User:MaxineJP/sandbox: Difference between revisions
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! [[Decision Desk HQ|DDHQ]]<br />{{small|Sep. 25,<br />2024}}<ref>{{Cite web |title=2024 House Forecast {{!}} The Hill and DDHQ |url=https://elections2024.thehill.com/forecast/2024/house/ |access-date=2024-09-26 |website=The Hill}}</ref> |
! [[Decision Desk HQ|DDHQ]]<br />{{small|Sep. 25,<br />2024}}<ref>{{Cite web |title=2024 House Forecast {{!}} The Hill and DDHQ |url=https://elections2024.thehill.com/forecast/2024/house/ |access-date=2024-09-26 |website=The Hill}}</ref> |
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! Race to the WH<br />{{small|Sep. 30,<br />2024}}<ref>https://www.racetothewh.com/house</ref> |
! Race to the WH<br />{{small|Sep. 30,<br />2024}}<ref>https://www.racetothewh.com/house</ref> |
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!RCP |
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! {{ushr|AL|2|X}} |
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! {{ushr|AK|AL|X}} |
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! {{ushr|AZ|1|X}} |
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! {{ushr|AZ|4|X}} |
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! {{ushr|CA|3|X}} |
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| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}} |
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! {{ushr|CA|9|X}} |
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| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
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! {{ushr|CA|13|X}} |
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! {{ushr|CA|27|X}} |
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| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}} |
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! {{ushr|CA|40|X}} |
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| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}} |
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! {{ushr|CA|41|X}} |
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! {{ushr|CA|45|X}} |
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! {{ushr|CA|47|X}} |
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! {{ushr|CA|49|X}} |
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| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
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! {{ushr|CO|3|X}} |
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! {{ushr|CO|5|X}} |
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! {{ushr|CO|8|X}} |
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| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
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! {{ushr|CT|2|X}} |
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| {{USRaceRating|Safe|D}} |
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! {{ushr|CT|5|X}} |
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! {{ushr|FL|7|X}} |
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! {{ushr|FL|27|X}} |
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! {{ushr|FL|28|X}} |
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| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}} |
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! {{ushr|GA|2|X}} |
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| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
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! {{ushr|IL|17|X}} |
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! {{ushr|IN|1|X}} |
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! {{ushr|IA|1|X}} |
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! {{ushr|IA|2|X}} |
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! {{ushr|KS|2|X}} |
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! {{ushr|LA|6|X}} |
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! {{ushr|NJ|9|X}} |
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| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R}} |
||
| |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
! {{ushr|NY|2|X}} |
! {{ushr|NY|2|X}} |
||
Line 773: | Line 836: | ||
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}} |
||
| |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
! {{ushr|NY|3|X}} |
! {{ushr|NY|3|X}} |
||
Line 785: | Line 849: | ||
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
||
| |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
! {{ushr|NY|4|X}} |
! {{ushr|NY|4|X}} |
||
Line 797: | Line 862: | ||
| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Tilt|D|Flip}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Tilt|D|Flip}} |
||
| |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
! {{ushr|NY|17|X}} |
! {{ushr|NY|17|X}} |
||
Line 809: | Line 875: | ||
| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D|Flip}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D|Flip}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}} |
||
| |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
! {{ushr|NY|18|X}} |
! {{ushr|NY|18|X}} |
||
Line 821: | Line 888: | ||
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}} |
||
| |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
! {{ushr|NY|19|X}} |
! {{ushr|NY|19|X}} |
||
Line 833: | Line 901: | ||
| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}} |
||
| |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
! {{ushr|NY|22|X}} |
! {{ushr|NY|22|X}} |
||
Line 845: | Line 914: | ||
| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Tilt|D|Flip}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Tilt|D|Flip}} |
||
| |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
! {{ushr|NC|1|X}} |
! {{ushr|NC|1|X}} |
||
Line 857: | Line 927: | ||
| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Tilt|D}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Tilt|D}} |
||
| |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
! {{ushr|NC|6|X}} |
! {{ushr|NC|6|X}} |
||
Line 869: | Line 940: | ||
| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R|Flip}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R|Flip}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R|Flip}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R|Flip}} |
||
| |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
! {{ushr|NC|8|X}} |
! {{ushr|NC|8|X}} |
||
Line 881: | Line 953: | ||
| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}} |
||
| |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
! {{ushr|NC|10|X}} |
! {{ushr|NC|10|X}} |
||
Line 893: | Line 966: | ||
| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}} |
||
| |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
! {{ushr|NC|11|X}} |
! {{ushr|NC|11|X}} |
||
Line 905: | Line 979: | ||
| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}} |
||
| |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
! {{ushr|NC|13|X}} |
! {{ushr|NC|13|X}} |
||
Line 917: | Line 992: | ||
| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R|Flip}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R|Flip}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R|Flip}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R|Flip}} |
||
| |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
! {{ushr|NC|14|X}} |
! {{ushr|NC|14|X}} |
||
Line 929: | Line 1,005: | ||
| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R|Flip}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R|Flip}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R|Flip}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R|Flip}} |
||
| |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
! {{ushr|OH|1|X}} |
! {{ushr|OH|1|X}} |
||
Line 941: | Line 1,018: | ||
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
||
| |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
! {{ushr|OH|9|X}} |
! {{ushr|OH|9|X}} |
||
Line 953: | Line 1,031: | ||
| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
||
| |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
! {{ushr|OH|13|X}} |
! {{ushr|OH|13|X}} |
||
Line 965: | Line 1,044: | ||
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}} |
||
| |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
! {{ushr|OR|4|X}} |
! {{ushr|OR|4|X}} |
||
Line 977: | Line 1,057: | ||
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
||
| |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
! {{ushr|OR|5|X}} |
! {{ushr|OR|5|X}} |
||
Line 989: | Line 1,070: | ||
| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Tossup}} |
||
| |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
! {{ushr|OR|6|X}} |
! {{ushr|OR|6|X}} |
||
Line 1,001: | Line 1,083: | ||
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
||
| |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
! {{ushr|PA|1|X}} |
! {{ushr|PA|1|X}} |
||
Line 1,013: | Line 1,096: | ||
| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}} |
||
| |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
! {{ushr|PA|7|X}} |
! {{ushr|PA|7|X}} |
||
Line 1,025: | Line 1,109: | ||
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}} |
||
| |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
! {{ushr|PA|8|X}} |
! {{ushr|PA|8|X}} |
||
Line 1,037: | Line 1,122: | ||
| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Tilt|D}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Tilt|D}} |
||
| |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
! {{ushr|PA|10|X}} |
! {{ushr|PA|10|X}} |
||
Line 1,049: | Line 1,135: | ||
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Tilt|R}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Tilt|R}} |
||
| |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
! {{ushr|PA|17|X}} |
! {{ushr|PA|17|X}} |
||
Line 1,061: | Line 1,148: | ||
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
||
| |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
! {{ushr|RI|2|X}} |
! {{ushr|RI|2|X}} |
||
Line 1,073: | Line 1,161: | ||
| {{USRaceRating|Safe|D}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Safe|D}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
||
| |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
! {{ushr|SC|1|X}} |
! {{ushr|SC|1|X}} |
||
Line 1,085: | Line 1,174: | ||
| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}} |
||
| |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
! {{ushr|TN|5|X}} |
! {{ushr|TN|5|X}} |
||
Line 1,097: | Line 1,187: | ||
| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}} |
||
| |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
! {{ushr|TN|7|X}} |
! {{ushr|TN|7|X}} |
||
Line 1,109: | Line 1,200: | ||
| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}} |
||
| |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
! {{ushr|TX|15|X}} |
! {{ushr|TX|15|X}} |
||
Line 1,121: | Line 1,213: | ||
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}} |
||
| |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
! {{ushr|TX|28|X}} |
! {{ushr|TX|28|X}} |
||
Line 1,133: | Line 1,226: | ||
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Lean|D}} |
||
| |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
! {{ushr|TX|34|X}} |
! {{ushr|TX|34|X}} |
||
Line 1,145: | Line 1,239: | ||
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
||
| |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
! {{ushr|VA|1|X}} |
! {{ushr|VA|1|X}} |
||
Line 1,157: | Line 1,252: | ||
| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}} |
||
| |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
! {{ushr|VA|2|X}} |
! {{ushr|VA|2|X}} |
||
Line 1,169: | Line 1,265: | ||
| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R}} |
||
| |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
! {{ushr|VA|5|X}} |
! {{ushr|VA|5|X}} |
||
Line 1,181: | Line 1,278: | ||
| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}} |
||
| |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
! {{ushr|VA|7|X}} |
! {{ushr|VA|7|X}} |
||
Line 1,193: | Line 1,291: | ||
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Tilt|D}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Tilt|D}} |
||
| |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
! {{ushr|VA|10|X}} |
! {{ushr|VA|10|X}} |
||
Line 1,205: | Line 1,304: | ||
| {{USRaceRating|Safe|D}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Safe|D}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
||
| |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
! {{ushr|WA|3|X}} |
! {{ushr|WA|3|X}} |
||
Line 1,217: | Line 1,317: | ||
| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R|flip}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R|flip}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Tilt|D}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Tilt|D}} |
||
| |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
! {{ushr|WA|5|X}} |
! {{ushr|WA|5|X}} |
||
Line 1,229: | Line 1,330: | ||
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}} |
||
| |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
! {{ushr|WA|8|X}} |
! {{ushr|WA|8|X}} |
||
Line 1,241: | Line 1,343: | ||
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|D}} |
||
| |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
! {{ushr|WI|1|X}} |
! {{ushr|WI|1|X}} |
||
Line 1,253: | Line 1,356: | ||
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R}} |
||
| |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
! {{ushr|WI|3|X}} |
! {{ushr|WI|3|X}} |
||
Line 1,265: | Line 1,369: | ||
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Likely|R}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R}} |
||
| |
|||
|- |
|- |
||
! {{ushr|WI|8|X}} |
! {{ushr|WI|8|X}} |
||
Line 1,277: | Line 1,382: | ||
| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Safe|R}} |
||
| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R}} |
| {{USRaceRating|Lean|R}} |
||
| |
|||
|- class=sortbottom |
|- class=sortbottom |
||
! colspan=4 | Overall |
! colspan=4 | Overall |
||
Line 1,286: | Line 1,392: | ||
| {{party shading/Vacant}} | D – 211<br />R – 215<br />9 tossups<br /> |
| {{party shading/Vacant}} | D – 211<br />R – 215<br />9 tossups<br /> |
||
| {{party shading/Vacant}} | D - 215<br />R - 207<br />13 tossups<br /> |
| {{party shading/Vacant}} | D - 215<br />R - 207<br />13 tossups<br /> |
||
| |
|||
|} |
|} |
||
<references /> |
Revision as of 18:40, 1 October 2024
The following are the latest published ratings for competitive seats. (From: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election_ratings)
District | CPVI [1] |
Incumbent | Last result[2] | Cook Sep. 6, 2024[3] |
IE Sep. 26, 2024[4] |
Sabato Sep. 19, 2024[5] |
ED Aug. 26, 2024[6] |
CNalysis Sep. 14, 2024[7] |
DDHQ Sep. 25, 2024[8] |
Race to the WH Sep. 30, 2024[9] |
RCP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alabama 2 | D+4 | New seat | – | Likely D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Solid D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | |
Alaska at-large | R+8 | Mary Peltola | 55.0% D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Tilt D | |
Arizona 1 | R+2 | David Schweikert | 50.4% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Tossup |
Arizona 2 | R+6 | Eli Crane | 53.8% R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | |
Arizona 4 | D+2 | Greg Stanton | 56.1% D | Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | Solid D | Likely D | Safe D | |
Arizona 6 | R+3 | Juan Ciscomani | 50.7% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Likely R | Tossup | Tossup |
California 3 | R+4 | Kevin Kiley | 53.6% R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | Likely R | |
California 9 | D+5 | Josh Harder | 54.8% D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Solid D | Likely D | Lean D | |
California 13 | D+4 | John Duarte | 50.2% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R | Tilt D (flip) | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | |
California 21 | D+9 | Jim Costa | 54.2% D | Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Likely D | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | |
California 22 | D+5 | David Valadao | 51.5% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | |
California 27 | D+4 | Mike Garcia | 53.2% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R | Tilt D (flip) | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | |
California 40 | R+2 | Young Kim | 56.8% R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | Likely R | |
California 41 | R+3 | Ken Calvert | 52.3% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Lean R | Lean R | Tossup | Likely R | Tossup | |
California 45 | D+2 | Michelle Steel | 52.4% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | |
California 47 | D+3 | Katie Porter (retiring) |
51.7% D | Lean D | Tilt D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Likely D | Tilt D | |
California 49 | D+3 | Mike Levin | 52.6% D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Very Likely D | Likely D | Safe D | |
Colorado 3 | R+7 | Open seat[a] | 50.1% R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | Lean R | Lean R | Likely R | Tossup | |
Colorado 5 | R+9 | Doug Lamborn (retiring) |
56.0% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Very Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | |
Colorado 8 | EVEN | Yadira Caraveo | 48.4% D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Tilt D | Likely D | Lean D | |
Connecticut 2 | D+3 | Joe Courtney | 58.2% D | Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Likely D | |
Connecticut 5 | D+3 | Jahana Hayes | 50.5% D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Very Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | |
Florida 7 | R+5 | Cory Mills | 58.5% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | |
Florida 9 | D+8 | Darren Soto | 53.6% D | Likely D | Solid D | Safe D | Likely D | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | |
Florida 13 | R+6 | Anna Paulina Luna | 53.1% R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R | Lean R | Likely R | Likely R | |
Florida 15 | R+4 | Laurel Lee | 58.5% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Very Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | |
Florida 23 | D+5 | Jared Moskowitz | 51.6% D | Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Likely D | Solid D | Likely D | Safe D | |
Florida 27 | EVEN | María Elvira Salazar | 57.3% R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Lean R | |
Florida 28 | R+2 | Carlos A. Giménez | 63.7% R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Lean R | |
Georgia 2 | D+3 | Sanford Bishop | 55.0% D | Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Likely D | Solid D | Likely D | Likely D | |
Illinois 17 | D+2 | Eric Sorensen | 51.9% D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | |
Indiana 1 | D+3 | Frank J. Mrvan | 52.8% D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | |
Iowa 1 | R+3 | Mariannette Miller-Meeks | 53.4% R | Lean R | Tossup | Lean R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | Tossup | |
Iowa 2 | R+4 | Ashley Hinson | 54.1% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Very Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | |
Iowa 3 | R+3 | Zach Nunn | 50.2% R | Lean R | Tossup | Lean R | Tossup | Tossup | Likely R | Tilt R | |
Kansas 2 | R+11 | Jake LaTurner (retiring) |
57.6% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | |
Kansas 3 | R+1 | Sharice Davids | 54.9% D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D | Very Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | |
Louisiana 6 | D+8 | Garret Graves (retiring) |
80.4% R | Solid D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Safe D (flip) | Safe D (flip) | Solid D (flip) | Safe D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | |
Maine 2 | R+6 | Jared Golden | 53.1% D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt D | Lean D | Tossup | |
Maryland 6 | D+2 | David Trone (retiring) |
54.7% D | Likely D | Solid D | Likely D | Safe D | Very Likely D | Likely D | Tilt D | |
Michigan 3 | D+1 | Hillary Scholten | 54.9% D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D | Solid D | Likely D | Likely D | |
Michigan 4 | R+5 | Bill Huizenga | 54.4% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Very Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | |
Michigan 7 | R+2 | Elissa Slotkin (retiring) |
51.7% D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | |
Michigan 8 | R+1 | Dan Kildee (retiring) |
53.1% D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt D | |
Michigan 10 | R+3 | John James | 48.8% R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Tilt R | Lean R | Likely R | |
Minnesota 2 | D+1 | Angie Craig | 50.9% D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Very Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | |
Missouri 2 | R+7 | Ann Wagner | 54.9% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Very Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | |
Montana 1 | R+6 | Ryan Zinke | 49.6% R | Likely R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Likely R | Lean R | |
Nebraska 2 | EVEN | Don Bacon | 51.3% R | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | |
Nevada 1 | D+3 | Dina Titus | 51.6% D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D | |
Nevada 3 | D+1 | Susie Lee | 52.0% D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | |
Nevada 4 | D+3 | Steven Horsford | 52.4% D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | |
New Hampshire 1 | EVEN | Chris Pappas | 54.0% D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Very Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | |
New Hampshire 2 | D+2 | Annie Kuster (retiring) |
55.8% D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Likely D | Very Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | |
New Jersey 2 | R+5 | Jeff Van Drew | 58.9% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Solid R | Likely R | Safe R | |
New Jersey 3 | D+5 | Andy Kim (retiring) |
55.5% D | Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | Solid D | Likely D | Likely D | |
New Jersey 5 | D+4 | Josh Gottheimer | 54.7% D | Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Likely D | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | |
New Jersey 7 | R+1 | Thomas Kean Jr. | 51.3% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Lean R | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R | Tilt R | |
New Jersey 9 | D+8 | Vacant | 54.9% D | Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Likely D | |
New Mexico 1 | D+5 | Melanie Stansbury | 55.7% D | Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Likely D | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | |
New Mexico 2 | D+1 | Gabe Vasquez | 50.3% D | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | |
New York 1 | R+4[b] | Nick LaLota | 55.5% R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R | |
New York 2 | R+4[b] | Andrew Garbarino | 60.7% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | |
New York 3 | D+3[b] | Tom Suozzi | 53.9% D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Very Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | |
New York 4 | D+5[b] | Anthony D'Esposito | 51.8% R | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | |
New York 17 | D+3[b] | Mike Lawler | 50.3% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Lean R | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | |
New York 18 | D+2[b] | Pat Ryan | 50.6% D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | |
New York 19 | R+1[b] | Marc Molinaro | 50.8% R | Tossup | Tilt R | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | Lean R | Tossup | |
New York 22 | D+3[b] | Brandon Williams | 50.5% R | Lean D (flip) | Tilt D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Tilt D (flip) | |
North Carolina 1 | R+1 | Don Davis | 52.4% D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Tilt D | |
North Carolina 6 | R+11 | New seat | – | Solid R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Solid R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | |
North Carolina 8 | R+11 | Dan Bishop (retiring) |
69.9% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | |
North Carolina 10 | R+10 | Patrick McHenry (retiring) |
72.7% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | |
North Carolina 11 | R+8 | Chuck Edwards | 53.8% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | |
North Carolina 13 | R+11 | Wiley Nickel (retiring) |
51.6% D | Solid R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Solid R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | |
North Carolina 14 | R+11 | Jeff Jackson (retiring) |
57.7% D | Solid R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Solid R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | |
Ohio 1 | D+2 | Greg Landsman | 52.8% D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Very Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | |
Ohio 9 | R+3 | Marcy Kaptur | 56.6% D | Lean D | Tilt D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | |
Ohio 13 | R+1 | Emilia Sykes | 52.7% D | Tossup | Tilt D | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | |
Oregon 4 | D+4 | Val Hoyle | 50.5% D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Solid D | Likely D | Likely D | |
Oregon 5 | D+2 | Lori Chavez-DeRemer | 50.9% R | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | |
Oregon 6 | D+4 | Andrea Salinas | 50.0% D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Very Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | |
Pennsylvania 1 | EVEN | Brian Fitzpatrick | 54.9% R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Very Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | |
Pennsylvania 7 | R+2 | Susan Wild | 51.0% D | Tossup | Tilt D | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt D | Likely D | Lean D | |
Pennsylvania 8 | R+4 | Matt Cartwright | 51.2% D | Tossup | Tilt D | Tossup | Tossup | Tilt D | Lean D | Tilt D | |
Pennsylvania 10 | R+5 | Scott Perry | 53.8% R | Lean R | Tilt R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Likely R | Tilt R | |
Pennsylvania 17 | EVEN | Chris Deluzio | 53.4% D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | |
Rhode Island 2 | D+4 | Seth Magaziner | 50.5% D | Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Likely D | |
South Carolina 1 | R+7 | Nancy Mace | 56.4% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Very Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | |
Tennessee 5 | R+9 | Andy Ogles | 55.8% R | Solid R | Solid R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | |
Tennessee 7 | R+10 | Mark Green | 60.0% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | |
Texas 15 | R+1 | Monica De La Cruz | 53.3% R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | |
Texas 28 | D+3 | Henry Cuellar | 56.7% D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Likely D | Very Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | |
Texas 34 | D+9 | Vicente Gonzalez | 52.7% D | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D | Very Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | |
Virginia 1 | R+6 | Rob Wittman | 56.7% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | |
Virginia 2 | R+2 | Jen Kiggans | 51.6% R | Lean R | Tilt R | Lean R | Tossup | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | |
Virginia 5 | R+7 | Bob Good (lost renomination) |
57.7% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | |
Virginia 7 | D+1 | Abigail Spanberger (retiring) |
52.2% D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Tilt D | |
Virginia 10 | D+6 | Jennifer Wexton (retiring) |
53.3% D | Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Likely D | |
Washington 3 | R+5 | Marie Gluesenkamp Perez | 50.1% D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Tilt D | |
Washington 5 | R+8 | Cathy McMorris Rodgers (retiring) |
59.7% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Solid R | Likely R | Likely R | |
Washington 8 | D+1 | Kim Schrier | 53.3% D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Likely D | Very Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | |
Wisconsin 1 | R+3 | Bryan Steil | 54.1% R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R | |
Wisconsin 3 | R+4 | Derrick Van Orden | 51.8% R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R | |
Wisconsin 8 | R+10 | Vacant | 73.5% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Lean R | |
Overall | D – 203 R – 208 24 tossups |
D – 206 R – 216 13 tossups |
D – 205 R – 211 19 tossups |
D – 207 R – 210 18 tossups |
D – 216 R – 208 11 tossups |
D – 211 R – 215 9 tossups |
D - 215 R - 207 13 tossups |
- ^ "2022 Cook PVI: District Map and List". Cook Political Report. Retrieved August 7, 2022.
- ^ "House of Representatives Results: GOP wins the majority". CNN. Retrieved February 2, 2023.
- ^ "2024 House Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 6, 2024.
- ^ "2024 House Ratings". Inside Elections. September 26, 2024.
- ^ "2024 House". Sabato's Crystal Ball. September 19, 2024.
- ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. Retrieved 2024-08-29.
- ^ "'24 House Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved 2023-11-19.
- ^ "2024 House Forecast | The Hill and DDHQ". The Hill. Retrieved 2024-09-26.
- ^ https://www.racetothewh.com/house
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