2028 United States presidential election

For related races, see 2028 United States elections.

2028 United States presidential election

November 7, 2028
538 members of the Electoral College 270 electoral votes needed to win
Party Republican Democratic
2028 electoral map, based on the results of the 2020 census.
Incumbent President Donald Trump Republican

The 2028 United States presidential election will be the 61st quadrennial presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 7, 2028. Voters will elect a president and vice president to a term of four years. This will be the first presidential election since 2012 in which Donald Trump will not be the Republican nominee for president. He is the first president elected non-consecutively to be limited by the Twenty-second Amendment, as it did not yet exist when Grover Cleveland, the only president before him to have served two non-consecutive terms, was elected a second time in 1892.

Republican President-elect Donald Trump is ineligible to seek a third term due to the term limits established by the Twenty-second Amendment. After winning the 2016 and losing the 2020 U.S. presidential elections, Trump launched a campaign for a second non-consecutive term, securing the Republican nomination and selecting Junior U.S. Senator JD Vance as his running mate. Trump went on to win the 2024 presidential election against incumbent Democratic vice president Kamala Harris and secure a second, non-consecutive term in office. His term is set to expire at noon on January 20, 2029, when the winners of the 2028 election will be inaugurated as the 48th president and the 51st vice president of the United States.

As the vice president-elect of the United States, Vance is considered a frontrunner for the Republican nomination for president, although Florida governor Ron DeSantis (who also ran for the nomination in 2024) is seen as a potential contender. On the Democratic side, Vice President Harris, governors Gavin Newsom (California), Andy Beshear (Kentucky), Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania), and Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan) are considered potential contenders for the presidential nomination.

This presidential election will take place alongside elections to the U.S. Senate (34 seats), the U.S. House of Representatives (all 435 seats), and gubernatorial elections in 11 states and two territories, American Samoa and Puerto Rico.

Background

See also: 2024 United States presidential election

Donald Trump, the incumbent president in 2028, whose second term ends at noon on January 20, 2029

Article Two of the United States Constitution provides that the President and Vice President of the United States must be natural-born citizens of the United States, at least 35 years old, and residents of the United States for a period of at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the political parties, in which case each party devises a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. Traditionally, the primary elections are indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The general election in November is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors in turn directly elect the president and vice president.

The Republican Party, represented by Donald Trump and JD Vance, came to power in the United States following the 2024 election. Trump, who was elected president in 2016 but lost a re-election bid in 2020 to Joe Biden, defeated vice president Kamala Harris, who began her campaign following Biden's exit from the 2024 election. Trump's victory was credited to a surge in inflation and an immigration crisis. Republicans secured control of the Senate and the House majority, although several House races have not been called as of November 14.

Electoral system

The president and vice president of the United States are elected through the Electoral College, a group of 538 presidential electors who convene to vote for the president and vice president. The number of electors in the Electoral College is determined through the total number of senators and representatives with an additional three representatives for Washington, D.C.. Electors cast votes for the president and vice president; the winner is elected through a majority of 270 votes. If the election ends in a tie, a contingent election occurs, in which the House of Representatives votes on the president and the Senate votes on the vice president. Forty-eight states use a winner-take-all system in which states award all of their electors to the winner of the popular vote. In Maine and Nebraska, two votes are allocated to the winner of the popular vote, while each of the individual congressional districts have one vote. Electoral votes are certified by state electors in December and by Congress on January 6.

Presidential candidates are selected in a presidential primary, conducted through primary elections or caucuses. The results of primary elections, ran by state governments, and caucuses, ran by state parties, bind convention delegates to candidates. The Democratic Party mandates a proportional allocation if a candidate receives at least fifteen percent in a given congressional district, while the Republican Party gives state parties the authority to allocate all of the delegates to a candidate within the "proportionality window", set by the first two weeks of March. After the window, state parties may set individual rules. A brokered convention occurs when a candidate does not receive a majority of votes on the first round of voting, or when a candidate withdraws.

Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, be at least 35 years of age, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years. The Twenty-second Amendment forbids any person from being elected president more than twice. Trump is ineligible to seek a third term.

Electoral map

Main article: Red states and blue states

This map shows how partisan states are by the Cook Partisan Voting Index. Swing states are the states in lighter colors.

Most U.S. states are not highly competitive in presidential elections, often voting consistently for the same party due to longstanding demographic differences. In the Electoral College, this results in major-party candidates primarily focusing their campaigns on swing states, which can swing between parties from election to election. These states are critical for a presidential candidate's path to victory. For 2028, the expected swing states likely include the Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, as well as the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina, all of which were narrowly won by Trump in 2024. The Star Tribune also reported that the close margin in Minnesota would make it specifically a very likely swing state.

Red states, also known as the red wall or red sea, are states that consistently vote Republican at the national level. The red wall has rarely been broken, as these states almost never swing. The last significant breach of the red wall occurred in the 1992 United States presidential election. Formerly considered swing states, such as Florida, Iowa, and Ohio, voted for Trump in all three of his elections, with increasing margins in each election (and have become reliably red in other state and federal elections) which suggests that they are no longer swing states. Blue states are states that consistently vote Democratic at the national level. The blue states in 2024 include what is sometimes called the blue wall, as well as Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia, formerly swing states have become reliably blue since 2008 even in Republican national victories. Due to its recent record of voting Democratic even during Republican national wins, Nebraska's 2nd congressional district is also sometimes considered blue.

Republican Party

Potential candidates

Potential Republican candidates

• 
  Governor
  Ron DeSantis
  of Florida
  (2019–present)
• 
  Vice President-elect
  JD Vance
  from Ohio
• 
  Governor
  Glenn Youngkin
  of Virginia
  (2022–present)

Ron DeSantis

Ron DeSantis has served as the governor of Florida since 2019. DeSantis has demonstrated a potential for being a candidate in the 2028 presidential primaries, stating that Trump voters in Iowa told him that they would vote for him in 2028. He appeared in a debate with California governor Gavin Newsom in November 2023, in what was viewed by NBC News as a precursor to a 2028 presidential bid.

JD Vance

JD Vance has served as a senator of Ohio since 2023 and is the vice president-elect after winning the 2024 election as Trump's running mate. Vance is the frontrunner in the primary election, according to The New York Times's Nate Cohn, and the "MAGA heir-apparent" according to USA Today, as well as The Columbus Dispatch. The Hill stated that Vance's debate performance against Minnesota governor Tim Walz in October 2024 improved his status as a presidential contender.

Glenn Youngkin

Glenn Youngkin has served as the governor of Virginia since 2022. Youngkin has been reported as a possible candidate by Politico. According to The Washington Post, he is "appearing to lay the groundwork" for a 2028 presidential bid.

Democratic Party

Potential candidates

Potential Democratic candidates

• 
  Governor
  Andy Beshear
  of Kentucky
  (2019–present)
• 
  Vice President
  Kamala Harris
  from California
  (2021–present)
• 
  Governor
  Gavin Newsom
  of California
  (2019–present)
• 
  Governor
  J. B. Pritzker
  of Illinois
  (2019–present)
• 
  Governor
  Josh Shapiro
  of Pennsylvania
  (2023–present)
• 
  Governor
  Gretchen Whitmer
  of Michigan
  (2019–present)

Andy Beshear

Andy Beshear has served as the governor of Kentucky since 2019. He was previously on the shortlist to be the vice presidential nominee for the 2024 election, and was seen as a potential replacement for President Biden if he withdrew from the race. According to the Washington Post, in January 2024, Beshear formed a political action committee (PAC) to increase his national profile. In October 2024, Beshear headlined an event for the New Hampshire Democrats, a key early primary state, where he promoted both himself and Vice President Kamala Harris to attendees, signaling his future aspirations. In response to ongoing speculation about his political ambitions, Beshear has stated in an interview with WDKY-TV that he will "see what the future holds," without explicitly ruling out a potential presidential run.

Kamala Harris

Kamala Harris has served as the 49th vice president of the United States since 2021 and became the nominee for president in the 2024 U.S presidential election after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, 2024. She ended up losing the election to Donald Trump. Harris, who has the largest donor network in the Democratic Party, could run for president in 2028 according to The New York Times, as well as Politico, although her loss in the previous election could potentially give her a disadvantage. According to USA Today, Harris intended to run in 2028 before Biden withdrew from the 2024 election and endorsed Harris.

Gavin Newsom

Gavin Newsom has served as the governor of California since 2019. Newsom has been viewed as a contender for the 2028 presidential election by Politico and The Washington Post after he garnered national attention by December 2023, and he was seen as a potential replacement for Biden after his withdrawal from the 2024 election by The New York Times. According to The New York Times, Newsom was considering a bid for the presidency by September 2023. In November 2023, he appeared in a debate with Florida governor Ron DeSantis, in an event that was viewed as a precursor to a presidential bid by NBC News. According to Axios, Newsom and J. B. Pritzker donated to Charleston, South Carolina mayoral candidate Clay Middleton, signaling a presidential ambition.

J. B. Pritzker

J. B. Pritzker has served as the governor of Illinois since 2019. Pritzker has privately discussed running in 2028, according to the Chicago Sun-Times. With Newsom, he donated to Middleton.

Josh Shapiro

Josh Shapiro has served as the governor of Pennsylvania since 2023. Shapiro has been seen as a critical figure in Pennsylvania by Democratic strategists and officials, according to Politico, as a politician who could garner votes from white working-class voters, according to CNN. He was said to be a front-runner in the primary by The Philadelphia Inquirer. According to The New York Times, Shapiro was seen as a potential replacement for Biden.

Gretchen Whitmer

Gretchen Whitmer has served as the governor of Michigan since 2019. Whitmer has been discussed as a contender in 2028, although she distanced herself from speculation in an interview with Lulu Garcia-Navarro of The New York Times Magazine in June 2024. She disavowed a movement to replace Biden.

Opinion polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Tucker Carlson	Ted Cruz	Ron DeSantis	Nikki Haley	Vivek Ramaswamy	Marco Rubio	JD Vance	Other/ Undecided
Echelon Insights	November 14–18, 2024	483 (LV)	—	5%	8%	9%	9%	5%	37%	27%
	November 5, 2024	2024 United States presidential election held.
Echelon Insights	July 19–21, 2024	982 (RV)	—	4%	14%	9%	10%	2%	19%	16%
Echelon Insights	January 16–18, 2024	832 (RV)	6%	—	27%	19%	18%	—	1%	29%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Pete Buttigieg	Kamala Harris	Gavin Newsom	Josh Shapiro	Tim Walz	Other/ Undecided
Echelon Insights	November 14–18, 2024	457 (LV)	6%	41%	8%	7%	6%	32%
	November 5, 2024	2024 United States presidential election held.
Morning Consult/Politico	May 28–29, 2024	3,997 (RV)	10%	21%	10%	3%	—	8%
Echelon Insights	January 16–18, 2024	499 (RV)	13%	33%	11%	2%	—	41%