of magma, an event comparable to the [[Toba supereruption]] 75,000 years ago.<ref name="toba" /> |
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|- |
|- |
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| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| 1.29 ± 0.04 million |
|||
| 1 million{{efn| name = prob}} |
|||
| The star [[Gliese 710]] will pass as close as 0.051 [[parsec]]s ({{convert|0.1663|ly|AU|abbr=off|lk=on|disp=semicolon}})<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=de la Fuente Marcos |first1=Raúl |last2=de la Fuente Marcos |first2=Carlos |date=2020 |title=An Update on the Future Flyby of Gliese 710 to the Solar System Using Gaia EDR3: Slightly Closer and a Tad Later than Previous Estimates |journal=Research Notes of the AAS |volume=4 |issue=12 |page=222 |doi=10.3847/2515-5172/abd18d |doi-access=free}}</ref> to the Sun before moving away. This will gravitationally [[Perturbation (astronomy)|perturb]] members of the [[Oort cloud]], a halo of icy bodies orbiting at the edge of the Solar System, thereafter raising the likelihood of a cometary impact in the inner Solar System.<ref name="gliese"/> |
|||
| Highest estimated time until the [[red supergiant]] star [[Betelgeuse]] explodes in a [[supernova]]. The explosion is expected to be easily visible in daylight.<ref name="beteldeath" /><ref name="betel" /> |
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|- |
|- |
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| style="background: |
| style="background: #CEFF00;" | [[File:Butterfly icon (Noun Project).svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Biology|Biology]] |
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| 1.4 million |
|||
| The star [[Gliese 710]] will pass as close as 1.1 light years to the Sun before moving away. This may gravitationally [[Perturbation (astronomy)|perturb]] members of the [[Oort cloud]], a halo of icy bodies orbiting at the edge of the Solar System, thereafter increasing the likelihood of a cometary impact in the inner Solar System.<ref name="gliese" /> |
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|- |
|||
| style="background: #CEFF00;" | [[File:Butterfly icon (Noun Project).svg|16px|alt=Biology|Biology]] |
|||
| 2 million |
| 2 million |
||
| The estimated time for the full recovery of [[coral reef]] ecosystems from human-caused [[ocean acidification]] if such acidification goes unchecked; the recovery of marine ecosystems after the acidification event that occurred about 65 million years ago took a similar length of time.<ref>{{Cite book |last=Goldstein |first=Natalie |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=-uYkEBl6CWYC |title=Global Warming |date=2009 |publisher=Infobase Publishing |isbn=9780816067695 |page=53 |quote=The last time acidification on this scale occurred (about 65 mya) it took more than 2 million years for corals and other marine organisms to recover; some scientists today believe, optimistically, that it could take tens of thousands of years for the ocean to regain the chemistry it had in preindustrial times. |access-date=15 March 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201107194742/https://books.google.com/books?id=-uYkEBl6CWYC |archive-date=7 November 2020 |url-status=live}}</ref> |
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| Estimated time required for [[coral reef]] ecosystems to physically rebuild and biologically recover from current human-caused [[ocean acidification]].<ref>{{cite book|last=Goldstein|first=Natalie|title=Global Warming|date=2009|publisher=Infobase Publishing|page=53}}</ref> |
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|- |
|- |
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| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|alt=Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
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| 2 million+ |
| 2 million+ |
||
| The [[Grand Canyon]] will erode further, deepening slightly, but principally widening into a broad valley surrounding the [[Colorado River]].<ref>{{ |
| The [[Grand Canyon]] will erode further, deepening slightly, but principally widening into a broad valley surrounding the [[Colorado River]].<ref>{{Cite web |title=Grand Canyon – Geology – A dynamic place |url=https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/nature/grca-geology.htm |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210425063106/https://www.nps.gov/grca/learn/nature/grca-geology.htm |archive-date=25 April 2021 |access-date=11 October 2020 |website=Views of the National Parks |publisher=National Park Service}}</ref> |
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|- |
|- |
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| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| 2.7 million |
| 2.7 million |
||
| |
| The average orbital half-life of current [[Centaur (small Solar System body)|centaurs]], which are unstable because of gravitational interactions with the several [[outer planets]].<ref name="Horner2004a">{{Cite journal |last1=Horner |first1=J. |last2=Evans |first2=N. W. |last3=Bailey |first3=M. E. |date=2004 |title=Simulations of the Population of Centaurs I: The Bulk Statistics |journal=[[Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society]] |volume=354 |issue=3 |pages=798–810 |arxiv=astro-ph/0407400 |bibcode=2004MNRAS.354..798H |doi=10.1111/j.1365-2966.2004.08240.x |doi-access=free |s2cid=16002759}}</ref> See [[Centaur (small Solar System body)#Notable centaurs|predictions for notable centaurs]]. |
||
|last1=Horner |first1= J. |
|||
|last2=Evans|first2= N.W.|last3= Bailey|first3= M. E. |
|||
|title=Simulations of the Population of Centaurs I: The Bulk Statistics |
|||
|date=2004 |
|||
|arxiv=astro-ph/0407400 |
|||
|doi=10.1111/j.1365-2966.2004.08240.x |
|||
|journal=[[Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society]]|volume=354|issue=3|pages=798–810 |bibcode=2004MNRAS.354..798H}}</ref> See [[Centaur (minor planet)#Notable centaurs|predictions for notable centaurs]]. |
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|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| 3 million |
|||
| Due to tidal deceleration gradually slowing Earth's rotation, a day on Earth is expected to be one minute longer than it is today.<ref name="arxiv1106_3141"/> |
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|- |
|||
| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
|||
| 10 million |
| 10 million |
||
| The |
| The [[Red Sea]] will flood the widening [[East African Rift]] valley, causing a new ocean basin to divide the continent of [[Africa]]<ref name="rift"/> and the [[African Plate]] into the newly formed Nubian Plate and the [[Somali Plate]]. |
||
The [[Indian Plate]] will advance into [[Tibetan Plateau|Tibet]] by {{cvt|180|km}}. [[Nepal]]i territory, whose boundaries are defined by the [[Himalayas|Himalayan]] peaks and on the plains of [[India]], will cease to exist.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Bilham |first=Roger |date=November 2000 |title=NOVA Online {{!}} Everest {{!}} Birth of the Himalaya |url=https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/everest/earth/birth.html |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210619030805/https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/everest/earth/birth.html |archive-date=19 June 2021 |access-date=22 July 2021 |website=pbs.org}}</ref> |
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|- |
|- |
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| style="background: #CEFF00;" | [[File:Butterfly icon (Noun Project).svg|16px|alt=Biology|Biology]] |
| style="background: #CEFF00;" | [[File:Butterfly icon (Noun Project).svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Biology|Biology]] |
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| 10 million |
| 10 million |
||
| |
| The estimated time for full recovery of [[biodiversity]] after a potential [[Holocene extinction]], if it were on the scale of the five previous major [[extinction event]]s.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Kirchner |first1=James W. |author-link=James Kirchner |last2=Weil |first2=Anne |date=9 March 2000 |title=Delayed biological recovery from extinctions throughout the fossil record |journal=Nature |volume=404 |issue=6774 |pages=177–180 |bibcode=2000Natur.404..177K |doi=10.1038/35004564 |pmid=10724168 |s2cid=4428714}}</ref> |
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Even without a mass extinction, by this time most current species will have disappeared through the [[background extinction rate]], with many [[clade]]s gradually evolving into new forms.<ref>{{ |
Even without a mass extinction, by this time most current species will have disappeared through the [[background extinction rate]], with many [[clade]]s gradually evolving into new forms.<ref>{{Cite book |last=Wilson |first=Edward O. |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=FzPaB_6Pw4MC |title=The Diversity of Life |date=1999 |publisher=W.W. Norton & Company |isbn=9780393319408 |page=216 |access-date=15 March 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201004022434/https://books.google.com/books?id=FzPaB_6Pw4MC |archive-date=4 October 2020 |url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book |last=Wilson |first=Edward Osborne |author-link=Edward O. Wilson |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=VS7GeNorZE4C |title=The Diversity of Life |publisher=Penguin UK |year=1992 |isbn=9780141931739 |location=London, England |publication-date=2001 |language=en-uk |chapter=The Human Impact |access-date=15 March 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200801131847/https://books.google.com/books?id=VS7GeNorZE4C |archive-date=1 August 2020 |url-status=live}}</ref> |
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|- |
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| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics| |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| 50 million |
| 50 million |
||
| Maximum estimated time before the moon [[Phobos (moon)|Phobos]] collides with [[Mars]].<ref name= |
| Maximum estimated time before the moon [[Phobos (moon)|Phobos]] collides with [[Mars]].<ref name="Bills"/> |
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|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|alt=Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
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| 50 million |
| 50 million |
||
| According to [[Christopher Scotese]], the movement of the [[San Andreas Fault]] will cause the [[Gulf of California]] to flood into the California [[Central Valley (California)|Central Valley]]. This will form a new inland sea on the [[West Coast of the United States|West Coast]] of [[North America]], causing the current locations of Los Angeles, California, and San Francisco, California to merge.<ref name="scotese"/>{{Failed verification|date=May 2022}} The Californian coast will begin to be subducted into the [[Aleutian Trench]].<ref name="trench"/> |
|||
| The [[California]]n coast begins to be [[subducted]] into the [[Aleutian Trench]] due to its northward movement along the [[San Andreas Fault]].<ref name="trench" /> |
|||
Africa's collision with [[Eurasia]] |
Africa's collision with [[Eurasia]] will close the [[Mediterranean Basin]] and create a mountain range similar to the [[Himalayas]].<ref name="medi"/> |
||
The [[Appalachian Mountains]] peaks will largely |
The [[Appalachian Mountains]] peaks will largely wear away,<ref>{{Cite encyclopedia |year=2011 |title=Geology |encyclopedia=Encyclopedia of Appalachia |publisher=University of Tennessee Press |url=http://www.encyclopediaofappalachia.com/category.php?rec=2 |access-date=21 May 2014 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140521203455/http://www.encyclopediaofappalachia.com/category.php?rec=2 |archive-date=21 May 2014 |url-status=dead}}</ref> weathering at 5.7 [[Bubnoff unit]]s, although topography will actually rise as regional [[valley]]s deepen at twice this rate.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Hancock |first1=Gregory |last2=Kirwan |first2=Matthew |date=January 2007 |title=Summit erosion rates deduced from 10Be: Implications for relief production in the central Appalachians |url=http://pages.geo.wvu.edu/~kite/HancockKirwan2007SummitErosion.pdf |url-status=live |journal=Geology |volume=35 |issue=1 |page=89 |bibcode=2007Geo....35...89H |doi=10.1130/g23147a.1 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181223151411/http://pages.geo.wvu.edu/~kite/HancockKirwan2007SummitErosion.pdf |archive-date=23 December 2018 |access-date=21 May 2014}}</ref> |
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|- |
|- |
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| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|alt=Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
||
| |
| 50–60 million |
||
| The [[Canadian Rockies]] will |
| The [[Canadian Rockies]] will wear away to a plain, assuming a rate of 60 [[Bubnoff unit]]s.<ref>{{Cite book |last=Yorath |first=C. J. |title=Of rocks, mountains and Jasper: a visitor's guide to the geology of Jasper National Park |date=2017 |publisher=Dundurn Press |isbn=9781459736122 |page=30 |quote=[...] 'How long will the Rockies last?' [...] The numbers suggest that in about 50 to 60 million years the remaining mountains will be gone, and the park will be reduced to a rolling plain much like the Canadian prairies.}}</ref> The [[Southern Rockies]] in the [[United States]] are eroding at a somewhat slower rate.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Dethier |first1=David P. |last2=Ouimet |first2=W. |last3=Bierman |first3=P. R. |last4=Rood |first4=D. H. |last5=Balco |first5=G. |year=2014 |title=Basins and bedrock: Spatial variation in 10Be erosion rates and increasing relief in the southern Rocky Mountains, USA |url=http://noblegas.berkeley.edu/~balcs/pubs/Dethier_2014_Geology.pdf |url-status=live |journal=Geology |volume=42 |issue=2 |pages=167–170 |bibcode=2014Geo....42..167D |doi=10.1130/G34922.1 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181223151250/http://noblegas.berkeley.edu/~balcs/pubs/Dethier_2014_Geology.pdf |archive-date=23 December 2018 |access-date=22 May 2014}}</ref> |
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|- |
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| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|alt=Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
||
| |
| 50–400 million |
||
| |
| The estimated time for Earth to naturally replenish its [[fossil fuel]] reserves.<ref>{{Cite book |last=Patzek |first=Tad W. |author-link=Tad Patzek |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=WNszUml_Wd4C |title=Biofuels, Solar and Wind as Renewable Energy Systems: Benefits and Risks |date=2008 |publisher=Springer |isbn=9781402086533 |editor-last=Pimentel |editor-first=David |chapter=Can the Earth Deliver the Biomass-for-Fuel we Demand? |access-date=15 March 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200801114937/https://books.google.com/books?id=WNszUml_Wd4C |archive-date=1 August 2020 |url-status=live}}</ref> |
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|- |
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| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|alt=Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
||
| 80 million |
| 80 million |
||
| The [[Hawaii (island)|Big Island]] |
| The [[Hawaii (island)|Big Island]] will have become the last of the current [[Hawaiian Islands]] to sink beneath the surface of the ocean, while a more recently formed chain of "new Hawaiian Islands" will then have emerged in their place.<ref>{{Cite news |last=Perlman |first=David |author-link=David Perlman |date=14 October 2006 |title=Kiss that Hawaiian timeshare goodbye / Islands will sink in 80 million years |url=http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Kiss-that-Hawaiian-timeshare-goodbye-Islands-2468202.php |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190417122705/https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Kiss-that-Hawaiian-timeshare-goodbye-Islands-2468202.php |archive-date=17 April 2019 |access-date=21 May 2014 |work=San Francisco Chronicle}}</ref> |
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|- |
|- |
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| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| 100 million |
| 100 million<ref name="prob" group="note"/> |
||
| Earth will |
| Earth will likely have been hit by an asteroid comparable in size to the one that triggered the [[K–Pg extinction]] 66 million years ago, [[Asteroid impact avoidance|assuming this is not averted]].<ref name="kpg1"/> |
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|- |
|- |
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| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|alt=Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
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| 100 million |
| 100 million |
||
| According to the [[Pangaea Proxima]] model created by Christopher R. Scotese, a new subduction zone will open in the Atlantic Ocean, and the Americas will begin to converge back toward Africa.<ref name="scotese"/>{{Failed verification|date=May 2022}} |
|||
| Upper estimate for lifespan of the [[rings of Saturn]] in their current state.<ref>{{cite book|last=Lang|first=Kenneth R.|title=The Cambridge Guide to the Solar System|date=2003|publisher=Cambridge University Press|pages=328–329}}</ref> |
|||
Upper estimate for lifespan of the [[rings of Saturn]] in their current state.<ref>{{Cite book |last=Lang |first=Kenneth R. |url=https://archive.org/details/cambridgeguideto0000lang |title=The Cambridge Guide to the Solar System |date=2003 |publisher=Cambridge University Press |isbn=9780521813068 |page=[https://archive.org/details/cambridgeguideto0000lang/page/329 329] |quote=[...] all the rings should collapse [...] in about 100 million years. |url-access=registration}}</ref> |
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|- |
|- |
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| style="background: |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
||
| |
| 110 million |
||
| The Sun's luminosity will have increased by one percent.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Schröder |first1=K.-P. |last2=Smith |first2=Robert Connon |year=2008 |title=Distant future of the Sun and Earth revisited |journal=Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society |volume=386 |issue=1 |pages=155–163 |arxiv=0801.4031 |bibcode=2008MNRAS.386..155S |doi=10.1111/j.1365-2966.2008.13022.x |doi-access=free |s2cid=10073988}}</ref> |
|||
| Prediction of the orbits of the planets is impossible over greater time spans than this, due to the limitations of [[Lyapunov time]].<ref name="hayes07" /> |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
||
| 180 million |
|||
| Due to the gradual slowing of Earth's rotation, a day on Earth will be one hour longer than it is today.<ref name="arxiv1106_3141"/> |
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|- |
|||
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
|||
| 240 million |
| 240 million |
||
| From its present position, the [[Solar System]] completes [[Galactic year|one full orbit]] of the [[Galactic |
| From its present position, the [[Solar System]] completes [[Galactic year|one full orbit]] of the [[Galactic Center]].<ref name="galyear"/> |
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|- |
|- |
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| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|alt=Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
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| 250 million |
| 250 million |
||
|According to Christopher R. Scotese, due to the northward movement of the West Coast of North America, the coast of [[California]] will collide with [[Alaska]].<ref name="scotese"/>{{Failed verification|date=May 2022}} |
|||
| All the continents on Earth may fuse into a [[supercontinent]]. Three potential arrangements of this configuration have been dubbed [[Amasia (continent)|Amasia]], [[Novopangaea]], and [[Pangaea Ultima]].<ref name="scotese" /><ref name="Williams Nield 2007" /> |
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|- |
|- |
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| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|alt=Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
||
| |
| 250–350 million |
||
| All the continents on Earth may fuse into a [[supercontinent]].<ref name="scotese"/><ref name="Williams Nield 2007"/> Four potential arrangements of this configuration have been dubbed [[Amasia (continent)|Amasia]], [[Novopangaea]], [[Pangaea Proxima]] and [[Aurica (supercontinent)|Aurica]]. This will likely result in a glacial period, lowering sea levels and increasing oxygen levels, further lowering global temperatures.<ref>{{Citation |last1=Calkin |first1=P. E. |title=Past glacial environments: sediments, forms, and techniques |date=1996 |volume=2 |pages=9–75 |postscript=. |editor-last=Menzies |editor-first=John |chapter=Global glaciation chronologies and causes of glaciation |publisher=Butterworth-Heinemann |isbn=978-0-7506-2352-0 |last2=Young |first2=G. M.}}</ref><ref name="PerryRussel1997">{{Cite book |last1=Perry |first1=Perry |title=Applied climatology : principles and practice |last2=Russel |first2=Thompson |publisher=Routledge |year=1997 |isbn=9780415141000 |location=London, England |pages=127–128}}</ref> |
|||
| The supercontinent (Pangaea Ultima, Novopangaea, or Amasia) will have likely rifted apart.<ref name="Williams Nield 2007" /> |
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|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: |
| style="background: #CEFF00;" | [[File:Butterfly icon (Noun Project).svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Biology|Biology]] |
||
| |
| > 250 million |
||
|The supercontinent's formation, thanks to a combination of continentality increasing distance from the ocean, an increase in volcanic activity resulting in atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> at double current levels, increased interspecific competition, and a 2.5 percent increase in [[solar flux]], is likely to trigger an extinction event comparable to the [[Great Dying]] 250 million years ago. [[Mammals]] in particular are unlikely to survive.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Farnsworth |first1=Alexander |last2=Lo |first2=Y. T. Eunice |last3=Valdes |first3=Paul J. |last4=Buzan |first4=Jonathan R. |last5=Mills |first5=Benjamin J. W. |last6=Merdith |first6=Andrew S. |last7=Scotese |first7=Christopher R. |last8=Wakeford |first8=Hannah R. |date=25 September 2023 |title=Climate extremes likely to drive land mammal extinction during next supercontinent assembly |url=https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/201952/16/s41561-023-01259-3.pdf |journal=Nature Geoscience |volume=16 |issue=10 |pages=901–908 |doi=10.1038/s41561-023-01259-3|bibcode=2023NatGe..16..901F }}</ref><ref name="swansong2">{{Cite journal |last1=O'Malley-James, Jack T. |last2=Greaves, Jane S. |last3=Raven, John A. |last4=Cockell, Charles S. |year=2014 |title=Swansong Biosphere II: The final signs of life on terrestrial planets near the end of their habitable lifetimes |journal=International Journal of Astrobiology |volume=13 |issue=3 |pages=229–243 |arxiv=1310.4841 |bibcode=2014IJAsB..13..229O |doi=10.1017/S1473550413000426 |s2cid=119252386}}</ref> |
|||
| Estimated time until a [[gamma ray burst]], or massive, hyperenergetic supernova, occurs within 6,500 light-years of Earth; close enough for its rays to affect Earth's [[ozone layer]] and potentially trigger a [[mass extinction]], assuming the hypothesis is correct that a previous such explosion triggered the [[Ordovician–Silurian extinction event]]. However, the supernova would have to be precisely oriented relative to Earth to have any negative effect.<ref name="natgeo" /> |
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|- |
|- |
||
| |
|style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
||
| |
| 300 million |
||
| |
| Due to a shift in the equatorial [[Hadley cell]]s to roughly 40° north and south, the amount of arid land will increase by 25%.<ref name="swansong2"/> |
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|- |
|- |
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| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|alt=Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
||
| |
| 300–600 million |
||
| The estimated time for [[Venus]]'s mantle temperature to reach its maximum. Then, over a period of about 100 million years, major subduction occurs and the crust is recycled.<ref name="Strom1994">{{Cite journal |last1=Strom |first1=Robert G. |last2=Schaber, Gerald G. |last3=Dawson, Douglas D. |date=25 May 1994 |title=The global resurfacing of Venus |url=https://zenodo.org/record/1231347 |url-status=live |journal=[[Journal of Geophysical Research]] |volume=99 |issue=E5 |pages=10899–10926 |bibcode=1994JGR....9910899S |doi=10.1029/94JE00388 |s2cid=127759323 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200916233329/https://zenodo.org/record/1231347 |archive-date=16 September 2020 |access-date=6 September 2018}}</ref> |
|||
| The Sun's increasing luminosity begins to disrupt the [[carbonate–silicate cycle]]; higher luminosity increases [[weathering]] of surface rocks, which traps [[carbon dioxide]] in the ground as carbonate. As water evaporates from the Earth's surface, rocks harden, causing [[plate tectonics]] to slow and eventually stop. Without volcanoes to recycle carbon into the Earth's atmosphere, carbon dioxide levels begin to fall.<ref name=swansong>{{cite journal|title=Swansong Biospheres: Refuges for life and novel microbial biospheres on terrestrial planets near the end of their habitable lifetimes|journal= International Journal of Astrobiology|volume= 12|issue= 2|pages= 99|author= O'Malley-James, Jack T.|author2= Greaves, Jane S.|author3= Raven, John A.|author4= Cockell, Charles S.|date=2012 |arxiv= 1210.5721|bibcode= 2013IJAsB..12...99O|doi= 10.1017/S147355041200047X}}</ref> By this time, carbon dioxide levels will fall to the point at which [[C3 carbon fixation|C3 photosynthesis]] is no longer possible. All plants that utilize C3 photosynthesis (~99 percent of present-day species) will die.<ref name="Heath Doyle 2009" /> |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|alt=Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
||
| |
| 350 million |
||
| According to the extroversion model first developed by [[Paul F. Hoffman]], subduction ceases in the [[Pacific Ocean]] Basin.<ref name="Williams Nield 2007"/><ref>{{Cite journal |last=Hoffman |first=Paul F. |date=November 1992 |title=Rodinia to Gondwanaland to Pangea to Amasia: alternating kinematics of supercontinental fusion |url=https://journals.lib.unb.ca/index.php/ag/article/view/1870/2234 |journal=Atlantic Geology |volume=28 |issue=3 |pages=284 |doi=10.4138/1870 |doi-access=free}}</ref> |
|||
| Carbon dioxide levels fall to the point at which [[C4 carbon fixation|C4 photosynthesis]] is no longer possible.<ref name="Heath Doyle 2009" /> Free oxygen and ozone disappear from the atmosphere. Multicellular life dies out.<ref name="bd2_6_1665" /> |
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|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|alt=Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
||
| 400–500 million |
|||
| 1 billion{{efn| name = shortscale}} |
|||
| The supercontinent (Pangaea Proxima, Novopangaea, Amasia, or Aurica) will likely have rifted apart.<ref name="Williams Nield 2007"/> This will likely result in higher global temperatures, similar to the [[Cretaceous]] period.<ref name="PerryRussel1997"/> |
|||
| The Sun's luminosity has increased by 10 percent, causing Earth's surface temperatures to reach an average of ~320 [[Kelvin (unit)|K]] (47 °C, 116 °F). The atmosphere will become a "moist greenhouse", resulting in a runaway evaporation of the oceans.<ref name="mnras386_1" /> Pockets of water may still be present at the poles, allowing abodes for simple life.<ref name="abode" /><ref name="pressure" /> |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
||
| 500 million<ref name="prob" group="note"/> |
|||
| 1.3 billion |
|||
| The estimated time until a [[gamma-ray burst]], or massive, hyperenergetic supernova, occurs within 6,500 light-years of Earth; close enough for its rays to affect Earth's [[ozone layer]] and potentially trigger a [[mass extinction]], assuming the hypothesis is correct that a previous such explosion triggered the [[Ordovician–Silurian extinction event]]. However, the supernova would have to be precisely oriented relative to Earth to have such effect.<ref name="natgeo"/> |
|||
| [[Eukaryotic]] life dies out due to carbon dioxide starvation. Only [[prokaryotes]] remain.<ref name="bd2_6_1665" /> |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
||
| 600 million |
|||
| 1.5–1.6 billion |
|||
| [[Tidal acceleration]] moves the [[Moon]] far enough from Earth that total [[solar eclipse]]s are no longer possible.<ref name="600mil"/> |
|||
|The Sun's increasing luminosity causes its circumstellar [[habitable zone]] to move outwards; as [[carbon dioxide]] increases in [[Mars]]'s atmosphere, its surface temperature rises to levels akin to Earth during the [[ice age]].<ref name="bd2_6_1665" /><ref name="mars" /> |
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|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|alt=Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
||
| 500–600 million |
|||
| 2.3 billion |
|||
| The Sun's increasing luminosity begins to disrupt the [[carbonate–silicate cycle]]; higher luminosity increases [[weathering]] of surface rocks, which traps [[carbon dioxide]] in the ground as carbonate. As water evaporates from the Earth's surface, rocks harden, causing [[plate tectonics]] to slow and eventually stop once the oceans evaporate completely. With less volcanism to recycle carbon into the Earth's atmosphere, carbon dioxide levels begin to fall.<ref name="swansong">{{Cite journal |last1=O'Malley-James, Jack T. |last2=Greaves, Jane S. |last3=Raven, John A. |last4=Cockell, Charles S. |year=2012 |title=Swansong Biospheres: Refuges for life and novel microbial biospheres on terrestrial planets near the end of their habitable lifetimes |journal=International Journal of Astrobiology |volume=12 |issue=2 |pages=99–112 |arxiv=1210.5721 |bibcode=2013IJAsB..12...99O |doi=10.1017/S147355041200047X |s2cid=73722450}}</ref> By this time, carbon dioxide levels will fall to the point at which [[C3 carbon fixation|{{C3}} photosynthesis]] is no longer possible. All plants that use {{C3}} photosynthesis (roughly 99 percent of present-day species) will die.<ref name="Heath Doyle 2009"/> The extinction of {{C3}} plant life is likely to be a long-term decline rather than a sharp drop. It is likely that plant groups will die one by one well before the critical carbon dioxide level is reached. The first plants to disappear will be {{C3}} [[herbaceous]] plants, followed by [[deciduous]] forests, [[evergreen]] broad-leaf forests, and finally evergreen [[conifer]]s.<ref name="swansong2"/> |
|||
| The Earth's [[outer core]] freezes, if the [[inner core]] continues to grow at its current rate of 1 mm per year.<ref name="ng4_264" /><ref name="compo" /> Without its liquid outer core, the [[Earth's magnetic field]] shuts down,<ref name="magnet" /> and charged particles emanating from the [[Sun]] gradually deplete the atmosphere.<ref>{{cite journal |title=Solar wind hammers the ozone layer |journal=News@nature |author=Quirin Shlermeler|date=3 March 2005 | doi=10.1038/news050228-12 |ref=harv}}</ref> |
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|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: # |
| style="background: #CEFF00;" | [[File:Butterfly icon (Noun Project).svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Biology|Biology]] |
||
| 500–800 million |
|||
| 2.8 billion |
|||
| As Earth begins to warm, and carbon dioxide levels fall, plants—and, by extension, animals—could survive longer by evolving other strategies such as requiring less carbon dioxide for photosynthetic processes, becoming [[Carnivorous plant|carnivorous]], adapting to [[desiccation]], or [[Myco-heterotrophy|associating with fungi]]. These adaptations are likely to appear near the beginning of the moist greenhouse.<ref name="swansong2"/> The decrease in [[plant life]] will result in less [[oxygen]] in the [[atmosphere]], allowing for more [[DNA]]-damaging [[ultraviolet radiation]] to reach the surface. The rising temperatures will increase chemical reactions in the atmosphere, further lowering oxygen levels. Plant and animal communities become increasingly sparse and isolated as the Earth becomes more barren. Flying animals would be better off because of their ability to travel large distances looking for cooler temperatures.<ref name="WardBrownlee2003">{{Cite book |last1=Ward |first1=Peter D. |title=Rare earth : why complex life is uncommon in the universe |last2=Brownlee |first2=Donald |date=2003 |publisher=Copernicus |isbn=978-0387952895 |location=New York |pages=117–128}}</ref> Many animals may be driven to the poles or possibly underground. These creatures would become active during the [[polar night]] and [[aestivate]] during the [[polar day]] due to the intense heat and radiation. Much of the land would become a barren desert, and plants and animals would primarily be found in the oceans.<ref name="WardBrownlee2003"/> |
|||
| Earth's surface temperature, even at the poles, reaches an average of ~420 K (147 °C, 296 °F). At this point, life, now reduced to unicellular colonies in isolated, scattered microenvironments such as high-altitude lakes or subsurface caves, will completely die out.<ref name=swansong/><ref name="global1" />{{efn|name=ejection/capture}} |
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|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: |
| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
||
| 500–800 million |
|||
| 3 billion |
|||
| As pointed out by Peter Ward and Donald Brownlee in their book ''[[The Life and Death of Planet Earth]]'', according to NASA Ames scientist Kevin Zahnle, this is the earliest time for plate tectonics to eventually stop, due to the gradual cooling of the Earth's core, which could potentially turn the Earth back into a waterworld. This would, in turn, likely cause the extinction of animal life on Earth.<ref name="WardBrownlee2003"/> |
|||
| [[Median]] point at which the Moon's increasing distance from the Earth lessens its stabilising effect on the Earth's [[axial tilt]]. As a consequence, Earth's [[true polar wander]] becomes chaotic and extreme.<ref name="wander" /> |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: |
| style="background: #CEFF00;" | [[File:Butterfly icon (Noun Project).svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Biology|Biology]] |
||
| 800–900 million |
|||
| 3.3 billion |
|||
| Carbon dioxide levels will fall to the point at which [[C4 carbon fixation|{{C4}} photosynthesis]] is no longer possible.<ref name="Heath Doyle 2009"/> Without plant life to recycle oxygen in the atmosphere, free oxygen and the ozone layer will disappear from the atmosphere allowing for intense levels of deadly UV light to reach the surface. Animals in food chains that were dependent on live plants will disappear shortly afterward.<ref name="swansong2"/> At most, animal life could survive about 3 to 100 million years after plant life dies out. Just like plants, the extinction of animals will likely coincide with the loss of plants. It will start with large animals, then smaller animals and flying creatures, then amphibians, followed by reptiles and, finally, invertebrates.<ref name="swansong"/> In the book ''The Life and Death of Planet Earth'', authors [[Peter D. Ward]] and [[Donald Brownlee]] state that some animal life may be able to survive in the oceans. Eventually, however, all multicellular life will die out.<ref name="bd2_6_1665"/> The first sea animals to go extinct will be large fish, followed by small fish and then, finally, invertebrates.<ref name="swansong"/> The last animals to go extinct will be animals that do not depend on living plants, such as [[termite]]s, or those near [[hydrothermal vent]]s, such as [[worm]]s of the genus ''[[Riftia]]''.<ref name="swansong2"/> The only life left on the Earth after this will be single-celled organisms. |
|||
| 1 percent chance that [[Mercury (planet)|Mercury]]'s orbit may become so [[orbital eccentricity|eccentric]] as to collide with [[Venus]], sending the inner Solar System into chaos and potentially leading to a planetary collision with Earth.<ref name="chaos" /> |
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|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|alt=Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
||
| 1 billion<ref name="shortscale" group="note">Units are [[Long and short scales#Short scale|short scale]].</ref> |
|||
| 3.5 billion |
|||
| 27% of the ocean's mass will have been [[subducted]] into the mantle. If this were to continue uninterrupted, it would reach an equilibrium where 65% of present-day surface water would be subducted.<ref name="hess5_4_569"/> |
|||
| Surface conditions on Earth are comparable to those on Venus today.<ref name="venus" /> |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
||
| |
| 1 billion |
||
|By this point, the [[Sagittarius Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxy]] will have been completely consumed by the [[Milky Way]].<ref name="Nature">{{Cite journal |last1=Antoja |first1=T. |last2=Helmi |first2=A. |last3=Romero-Gómez |first3=M. |last4=Katz |first4=D. |last5=Babusiaux |first5=C. |last6=Drimmel |first6=R. |last7=Evans |first7=D. W. |last8=Figueras |first8=F. |last9=Poggio |first9=E. |last10=Reylé |first10=C. |last11=Robin |first11=A. C. |last12=Seabroke |first12=G. |last13=Soubiran |first13=C. |date=2018-09-19 |title=A dynamically young and perturbed Milky Way disk |url=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0510-7 |journal=[[Nature (journal)|Nature]] |volume=561 |issue=7723 |pages=360–362 |arxiv=1804.10196 |bibcode=2018Natur.561..360A |doi=10.1038/s41586-018-0510-7 |pmid=30232428 |s2cid=52298687 |df=dmy-all}}</ref> |
|||
| [[Neptune]]'s moon [[Triton (moon)|Triton]] falls through the planet's [[Roche limit]], potentially disintegrating into a [[planetary ring]] system similar to [[Rings of Saturn|Saturn's]].<ref name="triton" /> |
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|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: |
| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
||
| |
| 1.1 billion |
||
| The Sun's luminosity will have increased by 10%, causing Earth's surface temperatures to reach an average of around {{cvt|320|K|C F}}. The atmosphere will become a "moist greenhouse", resulting in a runaway evaporation of the oceans.<ref name="swansong"/><ref name="mnras386_1"/> This would cause [[plate tectonics]] to stop completely, if not already stopped before this time.{{sfn|Brownlee|2010|p=95}} Pockets of water may still be present at the poles, allowing abodes for simple life.{{sfn|Brownlee|2010|p=[https://books.google.com/books?id=M8NwTYEl0ngC&pg=PA79 79]}}<ref name="pressure"/> |
|||
| [[Median]] point by which the [[Andromeda Galaxy]] will have [[Andromeda–Milky Way collision|collided]] with the [[Milky Way]], which will thereafter merge to form a galaxy dubbed "[[Milkomeda]]".<ref name="cox" /> The planets of the Solar System are expected to be relatively unaffected by this collision.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hubble/science/milky-way-collide.html |author=NASA|title=NASA's Hubble Shows Milky Way is Destined for Head-On Collision |work=NASA |date=2012-05-31 |accessdate=2012-10-13}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|last=Dowd|first=Maureen|title=Andromeda Is Coming!|url=http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/30/opinion/dowd-andromeda-is-coming.html|accessdate=9 January 2014|newspaper=New York Times|date=29 May 2012|quote=[NASA's David Morrison] explained that the [[Andromeda-Milky Way collision]] would just be two great big fuzzy balls of stars and mostly empty space passing through each other harmlessly over the course of millions of years.}}</ref><ref name="milk"/> |
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|- |
|- |
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| style="background: |
| style="background: #CEFF00;" | [[File:Butterfly icon (Noun Project).svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Biology|Biology]] |
||
| |
| 1.2 billion |
||
| High estimate until all plant life dies out, assuming some form of photosynthesis is possible despite extremely low carbon dioxide levels. If this is possible, rising temperatures will make any animal life unsustainable from this point on.<ref name="nature">{{Cite journal |last1=Caldeira |first1=Ken |last2=Kasting |first2=James F. |year=1992 |title=The life span of the biosphere revisited |journal=Nature |volume=360 |issue=6406 |pages=721–723 |bibcode=1992Natur.360..721C |doi=10.1038/360721a0 |pmid=11536510 |s2cid=4360963}}</ref><ref name="tellus_b_52_1">{{Cite journal |last=Franck |first=S. |year=2000 |title=Reduction of biosphere life span as a consequence of geodynamics |journal=Tellus B |volume=52 |issue=1 |pages=94–107 |bibcode=2000TellB..52...94F |doi=10.1034/j.1600-0889.2000.00898.x}}</ref><ref name="grl28_9">{{Cite journal |last1=Lenton |first1=Timothy M. |last2=von Bloh |first2=Werner |year=2001 |title=Biotic feedback extends the life span of the biosphere |journal=Geophysical Research Letters |volume=28 |issue=9 |pages=1715–1718 |bibcode=2001GeoRL..28.1715L |doi=10.1029/2000GL012198 |doi-access=free}}</ref> |
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| With the hydrogen supply exhausted at its core, the Sun leaves the [[main sequence]] and begins to evolve into a [[red giant]].<ref name="Schroder 2008" /> |
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|- |
|- |
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| style="background: |
| style="background: #CEFF00;" | [[File:Butterfly icon (Noun Project).svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Biology|Biology]] |
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| |
| 1.3 billion |
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| Earth |
| [[Eukaryotic]] life dies out on Earth due to carbon dioxide starvation. Only [[prokaryote]]s remain.<ref name="bd2_6_1665"/> |
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|- |
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| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| |
| 1.5 billion |
||
| [[Callisto (moon)|Callisto]] is captured into the [[mean-motion resonance]] of the other [[Galilean moon]]s of [[Jupiter]], completing the 1:2:4:8 chain. (Currently only [[Io (moon)|Io]], [[Europa (moon)|Europa]] and [[Ganymede (moon)|Ganymede]] participate in the 1:2:4 resonance.)<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Lari |first1=Giacomo |last2=Saillenfest |first2=Melaine |last3=Fenucci |first3=Marco |date=2020 |title=Long-term evolution of the Galilean satellites: the capture of Callisto into resonance |url=https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/full_html/2020/07/aa37445-20/aa37445-20.html |journal=Astronomy & Astrophysics |volume=639 |pages=A40 |arxiv=2001.01106 |bibcode=2020A&A...639A..40L |doi=10.1051/0004-6361/202037445 |s2cid=209862163 |access-date=1 August 2022}}</ref> |
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| The Earth and Moon are very likely destroyed by falling into the Sun, just before the Sun reaches the tip of its [[red giant]] phase and its maximum radius of 256 times the present day value.<ref name="Schroder 2008" />{{efn|name=earthredgiantsun}} Before the final collision, the Moon possibly spirals below Earth's [[Roche limit]], breaking into a ring of debris, most of which falls to the Earth's surface.<ref name="powell2007" /> |
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leaving this here in case later calculation(s) show the above not to be true--> |
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| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| |
| 1.5–1.6 billion |
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| The Sun's rising luminosity causes its [[circumstellar habitable zone]] to move outwards; as [[carbon dioxide]] rises in [[Mars]]' atmosphere, its surface temperature rises to levels akin to Earth during the [[ice age]].<ref name="bd2_6_1665"/><ref name="mars"/> |
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| The Sun reaches the tip of the red-giant branch of the [[Hertzsprung–Russell diagram]], achieving its maximum radius of 256 times the present day value.<ref name="Rybicki2001" /> In the process, [[Mercury (planet)|Mercury]], [[Venus]], very likely Earth, and possibly Mars are destroyed.<ref name="Schroder 2008" /> |
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During these times, it is possible that [[Saturn]]'s moon [[Titan (moon)|Titan]] could achieve surface temperatures necessary to support life.<ref name="Titan" /> |
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|- |
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| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| |
| 1.5–4.5 billion |
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| Tidal acceleration moves the Moon far enough from the Earth to the point where it can no longer stabilize Earth's [[axial tilt]]. As a consequence, Earth's [[true polar wander]] becomes chaotic and extreme, leading to dramatic shifts in the planet's climate due to the changing axial tilt.<ref name="wander"/> |
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| Sun becomes a carbon-oxygen [[white dwarf]] with about 54.05 percent its present mass.<ref name="Schroder 2008" /><ref name="nebula" /><ref name="apj676_1_594" />{{efn|name="dwarf"}} |
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| style="background: |
| style="background: #CEFF00;" | [[File:Butterfly icon (Noun Project).svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Biology|Biology]] |
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| |
| 1.6 billion |
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| Lower estimate until all remaining life, which by now had been reduced to colonies of unicellular organisms in isolated microenvironments such as high-altitude lakes and caves, goes extinct.<ref name="swansong"/><ref name="bd2_6_1665"/>{{sfn|Adams|2008|pp=33–47}} |
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| The end of the Universe in the [[Big Rip]] scenario, assuming a model of [[dark energy]] with [[Equation of state (cosmology)|w = −1.5]].<ref name="bigrip" /> Observations of [[galaxy cluster]] speeds by the [[Chandra X-ray Observatory]] suggest that this will not occur.<ref name="chand" /> |
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| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| |
| < 2 billion |
||
| The first close passage of the [[Andromeda Galaxy]] and the [[Milky Way]].<ref name="cox"/> |
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| If the Earth and Moon are not engulfed by the Sun, by this time they will become [[tidelock]]ed, with each showing only one face to the other.<ref name="tide1"> |
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{{cite book |url=http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=aU6vcy5L8GAC&pg=PA184#v=onepage&q&f=false| title = Solar System Dynamics | author = Murray, C.D. | author2 = Dermott, S.F. | last-author-amp = yes | publisher = [[Cambridge University Press]] | date = 1999 | page = 184 | isbn = 978-0-521-57295-8 |
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}} |
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</ref><ref name="tide2"> |
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{{cite book | last = Dickinson | first = Terence | authorlink = Terence Dickinson | title = From the Big Bang to Planet X | publisher = [[Camden House]] | date = 1993 | location = Camden East, Ontario | pages = 79–81 | url = | isbn = 978-0-921820-71-0 |
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}} |
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</ref> Thereafter, the tidal action of the Sun will extract [[angular momentum]] from the system, causing the lunar orbit to decay and the Earth's spin to accelerate.<ref name="canup_righter"> |
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{{cite book | first1 = Robin M. | last1 = Canup | first2 = Kevin | last2 = Righter | title = Origin of the Earth and Moon | volume = 30 | series=The University of Arizona space science series | publisher = University of Arizona Press | date = 2000 | isbn = 978-0-8165-2073-2 | pages = 176–177 | url = http://books.google.com/books?id=8i44zjcKm4EC&pg=PA176 |
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}} |
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</ref> |
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| style="background: |
| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
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| |
| 2 billion |
||
| |
| High estimate until the Earth's oceans evaporate if the atmospheric pressure were to decrease via the [[nitrogen cycle]].<ref name="pnas106_24"/> |
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|- |
|- |
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| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| |
| 2.55 billion |
||
| The |
| The Sun will have reached a maximum surface temperature of {{cvt|5820|K|C F}}. From then on, it will become gradually cooler while its luminosity will continue to increase.<ref name="mnras386_1"/> |
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|- |
|- |
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| style="background: |
| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
||
| |
| 2.8 billion |
||
| Earth's surface temperature will reach around {{cvt|420|K|C F}}, even at the poles.<ref name="swansong"/>{{sfn|Adams|2008|pp=33–47}} |
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| [[Median]] point by which the ~47 galaxies<ref name="messier" /> of the Local Group will coalesce into a single large galaxy.<ref name="dying" /> |
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|- |
|- |
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| style="background: |
| style="background: #CEFF00;" | [[File:Butterfly icon (Noun Project).svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Biology|Biology]] |
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| |
| 2.8 billion |
||
| High estimate until all remaining Earth life goes extinct.<ref name="swansong"/>{{sfn|Adams|2008|pp=33–47}} |
|||
| Expected time when the net light emission from the combined Milkomeda galaxy begins to decline as the [[red dwarf]] stars pass through their [[blue dwarf (red-dwarf stage)|blue dwarf]] stage of peak luminosity.<ref name="bluedwarf"/> |
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|- |
|- |
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| style="background: |
| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
||
| 3–4 billion |
|||
| 10<sup>12</sup> (1 trillion) |
|||
| The [[Future of Earth#Solidification of the outer core|Earth's core freezes]] if the inner core continues to grow in size, based on its current growth rate of {{cvt|1|mm}} in diameter per year.<ref name="ng4_264"/><ref name="compo"/><ref name="meadows 2007">{{Cite book |last=Meadows |first=A. J. |url=https://archive.org/details/futureuniverse00mead_163 |title=The Future of the Universe |date=2007 |publisher=Springer |isbn=9781852339463 |pages=[https://archive.org/details/futureuniverse00mead_163/page/n87 81]–83 |url-access=limited}}</ref> Without its liquid outer core, [[Earth's magnetosphere]] shuts down,<ref name="magnet"/> and solar winds gradually deplete the atmosphere.<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Shlermeler |first=Quirin |date=3 March 2005 |title=Solar wind hammers the ozone layer |journal=News@nature |doi=10.1038/news050228-12}}</ref> |
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| Low estimate for the time until [[star formation]] ends in galaxies as galaxies are depleted of the gas clouds they need to form stars.<ref name="dying" /> |
|||
The universe's expansion, assuming a constant [[dark energy]] density, multiplies the wavelength of the cosmic microwave background by 10<sup>29</sup>, exceeding the scale of the cosmic light horizon and rendering its evidence of the [[Big Bang]] undetectable. However, it may still be possible to determine the expansion of the universe through the study of [[hypervelocity stars]].<ref name="galaxy" /> |
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|- |
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| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| {{Circa}} 3 billion<ref name="prob" group="note"/> |
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| 3×10<sup>13</sup> (30 trillion) |
|||
| There is a roughly 1-in-100,000 chance that the Earth will be ejected into interstellar space by a stellar encounter before this point, and a 1-in-300-billion chance that it will be both ejected into space and captured by another star around this point. If this were to happen, any remaining life on Earth could potentially survive for far longer if it survived the interstellar journey.{{sfn|Adams|2008|pp=33–44}} |
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| Estimated time for stars to undergo a close encounter with another star in local stellar neighborhoods. Whenever two stars (or stellar remnants) pass close to each other, their planets' orbits can be disrupted, potentially ejecting them from the system entirely. On average, the closer a planet's orbit to its parent star the longer it takes to be ejected in this manner, because it is gravitationally more tightly bound to the star.<ref name="strip" /> |
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|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
||
| 3.3 billion<ref name="prob" group="note"/> |
|||
| 10<sup>14</sup> (100 trillion) |
|||
| There is a roughly one percent chance that [[Jupiter]]'s gravity may make [[Mercury (planet)|Mercury]]'s orbit so [[Orbital eccentricity|eccentric]] as to cross [[Venus]]'s orbit by this time, sending the inner Solar System into chaos. Other possible scenarios include Mercury colliding with the Sun, being ejected from the Solar System, or colliding with Venus or Earth.<ref name="chaos"/><ref>{{Cite news |last=Shiga |first=David |date=23 April 2008 |title=Solar system could go haywire before the Sun dies |url=https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn13757-solar-system-could-go-haywire-before-the-sun-dies/ |work=New Scientist}}</ref> |
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| High estimate for the time until normal [[star formation]] ends in galaxies.<ref name="dying" /> This marks the transition from the [[Stelliferous Era]] to the [[Degenerate Era]]; with no free hydrogen to form new stars, all remaining stars slowly exhaust their fuel and die.<ref name="five ages" /> |
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|- |
|- |
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| style="background: |
| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
||
| 3.5–4.5 billion |
|||
| 1.1–1.2×10<sup>14</sup> (110–120 trillion) |
|||
| The Sun's luminosity will have increased by 35–40%, causing all water currently present in lakes and oceans to evaporate, if it had not done so earlier. The [[greenhouse effect]] caused by the massive, water-rich atmosphere will result in Earth's surface temperature rising to {{cvt|1400|K|C F}}—hot enough to melt some surface rock.{{sfn|Brownlee|2010|p=95}}<ref name="pnas106_24">{{Cite journal |last1=Li |first1=King-Fai |last2=Pahlevan |first2=Kaveh |last3=Kirschvink |first3=Joseph L. |last4=Yung |first4=Yuk L. |date=16 June 2009 |title=Atmospheric pressure as a natural climate regulator for a terrestrial planet with a biosphere |journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America |volume=106 |issue=24 |pages=9576–9579 |bibcode=2009PNAS..106.9576L |doi=10.1073/pnas.0809436106 |pmc=2701016 |pmid=19487662 |doi-access=free}}</ref><ref name="guinan_ribas">{{Cite journal |last1=Guinan |first1=E. F. |last2=Ribas |first2=I. |year=2002 |editor-last=Montesinos |editor-first=Benjamin |editor2-last=Gimenez |editor2-first=Alvaro |editor3-last=Guinan |editor3-first=Edward F. |title=Our Changing Sun: The Role of Solar Nuclear Evolution and Magnetic Activity on Earth's Atmosphere and Climate |journal=ASP Conference Proceedings |volume=269 |pages=85–106 |bibcode=2002ASPC..269...85G}}</ref><ref name="icarus74">{{Cite journal |last=Kasting |first=J. F. |date=June 1988 |title=Runaway and moist greenhouse atmospheres and the evolution of earth and Venus |url=https://zenodo.org/record/1253896 |url-status=live |journal=Icarus |volume=74 |issue=3 |pages=472–494 |bibcode=1988Icar...74..472K |doi=10.1016/0019-1035(88)90116-9 |pmid=11538226 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20191207210741/https://zenodo.org/record/1253896 |archive-date=7 December 2019 |access-date=6 September 2018}}</ref> |
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| Time by which all stars in the universe will have exhausted their fuel (the longest-lived stars, low-mass [[red dwarf]]s, have lifespans of roughly 10–20 trillion years).<ref name="dying" /> After this point, the stellar-mass objects remaining are [[compact star|stellar remnants]] ([[white dwarf]]s, [[neutron star]]s and [[stellar black hole|black holes]]). [[Brown dwarf]]s also remain. |
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Collisions between brown dwarfs will create new red dwarfs on a marginal level: on average, about 100 stars will be shining in the Milky Way. Collisions between stellar remnants will create occasional supernovae.<ref name="dying" /> |
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|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| 3.6 billion |
|||
| 10<sup>15</sup> (1 quadrillion) |
|||
| [[Neptune]]'s moon [[Triton (moon)|Triton]] falls through the planet's [[Roche limit]], potentially disintegrating into a planetary [[ring system]] similar to [[Rings of Saturn|Saturn]]'s.<ref name="triton"/> |
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| Estimated time until stellar close encounters detach all planets in star systems (including the [[Solar System]]) from their orbits.<ref name="dying" /> |
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By this point, the Sun will have cooled to five degrees above [[absolute zero]].<ref name="five degs" /> |
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|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
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| 4.5 billion |
|||
| Mars reaches the same [[solar flux]] as that of the Earth when it first formed 4.5 billion years ago from today.<ref name="mars"/> |
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|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
||
| < 5 billion |
|||
| 10<sup>19</sup> to 10<sup>20</sup> (10–100 quintillion) |
|||
| The Andromeda Galaxy will have fully [[Andromeda–Milky Way collision|merged]] with the Milky Way, forming an elliptical galaxy dubbed "Milkomeda".<ref name="cox"/> There is also a small chance of the Solar System being ejected.<ref name="cox"/><ref name="Cain">{{Cite web |last=Cain |first=Fraser |year=2007 |title=When Our Galaxy Smashes into Andromeda, What Happens to the Sun? |url=http://www.universetoday.com/2007/05/10/when-our-galaxy-smashes-into-andromeda-what-happens-to-the-sun/ |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070517021426/http://www.universetoday.com/2007/05/10/when-our-galaxy-smashes-into-andromeda-what-happens-to-the-sun/ |archive-date=17 May 2007 |access-date=2007-05-16 |website=Universe Today}}</ref> The planets of the Solar System will almost certainly not be disturbed by these events.<ref>{{Cite web |date=31 May 2012 |title=NASA's Hubble Shows Milky Way is Destined for Head-On Collision |url=http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hubble/science/milky-way-collide.html |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200430054838/https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hubble/science/milky-way-collide.html |archive-date=30 April 2020 |access-date=13 October 2012 |website=NASA}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |last=Dowd |first=Maureen |author-link=Maureen Dowd |date=29 May 2012 |title=Andromeda Is Coming! |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/30/opinion/dowd-andromeda-is-coming.html |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210308163232/https://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/30/opinion/dowd-andromeda-is-coming.html |archive-date=8 March 2021 |access-date=9 January 2014 |work=The New York Times |quote=[NASA's David Morrison] explained that the [[Andromeda-Milky Way collision]] would just be two great big fuzzy balls of stars and mostly empty space passing through each other harmlessly over the course of millions of years.}}</ref><ref name="milk"/> |
|||
| Estimated time until 90%–99% of [[brown dwarf]]s and [[compact star|stellar remnants]] (including the [[Sun]]) are ejected from galaxies. When two objects pass close enough to each other, they exchange orbital energy, with lower-mass objects tending to gain energy. Through repeated encounters, the lower-mass objects can gain enough energy in this manner to be ejected from their galaxy. This process eventually causes the Milky Way to eject the majority of its brown dwarfs and stellar remnants.<ref name="dying" /><ref name="five ages pp85–87" /> |
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|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
||
| 5.4 billion |
|||
| 10<sup>20</sup> (100 quintillion) |
|||
| The Sun, having now exhausted its hydrogen supply, leaves the [[main sequence]] and begins [[Stellar evolution|evolving]] into a [[red giant]].<ref name="Schroder 2008"/> |
|||
| Estimated time until the [[Earth]] collides with the [[black dwarf]] [[Sun]] due to the decay of its orbit via emission of [[gravitational radiation]],<ref name="dyson" /> if the Earth is not ejected from its orbit by a stellar encounter or engulfed by the Sun during its red giant phase.<ref name="dyson" /> |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: |
| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
||
| 6.5 billion |
|||
| 10<sup>30</sup> |
|||
| Mars reaches the same solar radiation flux as Earth today, after which it will suffer a similar fate to the Earth as described above.<ref name="mars"/> |
|||
| Estimated time until those stars not ejected from galaxies (1% – 10%) fall into their galaxies' central [[supermassive black hole]]s. By this point, with [[binary stars]] having fallen into each other, and planets into their stars, via emission of gravitational radiation, only solitary objects (stellar remnants, brown dwarfs, ejected planets, black holes) will remain in the universe.<ref name=dying/> |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
||
| 6.6 billion |
|||
| 2×10<sup>36</sup> |
|||
| The Sun may experience a [[helium flash]], resulting in its core becoming as bright as the combined luminosity of all the stars in the Milky Way galaxy.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Taylor |first=David |title=The End Of The Sun |url=https://faculty.wcas.northwestern.edu/~infocom/The%20Website/end.html |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210512065300/https://faculty.wcas.northwestern.edu/~infocom/The%20Website/end.html |archive-date=12 May 2021 |access-date=29 July 2021}}</ref> |
|||
| The estimated time for all nucleons in the observable Universe to decay, if the [[Proton decay|proton half-life]] takes its smallest possible value (8.2×10<sup>33</sup> years).<ref name="proton" /><ref name="half-life" />{{efn|name=half-life}} |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
||
| 7.5 billion |
|||
| 3×10<sup>43</sup> |
|||
| Earth and Mars may become [[tidally locked]] with the expanding red giant Sun.<ref name="mars"/> |
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| Estimated time for all nucleons in the observable Universe to decay, if the [[proton decay|proton half-life]] takes the largest possible value, 10<sup>41</sup> years,<ref name="dying" /> assuming that the [[Big Bang]] was [[inflation (cosmology)|inflationary]] and that the same process that made baryons predominate over anti-baryons in the early Universe makes protons decay.<ref name="half-life" />{{efn|name=half-life}} By this time, if protons do decay, the [[Black Hole Era]], in which black holes are the only remaining celestial objects, begins.<ref name="five ages" /><ref name="dying" /> |
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| style="background: |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| 7.59 billion |
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| 10<sup>65</sup> |
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| The Earth and Moon are very likely destroyed by falling into the Sun, just before the Sun reaches the top of its [[red giant]] phase.<ref name="Schroder 2008"/><ref name="earthredgiantsun" group="note">This has been a tricky question for quite a while; see the 2001 paper by Rybicki, K. R. and Denis, C. However, according to the latest calculations, this happens with a very high degree of certainty.</ref> Before the final collision, the Moon possibly spirals below Earth's [[Roche limit]], breaking into a ring of debris, most of which falls to the Earth's surface.<ref name="powell2007"/><!-- Leaving this here in case later calculation(s) show the above not to be true --> |
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| Assuming that protons do not decay, estimated time for rigid objects like [[Rock (geology)|rocks]] to rearrange their atoms and molecules via [[quantum tunneling]]. On this timescale, all matter is liquid.<ref name="dyson" /> |
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During this era, Saturn's moon [[Titan (moon)|Titan]] may reach surface temperatures necessary to support life.<ref name="Titan"/> |
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|- |
|- |
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| style="background: |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| 7.9 billion |
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| 5.8×10<sup>68</sup> |
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| The Sun reaches the top of the red-giant branch of the [[Hertzsprung–Russell diagram]], achieving its maximum radius of 256 times the present-day value.<ref name="Rybicki2001"/> In the process, [[Mercury (planet)|Mercury]], [[Venus]] and Earth are likely destroyed.<ref name="Schroder 2008"/> |
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| Estimated time until a [[stellar mass black hole]] with a mass of 3 [[solar mass]]es decays into subatomic particles by the [[Hawking radiation|Hawking process]].<ref name="Page 1976" /> |
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| style="background: |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| 8 billion |
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| 1.342×10<sup>99</sup> |
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| The Sun becomes a carbon–oxygen [[white dwarf]] with about 54.05% of its present mass.<ref name="Schroder 2008"/><ref name="nebula"/><ref name="apj676_1_594"/><ref name="dwarf group note">{{harvnb|Kalirai |Hansen |Kelson |Reitzel |2008 |p=16}}. Based upon the weighted least-squares best fit with the initial mass equal to a [[solar mass]].</ref> At this point, if the Earth survives, temperatures on the surface of the planet, as well as the other planets in the Solar System, will begin dropping rapidly, due to the white dwarf Sun emitting much less energy than it does today. |
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| Estimated time until the central black hole of [[S5 0014+81]], as of 2015 the [[List of most massive black holes|most massive known]] with the mass of 40 billion solar masses, dissipates by the emission of Hawking radiation,<ref name="Page 1976" /> assuming zero angular momentum (non-rotating black hole). However, the black hole is on the state of accretion, so the time it takes may be longer than stated on the left. |
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| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| 22.3 billion |
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| 1.7×10<sup>106</sup> |
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| The estimated time until the end of the universe in a [[Big Rip]], assuming a model of [[dark energy]] with [[Equation of state (cosmology)|{{var|w}} = −1.5]].<ref name="bigrip"/><ref>{{Cite web |title=Ask Ethan: Could The Universe Be Torn Apart In A Big Rip? |url=https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2018/06/30/ask-ethan-could-the-universe-be-torn-apart-in-a-big-rip/ |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210802032741/https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2018/06/30/ask-ethan-could-the-universe-be-torn-apart-in-a-big-rip/ |archive-date=2 August 2021 |access-date=26 January 2021 |website=[[Forbes]]}}</ref> If the density of dark energy is less than −1, then the [[universe's expansion]] will continue to accelerate and the [[observable universe]] will grow ever sparser. Around 200 million years before the Big Rip, galaxy clusters like the [[Local Group]] or the [[Sculptor Group]] will be destroyed; 60 million years before the Big Rip, all galaxies will begin to lose [[star]]s around their edges and will completely disintegrate in another 40 million years; three months before the Big Rip, star systems will become gravitationally unbound, and planets will fly off into the rapidly expanding universe; thirty minutes before the Big Rip, [[planet]]s, stars, [[asteroid]]s and even extreme objects like [[neutron star]]s and [[black hole]]s will evaporate into [[atom]]s; one hundred [[zeptosecond]]s (10<sup>−19</sup> seconds) before the Big Rip, atoms will break apart. Ultimately, once the Rip reaches the [[Planck scale]], cosmic strings would be disintegrated as well as the fabric of [[spacetime]] itself. The universe would enter into a "rip singularity" when all non-zero distances become infinitely large. Whereas a "crunch singularity" involves all matter being infinitely concentrated, in a "rip singularity", all matter is infinitely spread out.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Caldwell |first1=Robert R. |last2=Kamionkowski, Marc |last3=Weinberg, Nevin N. |year=2003 |title=Phantom Energy and Cosmic Doomsday |journal=Physical Review Letters |volume=91 |issue=7 |pages=071301 |arxiv=astro-ph/0302506 |bibcode=2003PhRvL..91g1301C |doi=10.1103/PhysRevLett.91.071301 |pmid=12935004 |s2cid=119498512}}</ref> However, observations of [[galaxy cluster]] speeds by the [[Chandra X-ray Observatory]] suggest that the true value of {{var|w}} is c. −0.991, meaning the Big Rip is unlikely to occur.<ref name="chand"/> |
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| Estimated time until a supermassive black hole with a mass of 20 trillion solar masses decays by the Hawking process.<ref name="Page 1976" /> This marks the end of the Black Hole Era. Beyond this time, if protons do decay, the Universe enters the [[Dark Era]], in which all physical objects have decayed to subatomic particles, gradually winding down to their final energy state in the [[heat death of the universe]].<ref name="five ages" /><ref name="dying" /> |
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| style="background: |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| 50 billion |
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| 10<sup>200</sup> |
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| If the Earth and Moon are not engulfed by the Sun, by this time they will become [[tidally locked]], with each showing only one face to the other.<ref name="tide1">{{Cite book |last1=Murray |first1=C. D. |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=aU6vcy5L8GAC&pg=PA184 |title=Solar System Dynamics |last2=Dermott |first2=S. F. |date=1999 |publisher=[[Cambridge University Press]] |isbn=978-0-521-57295-8 |page=184 |language=en |access-date=27 March 2016 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200801121137/https://books.google.com/books?id=aU6vcy5L8GAC&pg=PA184 |archive-date=1 August 2020 |url-status=live |name-list-style=amp}}</ref><ref name="tide2">{{Cite book |last=Dickinson |first=Terence |author-link=Terence Dickinson |title=From the Big Bang to Planet X |date=1993 |publisher=[[Camden House]] |isbn=978-0-921820-71-0 |location=Camden East, Ontario |pages=79–81 |language=en}}</ref> Thereafter, the tidal action of the white dwarf Sun will extract [[angular momentum]] from the system, causing the lunar orbit to decay and the Earth's spin to accelerate.<ref name="canup_righter">{{Cite book |last1=Canup |first1=Robin M. |author-link=Robin Canup |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=8i44zjcKm4EC&pg=PA176 |title=Origin of the Earth and Moon |last2=Righter |first2=Kevin |date=2000 |publisher=University of Arizona Press |isbn=978-0-8165-2073-2 |series=The University of Arizona space science series |volume=30 |pages=176–177 |access-date=27 March 2016 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200801122840/https://books.google.com/books?id=8i44zjcKm4EC&pg=PA176 |archive-date=1 August 2020 |url-status=live}}</ref> |
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| Estimated high time for all nucleons in the observable universe to decay, if they don't via the above process, through any one of many different mechanisms allowed in modern particle physics (higher-order [[Baryon number|baryon non-conservation]] processes, [[virtual black holes]], [[sphaleron]]s, etc.) on time scales of 10<sup>46</sup> to 10<sup>200</sup> years.<ref name=dying>Adams and Laughlin (1997), p. 15</ref> |
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| style="background: |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| 65 billion |
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| 10<sup>1500</sup> |
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| The Moon may collide with the Earth or be torn apart to form an orbital ring due to the decay of its orbit, assuming the Earth and Moon have not already been destroyed.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Dorminey |first=Bruce |date=31 January 2017 |title=Earth and Moon May Be on Long-Term Collision Course |url=https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucedorminey/2017/01/31/earth-and-moon-may-be-on-long-term-collision-course/ |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170201080301/https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucedorminey/2017/01/31/earth-and-moon-may-be-on-long-term-collision-course/ |archive-date=1 February 2017 |access-date=11 February 2017 |website=Forbes}}</ref> |
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| Assuming protons do not decay, the estimated time until all [[baryonic matter]] has either fused together to form [[iron-56]] or decayed from a higher mass element into iron-56.<ref name="dyson" /> (see [[iron star]]) |
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| style="background: |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| 100 billion – 10<sup>12</sup> (1 trillion) |
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| <math>10^{10^{26}}</math>{{efn|name=big number}}{{efn|name=big number2}} |
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| All the ≈47 galaxies<ref name="messier"/> of the Local Group will coalesce into a single large galaxy—an expanded [[Andromeda–Milky Way collision|"Milkomeda"/"Milkdromeda"]]; the last galaxies of the [[Local Group]] coalescing will mark the effective completion of its evolution.<ref name="dying"/> |
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| Low estimate for the time until all objects exceeding the [[Planck mass]] collapse via [[quantum tunnelling]] into [[black hole]]s, assuming no [[proton decay]] or [[virtual black holes]].<ref name="dyson" /> On this vast timescale, even ultra-stable iron stars are destroyed by quantum tunnelling events. First iron stars of sufficient mass<!-- sufficient mass is somewhere between 0.2 solar masses<ref>{{cite arxiv|title=The fate of a neutron star just below the minimum mass: does it explode?|author=K. Sumiyoshi, S. Yamada, H. Suzuki, W. Hillebrandt|date=21 Jul 1997 |eprint=astro-ph/9707230 |quote="Given this assumption... the minimum possible mass of a neutron star is 0.189"}}</ref> and the Chandrasekhar limit, but I don't know where. At 0.2M a neutron star is stable, but an iron star is energetically favorable at 0.2M, so it can't collapse even with quantum tunneling. --> will collapse via tunnelling into [[neutron star]]s. Subsequently neutron stars and any remaining iron stars collapse via tunnelling into black holes. The subsequent evaporation of each resulting black hole into sub-atomic particles (a process lasting roughly [[googol|10<sup>100</sup>]] years) is on these timescales instantaneous. |
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| style="background: |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| 100–150 billion |
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| <math>10^{10^{50}}</math>{{efn| name = prob}} |
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| The [[universe's expansion]] causes all galaxies beyond the former [[Local Group]] to disappear beyond the [[cosmic light horizon]], removing them from the [[observable universe]].<ref name="galaxy"/><ref name="Ord">{{Cite arXiv |eprint=2104.01191 |class=gr-qc |first=Toby |last=Ord |title=The Edges of Our Universe |date=2021-05-05}}</ref> |
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| Estimated time for a [[Boltzmann brain]] to appear in the vacuum via a spontaneous entropy decrease.<ref name="linde" /> |
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|- |
|- |
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| style="background: |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| 150 billion |
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| <math>10^{10^{76}}</math> |
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| The universe will have expanded by a factor of 6,000, and the [[cosmic microwave background]] will have cooled by the same factor to around {{val|4.5|e=-4|u=K}}. The temperature of the background will continue to cool in proportion to the expansion of the universe.<ref name="Ord"/> |
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| High estimate for the time until all matter collapses into neutron stars or black holes, assuming no proton decay or virtual black holes,<ref name="dyson" /> which then (on these timescales) instantaneously evaporate into sub-atomic particles. |
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| style="background: |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| 325 billion |
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| <math>10^{10^{120}}</math> |
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| The estimated time by which the expansion of the universe isolates all gravitationally bound structures within their own cosmological horizon. At this point, the universe has expanded by a factor of more than 100 million from today, and even individual exiled stars are isolated.<ref name=":0"/> |
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| High estimate for the time for the Universe to reach its [[Heat death of the universe|final energy state]], even in the presence of a [[false vacuum]].<ref name="linde" /> |
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| style="background: |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| 800 billion |
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| <math>10^{10^{10^{56}}}</math>{{efn| name= prob}}{{efn| name= big number3}} |
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| The expected time when the net light emission from the combined "Milkomeda" galaxy begins to decline as the [[red dwarf]] stars pass through their [[Blue dwarf (red-dwarf stage)|blue dwarf]] stage of peak luminosity.<ref name="bluedwarf"/> |
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| Estimated time for random [[quantum fluctuation]]s to generate a new [[Big Bang]].<ref name="carroll and chen" /><ref name="TegmarkPUstaple">"Parallel universes. Not just a staple of science fiction, other universes are a direct implication of cosmological observations.", Tegmark M., Sci Am. 2003 May;288(5):40-51.</ref><ref>{{cite journal |author1=Max Tegmark |journal=In "Science and Ultimate Reality: from Quantum to Cosmos", honoring John Wheeler's 90th birthday. J. D. Barrow, P.C.W. Davies, & C.L. Harper eds. Cambridge University Press (2003) |title=Parallel Universes |date=2003 |arxiv=astro-ph/0302131|bibcode = 2003astro.ph..2131T }}</ref> |
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| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| 10<sup>12</sup> (1 trillion) |
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| A low estimate for the time until [[star formation]] ends in galaxies as galaxies are depleted of the [[gas cloud]]s they need to form stars.<ref name="dying"/> |
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The Universe's expansion, assuming a constant dark energy density, multiplies the wavelength of the cosmic microwave background by 10<sup>29</sup>, exceeding the scale of the [[cosmic light horizon]] and rendering its evidence of the [[Big Bang]] undetectable. However, it may still be possible to determine the expansion of the universe through the study of [[hypervelocity star]]s.<ref name="galaxy"/> |
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==Future of humanity== |
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{| class="wikitable" style="width: 100%; margin-right: 0;" |
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| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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! scope="col" | [[File:Key.svg|12px]] |
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| 1.05×10<sup>12</sup> (1.05 trillion) |
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! scope="col" | Years from now |
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| The estimated time by which the universe will have expanded by a factor of more than 10<sup>26</sup>, reducing the average particle density to less than one particle per [[cosmological horizon]] volume. Beyond this point, particles of unbound intergalactic matter are effectively isolated, and collisions between them cease to affect the future evolution of the universe.<ref name=":0">{{Cite journal |last1=Busha |first1=Michael T. |last2=Adams |first2=Fred C. |last3=Wechsler |first3=Risa H. |last4=Evrard |first4=August E. |date=2003-10-20 |title=Future Evolution of Structure in an Accelerating Universe |journal=The Astrophysical Journal |volume=596 |issue=2 |pages=713–724 |arxiv=astro-ph/0305211 |doi=10.1086/378043 |issn=0004-637X |s2cid=15764445}}</ref> |
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! scope="col" | Event |
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| [[File: |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| 1.4×10<sup>12</sup> (1.4 trillion) |
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| 10,000 |
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| The estimated time by which the cosmic background radiation cools to a floor temperature of 10<sup>−30</sup> K and does not decline further. This residual temperature comes from horizon radiation, which does not decline over time.<ref name="Ord"/> |
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| Most probable estimated lifespan of technological civilization, according to [[Frank Drake]]'s original formulation of the [[Drake equation]].<ref>{{cite book|last1=Smith|first1=Cameron|last2=Davies|first2=Evan T.|title=Emigrating Beyond Earth: Human Adaptation and Space Colonization|date=2012|publisher=Springer|page=258}}</ref> |
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| style="background: |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| 2×10<sup>12</sup> (2 trillion) |
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| 10,000 |
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| The estimated time by which all objects beyond our former Local Group are [[redshift]]ed by a factor of more than 10<sup>53</sup>. Even [[gamma ray]]s that they emit are stretched so that their wavelengths are greater than the physical diameter of the horizon. The resolution time for such radiation will exceed the physical age of the universe.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Krauss |first1=Lawrence M. |author-link=Lawrence Krauss |last2=Starkman |first2=Glenn D. |author-link2=Glenn D. Starkman |date=March 2000 |title=Life, The Universe, and Nothing: Life and Death in an Ever-Expanding Universe |journal=The Astrophysical Journal |volume=531 |issue=1 |pages=22–30 |arxiv=astro-ph/9902189 |bibcode=2000ApJ...531...22K |doi=10.1086/308434 |issn=0004-637X |s2cid=18442980}}</ref> |
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| If [[globalization]] trends lead to [[panmixia]], [[human genetic variation]] will no longer be regionalized, as the [[effective population size]] will equal the actual population size.<ref>{{cite book|last1=Klein|first1=Jan|last2=Takahata|first2=Naoyuki|title=Where Do We Come From?: The Molecular Evidence for Human Descent|date=2002|publisher=Springer|page=395}}</ref> (This does not mean homogeneity, as minority traits will still be preserved, e.g., no [[disappearing blonde gene]], but will rather be evenly distributed worldwide.) |
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| style="background: |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| 4×10<sup>12</sup> (4 trillion) |
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| 10,000 |
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| The estimated time until the red dwarf star [[Proxima Centauri]], the closest star to the Sun today, at a distance of 4.25 [[light-year]]s, leaves the main sequence and becomes a white dwarf.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Adams |first1=Fred C. |last2=Laughlin |first2=Gregory |last3=Graves |first3=Genevieve J. M. |year=2004 |title=RED Dwarfs and the End of The Main Sequence |url=http://www.astroscu.unam.mx/rmaa/RMxAC..22/PDF/RMxAC..22_adams.pdf |url-status=live |journal=Revista Mexicana de Astronomía y Astrofísica, Serie de Conferencias |volume=22 |pages=46–49 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181223151311/http://www.astroscu.unam.mx/rmaa/RMxAC..22/PDF/RMxAC..22_adams.pdf |archive-date=23 December 2018 |access-date=21 May 2016}}</ref> |
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|Humanity has a 95% probability of being extinct by this date, according to [[Brandon Carter]]'s formulation of the controversial [[Doomsday argument]], which argues that half of the humans who will ever have lived have probably already been born.<ref name="brandon" /> |
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| [[File: |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| 10<sup>13</sup> (10 trillion) |
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| 20,000 |
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| The estimated time of peak habitability in the universe, unless habitability around low-mass stars is suppressed.<ref name="loeb_2016"/> |
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|According to the [[glottochronology]] linguistic model of [[Morris Swadesh]], future languages should retain just 1 out of 100 "core vocabulary" words on their [[Swadesh list]] compared to that of their current progenitors.<ref>{{cite book|last=Greenberg|first=Joseph|title=Language in the Americas|date=1987|publisher=Stanford University Press|pages=341–342}}</ref> |
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| [[File: |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| 1.2×10<sup>13</sup> (12 trillion) |
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| 50,000 |
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| The estimated time until the red dwarf [[VB 10]], as of 2016 the least-massive [[main-sequence star]] with an estimated mass of 0.075 {{Solar mass}}, runs out of hydrogen in its core and becomes a white dwarf.<ref name="S&T 22">{{Cite journal |date=November 1997 |title=Why the Smallest Stars Stay Small |journal=Sky & Telescope |issue=22}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Adams |first1=F. C. |last2=Bodenheimer |first2=P. |last3=Laughlin |first3=G. |year=2005 |title=M dwarfs: planet formation and long term evolution |journal=Astronomische Nachrichten |volume=326 |issue=10 |pages=913–919 |bibcode=2005AN....326..913A |doi=10.1002/asna.200510440 |doi-access=free}}</ref> |
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| According to the theory of historian Max Ostrovsky,<ref>''[[Y = Arctg X: The Hyperbola of the World Order]]'', (Lanham: University Press of America, 2007).</ref> permanent disintegration of the World State due to the advent of the Glacial Age.<ref name="Berger2002" /> The end of the ''unipolar moment'' from AD 1991 and return to permanent multipolar world based on the [[balance of power]]. |
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| style="background: |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| 3×10<sup>13</sup> (30 trillion) |
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| 100,000+ |
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| The estimated time for stars (including the Sun) to undergo a close encounter with another star in local stellar neighborhoods. Whenever two stars (or [[stellar remnants]]) pass close to each other, their planets' orbits can be disrupted, potentially ejecting them from the system entirely. On average, the closer a planet's orbit to its parent star the longer it takes to be ejected in this manner, because it is gravitationally more tightly bound to the star.<ref name="strip"/> |
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| Time required to [[terraforming of Mars|terraform Mars]] with an [[oxygen]]-rich breathable atmosphere, using only plants with solar efficiency comparable to the biosphere currently found on Earth.<ref>{{cite journal|last=McKay|first=Christopher P.|author2=Toon, Owen B. |author3=Kasting, James F. |title=Making Mars habitable|journal=Nature|date=8 August 1991|volume=352|issue=6335|pages=489–496|doi=10.1038/352489a0|bibcode = 1991Natur.352..489M }}</ref> |
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| [[File: |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| 100 |
| 10<sup>14</sup> (100 trillion) |
||
| A high estimate for the time by which normal [[star formation]] ends in galaxies.<ref name="dying"/> This marks the transition from the [[Future of an expanding universe#Degenerate Era|Stelliferous Era to the Degenerate Era]]; with too little free hydrogen to form new stars, all remaining stars slowly exhaust their fuel and die.<ref name="five ages"/> By this time, the universe will have expanded by a factor of approximately 10<sup>2554</sup>.<ref name=":0"/> |
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| Estimated shortest time by which humanity could colonize the 100,000 light-year galaxy and become capable of [[Type III civilization|harnessing all the energy of the galaxy]], assuming a velocity of 10% the [[speed of light]] <ref name="typeiii" /> |
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| style="background: |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| 1.1–1.2×10<sup>14</sup> (110–120 trillion) |
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| 2 million |
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| The time by which all stars in the universe will have exhausted their fuel (the longest-lived stars, low-mass [[red dwarf]]s, have lifespans of roughly 10–20 trillion years).<ref name="dying"/> After this point, the stellar-mass objects remaining are stellar remnants ([[white dwarf]]s, [[neutron star]]s, [[Stellar black hole|black holes]]) and [[brown dwarf]]s. |
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| Vertebrate species separated for this long will generally undergo [[allopatric speciation]].<ref>{{cite journal|last=Avise |first=John |authorlink=John Avise |author2=D. Walker |author3=G. C. Johns |title=Speciation durations and Pleistocene effects on vertebrate phylogeography|journal=Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B|date=1998-09-22|volume=265|issue=1407|pages=1707–1712|url=http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1689361/bin/9787467s1.pdf |doi=10.1098/rspb.1998.0492 |pmid=9787467 |pmc=1689361}}</ref> Evolutionary biologist [[James W. Valentine]] predicted that if humanity has been dispersed among genetically isolated [[space colonization|space colonies]] over this time, the galaxy will host an [[evolutionary radiation]] of multiple human species with a "diversity of form and adaptation that would astound us".<ref>{{cite book|last=Valentine|first=James W.|authorlink=James W. Valentine|editor1-last=Finney|editor1-first=Ben R.|editor1-link=Ben Finney|editor2-last=Jones|editor2-first=Eric M.|title=Interstellar Migration and the Human Experience|date=1985|publisher=University of California Press|chapter=The Origins of Evolutionary Novelty And Galactic Colonization|page=274}}</ref> (This would be a natural process of isolated populations, unrelated to potential deliberate [[genetic enhancement]] technologies.) |
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Collisions between brown dwarfs will create new red dwarfs on a marginal level: on average, about 100 stars will be shining in what was once "Milkomeda". Collisions between stellar remnants will create occasional supernovae.<ref name="dying"/> |
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|- |
|- |
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| style="background: |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| 10<sup>15</sup> (1 quadrillion) |
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| 7.8 million |
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| The estimated time until stellar close encounters detach all planets in star systems (including the Solar System) from their orbits.<ref name="dying"/> |
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|Humanity has a 95% probability of being extinct by this date, according to [[J. Richard Gott]]'s formulation of the controversial [[Doomsday argument]], which argues that we have probably already lived through half the duration of human history.{{citation needed|date=August 2015}} |
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By this point, the [[black dwarf]] that was once the Sun will have cooled to {{cvt|5|K|C F}}.<ref name="five degs"/> |
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|- |
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| [[File: |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| 10<sup>19</sup> to 10<sup>20</sup><br/>(10–100 quintillion) |
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| 5 – 50 million |
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| The estimated time until 90–99% of brown dwarfs and stellar remnants (including the Sun) are ejected from galaxies. When two objects pass close enough to each other, they exchange orbital energy, with lower-mass objects tending to gain energy. Through repeated encounters, the lower-mass objects can gain enough energy in this manner to be ejected from their galaxy. This process eventually causes "Milkomeda"/"Milkdromeda" to eject the majority of its brown dwarfs and stellar remnants.<ref name="dying"/><ref name="five ages pp85–87"/> |
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| Shortest time by which the entire galaxy could be colonised by means within reach of current technology.<ref name="sublight" /> |
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| [[File: |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| 10<sup>20</sup> (100 quintillion) |
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| 100 million |
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| The estimated time until the Earth collides with the [[black dwarf]] Sun due to the decay of its orbit via emission of [[gravitational radiation]],<ref name="dyson"/> if the Earth is not ejected from its orbit by a stellar encounter or engulfed by the Sun during its red giant phase.<ref name="dyson"/> |
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| Maximal estimated lifespan of technological civilization, according to [[Frank Drake]]'s original formulation of the [[Drake equation]].<ref>{{cite book|last1=Bignami|first1=Giovanni F.|last2=Sommariva|first2=Andrea|title=A Scenario for Interstellar Exploration and Its Financing|date=2013|publisher=Springer|page=23}}</ref> |
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| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| 10<sup>23</sup> (100 sextillion) |
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| 1 billion |
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| Around this timescale most stellar remnants and other objects are ejected from the remains of their galactic cluster.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Baez |first=John C. |author-link=John C. Baez |date=7 February 2016 |title=The End of the Universe |url=http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/end.html |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090530050623/http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/end.html |archive-date=30 May 2009 |access-date=13 February 2021 |website=math.ucr.edu}}</ref> |
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| Estimated time for an [[astroengineering]] project to alter the [[Earth's orbit]], compensating for the Sun's increasing brightness and outward migration of the [[Circumstellar habitable zone|habitable zone]], accomplished by repeated asteroid [[gravity assist]]s.<ref>{{cite journal | first=D. G. | last=Korycansky |author2=Laughlin, Gregory|author3= Adams, Fred C. | date=2001 | |
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title=Astronomical engineering: a strategy for modifying planetary orbits | doi=10.1023/A:1002790227314 | journal=Astrophysics and Space Science | id=Astrophys.Space Sci.275:349-366,2001 | volume=275 | page=349 }}</ref><ref>{{cite journal|last=Korycansky|first=D. G.|title=Astroengineering, or how to save the Earth in only one billion years|journal=Revista Mexicana de Astronomía y Astrofísica|date=2004|volume=22|pages=117–120|url=http://www.astroscu.unam.mx/rmaa/RMxAC..22/PDF/RMxAC..22_korycansky.pdf}}</ref> |
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|} |
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==Spacecraft and space exploration== |
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To date five spacecraft ([[Voyager 1]], [[Voyager 2]], [[Pioneer 10]], [[Pioneer 11]] and ''[[New Horizons]]'') are on trajectories which will take them out of the Solar System and into [[interstellar medium|interstellar space]]. Barring an extremely unlikely collision with some object, the craft should persist indefinitely.<ref name="time" /> |
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{| class="wikitable" style="width: 100%; margin-right: 0;" |
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|- |
|- |
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| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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! scope="col" | [[File:Key.svg|12px]] |
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| 10<sup>30</sup> (1 nonillion) |
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! scope="col" | Years from now |
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| The estimated time until most or all of the remaining 1–10% of stellar remnants not ejected from galaxies fall into their galaxies' central [[supermassive black hole]]s. By this point, with [[binary star]]s having fallen into each other, and planets into their stars, via emission of gravitational radiation, only solitary objects (stellar remnants, brown dwarfs, ejected planetary-mass objects, black holes) will remain in the universe.<ref name="dying"/> |
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! scope="col" | Event |
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|- |
|- |
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| style="background: |
| style="background: #FFE4E1;" | [[File:Psi (greek letter).svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Particle physics|Particle physics]] |
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| 2×10<sup>36</sup> (2 undecillion) |
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| 10,000 |
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| The estimated time for all [[nucleon]]s in the observable universe to decay, if the hypothesized [[proton half-life]] takes its smallest possible value (8.2 × 10<sup>33</sup> years).<ref name="proton"/><ref name="half-life" group="note">Around 264 half-lives. Tyson et al. employ the computation with a different value for half-life.</ref> |
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| ''[[Pioneer 10]]'' passes within 3.8 [[light year]]s of [[Barnard's Star]].<ref>{{Cite book|title = Concorde: The Rise and Fall of the Supersonic Airliner|url = https://books.google.com.br/books?id=xJnlCQAAQBAJ&pg=PT211&lpg=PT211&dq=pioneer+10+barnard%27s+star&source=bl&ots=BA_LsJasQw&sig=3hJPNAfkb7TRMNPZ0DzYr3s6_rE&hl=pt-BR&sa=X&ved=0CCkQ6AEwAmoVChMI7Y7j4fOVyAIVSoGQCh0roQK9#v=onepage&q=pioneer%2010%20barnard's%20star&f=false|publisher = Atlantic Books, Limited|date = 2015-10-01|isbn = 9781782391081|language = en|first = Jonathan|last = Glancey}}</ref> |
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|- |
|- |
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| style="background: |
| style="background: #FFE4E1;" | [[File:Psi (greek letter).svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Particle physics|Particle physics]] |
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| 10<sup>36</sup>–10<sup>38</sup> (1–100 undecillion) |
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| 25,000 |
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| Estimated time for all remaining planets and stellar-mass objects, including the Sun, to disintegrate if proton decay can occur.<ref name="dying"/> |
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| The [[Arecibo message]], a collection of radio data transmitted on 16 November 1974, reaches the distance of its destination, the [[globular cluster]] [[Messier 13]].<ref name="glob" /> This is the only [[interstellar radio message]] sent to such a distant region of the galaxy. There will be a 24-light-year shift in the cluster's position in the galaxy during the time it takes the message to reach it, but as the cluster is 168 light-years in diameter, the message will still reach its destination.<ref>{{cite web|title=In regard to the email from|publisher=Science 2.0|author=Dave Deamer|url=http://www.science20.com/comments/28100/In_regard_to_the_email_from|accessdate=2014-11-14}}</ref> Any reply will take at least another 25,000 years. |
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|- |
|- |
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| style="background: |
| style="background: #FFE4E1;" | [[File:Psi (greek letter).svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Particle physics|Particle physics]] |
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| 3×10<sup>43</sup> (30 tredecillion) |
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| 32,000 |
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| Estimated time for all nucleons in the observable universe to decay, if the hypothesized proton half-life takes the largest possible value, 10<sup>41</sup> years,<ref name="dying"/> assuming that the Big Bang was [[Inflation (cosmology)|inflationary]] and that the same process that made baryons predominate over anti-baryons in the early universe makes protons decay. By this time, if protons do decay, the [[Future of an expanding universe#Black Hole Era|Black Hole Era]], in which black holes are the only remaining celestial objects, begins.<ref name="dying"/><ref name="five ages"/> |
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| ''[[Pioneer 10]]'' passes within 3 [[light year]]s of [[Ross 248]].<ref name="Pioneer 1st 7 billion" /><ref name="Pioneer 1st 7 billion2" /> |
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|- |
|- |
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| style="background: |
| style="background: #FFE4E1;" | [[File:Psi (greek letter).svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Particle physics|Particle physics]] |
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| 3.14×10<sup>50</sup> (314 quindecillion) |
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| 40,000 |
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| |
| The estimated time until a [[micro black hole]] of 1 Earth mass today, decays into [[subatomic particle]]s by the emission of [[Hawking radiation]].<ref name="Page 1976"/> |
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|- |
|- |
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| style="background: |
| style="background: #FFE4E1;" | [[File:Psi (greek letter).svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Particle physics|Particle physics]] |
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| 10<sup>65</sup> (100 vigintillion) |
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| 50,000 |
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| Assuming that protons do not decay, estimated time for rigid objects, from free-floating rocks in space to planets, to rearrange their [[atom]]s and [[molecule]]s via [[quantum tunnelling]]. On this timescale, any discrete body of matter "behaves like a liquid" and becomes a smooth sphere due to diffusion and gravity.<ref name="dyson"/> |
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| The ''[[KEO]]'' space time capsule, if it is launched, will reenter Earth's atmosphere.<ref name="keo1" /> |
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|- |
|- |
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| style="background: |
| style="background: #FFE4E1;" | [[File:Psi (greek letter).svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Particle physics|Particle physics]] |
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| 1.16×10<sup>67</sup> (11.6 unvigintillion) |
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| 296,000 |
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| |
| The estimated time until a black hole of 1 solar mass today, decays by Hawking radiation.<ref name="Page 1976"/> |
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|- |
|- |
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| style="background: |
| style="background: #FFE4E1;" | [[File:Psi (greek letter).svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Particle physics|Particle physics]] |
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| 1.54×10<sup>91</sup>–1.41×10<sup>92</sup> (15.4–141 novemvigintillion) |
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| 800,000 – 8 million |
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| The estimated time until the resulting [[supermassive black hole]] of "Milkomeda"/"Milkdromeda" from the merger of [[Sagittarius A*]] and the [[Andromeda Galaxy#Nucleus|P2 concentration]] during the [[Andromeda–Milky Way collision|collision of the Milky Way and Andromeda galaxies]]<ref>{{Cite news |last=Overbye |first=Denis |date=September 16, 2015 |title=More Evidence for Coming Black Hole Collision |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/22/science/space/more-evidence-for-coming-black-hole-collision.html |work=The New York Times}}</ref> vanishes by Hawking radiation,<ref name="Page 1976"/> assuming it does not accrete any additional matter nor merge with other black holes—though it is most likely that this supermassive black hole will nonetheless merge with other supermassive black holes during the gravitational collapse towards "Milkomeda"/"Milkdromeda" of other Local Group galaxies.<ref>{{Cite web |last=L. |first=Logan Richard |date=2021 |title=Black holes can help us answer many long-asked questions. |url=https://www.microscopy-uk.net/black-holes-can-help-us-answer-many-long-asked-questions/ |access-date=May 30, 2023 |website=Microscopy UK - Science & Education |publisher=Micscape |quote="When galaxies collide, the supermassive black holes in the central contract eventually find their way into the centre of the newly created galaxy where they are ultimately pulled together."}}</ref> This supermassive black hole might be the very last entity from the former Local Group to disappear—and the last evidence of its existence. |
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| Estimated lifespan of the two [[Pioneer plaque]]s, before the information stored on them is rendered unrecoverable.<ref>{{cite web|last=Lasher|first=Lawrence|title=Pioneer Mission Status |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20000408152959/http://spaceprojects.arc.nasa.gov/Space_Projects/pioneer/PNStat.html|publisher=NASA. Retrieved 8 April 2000}}</ref> |
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|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: |
| style="background: #FFE4E1;" | [[File:Psi (greek letter).svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Particle physics|Particle physics]] |
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| 10<sup>106</sup> – 2.1×10<sup>109</sup> |
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| 2 million |
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| The estimated time until ultramassive black holes of 10<sup>14</sup> (100 trillion) solar masses, predicted to form during the gravitational collapse of galaxy [[supercluster]]s,<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Frautschi |first=S. |year=1982 |title=Entropy in an expanding universe |journal=Science |volume=217 |issue=4560 |pages=593–599 |bibcode=1982Sci...217..593F |doi=10.1126/science.217.4560.593 |pmid=17817517 |s2cid=27717447 |quote=p. 596: table 1 and section "black hole decay" and previous sentence on that page: "Since we have assumed a maximum scale of gravitational binding – for instance, superclusters of galaxies – black hole formation eventually comes to an end in our model, with masses of up to 10<sup>14</sup>{{solar mass}} ... the timescale for black holes to radiate away all their energy ranges ... to 10<sup>106</sup> years for black holes of up to 10<sup>14</sup>{{solar mass}}}}"</ref> decay by Hawking radiation.<ref name="Page 1976"/> This marks the end of the Black Hole Era. Beyond this time, if protons do decay, the universe enters the [[Dark Era]], in which all physical objects have decayed to subatomic particles, gradually winding down to their final energy state in the [[heat death of the universe]].<ref name="dying"/><ref name="five ages"/> |
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| ''[[Pioneer 10]]'' passes near the bright star [[Aldebaran]].<ref name="Pioneer Ames" /> |
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|- |
|- |
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| style="background: |
| style="background: #FFE4E1;" | [[File:Psi (greek letter).svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Particle physics|Particle physics]] |
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| 10<sup>161</sup> |
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| 4 million |
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| A 2018 estimate of Standard Model lifetime before [[False vacuum#Electroweak vacuum decay|collapse of a false vacuum]]; 95% confidence interval is 10<sup>65</sup> to 10<sup>1383</sup> years due in part to uncertainty about the top quark's mass.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Andreassen |first1=Anders |last2=Frost |first2=William |last3=Schwartz |first3=Matthew D. |date=12 March 2018 |title=Scale-invariant instantons and the complete lifetime of the standard model |journal=Physical Review D |volume=97 |issue=5 |page=056006 |arxiv=1707.08124 |bibcode=2018PhRvD..97e6006A |doi=10.1103/PhysRevD.97.056006 |s2cid=118843387}}</ref><ref group="note">Manuscript was updated after publication; lifetime numbers are taken from the latest revision at https://arxiv.org/abs/1707.08124.</ref> |
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| ''[[Pioneer 11]]'' passes near one of the stars in the constellation [[Aquila (constellation)|Aquila]].<ref name="Pioneer Ames" /> |
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|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: |
| style="background: #FFE4E1;" | [[File:Psi (greek letter).svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Particle physics|Particle physics]] |
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| 10<sup>200</sup> |
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| 8 million |
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| The highest estimate for the time it would take for all nucleons in the observable universe to decay, if they do not decay via the above process, but instead through any one of many different mechanisms allowed in modern particle physics (higher-order [[Baryon number|baryon non-conservation]] processes, [[virtual black hole]]s, [[sphaleron]]s, etc.) on time scales of 10<sup>46</sup> to 10<sup>200</sup> years.<ref name="five ages"/> |
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| The ''[[LAGEOS]]'' satellites' orbits will decay, and they will re-enter Earth's atmosphere, carrying with them a message to any far future descendants of humanity, and a map of the continents as they are expected to appear then.<ref name="lageos" /> |
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|- |
|- |
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| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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| 10<sup>1100–32000</sup> |
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| 1 billion |
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| The estimated time for black dwarfs of 1.2 solar masses or more to undergo supernovae as a result of slow [[silicon]]–[[nickel]]–[[iron]] fusion, as the declining electron fraction lowers their [[Chandrasekhar limit]], assuming protons do not decay.<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Caplan |first=M. E. |date=7 August 2020 |title=Black Dwarf Supernova in the Far Future |journal=[[MNRAS]] |volume=497 |pages=4357–4362 |arxiv=2008.02296 |bibcode=2020MNRAS.497.4357C |doi=10.1093/mnras/staa2262 |s2cid=221005728 |number=1–6|doi-access=free }}</ref> |
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| Estimated lifespan of the two [[Voyager Golden Record]]s, before the information stored on them is rendered unrecoverable.<ref>{{cite AV media |people=Jad Abumrad and Robert Krulwich |date=12 February 2010 |title= Carl Sagan And Ann Druyan's Ultimate Mix Tape |url=http://www.npr.org/2010/02/12/123534818/carl-sagan-and-ann-druyans-ultimate-mix-tape |medium=Radio |publisher=National Public Radio }}</ref> |
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|} |
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==Technological projects== |
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{| class="wikitable" style="width: 100%; margin-right: 0;" |
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|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
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! scope="col" | [[File:Key.svg|12px]] |
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| 10<sup>1500</sup> |
|||
! scope="col" | Years from now |
|||
| Assuming protons do not decay, estimated time until all [[baryon]]ic matter in stellar remnants, planets and planetary-mass objects has either fused together via [[muon-catalyzed fusion]] to form [[iron-56]] or decayed from a higher mass element into iron-56 to form [[iron star]]s.<ref name="dyson"/> |
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! scope="col" | Event |
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|- |
|- |
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| [[File: |
| style="background: #FFE4E1;" | [[File:Psi (greek letter).svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Particle physics|Particle physics]] |
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| <math>10^{10^{26}}</math><ref name="bignumber" group="note"><math>10^{10^{26}}</math> is 1 followed by 10<sup>26</sup> (100 septillion) zeroes.</ref><ref name="bignumber2" group="note">Although listed in years for convenience, the numbers at this point are so vast that their [[Numerical digit|digits]] would remain unchanged<!-- Their VALUES would barely change. Their DIGITS wouldn't change at all.--> regardless of which conventional units they were listed in, be they [[nanosecond]]s or [[Stellar evolution|star lifespans]].</ref> |
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| 10,000 |
|||
| |
| A low estimate for the time until all iron stars collapse via [[quantum tunnelling]] into [[black hole]]s, assuming no [[proton decay]] or [[virtual black hole]]s, and that Planck-scale black holes can exist.<ref name="dyson"/> |
||
On this vast timescale, even ultra-stable iron stars will have been destroyed by quantum-tunnelling events. At this lower end of the timescale, iron stars decay directly to black holes, as this decay mode is much more favourable than decaying into a neutron star (which has an expected timescale of <math>10^{10^{76}}</math> years)<ref name="dyson"/> and later decaying into a black hole. The subsequent evaporation of each resulting black hole into subatomic particles (a process lasting roughly [[Googol|10<sup>100</sup>]] years), and subsequent shift to the [[Dark Era]] is on these timescales instantaneous. |
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Estimated lifespan of the [[HD-Rosetta]] analog disc, an [[Focused ion beam|ion beam-etched]] writing medium on nickel plate, a technology developed at [[Los Alamos National Laboratory]] and later commercialized. (The Rosetta Project is named after and uses this technology). |
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|- |
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| [[File: |
| style="background: #FFE4E1;" | [[File:Psi (greek letter).svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Particle physics|Particle physics]] |
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| <math>10^{10^{50}}</math><ref name="prob" group="note"/><ref name="bignumber2" group="note"/><wbr/><ref group="note"><math>10^{10^{50}}</math> is 1 followed by 10<sup>50</sup> (100 quindecillion) zeroes.</ref> |
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| 100,000+ |
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| The estimated time for a [[Boltzmann brain]] to appear in the vacuum via a spontaneous [[entropy]] decrease.<ref name="linde"/> |
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| Estimated lifespan of Memory of Mankind (MOM) [[self storage]]-style repository in [[Hallstatt]] salt mine in Austria, which stores information on [[Clay tablet|inscribed tablets]] of [[stoneware]].<ref>{{cite web | last = | first = | title =Memory of Mankind | work = | publisher = | date = | url =http://www.memory-of-mankind.com/en/home.html | doi = | accessdate = | archiveurl =http://web.archive.org/web/20150123051515/http://www.memory-of-mankind.com/en/home.html | archivedate =January 23, 2015}}</ref> |
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|- |
|- |
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| [[File: |
| style="background: #FFE4E1;" | [[File:Psi (greek letter).svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Particle physics|Particle physics]] |
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| <math>10^{10^{76}}</math><ref name="bignumber2" group="note"/> |
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| 1 million |
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| Highest estimate for the time until all iron stars collapse via quantum tunnelling into neutron stars or black holes, assuming no proton decay or virtual black holes, and that black holes below the Chandrasekhar mass cannot form directly.<ref name="dyson"/> On these timescales, neutron stars above the Chandrasekhar mass rapidly collapse into black holes, and black holes formed by these processes instantly evaporate into subatomic particles. |
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| Planned lifespan of the Human Document Project being developed at the [[University of Twente]] in the Netherlands.<ref>{{cite web|title=Human Document Project 2014|url=http://hudoc2014.manucodiata.org/}}</ref> |
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This is also the highest estimated possible time for the Black Hole Era (and subsequent Dark Era) to commence. Beyond this point, it is almost certain that the universe will be an almost pure vacuum, with all baryonic matter having decayed into subatomic particles, gradually winding down their energy level until it reaches its [[Heat death of the universe|final energy state]], assuming it does not happen before this time. |
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|- |
|- |
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| [[File: |
| style="background: #FFE4E1;" | [[File:Psi (greek letter).svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Particle physics|Particle physics]] |
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| <math>10^{10^{120}}</math><ref name="bignumber2" group="note"/> |
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| 1 million |
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| The highest estimate for the time it takes for the universe to reach its final energy state.<ref name="linde"/> |
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| Estimated lifespan of "[[Fortress of Solitude#Superman film series|Superman memory crystal]]" data storage using [[Mode-locking|femtosecond laser]]-etched [[nanostructure]]s in glass, a technology developed at the [[University of Southampton]].<ref>{{cite web|title=5D ‘Superman memory’ crystal could lead to unlimited lifetime data storage|url=http://www.southampton.ac.uk/mediacentre/news/2013/jul/13_131.shtml|publisher=University of Southhampton|date=9 July 2013}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal |last=Zhang|first=J. |last2=Gecevičius|first2=M. |last3=Beresna|first3=M. |last4=Kazansky|first4=P. G. |title=5D Data Storage by Ultrafast Laser Nanostructuring in Glass|journal=CLEO: Science and Innovations|date=June 2013|pages=CTh5D-9|url=http://www.orc.soton.ac.uk/fileadmin/downloads/5D_Data_Storage_by_Ultrafast_Laser_Nanostructuring_in_Glass.pdf|publisher=Optical Society of America}}</ref> |
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| [[File: |
| style="background: #FFE4E1;" | [[File:Psi (greek letter).svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Particle physics|Particle physics]] |
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| <math>10^{10^{10^{56}}}</math><ref name="prob" group="note"/><ref name="bignumber2" group="note"/> |
|||
| 1 billion |
|||
| Around this vast timeframe, quantum tunnelling in any isolated patch of the universe could generate new [[Inflation (cosmology)|inflationary events]], resulting in new Big Bangs giving birth to new universes.<ref name="carroll and chen"/><!-- Quote from source: "The important feature of this probability, calculated in the context of a specific model, is not its actual numerical value, but simply the fact that it is nonzero." --> |
|||
| Estimated lifespan of "[[Molecular shuttle|Nanoshuttle]] memory device" using an [[Nanoscale iron particles|iron nanoparticle]] moved as a [[molecular switch]] through a [[carbon nanotube]], a technology developed at the [[University of California at Berkeley]].<ref>{{cite journal|last=Begtrup|first=G. E.|display-authors=4|author2=Gannett, W. |author3=Yuzvinsky, T. D. |author4=Crespi, V. H. |author5= Zettl, A. |title=Nanoscale Reversible Mass Transport for Archival Memory|journal=Nano Letters|date=13 May 2009|volume=9|issue=5|pages=1835–1838|doi=10.1021/nl803800c|url=http://www.physics.berkeley.edu/research/zettl/pdf/363.NanoLet.9-Begtrup.pdf|bibcode = 2009NanoL...9.1835B }}</ref> |
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''(Because the total number of ways in which all the subatomic particles in the observable universe can be combined is <math>10^{10^{115}}</math>,<ref name="TegmarkPUstaple">{{Cite journal |last=Tegmark |first=Max |date=7 February 2003 |title=Parallel universes. Not just a staple of science fiction, other universes are a direct implication of cosmological observations |journal=Scientific American |volume=288 |issue=5 |pages=40–51 |arxiv=astro-ph/0302131 |bibcode=2003SciAm.288e..40T |doi=10.1038/scientificamerican0503-40 |pmid=12701329}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last=Tegmark |first=Max |author-link=Max Tegmark |date=7 February 2003 |editor-last=Barrow |editor-first=J. D. |editor2-last=Davies |editor2-first=P. C. W. |editor3-last=Harper |editor3-first=C. L. |title=Parallel Universes |journal=In "Science and Ultimate Reality: From Quantum to Cosmos", Honoring John Wheeler's 90th Birthday |volume=288 |issue=5 |pages=40–51 |arxiv=astro-ph/0302131 |bibcode=2003SciAm.288e..40T |doi=10.1038/scientificamerican0503-40 |pmid=12701329}}</ref> a number which, when multiplied by <math>10^{10^{10^{56}}}</math>, is approximately <math>10^{10^{10^{56}}}</math>, this is also the time required for a quantum-tunnelled and [[quantum fluctuation]]-generated Big Bang to produce a new universe identical to our own, assuming that every new universe contained at least the same number of subatomic particles and obeyed laws of physics within [[String theory landscape|the landscape]] predicted by [[string theory]].)''<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Douglas |first=M. |author-link=Michael R. Douglas |date=21 March 2003 |title=The statistics of string / M theory vacua |journal=JHEP |volume=0305 |issue=46 |page=046 |arxiv=hep-th/0303194 |bibcode=2003JHEP...05..046D |doi=10.1088/1126-6708/2003/05/046 |s2cid=650509}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Ashok |first1=S. |last2=Douglas |first2=M. |year=2004 |title=Counting flux vacua |journal=JHEP |volume=0401 |issue=60 |page=060 |arxiv=hep-th/0307049 |bibcode=2004JHEP...01..060A |doi=10.1088/1126-6708/2004/01/060 |s2cid=1969475}}</ref> |
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|} |
|} |
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== |
===Humanity and human constructs=== |
||
To date, five spacecraft (''[[Voyager 1]]'', ''[[Voyager 2]]'', ''[[Pioneer 10]]'', ''[[Pioneer 11]]'' and ''[[New Horizons]]'') are on [[List of artificial objects leaving the Solar System|trajectories that will take them out of the Solar System]] and into [[interstellar space]]. Barring an extremely unlikely collision with some object, all five should persist indefinitely.<ref name="time"/> |
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{| class="wikitable" style="width: 100%; margin-right: 0;" |
{| class="wikitable" style="width: 100%; margin-right: 0;" |
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|- |
|- |
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! scope="col" | [[File:Key.svg| |
! scope="col" | [[File:Key.svg|16px|link=#Keys]] |
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! scope="col" | |
! scope="col" | Date ([[Common Era|CE]]) or {{nowrap|years from now}} |
||
! scope="col" | Event |
! scope="col" | Event |
||
|- |
|- |
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| style="background: |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
||
| |
| 1,000 |
||
| The [[SNAP-10A]] nuclear satellite, launched in 1965 into an orbit {{cvt|700|km}} above Earth, will return to the surface.<ref>{{cite book | last = Staub | first = D.W. | title = SNAP 10 Summary Report | publisher = Atomics International Division of North American Aviation, Inc., Canoga Park, California | date = 25 March 1967 | id = NAA-SR-12073}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |url=http://nla.gov.au/nla.news-article110889894 |title=U.S. ADMISSION: Satellite mishap released rays |newspaper=[[The Canberra Times]] |volume=52 |issue=15,547 |location=Australian Capital Territory, Australia |date=30 March 1978 |access-date=12 August 2017 |page=5 |via=National Library of Australia |archive-date=21 August 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210821081410/https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/110889894 |url-status=live |quote=Launched in 1965 and carrying about 4.5 kilograms of uranium-235, Snap 10A is in a 1,000-year orbit ...}}</ref> |
|||
| Estimated atmospheric lifetime of [[tetrafluoromethane]], the most durable [[greenhouse gas]].<ref>{{cite web|title=Tetrafluoromethane|url=http://toxnet.nlm.nih.gov/cgi-bin/sis/search/a?dbs+hsdb:@term+@DOCNO+1327|website=[[Hazardous Substances Data Bank|Toxicology Data Network (TOXNET)]]|publisher=United States National Library of Medicine|accessdate=4 September 2014}}</ref> |
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|- |
|- |
||
| [[File:Simpleicons Interface user-male-black-silhouette.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=technology and culture|Technology and culture]] |
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| |
| 3183 CE |
||
| The ''[[Zeitpyramide]]'' (''time pyramid''), a public art work started in 1993 at [[Wemding]], [[Germany]], is scheduled for completion.<ref name="Conception" >[http://www.zeitpyramide.de/ Conception] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110719115509/http://www.zeitpyramide.de/ |date=19 July 2011 }} Official ''Zeitpyramide'' website. Retrieved 14 December 2010.</ref> |
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| Current [[glass]] objects in the environment will be decomposed.<ref>{{cite web|title=Time it takes for garbage to decompose in the environment|url=http://des.nh.gov/organization/divisions/water/wmb/coastal/trash/documents/marine_debris.pdf|publisher=New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services}}</ref> |
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[[:Category:Granite sculptures|Various public monuments]] composed of hard [[granite]] will have eroded one meter, in a moderate climate, assuming a rate of 1 [[Bubnoff unit]] (1 mm / 1,000 years, or ~1 inch / 10,000 years).<ref>{{cite book|last=Lyle|first=Paul|title=Between Rocks And Hard Places: Discovering Ireland's Northern Landscapes|date=2010|publisher=Geological Survey of Northern Ireland}}</ref> |
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Without maintenance, the [[Great Pyramid of Giza]] will erode into unrecognizability.<ref>{{Citation |last=Weisman |first=Alan |authorlink=Alan Weisman |title=The World Without Us |pages= 171–172 |date=2007-07-10 |publisher=Thomas Dunne Books/St. Martin's Press |location=New York |isbn=0-312-34729-4 |oclc=122261590}}</ref> |
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On the [[Moon]], [[Neil Armstrong]]'s "one small step" [[footprint]] at [[Tranquility Base]] will erode by this time, along with those left by all [[List of Apollo astronauts#Apollo astronauts who walked on the Moon|twelve Apollo moonwalkers]], due to the accumulated effects of [[space weathering]].<ref>{{cite web|title=Apollo 11 -- First Footprint on the Moon|url=http://www.nasa.gov/audience/forstudents/k-4/home/F_Apollo_11.html|work=Student Features|publisher=NASA}}</ref><ref>{{cite book|last=Meadows|first=A. J.|title=The Future of the Universe|date=2007|publisher=Springer|pages=81–83}}</ref> (Normal erosion processes active on Earth are not present due to the Moon's [[Atmosphere of the Moon|almost complete lack of atmosphere]]). |
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|- |
|- |
||
| [[File:Simpleicons Interface user-male-black-silhouette.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=technology and culture|Technology and culture]] |
|||
| |
| 2,000 |
||
| Maximum lifespan of the data films in [[Arctic World Archive]], a repository that contains code of [[open-source]] projects on [[GitHub]] along with other data of historical interest (if stored in optimum conditions).<ref>{{cite web |last=Linder |first=Courtney |title=Microsoft is Storing Source Code in an Arctic Cave |url=https://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/security/a29811351/microsoft-secret-code-vault/ |website=Popular Mechanics |access-date=25 July 2021 |date=15 November 2019 |archive-date=16 March 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210316200734/https://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/security/a29811351/microsoft-secret-code-vault/ |url-status=live}}</ref> |
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|Without maintenance, [[Mount Rushmore]] will erode into unrecognizability.<ref>{{Citation |last=Weisman |first=Alan |authorlink=Alan Weisman |title=The World Without Us |page= 182 |date=2007-07-10 |publisher=Thomas Dunne Books/St. Martin's Press |location=New York |isbn=0-312-34729-4 |oclc=122261590}}</ref> |
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|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: # |
| style="background: #FFE4E1;" | [[File:Psi (greek letter).svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Particle physics|Particle physics]] |
||
| 10,000 |
|||
| 100 million |
|||
|The [[Waste Isolation Pilot Plant]] for nuclear weapons waste is planned to be protected until this time, with a "Permanent Marker" system designed to warn off visitors through multiple languages (the six [[UN languages]] and [[Navajo language|Navajo]]) and [[pictogram]]s.<ref>{{cite web|title=Permanent Markers Implementation Plan|url=http://www.wipp.energy.gov/picsprog/test1/Permanent_Markers_Implementation_Plan_rev1.pdf|publisher=[[United States Department of Energy]]|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060928144722/http://www.wipp.energy.gov/PICsProg/Test1/Permanent_Markers_Implementation_Plan_rev1.pdf|archive-date=28 September 2006|url-status=dead|date=30 August 2004}}</ref> The [[Human Interference Task Force]] has provided the theoretical basis for United States plans for future nuclear [[semiotics]].<ref>{{Cite web |title=How do we warn future generations about our toxic waste? |url=https://newhumanist.org.uk/5958/how-do-we-warn-future-generations-about-our-toxic-waste |access-date=2022-08-14 |website=newhumanist.org.uk |date=5 May 2022 |language=en-GB}}</ref> |
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| Future archaeologists should be able to identify an "Urban [[Stratum]]" of fossilized [[port|great coastal cities]], mostly through the remains of underground infrastructure such as [[Foundation (engineering)|building foundations]] and [[utility tunnel]]s.<ref>{{Citation |last=Zalasiewicz |first=Jan |title=The Earth After Us: What legacy will humans leave in the rocks? |date=2008-09-25 |publisher=Oxford University Press}}, [http://www.stanford.edu/dept/archaeology/cgi-bin/archaeolog/?p=239 Review in Stanford Archaeolog]</ref> |
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| |
|- |
||
| [[File:Simpleicons Interface user-male-black-silhouette.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=technology and culture|Technology and culture]] |
|||
| 10,000 |
|||
| Planned lifespan of the [[Long Now Foundation]]'s several ongoing projects, including a 10,000-year clock known as the [[Clock of the Long Now]], the [[Rosetta Project]] and the [[Long Bet Project]].<ref name="longnow"/> |
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Estimated lifespan of the [[HD-Rosetta]] analog disc—an [[Focused ion beam|ion beam-etched]] writing medium on nickel plate, a technology developed at [[Los Alamos National Laboratory]] and later commercialized. (The Rosetta Project uses this technology, named after the [[Rosetta Stone]].) |
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==Astronomical events== |
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Extremely rare astronomical events beginning at the 11th millennium AD (Year 10,001). |
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{| class="wikitable" style="width: 100%; margin-right: 0;" |
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|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: #CEFF00;" | [[File:Butterfly icon (Noun Project).svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Biology|Biology]] |
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! scope="col" | |
|||
| 10,000 |
|||
! scope="col" | Date / Years from now |
|||
| Projected lifespan of Norway's [[Svalbard Global Seed Vault]].<ref>{{cite news|title=A Visit to the Doomsday Vault|url=https://www.cbsnews.com/news/a-visit-to-the-doomsday-vault/|date=20 March 2008|work=CBS News|access-date=5 January 2018|archive-date=8 March 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210308220206/https://www.cbsnews.com/news/a-visit-to-the-doomsday-vault/|url-status=live}}</ref> |
|||
! scope="col" | Event |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
| [[File:Simpleicons Interface user-male-black-silhouette.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=technology and culture|Technology and culture]] |
|||
| |
| 10,000 |
||
| Most probable estimated lifespan of technological civilization, according to [[Frank Drake]]'s original formulation of the [[Drake equation]].<ref>{{cite book|last1=Smith|first1=Cameron|last2=Davies|first2=Evan T.|title=Emigrating Beyond Earth: Human Adaptation and Space Colonization|date=2012|publisher=Springer|page=258 |isbn=978-1-4614-1165-9}}</ref> |
|||
| A simultaneous [[total solar eclipse]] and [[transit of Mercury]].<ref name="Solar_eclipses_during_transits" /> |
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|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: |
| style="background: #CEFF00;" | [[File:Butterfly icon (Noun Project).svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Biology|Biology]] |
||
| |
| 10,000 |
||
| If [[globalization]] trends lead to [[panmixia]], [[human genetic variation]] will no longer be regionalized, as the [[effective population size]] will equal the actual population size.<ref>{{cite book|last1=Klein|first1=Jan|last2=Takahata|first2=Naoyuki|title=Where Do We Come From?: The Molecular Evidence for Human Descent|date=2002|publisher=Springer|page=395|isbn=978-3-662-04847-4}}</ref> |
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| The planets [[Mercury (planet)|Mercury]] and [[Venus]] will both [[orbital node|cross]] the [[ecliptic]] at the same time.<ref name="Solar_eclipses_during_transits" /> |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
| [[File:Simpleicons Interface user-male-black-silhouette.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=technology and culture|technology and culture]] |
|||
| 20,000 |
|||
| 25 August, AD 11,268 |
|||
| According to the [[glottochronology]] linguistic model of [[Morris Swadesh]], future languages should retain just one out of every 100 "core vocabulary" words on their [[Swadesh list]] compared to that of their current progenitors.<ref>{{cite book|last=Greenberg|first=Joseph|title=Language in the Americas|date=1987|publisher=Stanford University Press|pages=341–342|isbn=978-0804713153}}</ref> |
|||
| A simultaneous [[total solar eclipse]] and [[transit of Mercury]].<ref name="Solar_eclipses_during_transits" /> |
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The [[Chernobyl Exclusion Zone]] is expected to become habitable again.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Blakemore |first1=Erin |title=Chernobyl disaster facts and information |url=https://www.nationalgeographic.com/culture/article/chernobyl-disaster |access-date=5 November 2024 |work=Culture |publisher=National Geographic |date=17 May 2019 |language=en}}</ref> |
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|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: |
| style="background: #FFE4E1;" | [[File:Psi (greek letter).svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Particle physics|Particle physics]] |
||
| 24,110 |
|||
| 28 February, AD 11,575 |
|||
| [[Half-life]] of [[plutonium-239]].{{NUBASE2016|ref}} At this point the [[Chernobyl Exclusion Zone]], the {{convert|2600|km2|adj=mid}} area of [[Ukraine]] and [[Belarus]] left deserted by the 1986 [[Chernobyl disaster]], will return to normal levels of radiation.<ref name=TimeDisaster>{{cite book|title=Time: Disasters that Shook the World|publisher=Time Home Entertainment|location=New York City|year=2012|isbn=978-1-60320-247-3}}</ref> |
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| A simultaneous [[annular solar eclipse]] and transit of Mercury.<ref name="Solar_eclipses_during_transits" /> |
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|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
||
| 25,000 |
|||
| 17 September, AD 13,425 |
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| The [[Arecibo message]], a collection of radio data transmitted on 16 November 1974, will reach the distance of its destination: the [[globular cluster]] [[Messier 13]].<ref name="glob"/> This is the only [[interstellar radio message]] sent to such a distant region of the galaxy. There will be a 24-light-year shift in the cluster's position in the galaxy during the time taken for the message to reach it, but as the cluster is 168 light-years in diameter, the message will still reach its destination.<ref>{{cite web|title=In regard to the email from|publisher=Science 2.0|first=Dave |last=Deamer |url=http://www.science20.com/comments/28100/In_regard_to_the_email_from |access-date=14 November 2014 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150924095532/http://www.science20.com/comments/28100/In_regard_to_the_email_from |archive-date=24 September 2015|url-status=dead}}</ref> Any reply will take at least another 25,000 years from the time of its transmission (assuming no [[faster-than-light communication]] is possible). |
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| A near-simultaneous transit of Venus and Mercury.<ref name="Solar_eclipses_during_transits" /> |
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|- |
|- |
||
| [[File:Simpleicons Interface user-male-black-silhouette.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=technology and culture|technology and culture]] |
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| 14 September 30828 CE |
|||
| AD 13,727 |
|||
| Maximum system time for 64-bit [[NTFS]]-based [[Windows]] operating system.<ref>{{cite news |title=Interpretation of NTFS Timestamps |url=https://www.forensicfocus.com/articles/interpretation-of-ntfs-timestamps/ |website=Forensic Focus |access-date=31 July 2021 |date=6 April 2013 |archive-date=8 March 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210308204004/https://www.forensicfocus.com/articles/interpretation-of-ntfs-timestamps/ |url-status=live }}</ref> |
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| The Earth's [[axial precession]] will have made [[Vega]] the northern [[pole star]].<ref name="vega" /><ref name="plait" /><ref>{{cite book|last=Falkner|first=David E.|title=The Mythology of the Night Sky|date=2011|publisher=Springer|page=116}}</ref><ref>{{citation | url=http://www.stellarium.org | title=Calculation by the ''Stellarium'' application version 0.10.2 | accessdate=2009-07-28 }}</ref> |
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|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
||
| 33,800 |
|||
| 13,000 years{{cn|reason=We are not now exactly halfway around the precessional cycle from the point described|date=October 2015}} |
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| ''[[Pioneer 10]]'' passes within 3.4 light-years of [[Ross 248]].<ref name="lavender">{{Cite journal |title=Future stellar flybys of the Voyager and Pioneer spacecraft |journal=Research Notes of the American Astronomical Society|volume= 3|pages = 59 |number=59|doi=10.3847/2515-5172/ab158e |date = 3 April 2019 |last1=Bailer-Jones |first1=Coryn A. L. |first2=Davide |last2=Farnocchia |arxiv=1912.03503 |bibcode = 2019RNAAS...3...59B |s2cid = 134524048 |doi-access=free }}</ref> |
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| By this point, halfway through the precessional cycle, Earth's [[axial tilt]] will be reversed, causing [[summer]] and [[winter]] to occur on opposite sides of Earth's orbit. This means that the seasons in the [[northern hemisphere]], which experiences more pronounced seasonal variation due to a higher percentage of land, will be even more extreme, as it will be facing towards the Sun at Earth's [[perihelion]] and away from the Sun at [[aphelion]].<ref name="plait" /> |
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|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
||
| 42,200 |
|||
| 5 April, AD 15,232 |
|||
| |
| ''[[Voyager 2]]'' passes within 1.7 light-years of Ross 248.<ref name="lavender"/> |
||
|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
||
| 44,100 |
|||
| 20 April, AD 15,790 |
|||
| ''[[Voyager 1]]'' passes within 1.8 light-years of [[Gliese 445]].<ref name="lavender"/> |
|||
| A simultaneous annular solar eclipse and transit of Mercury.<ref name="Solar_eclipses_during_transits" /> |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
||
| 46,600 |
|||
| 14,000-17,000 years |
|||
| ''[[Pioneer 11]]'' passes within 1.9 light-years of Gliese 445.<ref name="lavender"/> |
|||
| The Earth's [[axial precession]] will make [[Canopus]] the [[South Star]], but it will only be within 10° of the [[South Celestial Pole|south celestial pole]].<ref>{{cite web |
|||
|url =http://myweb.tiscali.co.uk/moonkmft/Articles/Precession.html |
|||
| title =Precession |
|||
|author=Kieron Taylor |
|||
|publisher=Sheffield Astronomical Society |
|||
|date=1 March 1994 |
|||
|accessdate=2013-08-06}}</ref> |
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|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: |
| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
||
| |
| 50,000 |
||
| Estimated atmospheric lifetime of [[tetrafluoromethane]], the most durable [[greenhouse gas]].<ref>{{cite web |last1=Artaxo |first1=Paulo |last2=Berntsen |first2=Terje |last3=Betts |first3=Richard |last4=Fahey |first4=David W. |last5=Haywood |first5=James |last6=Lean |first6=Judith |author6-link=Judith Lean |last7=Lowe |first7=David C. |last8=Myhre |first8=Gunnar |last9=Nganga |first9=John |last10=Prinn |first10=Ronald |last11=Raga |first11=Graciela |last12=Schulz |first12=Michael |last13=van Dorland |first13=Robert |title=Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing |url=https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ar4-wg1-chapter2-1.pdf |publisher=[[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]] |access-date=17 March 2021 |page=212 |date=February 2018 |archive-date=18 February 2019 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190218141843/https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ar4-wg1-chapter2-1.pdf |url-status=live }}</ref> |
|||
| [[Thuban]] will be the northern [[pole star]].<ref>{{cite book|last=Falkner|first=David E.|title=The Mythology of the Night Sky|date=2011|publisher=Springer|page=102}}</ref> |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
||
| |
| 90,300 |
||
| ''[[Pioneer 10]]'' passes within 0.76 light-years of [[HIP 117795]].<ref name="lavender"/> |
|||
| [[Polaris]] will again be the northern [[pole star]].<ref>{{cite book|last=Komzsik|first=Louis|title=Wheels in the Sky: Keep on Turning|date=2010|publisher=Trafford Publishing|page=140}}</ref> |
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|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: |
| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
||
| |
| 100,000+ |
||
| Time required to [[terraforming of Mars|terraform Mars]] with an [[oxygen]]-rich breathable atmosphere, using only plants with solar efficiency comparable to the biosphere currently found on Earth.<ref>{{cite journal|last=McKay|first=Christopher P.|author2=Toon, Owen B.|author3=Kasting, James F.|title=Making Mars habitable|journal=Nature|date=8 August 1991|volume=352|issue=6335|pages=489–496|doi=10.1038/352489a0|pmid=11538095|bibcode=1991Natur.352..489M|s2cid=2815367|url=https://zenodo.org/record/1233115|access-date=23 June 2019|archive-date=8 March 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210308162717/https://zenodo.org/record/1233115|url-status=live}}</ref> |
|||
| The [[Orbital eccentricity|eccentricity]] of Earth's orbit will reach a minimum, 0.00236 (it is now 0.01671).<ref name="mini2" /><ref name="laskar" /> |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
| [[File:Simpleicons Interface user-male-black-silhouette.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Technology and culture|Technology and culture]] |
|||
| 100,000–1 million |
|||
| October, AD 38,172 |
|||
| Estimated time by which humanity could colonize the Milky Way galaxy and become capable of [[Kardashev scale|harnessing all the energy of the galaxy]], assuming a velocity of 10% the [[speed of light]].<ref name="typeiii"/> |
|||
| A [[transit of Uranus from Neptune]], the rarest of all planetary transits.<ref name="solex" /> |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: |
| style="background: #FFE4E1;" | [[File:Psi (greek letter).svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Particle physics|Particle physics]] |
||
| |
| 250,000 |
||
| The estimated minimum time at which the spent [[plutonium]] stored at New Mexico's [[Waste Isolation Pilot Plant]] will cease to be radiologically lethal to humans.<ref>{{cite web|first=David|last=Biello|url=https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/nuclear-waste-lethal-trash-or-renewable-energy-source/|work=Scientific American|title=Spent Nuclear Fuel: A Trash Heap Deadly for 250,000 Years or a Renewable Energy Source?|date=28 January 2009|access-date=5 January 2018|archive-date=10 July 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210710002930/https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/nuclear-waste-lethal-trash-or-renewable-energy-source/|url-status=live}}</ref> |
|||
| The planets [[Mercury (planet)|Mercury]] and [[Venus]] will both [[orbital node|cross]] the [[ecliptic]] at the same time.<ref name="Solar_eclipses_during_transits" /> |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
| [[File:Simpleicons Interface user-male-black-silhouette.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=technology and culture|technology and culture]] |
|||
| 13 September 275760 CE |
|||
| 26 July, AD 69,163 |
|||
| <!-- JS does not have an "overflow", just a hard value set by the ECMA Epoch -->Maximum system time for the [[JavaScript]] programming language.<ref>{{cite web |title=Date - JavaScript |url=https://developer.mozilla.org/en-US/docs/Web/JavaScript/Reference/Global_Objects/Date |website=developer.mozilla.org |publisher=[[Mozilla]] |access-date=27 July 2021 |archive-date=21 July 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210721082721/https://developer.mozilla.org/en-US/docs/Web/JavaScript/Reference/Global_Objects/Date |url-status=live }}</ref> |
|||
| A simultaneous transit of Venus and Mercury.<ref name="Solar_eclipses_during_transits" /> |
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|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
||
| |
| 492,300 |
||
| ''[[Voyager 1]]'' passes within 1.3 light-years of [[HD 28343]].<ref name="lavender"/> |
|||
| [[Comet Hyakutake]] returns to the inner solar system, after traveling in its orbit out to its [[aphelion]] 3410 A.U. from the Sun and back.<ref>{{cite journal | author= James, N.D | title=Comet C/1996 B2 (Hyakutake): The Great Comet of 1996 | journal=Journal of the British Astronomical Association | date=1998 | volume=108 | pages=157 | bibcode = 1998JBAA..108..157J }}</ref> |
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|- |
|- |
||
| [[File:Simpleicons Interface user-male-black-silhouette.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=technology and culture|technology and culture]] |
|||
| 1 million |
|||
| 27 and 28 March, AD 224,508 |
|||
| Estimated lifespan of [[Memory of Mankind]] (MOM) [[self storage]]-style repository in [[Hallstatt]] salt mine in Austria, which stores information on [[Clay tablet|inscribed tablets]] of [[stoneware]].<ref>{{cite web | title =Memory of Mankind | url =https://www.memory-of-mankind.com/ | access-date =4 March 2019 | archive-date =16 July 2021 | archive-url =https://web.archive.org/web/20210716092821/https://www.memory-of-mankind.com/ | url-status =live }}</ref> |
|||
| Respectively, Venus and then Mercury will transit the Sun.<ref name="Solar_eclipses_during_transits" /> |
|||
Planned lifespan of the Human Document Project being developed at the [[University of Twente]] in the Netherlands.<ref>{{cite web|title=Human Document Project 2014|url=http://hudoc2014.manucodiata.org/|access-date=19 May 2014|archive-date=19 May 2014|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140519094549/http://hudoc2014.manucodiata.org/|url-status=live}}</ref> |
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|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: |
| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
||
| 1 million |
|||
| AD 571,741 |
|||
| Current [[glass]] objects in the environment will be decomposed.<ref>{{cite web|title=Time it takes for garbage to decompose in the environment|url=http://des.nh.gov/organization/divisions/water/wmb/coastal/trash/documents/marine_debris.pdf|publisher=New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services|access-date=23 May 2014|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140609083232/http://des.nh.gov/organization/divisions/water/wmb/coastal/trash/documents/marine_debris.pdf|archive-date=9 June 2014|url-status=dead}}</ref> |
|||
| A simultaneous transit of Venus and the [[Earth]] [[Transit of Earth from Mars|as seen from Mars]]<ref name="Solar_eclipses_during_transits" /> |
|||
|- |
|||
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
|||
| 6 million |
|||
| [[C/1999 F1|Comet C/1999 F1 (Catalina)]], one of the longest period comets known, returns to the inner solar system, after traveling in its orbit out to its aphelion 66,600 A.U. (1.05 light years) from the Sun and back.<ref>{{cite web |
|||
|author=[[JPL Horizons On-Line Ephemeris System|Horizons]] output |
|||
|url=http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons.cgi?find_body=1&body_group=sb&sstr=C/1999+F1 |
|||
|title=Barycentric Osculating Orbital Elements for Comet C/1999 F1 (Catalina) |
|||
|accessdate=2011-03-07}}</ref> |
|||
|} |
|||
[[:Category:Granite sculptures|Various public monuments]] composed of hard [[granite]] will have eroded by one metre, in a moderate climate and assuming a rate of 1 [[Bubnoff unit]] (1 mm in 1,000 years, or ≈1 inch in 25,000 years).<ref>{{cite book|last=Lyle|first=Paul|title=Between Rocks And Hard Places: Discovering Ireland's Northern Landscapes|date=2010|publisher=Geological Survey of Northern Ireland|isbn=978-0337095870}}</ref> |
|||
==Calendric predictions== |
|||
{| class="wikitable" style="width: 100%; margin-right: 0;" |
|||
Without maintenance, the [[Great Pyramid of Giza]] will have eroded to the point where it is unrecognizable.<ref>{{cite book |last=Weisman |first=Alan |author-link=Alan Weisman |title=The World Without Us |url=https://archive.org/details/worldwithoutus00weis |url-access=limited |pages= [https://archive.org/details/worldwithoutus00weis/page/171 171]–172 |date=10 July 2007 |publisher=Thomas Dunne Books/St. Martin's Press |location=New York |isbn=978-0-312-34729-1 |oclc=122261590}}</ref> |
|||
On the [[Moon]], [[Neil Armstrong]]'s "one small step" [[footprint]] at [[Tranquility Base]] will erode by this time, along with those left by all [[List of Apollo astronauts#Apollo astronauts who walked on the Moon|twelve Apollo moonwalkers]], due to the accumulated effects of [[space weathering]].<ref name="meadows 2007"/><ref>{{cite web|title=Apollo 11 – First Footprint on the Moon|url=http://www.nasa.gov/audience/forstudents/k-4/home/F_Apollo_11.html|website=Student Features|publisher=NASA|access-date=26 May 2014|archive-date=3 April 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210403084654/https://www.nasa.gov/audience/forstudents/k-4/home/F_Apollo_11.html|url-status=live}}</ref> (Normal erosion processes active on Earth are not present on the Moon because of its [[Atmosphere of the Moon|almost complete lack of atmosphere]].) |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
|||
! scope="col" | [[File:Key.svg|12px]] |
|||
| 1.2 million |
|||
! scope="col" | Years from now |
|||
| ''[[Pioneer 11]]'' comes within three light-years of [[Delta Scuti]].<ref name="lavender"/> |
|||
! scope="col" colspan=2| Event |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
||
| 2 million |
|||
| 10,000 |
|||
| ''[[Pioneer 10]]'' passes near the bright star [[Aldebaran]].<ref name="Pioneer Ames"/> |
|||
| <center>—</center> |
|||
| The [[Gregorian calendar]] will be roughly 10 days out of sync with the seasons.<ref name="greg" /> |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: |
| style="background: #CEFF00;" | [[File:Butterfly icon (Noun Project).svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Biology|Biology]] |
||
| 2 million |
|||
| {{age in years and days|{{CURRENTYEAR}}|{{CURRENTMONTH}}|{{CURRENTDAY}}|12892|6|10}} |
|||
| Vertebrate species separated for this long will generally undergo [[allopatric speciation]].<ref>{{cite journal|last=Avise |first=John |author-link=John Avise |author2=D. Walker |author3=G. C. Johns |title=Speciation durations and Pleistocene effects on vertebrate phylogeography|journal=Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B|date=22 September 1998|volume=265|issue=1407|pages=1707–1712|doi=10.1098/rspb.1998.0492 |pmid=9787467 |pmc=1689361}}</ref> Evolutionary biologist [[James W. Valentine]] predicted that if humanity has been dispersed among genetically isolated [[Space colonization|space colonies]] over this time, the galaxy will host an [[evolutionary radiation]] of multiple human species with a "diversity of form and adaptation that would astound us".<ref>{{cite book|last=Valentine|first=James W.|author-link=James W. Valentine|editor1-last=Finney|editor1-first=Ben R.|editor1-link=Ben Finney|editor2-last=Jones|editor2-first=Eric M.|title=Interstellar Migration and the Human Experience|date=1985|publisher=University of California Press|chapter=The Origins of Evolutionary Novelty And Galactic Colonization|page=274|isbn=978-0520058781}}</ref> This would be a natural process of isolated populations, unrelated to potential deliberate [[Gene therapy|genetic enhancement]] technologies. |
|||
| 10 June, AD 12,892 |
|||
| In the [[Hebrew calendar]], due to a gradual drift with regard to the solar year, [[Passover]] will fall on the [[June solstice|northern summer solstice]] (it is meant to fall around the spring equinox).<ref>{{cite web|last=Bromberg|first=Irv|title=The Rectified Hebrew Calendar|url=http://individual.utoronto.ca/kalendis/hebrew/rect.htm#over}}</ref> |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
||
| 4 million |
|||
| {{age in years and days|{{CURRENTYEAR}}|{{CURRENTMONTH}}|{{CURRENTDAY}}|20874|1|1}} |
|||
| ''[[Pioneer 11]]'' passes near one of the stars in the constellation [[Aquila (constellation)|Aquila]].<ref name="Pioneer Ames"/> |
|||
| AD 20,874 |
|||
| The [[lunar calendar|lunar]] [[Islamic calendar]] and the [[solar calendar|solar]] [[Gregorian calendar]] will share the same year number. After this, the shorter Islamic calendar will slowly overtake the Gregorian.<ref name="islam" /> |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: |
| style="background: #CEFF00;" | [[File:Butterfly icon (Noun Project).svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt= Biology|Biology]] |
||
| 5 million |
|||
| 25,000 |
|||
|Due to gradual degeneration, the [[Y chromosome]] will have disappeared.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Wilson |first1=Jason |last2=Staley |first2=Joshua M. |last3=Wyckoff |first3=Gerald J. |title=Extinction of chromosomes due to specialization is a universal occurrence |journal=Scientific Reports |date=7 February 2020 |volume=10 |issue=1 |pages=2170 |doi=10.1038/s41598-020-58997-2 |url=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-58997-2 |access-date=9 December 2024 |language=en |issn=2045-2322|pmc=7005762 }}</ref> |
|||
| <center>—</center> |
|||
| The [[Tabular Islamic calendar]] will be roughly 10 days out of sync with the Moon's phase.<ref>{{cite book|last=Richards|first=Edward Graham|title=Mapping time: the calendar and its history|date=1998|publisher=Oxford University Press|page=93}}</ref> |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: |
| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
||
| 7.2 million |
|||
| {{age in years and days|{{CURRENTYEAR}}|{{CURRENTMONTH}}|{{CURRENTDAY}}|48901|3|1}} |
|||
|Without maintenance, [[Mount Rushmore]] will have eroded to the point where it is unrecognizable.<ref>{{cite book |last=Weisman |first=Alan |author-link=Alan Weisman |title=The World Without Us |url=https://archive.org/details/worldwithoutus00weis |url-access=limited |page= [https://archive.org/details/worldwithoutus00weis/page/182 182] |date=10 July 2007 |publisher=Thomas Dunne Books/St. Martin's Press |location=New York |isbn=978-0-312-34729-1 |oclc=122261590}}</ref> |
|||
| 1 March, AD 48,901{{efn|name=Greg 2 note}} |
|||
| The [[Julian calendar]] (365.25 days) and [[Gregorian calendar]] (365.2425 days) will be one year apart.<ref name="greg2" /> |
|||
|} |
|||
==Nuclear power== |
|||
{| class="wikitable" style="width: 100%; margin-right: 0;" |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: #e0ffff;" | [[File:Greek lc pi icon.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Mathematics|Mathematics]] |
|||
! scope="col" | [[File:Key.svg|12px]] |
|||
| 7.8 million |
|||
! scope="col" | Years from now |
|||
|Humanity has a 95% probability of extinction by this date, according to [[J. Richard Gott]]'s formulation of the controversial [[Doomsday argument]].<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Gott |first=J. Richard |date=May 1993 |title=Implications of the Copernican principle for our future prospects |journal=Nature |language=en |volume=363 |issue=6427 |pages=315–319 |bibcode=1993Natur.363..315G |doi=10.1038/363315a0 |issn=0028-0836 |s2cid=4252750}}</ref> |
|||
! scope="col" | Event |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
||
| 8 million |
|||
| 10,000 |
|||
| Most probable lifespan of the [[Pioneer plaque|Pioneer 10 plaques]] before the etching is destroyed by poorly understood interstellar erosion processes.<ref>{{cite web|last=Lasher |first=Lawrence |title=Pioneer Mission Status |url=http://spaceprojects.arc.nasa.gov/Space_Projects/pioneer/PNStat.html |publisher=NASA|url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20000408152959/http://spaceprojects.arc.nasa.gov/Space_Projects/pioneer/PNStat.html |archive-date=8 April 2000 |quote=[Pioneer's speed is] about 12 km/s... [the plate etching] should survive recognizable at least to a distance ≈10 parsecs, and most probably to 100 parsecs.}}</ref> |
|||
|The [[Waste Isolation Pilot Plant]], for nuclear weapons waste, is planned to be protected until this time, with a "Permanent Marker" system designed to warn off visitors through both multiple languages (the [[Official languages of the United Nations|six UN languages]] and [[Navajo language|Navajo]]) and through [[pictogram]]s.<ref>[http://www.wipp.energy.gov/picsprog/test1/Permanent_Markers_Implementation_Plan_rev1.pdf WIPP Permanent Markers Implementation Plan, rev1 (2004)]</ref> (The [[Human Interference Task Force]] has provided the theoretical basis for United States plans for future nuclear semiotics.) |
|||
The ''[[LAGEOS]]'' satellites' orbits will decay, and they will re-enter Earth's atmosphere, carrying with them a message to any far future descendants of humanity and a map of the continents as they are expected to appear then.<ref name="lageos"/> |
|||
The [[Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository]] is required by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to maintain an annual dose limit of 15 [[millirem]] until this time.<ref name= "Yucca">{{cite web|url=http://www.epa.gov/radiation/yucca/about.html|title=About Yucca Mountain Standards|publisher=[[Environmental Protection Agency]]|date=2012|accessdate=2014-05-13}}</ref> |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
| [[File:Simpleicons Interface user-male-black-silhouette.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=technology and culture|Technology and culture]] |
|||
| style="background: #FFE4E1;" | [[File:Psi2.svg|16px|alt=Particle physics|Particle physics]] |
|||
| 100 million |
|||
| 20,000 |
|||
| Maximal estimated lifespan of technological civilization, according to [[Frank Drake]]'s original formulation of the [[Drake equation]].<ref>{{cite book|last1=Bignami|first1=Giovanni F.|last2=Sommariva|first2=Andrea|title=A Scenario for Interstellar Exploration and Its Financing|url=https://archive.org/details/scenarioforinter00bign|url-access=limited|date=2013|publisher=Springer|page=[https://archive.org/details/scenarioforinter00bign/page/n29 23]|bibcode=2013sief.book.....B|isbn=9788847053373}}</ref> |
|||
|The [[Chernobyl Exclusion Zone]], the {{convert|2600|km2|abbr=on}} area of [[Ukraine]] and [[Belarus]] left deserted by the 1986 [[Chernobyl disaster]], becomes safe for human life.<ref name=TimeDisaster>{{cite book|title=Time: Disasters that Shook the World|publisher=Time Home Entertainment|location=New York City|year=2012|isbn=1-60320-247-1}}</ref> |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|alt=Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
||
| 100 million |
|||
| 30,000 |
|||
| Future archaeologists should be able to identify an "Urban [[Stratum]]" of fossilized [[Port|great coastal cities]], mostly through the remains of underground infrastructure such as [[Foundation (engineering)|building foundations]] and [[utility tunnel]]s.<ref>{{cite book |last=Zalasiewicz |first=Jan |title=The Earth After Us: What legacy will humans leave in the rocks? |date=25 September 2008 |publisher=Oxford University Press}}, [https://web.archive.org/web/20140513011343/http://www.stanford.edu/dept/archaeology/cgi-bin/archaeolog/?p=239 Review in Stanford Archaeology]</ref> |
|||
| Estimated supply lifespan of fission-based [[breeder reactor]] reserves, using [[List of countries by uranium reserves|known sources]], assuming current [[world energy consumption]].<ref name="Fetter">{{cite news|last=Fetter|first=Steve|title=How long will the world's uranium supplies last?|url=http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-long-will-global-uranium-deposits-last/|date=March 2006}}</ref> |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
| [[File:Simpleicons Interface user-male-black-silhouette.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=technology and culture|Technology and culture]] |
|||
| 1 billion |
|||
| 60,000 |
|||
| Estimated lifespan of "[[Molecular shuttle|Nanoshuttle]] memory device" using an [[iron nanoparticle]] moved as a [[molecular switch]] through a [[carbon nanotube]], a technology developed at the [[University of California at Berkeley]].<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Begtrup |first1=G. E. |last2=Gannett |first2=W. |last3=Yuzvinsky |first3=T. D. |last4=Crespi |first4=V. H. |last5=Zettl |first5=A. |title=Nanoscale Reversible Mass Transport for Archival Memory |journal=Nano Letters |date=13 May 2009 |volume=9 |issue=5 |pages=1835–1838 |doi=10.1021/nl803800c |url=http://www.physics.berkeley.edu/research/zettl/pdf/363.NanoLet.9-Begtrup.pdf |bibcode=2009NanoL...9.1835B |pmid=19400579 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100622232231/http://www.physics.berkeley.edu/research/zettl/pdf/363.NanoLet.9-Begtrup.pdf |archive-date=22 June 2010 |citeseerx=10.1.1.534.8855 }}</ref> |
|||
| Estimated supply lifespan of fission-based [[light water reactor]] reserves if it is possible to extract all the [[uranium]] from seawater, assuming current [[world energy consumption]].<ref name="Fetter"/> |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
||
| 1 billion |
|||
| 211,000 |
|||
| Estimated lifespan of the two [[Voyager Golden Record]]s before the information stored on them is rendered unrecoverable.<ref>{{cite AV media |author1-link=Jad Abumrad |author2-link=Robert Krulwich |first=Jad |last=Abumrad |first2=Robert |last2=Krulwich |date=12 February 2010 |title= Carl Sagan And Ann Druyan's Ultimate Mix Tape |url=https://www.npr.org/2010/02/12/123534818/carl-sagan-and-ann-druyans-ultimate-mix-tape |medium=Radio |work=Radiolab |publisher=NPR }}</ref> |
|||
| [[Half-life]] of [[technetium-99]], the most important [[long-lived fission product]] in uranium-derived nuclear waste. |
|||
Estimated time for an [[astroengineering]] project to alter the [[Earth's orbit]], compensating for the Sun's increasing brightness and outward migration of the [[Circumstellar habitable zone|habitable zone]], accomplished by repeated asteroid [[gravity assist]]s.<ref>{{cite journal | first=D. G. | last=Korycansky |author2=Laughlin, Gregory|author3= Adams, Fred C. |year=2001 |
|||
|title=Astronomical engineering: a strategy for modifying planetary orbits | doi=10.1023/A:1002790227314 | journal=Astrophysics and Space Science | id=Astrophys.Space Sci.275:349-366, 2001 | volume=275 | issue=4 | pages=349–366 | hdl=2027.42/41972 | bibcode=2001Ap&SS.275..349K | arxiv=astro-ph/0102126 | s2cid=5550304 }}</ref><ref>{{cite journal|last=Korycansky|first=D. G.|title=Astroengineering, or how to save the Earth in only one billion years|journal=Revista Mexicana de Astronomía y Astrofísica|year=2004|volume=22|pages=117–120|url=http://www.astroscu.unam.mx/rmaa/RMxAC..22/PDF/RMxAC..22_korycansky.pdf|bibcode=2004RMxAC..22..117K|access-date=7 September 2014|archive-date=23 September 2015|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150923175649/http://www.astroscu.unam.mx/rmaa/RMxAC..22/PDF/RMxAC..22_korycansky.pdf|url-status=live}}</ref> |
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|- |
|- |
||
| [[File:Simpleicons Interface user-male-black-silhouette.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=technology and culture|technology and culture]] |
|||
| style="background: #FFE4E1;" | [[File:Psi2.svg|16px|alt=Particle physics|Particle physics]] |
|||
| 292277026596 CE (292 billion) |
|||
| 1 million |
|||
| Numeric overflow in system time for 64-bit [[Unix]] systems.<ref>{{cite web |title=Date/Time Conversion Contract Language |url=https://its.ny.gov/sites/default/files/documents/nys-p98-003_date_time_conversion_contract_language_1.pdf |publisher=Office of Information Technology Services |location=[[New York (state)|New York]] |access-date=16 October 2020 |date=19 May 2019 |archive-date=30 April 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210430113627/https://its.ny.gov/sites/default/files/documents/nys-p98-003_date_time_conversion_contract_language_1.pdf |url-status=live }}</ref> |
|||
| The [[Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository]] is required by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to maintain an annual dose limit of 100 [[millirem]] until this time.<ref name = "Yucca" /> |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
| style="background: |
| style="background: lavender;" | [[File:Five Pointed Star Solid.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=Astronomy and astrophysics|Astronomy and astrophysics]] |
||
| 10<sup>20</sup> (100 quintillion) |
|||
| 15.7 million |
|||
| Estimated timescale for the Pioneer and Voyager spacecraft to collide with a star (or stellar remnant).<ref name="lavender"/> |
|||
| [[Half-life]] of [[iodine-129]], the most durable [[long-lived fission product]] in uranium-derived [[Radioactive waste|nuclear waste]]. |
|||
|- |
|||
| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|alt=Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
|||
| 60 million |
|||
| Estimated supply lifespan of [[fusion power]] reserves if it is possible to extract all the [[lithium]] from seawater, assuming 1995 [[world energy consumption]].<ref name="Ongena 3–14">{{cite journal|last=Ongena|first=J|author2=G. Van Oost |title=Energy for future centuries - Will fusion be an inexhaustible, safe and clean energy source?|journal=Fusion Science and Technology|volume=45|series=2004|issue=2T|pages=3–14|url=http://www.agci.org/dB/PDFs/03S2_MMauel_SafeFusion%3F.pdf}}</ref> |
|||
|- |
|||
| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|alt=Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
|||
| 5 billion |
|||
| Estimated supply lifespan of fission-based [[breeder reactor]] reserves if it is possible to extract all the [[uranium]] from seawater, assuming 1983 [[world energy consumption]].<ref name="Cohen"/> |
|||
|- |
|||
| style="background: #f0dc82;" | [[File:Noun project 528.svg|16px|alt=Geology and planetary science|Geology and planetary science]] |
|||
| 150 billion |
|||
| Estimated supply lifespan of [[fusion power]] reserves if it is possible to extract all the [[deuterium]] from seawater, assuming 1995 [[world energy consumption]].<ref name="Ongena 3–14"/> |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
| [[File:Simpleicons Interface user-male-black-silhouette.svg|16px|link=#Keys|alt=technology and culture|technology and culture]] |
|||
| {{val|3e19}} – {{val|3e21}}<br/>(30 quintillion to 3 sextillion) |
|||
| Estimated lifespan of "[[5D optical data storage|Superman memory crystal]]" data storage using [[femtosecond laser]]-etched [[nanostructure]]s in glass, a technology developed at the [[University of Southampton]], at an ambient temperature of {{cvt|30|C|F K}}.<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Zhang|first1=J.|last2=Gecevičius|first2=M.|last3=Beresna|first3=M.|last4=Kazansky|first4=P. G.|title=Seemingly unlimited lifetime data storage in nanostructured glass|url=https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260004721|journal=Phys. Rev. Lett.|volume=112|issue=3|page=033901|doi=10.1103/PhysRevLett.112.033901|pmid=24484138|year=2014|bibcode=2014PhRvL.112c3901Z|s2cid=27040597 |access-date=6 September 2018|archive-date=2 August 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210802032743/https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260004721_Seemingly_Unlimited_Lifetime_Data_Storage_in_Nanostructured_Glass|url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal|last1=Zhang|first1=J.|last2=Gecevičius|first2=M.|last3=Beresna|first3=M.|last4=Kazansky|first4=P. G.|title=5D Data Storage by Ultrafast Laser Nanostructuring in Glass|journal=CLEO: Science and Innovations|date=June 2013|pages=CTh5D–9|url=http://www.orc.soton.ac.uk/fileadmin/downloads/5D_Data_Storage_by_Ultrafast_Laser_Nanostructuring_in_Glass.pdf|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140906152109/http://www.orc.soton.ac.uk/fileadmin/downloads/5D_Data_Storage_by_Ultrafast_Laser_Nanostructuring_in_Glass.pdf|archive-date=6 September 2014}}</ref> |
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|} |
|} |
||
==Graphical timelines== |
==Graphical timelines== |
||
For graphical, logarithmic |
For graphical timelines, [[logarithmic timeline]]s of these events, see: |
||
* [[Graphical timeline of the universe]] (to 8 billion years from now) |
* [[Graphical timeline of the universe]] (to 8 billion years from now) |
||
* [[Graphical timeline of the Stelliferous Era]] (to 10<sup>20</sup> years from now) |
* [[Graphical timeline of the Stelliferous Era]] (to 10<sup>20</sup> years from now) |
||
Line 764: | Line 760: | ||
==See also== |
==See also== |
||
{{portal|border=no|Astronomy|Stars|Outer space|World}} |
|||
* [[Far future in science fiction and popular culture]] |
|||
{{cols|colwidth=26em}} |
|||
* [[Far future in religion]] |
|||
* [[Future of the Earth]] |
|||
* [[Timeline of the formation of the Universe]] |
|||
* [[Chronology of the universe]] |
* [[Chronology of the universe]] |
||
* [[Detailed logarithmic timeline]] |
* [[Detailed logarithmic timeline]] |
||
* [[ |
* [[Far future in fiction]] |
||
* [[Far future in religion]] |
|||
* [[List of radioactive nuclides by half-life]] |
|||
* [[Location of Earth]] |
|||
* [[Orders of magnitude (time)]] |
|||
* [[Space and survival]] |
* [[Space and survival]] |
||
* [[Terasecond and longer]] |
|||
* [[Timeline of natural history]] |
* [[Timeline of natural history]] |
||
* [[Timeline of the |
* [[Timeline of the early universe]] |
||
* [[Ultimate fate of the universe]] |
|||
* [[10th millennium]] |
|||
{{colend}} |
|||
==Notes== |
==Notes== |
||
{{reflist|30em|group=note}} |
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{{notes |
|||
| notes = |
|||
<!-- nb: [[WP:REFNEST]]; nesting fails after first one; better to use harv referencing. meh; so using refs alongside efns inline --> |
|||
{{efn |
|||
| name= time |
|||
|The precise cutoff point is 0:00 on 1 January AD 10,001 |
|||
}} |
|||
{{efn |
|||
| name = prob |
|||
| This represents the time by which the event will most probably have happened. It may occur randomly at any time from the present. |
|||
}} |
|||
{{efn |
|||
| name = ejection/capture |
|||
| There is a roughly 1 in 100,000 chance that the Earth might be ejected into interstellar space by a stellar encounter before this point, and a 1 in 3 million chance that it will then be captured by another star. Were this to happen, life, assuming it survived the interstellar journey, could potentially continue for far longer. |
|||
}} |
|||
{{efn |
|||
| name = earthredgiantsun |
|||
| This has been a tricky question for quite a while; see the 2001 paper by Rybicki, K. R. and Denis, C. However, according to the latest calculations, this happens with a very high degree of certainty. |
|||
}} |
|||
{{efn |
|||
| name = Greg 2 note |
|||
| Manually calculated from the fact that the calendars were 10 days apart in 1582 and grew further apart by 3 days every 400 years. 1 March AD 48900 (Julian) and 1 March AD 48901 (Gregorian) are both Tuesday. The Julian day number (a measure used by astronomers) at Greenwich mean midnight (start of day) is 19 581 842.5 for both dates. |
|||
}} |
|||
{{efn |
|||
| name = shortscale |
|||
| Units are [[short scale]] |
|||
}} |
|||
{{efn |
|||
| name = half-life |
|||
| Around 264 half-lives. Tyson et al. employ the computation with a different value for half-life. |
|||
}} |
|||
{{efn |
|||
| name = big number |
|||
| <math>10^{10^{26}}</math> is 1 followed by 10<sup>26</sup> (100 septillion) zeroes. |
|||
}} |
|||
{{efn |
|||
| name = big number2 |
|||
|Although listed in years for convenience, the numbers beyond this point are so vast that their digits would remain unchanged regardless of which conventional units they were listed in, be they [[nanosecond]]s or [[stellar evolution|star lifespans]]. |
|||
}} |
|||
{{efn |
|||
| name = "dwarf" |
|||
|Based upon the weighted least-squares best fit on p. 16 of Kalirai et al. with the initial mass equal to a [[solar mass]]. |
|||
}} |
|||
{{efn |
|||
| name= big number3 |
|||
|The total number of possible configurations of subatomic particles in the observable Universe is <math>10^{10^{115}}</math>, a number that, when multiplied by <math>10^{10^{10^{56}}}</math>, disappears into the rounding error. Therefore <math>10^{10^{10^{56}}}</math> also represents the amount of time required for a repeated series of randomly generated Big Bangs to recreate an observable Universe identical to our own, assuming each new Universe obeyed the same laws of physics and comprised at least the same number of subatomic particles.}} |
|||
}} |
|||
==References== |
==References== |
||
{{cols|colwidth=26em}} |
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{{reflist|25em| refs = |
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{{reflist| refs = |
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<ref name="Nave">{{cite web | title = Second Law of Thermodynamics | last = Nave | first = C.R. | url = http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/thermo/seclaw.html | publisher = [[Georgia State University]] | access-date = 3 December 2011 | archive-date = 13 May 2012 | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20120513064248/http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/thermo/seclaw.html | url-status = live }}</ref> |
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<ref name="Nave"> |
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{{cite web | title = Second Law of Thermodynamics | last = Nave | first = C.R. | url = http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/thermo/seclaw.html | publisher = [[Georgia State University]] | accessdate =3 December 2011 |
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}} |
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</ref> |
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<ref name="five ages"> |
<ref name="five ages"> |
||
{{cite book | last1 = Adams | first1 = Fred | last2 = Laughlin | first2 = Greg | date = 1999 | title = The Five Ages of the Universe | publisher = The Free Press | location = New York | isbn = 978- |
{{cite book | last1 = Adams | first1 = Fred | last2 = Laughlin | first2 = Greg | date = 1999 | title = The Five Ages of the Universe | publisher = The Free Press | location = New York | isbn = 978-0684854229 |
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}} |
}} |
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</ref> |
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<ref name="carroll and chen"> |
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</ref> |
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<ref name="dying"> |
<ref name="dying"> |
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{{cite journal | title = A dying universe: the long-term fate and evolution of astrophysical objects | last = Adams | first = Fred C.|author2=Laughlin, Gregory |
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<ref name="Komatsu"> |
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<ref name="linde"> |
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{{cite journal | title = Sinks in the Landscape, Boltzmann Brains and the Cosmological Constant Problem | author = Linde, Andrei. | journal = Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics (subscription required)| date = 2007 | url = http://www.iop.org/EJ/abstract/1475-7516/2007/01/022 | accessdate =26 June 2009 | doi = 10.1088/1475-7516/2007/01/022 | volume = 2007 | issue = 1 | page = 022 | arxiv = hep-th/0611043 | bibcode = 2007JCAP...01..022L |
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}} |
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</ref> |
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<ref name="Matthews1993"> |
<ref name="Matthews1993"> |
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Line 872: | Line 811: | ||
</ref> |
</ref> |
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<ref name="Berger2002">{{Cite journal |last1=Berger |first1=A. |last2=Loutre |first2=M. F. |date=2002-08-23 |title=An Exceptionally Long Interglacial Ahead? |journal=Science |language=en |volume=297 |issue=5585 |pages=1287–1288 |doi=10.1126/science.1076120 |issn=0036-8075 |pmid=12193773 |s2cid=128923481}}</ref> |
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<ref name="Berger2002"> |
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{{cite journal | author = Berger, A | author2 = Loutre, MF | last-author-amp = yes | title = Climate: an exceptionally long interglacial ahead? | journal = Science | volume = 297 | issue = 5585 | date = 2002 | pages = 1287–8 | doi = 10.1126/science.1076120|pmid=12193773 |
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}} |
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</ref> |
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<ref name="Niagara Parks"> |
<ref name="Niagara Parks"> |
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{{cite web |
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|title=Niagara Falls Geology Facts & Figures |
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<ref name="arxiv1106_3141"> |
<ref name="arxiv1106_3141"> |
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{{cite journal | last1 = Adams | first1 = F. C. | last2 = Graves | first2 = G. J. M. | last3 = Laughlin | first3 = G. | title = Gravitational Collapse: From Massive Stars to Planets. / First Astrophysics meeting of the Observatorio Astronomico Nacional. / A meeting to celebrate Peter Bodenheimer for his outstanding contributions to Astrophysics: Red Dwarfs and the End of the Main Sequence | editor1-first = G. | editor1-last = García-Segura | editor2-first = G. | editor2-last = Tenorio-Tagle | editor3-first = J. | editor3-last = Franco | editor4-first = H. W. | editor4-last = Yorke | journal = Revista Mexicana de Astronomía y Astrofísica, Serie de Conferencias | volume = 22 | pages = 46–49 | date= December 2004 | bibcode = 2004RMxAC..22...46A |
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}} See Fig. 3. |
}} See Fig. 3. |
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</ref> |
</ref> |
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<ref name="strip"> |
<ref name="strip"> |
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{{cite book | |
{{cite book | last= Tayler |first=Roger John | date = 1993 | title = Galaxies, Structure and Evolution |edition=2nd | publisher = Cambridge University Press | page = 92 | isbn = 978-0521367103 |
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}} |
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<ref name="five degs">{{cite book | title = The Anthropic Cosmological Principle | last1 = Barrow | first1 = John D. | author1-link = John D. Barrow | last2 = Tipler | first2 = Frank J. | author2-link = Frank J. Tipler | others = foreword by [[John A. Wheeler]] | isbn = 978-0192821478 | id = [http://lccn.loc.gov/87028148 LC 87-28148] | url = https://books.google.com/books?id=uSykSbXklWEC | date = 19 May 1988 | publisher = Oxford University Press | location = Oxford | access-date = 27 March 2016 | archive-date = 1 August 2020 | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20200801124357/https://books.google.com/books?id=uSykSbXklWEC | url-status = live }}</ref> |
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<ref name="five degs"> |
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{{cite book | title = The Anthropic Cosmological Principle | last1 = Barrow | first1 = John D. | author1-link = John D. Barrow | last2 = Tipler | first2 = Frank J.| author2-link = Frank J. Tipler | others= foreword by [[John Archibald Wheeler|John A. Wheeler]] | isbn = 978-0-19-282147-8 | id = [http://lccn.loc.gov/87028148 LC 87-28148] | url = http://books.google.com/books?id=uSykSbXklWEC&printsec=frontcover | accessdate =31 December 2009 | date = 19 May 1988 | publisher = Oxford University Press | location = Oxford |
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}} |
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</ref> |
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<ref name="five ages pp85–87"> |
<ref name="five ages pp85–87"> |
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{{cite book | last1 = Adams | first1 = Fred | last2 = Laughlin | first2 = Greg | date = 1999 | title = The Five Ages of the Universe | publisher = The Free Press | location = New York | pages = 85–87 | isbn = 978- |
{{cite book | last1 = Adams | first1 = Fred | last2 = Laughlin | first2 = Greg | date = 1999 | title = The Five Ages of the Universe | publisher = The Free Press | location = New York | pages = 85–87 | isbn = 978-0684854229 |
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}} |
}} |
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</ref> |
</ref> |
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<ref name="dyson">{{cite journal | title = Time Without End: Physics and Biology in an Open Universe | last= Dyson |first=Freeman | author-link=Freeman Dyson | journal = Reviews of Modern Physics | volume = 51 | issue = 3 | pages = 447–460 | year = 1979 | url = http://www.aleph.se/Trans/Global/Omega/dyson.txt | access-date = 5 July 2008 | doi = 10.1103/RevModPhys.51.447 | bibcode = 1979RvMP...51..447D | archive-date = 5 July 2008 | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20080705100233/http://www.aleph.se/Trans/Global/Omega/dyson.txt | url-status = live }}</ref> |
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<ref name="dyson"> |
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{{cite journal | title = Time Without End: Physics and Biology in an Open Universe | author = Dyson, Freeman J. | journal = Reviews of Modern Physics (subscription required) | volume = 51 | issue = 3 | page = 447 | date = 1979 | url = http://scilib.narod.ru/Physics/Dyson/dyson.pdf | accessdate =5 July 2008 | doi = 10.1103/RevModPhys.51.447 | bibcode = 1979RvMP...51..447D |
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}} |
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</ref> |
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<!--ref name="sun_future_schroder"> |
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{{cite journal | |
{{cite journal | last1 = Schröder | first1 = K.-P. | last2 = Smith | first2 = Robert Connon |year = 2008 | title = Distant Future of the Sun and Earth Revisited | doi = 10.1111/j.1365-2966.2008.13022.x | journal = Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society | volume = 386 | issue = 1 | pages = 155–163 | bibcode = 2008MNRAS.386..155S | arxiv = 0801.4031 |
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}} |
}} |
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</ref--> |
</ref--> |
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<!--ref name="sun future"> |
<!--ref name="sun future"> |
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{{cite journal | |
{{cite journal | last1= Sackmann |first1=I. J. | last2= Boothroyd |first2=A. J. | last3= Kraemer |first3=K. E. | title = Our Sun. III. Present and Future | page = 457 | journal = Astrophysical Journal |year = 1993 | volume = 418 | bibcode = 1993ApJ...418..457S | doi = 10.1086/173407 |
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}} |
}} |
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</ref--> |
</ref--> |
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<ref name="proton"> |
<ref name="proton"> |
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{{cite journal | |
{{cite journal | year = 2009 | title = Search for Proton Decay via {{Subatomic particle|Proton+}} → {{Subatomic particle|Positron}}{{Subatomic particle|pion0}} and {{Subatomic particle|Proton+}} → {{Subatomic particle|Muon+}}{{Subatomic particle|pion0}} in a Large Water Cherenkov Detector | journal = [[Physical Review Letters]] |volume=102 |issue=14 |page=141801 |doi=10.1103/PhysRevLett.102.141801 |bibcode=2009PhRvL.102n1801N | name-list-style = vanc | collaboration= [[Super-Kamiokande|Super-K Collaboration]] | last1=Nishino |first1=H. |last2=Clark |first2=S. | last3 = Abe | first3 = K. | last4 = Hayato | first4 = Y. | last5 = Iida | first5 = T. | last6 = Ikeda | first6 = M. | last7 = Kameda | first7 = J. | last8 = Kobayashi | first8 = K. | last9 = Koshio | first9 = Y. | last10 = Miura | first10 = M. | last11 = Moriyama | first11 = S. | last12 = Nakahata | first12 = M. | last13 = Nakayama | first13 = S. | last14 = Obayashi | first14 = Y. | last15 = Ogawa | first15 = H. | last16 = Sekiya | first16 = H. | last17 = Shiozawa | first17 = M. | last18 = Suzuki | first18 = Y. | last19 = Takeda | first19 = A. | last20 = Takenaga | first20 = Y. | last21 = Takeuchi | first21 = Y. | last22 = Ueno | first22 = K. | last23 = Ueshima | first23 = K. | last24 = Watanabe | first24 = H. | last25 = Yamada | first25 = S. | last26 = Hazama | first26 = S. | last27 = Higuchi | first27 = I. | last28 = Ishihara | first28 = C. | last29 = Kajita | first29 = T. | last30 = Kaneyuki | first30 = K. | pmid=19392425 |
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|arxiv = 0903.0676 | s2cid = 32385768 }} |
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}} |
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</ref> |
</ref> |
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<ref name="half-life"> |
<!-- <ref name="half-life"> |
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{{cite book | url = |
{{cite book | url = https://archive.org/details/oneuniverse00neil | title = One Universe: At Home in the Cosmos | first1 = Neil de Grasse | last1 = Tyson | last2 = Tsun-Chu Liu | first2 = Charles | last3 = Irion | first3 = Robert | publisher = Joseph Henry Press | date = 2000 | isbn = 978-0309064880 | url-access = registration }} |
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</ref> |
</ref> --> |
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<ref name="Page 1976"> |
<ref name="Page 1976"> |
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{{cite journal | title = Particle Emission Rates from a Black Hole: Massless Particles from an Uncharged, Nonrotating Hole | last = Page | first = Don N. | |
{{cite journal | title = Particle Emission Rates from a Black Hole: Massless Particles from an Uncharged, Nonrotating Hole | last = Page | first = Don N. |year = 1976 | journal = Physical Review D | volume = 13 | issue = 2 | pages = 198–206 | bibcode = 1976PhRvD..13..198P | doi = 10.1103/PhysRevD.13.198 |
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}} |
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}} See in particular equation (27). |
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</ref> |
</ref> |
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<!-- unused |
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<ref name="hayes07"> |
<ref name="hayes07"> |
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{{cite journal | |
{{cite journal | last= Hayes |first=Wayne B. | title = Is the Outer Solar System Chaotic? | journal = Nature Physics | arxiv = astro-ph/0702179 |year = 2007 | volume = 3 | issue = 10 | pages = 689–691 | doi = 10.1038/nphys728 | bibcode = 2007NatPh...3..689H |
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| citeseerx = 10.1.1.337.7948 | s2cid = 18705038 }} |
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}} |
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</ref> |
</ref> |
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--> |
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<ref name="time"> |
<ref name="time"> |
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{{cite |
{{cite magazine | title = Hurtling Through the Void | magazine = [[Time (magazine)|Time]] | url = http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,926062,00.html | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20081222014522/http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,926062,00.html | url-status = dead | archive-date = 22 December 2008 | access-date =5 September 2011 | date = 20 June 1983 |
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}} |
}} |
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</ref> |
</ref> |
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<ref name="glob"> |
<ref name="glob"> |
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{{cite web | url = http://www.news.cornell.edu/releases/Nov99/Arecibo.message.ws.html | title = Cornell News: "It's the 25th Anniversary of Earth's First (and only) Attempt to Phone E.T." |date= 12 November 1999 |publisher=Cornell University | |
{{cite web | url = http://www.news.cornell.edu/releases/Nov99/Arecibo.message.ws.html | title = Cornell News: "It's the 25th Anniversary of Earth's First (and only) Attempt to Phone E.T." |date= 12 November 1999 |publisher=Cornell University | access-date =29 March 2008 | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20080802005337/http://www.news.cornell.edu/releases/Nov99/Arecibo.message.ws.html | archive-date = 2 August 2008 |
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}} |
}} |
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</ref> |
</ref> |
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<ref name="voyager"> |
<!-- <ref name="voyager"> |
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{{cite web | title = Voyager: The Interstellar Mission | publisher = NASA | url = http://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/interstellar.html | |
{{cite web | title = Voyager: The Interstellar Mission | publisher = NASA | url = http://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/interstellar.html | access-date =5 September 2011 |
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}} |
}} |
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</ref> |
</ref>--> |
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<!-- <ref name="keo1">{{cite web | title = KEO FAQ | url = http://www.keo.org/uk/pages/faq.html#q1 | publisher = keo.org | access-date = 14 October 2011 | archive-date = 8 January 2021 | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20210108011828/http://www.keo.org/uk/pages/faq.html#q1 | url-status = live }}</ref> unused --> |
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<ref name="keo1"> |
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{{cite web | title = KEO FAQ | url = http://www.keo.org/uk/pages/faq.html#q1|publisher=keo.org| accessdate =14 October 2011 |
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}} |
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<!-- <ref name="Pioneer 1st 7 billion">{{cite web | title = Pioneer 10 Spacecraft Nears 25TH Anniversary, End of Mission | publisher = nasa.gov | url = http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/1997/97-031.txt | access-date =22 December 2013}}</ref> |
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</ref> |
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<ref name="Pioneer 1st 7 billion2">{{cite web | title = Space Flight 2003 – United States Space Activities | publisher = nasa.gov | url = http://www.nasa.gov/directorates/somd/reports/2003/us.html| access-date =22 December 2013}}</ref>--> |
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<ref name="Pioneer Ames">{{cite web | title = The Pioneer Missions | publisher = NASA | url = http://www.nasa.gov/centers/ames/missions/archive/pioneer.html | access-date = 5 September 2011 | archive-date = 29 June 2011 | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20110629033952/http://www.nasa.gov/centers/ames/missions/archive/pioneer.html | url-status = live }}</ref> |
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<ref name="Pioneer 1st 7 billion"> |
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{{cite web | title = Pioneer 10 Spacecraft Nears 25TH Anniversary, End of Mission | publisher = nasa.gov | url = http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/1997/97-031.txt | accessdate =2013-12-22 |
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}} |
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<ref name="longnow">{{cite web | title = The Long Now Foundation | publisher = The Long Now Foundation | url = http://longnow.org/about/ | year = 2011 | access-date = 21 September 2011 | archive-date = 16 June 2021 | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20210616195028/https://longnow.org/about/ | url-status = live }}</ref> |
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<ref name="Pioneer 1st 7 billion2"> |
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{{cite web | title = SPACE FLIGHT 2003 – United States Space Activities | publisher = nasa.gov | url = http://www.nasa.gov/directorates/somd/reports/2003/us.html| accessdate =2013-12-22 |
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}} |
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</ref> |
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<ref name="Pioneer Ames"> |
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{{cite web | title = The Pioneer Missions | publisher = NASA | url = http://www.nasa.gov/centers/ames/missions/archive/pioneer.html | accessdate =5 September 2011 |
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}} |
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<ref name="longnow"> |
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{{cite web | title = The Long Now Foundation | publisher = The Long Now Foundation | url = http://longnow.org/about/ | date = 2011 | accessdate =21 September 2011 |
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}} |
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</ref> |
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<ref name="greg2"> |
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{{cite web | url = http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/JulianDate.php/ | title= Julian Date Converter| publisher = US Naval Observatory | accessdate =20 July 2012 |
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}} |
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</ref> |
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<ref name="brandon"> |
<!-- <ref name="brandon"> |
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{{cite journal |
{{cite journal |
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| last1 = Carter |
| last1 = Carter |
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| first1 = Brandon |
| first1 = Brandon |
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| |
| author-link = Brandon Carter |
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| last2 = McCrea |
| last2 = McCrea |
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| first2 = W. H. |
| first2 = W. H. |
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| |
|year = 1983 |
||
| title = The anthropic principle and its implications for biological evolution |
| title = The anthropic principle and its implications for biological evolution |
||
| journal = [[ |
| journal = [[Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London]] |
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| volume = A310 |
| volume = A310 |
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| issue = 1512 |
| issue = 1512 |
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| pages = 347–363 |
| pages = 347–363 |
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| doi = 10.1098/rsta.1983.0096 |
| doi = 10.1098/rsta.1983.0096 |
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|bibcode = 1983RSPTA.310..347C }} |
|bibcode = 1983RSPTA.310..347C | s2cid = 92330878 |
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}} |
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</ref> |
</ref> --> |
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<ref name="typeiii"> |
<ref name="typeiii">{{cite web |
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| author-link = Michio Kaku |
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{{cite web |
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| authorlink = Michio Kaku |
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| last = Kaku |
| last = Kaku |
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| first = Michio |
| first = Michio |
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| |
| year = 2010 |
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| title = The Physics of Interstellar Travel: To one day, reach the stars |
| title = The Physics of Interstellar Travel: To one day, reach the stars |
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| url = http://mkaku.org/home/?page_id=250 |
| url = http://mkaku.org/home/?page_id=250 |
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| publisher=mkaku.org |
| publisher = mkaku.org |
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| |
| access-date = 29 August 2010 |
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| archive-date = 10 February 2014 |
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}} |
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| archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20140210085314/http://mkaku.org/home/?page_id=250 |
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</ref> |
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| url-status = live |
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}}</ref> |
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<ref name="sublight"> |
<ref name="sublight"> |
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{{cite web | first = I. A. | last = Crawford | |
{{cite web | first = I. A. | last = Crawford | work = Scientific American | url = http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=where-are-they | title = Where are They? Maybe we are alone in the galaxy after all | date = July 2000 | access-date =20 July 2012 }} |
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}} |
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</ref> |
</ref> |
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--> |
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<ref name="global1"> |
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{{cite book | title = Global Catastrophic Risks | editor1-last = Bostrom | editor1-first = Nick | editor2-last = Cirkovic | editor2-first = Milan M. | last = Adams | first = Fred C. | chapter= Long-term astrophysicial processes | pages = 33–47 | publisher = Oxford University Press | date = 2008 |
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}} |
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</ref> |
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<ref name="lageos"> |
<ref name="lageos"> |
||
{{cite web | title = LAGEOS 1, 2 | publisher = NASA | url = http://space.jpl.nasa.gov/msl/QuickLooks/lageosQL.html | |
{{cite web | title = LAGEOS 1, 2 | publisher = NASA | url = http://space.jpl.nasa.gov/msl/QuickLooks/lageosQL.html | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20110721062751/http://space.jpl.nasa.gov/msl/QuickLooks/lageosQL.html | url-status = dead | archive-date = 21 July 2011 | access-date =21 July 2012 |
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}} |
}} |
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<ref name="pressure"> |
<ref name="pressure"> |
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{{cite journal | |
{{cite journal | last1= Li |first1=King-Fai | last2 = Pahlevan |first2=Kaveh | last3= Kirschvink |first3=Joseph L. | last4 = Yung |first4=Luk L. |year = 2009 | title = Atmospheric pressure as a natural climate regulator for a terrestrial planet with a biosphere | journal = Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America | volume = 106 | issue = 24 | pages = 9576–9579 | doi = 10.1073/pnas.0809436106 |
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|bibcode = 2009PNAS..106.9576L | pmid=19487662 | pmc=2701016}} |
|bibcode = 2009PNAS..106.9576L | pmid=19487662 | pmc=2701016| doi-access = free }} |
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</ref> |
</ref> |
||
<ref name="natgeo">{{cite web|title=Gamma-Ray Burst Caused Mass Extinction?| |
<ref name="natgeo">{{cite web|title=Gamma-Ray Burst Caused Mass Extinction?|last=Minard |first=Anne|publisher=National Geographic News|year=2009|url=http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/04/090403-gamma-ray-extinction.html|access-date=27 August 2012|archive-date=5 July 2015|archive-url=https://archive.today/20150705101800/http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/04/090403-gamma-ray-extinction.html|url-status=dead}}</ref> |
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}}</ref> |
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<ref name=hess5_4_569>{{cite journal |last1=Bounama |first1=Christine |year=2001 |last2=Franck |first2=S. |last3=Von Bloh |first3=David |title=The fate of Earth's ocean |journal=Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |volume=5 |issue=4 |pages=569–575 |doi=10.5194/hess-5-569-2001 |bibcode=2001HESS....5..569B|doi-access=free }}</ref> |
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{{cite web | title = Astronomy Answers: Modern Calendars | author = Strous, Louis | publisher = [[University of Utrecht]] | date = 2010 | url = http://aa.quae.nl/en/antwoorden/moderne_kalenders.html | accessdate =14 September 2011 |
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<ref name=loeb_2016>{{cite journal |last1=Loeb |first1=Abraham |last2=Batista |first2=Rafael |last3=Sloan |first3=W. |title=Relative Likelihood for Life as a Function of Cosmic Time |journal=Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics |volume=2016 |year=2016 |issue=8 |pages=040 | arxiv = 1606.08448 |doi=10.1088/1475-7516/2016/08/040|bibcode=2016JCAP...08..040L |s2cid=118489638 }}</ref> |
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<ref name="greg"> |
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{{cite journal | last = Borkowski | first = K.M. | date = 1991 | title = The Tropical Calendar and Solar Year | journal = J. Royal Astronomical Soc. of Canada | volume = 85 | issue = 3| pages = 121–130 | bibcode = 1991JRASC..85..121B |
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}} |
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<ref name="Solar_eclipses_during_transits"> |
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{{cite journal | title = Simultaneous Transits | author = Meeus, J. | author2 = Vitagliano, A. | last-author-amp = yes | journal = Journal of the British Astronomical Association | url = http://chemistry.unina.it/~alvitagl/solex/Simtrans.pdf | date = 2004 | volume = 114 | issue = 3 | accessdate =7 September 2011 |
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}} |
}} |
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{{colend}} |
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</ref> |
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===Bibliography=== |
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{{cite web | title = Why is Polaris the North Star? | publisher = [[NASA]] | url = http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:http://starchild.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/StarChild/questions/question64.html | accessdate =10 April 2011 |
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{{Time topics}} |
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<ref name="Cohen"> |
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{{cite journal | last = Cohen | first = Bernard L. | title = Breeder Reactors: A Renewable Energy Source | journal = American Journal of Physics | volume = 51 | issue = 1 | page = 75 | date= January 1983 | bibcode = 2005BGD.....2.1665F | url = http://sustainablenuclear.org/PADs/pad11983cohen.pdf | doi = 10.1119/1.13440 |
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}} |
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</ref> |
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}} |
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{{Millennia}} |
{{Millennia}} |
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[[Category:Future timelines|*]] |
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{{featured list}} |
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{{Use dmy dates|date=August 2012}} |
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[[Category:Future timelines|Far futures]] |
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[[Category:Futurology]] |
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[[Category:Millennia in the future|011]] |
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[[Category:Centuries in the future|M91]] |
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[[Category:Years in the future|A1]] |
Latest revision as of 18:48, 5 January 2025
While the future cannot be predicted with certainty, present understanding in various scientific fields allows for the prediction of some far-future events, if only in the broadest outline.[1][2][3][4] These fields include astrophysics, which studies how planets and stars form, interact and die; particle physics, which has revealed how matter behaves at the smallest scales; evolutionary biology, which studies how life evolves over time; plate tectonics, which shows how continents shift over millennia; and sociology, which examines how human societies and cultures evolve.
These timelines begin at the start of the 4th millennium in 3001 CE, and continue until the furthest and most remote reaches of future time. They include alternative future events that address unresolved scientific questions, such as whether humans will become extinct, whether the Earth survives when the Sun expands to become a red giant and whether proton decay will be the eventual end of all matter in the universe.
Lists
[edit]Keys
Astronomy and astrophysics | |
Geology and planetary science | |
Biology | |
Particle physics | |
Mathematics | |
Technology and culture |
Earth, the Solar System and the universe
[edit]All projections of the future of Earth, the Solar System and the universe must account for the second law of thermodynamics, which states that entropy, or a loss of the energy available to do work, must rise over time.[5] Stars will eventually exhaust their supply of hydrogen fuel via fusion and burn out. The Sun will likely expand sufficiently to overwhelm most of the inner planets (Mercury, Venus, and possibly Earth) but not the giant planets, including Jupiter and Saturn. Afterwards, the Sun will be reduced to the size of a white dwarf, and the outer planets and their moons will continue to orbit this diminutive solar remnant. This future situation may be similar to the white dwarf star MOA-2010-BLG-477L and the Jupiter-sized exoplanet orbiting it.[6][7][8]
Long after the death of the Solar System, physicists expect that matter itself will eventually disintegrate under the influence of radioactive decay, as even the most stable materials break apart into subatomic particles.[9] Current data suggests that the universe has a flat geometry (or very close to flat) and will therefore not collapse in on itself after a finite time.[10] This infinite future could allow for the occurrence of massively improbable events, such as the formation of Boltzmann brains.[11]
Years from now | Event | |
---|---|---|
1,000 | Due to the lunar tides decelerating the Earth's rotation, the average length of a solar day will be 1⁄30 SI second longer than it is today. To compensate, either a leap second will have to be added to the end of a day multiple times during each month, or one or more consecutive leap seconds will have to be added at the end of some or all months.[12] | |
1,100 | As Earth's poles precess, Gamma Cephei replaces Polaris as the northern pole star.[13] | |
10,000 | If a failure of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin "ice plug" in the next few centuries were to endanger the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, it would take up to this long to melt completely. Sea levels would rise 3 to 4 metres.[14] One of the potential long-term effects of global warming, this is separate from the shorter-term threat to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. | |
10,000 – 1 million [note 1] | The red supergiant stars Betelgeuse and Antares will likely have exploded as supernovae. For a few months, the explosions should be easily visible on Earth in daylight.[15][16][17][18][19] | |
11,700 | As Earth's poles precess, Vega, the fifth-brightest star in the sky, becomes the northern pole star.[20] Although Earth cycles through many different naked eye northern pole stars, Vega is the brightest. | |
11,000–15,000 | By this point, halfway through Earth's precessional cycle, Earth's axial tilt will be mirrored, causing summer and winter to occur on opposite sides of Earth's orbit. This means that the seasons in the Southern Hemisphere will be less extreme than they are today, as it will be facing away from the Sun at Earth's perihelion and towards the Sun at aphelion, while the seasons in the Northern Hemisphere, which experiences more pronounced seasonal variation due to a higher percentage of land, will be more extreme.[21] | |
15,000 | The oscillating tilt of Earth's poles will move the North African Monsoon far enough north to change the climate of the Sahara back into a tropical one such as it had 5,000–10,000 years ago.[22][23] | |
17,000[note 1] | The best-guess recurrence rate for a "civilization-threatening" supervolcanic eruption large enough to eject one teratonne (one trillion tonnes) of pyroclastic material.[24][25] | |
25,000 | Mars' northern polar ice cap could recede as Mars reaches a warming peak of the northern hemisphere during the c. 50,000-year perihelion precession aspect of its Milankovitch cycle.[26][27] | |
36,000 | The small red dwarf Ross 248 will pass within 3.024 light-years of Earth, becoming the closest star to the Sun.[28] It will recede after about 8,000 years, making first Alpha Centauri (again) and then Gliese 445 the nearest stars[28] (see timeline). | |
50,000 | According to Berger and Loutre (2002), the current interglacial period will end,[29] sending the Earth back into a glacial period of the current ice age, regardless of the effects of anthropogenic global warming.
However, according to more recent studies in 2016, anthropogenic climate change, if left unchecked, may delay this otherwise expected glacial period by as much as an additional 50,000 years, potentially skipping it entirely.[30] Niagara Falls will have eroded the remaining 32 km to Lake Erie and will therefore cease to exist.[31] The many glacial lakes of the Canadian Shield will have been erased by post-glacial rebound and erosion.[32] | |
50,000 | Due to lunar tides decelerating the Earth's rotation, a day on Earth is expected to be one SI second longer than it is today. To compensate, either a leap second will have to be added to the end of every day, or the length of the day will have to be officially lengthened by one SI second.[12] | |
100,000 | The proper motion of stars across the celestial sphere, which results from their movement through the Milky Way, renders many of the constellations unrecognizable.[33] | |
100,000[note 1] | The red hypergiant star VY Canis Majoris will likely have exploded in a supernova.[34] | |
100,000 | Native North American earthworms, such as Megascolecidae, will have naturally spread north through the United States Upper Midwest to the Canada–US border, recovering from the Laurentide Ice Sheet glaciation (38°N to 49°N), assuming a migration rate of 10 metres per year, and that a possible renewed glaciation by this time has not prevented this.[35] (However, humans have already introduced non-native invasive earthworms of North America on a much shorter timescale, causing a shock to the regional ecosystem.) | |
100,000 – 10 million[note 1] | Cupid and Belinda, moons of Uranus, will likely have collided.[36] | |
> 100,000 | As one of the long-term effects of global warming, ten percent of anthropogenic carbon dioxide will still remain in a stabilized atmosphere.[37] | |
250,000 | Kamaʻehuakanaloa (formerly Lōʻihi), the youngest volcano in the Hawaiian–Emperor seamount chain, will rise above the surface of the ocean and become a new volcanic island.[38] | |
c. 300,000[note 1] | At some point in the next few hundred thousand years, the Wolf–Rayet star WR 104 may explode in a supernova. There is a small chance that WR 104 is spinning fast enough to produce a gamma-ray burst (GRB), and an even smaller chance that such a GRB could pose a threat to life on Earth.[39][40] | |
500,000[note 1] | Earth will likely have been hit by an asteroid of roughly 1 km in diameter, assuming that it is not averted.[41] | |
500,000 | The rugged terrain of Badlands National Park in South Dakota will have eroded completely.[42] | |
1 million | Meteor Crater, a large impact crater in Arizona considered the "freshest" of its kind, will have worn away.[43] | |
1 million[note 1] | Desdemona and Cressida, moons of Uranus, will likely have collided.[44] | |
1.29 ± 0.04 million | The star Gliese 710 will pass as close as 0.051 parsecs (0.1663 light-years; 10,520 astronomical units)[45] to the Sun before moving away. This will gravitationally perturb members of the Oort cloud, a halo of icy bodies orbiting at the edge of the Solar System, thereafter raising the likelihood of a cometary impact in the inner Solar System.[46] | |
2 million | The estimated time for the full recovery of coral reef ecosystems from human-caused ocean acidification if such acidification goes unchecked; the recovery of marine ecosystems after the acidification event that occurred about 65 million years ago took a similar length of time.[47] | |
2 million+ | The Grand Canyon will erode further, deepening slightly, but principally widening into a broad valley surrounding the Colorado River.[48] | |
2.7 million | The average orbital half-life of current centaurs, which are unstable because of gravitational interactions with the several outer planets.[49] See predictions for notable centaurs. | |
3 million | Due to tidal deceleration gradually slowing Earth's rotation, a day on Earth is expected to be one minute longer than it is today.[12] | |
10 million | The Red Sea will flood the widening East African Rift valley, causing a new ocean basin to divide the continent of Africa[50] and the African Plate into the newly formed Nubian Plate and the Somali Plate.
The Indian Plate will advance into Tibet by 180 km (110 mi). Nepali territory, whose boundaries are defined by the Himalayan peaks and on the plains of India, will cease to exist.[51] | |
10 million | The estimated time for full recovery of biodiversity after a potential Holocene extinction, if it were on the scale of the five previous major extinction events.[52]
Even without a mass extinction, by this time most current species will have disappeared through the background extinction rate, with many clades gradually evolving into new forms.[53][54] | |
50 million | Maximum estimated time before the moon Phobos collides with Mars.[55] | |
50 million | According to Christopher Scotese, the movement of the San Andreas Fault will cause the Gulf of California to flood into the California Central Valley. This will form a new inland sea on the West Coast of North America, causing the current locations of Los Angeles, California, and San Francisco, California to merge.[56][failed verification] The Californian coast will begin to be subducted into the Aleutian Trench.[57]
Africa's collision with Eurasia will close the Mediterranean Basin and create a mountain range similar to the Himalayas.[58] The Appalachian Mountains peaks will largely wear away,[59] weathering at 5.7 Bubnoff units, although topography will actually rise as regional valleys deepen at twice this rate.[60] | |
50–60 million | The Canadian Rockies will wear away to a plain, assuming a rate of 60 Bubnoff units.[61] The Southern Rockies in the United States are eroding at a somewhat slower rate.[62] | |
50–400 million | The estimated time for Earth to naturally replenish its fossil fuel reserves.[63] | |
80 million | The Big Island will have become the last of the current Hawaiian Islands to sink beneath the surface of the ocean, while a more recently formed chain of "new Hawaiian Islands" will then have emerged in their place.[64] | |
100 million[note 1] | Earth will likely have been hit by an asteroid comparable in size to the one that triggered the K–Pg extinction 66 million years ago, assuming this is not averted.[65] | |
100 million | According to the Pangaea Proxima model created by Christopher R. Scotese, a new subduction zone will open in the Atlantic Ocean, and the Americas will begin to converge back toward Africa.[56][failed verification]
Upper estimate for lifespan of the rings of Saturn in their current state.[66] | |
110 million | The Sun's luminosity will have increased by one percent.[67] | |
180 million | Due to the gradual slowing of Earth's rotation, a day on Earth will be one hour longer than it is today.[12] | |
240 million | From its present position, the Solar System completes one full orbit of the Galactic Center.[68] | |
250 million | According to Christopher R. Scotese, due to the northward movement of the West Coast of North America, the coast of California will collide with Alaska.[56][failed verification] | |
250–350 million | All the continents on Earth may fuse into a supercontinent.[56][69] Four potential arrangements of this configuration have been dubbed Amasia, Novopangaea, Pangaea Proxima and Aurica. This will likely result in a glacial period, lowering sea levels and increasing oxygen levels, further lowering global temperatures.[70][71] | |
> 250 million | The supercontinent's formation, thanks to a combination of continentality increasing distance from the ocean, an increase in volcanic activity resulting in atmospheric CO2 at double current levels, increased interspecific competition, and a 2.5 percent increase in solar flux, is likely to trigger an extinction event comparable to the Great Dying 250 million years ago. Mammals in particular are unlikely to survive.[72][73] | |
300 million | Due to a shift in the equatorial Hadley cells to roughly 40° north and south, the amount of arid land will increase by 25%.[73] | |
300–600 million | The estimated time for Venus's mantle temperature to reach its maximum. Then, over a period of about 100 million years, major subduction occurs and the crust is recycled.[74] | |
350 million | According to the extroversion model first developed by Paul F. Hoffman, subduction ceases in the Pacific Ocean Basin.[69][75] | |
400–500 million | The supercontinent (Pangaea Proxima, Novopangaea, Amasia, or Aurica) will likely have rifted apart.[69] This will likely result in higher global temperatures, similar to the Cretaceous period.[71] | |
500 million[note 1] | The estimated time until a gamma-ray burst, or massive, hyperenergetic supernova, occurs within 6,500 light-years of Earth; close enough for its rays to affect Earth's ozone layer and potentially trigger a mass extinction, assuming the hypothesis is correct that a previous such explosion triggered the Ordovician–Silurian extinction event. However, the supernova would have to be precisely oriented relative to Earth to have such effect.[76] | |
600 million | Tidal acceleration moves the Moon far enough from Earth that total solar eclipses are no longer possible.[77] | |
500–600 million | The Sun's increasing luminosity begins to disrupt the carbonate–silicate cycle; higher luminosity increases weathering of surface rocks, which traps carbon dioxide in the ground as carbonate. As water evaporates from the Earth's surface, rocks harden, causing plate tectonics to slow and eventually stop once the oceans evaporate completely. With less volcanism to recycle carbon into the Earth's atmosphere, carbon dioxide levels begin to fall.[78] By this time, carbon dioxide levels will fall to the point at which C3 photosynthesis is no longer possible. All plants that use C3 photosynthesis (roughly 99 percent of present-day species) will die.[79] The extinction of C3 plant life is likely to be a long-term decline rather than a sharp drop. It is likely that plant groups will die one by one well before the critical carbon dioxide level is reached. The first plants to disappear will be C3 herbaceous plants, followed by deciduous forests, evergreen broad-leaf forests, and finally evergreen conifers.[73] | |
500–800 million | As Earth begins to warm, and carbon dioxide levels fall, plants—and, by extension, animals—could survive longer by evolving other strategies such as requiring less carbon dioxide for photosynthetic processes, becoming carnivorous, adapting to desiccation, or associating with fungi. These adaptations are likely to appear near the beginning of the moist greenhouse.[73] The decrease in plant life will result in less oxygen in the atmosphere, allowing for more DNA-damaging ultraviolet radiation to reach the surface. The rising temperatures will increase chemical reactions in the atmosphere, further lowering oxygen levels. Plant and animal communities become increasingly sparse and isolated as the Earth becomes more barren. Flying animals would be better off because of their ability to travel large distances looking for cooler temperatures.[80] Many animals may be driven to the poles or possibly underground. These creatures would become active during the polar night and aestivate during the polar day due to the intense heat and radiation. Much of the land would become a barren desert, and plants and animals would primarily be found in the oceans.[80] | |
500–800 million | As pointed out by Peter Ward and Donald Brownlee in their book The Life and Death of Planet Earth, according to NASA Ames scientist Kevin Zahnle, this is the earliest time for plate tectonics to eventually stop, due to the gradual cooling of the Earth's core, which could potentially turn the Earth back into a waterworld. This would, in turn, likely cause the extinction of animal life on Earth.[80] | |
800–900 million | Carbon dioxide levels will fall to the point at which C4 photosynthesis is no longer possible.[79] Without plant life to recycle oxygen in the atmosphere, free oxygen and the ozone layer will disappear from the atmosphere allowing for intense levels of deadly UV light to reach the surface. Animals in food chains that were dependent on live plants will disappear shortly afterward.[73] At most, animal life could survive about 3 to 100 million years after plant life dies out. Just like plants, the extinction of animals will likely coincide with the loss of plants. It will start with large animals, then smaller animals and flying creatures, then amphibians, followed by reptiles and, finally, invertebrates.[78] In the book The Life and Death of Planet Earth, authors Peter D. Ward and Donald Brownlee state that some animal life may be able to survive in the oceans. Eventually, however, all multicellular life will die out.[81] The first sea animals to go extinct will be large fish, followed by small fish and then, finally, invertebrates.[78] The last animals to go extinct will be animals that do not depend on living plants, such as termites, or those near hydrothermal vents, such as worms of the genus Riftia.[73] The only life left on the Earth after this will be single-celled organisms. | |
1 billion[note 2] | 27% of the ocean's mass will have been subducted into the mantle. If this were to continue uninterrupted, it would reach an equilibrium where 65% of present-day surface water would be subducted.[82] | |
1 billion | By this point, the Sagittarius Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxy will have been completely consumed by the Milky Way.[83] | |
1.1 billion | The Sun's luminosity will have increased by 10%, causing Earth's surface temperatures to reach an average of around 320 K (47 °C; 116 °F). The atmosphere will become a "moist greenhouse", resulting in a runaway evaporation of the oceans.[78][84] This would cause plate tectonics to stop completely, if not already stopped before this time.[85] Pockets of water may still be present at the poles, allowing abodes for simple life.[86][87] | |
1.2 billion | High estimate until all plant life dies out, assuming some form of photosynthesis is possible despite extremely low carbon dioxide levels. If this is possible, rising temperatures will make any animal life unsustainable from this point on.[88][89][90] | |
1.3 billion | Eukaryotic life dies out on Earth due to carbon dioxide starvation. Only prokaryotes remain.[81] | |
1.5 billion | Callisto is captured into the mean-motion resonance of the other Galilean moons of Jupiter, completing the 1:2:4:8 chain. (Currently only Io, Europa and Ganymede participate in the 1:2:4 resonance.)[91] | |
1.5–1.6 billion | The Sun's rising luminosity causes its circumstellar habitable zone to move outwards; as carbon dioxide rises in Mars' atmosphere, its surface temperature rises to levels akin to Earth during the ice age.[81][92] | |
1.5–4.5 billion | Tidal acceleration moves the Moon far enough from the Earth to the point where it can no longer stabilize Earth's axial tilt. As a consequence, Earth's true polar wander becomes chaotic and extreme, leading to dramatic shifts in the planet's climate due to the changing axial tilt.[93] | |
1.6 billion | Lower estimate until all remaining life, which by now had been reduced to colonies of unicellular organisms in isolated microenvironments such as high-altitude lakes and caves, goes extinct.[78][81][94] | |
< 2 billion | The first close passage of the Andromeda Galaxy and the Milky Way.[95] | |
2 billion | High estimate until the Earth's oceans evaporate if the atmospheric pressure were to decrease via the nitrogen cycle.[96] | |
2.55 billion | The Sun will have reached a maximum surface temperature of 5,820 K (5,550 °C; 10,020 °F). From then on, it will become gradually cooler while its luminosity will continue to increase.[84] | |
2.8 billion | Earth's surface temperature will reach around 420 K (147 °C; 296 °F), even at the poles.[78][94] | |
2.8 billion | High estimate until all remaining Earth life goes extinct.[78][94] | |
3–4 billion | The Earth's core freezes if the inner core continues to grow in size, based on its current growth rate of 1 mm (0.039 in) in diameter per year.[97][98][99] Without its liquid outer core, Earth's magnetosphere shuts down,[100] and solar winds gradually deplete the atmosphere.[101] | |
c. 3 billion[note 1] | There is a roughly 1-in-100,000 chance that the Earth will be ejected into interstellar space by a stellar encounter before this point, and a 1-in-300-billion chance that it will be both ejected into space and captured by another star around this point. If this were to happen, any remaining life on Earth could potentially survive for far longer if it survived the interstellar journey.[102] | |
3.3 billion[note 1] | There is a roughly one percent chance that Jupiter's gravity may make Mercury's orbit so eccentric as to cross Venus's orbit by this time, sending the inner Solar System into chaos. Other possible scenarios include Mercury colliding with the Sun, being ejected from the Solar System, or colliding with Venus or Earth.[103][104] | |
3.5–4.5 billion | The Sun's luminosity will have increased by 35–40%, causing all water currently present in lakes and oceans to evaporate, if it had not done so earlier. The greenhouse effect caused by the massive, water-rich atmosphere will result in Earth's surface temperature rising to 1,400 K (1,130 °C; 2,060 °F)—hot enough to melt some surface rock.[85][96][105][106] | |
3.6 billion | Neptune's moon Triton falls through the planet's Roche limit, potentially disintegrating into a planetary ring system similar to Saturn's.[107] | |
4.5 billion | Mars reaches the same solar flux as that of the Earth when it first formed 4.5 billion years ago from today.[92] | |
< 5 billion | The Andromeda Galaxy will have fully merged with the Milky Way, forming an elliptical galaxy dubbed "Milkomeda".[95] There is also a small chance of the Solar System being ejected.[95][108] The planets of the Solar System will almost certainly not be disturbed by these events.[109][110][111] | |
5.4 billion | The Sun, having now exhausted its hydrogen supply, leaves the main sequence and begins evolving into a red giant.[112] | |
6.5 billion | Mars reaches the same solar radiation flux as Earth today, after which it will suffer a similar fate to the Earth as described above.[92] | |
6.6 billion | The Sun may experience a helium flash, resulting in its core becoming as bright as the combined luminosity of all the stars in the Milky Way galaxy.[113] | |
7.5 billion | Earth and Mars may become tidally locked with the expanding red giant Sun.[92] | |
7.59 billion | The Earth and Moon are very likely destroyed by falling into the Sun, just before the Sun reaches the top of its red giant phase.[112][note 3] Before the final collision, the Moon possibly spirals below Earth's Roche limit, breaking into a ring of debris, most of which falls to the Earth's surface.[114]
During this era, Saturn's moon Titan may reach surface temperatures necessary to support life.[115] | |
7.9 billion | The Sun reaches the top of the red-giant branch of the Hertzsprung–Russell diagram, achieving its maximum radius of 256 times the present-day value.[116] In the process, Mercury, Venus and Earth are likely destroyed.[112] | |
8 billion | The Sun becomes a carbon–oxygen white dwarf with about 54.05% of its present mass.[112][117][118][119] At this point, if the Earth survives, temperatures on the surface of the planet, as well as the other planets in the Solar System, will begin dropping rapidly, due to the white dwarf Sun emitting much less energy than it does today. | |
22.3 billion | The estimated time until the end of the universe in a Big Rip, assuming a model of dark energy with w = −1.5.[120][121] If the density of dark energy is less than −1, then the universe's expansion will continue to accelerate and the observable universe will grow ever sparser. Around 200 million years before the Big Rip, galaxy clusters like the Local Group or the Sculptor Group will be destroyed; 60 million years before the Big Rip, all galaxies will begin to lose stars around their edges and will completely disintegrate in another 40 million years; three months before the Big Rip, star systems will become gravitationally unbound, and planets will fly off into the rapidly expanding universe; thirty minutes before the Big Rip, planets, stars, asteroids and even extreme objects like neutron stars and black holes will evaporate into atoms; one hundred zeptoseconds (10−19 seconds) before the Big Rip, atoms will break apart. Ultimately, once the Rip reaches the Planck scale, cosmic strings would be disintegrated as well as the fabric of spacetime itself. The universe would enter into a "rip singularity" when all non-zero distances become infinitely large. Whereas a "crunch singularity" involves all matter being infinitely concentrated, in a "rip singularity", all matter is infinitely spread out.[122] However, observations of galaxy cluster speeds by the Chandra X-ray Observatory suggest that the true value of w is c. −0.991, meaning the Big Rip is unlikely to occur.[123] | |
50 billion | If the Earth and Moon are not engulfed by the Sun, by this time they will become tidally locked, with each showing only one face to the other.[124][125] Thereafter, the tidal action of the white dwarf Sun will extract angular momentum from the system, causing the lunar orbit to decay and the Earth's spin to accelerate.[126] | |
65 billion | The Moon may collide with the Earth or be torn apart to form an orbital ring due to the decay of its orbit, assuming the Earth and Moon have not already been destroyed.[127] | |
100 billion – 1012 (1 trillion) | All the ≈47 galaxies[128] of the Local Group will coalesce into a single large galaxy—an expanded "Milkomeda"/"Milkdromeda"; the last galaxies of the Local Group coalescing will mark the effective completion of its evolution.[9] | |
100–150 billion | The universe's expansion causes all galaxies beyond the former Local Group to disappear beyond the cosmic light horizon, removing them from the observable universe.[129][130] | |
150 billion | The universe will have expanded by a factor of 6,000, and the cosmic microwave background will have cooled by the same factor to around 4.5×10−4 K. The temperature of the background will continue to cool in proportion to the expansion of the universe.[130] | |
325 billion | The estimated time by which the expansion of the universe isolates all gravitationally bound structures within their own cosmological horizon. At this point, the universe has expanded by a factor of more than 100 million from today, and even individual exiled stars are isolated.[131] | |
800 billion | The expected time when the net light emission from the combined "Milkomeda" galaxy begins to decline as the red dwarf stars pass through their blue dwarf stage of peak luminosity.[132] | |
1012 (1 trillion) | A low estimate for the time until star formation ends in galaxies as galaxies are depleted of the gas clouds they need to form stars.[9]
The Universe's expansion, assuming a constant dark energy density, multiplies the wavelength of the cosmic microwave background by 1029, exceeding the scale of the cosmic light horizon and rendering its evidence of the Big Bang undetectable. However, it may still be possible to determine the expansion of the universe through the study of hypervelocity stars.[129] | |
1.05×1012 (1.05 trillion) | The estimated time by which the universe will have expanded by a factor of more than 1026, reducing the average particle density to less than one particle per cosmological horizon volume. Beyond this point, particles of unbound intergalactic matter are effectively isolated, and collisions between them cease to affect the future evolution of the universe.[131] | |
1.4×1012 (1.4 trillion) | The estimated time by which the cosmic background radiation cools to a floor temperature of 10−30 K and does not decline further. This residual temperature comes from horizon radiation, which does not decline over time.[130] | |
2×1012 (2 trillion) | The estimated time by which all objects beyond our former Local Group are redshifted by a factor of more than 1053. Even gamma rays that they emit are stretched so that their wavelengths are greater than the physical diameter of the horizon. The resolution time for such radiation will exceed the physical age of the universe.[133] | |
4×1012 (4 trillion) | The estimated time until the red dwarf star Proxima Centauri, the closest star to the Sun today, at a distance of 4.25 light-years, leaves the main sequence and becomes a white dwarf.[134] | |
1013 (10 trillion) | The estimated time of peak habitability in the universe, unless habitability around low-mass stars is suppressed.[135] | |
1.2×1013 (12 trillion) | The estimated time until the red dwarf VB 10, as of 2016 the least-massive main-sequence star with an estimated mass of 0.075 M☉, runs out of hydrogen in its core and becomes a white dwarf.[136][137] | |
3×1013 (30 trillion) | The estimated time for stars (including the Sun) to undergo a close encounter with another star in local stellar neighborhoods. Whenever two stars (or stellar remnants) pass close to each other, their planets' orbits can be disrupted, potentially ejecting them from the system entirely. On average, the closer a planet's orbit to its parent star the longer it takes to be ejected in this manner, because it is gravitationally more tightly bound to the star.[138] | |
1014 (100 trillion) | A high estimate for the time by which normal star formation ends in galaxies.[9] This marks the transition from the Stelliferous Era to the Degenerate Era; with too little free hydrogen to form new stars, all remaining stars slowly exhaust their fuel and die.[139] By this time, the universe will have expanded by a factor of approximately 102554.[131] | |
1.1–1.2×1014 (110–120 trillion) | The time by which all stars in the universe will have exhausted their fuel (the longest-lived stars, low-mass red dwarfs, have lifespans of roughly 10–20 trillion years).[9] After this point, the stellar-mass objects remaining are stellar remnants (white dwarfs, neutron stars, black holes) and brown dwarfs.
Collisions between brown dwarfs will create new red dwarfs on a marginal level: on average, about 100 stars will be shining in what was once "Milkomeda". Collisions between stellar remnants will create occasional supernovae.[9] | |
1015 (1 quadrillion) | The estimated time until stellar close encounters detach all planets in star systems (including the Solar System) from their orbits.[9]
By this point, the black dwarf that was once the Sun will have cooled to 5 K (−268.15 °C; −450.67 °F).[140] | |
1019 to 1020 (10–100 quintillion) |
The estimated time until 90–99% of brown dwarfs and stellar remnants (including the Sun) are ejected from galaxies. When two objects pass close enough to each other, they exchange orbital energy, with lower-mass objects tending to gain energy. Through repeated encounters, the lower-mass objects can gain enough energy in this manner to be ejected from their galaxy. This process eventually causes "Milkomeda"/"Milkdromeda" to eject the majority of its brown dwarfs and stellar remnants.[9][141] | |
1020 (100 quintillion) | The estimated time until the Earth collides with the black dwarf Sun due to the decay of its orbit via emission of gravitational radiation,[142] if the Earth is not ejected from its orbit by a stellar encounter or engulfed by the Sun during its red giant phase.[142] | |
1023 (100 sextillion) | Around this timescale most stellar remnants and other objects are ejected from the remains of their galactic cluster.[143] | |
1030 (1 nonillion) | The estimated time until most or all of the remaining 1–10% of stellar remnants not ejected from galaxies fall into their galaxies' central supermassive black holes. By this point, with binary stars having fallen into each other, and planets into their stars, via emission of gravitational radiation, only solitary objects (stellar remnants, brown dwarfs, ejected planetary-mass objects, black holes) will remain in the universe.[9] | |
2×1036 (2 undecillion) | The estimated time for all nucleons in the observable universe to decay, if the hypothesized proton half-life takes its smallest possible value (8.2 × 1033 years).[144][note 4] | |
1036–1038 (1–100 undecillion) | Estimated time for all remaining planets and stellar-mass objects, including the Sun, to disintegrate if proton decay can occur.[9] | |
3×1043 (30 tredecillion) | Estimated time for all nucleons in the observable universe to decay, if the hypothesized proton half-life takes the largest possible value, 1041 years,[9] assuming that the Big Bang was inflationary and that the same process that made baryons predominate over anti-baryons in the early universe makes protons decay. By this time, if protons do decay, the Black Hole Era, in which black holes are the only remaining celestial objects, begins.[9][139] | |
3.14×1050 (314 quindecillion) | The estimated time until a micro black hole of 1 Earth mass today, decays into subatomic particles by the emission of Hawking radiation.[145] | |
1065 (100 vigintillion) | Assuming that protons do not decay, estimated time for rigid objects, from free-floating rocks in space to planets, to rearrange their atoms and molecules via quantum tunnelling. On this timescale, any discrete body of matter "behaves like a liquid" and becomes a smooth sphere due to diffusion and gravity.[142] | |
1.16×1067 (11.6 unvigintillion) | The estimated time until a black hole of 1 solar mass today, decays by Hawking radiation.[145] | |
1.54×1091–1.41×1092 (15.4–141 novemvigintillion) | The estimated time until the resulting supermassive black hole of "Milkomeda"/"Milkdromeda" from the merger of Sagittarius A* and the P2 concentration during the collision of the Milky Way and Andromeda galaxies[146] vanishes by Hawking radiation,[145] assuming it does not accrete any additional matter nor merge with other black holes—though it is most likely that this supermassive black hole will nonetheless merge with other supermassive black holes during the gravitational collapse towards "Milkomeda"/"Milkdromeda" of other Local Group galaxies.[147] This supermassive black hole might be the very last entity from the former Local Group to disappear—and the last evidence of its existence. | |
10106 – 2.1×10109 | The estimated time until ultramassive black holes of 1014 (100 trillion) solar masses, predicted to form during the gravitational collapse of galaxy superclusters,[148] decay by Hawking radiation.[145] This marks the end of the Black Hole Era. Beyond this time, if protons do decay, the universe enters the Dark Era, in which all physical objects have decayed to subatomic particles, gradually winding down to their final energy state in the heat death of the universe.[9][139] | |
10161 | A 2018 estimate of Standard Model lifetime before collapse of a false vacuum; 95% confidence interval is 1065 to 101383 years due in part to uncertainty about the top quark's mass.[149][note 5] | |
10200 | The highest estimate for the time it would take for all nucleons in the observable universe to decay, if they do not decay via the above process, but instead through any one of many different mechanisms allowed in modern particle physics (higher-order baryon non-conservation processes, virtual black holes, sphalerons, etc.) on time scales of 1046 to 10200 years.[139] | |
101100–32000 | The estimated time for black dwarfs of 1.2 solar masses or more to undergo supernovae as a result of slow silicon–nickel–iron fusion, as the declining electron fraction lowers their Chandrasekhar limit, assuming protons do not decay.[150] | |
101500 | Assuming protons do not decay, estimated time until all baryonic matter in stellar remnants, planets and planetary-mass objects has either fused together via muon-catalyzed fusion to form iron-56 or decayed from a higher mass element into iron-56 to form iron stars.[142] | |
[note 6][note 7] | A low estimate for the time until all iron stars collapse via quantum tunnelling into black holes, assuming no proton decay or virtual black holes, and that Planck-scale black holes can exist.[142]
On this vast timescale, even ultra-stable iron stars will have been destroyed by quantum-tunnelling events. At this lower end of the timescale, iron stars decay directly to black holes, as this decay mode is much more favourable than decaying into a neutron star (which has an expected timescale of years)[142] and later decaying into a black hole. The subsequent evaporation of each resulting black hole into subatomic particles (a process lasting roughly 10100 years), and subsequent shift to the Dark Era is on these timescales instantaneous. | |
[note 1][note 7] |
The estimated time for a Boltzmann brain to appear in the vacuum via a spontaneous entropy decrease.[11] | |
[note 7] | Highest estimate for the time until all iron stars collapse via quantum tunnelling into neutron stars or black holes, assuming no proton decay or virtual black holes, and that black holes below the Chandrasekhar mass cannot form directly.[142] On these timescales, neutron stars above the Chandrasekhar mass rapidly collapse into black holes, and black holes formed by these processes instantly evaporate into subatomic particles.
This is also the highest estimated possible time for the Black Hole Era (and subsequent Dark Era) to commence. Beyond this point, it is almost certain that the universe will be an almost pure vacuum, with all baryonic matter having decayed into subatomic particles, gradually winding down their energy level until it reaches its final energy state, assuming it does not happen before this time. | |
[note 7] | The highest estimate for the time it takes for the universe to reach its final energy state.[11] | |
[note 1][note 7] | Around this vast timeframe, quantum tunnelling in any isolated patch of the universe could generate new inflationary events, resulting in new Big Bangs giving birth to new universes.[151]
(Because the total number of ways in which all the subatomic particles in the observable universe can be combined is ,[152][153] a number which, when multiplied by , is approximately , this is also the time required for a quantum-tunnelled and quantum fluctuation-generated Big Bang to produce a new universe identical to our own, assuming that every new universe contained at least the same number of subatomic particles and obeyed laws of physics within the landscape predicted by string theory.)[154][155] |
Humanity and human constructs
[edit]To date, five spacecraft (Voyager 1, Voyager 2, Pioneer 10, Pioneer 11 and New Horizons) are on trajectories that will take them out of the Solar System and into interstellar space. Barring an extremely unlikely collision with some object, all five should persist indefinitely.[156]
Date (CE) or years from now | Event | |
---|---|---|
1,000 | The SNAP-10A nuclear satellite, launched in 1965 into an orbit 700 km (430 mi) above Earth, will return to the surface.[157][158] | |
3183 CE | The Zeitpyramide (time pyramid), a public art work started in 1993 at Wemding, Germany, is scheduled for completion.[159] | |
2,000 | Maximum lifespan of the data films in Arctic World Archive, a repository that contains code of open-source projects on GitHub along with other data of historical interest (if stored in optimum conditions).[160] | |
10,000 | The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant for nuclear weapons waste is planned to be protected until this time, with a "Permanent Marker" system designed to warn off visitors through multiple languages (the six UN languages and Navajo) and pictograms.[161] The Human Interference Task Force has provided the theoretical basis for United States plans for future nuclear semiotics.[162] | |
10,000 | Planned lifespan of the Long Now Foundation's several ongoing projects, including a 10,000-year clock known as the Clock of the Long Now, the Rosetta Project and the Long Bet Project.[163]
Estimated lifespan of the HD-Rosetta analog disc—an ion beam-etched writing medium on nickel plate, a technology developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory and later commercialized. (The Rosetta Project uses this technology, named after the Rosetta Stone.) | |
10,000 | Projected lifespan of Norway's Svalbard Global Seed Vault.[164] | |
10,000 | Most probable estimated lifespan of technological civilization, according to Frank Drake's original formulation of the Drake equation.[165] | |
10,000 | If globalization trends lead to panmixia, human genetic variation will no longer be regionalized, as the effective population size will equal the actual population size.[166] | |
20,000 | According to the glottochronology linguistic model of Morris Swadesh, future languages should retain just one out of every 100 "core vocabulary" words on their Swadesh list compared to that of their current progenitors.[167]
The Chernobyl Exclusion Zone is expected to become habitable again.[168] | |
24,110 | Half-life of plutonium-239.[169] At this point the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, the 2,600-square-kilometre (1,000 sq mi) area of Ukraine and Belarus left deserted by the 1986 Chernobyl disaster, will return to normal levels of radiation.[170] | |
25,000 | The Arecibo message, a collection of radio data transmitted on 16 November 1974, will reach the distance of its destination: the globular cluster Messier 13.[171] This is the only interstellar radio message sent to such a distant region of the galaxy. There will be a 24-light-year shift in the cluster's position in the galaxy during the time taken for the message to reach it, but as the cluster is 168 light-years in diameter, the message will still reach its destination.[172] Any reply will take at least another 25,000 years from the time of its transmission (assuming no faster-than-light communication is possible). | |
14 September 30828 CE | Maximum system time for 64-bit NTFS-based Windows operating system.[173] | |
33,800 | Pioneer 10 passes within 3.4 light-years of Ross 248.[174] | |
42,200 | Voyager 2 passes within 1.7 light-years of Ross 248.[174] | |
44,100 | Voyager 1 passes within 1.8 light-years of Gliese 445.[174] | |
46,600 | Pioneer 11 passes within 1.9 light-years of Gliese 445.[174] | |
50,000 | Estimated atmospheric lifetime of tetrafluoromethane, the most durable greenhouse gas.[175] | |
90,300 | Pioneer 10 passes within 0.76 light-years of HIP 117795.[174] | |
100,000+ | Time required to terraform Mars with an oxygen-rich breathable atmosphere, using only plants with solar efficiency comparable to the biosphere currently found on Earth.[176] | |
100,000–1 million | Estimated time by which humanity could colonize the Milky Way galaxy and become capable of harnessing all the energy of the galaxy, assuming a velocity of 10% the speed of light.[177] | |
250,000 | The estimated minimum time at which the spent plutonium stored at New Mexico's Waste Isolation Pilot Plant will cease to be radiologically lethal to humans.[178] | |
13 September 275760 CE | Maximum system time for the JavaScript programming language.[179] | |
492,300 | Voyager 1 passes within 1.3 light-years of HD 28343.[174] | |
1 million | Estimated lifespan of Memory of Mankind (MOM) self storage-style repository in Hallstatt salt mine in Austria, which stores information on inscribed tablets of stoneware.[180]
Planned lifespan of the Human Document Project being developed at the University of Twente in the Netherlands.[181] | |
1 million | Current glass objects in the environment will be decomposed.[182]
Various public monuments composed of hard granite will have eroded by one metre, in a moderate climate and assuming a rate of 1 Bubnoff unit (1 mm in 1,000 years, or ≈1 inch in 25,000 years).[183] Without maintenance, the Great Pyramid of Giza will have eroded to the point where it is unrecognizable.[184] On the Moon, Neil Armstrong's "one small step" footprint at Tranquility Base will erode by this time, along with those left by all twelve Apollo moonwalkers, due to the accumulated effects of space weathering.[99][185] (Normal erosion processes active on Earth are not present on the Moon because of its almost complete lack of atmosphere.) | |
1.2 million | Pioneer 11 comes within three light-years of Delta Scuti.[174] | |
2 million | Pioneer 10 passes near the bright star Aldebaran.[186] | |
2 million | Vertebrate species separated for this long will generally undergo allopatric speciation.[187] Evolutionary biologist James W. Valentine predicted that if humanity has been dispersed among genetically isolated space colonies over this time, the galaxy will host an evolutionary radiation of multiple human species with a "diversity of form and adaptation that would astound us".[188] This would be a natural process of isolated populations, unrelated to potential deliberate genetic enhancement technologies. | |
4 million | Pioneer 11 passes near one of the stars in the constellation Aquila.[186] | |
5 million | Due to gradual degeneration, the Y chromosome will have disappeared.[189] | |
7.2 million | Without maintenance, Mount Rushmore will have eroded to the point where it is unrecognizable.[190] | |
7.8 million | Humanity has a 95% probability of extinction by this date, according to J. Richard Gott's formulation of the controversial Doomsday argument.[191] | |
8 million | Most probable lifespan of the Pioneer 10 plaques before the etching is destroyed by poorly understood interstellar erosion processes.[192]
The LAGEOS satellites' orbits will decay, and they will re-enter Earth's atmosphere, carrying with them a message to any far future descendants of humanity and a map of the continents as they are expected to appear then.[193] | |
100 million | Maximal estimated lifespan of technological civilization, according to Frank Drake's original formulation of the Drake equation.[194] | |
100 million | Future archaeologists should be able to identify an "Urban Stratum" of fossilized great coastal cities, mostly through the remains of underground infrastructure such as building foundations and utility tunnels.[195] | |
1 billion | Estimated lifespan of "Nanoshuttle memory device" using an iron nanoparticle moved as a molecular switch through a carbon nanotube, a technology developed at the University of California at Berkeley.[196] | |
1 billion | Estimated lifespan of the two Voyager Golden Records before the information stored on them is rendered unrecoverable.[197]
Estimated time for an astroengineering project to alter the Earth's orbit, compensating for the Sun's increasing brightness and outward migration of the habitable zone, accomplished by repeated asteroid gravity assists.[198][199] | |
292277026596 CE (292 billion) | Numeric overflow in system time for 64-bit Unix systems.[200] | |
1020 (100 quintillion) | Estimated timescale for the Pioneer and Voyager spacecraft to collide with a star (or stellar remnant).[174] | |
3×1019 – 3×1021 (30 quintillion to 3 sextillion) |
Estimated lifespan of "Superman memory crystal" data storage using femtosecond laser-etched nanostructures in glass, a technology developed at the University of Southampton, at an ambient temperature of 30 °C (86 °F; 303 K).[201][202] |
Graphical timelines
[edit]For graphical timelines, logarithmic timelines of these events, see:
- Graphical timeline of the universe (to 8 billion years from now)
- Graphical timeline of the Stelliferous Era (to 1020 years from now)
- Graphical timeline from Big Bang to Heat Death (to 101000 years from now)
See also
[edit]Notes
[edit]- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m This represents the time by which the event will most probably have happened. It may occur randomly at any time from the present.
- ^ Units are short scale.
- ^ This has been a tricky question for quite a while; see the 2001 paper by Rybicki, K. R. and Denis, C. However, according to the latest calculations, this happens with a very high degree of certainty.
- ^ Around 264 half-lives. Tyson et al. employ the computation with a different value for half-life.
- ^ Manuscript was updated after publication; lifetime numbers are taken from the latest revision at https://arxiv.org/abs/1707.08124.
- ^ is 1 followed by 1026 (100 septillion) zeroes.
- ^ a b c d e Although listed in years for convenience, the numbers at this point are so vast that their digits would remain unchanged regardless of which conventional units they were listed in, be they nanoseconds or star lifespans.
- ^ is 1 followed by 1050 (100 quindecillion) zeroes.
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