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| previous_election = 2021 German federal election
| previous_election = 2021 German federal election
| previous_year = 2021
| previous_year = 2021
| election_date = 28 September 2025{{efn|Following the revocation of confidence on 16 December 2024, elections are expected to be moved to 23 February 2025 pending a dissolution of the Bundestag no earlier than 25 December.}}
| election_date = 23 February 2025 {{efn|Following the revocation of confidence on 16 December 2024, elections are expected to be moved to 23 February 2025 pending a dissolution of the Bundestag no earlier than 25 December.}}
| next_election = 2029 German federal election
| next_election = 2029 German federal election
| next_year = ''2029''
| next_year = ''2029''

Revision as of 10:24, 17 December 2024

2025 German federal election
← 2021 23 February 2025 [a] 2029 →
All 630 seats in the Bundestag
316 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Olaf Scholz and Gustavo Petro in New York 2024 (cropped).jpg
Friedrich_Merz_2024.jpg
Robert Habeck 2024 (cropped).jpg
Candidate Olaf Scholz Friedrich Merz Robert Habeck[b]
Party SPD CDU/CSU Greens
Last election 25.7%, 206 seats 24.1%, 197 seats 14.8%, 118 seats
 
2020-02-14 Christian Lindner (Bundestagsprojekt 2020) by Sandro Halank–2.jpg
2019-09-01 Wahlabend Sachsen by Sandro Halank–039.jpg
Jan van Aken 2023 (cropped).jpg
Heidi Reichinnek.png
Candidate Christian Lindner Alice Weidel Jan van Aken &
Heidi Reichinnek
Party FDP AfD Left
Last election 11.4%, 91 seats 10.4%, 83 seats 4.9%, 39 seats
A map of Bundestag constituencies to be used at the next election.
Incumbent Government

Scholz cabinet
SPD–Green–FDP[c]



Federal elections in Germany will be held in 2025 to elect the members of the 21st Bundestag. Originally scheduled for September 2025, the elections are expected to be brought forward to 23 February due to the collapse of the governing coalition, sometimes referred to in Germany as the traffic light coalition, during the 2024 German government crisis. If it is brought forward, the 2025 election will be the fourth snap election in the history of post-war Germany after those in 1972, 1983 and 2005.

Background

Date assignment

The Basic Law and the Federal Election Act provide that federal elections must be held on a Sunday or on a national holiday[d] no earlier than 46 and no later than 48 months after the first sitting of a Bundestag, unless the Bundestag is dissolved earlier. The 20th and sitting Bundestag held its first sitting on 26 October 2021.[1] Therefore, the next regular election was to take place on a Sunday between 31 August 2025 and 26 October 2025. In August 2024, the Federal Cabinet recommended 28 September 2025 as the date of the election, which was approved by President Frank-Walter Steinmeier.[2]

Snap election

See also: 2024 German government crisis

Federal elections can be held earlier if the President dissolves the Bundestag and schedules a snap election. They may only do so under two possible scenarios described by the Basic Law.

  1. After a general election or any other vacancy in the chancellor's office, if the Bundestag fails to elect a chancellor with an absolute majority of its members on the 15th day after the first ballot, the president is free to either appoint the candidate who received a plurality of votes as chancellor or to dissolve the Bundestag (in accordance with Article 63, Section 4 of the Basic Law).
  2. If the chancellor proposes a motion of confidence which fails, they may ask the president to dissolve the Bundestag. The president is free to grant or to deny the chancellor's request (in accordance with Article 68 of the Basic Law).

In both cases, federal elections would have to take place on a Sunday or national holiday no later than 60 days after the dissolution.[3][4][e]

Following a government crisis, FDP leader Christian Lindner was dismissed from the incumbent government by Olaf Scholz on 6 November 2024, triggering the collapse of the traffic light coalition and leaving the government without a majority. On the same day, Chancellor Scholz announced he would submit a motion of confidence in order to hold a snap election; this was initially planned for January 2025 but was brought forward after pressure from the opposition.[5][6][7]

Scholz submitted a motion of confidence to the Bundestag on 11 December 2024, which was brought to a vote on 16 December.[8] The motion required an absolute majority of 367 yes votes to pass, and failed with 207 yes votes, 394 no votes, 116 abstentions, and 16 absent or not voting.[4] Of those members who were present and voting, the SPD bloc unanimously voted for confidence, while all opposition blocs except for three members from the AfD voted against confidence. All Green members abstained to ensure the motion would fail without voting against its own coalition.[9]

Immediately after the vote's failure, Scholz went to Bellevue Palace to meet with President Steinmeier and recommend a dissolution. The governing parties and the CDU/CSU agreed that 23 February 2025 should be the date for the snap election. President Steinmeier has 21 days to act on the recommendation. As new elections must take place within 60 days of a dissolution, Steinmeier is expected to wait until 27 December to do so in order to honor the agreed-upon date.[10][11][12] Steinmeier has pledged to talk to all party leaders before making a decision, recognizing that he has a constitutional duty to determine whether there is any possible majority in the current Bundestag.[13]

Electoral system

Germany has a mixed-member proportional electoral system. Voters have two votes: the first vote is used to directly elect a candidate in their own first-past-the-post constituency, and the second vote is for a party's electoral list. To enter the Bundestag, a party must either get five percent of the nationwide second vote (the Fünf-Prozent-Hürde, five-percent hurdle) or win three constituencies. Both cases result in that party entering the Bundestag, and it receives list seats in addition to any constituency seats it has won such that its bloc is proportional to its nationwide share of the second vote.

2023 reform

Prior to this election, if a party won enough constituencies in a state to exceed its proportional entitlement, it was allowed to keep the so-called overhang seats. The addition of leveling seats for other parties, in order to keep the composition of the Bundestag proportional, led to a large amount of additional seats in 2017 and 2021.

After the 2021 election produced a Bundestag with 736 members – which made it the largest freely elected parliament in the world – renewed debate began over the system that had been in place since the 2013 election. The Bundestag passed a reform law in March 2023 to fix the size of future Bundestags at 630 members. It introduced two changes: The seat distribution would be determined solely through each party's share of the second vote (Zweitstimmendeckung, "second vote coverage") and the elimination of the three-constituency rule (Grundmandatsklausel, "basic mandate clause"). Parties are no longer allowed to keep overhang seats; if a party wins overhang seats in a state, its constituency winners are excluded from the Bundestag in decreasing order of their first vote share.[14]

Both the CSU and The Left opposed the law due to the elimination of the basic mandate clause. In the 2021 election, The Left fell short of the five-percent threshold but remained in the Bundestag because it won three constituencies, whereas the CSU barely crossed the threshold with 5.2% of the nationwide second vote while winning 45 constituencies in Bavaria. Both parties appealed to President Steinmeier to veto it; nevertheless, Steinmeier signed the bill after personally determining he believed it was constitutional.[15][16] Both party organizations, as well as the government of Bavaria controlled by the CSU, filed formal complaints to the Federal Constitutional Court.[17][18]

Hearings were held on 23 and 24 April 2024. On 30 July 2024, the court largely upheld the new electoral law. However, it ruled that a five-percent threshold without any exceptions is unconstitutional; though it recognized the threshold is necessary to prevent fragmentation, it held there must be measures to minimize wasted votes. In order to settle electoral law in sufficient time for this election, the court did not order the Bundestag to modify the law and instead re-introduced the basic mandate clause as an interim measure. The Bundestag is free to change, reduce, or abolish the five-percent hurdle (in conformance with the ruling) for future elections.[14]

Political parties and leaders

See also: List of political parties in Germany

The table below lists the parties represented in the 20th Bundestag.

Parties Leader(s) Leading candidate(s) Ideology Seats Status
Last election Before election
Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 		Saskia Esken
Lars Klingbeil 		Olaf Scholz Social democracy
206 / 736
207 / 733
 Governing coalition
CDU/CSU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 		Friedrich Merz Friedrich Merz[19] Christian democracy
152 / 736
153 / 733
 Opposition
Christian Social Union in Bavaria
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 		Markus Söder
45 / 736
43 / 733
Alliance 90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 		Franziska Brantner
Felix Banaszak 		Robert Habeck[20] Green politics
118 / 736
117 / 733
 Governing coalition
Free Democratic Party
Freie Demokratische Partei 		Christian Lindner Christian Lindner[21] Liberalism
91 / 736
90 / 733
 Opposition
Alternative for Germany
Alternative für Deutschland 		Alice Weidel
Tino Chrupalla 		Alice Weidel[22] Right-wing populism
83 / 736
76 / 733
The Left
Die Linke 		Ines Schwerdtner
Jan van Aken 		Heidi Reichinnek
Jan van Aken[23] 		Democratic socialism
39 / 736
28 / 733
Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht 		Sahra Wagenknecht
Amira Mohamed Ali 		Sahra Wagenknecht Left-wing populism
Cultural conservatism
0 / 736
10 / 733
Ungrouped SSW Christian Dirschauer Stefan Seidler Danish minority interests
Frisian minority interests
1 / 736
1 / 733
AfD Matthias Helferich — —
0 / 736
1 / 733
Independent — — —
0 / 736
7 / 733

Campaign

Nominations and lead candidates

In contrast to the 2021 election, the Kanzlerfrage (chancellor question) for the CDU/CSU bloc was resolved relatively quickly. After good performances for the CDU in September 2024 state elections in Saxony and Thuringia, the two other prospective candidates – North Rhine-Westphalia Minister-President Hendrik Wüst and Bavaria Minister-President and CSU leader Markus Söder – expressed their full support for Friedrich Merz.[24][25] Söder was thought to pursue another attempt at the nomination; many CDU rank-and-file, however, saw him in a negative light after a months-long battle with Armin Laschet for the nomination in 2021, followed by personal attacks on Laschet that were seen as undermining the Union campaign, as well as his categorical ruling-out of any coalition with the Greens after this election.[26] (The CSU has still only provided the Union bloc's lead candidate twice: in 1980 and 2002.)

At The Left's party convention in October, former lead candidate Gregor Gysi announced an effort called Mission Silberlocke ("Mission Silver Locks") to bolster the party's prospects in the face of infighting and faltering polling. Gysi committed to run for re-election in his constituency of Berlin-Treptow – Köpenick, with former parliamentary group leader Dietmar Bartsch running for a third time in Rostock – Landkreis Rostock II and former Minister-President of Thuringia Bodo Ramelow – the only Left member to have led a state government – contesting a Bundestag seat for the first time since 2005 in Erfurt – Weimar – Weimarer Land II. The goal is to capitalize on the three men's relatively high personal popularities and give The Left the best chance possible to win three constituencies and ensure they remain in the Bundestag, and the effort is nicknamed in humorous reference to the their advanced ages. Party co-leader Ines Schwerdtner is also running to replace the retiring longtime MdB Gesine Lötzsch in the stronghold of Berlin-Lichtenberg and parliamentary co-eader Sören Pellmann is seeking re-election in Leipzig II, which are both seen as likely holds for The Left. Experts also rated Gysi and Ramelow as favorites to win their respective constituencies, which combined would retain the bloc's representation.[27][28] Jan van Aken was elected party co-chair alongside Schwerdtner on the same day; however, in November, van Aken and parliamentary co-leader Heidi Reichinnek were selected as the The Left's dual lead candidacy for the campaign.[29]

In November, various SPD legislators and leading figures – most prominently former party leader Sigmar Gabriel – began publicly calling for defence minister Boris Pistorius to be designated the party's chancellor candidate owing to its and Scholz's poor polling.[30] Polling for ARD showed Pistorius as the most favorably viewed national politician: 60% of voters thought he would be a good chancellor, compared to 42% for Merz and 21% for Scholz.[31] In a video released on 21 November, Pistorius ended what had become two weeks of public debate by disavowing any interest in running for chancellor and expressing his full support for Scholz.[32] Such a protracted and public debate, and party leadership's apparent inability to quickly control or restrain it, was seen as embarrassing and damaging; Jusos president Philipp Türmer directly called out party leaders Saskia Esken and Lars Klingbeil for the "shitshow" at their national congress the following weekend. Nonetheless, Scholz was unanimously renominated as chancellor candidate by the party's executive on 25 November, which will be confirmed at the party's national convention in January.[33]

On 17 November, the Greens nominated sitting vice chancellor Robert Habeck as its chancellor candidate; Habeck and foreign minister Annalena Baerbock remain their co-lead candidates, though Baerbock was the chancellor candidate in 2021.[34]

On 7 December, the AfD executive nominated Alice Weidel as its chancellor candidate. This is the first time the party has referred to its leader as a chancellor candidate (Kanzlerkandidat/in), a term which is normally reserved for the parties (SPD, Greens and CDU/CSU) which are seen as having a realistic chance of becoming a senior coalition partner and providing a chancellor, instead of the term lead candidate (Spitzenkandidat/in) which is normally used for smaller parties. The AfD has no path to enter government as no other parties are willing to work with it.[35][36]

BSW also decided to nominate Sahra Wagenknecht as a chancellor candidate on 16 December. General secretary Christian Heye flatly conceded the party, which was polling between four and eight percent at the time, had no actual chance of providing a chancellor and said that "we are neither imagining things nor are we megalomanical". He blamed the "inflation" of the term's usage in forcing their hand to avoid a perceived disadvantage in the campaign.[37]

FDP "D-Day" paper

On 15 November, Die Zeit and Süddeutsche Zeitung independently reported that the FDP had been planning a strategy to break the coalition for several weeks.[38][39] They reported on the existence of a detailed working paper which used controversial militaristic language: the 18-page economic report that resulted in Lindner's firing was called "the torpedo", and the upcoming election campaign was described as "open battle". Most contentious was that the day of the report's publication was referred to as "D-Day" – which in German is used exclusively in reference to the Allied invasion of Normandy and has a violent connotation, whereas the equivalent generic term for "decision day" would be Tag X. The use of the language of war to refer to the political process led to heavy criticism.[40][41]

This also contradicted Lindner's assertion that the end of the government was a "calculated break" on the part of Scholz.[40] Criticism came from the SPD upon the revelation that their coalition partner had apparently not been acting in good faith for weeks: parliamentary leader Rolf Mützenich described himself as "feeling deceived and disappointed" and "horrified" by the controversial language.[42] In an 18 November interview with RTL and n-tv, FDP general secretary Bijan Djir-Sarai flatly denied the use of the term "D-Day" and stated the party's leadership was not aware of the paper. Lindner did not deny the paper's existence but simply replied to reporters "We are in a campaign. Where is the news here?"[42]

Media speculation continued as to what degree the FDP was responsible for the coalition's end. On the morning of 28 November, the online news portal Table.Media published excerpts of an 8-page document alleged to be the working paper; it was indeed titled "D-Day Scenarios and Actions" and laid out a strategy as detailed as the original reporting surmised, including strategies to undermine the coalition, communication tactics, and pre-written quotations for Lindner. SZ confronted party leaders with the excerpts and gave them a 1:30 p.m. deadline to respond to questions. The party did not, but instead officially released the full paper at 6 p.m. with a statement from Djir-Sarai claiming it was "to prevent false impressions...of the paper" by the media.[43]

According to the party, the paper was first prepared by Federal Managing Director Carsten Reymann on 24 October "to deal with the questions surrounding how the exit of the FDP from the government could be communicated", and the "purely technical paper" was not presented to legislators or members of the government.[44] Djir-Sarai and Reymann resigned the next day to take responsibility for the paper's contents. SPD acting general secretary Matthias Miersch described Djir-Sarai as "a transparent scapegoat" to protect Lindner and called it "unimaginable" that the party leader would not know of the paper's existence.[45] In a written statement released that evening, Lindner again denied any knowledge of the paper and stated he would not have approved of it, and that it was only circulated among internal party staffers and not any elected officials.[46]

Marco Buschmann, who served as justice minister until the traffic light coalition's collapse, took over as the FDP's general secretary.[47]

Members of Parliament standing down

Name Party State Constituency Member since Ref.
Andreas Rimkus SPD North Rhine-Westphalia Düsseldorf II 2013 [48]
Peter Ramsauer CSU Bavaria Traunstein 1990 [49]
Renate Künast Green Berlin N/A 2002 [50]
Niels Annen SPD Hamburg Hamburg-Eimsbüttel 2005 [51]
Sarah Ryglewski SPD Bremen N/A 2017 [52]
Annette Widmann-Mauz CDU Baden-Württemberg Tübingen 1998 [53]
Yvonne Magwas CDU Saxony N/A 2013 [54]
Nadine Schön CDU Saarland St. Wendel 2009 [55]
Michelle Müntefering SPD North Rhine-Westphalia Herne – Bochum II 2013 [56]
Markus Grübel CDU Baden-Württemberg N/A 2002 [57]
Andreas Scheuer CSU Bavaria Passau 2002 [58]
Kai Gehring Green North Rhine-Westphalia N/A 2005 [59]
Sönke Rix SPD Schleswig-Holstein N/A 2005 [60]
Manuela Rottmann Green Bavaria N/A 2017 [61]
Volkmar Klein CDU North Rhine-Westphalia Siegen-Wittgenstein 2009 [62]
Paul Lehrieder CSU Bavaria Würzburg 2005 [63]
Christoph Hoffmann CDU Baden-Württemberg N/A 2017 [64]
Katrin Budde SPD Saxony-Anhalt N/A 2017 [65]
Dietmar Nietan SPD North Rhine-Westphalia N/A 2005 [66]
Michael Gerdes SPD North Rhine-Westphalia N/A 2009 [67]
Tabea Rößner Green Rhineland-Palatinate N/A 2009 [68]
Kordula Schulz-Asche Green Hesse N/A 2017 [63]
Erwin Rüddel CDU Rhineland-Palatinate N/A 2009 [69]
Heike Baehrens SPD Baden-Württemberg N/A 2013 [70]
Michael Roth SPD Hesse Werra-Meißner – Hersfeld-Rotenburg 1998 [71]
Thomas Hitschler SPD Rhineland-Palatinate Südpfalz 2013 [72]
Astrid Damerow CDU Schleswig-Holstein N/A 2017 [73]
Tobias Lindner Green Rhineland-Palatinate N/A 2011 [74]
Martin Rosemann SPD Baden-Württemberg N/A 2013 [75]
Sven-Christian Kindler Green Lower Saxony N/A 2017 [76]
Oliver Grundmann CDU Lower Saxony N/A 2013 [77]
Christine Aschenberg-Dugnus FDP Schleswig-Holstein N/A 2017 [63]
Maria Klein-Schmeink Green North Rhine-Westphalia N/A 2017 [78]
Dagmar Andres SPD North Rhine-Westphalia Euskirchen – Rhein-Erft-Kreis II 2021 [79]
Michael Grosse-Brömer CDU Lower Saxony Harburg 2002 [80]
Hermann Gröhe CDU North Rhine-Westphalia Neuss I 1994 [81]
Udo Schiefner SPD North Rhine-Westphalia N/A 2013 [82]
Max Straubinger CSU Bavaria N/A 1994 [83]
Bernd Westphal SPD Lower Saxony N/A 2013 [84]
Beate Walter-Rosenheimer Green Bavaria N/A 2012 [85]
Marco Wanderwitz CDU Saxony N/A 2002 [86]
Albrecht Glaser AfD Hesse N/A 2017 [87]
Gesine Lötzsch Left Berlin Berlin-Lichtenberg 2002 [88]

Opinion polls

Main article: Opinion polling for the 2025 German federal election
Local regression of polls conducted

The following shows the latest opinion poll from each polling firm.

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size 		Abs. SPD Union Grüne FDP AfD Linke FW BSW Others Lead
Wahlkreisprognose 14–16 Dec 2024 1,500 20 29 15 4.5 17 2.5 3 5 4 9
INSA 13–16 Dec 2024 2,002 – 16.5 31.5 11.5 5 19.5 2.5 – 8 5.5 12
Forsa 3–9 Dec 2024 2,501 – 17 31 13 4 18 3 – 4 10 13
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 3–5 Dec 2024 1,433 17 15 33 14 4 17 3 – 5 9 16
Infratest dimap 2–4 Dec 2024 1,307 – 16 32 14 4 18 3 – 5 8 14
YouGov 29 Nov – 3 Dec 2024 1,879 – 18 30 13 4 19 3 1 7 6 11
GMS 27 Nov – 2 Dec 2024 1,005 – 15 34 13 4 17 3 2 6 6 17
Ipsos 29 Nov – 1 Dec 2024 1,000 – 16 32 13 3 18 3 3 7 5 14
Verian 20–26 Nov 2024 1,432 – 15 32 13 4 18 3 – 6 9 14
Allensbach 2–14 Nov 2024 1,049 – 15 37 10 4 17 – – 7.5 9.5 20

Notes

  1. ^ Following the revocation of confidence on 16 December 2024, elections are expected to be moved to 23 February 2025 pending a dissolution of the Bundestag no earlier than 25 December.
  2. ^ Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck are co-lead candidates, while Habeck is candidate for Chancellor as "Candidate for the people in Germany" (German: Kandidat für die Menschen in Deutschland).
  3. ^ Only SPD and Grüne remained in government following Christian Lindner's dismissal.
  4. ^ In Germany, with the exception of the German Unity Day, all holidays are determined on the state level, and because of that, they do not necessarily apply for all German states. Currently, legal holidays in all states are New Year's Day, Good Friday, Easter Monday, Labour Day, Ascension Day, Whit Monday, German Unity Day, First Christmas Day, and Second Christmas Day (Boxing Day).
  5. ^ Possibility 1 has not happened since 1949; possibility 2 has been used a total of four times (in 1972, 1982, 2005, and this election).

References

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  19. ^ "Merz wird Kanzlerkandidat der Union – Söder zieht sich zurück" [Merz becomes the Union's candidate for chancellor - Söder withdraws]. Der Spiegel (in German). 17 September 2024. ISSN 2195-1349. Archived from the original on 17 September 2024. Retrieved 17 September 2024.
  20. ^ Deiß, Matthias. "So begründet Habeck seine Kanzlerkandidatur" [This is how Habeck justifies his candidacy for chancellor]. tagesschau.de (in German). Archived from the original on 8 November 2024. Retrieved 8 November 2024.
  21. ^ "FDP-Chef Lindner will seine Partei erneut als Spitzenkandidat in die Bundestagswahl führen Der FDP-Chef Lindner hat angekündigt, seine Partei in die nächste Bundestagswahl zu führen" [After the breakdown of the traffic light coalition - FDP leader Lindner wants to lead his party again as top candidate in the federal election]. deutschlandfunk.de (in German). 7 November 2024. Archived from the original on 14 November 2024. Retrieved 8 November 2024.
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