2010 United States Senate elections: Difference between revisions
→[[Johnny Isakson]] (R) of [[Georgia (U.S. State)|Georgia]]: cleaned up grammar |
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If Isakson does run for Governor, large numbers of candidates from both parties would line up for his seat; this is typical of most Southern states, which have Republicans generally holding most federal offices and Democrats either holding smaller statewide positions or having majorities in one or both houses of their state legislatures. |
If Isakson does run for Governor, large numbers of candidates from both parties would line up for his seat; this is typical of most Southern states, which have Republicans generally holding most federal offices and Democrats either holding smaller statewide positions or having majorities in one or both houses of their state legislatures. |
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For Republicans, potential candidates if Isakson runs for Governor include businessman [[Herman Cain]], who finished second to Isakson in the Republican primary for the Senate in 2004, and fellow |
For Republicans, potential candidates if Isakson runs for Governor include businessman [[Herman Cain]], who finished second to Isakson in the Republican primary for the Senate in 2004, and fellow Congressman [[Tom Price (US politician)|Tom Price]], who holds the same congressional seat that was held by Isakson before he became a Senator (the same congressional seat was also held by [[Newt Gingrich]]). Sophomore Republican [[Lynn Westmoreland]], who is also rumored to be considering a gubernatorial bid, might also run. |
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Democratic possibilities include Congressmen [[Jim Marshall (U.S. politician)|Jim Marshall]] and [[John Barrow (U.S. politician)|John Barrow]], both of whom represent vulnerable districts and thus likely to consider higher office in hopes of coming out as more appealing to voters. |
Democratic possibilities include Congressmen [[Jim Marshall (U.S. politician)|Jim Marshall]] and [[John Barrow (U.S. politician)|John Barrow]], both of whom represent vulnerable districts and thus likely to consider higher office in hopes of coming out as more appealing to voters. |
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Revision as of 00:34, 29 January 2007
Template:Future election in the United States
Elections to the United States Senate will be held on November 2, 2010, with thirty four of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested. Since Senators are elected for six-year terms, those elected will serve from January 3, 2011 until January 3, 2017. Those Senators who were elected in 2004 will be seeking re-election (or retiring) in 2010. The group of Senators up for election in 2010 are part of Senate Class 3, which traces its roots back to the Senators who served full 6-year terms in 1789-94.
The House elections will occur on the same date, as well as some state and local elections.
The composition of the Senate going into the 2010 election will depend on the results of the 2008 elections. Of the seats up for election, 19 are held by Republicans and 15 by Democrats.
There may be some additional changes of incumbent to the list below if Senators die or resign. If Senators in other classes die or resign in 2009 or 2010, there may be additional special elections in 2010.
Overview of races
Retiring Senators
Sam Brownback of Kansas (R)
Elected in 1996 to the Senate seat once held by Bob Dole and running for his party's presidential nomination in 2008, incumbent conservative Republican Sam Brownback has stated he will not run in 2010 because of self-imposed term limits. [1] Kansas is one of the most Republican states in the nation, as no Democrat has been elected to serve the Sunflower State since 1932. Possible successors to Brownback include Republican congressman Jerry Moran and Democratic Governor Kathleen Sebelius.
Possible retiring Senators
Bob Bennett (R) of Utah
Former entrepreneur-turned-Republican Senator Bob Bennett may retire. He will have served three terms in the Senate and will be 77 in 2010. Utah has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1970, when Frank Moss won his third term; he was succeeded in 1976 by Republican Orrin Hatch, who continues to hold what is the state's other Senate seat (Bennett is a Class III Senator; Hatch is a Class I Senator).
However, there are still a handful of popular Democrats who could be strong contenders, including former Attorney General Jan Graham and Congressman Jim Matheson. Matheson's congressional colleagues, Rob Bishop and Chris Cannon, would be strong contenders for the Republican nomination should Bennett step down. Given the strong Mormon presence in Utah (it has an all-Mormon congressional delegation), it is widely expected that Bennett's successor, regardless of party affiliation, will likewise be Mormon.
Four-term Republican Kit Bond may retire. Bond, who will be 71 in 2010, has usually attracted a Democratic challenger holding statewide office, as was the case in 2004 with then-State Treasurer Nancy Farmer. Missouri is considered a swing state that re-elected Bond and gave its electoral votes to George W. Bush in 2004, but gave Democrat Claire McCaskill Missouri's other Senate seat in 2006.
Missouri Attorney General Jay Nixon, who has won re-election to his position several times despite being a Democrat in what had been a Republican-trending state before McCaskill's successful Senate bid, would be a frontrunner for the Democrats if he loses his 2008 bid for the Governor's Mansion against mediocre Republican incumbent Matt Blunt, which is unlikely given Nixon's strong showing in recent polls for the governor's race and Blunt's unpopularity with voters.
Barbara Boxer (D) of California
The Chairwoman of the Environment and Public Works Committee, Democrat Barbara Boxer may retire. Boxer will turn 70 one week after election night in 2010 and will have served three terms, dating back to 1992. Boxer is one of the most progressive and liberal members of the U.S. Senate.
Her retirement would lead to a truckload of Democratic and Republican candidates combined running to succeed Boxer. Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger may seek the seat, as he would be ineligible to run again in the Gubernatorial race due to term limits. Representative David Dreier, the ranking member of the House Rules Committee, would also seek the seat for Republicans, as would Representative Darrell Issa. It remains to be seen if conservative State Senator Tom McClintock will consider a run for the seat, as McClintock is experienced in statewide contests (including a third-place finish in the 2003 California gubernatorial recall election), though McClintock is more likely to consider the Congressional seat of Republican Elton Gallegly, who is mulling the possibility of retirement.
For the Democrats, possible candidates include San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and Attorney General and former Governor Jerry Brown. Representatives Joe Baca, Adam Schiff and Loretta Sanchez could also run for the seat.
Jim Bunning (R) of Kentucky
Republican and Baseball Hall of Famer Jim Bunning is one of the most unpopular Senators in the country and is expected to face a difficult re-election or retire from Congress instead. Bunning will be 79 in 2010, and has become notorious for his erratic behavior, including using a teleprompter in a television debate during his 2004 race against his lesser-known opponent, Daniel Mongiardo, among other major gaffes, which led to Bunning's near-defeat.
The most popular elected Democrat in Kentucky is U.S. Representative and former Kentucky Attorney General Ben Chandler, who would be a formidable candidate should he challenge Bunning. Other strong contenders for the Democrats include popular former Governor Bereton Jones, State Auditor Crit Luallen, and Louisville Mayor Jerry Abramson
Christopher Dodd (D) of Connecticut
First elected in 1980, the longest-serving U.S. Senator in Connecticut history announced in a letter to the FEC on January 20, 2007, that he is no longer a candidate for re-election to the U.S. Senate in 2010. [2] However, this is just a technicality in order to transfer funds to his presidential campaign, the declaration could be reversed at any time, and a Dodd spokesman said "It's a legality that isn't an indication of future plans."[3] So it remains unknown if Dodd will really not run for re-election in 2010.
Chuck Grassley (R) of Iowa
Longtime Republican senator Chuck Grassley was the chair of the Senate Finance Committee until Democrats won control of the Senate in 2006. Grassley, who will be 77 in 2010 and is one of the most powerful members of the Senate, may retire from Congress, having served five terms as a Senator. Iowa is known to be a traditional populist state when it comes to its politics, with issues such as the economy, health care and education considered very important among its constituents. Thus, if Grassley retires, his potential successors are expected to be of a populist nature, whether the candidate is a Republican or a Democrat.
Daniel Inouye (D) of Hawaii
Veteran Democrat Daniel Inouye will be 86 in 2010 and will have served eight terms in the Senate and compiled a career in Washington spanning over two generations from Hawaii's first years of statehood to the present day. Whether or not Inouye retires, this will be a competitive race. An Inouye retirement would leave an open seat that favors the Democratic candidate, as Hawaii is normally a blue state in presidential elections, while another Inouye run could generate a primary challenge such as the one mounted by former Rep. Ed Case against Inouye's senatorial colleague, Daniel Akaka, in 2006. Akaka would eventually go on to win both the primary and the general election, though.
Johnny Isakson (R) of Georgia
There is some speculation that freshman Republican senator Johnny Isakson may run for Governor of Georgia to succeed popular Republican Sonny Perdue, who is term-limited. Isakson is a popular moderate whose first bid for the Senate (in 1996 to succeed retiring Democrat Sam Nunn) ended with a defeat in the Republican primary after Isakson listed himself as the pro-choice primary candidate, which is considered taboo as Georgia Republicans are overwhelmingly pro-life.
If Isakson does run for Governor, large numbers of candidates from both parties would line up for his seat; this is typical of most Southern states, which have Republicans generally holding most federal offices and Democrats either holding smaller statewide positions or having majorities in one or both houses of their state legislatures.
For Republicans, potential candidates if Isakson runs for Governor include businessman Herman Cain, who finished second to Isakson in the Republican primary for the Senate in 2004, and fellow Congressman Tom Price, who holds the same congressional seat that was held by Isakson before he became a Senator (the same congressional seat was also held by Newt Gingrich). Sophomore Republican Lynn Westmoreland, who is also rumored to be considering a gubernatorial bid, might also run.
Democratic possibilities include Congressmen Jim Marshall and John Barrow, both of whom represent vulnerable districts and thus likely to consider higher office in hopes of coming out as more appealing to voters.
Patrick Leahy (D) of Vermont
Six-term Senator Patrick Leahy may retire from the Senate; he will be 70 in 2010. However, as Leahy is now the Chairman of the powerful Senate Judiciary Committee, such a move would be unlikely as Democrats now control the Senate and Republicans control a majority of seats up for election in 2008 and 2010, which could result in larger Democratic Senate majorities that would discourage Leahy from retiring. Former governor and 2004 presidential candidate and current DNC Chairman Howard Dean may seek the seat should Leahy retire
John McCain (R) of Arizona
Considered one of the leading Republicans in the 2008 presidential election, John McCain may retire or leave his seat open should he become the 44th President of the United States. Whoever wins McCain's open seat in the special election will be considered the leading candidate in the contest for a full term in 2010. Possible Democrats who would be strong contenders include Governor Janet Napolitano and Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords.
Barbara Mikulski (D) of Maryland
The dean of women in the United States Senate, Democrat Barbara Mikulski may retire. The 74-year-old Mikulski has often been elected by large margins, which is no surprise given Maryland's traditional Democratic politics. An open seat will open the doors for Democrats, as well as Republicans, to run for this seat. Former Governor Robert Ehrlich and former Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele, who ran a strong Senate candidacy in 2006, would be among the GOP's candidates, while Democratic Reps. John Sarbanes, Dutch Ruppersberger, Al Wynn and Chris Van Hollen, and Governor Martin O'Malley would be some of the Democratic candidates for the seat.
Barack Obama (D) of Illinois
One-term Senator Barack Obama has emerged as a potential presidential candidate in 2008. If he becomes President or Vice President, his seat will become open and thus result in an all-out primary for both parties. Though Illinois is considered a Democratic stronghold in, Republicans still have some potential candidates, including U.S. Representative Mark Kirk. Democratic candidates include Congressmen Jesse Jackson Jr., Rahm Emanuel, and Lieutenant Governor Pat Quinn. If Obama runs, he will most likely be easily reelected.
Richard Shelby (R) of Alabama
Richard Shelby, a former Democrat who switched parties in 1994 when Republicans took control of both the House and Senate, may retire from the Senate. Shelby will be 76 in 2010. Though Alabama is a strong Republican state in presidential elections, Democrats control strong majorities in the Alabama Legislature and have some high-profile officeholders that would be strong candidates for Shelby's seat should it come up, as it is unlikely any of them will challenge for the seat if Shelby decides to run for a fifth term.
Arlen Specter (R) of Pennsylvania
Longtime moderate Republican Arlen Specter may retire. The five-term Specter will be 80 in 2010 and, following the 2006 elections, lost his chairmanship of the powerful Senate Judiciary Committee. In 2005, Specter underwent chemotherapy for Hodgkin's lymphoma, one year after coming off a hotly contested race pitting Specter against Reps. Pat Toomey (R) and Joe Hoeffel (D) in the primary and general election, respectively.
George Voinovich (R) of Ohio
Moderate Republican and former Cleveland mayor George Voinovich may retire. He will be 74 in 2010 and his party is currently struggling to rebuild its image following the infamous Coingate scandal and the fallout from the unpopularity of former Governor Bob Taft. Even though the scandals will be behind the GOP's backs in 2010, its impact could still be felt well into that year. Possible Democrats who might run include Governor Ted Strickland and Congressman Tim Ryan, although Strickland will be 69 years old in 2010.
Senate contests in 2010
| State | Incumbent | Party | Status | Opposing candidates | 2004 Election Results[1] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | Richard Shelby | Republican | Richard Shelby (R) 68%; Wayne Sowell (D) 32% | ||
| Alaska | Lisa Murkowski | Republican | Lisa Murkowski (R) 49%; Tony Knowles (D) 46%; Other 5% | ||
| Arizona | John McCain | Republican | John McCain (R) 77%; Stuart Starky (D) 21%; Other 3% | ||
| Arkansas | Blanche Lincoln | Democrat | Blanche Lincoln (D) 56%; Jim Holt (R) 44% | ||
| California | Barbara Boxer | Democrat | Barbara Boxer (D) 58%; Bill Jones (R) 38%; Other 4% | ||
| Colorado | Ken Salazar | Democrat | Ken Salazar (D) 51%; Pete Coors (R) 47%; Other 2% | ||
| Connecticut | Chris Dodd | Democrat | Chris Dodd (D) 66%; Jack Orchulli (R) 32%; Other 2% | ||
| Florida | Mel Martinez | Republican | Mel Martinez (R) 50%; Betty Castor (D) 48%; Other 2% | ||
| Georgia | Johnny Isakson | Republican | Johnny Isakson (R) 58%; Denise Majette (D) 40%; Other 2% | ||
| Hawaii | Daniel Inouye | Democrat | Daniel Inouye (D) 76%; Campbell Cavasso (R) 21%; Other 3% | ||
| Idaho | Mike Crapo | Republican | Mike Crapo (R) 99%; Other 1% | ||
| Illinois | Barack Obama | Democrat | Barack Obama (D) 70%; Alan Keyes (R) 27%; Other 3% | ||
| Indiana | Evan Bayh | Democrat | Evan Bayh (D) 62%; Marvin Scott (R) 37%; Other 1% | ||
| Iowa | Chuck Grassley | Republican | Chuck Grassley (R) 70% Arthur Small 28%; Other 2% | ||
| Kansas | Sam Brownback | Republican | Retiring[2] | Sam Brownback (R) 69%; Lee Jones (D) 28%; Other 3% | |
| Kentucky | Jim Bunning | Republican | Jim Bunning (R) 51%; Daniel Mongiardo (D) 49% | ||
| Louisiana | David Vitter | Republican | David Vitter (R) 51%; Chris John (D) 29%; John Kennedy (D)15%; Other 5% | ||
| Maryland | Barbara Mikulski | Democrat | Barbara Mikulski (D) 65%; Edward Pipkin (R) 34%; Other 1% | ||
| Missouri | Kit Bond | Republican | Kit Bond (R) 56%; Nancy Farmer (D) 43%; Other 1% | ||
| Nevada | Harry Reid | Democrat | Harry Reid (D) 61%; Richard Ziser (R) 35%; Other 4% | ||
| New Hampshire | Judd Gregg | Republican | Judd Gregg (R) 66%; Doris Haddock (D) 34% | ||
| New York | Chuck Schumer | Democrat | Chuck Schumer (D) 71%; Howard Mills (R) 24%; Other 5% | ||
| North Carolina | Richard Burr | Republican | Richard Burr (R) 52%; Erskine Bowles (D) 47%; Other 1% | ||
| North Dakota | Byron Dorgan | Democratic | Byron Dorgan (D) 68%; Mike Liffrig (R) 32% | ||
| Ohio | George Voinovich | Republican | George Voinovich (R) 64%; Eric Fingerhut (D) 36% | ||
| Oklahoma | Tom Coburn | Republican | Tom Coburn (R) 53%; Brad Carson (D) 41%; Sheila Bilyeu (Independent) 6% | ||
| Oregon | Ron Wyden | Democrat | Ron Wyden (D) 63%; Al King (R) 32%; Other 5% | ||
| Pennsylvania | Arlen Specter | Republican | Arlen Specter (R) 53%; Joe Hoeffel (D) 42%; Other 5% | ||
| South Carolina | Jim DeMint | Republican | Jim DeMint (R) 54%; Inez Tenenbaum (D) 44%; Other 2% | ||
| South Dakota | John Thune | Republican | Tom Daschle (D) 49%; John Thune (R) 51% | ||
| Utah | Robert Bennett | Republican | Robert Bennett (R) 69%; Paul Van Dam (D) 28%; Other 3% | ||
| Vermont | Patrick Leahy | Democrat | Patrick Leahy (D) 71%; Jack McMullen (R) 25%; Other 4% | ||
| Washington | Patty Murray | Democrat | Patty Murray (D) 55%; George Nethercutt (R) 43%; Other 2% | ||
| Wisconsin | Russ Feingold | Democrat | Russ Feingold (D) 56%; Tim Michels (R) 44% |