User talk:Undermedia: Difference between revisions

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Welcome

Welcome!

Hello, Undermedia, and welcome to Wikipedia! Thank you for your contributions. I hope you like Wikipedia and decide to stay. Here are some pages that you might find helpful:

I hope you enjoy editing here and being a Wikipedian! Please sign your name on talk pages using four tildes (~~~~); this will automatically produce your name and the date. If you need help, check out Wikipedia:Questions, ask me on my talk page, or place {{helpme}} on your talk page and ask your question there. Again, welcome! - Ahunt (talk) 16:48, 25 September 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Barnstar

		The Barnstar of Diligence
		For exceptional diligence in tracking down polling results and their references for 42nd Canadian federal election. Great work! - Ahunt (talk) 21:33, 2 May 2012 (UTC)[reply]

Another Barnstar

		The Tireless Contributor Barnstar
		For diligent work in adding mountains of data on sample size and polling methods on Opinion polling in the 42nd Canadian federal election Ahunt (talk) 15:36, 2 August 2013 (UTC)[reply]

Barnstar

Thank you for the Barnstar! Glad my participation on the election articles is helpful. - Ahunt (talk) 18:36, 2 August 2013 (UTC)[reply]

Poll in Ontario

Hello, is this poll official enough to be listed in the poll section of the 41st Ontario general election article? I'm asking because you seem to know a lot about the opinion polls, and I haven't seen Ipolitics in the polling firms yet, so I am not sure if it is a reliable source. Merci beaucoup!
Votre pseudonyme ici (talk) 21:10, 9 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Yup, that's an EKOS poll, and I see it's now been posted on the EKOS website. They most often do polls for iPolitics but also occasionally for other news outlets. Thanks for the heads-up! Undermedia (talk) 23:46, 9 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

All right perfect, no problem and thanks for adding it.
Votre pseudonyme ici (talk) 00:53, 10 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Libertarians? - Ontario election

I have started a discussion about the Libertarians in the candidate section of the Ontario election article, I thought you might want to join in. Me-123567-Me (talk) 04:40, 11 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Ontario general election, 2014 – Ipsos poll numbers

I undid your edit as the numbers you entered don't match the poll. I changed it back here to match the Ipsos figures as reported in the Press Release and the Detailed Tables. Also note that I removed the 2% figure listed for Green as they weren't even included in that poll, with Ipsos only showing Some others (including Green) polling at a combined 4%.

I note that in your edit comment you said “I've justified this presentation 3 times over and am yet to hear a single actual counterargument.”; but I looked and couldn't find any comments anywhere to justify the figures you came up with. Perhaps you can make your "presentation" once more, below; and, if I agree with you, I'll happily revert my undo of your edit myself.

Cheers — Who R you? Talk 02:06, 12 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

I had attempted to explain it in the edit summary field, but with limited space it perhaps wasn't so obvious or clear. Basically, given the difficulties Canadian pollsters have experienced in accurately calling a few recent elections with historically low voter turnouts, several of them have started reporting a second set of results among "likely voters" in addition to their regular results among all eligible decided voters. Incidentally, this has been standard practice among U.S. pollsters for many years. Canadian pollsters who have adopted this approach now include EKOS, Abacus Data, Ipsos Reid and Angus Reid. Thus, it has become the convention to show these "likely voters" results, when available, on Wiki election pages, including the recent BC (EKOS polls), NS (Abacus Data polls) and QC (EKOS, Ipsos Reid and Angus Reid polls) elections. In all cases, the "likely voters" results have proven to come closer to the actual election results than their corresponding "all voters" results, so it appears to be a sound practice. It is also worth noting that the renowned U.S. poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight bases its election projections on "likely voters" polling results, as well as Canadian spinoff ThreeHundredEight. For the Ipsos poll in question, the "likely voters" results I've been entering are given lower down in the linked-to text, under the heading "PC Voters Most Likely to Show Up to Vote". They are also given under the same heading in the PDF press release, as well as in the detailed tables under the column "COMMITTED". As for the Green results, that's a bit of a toss-up IMO, but technically you're correct, so I don't mind if we leave them out. -Undermedia (talk) 16:29, 12 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Conversation continued on article's Talk page. ~~Meanwhile, I have to give you the warning below (but I'm not escalating it to the Administrator's noticeboard at this point)~~ — Just following protocol that says I should warn you 1^st… — Who R you? Talk 05:12, 14 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Hi Undermedia
I've reverted yet another of your changes in Ontario 2014 (discussion), that makes 2 or 3 I think; but I hope there's no hard feelings. I know from personal experience that being reverted sometimes stings a little. Just wanted to mention that I respect the obvious work & effort you've put in, there & elsewhere, particularly pertaining to Canadian elections. Hope you'll keep up the good work & that our minor differences of opinion on a few issues are viewed as just that, with both of us working towards a better WP. Cheers — Who R you? Talk 20:58, 22 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Nah, there's never any hard feelings. I think I started taking for granted that I had assumed the de facto lead in updating and maintaining opinion polling sections on a bunch of Canadian election articles, so I'd gotten a little dictatorial about consistency in presentation and wasn't used to being challenged. But of course that's all part of the normal game on WP. Cheers. -Undermedia (talk) 21:13, 22 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Incorrect numbers in graphic

Not sure if you saw it, so I direct your attention to the comment I left here. Esn (talk) 06:37, 17 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Thanks. The graph's been frozen since we started debating on the Ontario election Talk page whether to show "all voters" or "likely voters" results in the polling section. Right now it's showing the latter for the Ipsos poll, but I'll likely change it shortly if we don't reach a new consensus soon. You're also most welcome to join in on that discussion if you wish. -Undermedia (talk) 12:05, 17 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Another Barnstar

		The Canada Barnstar of National Merit
		As a Wikipedian and a Canadian voter, I thank you for your tireless and invaluable service. Shawn in Montreal (talk) 16:01, 21 August 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Latest Leger poll

Hi. Thanks again for your great work on the federal polling article. I believe we're still missing the latest Leger, which did include a federal component. See sidebar at right. Shawn in Montreal (talk) 13:50, 15 December 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Good work spotting that Léger poll! I've added it. -Undermedia (talk) 13:59, 15 December 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Hi Undermedia. Thank you for the tireless work you have put in updating Canadian polling. Another poll came out Feb 2 from Legar that is not yet included — Preceding unsigned comment added by Mikemikem (talk • contribs) 19:35, 6 February 2015 (UTC)[reply]

42nd Canadian Federal Election Polling Graph

Hey there, I was wondering how to do a graph like yours as seen in the 42nd Canadian Federal Election Page.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/42nd_Canadian_federal_election#mediaviewer/File:Canada_polling_since_2011_election.png

I don't exactly know how to do separate polling data and the line data itself.

Cheers if you can help, DestinationAlan (talk) 06:40, 26 February 2015 (UTC)[reply]

So I'm guessing you got as far as creating a table in Excel with a column for each party and row for each poll, identified by date, and then creating a "marked scatter" plot from those data? What you need to do next is add a trendline for each party, i.e. each data series. Not sure how this is done in Windows if you happen to have, but on Mac you can right-click on any individual data point from each of the parties and choose "Add trendline...". Then among the various trendline options, you can select "Moving average" and set the number of data points used to calculate the average. Hope this helps; let me know if you require more tips! -Undermedia (talk) 13:52, 26 February 2015 (UTC)[reply]

Ah yes, I was playing around with that and got the moving average and trendline in. Though, how do you make a scatterplot with an x-axis that lists the dates? I keep on getting numbers on the x-axis. DestinationAlan (talk) 05:29, 27 February 2015 (UTC)[reply]

Hi Alan. Make sure your column of cells containing the dates are specifically formatted as date cells: select all the cells containing the dates and right-click, choose "Format Cells...", and in the "Number" tab under "Category", select "Date", then select one of the various date formats available and make sure all your dates are consistently typed out in this format. You may also have to specifically set your graph's horizontal axis to display dates: right-click on the axis and choose "Format Axis...", and in the "Scale" section under "Horizontal axis type", select "Date"; you'll then be able to set various options for minimum, maximum, base unit, interval, etc. Again, these instructions are for the Mac version of Excel and may differ on Windows. Cheers. -Undermedia (talk) 13:43, 27 February 2015 (UTC)[reply]

It's very similar on windows but Australian Polling tend to have different dates like "20-24 February 2015" or "September 2015" or "Sep-Oct 2011". How do I cater that to a general category? Also, I formatted the x-axis to do dates but it says 1901. How do I edit that? DestinationAlan (talk) 22:43, 27 February 2015 (UTC)[reply]

I forgot to mention that in addition to setting the axis to "Date" in the "Scale" section of the "Format Axis" window, you should also go to the "Number" section and set that to "Date" as well; then just as your data table cells, you can select a format to display the dates in along the axis. For example, in my case the dates in my data table are typed in the "dd-mmm-yy" format, while the graph axis is set to display just "mmm-yy", with the major unit set to 1 month. I'm afraid that's about all the advice I've got. As for recording the dates in a consistent manner, I guess you'll just have to figure out something that works. Unless Australian pollsters simply aren't as scrupulous when it comes to disclosing their methodology, the exact field dates of a survey can usually be found somewhere in the detailed report on the poll or the news article reporting on it; that is the case for every single poll listed on the Canadian election polling page. -Undermedia (talk) 15:30, 28 February 2015 (UTC)[reply]

Apologies for not replying, been really busy! I haven't been able to look at my graphs in awhile. I was about to ask you, is it okay if you were able to send the spreadsheet file somehow? Also, how do you do things "month by montH' so for example, you got polling data for Jan-15, then Feb-15, then Mar-15 etc etc DestinationAlan (talk) 02:01, 25 March 2015 (UTC)[reply]

42nd Canadian Federal Election Polling

Yeesh. Hard to keep up with the subtly destructive changes to this chart. If you need a hand, let me know! Pinkville (talk) 00:30, 11 April 2015 (UTC)[reply]

Polls

Hey! First off thanks for all the time and hard work you invest in maintaining the Canada opinion polls page. I feel as though maybe when a pollster releases a report using likely voters we should use that. That way whenever somebody clicks a link to a pdf they see the wiki numbers match the top line numbers of the press release. Pollsters work hard to be as accurate as possible and Angus was the most accurate in 2011 election according to 308.com I feel we should respect their methods and use their top line numbers they release Mikemikem (talk) 16:03, 4 July 2015 (UTC)[reply]

Yeah, I think I'm also leaning towards simply going with any given poll's top-line results; obviously seems most intuitive. The eligible/likely inconsistency is a bit bothersome though. In the last Ontario election we actually created two separate tables and then ironically, likely voter results from the pollsters who released them all turned out to be farther from the actual election results that their respective plain eligible voter results. Maybe we could simply identify "EV" vs. "LV" results in the current table by putting in a footnote or something. I'll start a discussion soon. Cheers, Undermedia (talk) 16:28, 4 July 2015 (UTC)[reply]

ArbCom elections are now open!

Hi,
You appear to be eligible to vote in the current Arbitration Committee election. The Arbitration Committee is the panel of editors responsible for conducting the Wikipedia arbitration process. It has the authority to enact binding solutions for disputes between editors, primarily related to serious behavioural issues that the community has been unable to resolve. This includes the ability to impose site bans, topic bans, editing restrictions, and other measures needed to maintain our editing environment. The arbitration policy describes the Committee's roles and responsibilities in greater detail. If you wish to participate, you are welcome to review the candidates' statements and submit your choices on the voting page. For the Election committee, MediaWiki message delivery (talk) 16:52, 24 November 2015 (UTC)[reply]

ArbCom Elections 2016: Voting now open!

Hello, Undermedia. Voting in the 2016 Arbitration Committee elections is open from Monday, 00:00, 21 November through Sunday, 23:59, 4 December to all unblocked users who have registered an account before Wednesday, 00:00, 28 October 2016 and have made at least 150 mainspace edits before Sunday, 00:00, 1 November 2016.

The Arbitration Committee is the panel of editors responsible for conducting the Wikipedia arbitration process. It has the authority to impose binding solutions to disputes between editors, primarily for serious conduct disputes the community has been unable to resolve. This includes the authority to impose site bans, topic bans, editing restrictions, and other measures needed to maintain our editing environment. The arbitration policy describes the Committee's roles and responsibilities in greater detail.

If you wish to participate in the 2016 election, please review the candidates' statements and submit your choices on the voting page. MediaWiki message delivery (talk) 22:08, 21 November 2016 (UTC)[reply]

Opinion polling in the 43rd Canadian federal election

I agree that the major events lines may be too arbitrary, but I have seen it implemented elsewhere on Wikipedia. Can we perhaps reserve it for major-major events, like, for example, Mulcair's loss of the Leadership Review, and Trudeau's decision to abandon his electoral reform pledge? Kiteinthewind ^{Leave a message!} 05:09, 4 April 2017 (UTC)[reply]

I suggest you start a topic on the Talk section of the opinion polling page to at least properly discuss this and try to reach a consensus with the other editors before overhauling the polling tables. The other issue is that we may at some point swap the graph for a more sophisticated one based on local regressions that factor in varying poll sample sizes (like this one), which automatically reads the data directly from the table using some R code, and breaking the table up by year is likely to prevent it from working, or at the very least significantly complicate the coding. So I'm going to reverse those changes as well, and again suggest that you work towards a consensus in the Talk section if you believe the changes are really worthwhile. A handful of dedicated editors have worked together over several years (going back several elections) to fashion the opinion polling page into its current state, so it is only fair to seek their consensus for major formatting changes like this. Cheers, Undermedia (talk) 12:50, 4 April 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Generating plots with R

If you're interested in trying to get my code working, the easiest way would be to install R-Studio. You should just be able to run my code turn-key without any problems, and it should produce the plot, then save it as SVG. If you get it installed, let me knwo and I'll walk you through how to run the code. It would be good to have two of us available to update the plots, especially during the polling madness of the election period, and you are much more active here than I am. galneweinhaw (talk) 19:43, 30 April 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Thanks, galneweinhaw. I've got it installed. What do we do next? I've noticed you've put the finishing touches on the 43rd federal election pre-campaign graph. Looks great. Since nobody else has weighed in on the Talk page discussion, I might just go ahead and trial the new graph alongside the current one on the main article page to get people's attention, and invite them to go to the Talk page to help decide whether we adopt it. Cheers, Undermedia (talk) 16:14, 3 May 2017 (UTC)[reply]

OK, see if you can get this to work. I'm probably using a different version of R studio (0.99.467) and a different OS (Linux Mint 17.3) than you, but hopefully this will work:

File > New Project (Choose *New Directory, then *Empty Project, then browse to where you want to save the project and give it a name). The project should open when done creation
File > R Script. You should get an "untitled1" text file open up.
Copy all the code from here and paste it in to your empty untitled1 doc
In the top right of the doc/script, you should see three buttons, click on "Source" which will run the script from top to bottom. You may see some errors/messages in the console below.
If everything works out, you should see the plot appear. You can resize the windows to get the plot the size you want it to be.
At the top of the chart, click Export > Save as Image. Give it a name and it will save to your project directory. You probably want SVG format.

Let me know how it goes! galneweinhaw (talk) 05:56, 7 May 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Thanks for the instructions, galneweinhaw! The GUI of the version I installed (R 3.4.0 GUI 1.70 El Capitan build 7338 for macOS) indeed appears to be very different from the one you have, but after some wrestling around with it, I think I'm now almost set. I was able to save the code as a "Source File", and by going to File menu > "Source File..." and opening the saved file, it appears to run the script from top to bottom as you described. At first, the console kept telling me that this or that package required to run the script was missing, so I used the "Package Installer" dialog box to successively search for and install each required package until it no longer reported any missing package errors. Now when I run it a window titled "Quartz 2 [*]" appears displaying the plot, with square dimensions by default. I can indeed manually click and drag to resize the window and alter the plot's dimensions, but I'm wondering if there's a way to specify the dimensions directly in the code so that it automatically/consistently displays at the desired dimensions each time the code is re-run to add new polls? The other thing is that I appear to only have the option to save the plot as a PDF (using the general "File menu > Save As..." command; there is no option to export in the chart window itself, just a title bar and the plot). Is an additional package required to add image exporting functionalities? If I can get these couple of bits figured out, then I'll likely have a few questions for you about the particularities of the code itself, but overall I think I'm very close to having it all set up. Thanks again for all your help! A lot of work has obviously gone into writing this code. Cheers, Undermedia (talk) 16:29, 7 May 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Just to confirm, you are using RStudio right? https://www.rstudio.com/products/rstudio/download/ The latest is version 1.0.143 for all OSes, so I just want to make sure we're using the same GUI. (meanwhile, I'll see if I can add the plot saving as svg into the code galneweinhaw (talk) 16:48, 7 May 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Oops, I'm an idiot... When I first installed and attempted to run RStudio, I got an error message saying that I first needed to install R (as stated on the RStudio download page), so I did, and now upon reading your above reply, I realized that I had been running the R app, not RStudio! Will try again with RStudio and report back. I'm assuming everything will run smoothly now... Stay tuned! Undermedia (talk) 16:59, 7 May 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Well, it's good you did that, because even with R Studio getting a consistently sized plot was frustrating, and now I've figured out how to just save the plot right from the code. So, thanks! Here's the updated code. Happy to discuss the code itself with you! galneweinhaw (talk) 17:12, 7 May 2017 (UTC)[reply]

43rd Canada election polling "lead"

Hello,

I've noticed you are the main contributor to the opinion polling of the 43rd Canadian election, and are very knowledgeable of it.

When I click to organize polls by "lead" a poll with a lead of "4" is positioned higher than a poll with a lead of "30" and "9" is higher than "19" because 4 is higher than the "3" in "30 and "9" is higher than the "1" in 19.

Are you able to fix this (if it is a quick fix)? I am not aware of how to do it.

All of your timely contributions are greatly appreciated! Mikemikem (talk) 04:01, 3 May 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Never mind, looks like someone else fixed it! Mikemikem (talk) 06:20, 3 May 2017 (UTC)[reply]

@@ Line 151: / Line 151: @@
 ::::Just to confirm, you are using [https://www.rstudio.com/products/rstudio/download/ RStudio] right? https://www.rstudio.com/products/rstudio/download/  The latest is version 1.0.143 for all OSes,  so I just want to make sure we're using the same GUI. (meanwhile, I'll see if I can add the plot saving as svg into the code [[User:Galneweinhaw|galneweinhaw]] ([[User talk:Galneweinhaw|talk]]) 16:48, 7 May 2017 (UTC)
 :::::Oops, I'm an idiot... When I first installed and attempted to run RStudio, I got an error message saying that I first needed to install R (as stated on the RStudio download page), so I did, and now upon reading your above reply, I realized that I had been running the R app, not RStudio! Will try again with RStudio and report back. I'm assuming everything will run smoothly now... Stay tuned! [[User:Undermedia|Undermedia]] ([[User talk:Undermedia#top|talk]]) 16:59, 7 May 2017 (UTC)
+::::::Well, it's good you did that, because even with R Studio getting a consistently sized plot was frustrating, and now I've figured out how to just save the plot right from the code. So, thanks!  [https://pastebin.com/6PXAy0Aj Here's the updated code]. Happy to discuss the code itself with you! [[User:Galneweinhaw|galneweinhaw]] ([[User talk:Galneweinhaw|talk]]) 17:12, 7 May 2017 (UTC)
 == 43rd Canada election polling "lead" ==