Talk:2024 United States presidential election

RfC: Polling criteria for “major candidate” status

The current consensus for being considered a “major candidate” for this article and listed in the table is a candidate must meet one of the following criteria: being listed in 5 national polls, substantial media coverage, or holding significant elected office. Should the polling criteria remain? Now that the first Republican debate took place, I feel it is appropriate to revisit this question. Prcc27 (talk) 04:17, 24 August 2023 (UTC)

• No: The polling criteria has forced us to give undue weight to candidates with minimal media coverage. Even though I thought the polling criteria was flawed, I previously argued that it would be unfair to remove the criteria right after someone (Perry Johnson) qualified, so I said let’s at least keep him as a “major” candidate and see if he qualifies for the debates. After all, polling could be an indicator of whether one will or will not qualify for a debate. Given that the GOP actually has polling as one of their criteria for qualifying for the debates, I think that our polling criteria is obsolete. The new criteria should be substantial media coverage, holding significant elected office, or having qualified for at least 1 party sanctioned debate. Prcc27 (talk) 04:28, 24 August 2023 (UTC)

  The problem with your criteria is that candidates like Hurd, Elder and Suarez would be included in the same section as candidates like John Anthony Castro and Steve Laffey who are vastly less notable than Hurd, Elder and Suarez. Yes, all of the three are vastly less notable Trump and maybe even DeSantis, but this will make them a lot less notable than they actually are Punker85 (talk) 16:46, 24 August 2023 (UTC)

  Not true. A candidate would only have to meet one of the criteria. Elder, Hurd, and Suarez already meet the “substantial media coverage” criterion, and their status as “major candidates” would be unaffected by this change. In fact, Perry Johnson may even qualify as a “major” candidate, even without the polling criteria if he has enough media coverage. Prcc27 (talk) 17:55, 24 August 2023 (UTC)

  Ah yes, you are right, I'm dumb

  But also, having enough media coverage is a very vague criteria, so it would be very difficult to admit someone who doesn't an obviously big media coverage Punker85 (talk) 19:15, 24 August 2023 (UTC)

• Yes: For a few reasons. First, changing the criteria mid election cycle will encourage editors to try and change the criteria when they don't like it's application. Then we get a lot of RFCs. We need to have an RFC after the cycle to discuss tightening our criteria, not multiple throughout the cycle. Second, it's not WP:UNDUE to mention the fact the candidates ran and tried to make it to the debates. There was a lot of national coverage of it. Remember the major candidates are just people that ran a notable campaign, it's not meant to be a list of the only candidates with a shot of winning. Finally, candidates are going to start dropping out over the next few months so it will naturally narrow down, we don't need to narrow our criteria. The field will narrow itself. TulsaPoliticsFan (talk) 04:51, 24 August 2023 (UTC)

Consensus can change. I agree, it would have been wrong to change the criteria a while back, but the election cycle changes, and our article should as well to reflect the reality of who is and isn’t a “major” candidate. If it wasn’t clear then that some of these candidates aren’t major candidates, it should be crystal clear now. It is undue, because we are treating candidates as “major” when most reliable sources do not agree with our assessment. It is pretty telling that two of the candidates that qualified under the polling criteria were obvious outliers even by Wikipedia standards (e.g. Perry Johnson did not have a portrait on our article for a significant amount of time, and Ryan Binkley did not have a Wikipedia article until a few days ago). “The field will narrow itself” is irrelevant. We will likely have a section for candidates that withdraw, and only candidates that are actually major should get a portrait in that section, if a gallery is included in that section. Prcc27 (talk) 05:35, 24 August 2023 (UTC)

The Johnson portrait and Binkley arguments are two WP:OTHERCONTENT arguments. Johnson not having a copyright free photo available had nothing to do with whether or not he is a major candidate. On the Binkley argument, the standards for being a notable political candidate and general notability guidelines are different. Binkley had an article, but it was AFDed and deleted. Both arguments are WP:OTHERCONTENT, that don't focus on the sources, but other stuff internal to Wikipedia. Sometimes you're just missing a photo or someone you want to link just isn't notable enough for their own article when you're editing on Wikipedia. Those things just happen on here sometimes. TulsaPoliticsFan (talk) 05:49, 24 August 2023 (UTC)

The “othercontent” essay aside, “coincidence” or not, the candidates that have qualified under the polling criteria have been outliers when it comes to media coverage when compared to the other candidates currently listed as “major”. Is there any reliable source that considers those two candidates to be “major” or at least treats them as serious candidates? Prcc27 (talk) 06:00, 24 August 2023 (UTC)

Politico includes them both in their rundown of campaigns seriously trying to make the debate. There are sources on both campaigns and they both tried to seriously run. Johnson is honestly probably getting more coverage than Will Hurd and maybe even Larry Elder at this point. Binkley would be the absolute lowest tier candidate of the majors, but he does appear to be running a major campaign compared to the candidates in our minor candidates section. TulsaPoliticsFan (talk) 06:18, 24 August 2023 (UTC)

If Perry Johnson is getting substantial media coverage, then obviously he would get to stay in the table. I am fine with that, but the polling criteria is problematic. Unfortunately, I suspect part of the reason he is getting more coverage is because he was included in our table on Wikipedia. I hope I’m wrong, but it is possible. Prcc27 (talk) 16:22, 24 August 2023 (UTC)

According to the views of his page, it went up by a lot when he was included in the table but was strangely at 0 before that and, according to Google trends, his inclusion seems to had little to no impact Punker85 (talk) 17:06, 24 August 2023 (UTC)

The BBC, Vox and maybe Axios considered both of them as "major"

CNN, NBC News and the Associated Press considered Johnson as "major" Punker85 (talk) 15:27, 24 August 2023 (UTC)

The CNN one is debatable.. Those are candidates listed in the “poll of polls”. It means those candidates are included in polls, which obviously isn’t surprising because they did meet our current polling criteria. It does not necessarily mean that they are considered “major” by CNN. Prcc27 (talk) 16:15, 24 August 2023 (UTC)

• Yes but a very unenthusiastic yes from me. I was a proponent of the 5-poll criterion, and I don't believe in manipulating the criteria during the campaign in order to include or exclude specific candidates from the "major" category. But I would not support a 5-poll criterion for future campaigns since it allowed Perry Johnson and Ryan Binkley to be categorized as major candidates, which I would consider a failure of the criterion. --Metropolitan90 (talk) 15:54, 24 August 2023 (UTC)

  I totally respect your perspective, but just want to offer a counter perspective that the criterion worked well in regards to Johnson and Binkley. If you look at a lot of the media coverage leading up to the debate, I don't think it's wrong to say Johnson was a major candidate during the summer of 2023 while pushing to make the debate stage. Binkley was a major candidate for a few weeks as he pushed for donations and polling to make the debate stage. Are these campaigns historic? Not in the slightest, but there is enough coverage to meet verifiable requirements without original research. There's not a neutral point of view or WP:UNDUE problem with mentioning the fact their campaigns happened and briefly were discussed in good sources. They aren't getting paragraph's of texts like Biden, Trump, or Desantis. They're getting sentences, mentions, and table summaries, which the coverage warrants. TulsaPoliticsFan (talk) 19:29, 24 August 2023 (UTC)

  The requirement should be media coverage, full stop. Even if the current candidates that qualified by polling have significant media coverage (that’s debatable) that doesn’t change the fact that someone else with little to no media coverage could be listed in 5 national polls in the near future, and we would be forced to call them “major candidates”. If Binkley and Johnson already have substantial media coverage, there shouldn’t be an issue with removing the polling requirement. Prcc27 (talk) 19:47, 24 August 2023 (UTC)

  In theory, I fully agree with you; but in practice we almost never agree on what substantial media coverage means. Check the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries talk archives if you don't believe me. People have argued things from 5 to 20 sources and there's no consensus on what it means. It's too ambiguous. We need some objective criteria to help ground our discussions or we'll have endless debates on what constitutes substantial media coverage. TulsaPoliticsFan (talk) 19:58, 24 August 2023 (UTC)

  If we want to define what “substantial media coverage” is, by all means, let’s have that discussion. That is not what this RfC is about, however. “5 national polls” is not an objective criteria, and there is also debate on what that actually means. Does that mean 5 different pollsters, or can all 5 polls be from Gallup and you qualify? What about polls affiliated with a candidate, are those included or excluded? Which polls are reliable and which ones should be excluded? Should you at least have to poll at 1%, or is simply being included in a poll all that matters? Prcc27 (talk) 21:42, 24 August 2023 (UTC)

  The Plain language reading is pretty clear and objective: 5 national polls. Any national poll from a source that would be a WP:RS (because our general content policies still apply). I think I advocated for adding independent the last time we talked about it, but I think people thought the RS policy would keep out affiliated polling. But to answer you're questions:

  • 5 polls from Gallup or Morning Consul would qualify you (this did not happen, and is hypothetical strawman)
  • Polls affiliated with a candidate would not meet WP:RS and be excluded.
  • Polls that qualify as WP:RS.
  • Being included is the metric.

  TulsaPoliticsFan (talk) 22:13, 24 August 2023 (UTC)

  It is not a hypothetical strawman. I am relaying the concerns another user made, when Perry Johnson qualified with 5 polls, but some of them were from the same pollster. A user suggested the criterion should be 5 different polls. The point is, there is disagreement on what the 5 national polls criteria means or should entail. The “substantial media coverage” criterion is not the only one being disputed, so let’s not pretend that it is. Prcc27 (talk) 22:44, 24 August 2023 (UTC)

• No Five polls might even be too little. The whole point of separating out the major from the minor candidates is so that Wikipedia doesn't put undue weight on people who have no chance to even compete. If they can't even muster a consistent, above zero, presence on the polls, why should they be counted as a major candidate? Scu ba (talk) 02:12, 26 August 2023 (UTC)

  @Scu ba I’m confused. So do you support the current 5 poll criteria or oppose it? Or are you saying it should be changed/modified..? Under the current criteria, a candidate can poll at 0% in 5 nationals polls, and we would be forced to call that candidate “major”, even if they have not polled at 1% in any polls. “If they can't even muster a consistent, above zero, presence on the polls, why should they be counted as a major candidate?” That sentence would make sense, if the inclusion requirement was you have to have substantial media coverage and be included in 5 polls. But currently, the criteria is you have to have substantial media coverage or be included in 5 polls; you don’t have to meet both criteria. I wouldn’t have a problem with the criteria if you had to meet the polling requirement and another criterion; but calling someone “major” with hardly any media coverage just because they were included in 5 polls is problematic. As I said before, qualifying for a debate should suffice, especially since on the Republican side, you already have to meet a polling threshold in order to qualify. Prcc27 (talk) 15:11, 26 August 2023 (UTC)

  As it stands now, I support the 5 poll criteria because that is the agreed upon consensus. Am I absolutely thrilled about it? No. I am fine with the Five Polls or Significant Media, sorry if that was confusing. The only qualm I have with the debate criteria being Wikipedia's criteria is that is a little too stringent, namely because it doesn't take into consideration Hurd or Suraez who I feel like are the "major minor candidates" Scu ba (talk) 20:43, 26 August 2023 (UTC)

  Thank you for clarifying. Hurd and Suarez already meet the “substantial media coverage” criterion, so if a debate requirement replaced a polling requirement– they would still be able to continue to remain in the table. Prcc27 (talk) 00:29, 27 August 2023 (UTC)

  @Scu ba: Did you change your !vote from “yes” to “no”? Just want to make sure it is clear. Prcc27 (talk) 20:47, 1 September 2023 (UTC)

  Yes, I misread what the question was asking. I thought Yes was to change the polling criteria. Scu ba (talk) 21:09, 1 September 2023 (UTC)

• No This idea requiring being seen in a national poll is biased. It is already known that those who do make the national polls, only put candidate names that they think have a chance to win, thus the reason behind the 'Others' listing. By putting this as a rule here, it would just carry over that specific bias, where the norm for Wikipedia is to be unbiased when ever possible. Aceing_Winter_Snows_Harsh_Cold (talk) 03:51, 27 August 2023 (UTC)

  Isn't that the whole point? The only candidates that should be listed as major are the ones that "have a chance to win" Scu ba (talk) 15:14, 30 August 2023 (UTC)

• Yes for prominently featured candidates. Five national polls could be too high of a requirement, or it could be too low. I don't know for sure. Maybe the criteria should be limiting the prominently featured candidates to ones covered in polls, provided that such polls have at least one from a left-leaning polling agency and one from a right-leaning polling agency just an idea. For bullet-listed candidates with a single sentence, I'm more open to allowing other candidates, but this guideline should only apply to independent candidates. More niche Republicans and Democrats should be placed into their own parties' primaries and caucuses articles. InvadingInvader (userpage, talk) 18:24, 31 August 2023 (UTC)

• Yes The current criteria to be considered a major candidate is not broken and it shouldn't be fixed mid-election cycle. Per InvadingInvader and TulsaPoliticsFan points. As the primaries continue, the field will narrow down and secondly I believe to be a major candidate here on enwiki doesn't mean they have a shot of winning/are longshots, it's the fact they ran a somewhat notable campaign and met certain requirements either polling or media coverage. I also believe it is not biased to be included in the national poll to be considered a major candidate either. If your name appears on a national poll (either polling at 0% or 1% or 15%) I think you're still a major candidate as your name is being mentioned in the poll in the first place. I do firmly believe that Johnson/Binkley are considered major candidates (let's face it this argument has started because we've considered them major per this criterion) and excluding them/considering redoing our major candidates criteria is a bit bias and unfair. Further more by having the polling criterion remain, it can also clear some disputes if a candidate is major enough. We can have candidates who have had major media coverage but there would still be some disputes about their status as a major candidate, so by having the 5 polling requirement would help create less confusion/debate about a candidate's major status. --TDKR Chicago 101 (talk) 18:48, 31 August 2023 (UTC)

• No There's no reason candidates who've got no national presence like Perry Johnson and Ryan Binkley, and with very little actual media coverage should be included in the "major candidates" section alongside names such as Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump. Expoe34 (talk) 16:12, 1 September 2023 (UTC)

• No Binkley is just not a major or noteworthy candidate. The criteria should be adapted in some way that will remove him, so I guess this will have to do. BottleOfChocolateMilk (talk) 18:47, 11 September 2023 (UTC)

• No: Mainly per rationale given by Prcc27 above, the current polling criteria should not remain. It has now become clear that this was a misguided inclusion requirement that has led to giving undue weight to clearly minor candidates. The next best option to scrapping the polling standard altogether (which I would support) is to amend it to mean 5 (or more) different credible polling outlets (those that would pass WP:RS criteria) and require a minimum of, say, 1% in all 5 (or more) or average that percentage in 5 (or more) different polling outlets combined (as verified in reliable sources, of course). It is much likely that a candidate receiving significant national coverage in major media sources would meet these guidelines, as opposed to merely being listed in a set number of polls. A. Randomdude0000 (talk) 22:42, 12 September 2023 (UTC)

Yes I think it provides a basic way to sift through candidates running serious campaigns and also-rans. Say what you will about Binkley and Johnson, but they have run legitimate campaigns. Both have met the donor thresholds for the GOP debate twice now, and in fact the New York Times actually now includes both in their major candidates list, which is a change from early on in the campaign, and is something Wikipedia beat them to. I think people are misunderstanding what a major candidate even is. I mean, the 2020 Democratic primary lists candidates like Wayne Messam, Richard Ojeda, and Joe Sestak. I get that they all held office at one point, but would you actually say any of them should've been included with Biden or Sanders? I would say yes, because while their campaigns were insignificant, they were notable as former office holders. If you are appearing in a number of national polls like Binkley and Johnson did, surely there is something separating you from Corey Stapleton and Steve Laffey, who haven't been.

And as an aside, I think it's weird that a candidate can meet one or both of the thresholds to make the GOP debate (Which requires a minimum of 2 or 3 polls) and not be considered a notable candidate on Wikipedia. Dantedino88 (talk) 22:07, 27 September 2023 (UTC)

Should the state level articles already exist?

For example:2024 United States presidential election in Florida. Seems way WP:TOOSOON to me.

The only information in the state level articles not covered in this article, is the polling data, which is largely irrelevant until both main party candidates are finalised (or likely) anyway. Like it strikes me as WP:NOTDATABASE to have 51 articles for an election where the candidates are not finalized, with all individual state polls for hypothetical candidates. Obviously these articles will need to exist eventually so just draftify them.

Also, there is 0 need at all to have, for example, 2024 United States presidential election in the District of Columbia this early, there's really no need to have it at all I'd say a few weeks before the election. Other more competitive states could warrant their own article earlier, although not this early, with polls and any state-specific issues.

If this has already been discussed, just point me in the direction of the relevant discussion, thanks. MarkiPoli (talk) 15:43, 16 September 2023 (UTC)

Irrelevant text

Crime,[4] education,[5] immigration,[6] gun control,[7][8] healthcare, abortion access,[9] LGBT rights (especially transgender rights), the state of the economy,[10] climate change[11] and the indictments against Donald Trump are expected to be leading campaign issues. - Should be removed; irrelevant and only applies to one candidate — Preceding unsigned comment added by 142.161.78.217 (talk) 01:57, 27 September 2023 (UTC)

Campaign Website Links for Republican Candidates

Under the list of current democratic candidates, an external link to their campaign page is provided, but not done so for the list of republican candidates. This should be rectified for the sake of consistency. 130.245.192.8 (talk) 03:07, 28 September 2023 (UTC)