Russian invasion of Ukraine: Difference between revisions
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Chinese diplomats, government agencies, and state-controlled [[mass media in China|media in China]] have used the war as an opportunity to deploy anti-American propaganda,<ref>{{cite magazine |date=2 March 2022 |last=Kroll |first=Andy |title=China's Propaganda Machine Gears Up for Putin — and Blames America for the Invasion |url=https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/russia-china-ukraine-propaganda-invasion-ccp-1315024/ |magazine=[[Rolling Stone]]}}</ref> and amplified conspiracy theories created by Russia such as the false claims of US [[biological weapons]] laboratories in Ukraine.<ref>{{cite web |last=Wong |first=Edward |title=U.S. Fights Bioweapons Disinformation Pushed by Russia and China |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/10/us/politics/russia-ukraine-china-bioweapons.html |work=[[The New York Times]] |access-date=12 March 2022}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |date=5 March 2022 |title=How China embraces Russian propaganda and its version of the war |work=[[Japan Times]] |url=https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/03/05/asia-pacific/russia-china-information-war/}}</ref> [[iQIYI|iQiyi Sports]] stated they would not broadcast the [[Premier League]]'s matches on the weekend because of the league's planned shows of support for Ukraine.<ref>{{cite news |date=4 March 2022 |last=Roan |first=Dan |title=China Premier League coverage pulled |work=[[BBC Sport]] |url=https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/60524865 |access-date=4 March 2022}}</ref> |
Chinese diplomats, government agencies, and state-controlled [[mass media in China|media in China]] have used the war as an opportunity to deploy anti-American propaganda,<ref>{{cite magazine |date=2 March 2022 |last=Kroll |first=Andy |title=China's Propaganda Machine Gears Up for Putin — and Blames America for the Invasion |url=https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/russia-china-ukraine-propaganda-invasion-ccp-1315024/ |magazine=[[Rolling Stone]]}}</ref> and amplified conspiracy theories created by Russia such as the false claims of US [[biological weapons]] laboratories in Ukraine.<ref>{{cite web |last=Wong |first=Edward |title=U.S. Fights Bioweapons Disinformation Pushed by Russia and China |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/10/us/politics/russia-ukraine-china-bioweapons.html |work=[[The New York Times]] |access-date=12 March 2022}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |date=5 March 2022 |title=How China embraces Russian propaganda and its version of the war |work=[[Japan Times]] |url=https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/03/05/asia-pacific/russia-china-information-war/}}</ref> [[iQIYI|iQiyi Sports]] stated they would not broadcast the [[Premier League]]'s matches on the weekend because of the league's planned shows of support for Ukraine.<ref>{{cite news |date=4 March 2022 |last=Roan |first=Dan |title=China Premier League coverage pulled |work=[[BBC Sport]] |url=https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/60524865 |access-date=4 March 2022}}</ref> |
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Iranian state media has described the war as a "special military operation” and blamed it on NATO.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Ziabari |first=Kourosh |date=2022-03-09 |title=In Backing Russia on Ukraine, Iran Is on the Wrong Side of History |url=https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/09/iran-support-russia-war-ukraine/ |website=[[Foreign Policy]] |language=en-US}}</ref> They also criticised the [[British embassy in Tehran]] after it raised the Ukrainian flag in support of Ukraine. Russian state media such as Sputnik has published disinformation in collaboration with the Iranian state media.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2022-03-05 |title=In Iran, Sputnik Persian, the British Embassy and Ahmadinejad Clash Over Ukraine |url=https://iranwire.com/en/features/11420 |website=[[IranWire]] |language=en}}</ref> |
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== Sanctions and ramifications == |
== Sanctions and ramifications == |
Revision as of 17:54, 15 March 2022
This article documents a current military offensive. Information may change rapidly as the event progresses, and initial news reports may be unreliable. The latest updates to this article may not reflect the most current information. (February 2022) |
Russian invasion of Ukraine | |||||||
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Part of the Russo-Ukrainian War (outline) | |||||||
Map of Ukraine as of 24 November 2024[update] (details): Continuously controlled by Ukraine
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Belligerents | |||||||
Supported by: Belarus[b] North Korea[c] | Ukraine[d] | ||||||
Commanders and leaders | |||||||
Units involved | |||||||
Order of battle | Order of battle | ||||||
Strength | |||||||
Pre-invasion at border: 169,000–190,000[e][5][6][7] Pre-invasion total: 900,000 military[8] 554,000 paramilitary[8] In February 2023: 300,000+ active personnel in Ukraine[9] In June 2024: 700,000 active personnel in the area[10] |
Pre-invasion total: 196,600 military[11] 102,000 paramilitary[11] July 2022 total: up to 700,000[12] September 2023 total: over 800,000[13] | ||||||
Casualties and losses | |||||||
Reports vary widely, see § Casualties for details. | |||||||
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On 24 February 2022, Russia began a military invasion of Ukraine,[14] in a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict that had begun in 2014. It is the largest military conflict in Europe since World War II.[15][16][17] With over 2.9 million Ukrainians fleeing the country, the invasion has also caused the largest refugee crisis in Europe since World War II.[18][19][20]
Following the Ukrainian Revolution of Dignity in February 2014, Russia annexed Crimea, and Russian-backed separatists seized part of south-east Ukraine, starting the war in Donbas.[21][22] In 2021, Russia began a large military build-up along its border with Ukraine. The president of Russia, Vladimir Putin, espoused Russian irredentist views,[23] questioned Ukraine's right to statehood,[24][25] and accused Ukraine of being dominated by Neo-Nazis who persecute the Russian-speaking minority.[26] Putin also said NATO had threatened Russia's security by expanding eastward, in spite of NATO’s rejection of the claim,[27] and demanded Ukraine be barred from ever joining the alliance.[28] The United States and others accused Russia of planning to attack or invade Ukraine, which Russian officials repeatedly denied as late as 23 February 2022.[32]
On 21 February 2022, Russia recognised the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic, two self-proclaimed states in Donbas controlled by pro-Russian separatists and recognised by no other state.[33] The next day, the Federation Council of Russia authorised use of military force abroad, and Russian troops entered both territories.[34] On 24 February, at about 5:00 EET (UTC+2),[35] Putin announced a "special military operation" to "demilitarise and denazify" Ukraine.[36][37] Minutes later, missiles and airstrikes struck throughout Ukraine, including the capital Kyiv, shortly followed by a large ground invasion from multiple directions.[38][39] The president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, enacted martial law and general mobilisation.[40][41]
Multi-pronged assaults were launched from Russia proper, Belarus, and the two occupied territories of Ukraine (Crimea and Donbas). Four major war theatres developed: the Kyiv offensive, the Northeastern Ukraine offensive, the Eastern Ukraine offensive, and the Southern Ukraine offensive, while the Russian military also carried out air and missile strikes far into western Ukraine. Russian forces have approached or besieged a number of key settlements, such as Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Kherson, Kyiv, Mariupol, and Sumy,[42] but met stiff Ukrainian resistance, and experienced logistical and operational challenges that hampered their progress.[43][44]
The invasion was widely condemned internationally. The United Nations General Assembly adopted a resolution which condemned Russia's invasion and demanded a full withdrawal. Many countries imposed new sanctions which have led to economic consequences for Russia and the world economy.[45] Various countries gave humanitarian and military aid to Ukraine.[46] Protests occurred around the world; those in Russia have been met with mass arrests and increased media censorship,[47][48] including banning the terms "war" and "invasion".[39] Some companies withdrew their products and services from sale in Russia and Belarus.
Background
Post-Soviet context and Orange Revolution
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union (USSR) in 1991, Ukraine and Russia maintained close ties. In 1994, Ukraine agreed to accede to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons as a non-nuclear-weapon state. Former Soviet nuclear weapons in Ukraine were removed to Russia and dismantled.[49] In return, Russia, the United Kingdom (UK), and the United States (US) agreed to uphold the territorial integrity and political independence of Ukraine through the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances.[50][51] In 1999, Russia was one of the signatories of the Charter for European Security, which "reaffirmed the inherent right of each and every participating State to be free to choose or change its security arrangements, including treaties of alliance, as they evolve".[52] In the years after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, several former Eastern Bloc countries joined NATO, partly in response to regional security threats involving Russia such as the 1993 Russian constitutional crisis, the War in Abkhazia (1992–1993) and the First Chechen War (1994–1996). Russian leaders described this expansion as a violation of Western powers' informal assurances that NATO would not expand eastward.[28][53]
The 2004 Ukrainian presidential election was controversial. During the election campaign, opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko was poisoned by TCDD dioxin;[54][55] he later implicated Russian involvement.[56] In November, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych was declared the winner, despite allegations of vote-rigging by election observers.[57] During a two-month period which became known as the Orange Revolution, large peaceful protests successfully challenged the outcome. After the Supreme Court of Ukraine annulled the initial result due to widespread electoral fraud, a second round re-run was held, bringing to power Yushchenko as president and Yulia Tymoshenko as prime minister, and leaving Yanukovych in opposition.[58] The Orange Revolution is often grouped together with other early-21st century protest movements, particularly within the former USSR, known as colour revolutions. According to Anthony Cordesman, Russian military officers viewed such colour revolutions as an attempt by the US and European states to destabilise neighbouring countries and undermine Russia's national security.[59] Russian president Vladimir Putin accused organisers of the 2011–2013 Russian protests of being former advisors to Yushchenko, and described the protests as an attempt to transfer the Orange Revolution to Russia.[60] Rallies in favour of Putin during this period were called "anti-Orange protests".[61]
At the 2008 Bucharest summit, Ukraine and Georgia sought to join NATO. The response among NATO members was divided; Western European countries opposed offering Membership Action Plans (MAP) in order to avoid antagonising Russia, while US president George W. Bush pushed for their admission.[62] NATO ultimately refused to offer Ukraine and Georgia MAPs, but also issued a statement agreeing that "these countries will become members of NATO". Putin voiced strong opposition to Georgia and Ukraine's NATO membership bids.[63] By January 2022, the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO remained remote.[64]
Euromaidan, Revolution of Dignity, and war in Donbas
In 2009, Yanukovych announced his intent to again run for president in the 2010 Ukrainian presidential election,[65] which he subsequently won.[66] In November 2013, a wave of large, pro-European Union (EU) protests erupted in response to Yanukovych's sudden decision not to sign the EU–Ukraine Association Agreement, instead choosing closer ties to Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union. The Ukrainian parliament had overwhelmingly approved of finalizing the agreement with the EU.[67] Russia had put pressure on Ukraine to reject it.[68]
The scope of the protests widened, with protesters opposing widespread government corruption, police brutality, and repressive anti-protest laws.[69] In February 2014, clashes in Kyiv between protesters and Berkut special riot police resulted in the deaths of 100 protesters and 13 policemen; most of the victims were shot by police snipers.[70] On 21 February 2014, Yanukovych and parliamentary opposition leaders signed an agreement calling for an interim government and early elections. The following day, Yanukovych fled Kyiv and then the country;[71] the Verkhovna Rada, the Ukrainian parliament, voted to remove him from office.[72][73][74] Leaders in Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine declared continuing loyalty to Yanukovych,[75] leading to pro-Russian unrest.[76] Russian state-controlled media portrayed the crisis as having been instigated by the post-Yanukovych Ukrainian government, and represented Euromaidan as being controlled by "ultranationalist", "fascist",[77][78] "neo-Nazi",[79] and "anti-Semitic" groups.[80]
The unrest was followed by the annexation of Crimea by Russia in March 2014 and the war in Donbas, which started in April 2014 with the formation of two Russia-backed separatist quasi-states: the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic.[81][82] Russian troops were involved in the conflict.[83][84][85] The Minsk agreements were signed in September 2014 and February 2015 in a bid to stop the fighting, although ceasefires repeatedly failed.[86] A dispute emerged over the role of Russia: Normandy Format members France, Germany, and Ukraine understood Minsk as an agreement between Russia and Ukraine, whereas Russia insisted its role was that of a neutral mediator, pressing Ukraine to negotiate directly with representatives of the two separatist republics.[87][88] In 2021, Putin refused offers from Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy for high-level talks, and the Russian government subsequently endorsed an article by former president Dmitry Medvedev arguing it was pointless to deal with Ukraine while it remained a "vassal" of the US.[89]
The annexation of Crimea led to a new wave of Russian nationalism, with large parts of the Russian neo-imperial movement aspiring to annex more land from Ukraine, including the unrecognized Novorossiya.[90] Analyst Vladimir Socor argued that Putin's 2014 speech after the annexation of Crimea was a de facto "manifesto of Greater-Russia Irredentism".[91] In July 2021, Putin published an essay titled On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians, in which he reaffirmed his view that Russians and Ukrainians were "one people".[92] American historian Timothy D. Snyder described Putin's ideas as imperialism,[93] while British journalist Edward Lucas called it historical revisionism.[94] Other observers regarded the Russian leadership as having a distorted view of modern Ukraine and its history.[95][96][97] Ukraine and other European countries neighbouring Russia accused Putin of irredentism and of pursuing aggressive militaristic policies.[98][99][100]
Prelude
Rise in tensions
From March to April 2021, Russia commenced a major military build-up near the Russo-Ukrainian border, followed by a second build-up between October 2021 to February 2022 in both Russia and Belarus.[102] During these developments, the Russian government repeatedly denied it had plans to invade or attack Ukraine;[30][103] those who issued the denials included Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov in November 2021, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov in January 2022,[29] Russian ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov on 20 February 2022,[30] and Russian ambassador to the Czech Republic Alexander Zmeevsky on 23 February 2022.[31]
In early December 2021, following Russian denials, the US released intelligence of Russian invasion plans, including satellite photographs showing Russian troops and equipment near the Ukrainian border.[104] The intelligence reported the existence of a Russian list of key sites and individuals to be killed or neutralized upon invasion.[105] The US continued to release reports that accurately predicted the invasion plans,[105] but according to Michael Kofman of the Center for Naval Analyses, the Ukrainian government did not adequately prepare for a large invasion.[106]
Russian accusations and demands
In the months preceding the invasion, Russian officials accused Ukraine of inciting tensions, Russophobia, and the repression of Russian speakers in Ukraine. They also made multiple security demands of Ukraine, NATO, and non-NATO allies in the EU. These actions were described by commentators and Western officials as attempts to justify war.[107][108] On 9 December 2021 Putin said that "Russophobia is a first step towards genocide".[109][110] Putin's claims were dismissed by the international community,[111] and Russian claims of genocide have been widely rejected as baseless.[112][113][114]
Ukrainian President Zelensky declared that 16 February, a speculated date for the invasion, would be a "Day of Unity". Ukrainians were encouraged to "hang our national flags, put on blue and yellow ribbons, and show our unity to the whole world", as well as to sing the national anthem in public spaces at 10:00 EET (UTC+2).[115][116]
In a 21 February speech,[117] Putin questioned the legitimacy of the Ukrainian state, repeating an inaccurate claim that "Ukraine never had a tradition of genuine statehood".[118] He incorrectly described the country as having been created by Soviet Russia.[24] To justify an invasion, Putin falsely accused Ukrainian society and government of being dominated by neo-Nazism, invoking the history of collaboration in German-occupied Ukraine during World War II,[26][119] and echoing an antisemitic conspiracy theory which casts Russian Christians, rather than Jews, as the true victims of Nazi Germany.[37][111] While Ukraine has a far-right fringe, including the neo-Nazi Azov Battalion and Right Sector,[120][121] analysts have described Putin's rhetoric as greatly exaggerating the influence of far-right groups within Ukraine; there is no widespread support for the ideology in the government, military, or electorate.[107][26] Ukrainian president Zelenskyy, who is Jewish, stated that his grandfather served in the Soviet army fighting against the Nazis;[122] three of his family members died in the Holocaust.[123]
During the second build-up, Russia issued demands to the US and NATO, including a legally binding arrangement preventing Ukraine from ever joining NATO, and the removal of multinational forces stationed in NATO's Eastern European member states.[125] Russia threatened an unspecified military response if NATO continued to follow an "aggressive line".[126] These demands were widely interpreted as being non-viable; new NATO members in Central and Eastern Europe had joined the alliance because their populations broadly preferred to move towards the safety and economic opportunities offered by NATO and the EU, and their governments sought protection from Russian irredentism.[127] The demand for a formal treaty preventing Ukraine from joining NATO was also seen as unviable by Western officials as it would contravene the treaty's "open door" policy, although NATO showed no desire to accede to Ukraine's requests to join.[128]
Alleged clashes (17–21 February)
Fighting in Donbas escalated significantly from 17 February 2022 onwards.[129] The Ukrainians and the Russian separatists each accused the other of firing into their territory.[130][131] On 18 February, the Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics ordered mandatory emergency evacuations of civilians from their respective capital cities,[132][133][134] although observers noted that full evacuations would take months.[135] Ukrainian media reported a sharp increase in artillery shelling by the Russian-led militants in Donbas as attempts to provoke the Ukrainian army.[136][137]
In the days leading up to the invasion, the Russian government intensified its disinformation campaign, with Russian state media promoting fabricated videos (false flags) on a nearly hourly basis purporting to show Ukrainian forces attacking Russia, in a bid to justify an invasion of Ukraine.[138] Many of the disinformation videos were poor and amateur in quality, and evidence showed that the claimed attacks, explosions, and evacuations in Donbas were staged by Russia.[138][139][140]
Escalation (21–23 February)
On 21 February at 22:35 (UTC+3),[141] Putin announced that the Russian government would diplomatically recognize the Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics.[142] The same evening, Putin directed that Russian troops be deployed into Donbas, in what Russia referred to as a "peacekeeping mission".[143][144] The 21 February intervention in Donbas was condemned by several members of the UN Security Council; none voiced support for it.[145] On 22 February, the Federation Council unanimously authorised Putin to use military force outside Russia.[34]
In response, Zelenskyy ordered the conscription of army reservists;[146] The following day, Ukraine's parliament proclaimed a 30-day nationwide state of emergency and ordered the mobilisation of all reservists.[147][148][149] Meanwhile, Russia began to evacuate its embassy in Kyiv.[150] The websites of the Ukrainian parliament and government, along with banking websites, were hit by DDoS attacks,[151] widely attributed to Russian-backed hackers.[152][153]
On the night of 23 February,[154] Zelenskyy gave a speech in Russian in which he appealed to the citizens of Russia to prevent war.[155][156] He also refuted Russia's claims about the presence of neo-Nazis in the Ukrainian government and stated that he had no intention of attacking the Donbas region.[157] Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on 23 February that the separatist leaders in Donetsk and Luhansk had sent a letter to Putin stating that Ukrainian shelling had caused civilian deaths and appealing for military support from Russia.[158]
In response, Ukraine requested an urgent UN Security Council meeting,[159] which convened at 21:30 (UTC−5).[160] Half an hour into the emergency meeting, Putin announced the start of military operations in Ukraine. Sergiy Kyslytsya, the Ukrainian representative, subsequently called on the Russian representative, Vasily Nebenzya, to "do everything possible to stop the war" or relinquish his position as president of the UN Security Council; Nebenzya refused.[161][162]
Invasion and resistance
This section needs to be updated.(March 2022) |
On 24 February, shortly before 06:00 Moscow Time (UTC+3), Putin announced that he had made the decision to launch a "special military operation" in eastern Ukraine.[163][164] In his address, Putin stated there were no plans to occupy Ukrainian territory and that he supported the right of the peoples of Ukraine to self-determination.[165][166] He said the purpose of the "operation" was to "protect the people" in the predominantly Russian-speaking region of Donbas who, according to Putin, "for eight years now, have been facing humiliation and genocide perpetrated by the Kyiv regime".[167]
Putin also stated that Russia sought the "demilitarisation and denazification" of Ukraine.[168] Within minutes of Putin's announcement, explosions were reported in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odessa, and the Donbas region.[169] An allegedly leaked report for Russia's spy agency FSB claims that the intelligence agency was not warned about Putin's plan to invade Ukraine.[170][171]
Immediately following the attack, Zelenskyy announced the introduction of martial law in Ukraine;[172] the same evening, he ordered a general mobilisation of all Ukrainian males between 18 and 60 years old.[41] Russian troops entered Ukraine from the north in Belarus (towards Kyiv); from the northeast in Russia (towards Kharkiv); from the east in the DPR and the LPR; and from the south in Crimea.[173]
Russian equipment and vehicles were marked with a white Z military symbol (a non-Cyrillic letter), believed to be a measure to prevent friendly fire.[102]
Northern front
The effort to take Kyiv included a main effort striking south from Belarus along the west bank of the Dnipro River, with the apparent attempt to encircle Kyiv from the west. It was supported by two separate axes of attack from Russia along the east bank of the Dnipro: the western at Chernihiv and the eastern at Sumy. The eastern axes of attack apparently intended to encircle Kyiv from the northeast and east.[174][175]
In the Battle of Chernobyl, Russians took control of the ghost towns of Chernobyl and Pripyat;[176] their advance was hindered by strong resistance from Ukrainian troops.[177] Following their breakthrough in Chernobyl, the Russian advance was held at the Battle of Ivankiv, a northern suburb of Kyiv. Russian Airborne Forces attempted to seize two airfields around Kyiv in the Battle of Antonov Airport,[178][179] and then at the Battle of Vasylkiv over Vasylkiv Air Base south of Kyiv on 26 February.[180][181] These attacks appeared to have been an attempt by Russia to seize Kyiv rapidly, with Spetsnaz infiltrating into the city supported by airborne operations and a rapid mechanized advance from the north, but proved unsuccessful.[182]
By early March, further Russian advances along the west side of the Dnipro were limited, suffering setbacks in the face of a strong Ukrainian defence.[174][175] As of 5 March, a large Russian convoy, reportedly 64 kilometres (40 mi) in length, had made little progress toward Kyiv;[183] the London-based think-tank Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) assessed the Russian performance from the north and east as "stalled".[184] Advances along the Chernihiv axis had largely halted as the siege of Chernihiv began. Russian forces also continued advancing from the northwest of Kyiv, capturing Bucha, Hostomel, and Vorzel by 5 March,[185][186] though Irpin remained contested as of 9 March.[187] By 11 March, it was reported that the lengthy convoy had largely dispersed, taking up positions that offered tree cover. Rocket launchers were also identified.[188]
Northeastern front
Russian armed forces made a major thrust into the northeastern provinces (oblasts) of Chernihiv Oblast and Sumy Oblast and their eponymous administrative capitals. Currently, Chernihiv is under siege. The oblast's second largest city, Konotop, which is 90 kilometres (56 mi) from the Russian border, came under Russian control on 25 February.[189][190] In Sumy Oblast, Russian forces almost captured Sumy city, just 35 kilometres (22 mi) from the Russian border, at the outset of hostilities, but in the ensuing Battle of Sumy, Ukrainian forces held the city amidst heavy urban fighting. According to Ukrainian sources, more than 100 Russian armoured vehicles were destroyed and dozens of soldiers were captured.[191] Fighting was also taking place in Okhtyrka.[192]
In an assessment of the campaign on 4 March, Frederick Kagan wrote that the "Sumy axis is currently the most successful and dangerous Russian avenue of advance on Kyiv", and commented that the geography favoured mechanized advances as the terrain "is flat and sparsely populated, offering few good defensive positions".[175] Russia has made the deepest advances along the Sumy axis in the east; the Russians won the Battle of Konotop, while the Battle of Sumy is ongoing. Russian forces moving along highways from Sumy reached Brovary, an eastern suburb of Kyiv, on 4 March.[174][175]
Eastern front
In the east, Russian troops tried to capture Kharkiv, which is located less than 35 kilometres (22 mi) from the Russian border.[193][194] In the Battle of Kharkiv, Russian tanks were met with strong resistance. On 28 February, the city was targeted by various missile attacks that claimed several lives. The battle was described by a Ukrainian presidential adviser as the "Stalingrad of the 21st century".[195]
On the morning of 25 February, Russian Armed Forces advanced from DPR territory in the east towards Mariupol and encountered Ukrainian forces near the village of Pavlopil, where they were defeated.[196][197][198] The Russian Navy reportedly began an amphibious assault on the Sea of Azov coastline 70 kilometres (43 mi) west of Mariupol on the evening of 25 February. A US defence official stated that the Russians were potentially deploying thousands of Russian Naval Infantry from this beachhead.[199][200][201] On 1 March, Denis Pushilin, the head of the DPR, announced that DPR forces had almost completely surrounded the nearby city of Volnovakha and they would soon do the same to Mariupol.[202] On 2 March, Russian forces were repelled from Sievierodonetsk during the Battle of Sievierodonetsk.[203]
Southern front
On 24 February, Russian troops took control of the North Crimean Canal, allowing Crimea to obtain water supplies for the peninsula from the Dnieper river, which had been cut off since 2014.[204] The siege of Mariupol began as the attack also moved east towards Mariupol, and linking the front with the Donbas separatist regions.[192][205] On 1 March, Russian forces started preparing to resume their attack on Melitopol and other cities, starting the Battle of Melitopol.[206] Ivan Fedorov, the mayor of Melitopol, later stated that the Russians had occupied the city.[207]
Other Russian forces advanced north from Crimea on 26 February, with Russia's 22nd Army Corps approaching the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.[208][209] On 28 February, they began the siege of Enerhodar in an attempt to take control of the nuclear power plant.[210] A fire developed during the gun-battle.[211] The International Atomic Energy Agency stated that essential equipment had not been damaged.[212] By 4 March, the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant had been captured by Russian forces, but while fires were reported, there was no radiation leak.[213]
A third axis of attack out of Crimea moved northwest, where Russian forces captured bridges over the Dnieper River.[214] On 2 March, Russian troops won the Battle of Kherson, the first major city captured during the invasion.[215] Russian troops then advanced to Mykolaiv, which stands between Kherson and Odesa. On 4 March, Ukrainian defenders repelled an attack in the Battle of Mykolaiv and recaptured Kulbakino Air Base.[216]
The Horlivka offensive by Ukrainian forces began on 2 March;[217] the city of Horlivka, in the Donetsk Oblast, had been mainly controlled by the DPR from 2014.[218] Following a renewed missile attack on 14 March in Mariupol, the Ukrainian government said more than 2,500 people had died in the city.[219]
Air and naval engagements
On 24 February, the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine announced about 18:00 local time that an attack on Snake Island by Russian Navy ships had begun.[220] The cruiser Moskva and patrol boat Vasily Bykov bombarded the island with their deck guns.[221] When the Russian warship identified itself and instructed the Ukrainian soldiers stationed on the island to surrender, their response was "Russian warship, go fuck yourself!"[222][223] After the bombardment, a detachment of Russian soldiers landed and took control of Snake Island.[224] Russian forces also attacked the Chuhuiv air base on 24 February,[225] which housed Bayraktar TB2 drones. The attack caused damage to fuel storage areas and infrastructure.[226]
On 25 February, the Millerovo air base attack by Ukrainian military forces relied on OTR-21 Tochka missiles. According to Ukrainian officials, this destroyed several Russian Air Force planes and set the airbase on fire.[227][228] In the Zhytomyr Airport attack on 27 February, it was reported that Russia used 9K720 Iskander missile systems, located in Belarus, to attack the civilian Zhytomyr Airport.[229][230] Russia lost several aircraft on 5 March, including an Su-30SM, two Su-34, two Su-25, two Mi-24/Mi-35, two Mi-8 helicopters, and an Orlan unmanned aircraft.[231] On 6 March, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported 88 Russian aircraft had been destroyed since the war began.[232] However, an anonymous senior US defense official told Reuters on 7 March that Russia still had the "vast majority" of its fighter jets and helicopters that had been amassed near Ukraine available to fly.[233]
Russia stated on 26 February that US drones were supplying intelligence to the Ukrainian navy to help target Russian warships in the Black Sea, which the US denied.[234] By 3 March, the Ukrainian frigate Hetman Sahaidachny, the flagship of the Ukrainian navy, was scuttled in Mykolaiv to prevent its capture by Russian forces.[235][236][237]
On 13 March, Russian forces conducted multiple cruise missile attacks on a military training facility in Yavoriv, Lviv Oblast, close to the Polish border. Local governor Maksym Kozytskyy reported that at least 35 people had been killed in the attacks.[238][239]
The Russian Air Force has played a far smaller role in the fighting than analysts had originally predicted. Analysts had expected that the far more numerous and better-funded Russian Air Force would quickly be able to suppress the Ukrainian Air Force and air defences and then be able to closely support the Russian Army; in the first two weeks of fighting, the Russian Air Force played a minimal role and the Ukrainian Air Force and air defences remained effective. The nonperformance of the Russian Air Force has been attributed by The Economist to Russia's inability to suppress Ukraine's medium ranged surface-to-air missile (SAM) batteries, Russia's lack of precision guided bombs, together with Ukrainian mid-range SAM sites that force planes to fly low, making them vulnerable to Stinger and other shoulder-launched surface-to-air missiles, and lack of training and flight hours for Russian pilots rendering them inexperienced for the type of close ground support missions typical of modern air forces.[240]
Popular resistance
Ukrainian civilians have resisted the Russian invasion in various ways, such as volunteering to join local armed territorial defence units, making Molotov cocktails, donating food, constructing barriers such as Czech hedgehogs,[241] and helping to transport refugees.[242]
Various tactics of unarmed civil resistance have been employed across Ukraine. Responding to the call from Ukraine's streets agency, Ukravtodor, civilians dismantled or altered local road signs, constructed makeshift barriers and blocked roadways. Social media reports and shared videos show spontaneous street protests against the Russian forces in occupied settlements, often evolving into verbal altercations and physical standoffs with Russian troops.[243]
In some instances, people physically blocked Russian military vehicles, sometimes forcing them to retreat.[243][244] For instance, a video shot in occupied Kherson showed a man on top of a moving Russian armored personnel carrier, waving a Ukrainian national flag.[245] The Russian soldiers' response to unarmed civilian resistance varied from reluctance to engage the protesters[243] to firing into the air or directly into crowds.[246] There have been mass detentions of Ukrainian protesters, and local Ukrainian media have also reported forced disappearances, mock executions, hostage-taking, extrajudicial killing, and sexual violence perpetrated by the Russian military to try to break the Ukrainian resistance.[247]
Foreign military support to Ukraine
Since 2014, the UK, US, EU and NATO have provided mostly non-lethal military aid to Ukraine.[248] Lethal military support was limited, with the US beginning to sell weapons including Javelin anti-tank missiles starting in 2018,[248] and Ukraine agreeing to purchase TB2 combat drones from Turkey in 2019.[249] As Russia began building up its equipment and troops on Ukraine's borders, in January 2022 the US started approving some of the NATO member states to transfer their US-produced weapons to Ukraine.[250] Following the invasion, NATO member states including Germany and the UK agreed to supply weapons, but NATO as an organisation did not.[46][251][252] NATO and its member states also refused to send troops into Ukraine as this would risk a larger scale war,[253][254] a decision which some experts have labelled as a policy of appeasement.[255][256]
On 26 February, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced that he had authorised $350 million in lethal military assistance, including anti-armor and anti-aircraft systems.[257][258] The next day the EU stated that it would purchase €450 million (US$502 million) in lethal assistance and an additional €50 million ($56 million) in non-lethal supplies to be supplied to Ukraine, with Poland acting as a distribution hub.[259][260][261] EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell stated that the EU intended to supply Ukraine with fighter jets. Bulgaria, Poland, and Slovakia had MiG-29s, and Slovakia also had Su-25s, aircraft which Ukraine already flew and which could be transferred without pilot training.[262] However, the planes' owners were reluctant to donate weapons critical for their own territorial defences, and feared that Russia could view it as an act of war if jets fly from their air bases to fight over Ukraine.[263][264]
Foreign volunteers
Ukraine has been actively seeking volunteers from other countries. On 1 March, Ukraine temporarily lifted visa requirements for foreign volunteers who wished to enter the country and join the fight against Russian forces. The move came after Zelenskyy created the International Legion of Territorial Defense of Ukraine and called on volunteers to "join the defense of Ukraine, Europe and the world."[265]
Ukraine's foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba stated that as of 6 March, approximately 20,000 foreign nationals from 52 countries have volunteered to fight for Ukraine.[266] Most of these volunteers joined the newly created International Legion of Territorial Defense of Ukraine.[266]
On 3 March, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov warned that mercenaries are not entitled to protection under the Geneva Conventions, and foreign fighters that have been captured will not be given prisoner of war status and will be prosecuted as criminals.[267]
However, on 11 March, Moscow announced that 16,000 volunteers from the Middle East were ready to join other pro-Russian foreign fighters fighting alongside the Donbas separatists.[268] A video uploaded online showed armed Central African paramilitaries calling to arms to fight in Ukraine with Russian troops.[269]
Casualties and humanitarian impact
Casualties
Excluding the Russian soldiers, at least 26 people from 11 countries besides Ukraine died during the war. Below is a list of the nationalities of the foreign victims.
Country | Deaths | Reference(s) |
---|---|---|
Greece | 12 | [270][271] |
Azerbaijan | 4 | [272] |
Belarus | 2 | [273] |
Afghanistan | 1 | [274] |
Algeria | 1 | [275] |
Armenia | 1 | [276] |
Bangladesh | 1 | [277] |
India | 1 | [275][278] |
Iraq | 1 | [279] |
Ireland | 1 | [280] |
Israel | 1 | [281] |
United States | 1 | [282] |
In addition, at least one foreign fighter from Belarus died while fighting as part of Ukrainian forces.[283][284]
Prisoners of war
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There have been many instances of troops being captured by both Ukrainian and Russian forces throughout the invasion. On 8 March, a Ukrainian defence reporter with The Kyiv Independent announced that the Ukrainian government was working towards having Russian POWs work to help revive the Ukrainian economy, in full compliance with international law.[285] Oksana Markarova, Ukraine's ambassador to the US, reported that a platoon of the 74th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade from Kemerovo Oblast surrendered to Ukraine, saying they "didn't know that they were brought to Ukraine to kill Ukrainians".[286]
Ukrainian officials published photos and videos of killed and captured Russian soldiers.[287] Amnesty International argued that Article 13 of the Third Geneva Convention prohibits videos of captured soldiers.[288]
Refugees
The war has caused a major refugee and humanitarian crisis within Europe not seen since the 1990s Yugoslav Wars;[289][290] the UN has described it as the fastest growing such crisis since World War II.[291] Because of the continued military build-up in Russia along the Ukrainian border, many neighbouring governments and aid organisations had been preparing for a mass displacement event in the weeks before the invasion. In December 2021, the Ukrainian defence minister estimated that an invasion could force three to five million people to flee their homes.[292]
In the first week of the invasion, the UN reported over a million refugees had fled Ukraine; this subsequently rose to over 2.9 million as of 15 March,[20][293] in the first major humanitarian crisis in Europe since the Yugoslav Wars of the 1990s.[18] Most refugees were women, children, the elderly, or people with disabilities.[294][295][296] Most male Ukrainian nationals aged 18 to 60 were denied exit from Ukraine as part of mandatory conscription.[297][f] Many Ukrainian men, including teenagers, in any case opted to remain in Ukraine to join the resistance against the Russian invasion.[299] There has been an inflow of over 66,200 Ukrainian men to Ukraine, who returned from abroad to fight.[300] A second refugee crisis created by the invasion and by the Russian government's crackdown has been the flight of up to 200,000 Russian political refugees, to countries like the Baltic states and Turkey. Some of these have faced discrimination for being Russian.[301][302]
On 14 March, BBC News, relying on UN High Commission for Refugees data, reported that the total number of refugees exceeded 2.8 million people, the majority of whom crossed the border to Poland.[303] The BBC report provided the number of refugees seeking refuge in specific nations, stating Poland had received 1,720,227 refugees, Hungary 255,291, Slovakia 204,862, Moldova 106,994, Romania 84,671 (as at 8 March), Russia 131,365, and Belarus 1,226.[304]
War crimes
The invasion of Ukraine was appraised by many international jurists as a violation of the UN Charter and constituted a crime of aggression according to international criminal law, raising the possibility that the crime of aggression could be prosecuted under universal jurisdiction.[305][306][307] The invasion also violated the Rome Statute, which prohibits "the invasion or attack by the armed forces of a State of the territory of another State, or any military occupation, however temporary, resulting from such invasion or attack, or any annexation by the use of force of the territory of another State or part thereof". Ukraine had not ratified the Rome Statute and Russia withdrew its signature from it in 2016.[308]
On 25 February, Amnesty International said that it had collected and analysed evidence showing that Russia had violated international humanitarian law, including attacks that could amount to war crimes; it also said that Russian claims to be only using precision-guided weapons were false.[309][310] AI and Human Rights Watch (HRW) said that Russian forces had carried out indiscriminate attacks on civilian areas and strikes on hospitals, including firing a 9M79 Tochka ballistic missile with a cluster munition warhead towards a hospital in Vuhledar, which killed four civilians and wounded ten others, including six healthcare staff.[311][312]
A maternity and children's hospital in Mariupol was targeted by a Russian air strike on 9 March. A regional official stated that the attack happened during a pre-arranged ceasefire, and estimated that at least 17 people were injured as a result.[313] Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, the governor of Sumy Oblast, said that at least six Ukrainians, including a seven-year-old girl, had died in a Russian attack during the Battle of Okhtyrka on 26 February, and that a kindergarten and orphanage had been hit.[314]
On 28 February, AI and HRW denounced the use of cluster munitions and thermobaric weapons by Russian invasion forces in Ukraine. According to the UK's Ministry of Defence, Russia has confirmed it has used thermobaric weapons in Ukraine,[315] though International law does not prohibit the use of thermobaric weapons against military targets.[316][317] The use of cluster munitions in war is prohibited by the Convention on Cluster Munitions of 2008, though Russia and Ukraine are not part of this convention.[318] Both the Ukrainian and Russian governments have accused each other of using human shields.[319][320] On 1 March, President Zelenskyy said there was evidence that civilian areas had been targeted during a Russian artillery bombardment of Kharkiv earlier that day, and described it as a war crime.[321]
Legal proceedings against Russia
International Criminal Court
On 27 February, the Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba called for the International Criminal Court (ICC) to investigate the Okhtyrka kindergarten bombing.[314] On 28 February, Karim Ahmad Khan, the chief prosecutor of the ICC, said he planned to open an investigation into allegations of war crimes in Ukraine "as rapidly as possible" following the ICC's preliminary examination of the case. Thirty-nine states officially referred the situation in Ukraine to the ICC. On 3 March, Khan announced that evidence was being collected of alleged war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide committed by individuals of all sides during the invasion and that a full investigation would be opened.[322]
International Court of Justice
Ukraine filed a lawsuit against Russia before the International Court of Justice (ICJ), accusing Russia of violating the 1948 Genocide Convention (to which both Ukraine and Russia are parties) by falsely claiming genocide as a pretext for invading Ukraine.[323] The International Association of Genocide Scholars supported Ukraine's request. Ukraine asked the ICJ to adopt provisional measures, an order directing Russia to halt its offensive in Ukraine. The ICJ granted Ukraine's request to expedite the proceedings.[324] Russian representatives refused to appear at a court hearing at the Peace Palace in The Hague.[325]
Other legal proceedings
Iryna Venediktova, the prosecutor general of Ukraine, has called for an ad hoc international criminal tribunal to be established to hold Russian officials responsible for waging the crime of aggression and for atrocities during the war. Domestic criminal proceedings have been opened in Estonia, Germany, Latvia, and Poland, investigating potential war crimes committed by Russia against Ukraine.[326]
Peace efforts
On 28 February, Ukrainian and Russian negotiators started to hold rounds of talks in Belarus for reaching a ceasefire and ensuring humanitarian corridors for the evacuation of civilians. After three rounds of talks, an overall deal was not reached.[327]
On 5 March, Russia declared a brief, five-and-a-half hour ceasefire in Mariupol and Volnovakha, to open humanitarian corridors for civilians to evacuate.[328][329] Ukraine blamed Russian forces for repeatedly breaking the ceasefire by shelling the two cities;[330][331] the Russian defence ministry stated the firing came from inside both cities against Russian positions.[331] The International Committee of the Red Cross declared that the effort to evacuate civilians had failed.[332]
On 7 March, as a condition for ending the invasion, the Kremlin demanded Ukraine's neutrality, recognition of Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014, as Russian territory, and recognition of the self-proclaimed separatist republics of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states.[333] The same day, Russia declared a temporary ceasefire in Kyiv, Sumy, and two other cities, starting from 10:30 Moscow Time (UTC+3). The ceasefire had been announced to allow civilian evacuations from the four Ukrainian cities. The Russian army had announced the opening of several humanitarian corridors and exits in Ukraine.[334][335][336]
On 8 March, Zelenskyy suggested a direct meeting with Putin to end the invasion and expressed willingness to discuss Putin's demands.[337] Zelenskyy said he is ready for dialogue, but "not for capitulation".[338] He proposed a new collective security agreement for Ukraine with the US, Turkey, France, Germany, and Russia as an alternative to the country joining NATO.[339] Zelenskyy's Servant of the People party said that Ukraine would not give up its claims on Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk.[340]
On 10 March, Foreign Ministers Sergey Lavrov and Dmytro Kuleba met for talks in Antalya, Turkey, with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu as a mediator in the first high-level contact between the two sides since the beginning of the invasion.[341]
Media depictions
Throughout the invasion, messages, videos, photos, and audio recordings were widely shared across social media and news sites and by friends and families of Ukrainian and Russian citizens. While many were authentic, first-hand images of the conflict, others were images and videos of past conflicts and events or were otherwise misleading. Some of these were created to spread disinformation or propaganda.[342][343][344]
Some observers have criticized Western media's portrayal of Ukraine's suffering as somehow different from the suffering in wars in countries like Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Iraq, Libya, Palestine, Syria, and Yemen.[345][346][347]
Censorship and propaganda
Censorship of domestic and foreign media
The Russian censorship apparatus Roskomnadzor ordered the country's media to only employ information from Russian state sources or face fines and blocks,[348] and ordered media agencies to describe the war as a "special military operation",[349] in line with Putin's speech to the nation on 24 February 2022. As the Russian government has avoided referring to the Russian invasion of Ukraine as a war or an invasion, stories that describe the event as an "assault", "invasion", or a "declaration of war" were ordered to be deleted.[350][351][352] Roskomnadzor launched an investigation against several independent Russian media outlets for publishing information about the war or civilian casualties.[353] Roskomnadzor also threatened to block access to the Russian Wikipedia in Russia over its article on the invasion for reporting casualties among the Russian military personnel and Ukrainian civilians.[354][355]
Roskomnadzor imposed partial restriction on access to Facebook on 25 February,[356] as Facebook had refused a Russian demand to stop fact-checking the posts made by four state-owned media organisations: Zvezda, RIA Novosti, Lenta.ru, and Gazeta.Ru.[357] On 26 February, Facebook announced that it would ban Russian state media from advertising and monetising content on its platform.[358] Facebook also uncovered a Russian disinformation campaign using fake accounts, and attempts to hack the accounts of high-profile Ukrainians.[359] On 4 March, Roskomnadzor blocked access to several foreign media outlets, including BBC News Russian, Voice of America, RFE/RL, Deutsche Welle, and Meduza, as well as Facebook and Twitter.[360][361][362] Russian authorities also blocked access to Echo of Moscow and Dozhd (TV Rain), Russia's last independent TV station,[363] claiming that they were spreading false information on the Russian military and calling for violence.[364] On 3 March, Echo of Moscow's board of directors voted to close the station down.[365]
President Putin signed into law a bill introducing prison sentences of up to 15 years for those who publish "fake news" about the Russian military and its operations,[366] leading to some media outlets to stop reporting on Ukraine; he also signed into law a bill that would allow fines or prison sentences of up to three years for those calling for sanctions.[367][368][369] On 11 March, Mark Bernstein, a top Russian Wikipedia editor, was detained by the Belarusian security service GUBOPiK on charges of violating the "fake news" law after being doxxed on Telegram.[370]
State propaganda
Russian state-controlled media, such as Russia-24,[372] Russia-1, and Channel One, and pro-Kremlin TV pundits like Vladimir Solovyov mostly followed the government's narrative on the war.[373][374][375] On 28 February, RIA Novosti published and then took down an article incorrectly saying that Russia had won the Russo-Ukrainian War and that "Ukraine has returned to Russia".[376][377] RT, a Russian state-controlled television network, was banned in Poland and suspended by television service providers in Australia,[378] Canada,[379] and Gibraltar.[380][381] Russian state-linked channels such as RT and Sputnik were also blocked by YouTube across Europe to prevent Russian disinformation.[382] Many RT journalists resigned from RT following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.[383][384]
Russian teachers received detailed instructions on how to talk to students about the invasion of Ukraine.[385] The Mayakovsky Theatre in Moscow received a government email "to refrain from any comments on the course of military actions in Ukraine", warning that any negative comments would be "regarded as treason against the Motherland".[385] A state-run poll published on 28 February by the Kremlin-funded VTsIOM claimed that 68% of surveyed Russians supported the "special military operation", 22% opposed, and 10% found it difficult to answer.[386] A survey conducted by independent researchers from 28 February to 1 March also found that 58% of Russian respondents approved of the military operation, while 23% opposed it.[387][388]
However, a series of four online polls by Alexei Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation found that between 25 February and 3 March, the share of Russian respondents who considered Russia an "aggressor" increased from 29% to 53%, while the share of those who considered Russia a "peacemaker" fell by half from 25% to 12%.[389][390] Some observers noted what they described as a "generational struggle" among Russians over perception of the war, with younger Russians generally opposed to the war and older Russians more likely to accept the narrative presented by state-controlled mass media in Russia.[391][392]
Propaganda in other countries
Chinese diplomats, government agencies, and state-controlled media in China have used the war as an opportunity to deploy anti-American propaganda,[393] and amplified conspiracy theories created by Russia such as the false claims of US biological weapons laboratories in Ukraine.[394][395] iQiyi Sports stated they would not broadcast the Premier League's matches on the weekend because of the league's planned shows of support for Ukraine.[396]
Iranian state media has described the war as a "special military operation” and blamed it on NATO.[397] They also criticised the British embassy in Tehran after it raised the Ukrainian flag in support of Ukraine. Russian state media such as Sputnik has published disinformation in collaboration with the Iranian state media.[398]
Sanctions and ramifications
Sanctions
Western countries and others began imposing limited sanctions on Russia when it recognised the independence of Donbas. With the commencement of attacks on 24 February, a large number of other countries began applying sanctions with the aim of crippling the Russian economy. The sanctions were wide-ranging, targeting individuals, banks, businesses, monetary exchanges, bank transfers, exports, and imports.[399][400][401]
The sanctions included cutting off major Russia banks from SWIFT, the global messaging network for international payments, although there would still be limited accessibility to ensure the continued ability to pay for gas shipments.[402] Sanctions also included asset freezes on the Russian Central Bank, which holds $630 billion in foreign-exchange reserves,[403] to prevent it from offsetting the impact of sanctions[404][405][406] and implicated the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.[407] By 1 March, the total amount of Russian assets being frozen by sanctions amounted to $1 trillion.[408]
Several countries that are historically neutral, such as Switzerland and Singapore,[410][411] have agreed to sanctions.[412][413] Some countries also applied sanctions to Belarusian organisations and individuals, such as president Alexander Lukashenko, because of Belarus' involvement in the invasion.[414]
On 27 February, Putin responded to the sanctions, and to what he called "aggressive statements" by Western governments, by ordering the country's "deterrence forces"—generally understood to include its nuclear forces—to be put on a "special regime of combat duty". This novel term provoked some confusion as to what exactly was changing, but US officials declared it generally "escalatory".[415]
Following sanctions and criticisms of their relations with Russian business, a boycott movement began and many companies and organisations chose to exit Russian or Belarusian markets voluntarily.[416] The boycotts impacted many consumer goods, entertainment, education, technology, and sporting organisations.[417]
The US instituted export controls, a novel sanction focused on restricting Russian access to high-tech components, both hardware and software, made with any parts or intellectual property from the US. The sanction required that any person or company that wanted to sell technology, semiconductors, encryption software, lasers, or sensors to Russia request a licence, which by default was denied. The enforcement mechanism involved sanctions against the person or company, with the sanctions focused on the shipbuilding, aerospace, and defence industries.[418]
As an effect of the sanctions, Russian elites shifted funds worth hundreds of millions of dollars from sanctioning countries, like the UK and Switzerland, to countries that have not imposed sanctions, like the United Arab Emirates.[419]
Airspace
Russian airlines and private flights, with the exception of certain permitted flights such as those made for humanitarian reasons, were banned from national airspaces in the EU,[420] UK,[421] and US.[422] Russia responded by banning several countries from its airspace.[423] On 25 February, US carrier Delta Air Lines announced that it was suspending ties with Aeroflot.[424]
Economic impact
Kristalina Georgieva, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, warned that the conflict posed a substantial economic risk for the region and internationally. She added that the Fund could help other countries impacted by the conflict, complementary to a $2.2 billion loan package being prepared to assist Ukraine. David Malpass, the president of the World Bank Group, said that the conflict would have far-reaching economic and social effects, and reported that the bank was preparing options for significant economic and fiscal support to Ukrainians and the region.[425]
Despite unprecedented international sanctions against Russia, payments for energy raw materials were largely spared from these measures, as were food supplies because of the potential impact on world food prices. Russia and Ukraine are major producers of wheat that is exported through the Bosporus to Mediterranean and North African countries.[426][427] The expulsion of some Russian banks from SWIFT is expected to affect the country's exports.[428] Due to the fact that Russia is the largest trading and economic partner for post-Soviet states in Central Asia and a major destination for millions of CIS's migrant workers,[429] Central Asia has been particularly hard hit by sanctions against Russia.[430]
The major weapon manufacturers reported sharp rises in interim revenues and profits.[431][432][433]
Russia
Economic sanctions affected Russia from the first day of the invasion, with the stock market falling by up to 39% (RTS Index). The Russian ruble fell to record lows, as Russians rushed to exchange money.[434][435][436] Stock exchanges in Moscow and St. Petersburg were suspended until at least 18 March,[437] making it the longest closure in Russia's history.[438] On 26 February, S&P Global Ratings downgraded the Russian government credit rating to "junk", causing funds that require investment-grade bonds to dump Russian debt, making further borrowing very difficult for Russia.[439]
The Central Bank of Russia announced interventions, its first since the 2014 annexation of Crimea, to stabilise the market.[440] On 28 February, it raised interest rates to 20% and banned foreigners from selling local securities.[441] According to a former deputy chairman of the Russian central bank, the sanctions put the Russian National Wealth Fund at risk of disappearing.[442] With the value of the Russian ruble and the share prices for Russian equities falling on major exchanges, the Moscow Exchange was closed for a day, which since has been extended to over a week.[443][444] As of 28 February, the price of Russia's credit default swaps signalled about a 56% chance of default.[445] Fitch Ratings fears Russia will imminently default on its debts.[446]
On 27 February, BP, one of the world's seven largest oil and gas companies and the single largest foreign investor in Russia, announced it was divesting from Rosneft.[447] The Rosneft interest comprised about half of BP's oil and gas reserves and a third of its production. The divestment was thought likely to cost the company up to $25 billion and analysts noted that it was unlikely that BP would be able to recover anywhere near the value of Rosneft.[448] The same day, the Government Pension Fund of Norway, the world's largest sovereign wealth fund, announced that it would divest itself from its Russian assets. The fund owned about 25 billion Norwegian krone ($2.83 billion) in Russian company shares and government bonds.[449]
On 28 February, Shell plc also announced that it would be pulling its investments in Russia.[450] On 1 March, the Italian energy company Eni announced that it would cancel its investments into the Blue Stream pipeline.[451] The same day, the world's largest shipping companies Maersk and Mediterranean Shipping Company suspended all container shipments to Russia, excluding foodstuffs, medical, and humanitarian supplies.[452][453]
Russia is reported to be experiencing a brain drain due to mass migration of up to 200,000 mainly younger Russian refugees, many of whom are tech industry professionals, to countries like Armenia, the Baltic states, and Turkey.[301][302] In response to sanctions in the entertainment industry, Russia is considering the legalization of software piracy.[454]
Ukraine
The National Bank of Ukraine suspended currency markets, announcing that it would fix the official exchange rate. The central bank also limited cash withdrawals to 100,000 hryvnia per day and prohibited withdrawal in foreign currencies by members of the general public. The PFTS Ukraine Stock Exchange stated on 24 February that trading was suspended due to the emergency events.[455]
Commodities
Russia is the world's largest exporter of grains, natural gas, and fertilisers, and among the world's largest suppliers of crude oil and metals, including palladium, platinum, gold, cobalt, nickel, and aluminium.[457][458][459] As a result of the invasion, Brent oil prices rose above $130 a barrel for the first time since 2008.[460] The Biden administration was pressed on potential oil deals with Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and Iran that would have them increase their oil production.[461] However, so far, Saudi Arabia has declined requests from the US.[462][463]
The invasion threatened the energy supply from Russia to Europe,[464][465] with natural gas prices in Europe reaching an all-time high of $3,700 per thousand cubic meters on 7 March at ICE Futures.[466][467] This caused European countries to seek to diversify their energy supply routes.[468][469] On 7 March, German chancellor Olaf Scholz and other European leaders pushed back against the call by the US and Ukraine to ban imports of Russian gas and oil because "Europe's supply of energy for heat generation, mobility, power supply and industry cannot be secured in any other way".[470] The EU indicated that it would cut its gas dependency on Russia by two-thirds in 2022.[471] Germany stated that it would reduce its dependence on Russian energy imports by accelerating renewables and reaching 100% renewable energy generation by 2035.[472][473] Before the invasion, the EU's energy strategy had focused more on the Green Deal and "Fit for 55" plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030.[474]
Supply chain chaos due to Russia's key role in energy and commodity trade could fuel global inflation.[475] At the time of the invasion, Ukraine was the fourth-largest exporter of corn and wheat, and the world's largest exporter of sunflower oil, with Russia and Ukraine together responsible for 29% of the world's wheat exports and 75% of world sunflower oil exports.[476] On 24 February, China announced that it would drop all restrictions on Russian wheat, in what the South China Morning Post called a potential "lifeline" for the Russian economy.[477] On 25 February, the benchmark Chicago Board of Trade March wheat futures contracts reached their highest price since 2012, with the prices of corn and soybean also spiking.[476] The head of the World Food Programme, David Beasley, warned that the war in Ukraine could take the global food crisis to "levels beyond anything we've seen before".[478]
The supply of neon, needed for chip manufacture and lasers, was also severely constrained by the conflict. Ukraine produces about 70% of the global neon supply,[479] and 90% of the semiconductor-grade neon used in the United States.[480][481] The two largest suppliers in Ukraine, which together account for half of global neon production, were shuttered after the conflict broke out.[480] The supply of krypton and xenon, of which Ukraine is also a major exporter, was affected as well.[482]
Reactions
International organisations
United Nations
On 23 February, UN Secretary-General António Guterres urged Russia to immediately end aggression in Ukraine.[483]
On 25 February, Russia vetoed a UN Security Council draft resolution "deploring, in the strongest terms, the Russian Federation's aggression", as expected. Eleven countries voted in favour while China, India, and the United Arab Emirates abstained.[484] The UN Security Council voted to hold an emergency special session of the UN General Assembly to vote on a similar resolution,[485] which was convened on 28 February.[486] On 2 March, the UN General Assembly voted 141–5 to demand Russia stop the war and withdraw all of its military forces; 35 countries abstained, including Algeria, Bangladesh, China, India, Pakistan, and South Africa, while Belarus, Eritrea, North Korea, and Syria were Russia's sole supporters. Russia's UN representative said that the adoption of the resolution could fuel further violence.[487]
During a meeting of the UN Human Rights Council on 1 March, over 100 diplomats walked out in protest over a speech by Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov.[488][489][490]
NATO
Many NATO member states in Eastern Europe triggered security consultations under Article 4.[492] The Estonian government issued a statement by Prime Minister Kaja Kallas saying: "Russia's widespread aggression is a threat to the entire world and to all NATO countries, and NATO consultations on strengthening the security of the Allies must be initiated to implement additional measures for ensuring the defence of NATO Allies. The most effective response to Russia's aggression is unity."[493] On 24 February, Stoltenberg announced new plans that "will enable us to deploy capabilities and forces, including the NATO Response Force, to where they are needed".[494] Following the invasion, NATO announced plans to increase military deployments[495] in the Baltics, Poland, and Romania.[496][497]
After the 25 February UN Security Council meeting, Stoltenberg announced that parts of the NATO Response Force would be deployed, for the first time ever, to NATO members along the Eastern border. He stated that forces would include elements of the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF), currently led by France.[498] The US announced on 24 February that it would be deploying 7,000 troops to join the 5,000 already in Europe.[498] NATO forces include the USS Harry S. Truman's Carrier Strike Group 8, which entered the Mediterranean Sea the previous week as part of a planned exercise. The carrier strike group was placed under NATO command, the first time this had occurred since the Cold War.[499]
As Russia began to build forces on Ukraine's border in the leadup to their invasion, Finland and Sweden, both neutral states, increased their cooperation with NATO.[500] Both countries attended the emergency NATO summit as members of NATO's Partnership for Peace, and both condemned the invasion and have provided assistance to Ukraine. On 25 February, the Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova threatened Finland and Sweden with "military and political consequences" if they attempted to join NATO.[501] Both Finnish and Swedish public opinion shifted in favor of joining NATO after the invasion.[502] A public petition asking the Parliament of Finland to hold a referendum to join NATO reached the required 50,000 signatures, prompting a parliamentary discussion on 1 March.[503]
European Union
On 27 February, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen announced that the EU would ban Russian state-owned media outlets RT and Sputnik in response to disinformation and their coverage of the conflict in Ukraine.[504] She also said that the EU would finance the purchase and delivery of military equipment to Ukraine and proposed a ban on Russian aircraft using EU airspace.[505] The following day, the Council of the EU adopted two assistance measures to strengthen Ukraine's military capabilities.[506][507] The measures, for a total value of € 500 million, financed the provision of military equipment to the Ukrainian armed forces including – for the first time in the history of the European Union – weapons and other lethal equipments.[508]
Germany had maintained a policy called Ostpolitik, choosing dependence on Russia energy to maintain peaceful relations with Russia and to integrate it in to Europe, while allowing defence spending to fall.[509] In response to the invasion, Germany cancelled Nord Stream 2 and announced a new policy of energy independence from Russia admitting that Ostpolitik was a failure. In addition, Germany provided arms shipments to Ukraine, the first time that it provided arms to a country at war since the end of World War II. Germany also increased defence expenditures by approximately $100 billion, by some estimates making it the third largest military spender in the world.[509] This change from a policy of appeasement to brinkmanship has been called a new epoch in German policy by The Economist.[510]
Council of Europe
On 25 February, the Committee of Ministers of the Council of Europe decided to suspend Russia from its rights of representation in the Committee of Ministers and in the Parliamentary Assembly.[511][512] In the following days, the European Court of Human Rights granted interim measures indicating to the Russian Federation that they should refrain from military attacks against civilians and civilian objects and should ensure access to safe evacuation routes, healthcare, food and other essential supplies, rapid and unconstrained passage of humanitarian aid, and movement of humanitarian workers.[513] Russia replied, accusing NATO and EU countries of having undermined the European Council, and announcing its intention to withdraw from the organization.[514][515] Russia made it clear that its exit from the Council of Europe would mean a withdrawal from all of its institutions, including the European Court of Human Rights.[516]
Protests
In Russia
Almost 2,000 Russians in 60 cities across Russia were detained by police on 24 February for protesting against the invasion, according to OVD-Info;[517] by 6 March, it reported that more than 13,000 protestors had been detained overall,[518] with over 5,000 detained that day.[519] Russia's interior ministry justified these arrests due to the "coronavirus restrictions, including on public events" that continue to be in place.[520] Russian authorities warned Russians of legal repercussions for joining anti-war protests.[521] Nobel Peace Prize winner Dmitry Muratov announced that the Novaya Gazeta newspaper would publish its next edition in both Ukrainian and Russian. Muratov, journalist Mikhail Zygar, director Vladimir Mirzoyev, and others signed a document stating that Ukraine was not a threat to Russia and calling for Russian citizens to denounce the war.[522]
Elena Chernenko, a journalist at Kommersant, circulated a critical open letter signed by 170 journalists and academics.[523] Mikhail Fridman, a Russian oligarch, said that the war would "damage two nations who have been brothers for hundreds of years" and called for the "bloodshed to end".[524] Three Communist members of parliament, who had supported the resolution recognising the Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics believing it was a peacekeeping mission and not a full-scale invasion, were the sole members of the State Duma to speak out against the war.[525] State Duma deputy Mikhail Matveev voted in favour of the recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics but later condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[526][non-primary source needed] State Duma deputy Oleg Smolin said he was "shocked" by the invasion.[527]
More than 30,000 technology workers;[528] 6,000 medical workers; 3,400 architects;[527] 4,300 teachers;[385] 17,000 artists;[529] 5,000 scientists;[530] 1,200 students, faculty and staff of Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO);[531] and 2,000 actors, directors, and other creative figures signed petitions calling for Putin's government to stop the war.[353][532] Russian human rights activist Lev Ponomaryov started a petition to protest the invasion, garnering more than 750,000 signatures by 26 February.[353] Some Russians who signed petitions against Russia's war in Ukraine lost their jobs.[533] The founders of the Immortal Regiment commemoration movement, in which ordinary Russians annually march with photographs of veteran family members to mark World War II's Victory Day on 9 May, called on Putin to cease fire and described the use of force as "inhuman".[532]
On 3 March, the multinational oil company Lukoil, the second largest company in Russia after Gazprom, called for a ceasefire and diplomatic means to solve the conflict.[534]
Outside Russia
Protests in support of Ukraine were worldwide.[536][537] In Prague, about 80,000 people protested in Wenceslas Square.[538] On 27 February, more than 100,000 gathered in Berlin to protest against Russia's invasion.[539] During the 2022 Belarusian constitutional referendum, protestors in Minsk chanted "No to war" at polling stations.[540] On 28 February, instead of the traditional Cologne Carnival parade Rose Monday, which had been cancelled a few days earlier due to COVID-19,[541][542] more than 250,000 (instead of the anticipated 30,000) gathered in Cologne in a peace march to protest against the Russian invasion;[543] many protesters employed the slogan "Glory to Ukraine".[544]
As well as the protests, there were also reported instances of Russophobia and discrimination against the Russian diaspora as a result of the war.[545][546][547]
See also
- Military history of the Russian Federation
- Post-Soviet conflicts – Armed conflict taking place in former territories of the Soviet Union
- Russo-Georgian War – 2008 conflict between Russia and Georgia
- Second Cold War – Term referring to heightened tensions in the 21st century
- Transnistria War – 1990–1992 conflict between Moldova and Russian-backed self-proclaimed Transnistria
- World War III – Hypothetical future global conflict
- List of Russian generals killed during the 2022 invasion of Ukraine
General
Explanatory notes
- ^ a b The Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic were Russian puppet states, having declared their independence from Ukraine in May 2014. In 2022, they received international recognition from each other, Russia, Syria and North Korea, and some other partially recognised states. On 30 September 2022, after a referendum, Russia declared that it had formally annexed both entities. They continue to exist as republics of Russia.
- ^ Belarus let Russia use its territory to launch the invasion[1][2] and to launch missiles into Ukraine.[3]
- ^ North Korea has been widely reported to be supporting Russia with troops since October 2024.[4]
- ^ See § Foreign involvement for more details.
- ^ Including military, paramilitary, and 34,000 separatist militias.
- ^ Ukraine permitted its male nationals to cross the border if they were responsible for the financial support of three or more children, were single fathers, or were the parent/guardian of children with disabilities.[298]
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{{cite web}}
:|last=
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Wenclass Square
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External links
- Part of Putin's national address pre-invasion. Comments archived at archive.today. Video archived at ghostarchive.org.
- Russia invades Ukraine Live Update. CNN.
- Ukraine live updates. BBC News.
- U.S. and International Response to Russia's Invasion of Ukraine. C-SPAN.
- Video of aftermath, including injured pregnant woman being carried, after Russian airstrike on hospital in Mariupol, Ukraine. Sky News, March 9, 2022
- Russia invades Ukraine. Reuters, 10 March 2022
- Current events from February 2022
- 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine
- 2022 controversies
- Russo-Ukrainian War
- Ongoing conflicts in Europe
- Conflicts in 2022
- February 2022 events in Ukraine
- March 2022 events in Europe
- 2022 in international relations
- 2022 in Ukraine
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- Invasions of Ukraine
- Invasions by Russia
- Military history of Ukraine
- Post-Soviet conflicts
- Russian irredentism
- Russia–NATO relations
- Russia–Ukraine military relations
- Ukraine–NATO relations
- Belarus–Ukraine relations
- Vladimir Putin
- Volodymyr Zelenskyy
- Wars involving Belarus
- Wars involving Chechnya
- Wars involving the Donetsk People's Republic
- Wars involving the Luhansk People's Republic
- Wars involving Russia
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