Talk:Hurricane Gustav

Hurricane Gustav

Is now forecasted to be a Category 3 in the Gulf. —Preceding usigned comment added by 72.184.33.67 (talk) 09:53, 26 August 2008 (UTC)

That's 96 hours away, and this upcoming interaction with Haiti could change things considerably. Plasticup ^T/C 11:40, 26 August 2008 (UTC)

Records and naming

This unsourced "record" was in the "Storm history" section.

Gustav also went from a Tropical Depression to a Hurricane in 15 hours, beating Hurricane Humberto's record of 18 hours.

Plasticup ^T/C 11:48, 26 August 2008 (UTC)

I have to agree..... Itfc+canes=me (talk) 11:53, 26 August 2008 (UTC)

An IP just added a similar "record", so I am putting them both into a "Records and naming" section. Hopefully we can cite them. Plasticup ^T/C 12:52, 26 August 2008 (UTC)

I think Lorenzo took 12 hours as per NHC from TD to C1. --Elena85 | Talk to Me | 1000 edits!!!' 13:04, 26 August 2008 (UTC)

Lorenzo's TCR says 50 hours. The best track is on page 4. Plasticup ^T/C 13:12, 26 August 2008 (UTC)

Humberto has the fastest from it's first advisory to Cat:1, Lorenzo has fastest from TD to Cat:1. Also, looking at the [running best track], It seems Gustav took about 24 hours to go from TD to Cat:1. We'll have to wait for the official confirmation when the TCR for Gustav is released to be sure. Cyclonebiskit (talk) 13:42, 26 August 2008 (UTC)

It was probably a tropical storm at the time of first advisory and may have been as early as 0600Z yesterday. It probably will go down as a hurricane starting at the 0000Z point yesterday in the TCR based on satellite appearance. That would be 18 hours. CrazyC83 (talk) 14:51, 26 August 2008 (UTC)

Probably, but until the TCR comes out we have a secondary source that says otherwise. Plasticup ^T/C 14:58, 26 August 2008 (UTC)

Cuba preps

Cuba usually evacuates 300,000+ people (yay for big communist governments!) so keep an eye out for sources to that effect. Plasticup ^T/C 16:01, 26 August 2008 (UTC)

I assume they will be some US preps within the next couple days, as well. –Juliancolton ^{Tropical Cyclone} 16:04, 26 August 2008 (UTC)

Some of the models are predicting a Cat 4 in New Orleans. We all remember how that worked out. Plasticup ^T/C 17:46, 26 August 2008 (UTC)

Yeah. This is looking like a deja vu. –Juliancolton ^{Tropical Cyclone} 18:01, 26 August 2008 (UTC)

GFDL is still predicting a Cat 4 off Louisiana, and in the last few runs the HWRF has started to agree. NGP too. Plasticup ^T/C 13:11, 27 August 2008 (UTC)

In Cuba's eastern provinces, authorities Tuesday moved trucks and buses into place, preparing to repeat the mass evacuations of people and livestock carried out for Fay. They readied to shut down tourist facilities and campsites and began setting up temporary shelters and food distribution centers at hotels and schools source. These are preparations that Cuba is getting ready to carry out. Preparations for the preparations. I say we wait 12 hours and just write about the actual preps. Plasticup ^T/C 13:11, 27 August 2008 (UTC)

Forecast

Does anybody think that the recently added 'forecast' paragraph should be created into a new section? It just seems that it doesn't belong in the lead section, that's all. Chris1193 (talk) 16:06, 26 August 2008 (UTC)

I don't think that it should be included at all, but if it is to go anywhere it should be in the "Current storm information" section. Plasticup ^T/C 16:07, 26 August 2008 (UTC)

I've put it in there for now, but lets see if anyone else thinks the same first before we delete it. Chris1193 (talk) 16:17, 26 August 2008 (UTC)

Fair enough, its already been deleted! Chris1193 (talk) 16:34, 26 August 2008 (UTC)

Juliancolton moved it into the "Storm history" Plasticup ^T/C 16:36, 26 August 2008 (UTC)

I still can't read properly!!! Chris1193 (talk) 16:39, 26 August 2008 (UTC)

I've added sourced information about the forecasted path (there was already some, but not with a cited source). I don't think the heading of the section it's in is consistent with what the paragraph is about, but I'm going to leave it to editors with more experience with the standards for articles on hurricanes to decide where it goes. -- John Broughton (♫♫) 19:30, 26 August 2008 (UTC)

27-Aug-2008: I have re-added the short "Forecast" paragraph, which is a text description of the nearby tracking map: hence, it is the textual equivalent of the graphic (information on maps can also be described in words). A textual description of a map should not be interpreted as a shocking new concept that "their little minds" cannot comprehend. Because it is tied to the map, the text is physically formatted nearby the map; hence, it is similar to an image caption, without being inserted into the storm infobox and changing the layout of that infobox. I have made over 357,000 edits to Wikipedia articles, and I noticed that many people have tried to severely limit the information in Wikipedia articles: but trust me, the readers are quite intelligent, and will not be totally unable to comprehend what "Forecast" means at that point in the article. Note that the text is a factual statement of a forecast issued on the stated date, not an original-research projection, nor a historical statement of the actual storm path. Sorry if the concept has upset some people. -Wikid77 (talk) 19:07, 27 August 2008 (UTC)

That's all well and good, but the forecast has no place in the lead. I am moving it, per the consensus of dozens of WP:WPTC editors. Plasticup ^T/C 19:15, 27 August 2008 (UTC)

Fuel Price Concerns

Pundits on all of the News outlets claim that this thing will cause gasoline prices to jump dramatically. 205.240.146.148 (talk) 23:28, 26 August 2008 (UTC)

We already have a few sentences about oil prices. Plasticup ^T/C 00:46, 27 August 2008 (UTC)

any injuries or deaths in Haiti?

Hi. If none have been reported, please cite this and add the info. If some have been reported, cite and add this info. It might be too early to tell, howerver. ~AH1^(TCU) 01:08, 27 August 2008 (UTC)

How are we going to write and source what we don't have? –Juliancolton ^{Tropical Cyclone} 13:05, 27 August 2008 (UTC)

11 now confirmed dead in Jamaica http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5j9mIwe2Y3ICaOEGLYO4H_WuZl0gw

Derek Ortt (talk) 16:04, 29 August 2008 (UTC)

US preps

Here's a few links that I can't add, as my laptop is running out of battery, but somebody else can:

• http://www.nola.com/news/index.ssf/2008/08/louisiana_gears_up_for_gustav.html
• http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/americas/08/26/hurricane.gustav/index.html
• http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2008/08/gustav_has_state_on_alert.html

Several of the sources hint at the similarity between Gustav's forecast track with the track followed by a particularly notorious hurricane, as well as the proximity of Katrina's 3-year anniversary. We probably have to include that somehow in the article. Titoxd^{(?!? - cool stuff)} 07:59, 27 August 2008 (UTC)

Didn't Katrina come from the other side of Florida? From the Atlanic, not the Caribbean Sea. Plasticup ^T/C 11:36, 27 August 2008 (UTC)

True, the two storms are coming from different directions of origin, but once Gustav get's into the Gulf, it should start to look very similar. –Juliancolton ^{Tropical Cyclone} 14:01, 27 August 2008 (UTC)

I have added those sources. Lots of good info there. Plasticup ^T/C 11:55, 27 August 2008 (UTC)

New Orleans isn't ready. At all. 3 years and we aren't ready. No matter what they say. If it comes up the mouth of the Mississippi. No More New Orleans. Sure they'll repair the French Quarter and Downtown. And save a small area of residence for workers and what not, but that is the end of a that city. Maybe Gustav will turn. —Preceding unsigned comment added by Superchick08 (talk • contribs) 18:48, 27 August 2008 (UTC)

Information like that would be very useful to this article. Do you know of any reliable sources that say this? --Elliskev 18:56, 27 August 2008 (UTC)

Actually, that's a matter of opinion, and doesn't really belong in the article. –Juliancolton ^{Tropical Cyclone} 19:02, 27 August 2008 (UTC)

On every internet article that I have read the first 10 feedback posts are residents of the gulf coast bemoaning their states' lack of preparedness. With so many anecdotes there may well be reliable secondary sources backing it up. Plasticup ^T/C 19:03, 27 August 2008 (UTC)

For instance, the Virgo New Moon cycle, indicates strong potential that Gustav will affect Louisiana, New Orleans, and southwestern Mississippi. :-P Plasticup ^T/C 19:06, 27 August 2008 (UTC)

To Juliancolton: Of course it's a matter of opinion. There are no absolutes regarding what is appropriate content for any article, only guidelines and consensus. My opinion is that the states of preparedness for areas which may be possibly impacted, as reported by reliable sources, is relevant and useful. This talk page is for discussing these things. --Elliskev 19:18, 27 August 2008 (UTC)

Gulf ports unprepared source Plasticup ^T/C 14:17, 28 August 2008 (UTC)

Contraflow source Titoxd^{(?!? - cool stuff)} 23:11, 29 August 2008 (UTC)

Inmate evacuations Titoxd^{(?!? - cool stuff)} 23:56, 29 August 2008 (UTC)

Loop Current

Time to mention the Loop Current again. Simesa (talk) 23:49, 27 August 2008 (UTC)

And the eddy off the coast of Louisiana, as well... Titoxd^{(?!? - cool stuff)} 23:52, 27 August 2008 (UTC)

Data Buoy 42003 shows the water temperature at only 89-degrees-F recently. If it's still anywhere close to the Loop Current now, that's very good news. Simesa (talk) 23:54, 27 August 2008 (UTC)

Quickly skimming all the significant data buoys of the National Data Buoy Center, it looks like the whole Gulf of Mexico and Cayman Islands vicinities (south of Cuba) are well below 90-degrees-F, the water temperature that seems to be some kind of threshold for hurricane formation. Simesa (talk) 00:28, 28 August 2008 (UTC)

Note: The data buoys near Florida have taken a beating, and several are not currently operational (such as 42014, 42080, 42408...). I'm not sure how warm the deep water in the Keys is. Simesa (talk) 00:29, 28 August 2008 (UTC)

Generally, water has to be warmer than 26˚C (79 ˚F) to be conducive to tropical cyclogenesis. The water is unfortunately still warm enough. Titoxd^{(?!? - cool stuff)} 02:13, 28 August 2008 (UTC)

I don't even see a Loop Current in Map. Simesa (talk) 00:49, 28 August 2008 (UTC)

I do. Plasticup ^T/C 00:58, 28 August 2008 (UTC)

Note: some of the Upper Level winds "boys" are down.... they are on land... so we a limited clue about what shear is impacting Gustav Itfc+canes=me (talk) 12:20, 28 August 2008 (UTC)

Hurricane Katrina Jr.?

Look at where the forecasters say the hurricane is heading - Louisiana. If it pwns N'awlins like Katrina did, it could waltz its way into the presidential campaign. 68.37.146.82 (talk) 03:27, 28 August 2008 (UTC)

As the NHC has pointed out in every single forecast, it is far too early for that kind of speculation. Plasticup ^T/C 03:36, 28 August 2008 (UTC)

Ditto that. Even if Gustav were to make landfall in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana as Katrina did, keep in mind that it's only a tropical storm now. If it doesn't also strengthen in the Gulf basin as Katrina did, Gustav is not likely to make a major impact on Louisiana (let alone the US Presidential campaign). Remember Hurricane Cindy? Or any of the other Category 1 storms that have made landfall in Plaquemines over the years? Probably not, I'm guessing. Even Hurricane Georges, which was a rather severe hurricane (peaking at Category 4) that took a track similar to the one predicted for Gustav, left New Orleans and Louisiana relatively unscathed. -- JeffBillman (talk) 04:18, 28 August 2008 (UTC)

Yeah,it might not strengthen in the Gulf, if the Gulf suddenly became several degrees cooler through a Biblical miracle. Forecastes say the storm will strengthen when it hits the warm water of the Gulf. Are there any who disagree? Edison2 (talk) 12:45, 28 August 2008 (UTC)

There are plenty, yes. It could clip the Yucatan or the mountains of eastern Cuba and move into the gulf without a low-level circulation. Or it could encounter tremendous sheer in the gulf and weaken significantly. Or conditions could be perfect and it could make landfall as a Cat 4. It is too early. Plasticup ^T/C 12:53, 28 August 2008 (UTC)

Add to that a number of other possibilities: Gustav could veer eastward, striking Florida and missing Louisiana altogether. (See Hurricane Charley.) It could make landfall well to the west of New Orleans, and dissipate quickly as Hurricane Rita did. At the moment, this second possibility even seems somewhat likely given the five day track issued at 7 AM EDT this morning (28 August), which has Gustav missing the Plaquemines danger zone for NOLA. I see too many people panicking whenever a hurricane comes anywhere near Louisiana. This is odd, considering how few people gave Katrina any mind before it tracked to the north, and how rarely a storm actually does affect New Orleans. -- JeffBillman (talk) 14:20, 28 August 2008 (UTC)

And at this point, the GFS and NAM still project the storm wandering into the Gulf a weak tropical storm after clipping the Yucatan. –Juliancolton ^{Tropical Cyclone} 14:35, 28 August 2008 (UTC)

It looks like many of the computer models at wunderground.com have it going more towards the west of Louisiana now, almost into Texas. Still a bit early to forecast anything. We'll probably know more tomorrow. Dr. Cash (talk) 15:26, 28 August 2008 (UTC)

Camille took an eerily similar path to Katrina as well, as a stronger storm (Category 5, maybe weakening to a strong 4 at final landfall) and didn't do severe damage to New Orleans. Of course Camille was a much smaller storm... CrazyC83 (talk) 20:00, 28 August 2008 (UTC)

I think it's awfully early to be counting anybody out, as far as a landfall, right now. With where it looks like it will enter the Gulf, literally anything could happen... from the mid-Texas coast all the way to Apalachicola, FL. --Winger84 (talk) 20:58, 28 August 2008 (UTC)

Remember that the precise track is not exact, as a tropical cyclone can make landfall anywhere inside or near the track forecast cone. Titoxd^{(?!? - cool stuff)} 23:05, 29 August 2008 (UTC)

Talk pages are for discussion of the article, banter about hurricanes belongs on the Hurricanes Wikia instead, as the top of the season talk page states. - JVG (talk) 01:20, 30 August 2008 (UTC)

Upgraded infobox with image sizes or captions

28-Aug-2008: I have just now, today, upgraded and extensively tested the hurricane-current infobox to use "class=infobox" and provide new parameters: image_width, track_width, image_caption, track_caption, for setting image widths/captions as in other more modern infoboxes. See more details at the infobox talk-page, under:

• "Template_talk:Infobox_hurricane_current#Modernized infobox with image sizes or captions".

I also fixed some bugs from the original coding, obscured because there had been no programming comments in the template to explain the coding to other people. The parameter "1sustained" now will show the value (when used).

I will expand later, but my IE browser just crashed (again) losing all the details I had written here (the crash also erased the clipboard copy of that text). I will save this portion, in case IE crashes again. -Wikid77 (talk) 14:49, 28 August 2008 (UTC)

• OK, I saved the above message without IE crashing again. You might wonder why the hurricane-current infobox was outdated, considering the notability of hurricanes: well, there are only a relative handful of people focusing on the major notable articles in Wikipedia. Those skeleton crews of people also upgrade old templates, but the MediaWiki parser language (for templates) is a convoluted grouping of 3 language types (positional, keyword, and boxifying indented text), so template bugs and outdated coding are difficult to fix (even for typical Java or HTML software developers) without breaking the fragile, error-prone template coding. Somewhat like draft articles, the MediaWiki software has been in a neophyte, draft-like state of early technology, which generated many problems when trying to use/modify the templates. Please note: templates didn't even allow parameters when first implemented! ...that's how elementary the MediaWiki software has been. ... ... Progress depends on individual people, who focus on major notable articles & their infoboxes, to overcome all the problems in every direction. If you have ideas to improve current-hurricane coverage, please let people know. Only by everyone working, together, can the past problems from years ago be overcome. Thanks. -Wikid77 (talk) 15:09, 28 August 2008 (UTC)

Caveat

Should we now add one of those banner boxes warning people not to get their primary information from Wikipedia? Simesa (talk) 22:44, 28 August 2008 (UTC)

I'm not sure if there's a precedent for doing so in cases like this, but judging from Wikipedia:No disclaimers in articles, I would think a disclaimer shouldn't be used here. Pyrospirit (talk · contribs) 22:57, 28 August 2008 (UTC)

That was deleted for the reason mentioned by Pyrospirit. -CWY2190(talk • contributions) 23:31, 28 August 2008 (UTC)

Thanks, I'm sure I've seen such in the distant past but not recently. Simesa (talk) 23:39, 28 August 2008 (UTC)

NHC rounding versus convert

29-Aug-2008: I was able to get the Template:Convert auto-conversion of kilometers into miles to match the distance-rounding used by the NHC 2-digit figures (nearest +5 miles):

• {{convert|95|km|mi|sigfig=1|abbr=on}} west of Kingston.

So, Template:Convert gives "60 miles" as the rounded conversion of 95 km (to 1 significant figure). However, when using a 3-digit distance (sigfig=2), the Template:Convert amount did not match the NHC rounding:

• {{convert|415|km|mi|sigfig=2|abbr=on}}

Here, Template:Convert gives "260 miles" as the 5-mile rounded conversion of 415 km into 257.7 miles, which was incorrectly rounded as "255" in the NHC advisory 17A data for Gustav.

Note that Wikipedia's Template:Convert gives a correct rounding for 5-mile rounding, while the NHC figure is off by 5 miles. I would consider the km amount to be the primary/leading measurement, and then convert to rounded miles correctly, regardless of any NHC rounding problems. Therefore, retain the Template:Convert mileage results as an accurate reporting, based on km distance as the primary unit.

If NHC begins favoring "miles" as the primary unit, perhaps near the USA, then the conversion can be reversed with "km" as secondary, not necessarily matching the NHC km figures, as long as the mileage numbers match the NHC advisory data. -Wikid77 (talk) 07:45, 29 August 2008 (UTC)

My solution is even simpler: I don't use {{Convert}}. All the mph and km/h figures are being rounded from knots anyway, so there is no way that you can get the right answer by converting miles to km or visa versa. Plasticup ^T/C 12:10, 29 August 2008 (UTC)

• I understand your opinion, but the issue is not about a "right answer" but, rather, that Template:Convert generates an accurate conversion, regardless of whether the NHC data shows internal inconsistency errors. The converted units from Template:Convert are "close enough" to be acceptable. Also, when an NHC advisory fails to show converted units, then Template:Convert already provides the converted amounts. -Wikid77 (talk) 13:40, 29 August 2008 (UTC)

Yes, simply do not use {{convert}}, as the "accurate" measurement is whatever the source (in this case the NHC) says. Titoxd^{(?!? - cool stuff)} 12:12, 29 August 2008 (UTC)

• I understand the opinion to parrot the source; however, Wikipedia relies on multiple sources: not just accepting NHC data as an authority, but also running a sanity check on numbers and contrasting with other sources. It is dangerous to use "quoting authority" as the sole reference for information. In this case, Template:Convert provides a simple sanity check to question the NHC data, and then provides converted units which are accurate for use (but not always the exact NHC figures). If NHC data is suspect, then prior NHC advisories can be compared, perhaps showing the change in "km" distance is logical, whereas the distance in "miles" might be a typographical error. Those are also key reasons to use Template:Convert. -Wikid77 (talk) 13:40, 29 August 2008 (UTC)

I think you'd be hard-pressed to find a more authoritative source on tropical systems than the National Hurricane Center... --Winger84 (talk) 15:28, 29 August 2008 (UTC)

The error here is that you're rounding previously rounded numbers and calling it "correct". Both reported numbers are already rounded to the nearest multiple of 5. By applying rounding to a rounded value, you introduce error that did not previously exist.

Yes, 260 miles is a more accurate conversion of 415 km than 255 miles, but that does not mean that 260 miles is the more accurate measurement of the distance. Nobody said which way the 415 km was rounded. For all we know it was measured as 413 km and rounded up, making 255 miles more accurate than 260 miles.

The only way to know the correct answer is to make the pre-rounding measurements for the official reports. The only people who are able to do that are working at the NHC. -- Cyrius|✎ 20:10, 29 August 2008 (UTC)

Emergency Radios and Flashlights

You guys in the affected areas will need to get to both Wal*Mart and Radio Shack to get both the Self Powered Radios and the Self Powered Flashlights. I and family have at least five of these. Batteries will be unavailable, and for those that have them, will "run down". You'll have to get these right now. 205.240.146.148 (talk) 02:04, 30 August 2008 (UTC)

The reason I have stated this is that you would have light, and information while others have nothing but darkness at night and lack of information. Do NOT use candles either, use light sticks, which are a LOT safer, will not set off damaged gas mains, explosive, flammable gas. 205.240.146.148 (talk) 02:20, 30 August 2008 (UTC)

Speculative discussion of possible political impacts

Very peripheral to the issue here. After all, we gave the very-real impact on oil prices one short sentence. When something solid happens, like the President rescheduling his speech to fly to Louisiana that would be noteworthy. Simesa (talk) 02:58, 30 August 2008 (UTC)

New report that Republican Convention may be postponed, so left section in after rewriting and trimming. Simesa (talk) 04:13, 30 August 2008 (UTC)

Retirement

You think this name will be retired I know wikipedia is not a crystal ball but do you think it is. —Preceding unsigned comment added by The luigi kart assasions (talk • contribs) 03:46, 30 August 2008 (UTC)

Semi-Protect?

The edits are starting to get out of hand. Is it now appropriate to semi-protect the article but not Discussion? Simesa (talk) 04:18, 30 August 2008 (UTC)

Nit picking

Re: ^ Barrow, Bill (2008-08-27). "Gov. Bobby Jindal declares pre-storm state of emergency (and Lake Charles' dominance)", New Orleans Times-Picayune. Retrieved on 2008-08-27.

This article doesn't have anything about Lake Charles in it, nor is Lake Charles in the title as this implies. Was it so when it was retrieved? 207.191.23.51 (talk) 04:16, 30 August 2008 (UTC)