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Greenwood received a B.S. in [[Economics|Economics and Mathematics]] at [[MIT]] in 1998, before receiving his [[Ph.D.]] from [[Harvard University|Harvard]] in Economics in 2003.<ref name=":0">{{Cite web |date=2021-11-17 |title=State Street Announces Partnerships with MIT’s Antionette Schoar, Harvard’s Robin Greenwood to Advance Cryptocurrency and Macroeconomic Research Initiatives |url=https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20211117005845/en/State-Street-Announces-Partnerships-with-MIT%E2%80%99s-Antionette-Schoar-Harvard%E2%80%99s-Robin-Greenwood-to-Advance-Cryptocurrency-and-Macroeconomic-Research-Initiatives |access-date=2023-01-04 |website=www.businesswire.com |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Writer |first=Christina Pazzanese Harvard Staff |date=2020-04-27 |title=Shutdown threatens businesses, but reopening has its own challenges |url=https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/04/shutdown-threatens-businesses-but-reopening-has-its-own-challenges/ |access-date=2023-01-04 |website=Harvard Gazette |language=en-US}}</ref> During his Ph.D., Greenwood spent time as a post-doctoral Fellow at [[Harvard Business School]], before becoming an Assistant Professor of Business Administration there in 2003. He’s remained a member of the school’s faculty since, though was a [[Visiting scholar|Visiting Fellow]] at the [[London School of Economics]] in 2007, and a Schoen Scholar at [[Yale University]] in 2008. Greenwood became a full professor in 2012.<ref>{{Cite book |last=Materials |first=United States Congress House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure Subcommittee on Railroads, Pipelines, and Hazardous |url=https://books.google.com.uy/books?id=1gE1DABm6BsC&pg=PA37&dq=robin+greenwood+harvard&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjytcXd3az8AhX7pZUCHSmuCtcQ6AF6BAgCEAI |title=Investment in the Rail Industry: Hearing Before the Subcommittee on Railroads, Pipelines, and Hazardous Materials of the Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, House of Representatives, One Hundred Tenth Congress, Second Session, March 5, 2008 |date=2008 |publisher=U.S. Government Printing Office |isbn=978-0-16-083585-8 |page=37 |language=en |quote=And our final panelist is Mr. Robin Greenwood , Assistant Professor at the Harvard Business School .}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book |last=Kinlaw |first=William |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=Q7IzEAAAQBAJ&pg=PA1&dq=robin+greenwood+harvard&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjrhMzy3qz8AhXUr5UCHbaPBdM4FBDoAXoECAQQAg |title=Asset Allocation: From Theory to Practice and Beyond |last2=Kritzman |first2=Mark P. |last3=Turkington |first3=David |date=2021-07-27 |publisher=John Wiley & Sons |isbn=978-1-119-81771-0 |language=en}}</ref> He also spent time, between 2018 and 2021, as head of the Finance Unit at Harvard Business School, and was formerly chair of the Business Economics PhD program.<ref name=":0" /> |
Greenwood received a B.S. in [[Economics|Economics and Mathematics]] at [[MIT]] in 1998, before receiving his [[Ph.D.]] from [[Harvard University|Harvard]] in Economics in 2003.<ref name=":0">{{Cite web |date=2021-11-17 |title=State Street Announces Partnerships with MIT’s Antionette Schoar, Harvard’s Robin Greenwood to Advance Cryptocurrency and Macroeconomic Research Initiatives |url=https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20211117005845/en/State-Street-Announces-Partnerships-with-MIT%E2%80%99s-Antionette-Schoar-Harvard%E2%80%99s-Robin-Greenwood-to-Advance-Cryptocurrency-and-Macroeconomic-Research-Initiatives |access-date=2023-01-04 |website=www.businesswire.com |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Writer |first=Christina Pazzanese Harvard Staff |date=2020-04-27 |title=Shutdown threatens businesses, but reopening has its own challenges |url=https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/04/shutdown-threatens-businesses-but-reopening-has-its-own-challenges/ |access-date=2023-01-04 |website=Harvard Gazette |language=en-US}}</ref> During his Ph.D., Greenwood spent time as a post-doctoral Fellow at [[Harvard Business School]], before becoming an Assistant Professor of Business Administration there in 2003. He’s remained a member of the school’s faculty since, though was a [[Visiting scholar|Visiting Fellow]] at the [[London School of Economics]] in 2007, and a Schoen Scholar at [[Yale University]] in 2008. Greenwood became a full professor in 2012.<ref>{{Cite book |last=Materials |first=United States Congress House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure Subcommittee on Railroads, Pipelines, and Hazardous |url=https://books.google.com.uy/books?id=1gE1DABm6BsC&pg=PA37&dq=robin+greenwood+harvard&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjytcXd3az8AhX7pZUCHSmuCtcQ6AF6BAgCEAI |title=Investment in the Rail Industry: Hearing Before the Subcommittee on Railroads, Pipelines, and Hazardous Materials of the Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, House of Representatives, One Hundred Tenth Congress, Second Session, March 5, 2008 |date=2008 |publisher=U.S. Government Printing Office |isbn=978-0-16-083585-8 |page=37 |language=en |quote=And our final panelist is Mr. Robin Greenwood , Assistant Professor at the Harvard Business School .}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book |last=Kinlaw |first=William |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=Q7IzEAAAQBAJ&pg=PA1&dq=robin+greenwood+harvard&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjrhMzy3qz8AhXUr5UCHbaPBdM4FBDoAXoECAQQAg |title=Asset Allocation: From Theory to Practice and Beyond |last2=Kritzman |first2=Mark P. |last3=Turkington |first3=David |date=2021-07-27 |publisher=John Wiley & Sons |isbn=978-1-119-81771-0 |language=en}}</ref> He also spent time, between 2018 and 2021, as head of the Finance Unit at Harvard Business School, and was formerly chair of the Business Economics PhD program.<ref name=":0" /> |
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Greenwood is a member of the Financial Advisory Roundtable of the [[Federal Reserve Bank of New York]] alongside [[Viral Acharya]], [[Thomas Philippon]], [[John H. Cochrane]], [[Jeremy C. Stein]], [[Toni Whited]] and others, and serves as the Associate Editor of the Review of Financial Studies; a review he was formerly editor of.<ref name=":0" /><ref>{{Cite web |title=Financial Advisory Roundtable - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK |url=https://www.newyorkfed.org/aboutthefed/far.html |access-date=2023-01-04 |website=www.newyorkfed.org}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last= |title=Robin Greenwood in Reuters – The Review of Financial Studies |url=http://rfssfs.org/news/robin-greenwood-in-reuters/ |access-date=2023-01-04 |language=en-US |quote=RFS Editor Robin Greenwood’s paper is featured in Reuters in a piece titled, “Fed should keep trillions in bonds to provide stability: paper.”}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |date=2016-08-27 |title=Fed should keep trillions in bonds to provide stability: paper |language=en |work=Reuters |url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-research-bonds-idUSKCN1120HP |access-date=2023-01-04}}</ref> |
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== Research == |
== Research == |
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=== 'Bubbles for Fama' === |
=== 'Bubbles for Fama' === |
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Greenwood’s research |
Greenwood’s research focuses primarily on behavioural and institutional finance, with a specific view on [[Macroeconomics|macro-level market inefficiencies]]; notably [[monetary policy]], [[Stock market bubble|stock price bubbles]] and [[Financial crisis|predictable financial crises]].<ref>{{Cite web |last=Writer |first=Christina Pazzanese Harvard Staff |date=2018-02-06 |title=Harvard Business School’s Robin Greenwood discusses the stock market plunge |url=https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2018/02/harvard-business-schools-robin-greenwood-discusses-the-stock-market-plunge/ |access-date=2023-01-04 |website=Harvard Gazette |language=en-US |quote=The things I’ve worked on have been investor expectations, measurement of bubbles, and things like that. We did some work on trying to predict the end of bubbles.}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=Energy stocks are in a bubble — and here’s when they’re likely to crash |url=https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/energy-stocks-are-in-a-bubble-%E2%80%94-and-heres-when-theyre-likely-to-crash/ar-AA148jT4 |access-date=2023-01-04 |website=MSN |language=en-US |quote=The researchers found that the probability of a market sector crashing — defined as a drop of at least 40% over the subsequent two years — was correlated with its trailing two-year performance relative to the overall market.}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last= |date=2021-04-06 |title=Vital Signs: swaps, options and other derivatives aren't just for the financial elite |url=https://newsroom.unsw.edu.au/news/business-law/vital-signs-swaps-options-and-other-derivatives-arent-just-financial-elite |access-date=2023-01-04 |website=UNSW Newsroom}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Roche |first=Julia La |title=Harvard Business School Reviewed One Of Kyle Bass' Most Bearish Trades |url=https://www.businessinsider.com/one-of-kyle-bass-big-trades-gets-reviewed-by-harvard-2012-4 |access-date=2023-01-04 |website=Business Insider |language=en-US}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=kmenke |date=2021-07-07 |title=Market Bubbles Aren’t Entirely Irrational Exuberance |url=https://anderson-review.ucla.edu/market-bubbles-arent-entirely-irrational-exuberance/ |access-date=2023-01-04 |website=UCLA Anderson Review |language=en-US}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book |last=Roncal |first=Jose D. |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=dq00jgGgo74C&pg=PA56&dq=robin+greenwood+harvard&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjbxdPN3qz8AhV7rZUCHQv0DpY4ChDoAXoECAIQAg |title=The Big Gamble: Are You Investing Or Speculating? |last2=Abbo |first2=Jose N. |date=2008-11 |publisher=Wheatmark, Inc. |isbn=978-1-60494-199-9 |language=en}}</ref> His work on “Bubbles for Fama”, which defined a crash as a 40% drop within a two-year period and set parameters for the odds of crashes relative to returns, has been frequently used looking at [[Tesla, Inc.|Tesla]] and [[Bitcoin]] as bubbles.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Hulbert |first=Mark |title=Bitcoin’s role in retirement portfolios |url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoins-role-in-retirement-portfolios-2021-02-26 |access-date=2023-01-04 |website=MarketWatch |language=EN-US |quote=In making this prediction I am following the lead of an academic study entitled “Bubbles for Fama,” which appeared several years ago in the Journal of Financial Economics. Its authors were Robin Greenwood, a finance and banking professor at Harvard Business School and chair of its Behavioral Finance and Financial Stability project}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Hulbert |first=Mark |title=How we know that Tesla is a bubble that is going to pop |url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-we-know-that-tesla-is-a-bubble-that-is-going-to-pop-2020-02-04 |access-date=2023-01-04 |website=MarketWatch |language=EN-US}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Hulbert |first=Mark |title=You shouldn’t believe all this talk about a stock-market bubble about to burst — here’s why |url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/you-shouldnt-believe-all-this-talk-about-a-stock-market-bubble-about-to-burst-heres-why-2020-11-03 |access-date=2023-01-04 |website=MarketWatch |language=EN-US}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=Bubbles for Fama |url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DG0CBa9L43w}}</ref> |
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Other work includes the role of institutional finance and the 'financialisation' of the economy, as well as private sector impacts on the economy.{{efn|Greenwood wrote an article on the impact of private sector reliance on short-term debt.}}<ref>{{Cite web |last=Bartlett |first=Bruce |date=2013-06-11 |title='Financialization' as a Cause of Economic Malaise |url=https://archive.nytimes.com/economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/06/11/financialization-as-a-cause-of-economic-malaise/ |access-date=2023-01-04 |website=Economix Blog |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=Can The Government Discourage Short-term Borrowing By The Private Sector? |url=https://www.forbesindia.com/article/harvard/can-the-government-discourage-shortterm-borrowing-by-the-private-sector/33076/1 |access-date=2023-01-04 |website=Forbes India |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=Was Unconventional Monetary Policy a Success? |url=https://www.chicagobooth.edu/review/was-unconventional-monetary-policy-success |access-date=2023-01-04 |website=The University of Chicago Booth School of Business |language=en}}</ref> For his work on an extrapolative capital asset pricing model, the Institute for Quantitative Research in Finance awarded him the [[Jack L. Treynor|Jack Treynor]] Prize in 2014.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Q Group - Jack Treynor Prize |url=https://www.q-group.org/Jack-Treynor-Prize |access-date=2023-01-04 |website=www.q-group.org}}</ref> |
Other work includes the role of institutional finance and the 'financialisation' of the economy, as well as private sector impacts on the economy.{{efn|Greenwood wrote an article on the impact of private sector reliance on short-term debt.}}<ref>{{Cite web |last=Bartlett |first=Bruce |date=2013-06-11 |title='Financialization' as a Cause of Economic Malaise |url=https://archive.nytimes.com/economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/06/11/financialization-as-a-cause-of-economic-malaise/ |access-date=2023-01-04 |website=Economix Blog |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=Can The Government Discourage Short-term Borrowing By The Private Sector? |url=https://www.forbesindia.com/article/harvard/can-the-government-discourage-shortterm-borrowing-by-the-private-sector/33076/1 |access-date=2023-01-04 |website=Forbes India |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=Was Unconventional Monetary Policy a Success? |url=https://www.chicagobooth.edu/review/was-unconventional-monetary-policy-success |access-date=2023-01-04 |website=The University of Chicago Booth School of Business |language=en}}</ref> For his work on an extrapolative capital asset pricing model, the Institute for Quantitative Research in Finance awarded him the [[Jack L. Treynor|Jack Treynor]] Prize in 2014.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Q Group - Jack Treynor Prize |url=https://www.q-group.org/Jack-Treynor-Prize |access-date=2023-01-04 |website=www.q-group.org}}</ref> |
Revision as of 01:38, 4 January 2023
Robin Greenwood | |
---|---|
Born | x x |
Academic career | |
Field | Financial economics, stock market, financial bubbles |
Institution | Harvard Business School |
Alma mater | Massachusetts Institute of Technology (B.S.) Harvard Business School (PHd.) |
Awards | Jack Treynor Prize |
Robin Greenwood (born x) is an American economist, and both the George Gund Professor of Finance and Banking and the Anne and James F. Rothenberg Faculty Fellow at Harvard Business School. He was formerly head of the school's finance unit, and chair of the Behavioral Finance and Financial Stability project. He also serves on the Financial Advisory Roundtable of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Greenwood is known for his work on behavioral and institutional finance, with a particular focus on "macro-level" market inefficiencies. Other research has included the predictability of stock market bubbles.
Academia
Greenwood received a B.S. in Economics and Mathematics at MIT in 1998, before receiving his Ph.D. from Harvard in Economics in 2003.[1][2] During his Ph.D., Greenwood spent time as a post-doctoral Fellow at Harvard Business School, before becoming an Assistant Professor of Business Administration there in 2003. He’s remained a member of the school’s faculty since, though was a Visiting Fellow at the London School of Economics in 2007, and a Schoen Scholar at Yale University in 2008. Greenwood became a full professor in 2012.[3][4] He also spent time, between 2018 and 2021, as head of the Finance Unit at Harvard Business School, and was formerly chair of the Business Economics PhD program.[1]
Greenwood is a member of the Financial Advisory Roundtable of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York alongside Viral Acharya, Thomas Philippon, John H. Cochrane, Jeremy C. Stein, Toni Whited and others, and serves as the Associate Editor of the Review of Financial Studies; a review he was formerly editor of.[1][5][6][7]
Research
'Bubbles for Fama'
Greenwood’s research focuses primarily on behavioural and institutional finance, with a specific view on macro-level market inefficiencies; notably monetary policy, stock price bubbles and predictable financial crises.[8][9][10][11][12][13] His work on “Bubbles for Fama”, which defined a crash as a 40% drop within a two-year period and set parameters for the odds of crashes relative to returns, has been frequently used looking at Tesla and Bitcoin as bubbles.[14][15][16][17]
Other work includes the role of institutional finance and the 'financialisation' of the economy, as well as private sector impacts on the economy.[a][18][19][20] For his work on an extrapolative capital asset pricing model, the Institute for Quantitative Research in Finance awarded him the Jack Treynor Prize in 2014.[21]
Behavioural Finance & Financial Stability
Greenwood also spent time as the faculty director of the Behavioural Finance and Financial Stability project at Harvard Business School. The project, launched in July 2016, focuses on how best to ensure the stability of the financial system, and Greenwood oversaw research on bank capital and liquidity management, on the nature of bank runs in the modern financial system, and on the unprecedented growth of the financial sector prior to the crisis;[22] the perspective noted that ‘that financial instability often follows periods when financial institutions, like investors and policy makers, have underestimated risks’.[23] Greenwood's later work in 'Predictable Financial Crises' concluded 'the combination of rapid credit growth and asset-price gains during the prior three years is associated with a 40 percent probability of entering a financial crisis within the next three years'.[24]
Retail investors
Greenwood's research has also focused on individual investors, as well as the rise of 'meme stocks' and impact of retail investors in buoying the American market in 2020-21 and research on the impact of COVID-19 on the economy.[25][26] His research noted that market speculation can flare with the combination of stimulus funds and retail investors.[27][28][29] Earlier work, alongside Nicholas Barberis and Andrei Shleifer linked bullishness to frequent extrapolation of results from recent returns, as well as observing the difficulty for individual investors in finding market-beating strategies.[30][31][32][33]
References
- ^ a b c "State Street Announces Partnerships with MIT's Antionette Schoar, Harvard's Robin Greenwood to Advance Cryptocurrency and Macroeconomic Research Initiatives". www.businesswire.com. 2021-11-17. Retrieved 2023-01-04.
- ^ Writer, Christina Pazzanese Harvard Staff (2020-04-27). "Shutdown threatens businesses, but reopening has its own challenges". Harvard Gazette. Retrieved 2023-01-04.
- ^ Materials, United States Congress House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure Subcommittee on Railroads, Pipelines, and Hazardous (2008). Investment in the Rail Industry: Hearing Before the Subcommittee on Railroads, Pipelines, and Hazardous Materials of the Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, House of Representatives, One Hundred Tenth Congress, Second Session, March 5, 2008. U.S. Government Printing Office. p. 37. ISBN 978-0-16-083585-8.
And our final panelist is Mr. Robin Greenwood , Assistant Professor at the Harvard Business School .
{{cite book}}
: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - ^ Kinlaw, William; Kritzman, Mark P.; Turkington, David (2021-07-27). Asset Allocation: From Theory to Practice and Beyond. John Wiley & Sons. ISBN 978-1-119-81771-0.
- ^ "Financial Advisory Roundtable - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK". www.newyorkfed.org. Retrieved 2023-01-04.
- ^ "Robin Greenwood in Reuters – The Review of Financial Studies". Retrieved 2023-01-04.
RFS Editor Robin Greenwood's paper is featured in Reuters in a piece titled, "Fed should keep trillions in bonds to provide stability: paper."
- ^ "Fed should keep trillions in bonds to provide stability: paper". Reuters. 2016-08-27. Retrieved 2023-01-04.
- ^ Writer, Christina Pazzanese Harvard Staff (2018-02-06). "Harvard Business School's Robin Greenwood discusses the stock market plunge". Harvard Gazette. Retrieved 2023-01-04.
The things I've worked on have been investor expectations, measurement of bubbles, and things like that. We did some work on trying to predict the end of bubbles.
- ^ "Energy stocks are in a bubble — and here's when they're likely to crash". MSN. Retrieved 2023-01-04.
The researchers found that the probability of a market sector crashing — defined as a drop of at least 40% over the subsequent two years — was correlated with its trailing two-year performance relative to the overall market.
- ^ "Vital Signs: swaps, options and other derivatives aren't just for the financial elite". UNSW Newsroom. 2021-04-06. Retrieved 2023-01-04.
- ^ Roche, Julia La. "Harvard Business School Reviewed One Of Kyle Bass' Most Bearish Trades". Business Insider. Retrieved 2023-01-04.
- ^ kmenke (2021-07-07). "Market Bubbles Aren't Entirely Irrational Exuberance". UCLA Anderson Review. Retrieved 2023-01-04.
- ^ Roncal, Jose D.; Abbo, Jose N. (2008-11). The Big Gamble: Are You Investing Or Speculating?. Wheatmark, Inc. ISBN 978-1-60494-199-9.
{{cite book}}
: Check date values in:|date=
(help) - ^ Hulbert, Mark. "Bitcoin's role in retirement portfolios". MarketWatch. Retrieved 2023-01-04.
In making this prediction I am following the lead of an academic study entitled "Bubbles for Fama," which appeared several years ago in the Journal of Financial Economics. Its authors were Robin Greenwood, a finance and banking professor at Harvard Business School and chair of its Behavioral Finance and Financial Stability project
- ^ Hulbert, Mark. "How we know that Tesla is a bubble that is going to pop". MarketWatch. Retrieved 2023-01-04.
- ^ Hulbert, Mark. "You shouldn't believe all this talk about a stock-market bubble about to burst — here's why". MarketWatch. Retrieved 2023-01-04.
- ^ "Bubbles for Fama".
- ^ Bartlett, Bruce (2013-06-11). "'Financialization' as a Cause of Economic Malaise". Economix Blog. Retrieved 2023-01-04.
- ^ "Can The Government Discourage Short-term Borrowing By The Private Sector?". Forbes India. Retrieved 2023-01-04.
- ^ "Was Unconventional Monetary Policy a Success?". The University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Retrieved 2023-01-04.
- ^ "Q Group - Jack Treynor Prize". www.q-group.org. Retrieved 2023-01-04.
- ^ "About - Behavioral Finance & Financial Stability - Harvard Business School". www.hbs.edu. Retrieved 2023-01-04.
- ^ "Financial Meltdowns Are More Predictable Than We Thought". HBS Working Knowledge. 2020-09-24. Retrieved 2023-01-04.
- ^ Shaw, Jonathan (2020-12-07). "Can Financial Crises Be Predicted?". Harvard Magazine. Retrieved 2023-01-04.
"That's an enormous number," notes Gund professor of finance and banking Robin Greenwood. And that risk compares to just a 7 percent probability in normal times. The association just "jumps out at you. You don't have to do any fancy analysis to uncover it," adds Greenwood, who is coauthor of the Harvard Business School (HBS) working paper, "Predictable Financial Crises,"
- ^ "Sizing up corporate restructuring in the COVID crisis". Brookings.
- ^ "Pandemic fallout is about to overwhelm the bankruptcy system and hit small businesses hardest". Fortune. Retrieved 2023-01-04.
- ^ "Did Pandemic Stimulus Funds Spur the Rise of 'Meme Stocks'?". HBS Working Knowledge. 2022-07-21. Retrieved 2023-01-04.
- ^ "Stimulus cheques have buoyed America's stockmarket". The Economist. ISSN 0013-0613. Retrieved 2023-01-04.
- ^ Hernandez Barcena, Lorena; Milstein, Eric; Wessel, David. "Hutchins Roundup: Tuition increases, stimulus checks, and more". Hutchins Roundup.
The federal Economic Impact Payments distributed during the pandemic were followed by increases in retail trading and the share prices of retail-dominated portfolios, find Robin Greenwood of Harvard Business School and Toomas Laarits and Jeffrey Wurgler of NYU Stern.
- ^ Plender, John (2015-07-28). Capitalism: Money, Morals and Markets. Biteback Publishing. ISBN 978-1-84954-957-8.
Yet there is now academic evidence from Robin Greenwood and Andrei Shleifer at Harvard University that when markets are close to their peak, investors are most bullish because they tend to extrapolate recent rises in prices into the ...
- ^ "Are Investors Chronically Pessimistic?". The University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Retrieved 2023-01-04.
- ^ Shiller, Robert J. (2018-10-12). "Why Our Beliefs Don't Predict Much About the Economy". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2023-01-04.
- ^ Hulbert, Mark. "This can't-miss stock trading strategy has disappeared -- and isn't coming back". MarketWatch. Retrieved 2023-01-04.
The takeaway, Greenwood told me, is that market-beating strategies don't last forever. Because the index effect used to be large and predictable, it was inevitable that Wall Street would eventually discover it and, in the process, kill the goose laying the golden egg. He and his-co-author write: "The decline of the index effect is much like the evidence for other anomalies [patterns that can be profitably exploited], that they decline once they are well recognized by the market."
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