Negative responsiveness: Difference between revisions
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Results using the [[impartial culture]] model estimate about 15% of elections with 3 candidates;<ref>{{Cite web|last=Miller|first=Nicholas R.|date=2016|title=Monotonicity Failure in IRV Elections with Three Candidates: Closeness Matters|url=https://userpages.umbc.edu/~nmiller/MONFAILURE.R2.NRM.pdf|access-date=2020-07-26|website=University of Maryland Baltimore County|at=Table 2|language=en|quote=Impartial Culture Profiles: All, TMF: 15.1%|edition=2nd}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book|last=Miller|first=Nicholas R.|url=https://userpages.umbc.edu/~nmiller/RESEARCH/MF&IRV.pptx|title=MONOTONICITY FAILURE IN IRV ELECTIONS WITH THREE ANDIDATES|year=2012|pages=23|type=PowerPoint|quote=Impartial Culture Profiles: All, Total MF: 15.0%}}</ref> however, the true probability may be much higher, especially when restricting observation to close elections.<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Quas |first=Anthony |date=2004-03-01 |title=Anomalous Outcomes in Preferential Voting |url=https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0219493704000912 |journal=Stochastics and Dynamics |language=en |volume=04 |issue=1 |pages=95–105 |doi=10.1142/S0219493704000912 |issn=0219-4937}}</ref> For moderate numbers of candidates, the probability of a monotonicity failure quickly approaches 100%.{{citation needed|date=March 2024}} |
Results using the [[impartial culture]] model estimate about 15% of elections with 3 candidates;<ref>{{Cite web|last=Miller|first=Nicholas R.|date=2016|title=Monotonicity Failure in IRV Elections with Three Candidates: Closeness Matters|url=https://userpages.umbc.edu/~nmiller/MONFAILURE.R2.NRM.pdf|access-date=2020-07-26|website=University of Maryland Baltimore County|at=Table 2|language=en|quote=Impartial Culture Profiles: All, TMF: 15.1%|edition=2nd}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book|last=Miller|first=Nicholas R.|url=https://userpages.umbc.edu/~nmiller/RESEARCH/MF&IRV.pptx|title=MONOTONICITY FAILURE IN IRV ELECTIONS WITH THREE ANDIDATES|year=2012|pages=23|type=PowerPoint|quote=Impartial Culture Profiles: All, Total MF: 15.0%}}</ref> however, the true probability may be much higher, especially when restricting observation to close elections.<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Quas |first=Anthony |date=2004-03-01 |title=Anomalous Outcomes in Preferential Voting |url=https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S0219493704000912 |journal=Stochastics and Dynamics |language=en |volume=04 |issue=1 |pages=95–105 |doi=10.1142/S0219493704000912 |issn=0219-4937}}</ref> For moderate numbers of candidates, the probability of a monotonicity failure quickly approaches 100%.{{citation needed|date=March 2024}} |
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A 2013 study using a |
A 2013 study using a two-dimensional [[spatial model of voting]] estimated at least 15% of IRV elections would be nonmonotonic in the best-case scenario (with only three equally-competitive candidates). The researchers concluded that "three-way competitive races will exhibit unacceptably frequent monotonicity failures" and "In light of these results, those seeking to implement a fairer multi-candidate election system should be wary of adopting IRV."<ref name=":3">{{Cite journal|last1=Ornstein|first1=Joseph T.|last2=Norman|first2=Robert Z.|date=2014-10-01|title=Frequency of monotonicity failure under Instant Runoff Voting: estimates based on a spatial model of elections|journal=Public Choice|language=en|volume=161|issue=1–2|pages=1–9|doi=10.1007/s11127-013-0118-2|s2cid=30833409 |issn=0048-5829}}</ref> |
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=== Real-world situations === |
=== Real-world situations === |
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Revision as of 19:33, 2 August 2024
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The positive response,[1][2] monotonicity, or nonperversity criterion[3] is a principle of social choice theory that says that increasing a candidate's ranking or rating should not cause them to lose.[4] Positive response rules out cases where a candidate loses an election as a result of receiving too much support from voters (i.e. being "too popular to win"); rules that violate positive response are called perverse.[5] Situations where the increasing a candidate's rating allows them to win are sometimes called more-is-less paradoxes.
Systems that violate positive response (such as instant-runoff and the two-round system) can create situations where a voter's ballot has a reversed effect on the election, making it "less than worthless". This runs counter to the basic principle that increasing an option's popularity in a democratic election should only improve the chances of that option winning; as a result, German courts have previously struck down nonmonotonic systems for violating the right to equal and direct suffrage.[2][6]
Most voting systems (including Borda and all common tournament solutions) satisfy positive response,[4] as do all commonly-used rated voting methods (including approval, score, and their proportional counterparts).[note 1]
However, the criterion is violated by instant-runoff voting,[7] the single transferable vote,[8] and Hamilton's apportionment method.[2]
The participation criterion is a closely-related, but different, concept. While positive responsiveness deals with a voter changing their opinion (or vote), participation deals with situations where a voter choosing to cast a ballot can have a reversed effect on the election.
By method
Runoff-based voting systems, such as ranked choice voting (instant-runoff) fail the monotonicity criterion. A notable example is the 2009 Burlington mayoral election, the United States' second instant-runoff election in the modern era, where Bob Kiss won the election as a result of 750 ballots ranking him in last place.[9]
An example with three parties (Top, Center, Bottom) is shown below. In this scenario, the Bottom party initially loses. However, they are elected after running an unsuccessful campaign and adopting an unpopular platform, which pushes their supporters away from the party and into the Top party.
| Popular Bottom | Unpopular Bottom | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 1 | Round 2 | |||
| Top | 
|
+6% | Top | 31% | 46% | |
| Center | 30% | 55% 
|
↗ | Center | |
|
| Bottom | 45% | 45% | -6% | Bottom | 39% | 54%
|
This election is an example of a center-squeeze, a class of elections where instant-runoff and plurality have difficulties electing the majority-preferred candidate, because the first-round vote is split between an extremist and a moderate. Here, the loss of support for Bottom policies makes the Top party more popular, allowing it to defeat the Center party in the first round.
A famous example of a monotonicity failure is the 2022 Alaska at-large special election.
Quota rules
Proportional representation systems using largest remainders for apportionment do not pass the monotonicity criterion. This happened in the 2005 German federal election, when CDU voters in Dresden were instructed to vote for the FDP, a strategy that allowed the party an additional seat.[2] As a result, the Federal Constitutional Court ruled that negative voting weights violate the German constitution's guarantee of equal and direct suffrage.[6]
Frequency of violations
For electoral methods failing positive value, the frequency of monotonicity violations will depend on the electoral method, the candidates, and the distribution of outcomes. Negative voting weights tend to be most common with instant-runoff, with what some researchers have described as an "unacceptably high" frequency.[10]
Theoretical models
Results using the impartial culture model estimate about 15% of elections with 3 candidates;[11][12] however, the true probability may be much higher, especially when restricting observation to close elections.[13] For moderate numbers of candidates, the probability of a monotonicity failure quickly approaches 100%.[citation needed]
A 2013 study using a two-dimensional spatial model of voting estimated at least 15% of IRV elections would be nonmonotonic in the best-case scenario (with only three equally-competitive candidates). The researchers concluded that "three-way competitive races will exhibit unacceptably frequent monotonicity failures" and "In light of these results, those seeking to implement a fairer multi-candidate election system should be wary of adopting IRV."[10]
Real-world situations
Alaska 2022
Alaska's first-ever instant-runoff election resulted in negative vote weights for many Republican supporters of Sarah Palin, who could have defeated Mary Peltola by placing her first on their ballots.[14]
Burlington, Vermont
In Burlington's second IRV election, incumbent Bob Kiss was re-elected, despite losing in a head-to-head matchup with Democrat Andy Montroll (the Condorcet winner). However, if Kiss had gained more support from Wright voters, Kiss would have lost.[9]
Survey of nonmonotonic elections
A survey of 185 American instant-runoff elections where no candidate was ranked first by a majority of voters found five additional elections containing monotonicity failures.[9]
2005 German Election in Dresden
A negative voting weight event famously resulted in the abolition of Hamilton's method for apportionment in Germany after the 2005 federal election. CDU voters in Dresden were instructed to strategically vote for the FDP, a strategy that allowed the party to earn an additional seat, causing substantial controversy. As a result, the Federal Constitutional Court ruled that negative voting weights violate the German constitution's guarantee of equal and direct suffrage.[2]
See also
- Participation criterion, a closely-related concept
- Voting system
- Voting system criterion
- Monotone preferences in consumer theory
- Monotonicity (mechanism design)
- Maskin monotonicity
Notes
- ^ Apart from majority judgment, these systems satisfy an even stronger form of positive responsiveness: if there is a tie, any increase in a candidate's rating will break the tie in that candidate's favor.
References
- ^ May, Kenneth O. (1952). "A Set of Independent Necessary and Sufficient Conditions for Simple Majority Decision". Econometrica. 20 (4): 680–684. doi:10.2307/1907651. ISSN 0012-9682. JSTOR 1907651.
- ^ a b c d e Pukelsheim, Friedrich (2014). Proportional representation : apportionment methods and their applications. Internet Archive. Cham; New York : Springer. ISBN 978-3-319-03855-1.
- ^ Doron, Gideon; Kronick, Richard (1977). "Single Transferrable Vote: An Example of a Perverse Social Choice Function". American Journal of Political Science. 21 (2): 303–311. doi:10.2307/2110496. ISSN 0092-5853.
- ^ a b D R Woodall, "Monotonicity and Single-Seat Election Rules", Voting matters, Issue 6, 1996
- ^ Doron, Gideon; Kronick, Richard (1977). "Single Transferrable Vote: An Example of a Perverse Social Choice Function". American Journal of Political Science. 21 (2): 303–311. doi:10.2307/2110496. ISSN 0092-5853.
- ^ a b dpa (2013-02-22). "Bundestag beschließt neues Wahlrecht". Die Zeit (in German). ISSN 0044-2070. Retrieved 2024-05-02.
- ^ Ornstein, Joseph T.; Norman, Robert Z. (2014-10-01). "Frequency of monotonicity failure under Instant Runoff Voting: estimates based on a spatial model of elections". Public Choice. 161 (1–2): 1–9. doi:10.1007/s11127-013-0118-2. ISSN 0048-5829. S2CID 30833409.
- ^ Doron, Gideon; Kronick, Richard (1977). "Single Transferrable Vote: An Example of a Perverse Social Choice Function". American Journal of Political Science. 21 (2): 303–311. doi:10.2307/2110496. ISSN 0092-5853.
- ^ a b c Graham-Squire, Adam T.; McCune, David (2023-06-12). "An Examination of Ranked-Choice Voting in the United States, 2004–2022". Representation: 1–19. arXiv:2301.12075. doi:10.1080/00344893.2023.2221689.
- ^ a b Ornstein, Joseph T.; Norman, Robert Z. (2014-10-01). "Frequency of monotonicity failure under Instant Runoff Voting: estimates based on a spatial model of elections". Public Choice. 161 (1–2): 1–9. doi:10.1007/s11127-013-0118-2. ISSN 0048-5829. S2CID 30833409.
- ^ Miller, Nicholas R. (2016). "Monotonicity Failure in IRV Elections with Three Candidates: Closeness Matters" (PDF). University of Maryland Baltimore County (2nd ed.). Table 2. Retrieved 2020-07-26.
Impartial Culture Profiles: All, TMF: 15.1%
- ^ Miller, Nicholas R. (2012). MONOTONICITY FAILURE IN IRV ELECTIONS WITH THREE ANDIDATES (PowerPoint). p. 23.
Impartial Culture Profiles: All, Total MF: 15.0%
- ^ Quas, Anthony (2004-03-01). "Anomalous Outcomes in Preferential Voting". Stochastics and Dynamics. 04 (1): 95–105. doi:10.1142/S0219493704000912. ISSN 0219-4937.
- ^ Graham-Squire, Adam; McCune, David (2024-01-02). "Ranked Choice Wackiness in Alaska". Math Horizons. 31 (1): 24–27. doi:10.1080/10724117.2023.2224675. ISSN 1072-4117.