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| image9 = Fumio Kishida and Prayut Chan-o-cha at the Prime Minister's Office 2022 (1) (cropped).jpg
| image8 = Fumio Kishida and Prayut Chan-o-cha at the Prime Minister's Office 2022 (1) (cropped).jpg
| party9 = [[United Thai Nation Party|United Thai Nation]]
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| image8 = Sudarat Keyuraphan in 2019.png
| party8 = [[Thai Sang Thai Party|Thai Sang Thai]]
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| candidate8 = [[Prayut Chan-o-cha]]
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}}{{Politics of Thailand}}
}}{{Politics of Thailand}}



Revision as of 11:19, 17 February 2023

2023 Thai general election

← 2019 7 May 2023[1][2]

All 500 seats in the House of Representatives
251 seats needed for a majority
  File:Paethongtarn in Jan 2023.jpg
Candidate Prawit Wongsuwan Paethongtarn Shinawatra[3] Pita Limjaroenrat
Party Palang Pracharat Pheu Thai Move Forward
Last election 23.34%, 116 seats 21.92%, 136 seats 17.34%, 81 seats[a]
Current seats 99 119 50
Seats needed Increase 152 Increase 131 Increase 201

  File:Seri 2019.jpg
Candidate Jurin Laksanawisit Anutin Charnvirakul Sereepisuth Temeeyaves
Party Democrat Bhumjaithai Thai Liberal
Last election 10.92%, 53 seats 10.33%, 51 seats 2.29%, 10 seats
Current seats 52 64 11
Seats needed Increase 199 Increase 187 Increase 240

  File:86 ปีประชาธิปไตยไทย Voicetv (3) (cropped).jpg
Candidate Varawut Silpa-archa Prayut Chan-o-cha Sudarat Keyuraphan
Party Chartthaipattana United Thai Nation Thai Sang Thai
Last election 2.16%, 10 seats
Current seats 12 1[4] 0
Seats needed Increase 239 Increase 251 Increase 250

Incumbent Prime Minister

Prayut Chan-o-cha
United Thai Nation



General elections are expected to be held in Thailand on 7 May 2023, after the 25th House of Representatives reaches its four-year term limit.

Background

Following a political crisis in Thailand, the military staged a coup d'état in 2014, ousting the civilian caretaker government. The military junta, known as the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), rose to power under the leadership of Prayut Chan-o-cha as Prime Minister. In 2016, the NCPO completed the drafting of a new constitution and held a referendum to approve it. They banned criticism of the draft constitution and prohibited monitoring of the referendum. Activists against the document were arrested, detained, and prosecuted in military courts,[5] whilst voters who expressed their intention to vote against the draft were also arrested and prosecuted by the military regime.[6]

In 2019, after numerous delays, the junta finally held a general election on March 24. The elections were seen as a skewed race in which Prayut had an unfair advantage, with the senate wholly appointed by the junta and the constituencies redrawn last-minute.[7][8] After the election, the pro-junta Palang Pracharath party formed a coalition government, with Prayut selected by the parliament for another term as Prime Minister.

Prayut began his second term as Prime Minister on 9 June 2019.[9] According to the current constitution, a Prime Minister can only serve for a maximum of 8 years. However, the end of Prayut's term as the prime minister of Thailand is disputed, since there are many interpretations about the beginning of his term.[10][11][12] On 30 September 2022, the Constitutional Court finally ruled that Prayut's term began in 2017 along with the new constitution, meaning that he may serve as the prime minister until 2025, if he is selected by the parliament again.

At the end of 2022 saw the split in the ruling Palang Pracharath Party between Prayut and his close associate Prawit Wongsuwan, after the latter showed accommodation towards the main opposition Pheu Thai Party. Prayut was expected to join the new United Thai Nation Party along with his loyalists in the Palang Pracharath Party.[13] Forty politicians, including 34 incumbent MPs from both coalition and opposition camps, also resigned from their parties to join Bhumjaithai Party to increase their winning chances in this election.[14] On 23 December 2022, Prayut announced his intention to apply for membership of the United Thai Nation Party, as well as becoming the party's sole prime ministerial candidate.[15]

Uncertainty

In September 2022, a cabinet minister, Chaiwut Thanakamanusorn, warned protesters, saying, "if you protest a lot, be careful, you might not get your election."[16]

Although elections are mandated by the constitution, many Thai elections have been delayed or annulled in the past.

In the run-up to the previous election in 2019, the then ruling junta delayed the election announcement multiple times before settling on the final date.

Electoral system

Unlike the preceding 2019 election, which used a form of mixed-member proportional representation with 350 constituency seats and the remaining 150 being levelling seats, the electoral system was changed in a 2021 amendment of the constitution which restored the pre-2017 parallel voting system and removed the proportional representation mechanism.

Of the 500 members of the House of Representatives to be elected, 400 seats are elected from single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post voting (an increase of 50), and 100 party-list seats—filled separately and no longer serving as levelling seats—are voted on in a separate ballot (unlike in the 2019 election, where only one vote was cast by each voter to determine both constituency and levelling seats).[17] The change was criticised by smaller parties as the system benefits larger parties—especially the ruling Palang Pracharath Party and the main opposition party Pheu Thai, who both supported the amendment—at the expense of smaller ones, including the progressive Move Forward Party, whose predecessor Future Forward performed successfully in 2019 thanks to the proportional representation system.[18]

Prime ministerial candidates

Typically in parliamentary systems, the prime minister can be any member of parliament. However, under the 2017 Thai constitution, prime ministers may only be chosen from a pre-declared list of candidates. Each party may submit up to three names and must have at least 25 members in the House of Representatives to receive eligibility. Candidates do not have to be members of parliament.

Parliament's vote for Prime Minister will take place in a joint session with the 250-seat senate appointed by the junta, according to the constitution's provisional terms. In 2019, all the senators unanimously voted for then junta leader, Prayut Chan-o-cha.[19]

As the term of the NCPO-appointed senate lasts until 2024, it is expected to exert influence into this election as well.[20]

2022 redistribution of seats

Due to the increase of the number of members of the House of Representatives elected from single-member constituencies from 350 to 400, a redistribution of seats and redrawing of electoral boundaries was required. On 1 February 2022, the Election Commission announced its calculations that, from the total registered population of 66,171,439 as of 31 December 2021, there must be 1 member per 165,429 people. This distribution is subject to the approval of the organic law bills currently being considered by the National Assembly.[21]

The provisional number of members of the House of Representatives to be elected from single-member constituences in each province are as follows:

Province MPs per province
Bangkok 33
Nakhon Ratchasima 16
Khon Kaen, Chiang Mai, Ubon Ratchathani 11
Chon Buri, Buriram 10
Nakhon Si Thammarat, Sisaket, Songkhla, Udon Thani 9
Chiang Rai, Nonthaburi, Roi Et, Samut Prakan, Surin 8
Chaiyaphum, Pathum Thani, Sakon Nakhon, Surat Thani 7
Kalasin, Nakhon Pathom, Nakhon Sawan, Phetchabun, Maha Sarakham 6
Kanchanaburi, Narathiwat, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Phitsanulok, Rayong, Ratchaburi, Suphan Buri 5
Kamphaeng Phet, Chachoengsao, Trang, Tak, Nakhon Phanom, Pattani, Lop Buri, Lampang, Loei, Samut Sakhon, Sara Buri, Sukhothai 4
Krabi, Chanthaburi, Chumphon, Nan, Bueng Kan, Prachuap Khiri Khan, Prachin Buri, Phayao, Phatthalung, Phichit, Phetchaburi, Phrae, Phuket, Yasothon, Yala, Sa Kaeo, Nong Khai, Nong Bua Lamphu, Uttaradit 3
Chai Nat, Nakhon Nayok, Phang Nga, Mukdahan, Mae Hong Son, Lamphun, Satun, Ang Thong, Amnat Charoen, Uthai Thani 2
Trat, Ranong, Samut Songkhram, Sing Buri 1
Total 400

Opinion polls

Preferred party

Fieldwork date(s) Polling firm Sample Palang Pracharath Pheu Thai Move Forward Democrat Bhumjaithai Thai Liberal Chat Thai Phattana Chart Pattana Kla Kla Thai Sang Thai United Thai Nation No party
Undecided
Others Lead
17 – 22 December 2022 NIDA 2,000 4.00% 42.95% 16.60% 5.35% 5.25% 3.40% 1.35% 3.25% 6.95% 8.30% 2.60% 26.35%
15 – 21 September 2022 NIDA 2,500 5.56% 34.44% 13.56% 7.56% 2.32% 2.56% 1.00% 3.04% 24.00% 5.96% 20.88%
20 – 23 June 2022 NIDA 2,500 7.00% 36.36% 17.88% 6.32% 2.56% 3.04% 2.68% 2.96% 18.68% 2.52% 18.48%
10 – 15 March 2022 NIDA 2,020 7.03% 25.89% 16.24% 7.97% 1.88% 2.28% 1.83% 2.18% 28.86% 5.84% 2.97%
15 – 21 December 2021 NIDA 2,504 8.99% 23.52% 13.18% 7.15% 1.32% 2.43% 1.08% 1.60% 37.14% 3.59% 13.62%
20 – 23 September 2021 NIDA 2,018 9.51% 22.50% 15.11% 7.78% 1.14% 2.68% 1.39% 1.93% 30.82% 7.14% 8.32%
11 – 16 June 2021 NIDA 2,515 10.70% 19.48% 14.51% 9.54% 2.43% 2.90% 1.71% 2.47% 32.68% 3.58% 13.20%
23 – 26 March 2021 NIDA 2,522 16.65% 22.13% 13.48% 7.10% 3.25% 3.81% 1.03% 29.82% 2.73% 7.69%
20 – 23 December 2020 NIDA 2,533 17.80% 23.61% 14.92% 7.46% 1.82% 3.00% 0.55% 0.24% 0.95% 26.49% 3.16% 2.88%
18 – 23 September 2020 NIDA 2,527 12.39% 19.39% 12.70% 7.44% 1.58% 1.70% 0.36% 0.28% 0.79% 41.59% 2.14% 22.20%
22 – 24 June 2020 NIDA 2,517 15.73% 20.70% 13.47% 7.75% 1.43% 2.50% 0.36% 0.11% 1.11% 32.38% 4.46% 11.68%
18 – 20 December 2019 NIDA 2,511 16.69% 19.95% 30.27% 10.83% 2.43% 2.03% 0.92% 13.46% 3.42% 10.32%
24 March 2019 2019 election 23.34% 21.92% 17.34%[a] 10.92% 10.33% 2.29% 2.16% 0.70% 1.68% 9.32% 1.46%

Preferred Prime Minister

Fieldwork date(s) Polling firm Sample Prayut Korn Paethongtarn Sudarat Pita Sereepisuth No Preference Others Lead
17 – 22 December 2022 NIDA 2,000 14.05% 2.65% 34% 6.45% 13.25% 6% 8.25% 15.35% 19.95%
15 – 21 September 2022 NIDA 2,500 10.12% 2.12% 21.60% 9.12% 10.56% 6.28% 24.16% 11.96% 2.56%
20 – 23 June 2022 NIDA 2,500 11.68% 3.76% 25.28% 6.80% 13.24% 6.60% 18.68% 13.96% 12.04%
10 – 15 March 2022 NIDA 2,020 12.67% 2.77% 12.53% 8.22% 13.42% 7.03% 27.62% 15.74% 11.88%
15 – 21 December 2021 NIDA 2,504 16.93% 2.36% 10.55% 5.51% 10.74% 4.83% 36.54% 23.09% 13.45%
25 – 28 October 2021 Suan Dusit 1,186 21.27% 19.35% 28.67% 15.78% 7.4%
20 – 23 September 2021 NIDA 2,018 17.54% 2.58% 11.15% 11.05% 9.07% 32.61% 16.00% 15.07%
11 – 16 June 2021 NIDA 2,515 19.32% 3.62% 13.64% 5.45% 8.71% 37.65% 11.61% 18.33%
23 – 26 March 2021 NIDA 2,522 28.79% 2.70% 12.09% 6.26% 8.72% 30.10% 41.44% 16.70%
20 – 23 December 2020 NIDA 2,533 30.32% 1.65% 13.46% 7.74% 7.50% 32.10% 39.33% 16.86%
18 – 23 September 2020 NIDA 2,527 18.64% 1.54% 10.57% 5.70% 3.92% 54.13% 5.50% 8.07%
22 – 24 June 2020 NIDA 2,517 25.47% 1.67% 8.07% 3.93% 4.57% 44.06% 12.23% 17.40%
Fieldwork date(s) Polling firm Sample Prayut Jurin Abhisit Sudarat Thanathorn Sereepisuth No Preference Others Lead
18 – 20 December 2019 NIDA 2,511 23.74% 2.47% 0.67% 11.95% 31.42% 3.90% 17.32% 9.20% 7.68%

Notes

  1. ^ a b As Future Forward Party, Move Forward Party's de facto predecessor

References

  1. ^ "Thailand sets May 7, 2023 as the tentative date of next general election".
  2. ^ "Election Commission sets May 7 as date for next general election". Bangkok Post.
  3. ^ "Pheu Thai Party names 'Ung-ing' as PM candidate". Bangkok Post. Retrieved 31 December 2022.
  4. ^ "'บุญญาพร นาตะธนภัทร' ส.ส. คนแรกของรวมไทยสร้างชาติ หลังถูกขับจากพรรครวมแผ่นดิน". THE STANDARD (in Thai). 30 January 2023. Retrieved 16 February 2023.
  5. ^ "Thailand: Junta Bans Referendum Monitoring". Human Rights Watch. New York: Human Rights Watch. 21 June 2016. Retrieved 5 July 2016.
  6. ^ "ทนายดังมอบตัวสู้คดีทำผิด พ.ร.บ. ออกเสียงประชามติ". Matichon Online (in Thai). Bangkok: มติชน [th]. 17 July 2016. Archived from the original on 19 July 2016. Retrieved 17 July 2016.
  7. ^ "Thai Senate to be appointed at junta's behest". Nikkei Asia. Retrieved 18 March 2022.
  8. ^ Rojanaphruk, Pravit; Writer, Senior Staff (30 November 2018). "Parties Fume Over New 'Gerrymandered' Electoral Map". Khaosod English. Retrieved 17 March 2022.
  9. ^ "Prayut counts on his allies". Bangkok Post. Retrieved 18 March 2022.
  10. ^ "PM defies efforts to oust him from office". Bangkok Post. Retrieved 8 May 2022.
  11. ^ Rojanaphruk, Pravit; Writer, Senior Staff (30 December 2021). "Prawit Says He's Willing to Serve With Prayut Till '2027'". Khaosod English. Retrieved 18 March 2022.
  12. ^ Ltd.Thailand, VOICE TV (29 December 2021). "ฝ่าย ก.ม. ชี้วาระ 8 ปี 'ประยุทธ์' ลากยาวได้ถึงปี 2570". VoiceTV (in Thai). Retrieved 18 March 2022.
  13. ^ "Thai Political Parties: No Eternal Allies, No Perpetual Enemies". The Diplomat. Retrieved 21 December 2022.
  14. ^ "Former MPs jump ship, join Bhumjaithai". Bangkok Post. Retrieved 21 December 2022.
  15. ^ isarin (23 December 2022). "ด่วน ประยุทธ์ ประกาศสมัครสมาชิกพรรครวมไทยสร้างชาติ". ประชาชาติธุรกิจ (in Thai). Retrieved 23 December 2022.
  16. ^ ""ถ้าเคลื่อนไหวมาก ระวังจะไม่ได้เลือกตั้ง" ชัยวุฒิเตือนม็อบเคลื่อนไหว วันศาล รธน. อ่านคำวินิจฉัยปม 8 ปี นายกฯ". THE STANDARD (in Thai). 24 September 2022. Retrieved 27 January 2023.
  17. ^ "Thai Parliament passes election changes favouring ruling party". The Business Times. 10 September 2021. Retrieved 26 June 2020.
  18. ^ Yuda, Masayuki (16 September 2021). "Thai ruling party irks progressives with electoral tweaks". Nikkei Asia. Retrieved 23 November 2022.
  19. ^ "Thailand's military-backed PM voted in after junta creates loose coalition". the Guardian. 5 June 2019. Retrieved 27 January 2023.
  20. ^ Thongnoi, Jitsiree; Jaipragas, Bhavan (22 March 2019). "Thai election a battle royale for junta's Prayuth and the Shinawatras". South China Morning Post. Retrieved 26 June 2020.
  21. ^ "เปิดจำนวน ส.ส. 400 เขตเลือกตั้งใหม่ กทม.ยังมากสุด 33 คน". workpointTODAY (in Thai). Retrieved 23 October 2022.