2024 Montana gubernatorial election: Difference between revisions

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The 2024 Montana gubernatorial election will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of the U.S. state of Montana, concurrently with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Primary elections took place on June 4, 2024.^[1]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Greg Gianforte, incumbent governor (2021–present)^[2]
- Running mate: Kristen Juras, incumbent lieutenant governor (2021–present)^[2]

Eliminated in primary

Tanner Smith, state representative (2023–present)^[3]
- Running mate: Randy Pinocci, member of the Montana Public Service Commission (2019–present)^[4]

Endorsements

Greg Gianforte

Organizations

Results

Republican primary results^[7]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Greg Gianforte (incumbent) Kristen Juras (incumbent)	144,752	75.2%
	Republican	Tanner Smith Randy Pinocci	47,747	24.8%
Total votes			192,499	100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Ryan Busse, author and former vice president of sales at Kimber Manufacturing^[8]
- Running mate: Raph Graybill, former chief legal counsel to Governor Steve Bullock and nominee for Attorney General in 2020^[9]

Eliminated in primary

Jim Hunt, attorney and candidate for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2008^[10]
- Running mate: Jerry Driscoll, former executive secretary of the Montana AFL-CIO^[11]

Withdrawn

Shawn White Wolf, perennial candidate^[12]

Results

Democratic primary results^[13]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Ryan Busse Raph Graybill	69,184	70.9%
	Democratic	Jim Hunt Jerry Driscoll	28,354	29.1%
Total votes			97,538	100.00%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Presumptive nominee

Kaiser Leib, software engineer^[10]
- Running mate: Matt Campbell, transportation engineer^[11]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[14]	Solid R	June 13, 2024
Inside Elections^[15]	Solid R	July 14, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[16]	Safe R	June 4, 2024
RCP^[17]	Likely R	July 13, 2024
Elections Daily^[18]	Safe R	July 12, 2023
CNalysis^[19]	Solid R	August 17, 2024

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Greg Gianforte (R)	Ryan Busse (D)	Other	Undecided
Fabrizio Ward (R)/ David Binder Research (D)^[A]	August 25–29, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	54%	38%	–	8%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)^[B]	August 18–20, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.38%	53%	34%	4%^[b]	8%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)^[B]	June 11–13, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	54%	33%	5%^[c]	8%
SurveyUSA^[C]	February 12–15, 2024	549 (LV)	± 4.5%	52%	30%	–	18%

Results

2024 Montana gubernatorial election
Party		Candidate
	Republican	Greg Gianforte (incumbent) Kristen Juras (incumbent)
	Democratic	Ryan Busse Raph Graybill
	Libertarian	Kaiser Leib Matt Campbell
Total votes

Notes

^ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
^ Kaiser Leib (L) with 4%
^ Kaiser Leib (L) with 5%

Partisan clients

^ Poll sponsored by AARP.
^ ^a ^b Poll sponsored by the Montana Republican Party
^ Poll sponsored by KULR-TV

References

^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". National Conference of State Legislatures. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
^ ^a ^b Anthony, Michael (January 17, 2024). "Governor Greg Gianforte to seek reelection". KFYR-TV. Retrieved January 17, 2024.
^ Larson, Seaborn (June 13, 2023). "Freshman GOP Rep. announces run for governor". Independent Record.
^ Kimbel-Sannit, Arren; Sakariassen, Alex; Eggert, Amanda (April 15, 2024). "Who's running for office in Montana's 2024 election". Montana Free Press. Retrieved May 2, 2024.
^ NRA-PVF. "NRA-PVF | Grades | Montana". NRA-PVF. Retrieved May 13, 2024.
^ Stacy, Nicole (May 3, 2024). "SBA Pro-Life America Candidate Fund Endorses Gianforte for Governor". SBA Pro-Life America. Retrieved May 6, 2024.
^ https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-primary-elections/montana-governor-results#republican-primary
^ Hanson, Amy; Brown, Matthew (September 14, 2023). "Former firearms executive Busse seeks Democratic nomination for Montana governor". Associated Press. Retrieved September 14, 2023.
^ Silvers, Mara (February 19, 2024). "Busse taps Graybill as running mate in bid for governor's office". Montana Free Press. Retrieved February 20, 2024.
^ ^a ^b "FEDERAL PRIMARY 2024 Candidate List". prodcandidatefiling.mt.gov. Retrieved March 12, 2024.
^ ^a ^b Ambarian, Jonathon (March 11, 2024). "Top Montana election races set as candidate filing period closes". KTVH. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
^ Kimbel-Sannit, Arren; Sakariassen, Alex (November 28, 2023). "Who's running for office in Montana in 2024? Here's a running list". Montana Free Press. Retrieved January 17, 2024. Shawn White Wolf, who has run for a number of different positions in the Helena area in recent years, filed to run for governor in 2023 but has since withdrawn his candidacy.
^ https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-primary-elections/montana-governor-results#democratic-primary
^ "2024 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
^ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
^ "2024 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
^ "2024 Governor Races". www.realclearpolling.com. Retrieved July 16, 2024.
^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. July 22, 2023. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
^ "Governor Forecasts". CNalysis. Retrieved August 17, 2024.

External links

Official campaign websites

[Key-20] Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[23] Kaiser Leib (L) with 4%

[24] Kaiser Leib (L) with 5%

[21] Poll sponsored by AARP.

[mtgop-22] Poll sponsored by the Montana Republican Party

[25] Poll sponsored by KULR-TV

[1] "2024 State Primary Election Dates". National Conference of State Legislatures. Retrieved August 6, 2023.

[gianforte-2] Anthony, Michael (January 17, 2024). "Governor Greg Gianforte to seek reelection". KFYR-TV. Retrieved January 17, 2024.

[3] Larson, Seaborn (June 13, 2023). "Freshman GOP Rep. announces run for governor". Independent Record.

[4] Kimbel-Sannit, Arren; Sakariassen, Alex; Eggert, Amanda (April 15, 2024). "Who's running for office in Montana's 2024 election". Montana Free Press. Retrieved May 2, 2024.

[5] NRA-PVF. "NRA-PVF | Grades | Montana". NRA-PVF. Retrieved May 13, 2024.

[6] Stacy, Nicole (May 3, 2024). "SBA Pro-Life America Candidate Fund Endorses Gianforte for Governor". SBA Pro-Life America. Retrieved May 6, 2024.

[7] ttps://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-primary-elections/montana-governor-results#republican-primary

[8] Hanson, Amy; Brown, Matthew (September 14, 2023). "Former firearms executive Busse seeks Democratic nomination for Montana governor". Associated Press. Retrieved September 14, 2023.

[9] Silvers, Mara (February 19, 2024). "Busse taps Graybill as running mate in bid for governor's office". Montana Free Press. Retrieved February 20, 2024.

[:0-10] "FEDERAL PRIMARY 2024 Candidate List". prodcandidatefiling.mt.gov. Retrieved March 12, 2024.

[set-11] Ambarian, Jonathon (March 11, 2024). "Top Montana election races set as candidate filing period closes". KTVH. Retrieved April 5, 2024.

[12] Kimbel-Sannit, Arren; Sakariassen, Alex (November 28, 2023). "Who's running for office in Montana in 2024? Here's a running list". Montana Free Press. Retrieved January 17, 2024. Shawn White Wolf, who has run for a number of different positions in the Helena area in recent years, filed to run for governor in 2023 but has since withdrawn his candidacy.

[13] ttps://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-primary-elections/montana-governor-results#democratic-primary

[14] "2024 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved July 24, 2023.

[Inside_Elections2-15] "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved July 24, 2023.

[Sabato's_Crystal_Ball-16] "2024 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved July 24, 2023.

[17] "2024 Governor Races". www.realclearpolling.com. Retrieved July 16, 2024.

[18] "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. July 22, 2023. Retrieved July 24, 2023.

[19] "Governor Forecasts". CNalysis. Retrieved August 17, 2024.

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@@ Line 144: / Line 144: @@
 ! Undecided
 |-
-|style="text-align:left|[https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/research/topics/voter-opinion-research/politics/ohio-older-voter-survey-2024-report.doi.10.26419-2fres.00813.022.pdf Fabrizio Ward (R)/<br>David Binder Research (D)]{{Efn-ua|Poll sponsored by [[AARP]].}}
+|style="text-align:left|[https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/research/topics/voter-opinion-research/politics/montana-older-voter-survey-2024.doi.10.26419-2fres.00813.034.pdf Fabrizio Ward (R)/<br>David Binder Research (D)]{{Efn-ua|Poll sponsored by [[AARP]].}}
 |August 25–29, 2024
 |600 (LV)

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Revision as of 20:08, 25 September 2024

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Endorsements

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Results

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Presumptive nominee

General election

Predictions

Polling

Results

See also

Notes

References

External links