2024 United States Senate elections: Difference between revisions
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Concurrent with the 2024 regular Senate elections, two special Senate elections took place: one in California, to fill the final two months of [[Dianne Feinstein]]'s term following her death in September 2023; and one in Nebraska, to fill the remaining two years of [[Ben Sasse]]'s term following his resignation in January 2023.<ref name=SasseResig>{{cite web|last1=Everett|first1=Burgess|last2=Levine|first2=Marianne|title=Sasse expected to resign from Senate|work=[[Politico]]|date=October 5, 2022|url=https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/06/sasse-expected-to-resign-from-senate-00060812|access-date=October 6, 2022|archive-date=October 7, 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221007034843/https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/06/sasse-expected-to-resign-from-senate-00060812|url-status=live}}</ref><ref name=StabenowMI/><ref>{{cite web|last=Johnson|first=Ted|date=September 29, 2023|title=Sen. Dianne Feinstein Dies: Groundbreaking California Democrat Was 90|url=https://deadline.com/2023/09/dianne-feinstein-dead-1235559632/|access-date=September 29, 2023|work=[[Deadline Hollywood]]|archive-date=September 29, 2023|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230929135310/https://deadline.com/2023/09/dianne-feinstein-dead-1235559632/|url-status=live}}</ref> Republicans won control of the U.S. Senate with 53 seats by flipping the open seat in [[2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia|West Virginia]] and defeating Democratic incumbents in [[2024 United States Senate election in Montana|Montana]], [[2024 United States Senate election in Ohio|Ohio]], and [[2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania|Pennsylvania]], while all Republican incumbents won re-election. This is the first time since 1980 that Republicans flipped control of either chamber of Congress in a presidential year. |
Concurrent with the 2024 regular Senate elections, two special Senate elections took place: one in California, to fill the final two months of [[Dianne Feinstein]]'s term following her death in September 2023; and one in Nebraska, to fill the remaining two years of [[Ben Sasse]]'s term following his resignation in January 2023.<ref name=SasseResig>{{cite web|last1=Everett|first1=Burgess|last2=Levine|first2=Marianne|title=Sasse expected to resign from Senate|work=[[Politico]]|date=October 5, 2022|url=https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/06/sasse-expected-to-resign-from-senate-00060812|access-date=October 6, 2022|archive-date=October 7, 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221007034843/https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/06/sasse-expected-to-resign-from-senate-00060812|url-status=live}}</ref><ref name=StabenowMI/><ref>{{cite web|last=Johnson|first=Ted|date=September 29, 2023|title=Sen. Dianne Feinstein Dies: Groundbreaking California Democrat Was 90|url=https://deadline.com/2023/09/dianne-feinstein-dead-1235559632/|access-date=September 29, 2023|work=[[Deadline Hollywood]]|archive-date=September 29, 2023|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230929135310/https://deadline.com/2023/09/dianne-feinstein-dead-1235559632/|url-status=live}}</ref> Republicans won control of the U.S. Senate with 53 seats by flipping the open seat in [[2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia|West Virginia]] and defeating Democratic incumbents in [[2024 United States Senate election in Montana|Montana]], [[2024 United States Senate election in Ohio|Ohio]], and [[2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania|Pennsylvania]], while all Republican incumbents won re-election. This is the first time since 1980 that Republicans flipped control of either chamber of Congress in a presidential year. |
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This election had the highest number of senators elected in a state that was simultaneously won by the presidential nominee of the opposite party since [[2012 United States Senate elections|2012]]: Democrats [[Tammy Baldwin]] of Wisconsin, [[Ruben Gallego]] of Arizona, [[Jacky Rosen]] of Nevada, and [[Elissa Slotkin]] of Michigan were elected in states carried by Republican presidential candidate [[Donald Trump]], although the final results were significantly closer in the Republicans' favor than polling suggested.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Pathe |first=Simone |date=2024-11-06 |title=Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin will win reelection in Wisconsin, CNN projects {{!}} CNN Politics |url=https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/06/politics/tammy-baldwin-wisconsin-senate/index.html |access-date=2024-11-08 |work=CNN |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Vakil |first=Caroline |date=2024-11-10 |title=Gallego defeats Lake in Arizona Senate race |url=https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4969256-ruben-gallego-defeats-kari-lake/ |access-date=2024-11-10 |work=The Hill}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Vakil |first=Caroline |date=2024-11-07 |title=Rosen keeps Nevada Senate seat in Democratic hands |url=https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4969281-nevada-senate-race-jacky-rosen/ |access-date=2024-11-08 |work=The Hill}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Main |first=Alison |date=2024-11-06 |title=Democrat Elissa Slotkin will win Michigan Senate seat, CNN projects {{!}} CNN Politics |url=https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/06/politics/elissa-slotkin-michigan-senate-race/index.html |access-date=2024-11-08 |work=CNN}}</ref> This is also the first time since 2012 that Democrats won a Senate seat (both in open seats and as incumbents) in a state they did not carry in the concurrent presidential election. With Republicans flipping West Virginia, this is the first time since [[2014 United States Senate elections|2014]] that Republicans flipped any open Democratic-held seat. Republicans successfully defended all their own seats for the first time since 2014 |
This election had the highest number of senators elected in a state that was simultaneously won by the presidential nominee of the opposite party since [[2012 United States Senate elections|2012]]: Democrats [[Tammy Baldwin]] of Wisconsin, [[Ruben Gallego]] of Arizona, [[Jacky Rosen]] of Nevada, and [[Elissa Slotkin]] of Michigan were elected in states carried by Republican presidential candidate [[Donald Trump]], although the final results were significantly closer in the Republicans' favor than polling suggested.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Pathe |first=Simone |date=2024-11-06 |title=Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin will win reelection in Wisconsin, CNN projects {{!}} CNN Politics |url=https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/06/politics/tammy-baldwin-wisconsin-senate/index.html |access-date=2024-11-08 |work=CNN |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Vakil |first=Caroline |date=2024-11-10 |title=Gallego defeats Lake in Arizona Senate race |url=https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4969256-ruben-gallego-defeats-kari-lake/ |access-date=2024-11-10 |work=The Hill}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Vakil |first=Caroline |date=2024-11-07 |title=Rosen keeps Nevada Senate seat in Democratic hands |url=https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4969281-nevada-senate-race-jacky-rosen/ |access-date=2024-11-08 |work=The Hill}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Main |first=Alison |date=2024-11-06 |title=Democrat Elissa Slotkin will win Michigan Senate seat, CNN projects {{!}} CNN Politics |url=https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/06/politics/elissa-slotkin-michigan-senate-race/index.html |access-date=2024-11-08 |work=CNN}}</ref> This is also the first time since 2012 that Democrats won a Senate seat (both in open seats and as incumbents) in a state they did not carry in the concurrent presidential election. With Republicans flipping West Virginia, this is the first time since [[2014 United States Senate elections|2014]] that Republicans flipped any open Democratic-held seat. Republicans successfully defended all their own seats for the first time since 2014. |
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== Partisan composition == |
== Partisan composition == |
Revision as of 06:43, 24 November 2024
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34 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate 51[a] seats needed for a majority | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Results of the elections: Democratic hold Democratic gain Republican hold Republican gain Independent hold Rectangular inset (Nebraska): both seats up for election | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2024 United States Senate elections were held on November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections. Regularly scheduled elections were held for 33 out of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate, plus one seat in a special election.[4][5] Senators are divided into 3 classes whose 6-year terms are staggered so that a different class is elected every 2 years.[6] Class 1 senators faced election in 2024.[7] Republicans flipped four Democratic-held seats, regaining a Senate majority for the first time since 2021.
There were 26 senators (15 Democrats, 9 Republicans, and 2 independents) seeking re-election in 2024.[8] There were also 2 Republicans (Mike Braun of Indiana and Mitt Romney of Utah), 3 Democrats (Ben Cardin of Maryland, Tom Carper of Delaware, Debbie Stabenow of Michigan), and 2 independents (Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona and Joe Manchin of West Virginia) not seeking re-election.[9][10][11][12][13][14][15] Laphonza Butler of California and George Helmy of New Jersey, Democrats who were appointed to their current seats in 2023 and 2024, respectively, were not seeking election in 2024.[16][17]
Concurrent with the 2024 regular Senate elections, two special Senate elections took place: one in California, to fill the final two months of Dianne Feinstein's term following her death in September 2023; and one in Nebraska, to fill the remaining two years of Ben Sasse's term following his resignation in January 2023.[18][14][19] Republicans won control of the U.S. Senate with 53 seats by flipping the open seat in West Virginia and defeating Democratic incumbents in Montana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, while all Republican incumbents won re-election. This is the first time since 1980 that Republicans flipped control of either chamber of Congress in a presidential year.
This election had the highest number of senators elected in a state that was simultaneously won by the presidential nominee of the opposite party since 2012: Democrats Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, Ruben Gallego of Arizona, Jacky Rosen of Nevada, and Elissa Slotkin of Michigan were elected in states carried by Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, although the final results were significantly closer in the Republicans' favor than polling suggested.[20][21][22][23] This is also the first time since 2012 that Democrats won a Senate seat (both in open seats and as incumbents) in a state they did not carry in the concurrent presidential election. With Republicans flipping West Virginia, this is the first time since 2014 that Republicans flipped any open Democratic-held seat. Republicans successfully defended all their own seats for the first time since 2014.
Partisan composition
All 33 Class 1 Senate seats, and one Class 2 seat, were up for election in 2024; where Class 1 currently consists of 20 Democrats, 4 independents who caucus with the Senate Democrats,[e] and 10 Republicans.
Burgess Everett of Politico considered the map for these Senate elections to be highly unfavorable to Democrats. Democrats were to defend 23 of the 33 Class 1 seats,[26] including three in states won by Republican Donald Trump in both 2016 and 2020. In contrast, there are no seats in this class held by Republicans in states won by Democrat Joe Biden in 2020. In the previous Senate election cycle that coincided with a presidential election (2020), only one senator (Susan Collins of Maine) was elected in a state that was simultaneously won by the presidential nominee of the opposite party.[27]
Time's Eric Cortellessa wrote that the thesis of the Republican's success boiled down to the simple slogan "Max out the men and hold the women", meaning emphasizing the economy and immigration, which Trump did "relentlessly". Cortellessa also mentioned Trump's minimization of his numerous controversies, and push-offs of criminal trials via "a combination of friendly judges and legal postponements" to after the election. He said Trump's "advanced age and increasingly incoherent trail rhetoric" were taken by voters in stride, and that "much of the country read Trump's legal woes as part of a larger corrupt conspiracy to deny him, and them, power".[28] NPR wrote that "Americans have continued to chafe at higher than pre-pandemic prices and the lack of affordable housing", and that much of the voter placed the blame "squarely" on the Biden administration, wishing for the economy that Trump established years ago. NPR said demographics played an important role, with White voters going up as a share of the electorate from 67% to 71% and the Republicans winning 46% of Latinos, and mentioned polling's "continued underestimation of Republicans's support nationally and in the key swing states".[29]
Summary results
Seats
Parties | Total | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Independent | Republican | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Last elections (2022) | 49 | 2 | 49 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Before these elections | 47 | 4 | 49 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Not up | 28 | – | 38 | 66 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Class 2 (2020→2026) | 13 | – | 19 | 32 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Class 3 (2022→2028) | 15 | – | 19 | 34 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Up | 19[f] | 4[g] | 11 | 33 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Class 1 (2018→2024) | 21[g] | 2 | 10 | 33 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Special: Class 1 & 2 | 1[f] | — | 1[h] | 2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
General election | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Incumbent retiring | 5[f] | 2 | 2 | 9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Held by same party | 5 | — | 2 | 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Replaced by other party | 1 Independent replaced by 1 Republican 1 Independent replaced by 1 Democrat |
2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Result | 6 | — | 3 | 9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Incumbent running | 13 | 2 | 8 | 23 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Won re-election | 10 | 2 | 8 | 20 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Lost re-election | 3 Democrats replaced by 3 Republicans | 3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Result | 10 | 2 | 11 | 23 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Special elections | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Appointee retiring | 1[f] | — | — | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Appointee running | – | – | 1[h] | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Individuals elected | 1 | – | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Result | 1 | – | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Result | 45 | 2 | 53 | 100 |
Change in composition
Each block represents one of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate. "D#" is a Democratic/active senator, "I#" is an Independent senator, and "R#" is a Republican/active senator. They are arranged so that the parties are separated, and a majority is clear by crossing the middle.
Before the elections
Each block indicates an incumbent senator's actions going into the election.
D1 | D2 | D3 | D4 | D5 | D6 | D7 | D8 | D9 | D10 |
D20 | D19 | D18 | D17 | D16 | D15 | D14 | D13 | D12 | D11 |
D21 | D22 | D23 | D24 | D25 | D26 | D27 | D28 | D29 Calif. Retiring |
D30 Conn. Running |
D40 N.M. Running |
D39 N.J. Retiring |
D38 Nev. Running |
D37 Mont. Running |
D36 Minn. Running |
D35 Mich. Retiring |
D34 Mass. Running |
D33 Md. Retiring |
D32 Hawaii Running |
D31 Del. Retiring |
D41 N.Y. Running |
D42 Ohio Running |
D43 Pa. Running |
D44 R.I. Running |
D45 Va. Running |
D46 Wash. Running |
D47 Wis. Running |
I1 Ariz. Retiring |
I2 Maine Running |
I3 Vt. Running |
Majority (with Independents) ↑ | |||||||||
R41 Miss. Running |
R42 Mo. Running |
R43 Neb. (reg) Running |
R44 Neb. (sp) Running |
R45 N.D. Running |
R46 Tenn. Running |
R47 Texas Running |
R48 Utah Retiring |
R49 Wyo. Running |
I4 W.Va. Retiring |
R40 Ind. Retiring |
R39 Fla. Running |
R38 | R37 | R36 | R35 | R34 | R33 | R32 | R31 |
R21 | R22 | R23 | R24 | R25 | R26 | R27 | R28 | R29 | R30 |
R20 | R19 | R18 | R17 | R16 | R15 | R14 | R13 | R12 | R11 |
R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | R8 | R9 | R10 |
After the elections
D1 | D2 | D3 | D4 | D5 | D6 | D7 | D8 | D9 | D10 |
D20 | D19 | D18 | D17 | D16 | D15 | D14 | D13 | D12 | D11 |
D21 | D22 | D23 | D24 | D25 | D26 | D27 | D28 | D29 Calif. Hold |
D30 Conn. Re-elected |
D40 N.Y. Re-elected |
D39 N.M. Re-elected |
D38 N.J. Hold |
D37 Nev. Re-elected |
D36 Minn. Re-elected |
D35 Mich. Hold |
D34 Mass. Re-elected |
D33 Md. Hold |
D32 Hawaii Re-elected |
D31 Del. Hold |
D41 R.I. Re-elected |
D42 Va. Re-elected |
D43 Wash. Re-elected |
D44 Wisc. Re-elected |
D45 Ariz. Gain |
I1 Maine Re-elected |
I2 Vt. Re-elected |
R53 W.Va. Gain |
R52 Pa. Gain |
R51 Ohio Gain |
Majority → | |||||||||
R41 Miss. Re-elected |
R42 Mo. Re-elected |
R43 Neb. (reg) Re-elected |
R44 Neb. (sp) Elected[i] |
R45 N.D. Re-elected |
R46 Tenn. Re-elected |
R47 Texas Re-elected |
R48 Utah Hold |
R49 Wyo. Re-elected |
R50 Mont. Gain |
R40 Ind. Hold |
R39 Fla. Re-elected |
R38 | R37 | R36 | R35 | R34 | R33 | R32 | R31 |
R21 | R22 | R23 | R24 | R25 | R26 | R27 | R28 | R29 | R30 |
R20 | R19 | R18 | R17 | R16 | R15 | R14 | R13 | R12 | R11 |
R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | R8 | R9 | R10 |
Key |
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Predictions
Several sites and individuals published predictions of competitive seats. These predictions looked at factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent was running for reelection) and the other candidates, and the state's partisan lean (reflected in part by the state's Cook Partisan Voting Index rating). The predictions assigned ratings to each seat, indicating the predicted advantage that a party had in winning that seat. Most election predictors used:
- "tossup": no advantage
- "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
- "lean" or "leans": slight advantage
- "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
- "safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory
Constituency | Incumbent | Ratings | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
State | PVI[30] | Senator | Last election[j] |
Cook Oct. 21, 2024[31] |
IE Oct. 31, 2024[32] |
Sabato Nov. 4, 2024[33] |
RCP Oct. 30, 2024[34] |
ED Nov. 4, 2024[35] |
CNalysis Nov. 4, 2024[36] |
DDHQ/The Hill Nov. 5, 2024[37] |
Fox Oct. 29, 2024[38] |
538 Nov. 2, 2024[39] |
Result |
Arizona | R+2 | Kyrsten Sinema (retiring) |
50.0% D[k] | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Likely D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Likely D (flip) | Gallego 50.1% D (flip) |
California[l] | D+13 | Laphonza Butler (retiring) |
Appointed (2023)[m] |
Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Solid D | Schiff 59.1% D |
Connecticut | D+7 | Chris Murphy | 59.5% D | Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Solid D | Murphy 58.6% D |
Delaware | D+7 | Tom Carper (retiring) |
60.0% D | Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Solid D | Blunt Rochester 56.6% D |
Florida | R+3 | Rick Scott | 50.1% R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | Likely R | Scott 56.6% R |
Hawaii | D+14 | Mazie Hirono | 71.2% D | Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Solid D | Hirono 64.6% D |
Indiana | R+11 | Mike Braun (retiring) |
50.7% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Solid R | Banks 58.7% R |
Maine | D+2 | Angus King | 54.3% I | Solid I | Solid I | Safe I | Solid I | Safe I | Solid I | Safe I | Solid I | Likely I | King 51.8% I |
Maryland | D+14 | Ben Cardin (retiring) |
64.9% D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Lean D | Solid D | Alsobrooks 54.8% D |
Massachusetts | D+15 | Elizabeth Warren | 60.3% D | Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Solid D | Warren 59.4% D |
Michigan | R+1 | Debbie Stabenow (retiring) |
52.3% D | Tossup | Tilt D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Likely D | Slotkin 48.7% D |
Minnesota | D+1 | Amy Klobuchar | 60.3% D | Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Solid D | Klobuchar 56.3% D |
Mississippi | R+11 | Roger Wicker | 58.5% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Solid R | Wicker 63.4% R |
Missouri | R+10 | Josh Hawley | 51.4% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Solid R | Likely R | Solid R | Solid R | Hawley 55.6% R |
Montana | R+11 | Jon Tester | 50.3% D | Lean R (flip) | Tilt R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Tilt R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Lean R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | Sheehy 52.6% R (flip) |
Nebraska (regular) |
R+13 | Deb Fischer | 57.7% R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R | Likely R | Tilt R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | Fischer 53.6% R |
Nebraska (special) |
R+13 | Pete Ricketts | Appointed (2023)[n] |
Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Solid R | Ricketts 62.8% R |
Nevada | R+1 | Jacky Rosen | 50.4% D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Likely D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Likely D | Rosen 47.9% D |
New Jersey | D+6 | George Helmy (retiring) |
Appointed (2024)[o] |
Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Likely D | Kim 53.5% D |
New Mexico | D+3 | Martin Heinrich | 54.1% D | Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Lean D | Safe D | Solid D | Likely D | Likely D | Solid D | Heinrich 55.1% D |
New York | D+10 | Kirsten Gillibrand | 67.0% D | Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Solid D | Gillibrand 58.5% D |
North Dakota | R+20 | Kevin Cramer | 55.1% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Solid R | Cramer 66.5% R |
Ohio | R+6 | Sherrod Brown | 53.4% D | Tossup | Tossup | Lean R (flip) | Tossup | Lean D | Tilt D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Moreno 50.2% R (flip) |
Pennsylvania | R+2 | Bob Casey Jr. | 55.7% D | Tossup | Tilt D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | McCormick 48.8% R (flip) |
Rhode Island | D+8 | Sheldon Whitehouse | 61.4% D | Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Solid D | Whitehouse 59.9% D |
Tennessee | R+14 | Marsha Blackburn | 54.7% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Solid R | Blackburn 63.8% R |
Texas | R+5 | Ted Cruz | 50.9% R | Lean R | Tilt R | Lean R | Tossup | Lean R | Tilt R | Lean R | Likely R | Likely R | Cruz 53.1% R |
Utah | R+13 | Mitt Romney (retiring) |
62.6% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Solid R | Curtis 62.5% R |
Vermont | D+16 | Bernie Sanders | 67.4% I | Solid I | Solid I | Safe I | Solid I | Safe I | Solid I | Safe I | Solid I | Solid I | Sanders 63.3% I |
Virginia | D+3 | Tim Kaine | 57.0% D | Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Solid D | Likely D | Solid D | Likely D | Kaine 54.1% D |
Washington | D+8 | Maria Cantwell | 58.3% D | Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Solid D | Cantwell 59.4% D |
West Virginia | R+22 | Joe Manchin (retiring) |
49.6% D[p] | Solid R (flip) | Solid R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Solid R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Solid R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Solid R (flip) | Solid R (flip) | Justice 68.8% R (flip) |
Wisconsin | R+2 | Tammy Baldwin | 55.4% D | Tossup | Tilt D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Tossup | Lean D | Baldwin 49.4% D |
Wyoming | R+25 | John Barrasso | 67.0% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Solid R | Barrasso 75.7% R |
Overall[q] | D/I - 45 R - 51 4 tossups |
D/I - 48 R - 51 1 tossup |
D/I - 48 R - 52 0 tossups |
D/I - 43 R - 50 7 tossups |
D/I - 49 R - 51 0 tossups |
D/I - 49 R - 51 0 tossups |
D/I - 46 R - 51 3 tossups |
D/I - 45 R - 51 4 tossups |
D/I - 48 R - 51 1 tossup |
Results: D/I - 47 R - 53 |
Gains and holds
Retirements
Nine senators announced plans to retire. Senator Dianne Feinstein had previously announced her intent to retire at the end of her term; however, she died on September 29, 2023.
Defeats
Three Democrats sought re-election but lost in the general election.
State | Senator | Replaced by |
---|---|---|
Montana | Jon Tester | Tim Sheehy |
Ohio | Sherrod Brown | Bernie Moreno |
Pennsylvania | Bob Casey Jr. | David McCormick |
Post-election changes
Two Republicans — Vice President-elect J.D. Vance and Secretary of State-designate Marco Rubio — are set to resign on or before January 20, 2025.
State | Senator | Replaced by | Ref |
---|---|---|---|
Ohio (Class 3) |
JD Vance | TBD | [41] |
Florida (Class 3) |
Marco Rubio | TBD | [42] |
Race summary
Special elections during the preceding Congress
In each special election, the winner's term begins immediately after their election is certified by their state's government.
Elections are sorted by date then state.
State | Incumbent | Status | Candidates[43] | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Senator | Party | Electoral history | |||
California (Class 1) |
Laphonza Butler | Democratic | 2023 (appointed) | Interim appointee retiring.[16] Democratic hold. Winner also elected to the next term; see below. |
|
Nebraska (Class 2) |
Pete Ricketts | Republican | 2023 (appointed) | Interim appointee elected. |
|
Elections leading to the next Congress
In these general elections, the winners will be elected for the term beginning January 3, 2025.
State | Incumbent | Candidates[43] | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Senator | Party | Electoral history | Result | ||
Arizona | Kyrsten Sinema | Independent | 2018[k] | Incumbent retiring.[15] Democratic gain. |
|
California | Laphonza Butler | Democratic | 2023 (appointed) | Interim appointee retiring.[16] Democratic hold. Winner also elected to finish the term; see above. |
|
Connecticut | Chris Murphy | Democratic | 2012 2018 |
Incumbent re-elected. |
|
Delaware | Tom Carper | Democratic | 2000 2006 2012 2018 |
Incumbent retiring.[11] Democratic hold. |
|
Florida | Rick Scott | Republican | 2018 | Incumbent re-elected. |
|
Hawaii | Mazie Hirono | Democratic | 2012 2018 |
Incumbent re-elected. |
|
Indiana | Mike Braun | Republican | 2018 | Incumbent retiring to run for governor.[9] Republican hold. |
|
Maine | Angus King | Independent | 2012 2018 |
Incumbent re-elected. |
|
Maryland | Ben Cardin | Democratic | 2006 2012 2018 |
Incumbent retiring.[10] Democratic hold. |
|
Massachusetts | Elizabeth Warren | Democratic | 2012 2018 |
Incumbent re-elected. |
|
Michigan | Debbie Stabenow | Democratic | 2000 2006 2012 2018 |
Incumbent retiring.[14] Democratic hold. |
|
Minnesota | Amy Klobuchar | DFL | 2006 2012 2018 |
Incumbent re-elected. |
|
Mississippi | Roger Wicker | Republican | 2007 (appointed) 2008 (special) 2012 2018 |
Incumbent re-elected. |
|
Missouri | Josh Hawley | Republican | 2018 | Incumbent re-elected. |
|
Montana | Jon Tester | Democratic | 2006 2012 2018 |
Incumbent lost re-election. Republican gain. |
|
Nebraska | Deb Fischer | Republican | 2012 2018 |
Incumbent re-elected. |
|
Nevada | Jacky Rosen | Democratic | 2018 | Incumbent re-elected.[44] |
|
New Jersey | George Helmy | Democratic | 2024 (appointed) | Interim appointee retiring.[17] Democratic hold. |
|
New Mexico | Martin Heinrich | Democratic | 2012 2018 |
Incumbent re-elected. |
|
New York | Kirsten Gillibrand | Democratic | 2009 (appointed) 2010 (special) 2012 2018 |
Incumbent re-elected. |
|
North Dakota | Kevin Cramer | Republican | 2018 | Incumbent re-elected. |
|
Ohio | Sherrod Brown | Democratic | 2006 2012 2018 |
Incumbent lost re-election. Republican gain. |
|
Pennsylvania | Bob Casey Jr. | Democratic | 2006 2012 2018 |
Incumbent lost re-election. Republican gain. |
|
Rhode Island | Sheldon Whitehouse | Democratic | 2006 2012 2018 |
Incumbent re-elected. |
|
Tennessee | Marsha Blackburn | Republican | 2018 | Incumbent re-elected. |
|
Texas | Ted Cruz | Republican | 2012 2018 |
Incumbent re-elected. |
|
Utah | Mitt Romney | Republican | 2018 | Incumbent retiring.[12] Republican hold. |
|
Vermont | Bernie Sanders | Independent | 2006 2012 2018 |
Incumbent re-elected. |
|
Virginia | Tim Kaine | Democratic | 2012 2018 |
Incumbent re-elected. |
|
Washington | Maria Cantwell | Democratic | 2000 2006 2012 2018 |
Incumbent re-elected. |
|
West Virginia | Joe Manchin | Independent | 2010 (special)[p] 2012 2018 |
Incumbent retiring.[13] Republican gain. |
|
Wisconsin | Tammy Baldwin | Democratic | 2012 2018 |
Incumbent re-elected. |
|
Wyoming | John Barrasso | Republican | 2007 (appointed) 2008 (special) 2012 2018 |
Incumbent re-elected. |
|
Closest races
Races that had a margin of victory under 10%:[43]
State | Party of winner | Margin |
---|---|---|
Pennsylvania | Republican (flip) | 0.25% |
Michigan | Democratic | 0.36% |
Wisconsin | Democratic | 0.86% |
Nevada | Democratic | 1.68% |
Arizona | Democratic | 2.38% |
Ohio | Republican (flip) | 3.78% |
Nebraska (regular) | Republican | 6.97% |
Montana | Republican (flip) | 7.13%[r] |
Texas | Republican | 8.64% |
Virginia | Democratic | 9.05% |
New Jersey | Democratic | 9.42% |
Arizona
| |||||||||||||||||
|
One-term independent Kyrsten Sinema was narrowly elected in 2018 as a Democrat with 50.0% of the vote. She left the Democratic Party in December 2022.[45] Sinema announced on March 5, 2024, that she would not run for reelection.[46]
Prior to her retirement announcement, Sinema was considered vulnerable to challengers from the Democratic Party due to her opposition to some of President Joe Biden's agenda,[47] and U.S. representative Ruben Gallego launched an early bid for the Democratic nomination, which he won with no opposition.[48][49]
Among Republicans, Pinal County sheriff Mark Lamb and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake have announced their candidacies.[50][51] Lake won the Republican primary by less than expected.
California
| ||||||||||||||||
|
Five-term Democrat Dianne Feinstein was reelected in 2018 with 54.2% of the vote against another Democrat. On February 14, 2023, Feinstein announced that she would not seek reelection to a sixth term.[52] However, she died on September 29, 2023, leaving the seat vacant. Democrat Laphonza Butler, president of EMILY's List, was appointed by California governor Gavin Newsom to succeed Feinstein on October 2, 2023.[53] Butler is not running for election to a full term, or for the final two months of the current term.[16]
There were three major Democratic candidates for the seat — U.S. representatives Barbara Lee, Katie Porter, and Adam Schiff — along with former professional baseball player Steve Garvey running as a Republican.[54][55][56][57][58] Schiff was viewed as representing the establishment wing of the Democratic Party, while Porter and Lee represent the progressive wing.[59]
Schiff and Garvey won the non-partisan primary election which took place on March 5, 2024, during Super Tuesday, setting up a general election campaign between the two.[59]
Due to California's election rules, similar to the previous election for the other seat, there will be two ballot items for the same seat: a general election, to elect a Class 1 senator to a full term beginning with the 119th United States Congress, to be sworn in on January 3, 2025; and a special election, to fill that seat for the final weeks of the 118th Congress.
Connecticut
| |||||||||||||||||
|
Two-term Democrat Chris Murphy was reelected in 2018 with 59.5% of the vote. He has announced he is running for a third term.[60] Beacon Falls First Selectman Gerry Smith announced his campaign in early February 2024.[61] The Republican primary was won by tavern owner Matthew Corey,[62] who was the Republican nominee in 2018.[63]
Delaware
| |||||||||||||||||
|
Four-term Democrat Tom Carper was reelected in 2018 with 60.0% of the vote. He announced on May 22, 2023, that he will be retiring, and will not run for a fifth term.[64]
Delaware's at-large U.S. representative Lisa Blunt Rochester is running for the Democratic nomination to succeed Carper, who endorsed her when he announced his retirement.[65][66]
Term-limited governor John Carney was also considered a possible Democratic candidate.[64][67] Carney announced that he is running for mayor of Wilmington.[68]
Among Republicans, businessman Eric Hansen has announced his candidacy.[69]
Florida
| |||||||||||||||||
|
Former governor and incumbent one-term Republican Rick Scott was narrowly elected in 2018 with 50.06% of the vote. He ran for reelection to a second term.[70] Brevard County assistant district attorney Keith Gross and actor John Columbus challenged Scott for the Republican nomination.[71][72] Primary elections took place on August 20, 2024.[73]
Scott won a second term, defeating Democratic former congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.[74]
Hawaii
| |||||||||||||||||
|
Two-term Democrat Mazie Hirono was reelected in 2018 with 71.2% of the vote. Hirono is running for a third term.[75] Former state representative Bob McDermott won a 6-candidate race to be the Republican nominee.[76]
Indiana
| |||||||||||||||||
|
One-term Republican Mike Braun was elected in 2018 with 50.8% of the vote. Braun is retiring to prepare to run for governor of Indiana.[9] U.S. representative Jim Banks ran unopposed in the primary after his only competition, businessman John Rust, was disqualified.[77]
Psychologist Valerie McCray defeated former state representative Marc Carmichael for the Democratic nomination.[78]
Maine
| |||||||||||||||||||||
|
Two-term Independent incumbent Angus King was reelected in 2018 with 54.3% of the vote in a three-candidate election. He intends to run for a third term, despite previously hinting that he may retire.[79]
Democratic consultant David Costello and dentist Demitroula Kouzounas, a former Maine Republican Party chair, each won their respective party primaries unopposed.[80] They will both face King in the general election in November.
Maryland
| |||||||||||||||||
|
Three-term Democrat Ben Cardin was reelected in 2018 with 64.9% of the vote. On May 1, 2023, Cardin announced he is not running for reelection.[81]
Prince George's County executive Angela Alsobrooks defeated U.S. representative David Trone for the Democratic nomination after a contentious primary, where Trone spent heavily from his personal wealth while Alsobrooks had the support of most elected Democrats.[82]
Former governor Larry Hogan easily defeated conservative former state delegate Robin Ficker for the Republican nomination.[83] A popular moderate known for his political independence, Hogan had previously declined to run,[84] but unexpectedly filed to run hours before the candidate filing deadline.[85]
Massachusetts
| |||||||||||||||||
|
Two-term Democrat Elizabeth Warren was reelected in 2018 with 60.3% of the vote. On March 27, 2023, Warren announced that she is running for reelection.[86]
Software company owner Robert Antonellis,[87] Quincy City Council president Ian Cain,[88] and attorney John Deaton[89] are running as Republicans.
Michigan
| |||||||||||||||||
|
Four-term Democrat Debbie Stabenow was reelected in 2018 with 52.3% of the vote. She announced on January 5, 2023, that she will retire, and will not run for a fifth term.[14]
Representative Elissa Slotkin,[90] and state representative Leslie Love[91] have announced their candidacies for the Democratic nomination. Businessman and 2006 Republican candidate for this seat Nasser Beydoun has also declared his candidacy as a Democrat.[92] Actor Hill Harper announced his campaign for the Democratic nomination in July 2023.[93]
The primary took place on August 6, 2024. Former U.S. representatives Mike Rogers, Justin Amash, and hedge fund manager Sandy Pensler[94] ran for the Republican nomination.[95][96][97][98]
Representative John James, the Republican nominee for this seat in 2018 and for Michigan's other Senate seat in 2020, declined to run.[99]
The nominees are Slotkin and Rogers, who easily won their primaries as expected.
Minnesota
| |||||||||||||||||
|
Three-term Democrat Amy Klobuchar was reelected in 2018 with 60.3% of the vote. She is running for a fourth term.[75]
In the August 13 Republican primary, former NBA basketball player Royce White won an eight-candidate primary with 38% of the vote, with banker and retired U.S. Navy commander Joe Fraser finishing second with 29% of the vote[100] Third-party candidates consist of guardianship advocate and Republican candidate for governor in 2022, Independence-Alliance Party candidate, Joyce Lacy.[101]
Mississippi
| |||||||||||||||||
|
Two-term Republican Roger Wicker was reelected in 2018 with 58.5% of the vote. Wicker is running for a third full term. He faced a primary challenge from conservative state representative Dan Eubanks and won by a comfortable margin.[102] Wicker will face Democratic lawyer Ty Pinkins in the general election.[103]
Missouri
| |||||||||||||||||
|
One-term Republican Josh Hawley was elected in 2018 with 51.4% of the vote. He is running for reelection.[104]
Marine veteran Lucas Kunce, who ran unsuccessfully for the Class III seat in 2022, won the Democratic nomination on August 6, 2024.[105]
Montana
| |||||||||||||||||
|
Three-term Democrat Jon Tester was narrowly reelected in 2018 with 50.3% of the vote. On February 22, 2023, he announced he is running for a fourth term. Tester is one of two Democratic senators running for reelection who represent states won by Republican Donald Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.[106]
Businessman and former Navy SEAL officer Tim Sheehy won the Republican nomination.[107] U.S. representative Matt Rosendale, also a Republican, ran against Sheehy for the nomination in February,[108] but withdrew from the race days later.[109] Sheehy defeated Tester in the general election, marking the first since 1911 that the Republican Party controlled both of Montana's senate seats.
Nebraska
There were be two elections in Nebraska, due to the resignation of Ben Sasse.
Nebraska (regular)
| |||||||||||||||||
|
Two-term Republican Deb Fischer was reelected in 2018 with 57.7% of the vote. On May 14, 2021, Fischer announced she is seeking reelection, despite previously declaring an intention to retire.[110]
Dan Osborn, a union leader and steamfitter, is running as an independent. Since Osborn declared, the Democratic Party fielded no candidates in order to endorse him, but he stated he would accept the help of no parties.[111]
Nebraska (special)
| |||||||||||||||||
|
Two-term Republican Ben Sasse resigned his seat on January 8, 2023, to become president of the University of Florida.[112][18] Former governor and 2006 Senate nominee Pete Ricketts was appointed by Governor Jim Pillen and a special election for the seat will take place concurrently with the 2024 regular Senate elections. Ricketts defeated Air Force veteran John Glen Weaver for the Republican nomination.[113] Former University of Nebraska Omaha professor Preston Love Jr. is running as a Democrat.[114]
Nevada
| |||||||||||||||||
|
One-term Democrat Jacky Rosen was elected in 2018 with 50.4% of the vote. Rosen is running for a second term.[75]
Veteran and 2022 Senate candidate Sam Brown was declared the Republican nominee after winning the June 11 primary.[115] Brown easily won against former ambassador to Iceland Jeffrey Ross Gunter and former state assemblyman Jim Marchant, among others.
New Jersey
| |||||||||||||||||
|
Democrat Bob Menendez was reelected in 2018 with 54.0% of the vote. On July 13, 2021, The New Jersey Globe reported that Menendez planned to run for a fourth full term.[116][117] On September 22, 2023, Menendez was indicted on federal bribery charges.[118] On March 14, 2024, a week after his planned retirement, Menendez reversed his decision and attempted to run for re-election as an Independent candidate.[119] Following his conviction on July 16, he announced that he would resign on August 20 and suspend his candidacy.[120][121] Governor Phil Murphy announced that day he would appoint George Helmy, his former chief of staff, to serve as the caretaker before the election.[122]
Financier and current first lady of New Jersey Tammy Murphy also ran for the Democratic nomination, but ended her campaign in March 2024.[123]
Mendham mayor Christine Serrano Glassner[124] and real estate developer Curtis Bashaw[125] ran for the Republican nomination.[126] On June 4, 2024, Bashaw won the Republican primary in an upset.[127]
New Mexico
| |||||||||||||||||
|
Two-term Democrat Martin Heinrich was reelected in 2018 with 54.1% of the vote in a three-candidate race. He is running for a third term.[128] Hedge fund executive Nella Domenici, daughter of Pete Domenici, senator from 1973 to 2009, announced her candidacy for the Republican nomination on January 17, 2024.[129]
New York
| ||||||||||||||||||||
|
Two-term Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand was reelected in 2018 with 67.0% of the vote. She is running for a third full term.[130]
Former New York City Police detective Mike Sapraicone has declared his candidacy as a Republican.[131]
North Dakota
| |||||||||||||||||
|
One-term Republican Kevin Cramer was elected in 2018 with 55.1% of the vote. Cramer is running for re-election.[132]
Democrat Katrina Christiansen, an engineering professor from the University of Jamestown and candidate for the Senate in 2022 is her party's nominee.[133]
Ohio
| |||||||||||||||||
|
Three-term Democrat Sherrod Brown was reelected in 2018 with 53.4% of the vote. Brown is running for a fourth term. He is also one of two Democratic senators running for reelection who represent states won by Republican Donald Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.[134]
The Republican nominee is businessman Bernie Moreno, who defeated state senator Matt Dolan and secretary of state Frank LaRose in the primary election.[135]
Moreno defeated Brown in the general election 50.2% to 46.4%.
Pennsylvania
| |||||||||||||||||
|
Three-term Democrat Bob Casey Jr., was reelected in 2018 with 55.7% of the vote. Casey was running for a fourth term.[136] He was challenged by engineer Blaine Forkner.[137]
2022 Senate candidate David McCormick was the Republican nominee.[138] McCormick won from Casey by 48.8% to 48.6% in the November 5, 2024 general election.[139] Initially, despite the Associated Press calling the race for McCormick, Casey refused to concede the race due to unknown numbers of outstanding provisional ballots in primarily urban areas.[140] Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer originally did not invite McCormick to the “New Senator Orientation Event,” however Schumer relented after criticism from Republicans and independent Arizona senator Kyrsten Sinema.[141][142] Casey eventually conceded on November 21 and McCormick was officially declared the winner.
Rhode Island
| |||||||||||||||||
|
Three-term Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse was reelected in 2018 with 61.4% of the vote. He is running for a fourth term. Republicans who have announced their candidacies include state representative Patricia Morgan[143] and IT professional Raymond McKay.[144]
Tennessee
| |||||||||||||||||
|
One-term Republican Marsha Blackburn was elected in 2018 with 54.7% of the vote. Blackburn has filed paperwork to run for reelection. The Democratic nominee is state representative Gloria Johnson.[145]
Texas
| |||||||||||||||||
|
Ted Cruz ran for a third Senate term.[146] He faced Democratic nominee Colin Allred, a former NFL player and congressman, who defeated state senator Roland Gutierrez and state representative Carl Sherman in the primary election.[147][148][149] Cruz defeated Allred on November 5, 2024, by 53.1% to 44.5%.[150]
Utah
| |||||||||||||||||||||
|
One-term Republican Mitt Romney was elected in 2018 with 62.6% of the vote. On September 13, 2023, Romney announced he would not seek reelection in 2024.[151]
The Republican nominee is U.S. representative John Curtis,[152] who defeated Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs,[153] and state House speaker Brad Wilson,[154] in the primary election.
The Democratic nominee is professional skier Caroline Gleich.[155]
Vermont
| |||||||||||||||||
|
Three-term independent Bernie Sanders was re-elected in 2018 with 67.4% of the vote. He is being challenged by artist Cris Ericson, an independent perennial candidate.[156] Businessman Gerald Malloy, who was the Republican nominee for the Senate in 2022, secured the Republican nomination unopposed.[157]
Virginia
| |||||||||||||||||
|
Two-term Democrat Tim Kaine was reelected in 2018 with 57.0% of the vote. On January 20, 2023, he confirmed he is running for reelection to a third term.[158] Governor Glenn Youngkin, who will be term-limited in 2025, was considered a possible Republican candidate.[159]
On July 18, 2023, Navy veteran Hung Cao announced he would run as a Republican. Cao unsuccessfully ran for the U.S. House of Representatives against Democrat Jennifer Wexton in 2022.[160]
Washington
| ||||||||||||||||
|
Four-term Democrat Maria Cantwell was reelected in 2018 with 58.3% of the vote.
Emergency room physician Raul Garcia announced that he would run as a Republican.[161]
West Virginia
| |||||||||||||||||
|
Independent Joe Manchin, who was elected as a Democrat, was re-elected in 2018 with 49.6% of the vote. On November 9, 2023, Manchin announced he would not seek re-election.[13] Since Manchin announced his retirement, all major outlets have rated this seat as expected to flip to GOP control, which would put this seat in Republican hands for the first time in 68 years.
Popular governor Jim Justice easily defeated U.S. representative Alex Mooney[162] in the Republican primary.
Wheeling mayor Glenn Elliott, who has Manchin's endorsement,[163] defeated community organizer and U.S. Marine Corps veteran Zachary Shrewsbury and former coal executive Don Blankenship in the primary for the Democratic Party nomination.[164]
Wisconsin
| |||||||||||||||||
|
Two-term Democrat Tammy Baldwin was reelected in 2018 with 55.4% of the vote. She is running for reelection.[165] Hedge fund manager Eric Hovde, candidate for the Senate in 2012, announced a second attempt at the Republican nomination. Former Milwaukee County sheriff David Clarke[166] was seen as a potential Republican challenger to Hovde's bid, but never ended up beginning a campaign for Senate.[167][168]
Wyoming
| |||||||||||||||||
|
Republican John Barrasso was reelected in 2018 with 67.0% of the vote. On April 19, 2024, Barrasso announced he would run for reelection.[169] Former Postal Union president Scott Morrow is the Democratic nominee.[170]
Barrasso easily defeated his Republican primary challengers John Holtz and Reid Rasner on August 20, 2024.[171]
See also
Notes
- ^ Majority control in an evenly divided Senate is determined by the Vice President of the United States, who has the power to break tied votes in their constitutional capacity as President of the Senate; accordingly, Senate control requires 51 seats or 50 seats with control of the vice presidency.
- ^ The U.S. vice president, who will be determined in 2024, breaks ties in a 50–50 Senate. Republicans need 50 seats if they win the vice presidency or 51 if they do not.
- ^ a b All 4 independent senators (Bernie Sanders of Vermont, Angus King of Maine, Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, and Joe Manchin of West Virginia) caucus with the Senate Democrats.[2][3]
- ^ a b Both independent senators (Bernie Sanders of Vermont, and Angus King of Maine) caucus with the Senate Democrats.
- ^ Before the end of the 117th Congress, Kyrsten Sinema left the Democratic Party, and became an independent. She later announced her retirement in March 2024.[24] In May 2024, Joe Manchin also announced he had left the Democratic Party, and registered as an independent, citing "broken politics" as the deciding factor in his decision.[25]
- ^ a b c d Included two interim appointees, Laphonza Butler (California) and George Helmy (New Jersey), who did not seek election.
- ^ a b The Independent Democrat incumbent Senators, Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin, decided not to run re-election.
- ^ a b Included the interim appointee from Nebraska (Pete Ricketts) running for election.
- ^ Appointee elected
- ^ The last elections for this group of senators were in 2018, except for those elected in a special election or who were appointed after the resignation or death of a sitting senator, as noted.
- ^ a b Sinema was elected as a Democrat, and switched to being an independent in December 2022.
- ^ In both the regular election and the special election.
- ^ Democrat Dianne Feinstein won with 54.2% of the vote in 2018 against a fellow Democrat, but died in office on September 29, 2023.
- ^ Republican Ben Sasse won with 62.7% of the vote in 2020, but resigned January 8, 2023, to become president of the University of Florida.
- ^ Democrat Bob Menendez won with 54.0% of the vote in 2018, but resigned August 20, 2024, due to criminal convictions.[40]
- ^ a b Manchin was elected as a Democrat, and switched to being an independent in May 2024.
- ^ Democratic total includes Independents who caucus with the Democrats.
- ^ Montana was the "tipping-point state".
- ^ In October 2023, Butler was appointed by Governor Gavin Newsom to fill the vacancy caused by the death of Senator Dianne Feinstein.
References
- ^ a b c "2024 General Election 119th Senate Popular Vote and FEC Total Receipts by Party", The Green Papers, November 22, 2024. Retrieved November 22, 2024.
- ^ 2023 Congressional Record, Vol. 169, Page S22 (January 3, 2023)
- ^ Svitek, Patrick. "Manchin changes party registration to independent, fueling speculation". Washington Post. Retrieved June 1, 2024.
Manchin joins three other members of the Senate who identify as independents: Senators Bernie Sanders (Vermont), Angus King (Maine) and Kyrsten Sinema (Arizona), who caucus with Democrats. A Manchin spokesperson said he will continue to caucus with the Democrats.
- ^ "Class I - Senators Whose Term of Service Expire in 2025". United States Senate. Retrieved August 30, 2024.
Class I terms run from the beginning of the 116th Congress on January 3, 2019, to the end of the 118th Congress on January 3, 2025. Senators in Class I were elected to office in the November 2018 general election, unless they took their seat through appointment or special election.
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- ^ Weaver, Al; Manchester, Julia (June 14, 2023). "Republicans face tough bid to oust Baldwin in Wisconsin Senate race". The Hill. Archived from the original on June 16, 2023. Retrieved June 16, 2023.
- ^ Engel, Ivy (April 19, 2024). "Senator John Barrasso announces a run for re-election". Wyoming Public Media. Retrieved June 7, 2024.
- ^ "The Road to Cheyenne: northeast races and the Republicans trying to oust Barrasso". Wyoming Public Media. July 12, 2024. Retrieved July 31, 2024.
- ^ Wolfson, Leo (August 20, 2024). "Barrasso Cruises To Easy Victory In Primary Election". Cowboy State Daily. Retrieved August 20, 2024.