2008 United States Senate elections: Difference between revisions

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Elections for the United States Senate will be held on November 4 2008, with one-third (34 of 100) of the seats in the Senate being contested. Since senators are elected for six-year terms, the 33 chosen in regular elections will serve from January 3 2009 until January 3 2015; one senator from Wyoming, to be chosen in a special election, will serve the remainder of a term expiring on January 3 2013 and join Senate Class I. The 33 elected to regular terms will join Senate Class II, which traces its roots back to the senators who served four-year terms from March 4 1789 until March 2 1793. Current Class II Senators, who were elected in 2002, will seek re-election or retire in 2008.

The 2008 presidential election, gubernatorial elections, and House of Representatives elections will occur on the same date, as well as many state and local elections.

The composition of the Senate going into the 2008 election will include 49 Republicans, 49 Democrats, and two independents (Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, who both caucus with Democrats). Of the seats up for election in 2008, 21 are held by Republicans and 12 by Democrats. A special election will also be held for Wyoming's Class I Senate seat, currently held by John Barrasso, who was appointed by Governor Dave Freudenthal after the death of Craig L. Thomas.

There may be additional changes of incumbents to the list below if senators die or resign. If senators in other classes die or resign between 2006 and 2008, there may be additional special elections in 2008. The dates between which the death or resignation of a senator would lead to a special election in 2008 vary from state to state.

Predictions

Democrats possess the field advantage in 2008. They need only to defend 12 seats, while Republicans must defend 22. Of those 22, however, only four are in states won by Senator John Kerry in the 2004 election (Oregon, Maine, Minnesota, and New Hampshire). Six of the 12 Democrats on the other hand are in states won by President George W. Bush (Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia).

The Hotline

In February 2007, Chuck Todd of The Hotline named Mary Landrieu (D-LA), Norm Coleman (R-MN), John Sununu (R-NH), Susan Collins (R-ME), Tim Johnson (D-SD), Gordon Smith (R-OR), Elizabeth Dole (R-NC), Max Baucus (D-MT), and Tom Harkin (D-IA) as the nine most vulnerable Senate incumbents from most to least vulnerable.^[1]

Congressional Quarterly

Congressional Quarterly provided their most recent analysis of the 2008 Senate races in June 2007.^[2] They rank the contests accordingly:

Seven Republican seats (Alaska, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Nebraska, and Wyoming) are considered Safe Republican, meaning the races are not expected to be competitive.
Nine Republican seats (Alabama, Georgia, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia) are considered Republican Favored, meaning the races are not currently competitive but could conceivably become so under the right circumstances.
Four Republican seats currently held by Susan Collins (Maine), Norm Coleman (Minnesota), John Sununu (New Hampshire), and Elizabeth Dole (North Carolina) are considered Leans Republican, meaning the race is competitive but the Republican has a distinct advantage.
One seat, currently held by retiring Republican Wayne Allard (Colorado), is rated No Clear Favorite, meaning no party has a distinct advantage.
Two Democratic seats, currently held by Mary Landrieu (Louisiana) and Tim Johnson (South Dakota), are considered Leans Democratic.
Four Democratic seats (Arkansas, Iowa, Montana and New Jersey) are considered Democrat Favored.
Six Democratic seats (Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan, Rhode Island and West Virginia) are considered Safe Democratic.

Cook Political Report

The Cook Political Report released their most recent Senate race ratings on June 20, 2007. They are:

Safe Democrat: Biden (D-DE), Harkin (D-IA), Durbin (D-IL), Kerry (D-MA), Baucus (D-MT), Lautenberg (D-NJ), Levin (D-MI), Reed (D-RI), and Rockefeller (D-WV)
Likely Democrat: Pryor (D-AR), and Johnson (D-SD)
Lean Democrat: Landrieu (D-LA)

Safe Republican: Sessions (R-AL), Chambliss (R-GA), Craig (R-ID), Roberts (R-KS), McConnell (R-KY), Cochran (R-MS), Hagel (R-NE), Inhofe (R-OK), Graham (R-SC), Alexander (R-TN), Cornyn (R-TX), Warner (R-VA), Enzi (R-WY), and (Thomas)* (R-WY)
Likely Republican: Stevens (R-AK), Sununu (R-NH), Dole (R-NC), Dominici (R-NM), and Smith (R-OR)
Leans Republican: Collins (R-ME), and Coleman (R-MN)
Tossup: (Allard) (R-CO)

(NAME)= Retiring
*= Temporary pending appointment of interim senator.

Races

Interim senators

John Barrasso (R) of Wyoming

John A. Barrasso was appointed by Governor Dave Freudenthal (D) on June 22 2007 to fill the senate seat of Craig L. Thomas, who died on June 4.^[3] As Thomas was a Republican, under Wyoming law which requires that the interim senator be affiliated with the same political party as the departed senator, the state's Republican central committee was required to provide three names to Governor Freudenthal within two weeks, and the governor had five days to select a person from that list to act as interim Senator. The number of applicants for the vacant senate seat was 31.^[4] The state Republican central committee met to choose the three nominees on Tuesday, June 19; they selected Assistant U.S. Attorney General Tom Sansonetti, state senator Barrasso and former state treasurer Cynthia Lummis.^[5] Interim Senator Barrasso will serve until a special election which will be held, concurrent with the regular 2008 election, to fill the remainder of Thomas' term, which ends in January 2013.^[6] Barrasso is expected to run in the Republican primary prior to that election. Of the two finalists who were not chosen, Sansonetti has vowed not to challenge Barrasso while Lummis hasn't ruled out running.^[7]

Retiring senators

One senator, Wayne Allard (R-CO), has announced his retirement, and four have not announced their re-election plans: Thad Cochran (R-MS), Larry Craig (R-ID), Chuck Hagel (R-NE), and John Warner (R-VA). Joe Biden (D-DE) will run for re-election if his bid for the Presidential nomination is unsuccessful. Also, Tim Johnson (D-SD) is still recovering from brain surgery, and may retire. Other senators who have announced their candidacies for re-election may voluntarily or involuntarily cancel their plans.

Wayne Allard (R) of Colorado

In Colorado, incumbent Republican Wayne Allard limited himself to two terms.

On January 15, 2007, he formally announced he would not seek re-election. The race might have been close; a November 2006 poll had Allard's approval rating at 44% with 43% disapproving.^[8]

Republicans: Former U.S. Representative Bob Schaffer has announced his candidacy. Retired Denver Broncos quarterback John Elway and former governor Bill Owens have both ruled out a run.^[9]^[10] On March 21, 2007 former Congressman Scott McInnis dropped out of the race. The strongest, best-known Republican in consideration is widely held to be State Attorney General John Suthers, a former El Paso County District Attorney. But Suthers has committed to supporting Schaffer. Other Republicans include talk show host Dan Caplis and retired United States Air Force General Bentley Rayburn.

Democrats: The Democratic nominee will almost certainly be Rep Mark Udall, who has announced that he will seek the seat and is unlikely to draw significant primary opposition.^[11]

Possible retiring senators

Joe Biden (D) of Delaware

Incumbent Democratic Senator Joe Biden has announced he is running for President.^[12] Biden may run for both the Presidency and the Senate simultaneously, but may choose to retire from the Senate to focus exclusively on the Presidency. Should he retire, the 2008 race would feature the first open Delaware seat since 1970, and State Treasurer Jack Markell (D) or Attorney General Beau Biden, Sen. Biden's son, may run.

Rep Mike Castle, who represents Delaware's At-large congressional district, is a potential Republican candidate.

Thad Cochran (R) of Mississippi

Incumbent Republican Thad Cochran will be 71 in 2008 and has not yet made a firm decision on whether or not to run for reelection. If he retires, possible Democratic candidates who have been mentioned are former Mississippi Attorney General Mike Moore, who is famous for the millions he brought to Mississippi in the tobacco lawsuit, conservative Rep Gene Taylor, and former Governor Ronnie Musgrove, who narrowly lost in his re-election bid to Haley Barbour in 2003. Cochran has not faced serious opposition since he was first elected in 1978.

Possible Republican candidates include Representatives Chip Pickering and Roger Wicker.

Larry Craig (R) of Idaho

In Idaho, Larry Craig has not indicated if he will run for a fourth term. Former Canyon County commissioner Robert Vasquez, a border security supporter who lost a crowded GOP primary for Congress in 2006 won by current Rep. Bill Sali, was an announced candidate on the Republican side, but recently withdrew from the race. Lieutenant Gov. Jim Risch has also been mentioned as a possible Republican candidate if Craig chooses not to seek reelection. On the Democratic side, former Rep. Larry LaRocco announced his candidacy in April 2007. Larry Grant, who had also been mentioned as a Democratic contender, will most likely rematch against Sali instead, leaving LaRocco as the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination.^[13]

Craig, who will be 63 in 2008 and who has never faced a serious electoral challenge from either party in over 25 years in Congress, would likely be solidly favored to win a reelection campaign. One factor which may become important as the date of the election approaches is Craig's long-rumored homosexuality [1] [2] which if proven could be harmful to him in a Republican primary or even a general election in a state where the legislature voted overwhelmingly for a Constitutional amendment to ban homosexual marriage [3].

The race would still favor Republicans even if Craig retires, as no Democrat has won a Senate race in Idaho since Frank Church won re-election in 1974.

Chuck Hagel (R) of Nebraska

In Nebraska, incumbent Republican Chuck Hagel may retire, regardless of whether he runs for President.^[14] Lately there has been more and more talk of Hagel running for President or VP as an independent with Mike Bloomberg. Hagel now openly discusses the possibility.

Republican Attorney General Jon Bruning has declared his intent to run whether Hagel vacates the seat or not. While Hagel has a conservative voting record, he has broken with Bush on Iraq. Hagel has also antagonized the GOP base by supporting Bush's immigration legislation, which includes procedures for undocumented workers to apply to be U.S. citizens. Internal polling released by Bruning's campaign showed him with a 47% to 38% lead over Hagel. Former Rep. and Omaha Mayor Hal Daub is thinking of running as well.

On the Democratic side, three influential senators have encouraged two-term Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey to consider a bid for the seat should Hagel decide to retire: Harry Reid (Majority Leader), Charles Schumer (DSCC Chair), and Ben Nelson (Nebraska's junior Senator).^[15] Former Sen. Robert Kerrey has shown more and more interest in the race, first commissioning a poll and then agreeing to headline the state party's annual fundraising event June 23. Kerrey has said he would contribute to Hagel's re-election.

Tim Johnson (D) of South Dakota

In South Dakota, the seat of Tim Johnson could be a top GOP target in 2008, considering Johnson's narrow 524-vote victory in 2002 over then-Congressman John Thune, as well as his recent health problems. (Johnson underwent surgery in December 2006 for a Cerebral arteriovenous malformation.) Johnson was discharged from the hospital on April 30, 2007. As of April 2007, Johnson has not announced he will seek another term. According to a November 2006 SurveyUSA poll, Johnson has an approval rating of 70%, with just 26% disapproving of his performance.^[16] Republicans are attempting to persuade Governor Mike Rounds to run, and his approval ratings are similar to Johnson's. However, when the Republicans began polling potential challengers to Johnson, Rounds was not among them. State Representative Joel Dykstra has said that he may run if Rounds chooses not to.

John Warner (R) of Virginia

In Virginia, John Warner has announced that he will run for a sixth term in 2008, at which point he will be 82 years old. However, highly popular former Governor Mark Warner, who won 47% of the vote in a challenge to Warner in 1996 when he was but a little-known neophyte, may run.^[17] Senator Warner raised only $500 for re-election in the first quarter of 2007, though, which may indicate he will retire after all.

Should that happen, possible Republican candidates include Rep. Tom Davis and Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling.

Democratic incumbent races

Max Baucus of Montana

Max Baucus is a popular Democrat in Montana, serving in a state that has long been fairly Republican but also is receptive to Democrats in state and local elections. President Bush won Montana by more than 20 points in both 2000 and 2004, but Montana also has a popular Democratic governor and a newly-elected Democratic junior senator. Baucus is unlikely to face a significant challenge, unless Republican Rep Denny Rehberg runs, which would be a rematch of the 1996 contest. Rehberg has not made any formal announcement that he plans to do so, and, should he desire a promotion to the Senate, is more likely to wait until 2012, when freshman Senator Jon Tester will come up for re-election.

Dick Durbin of Illinois

Senate Majority Whip Richard Durbin remains favored in Illinois. He seeks to be reelected in a state that has steadily become more Democratic since 1992. CQpolitics.com rates the contest as "safe Democrat".

Frequent candidate Anthony "Andy" Martin-Trigona, a journalist and activist lawyer, has declared his intent to run. Martin has been sanctioned in federal court for filing hundreds of law suits without merit. As a result of these findings, the Illinois Supreme Court denied him a law license.^[18] On May 14, Steve Sauerberg M.D. of La Grange, a political neophyte declared his intent to seek the Republican nomination. Jim Rowe of Franklin Park (Leyden Township, Cook County) has converted the website he used to run for State Senate against Don Harmon to a website for a U.S. Senate campaign against Durbin. Rowe received less than 30% of the vote against Harmon in 2006. Sauerberg is the candidate supported by the Illinois Republican Party, unless a stronger candidate expresses willingness to challenge Durbin. Cook County Commissioner Tony Peraica is being courted by the Illinois GOP to run.

Tom Harkin of Iowa

Tom Harkin has announced he will seek re-election.^[19]

Harkin received 54% of the vote in 2002 against former Republican Congressman Greg Ganske. In 2006, the Democrats gained two US House seats and won both State Houses as well as retaining the Iowa Governor's Mansion.

As of April 2007, veteran Iowa political reporter David Yepsen was reporting that Harkin, having raised over $2 million, was unlikely to face a big-name Republican challenge.^[20] In a subsequent article, he wrote that it was possible that wealthy propane retailer Bruce Rastetter, formerly in the hog-feeding business, was a potential candidate for Republicans [4].

Steve Rathje, a businessman from Cedar Rapids, has entered the race.

Conservative U.S. Representative Steve King has become increasingly vocal about the proposal to pass legislation that allows immigrants in the United States illegally a path to citizenship and has recently sparred with Harkin over the issue. This has led to some speculation that King has not ruled out running.

John Kerry of Massachusetts

John Kerry will seek another Senate term in Massachusetts.^[21] An April 2007 SurveyUSA poll put Kerry's approval rating at 54%, with 41% disapproving.^[22]

Republican author and conservative activist Jerome Corsi, known for his public criticism of Kerry, had stated that he would run for the seat in 2008, but flip-flopped on this decision. According to a study by the Washington Post, only 37% of Massachusetts residents want Kerry to run again; 63% don't.^[23] Another challenger to Kerry is Jeff Beatty, an ex-Army Delta Force officer who garnered only 30% of the vote in a challenge to Democratic Congressman William Delahunt in 2006.

Kerry is being challenged by defense attorney Edward O'Reilly for the Democratic nomination.

Mary Landrieu of Louisiana

Mary Landrieu was elected in 1996 following a recount, and narrowly re-elected in 2002 following a runoff. Landrieu must now endure the loss of many reliable Democratic voters since Hurricane Katrina dispersed many African-Americans from New Orleans. Louisiana elected David Vitter in 2004, the state's first Republican Senator since Reconstruction. Lousiana's electoral votes also went to George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004. Possible Republican opponents include Rep. Richard Baker, Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, and former state Elections Commissioner Suzanne Haik Terrell, who was Landrieu's opponent in 2002.

Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey

Frank Lautenberg has indicated that he will seek reelection in 2008 at the age of 84, though other Democratic politicians have also shown interest in running in New Jersey, such as Congressmen Rush Holt and Rob Andrews. It is unclear if any of these Democrats will actually challenge Lautenberg, who has the lowest approval rating of any Democrat running for re-election.^[24]

Republicans have a field of potential candidates. Assemblyman Michael J. Doherty is also weighing a run against Lautenberg. Doherty is a lawyer and West Point graduate who has been in the Assembly since 2001.^[25] Also considering a run is wealthy real estate developer Anne Evans Estabrook, who would be supported by moderate and liberal elements within the state GOP. The 2006 nominee, state Senator Tom Kean, Jr., could decide to run again, although he has yet to show interest.

A November 2006 SurveyUSA poll on Senator Lautenberg shows an approval rating of 39% with 45% disapproval,^[26] although similar lopsided ratings did not impair the election of his colleague Senator Robert Menendez.

Carl Levin of Michigan

Carl Levin has announced he will seek re-election in Michigan.^[27] With the Democratic Party takeover of Capitol Hill in the 2006 midterm elections, Levin, as Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, has become one of the most powerful people in Washington. He is expected to easily win re-election. A Republican challenger has yet to step forward,^[28] but within Michigan Republican circles, one possible candidate is former Michigan first lady Michelle Engler.^[29] Three stronger GOP possibilities mentioned are congressman Mike J. Rogers, Michigan secretary of state Terri Lynn Land and Michigan attorney general Mike Cox. None are expected to challenge Levin.[5] CQPolitics rating: Safe Democratic.

Mark Pryor of Arkansas

Mark Pryor could be targeted in his first race as an incumbent. Pryor was the only Democrat to defeat an incumbent Republican Senator in the otherwise GOP-dominated 2002 election. While George W. Bush won in Arkansas in both 2000 and 2004, he won it by a significantly smaller margin than most of the other Southern states, and the home of the Clinton family has Democratic Representatives for three out of its four House seats along with Democratic senior Senator Blanche Lincoln.

Currently, the only Republican showing interest is former U.S. Attorney Chuck Banks, who lost the GOP primary for Lieutentant Governor in 2006 and ran for Representative in 1982. Democrats are concerned that if former Governor Mike Huckabee were forced out of the Republican presidential race early, he would be asked to challenge Pryor.

Current Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter (D) has angered a number of Democrats in the state because he has not denied he may challenge Pryor in a primary. Halter has not been known to have much influence, even though he defeated three seasoned state legislators to win the primary, and a Halter primary challenge would still damage Pryor.

Jack Reed of Rhode Island

In Rhode Island, Jack Reed had an approval rating of 66% in November 2006 according to SurveyUSA.^[30] National Journal has declared that "Reed is probably the safest incumbent of the (2008) cycle."[6] One choice for Republicans, however, could be Governor Don Carcieri.

Jay Rockefeller of West Virginia

Jay Rockefeller, a great-grandson of oil tycoon John D. Rockefeller, will seek reelection in West Virginia. Even though West Virginia is a traditionally Democratic state, in which the party had a 50-32% edge in party affiliation over the Republicans in the 2004 elections, the state party is more conservative than the national party, giving 30% of its votes to President George W. Bush in that election to allow him to win then and in 2000.^[31]

Seeking a fifth term, Sen. Rockefeller is expected to be easily re-elected without significant opposition.

Republican incumbent races

Lamar Alexander of Tennessee

Lamar Alexander has announced he will seek a second term in 2008.^[32]

For the Democrats, a leading candidate in 2008 could be former Representative and 2006 U.S. Senate nominee Harold Ford, who ran a surprisingly strong campaign in Tennessee in 2006. In December 2006, Ford said that he was planning to run for Alexander's seat, but in January 2007 he said that he then had no such plan.^[33]^[34] Businessman Mike McWherter, son of Alexander's gubernatorial successor Ned McWherter, has met with Tennessee Democratic Party chair Gray Sasser and members of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee to discuss a possible senate candidacy.^[35]

Campaign finance reform activist and perennial candidate John Jay Hooker will likely run for the seat, either in the Democratic Primary or as an independent in the general election. He has not, however, been considered a serious candidate since he lost the 1976 senatorial primary to Jim Sasser. His many recent statewide campaigns have been seen merely as excuses for him to file lawsuits against the opposing candidates for supposedly-unethical campaigan fundraising practices and to promote his own campaign finance reform efforts.

Saxby Chambliss of Georgia

In 2002, Republican Saxby Chambliss defeated Democrat Max Cleland, a Decorated disabled Vietnam Veteran. Chambliss will seek reelection in 2008.

Democrat Vernon Jones, the CEO of Dekalb County, has indicated an interest in running and is canvassing the state to determine voters' concerns. Jones is African-American and is a conservative Democrat who voted for George Bush in 2004.^[36] Veteran Atlanta investigative journalist Dale Cardwell declared his candidacy in June 2007. Rep. Jim Marshall is under pressure to not run as Democrats are worried the party would then lose his House seat representing the 8th district.^[37] There is some speculation that former Secretary of State Cathy Cox, a Democrat who unsuccessfully sought her party's nomination for governor in 2006, may jump into the race. Another potential candidate is wealthy Macon-based trial attorney Jim Butler, who has declined to run. Finally, recent speculation has centered around Rep. Sanford Bishop.

Norm Coleman of Minnesota

Norm Coleman won a tight contest in 2002 against former VP Walter Mondale after incumbent Paul Wellstone (D), died in an October plane crash. Minnesota politics, which had been getting less Democratic for a decade, showed signs of returning to its Democratic roots in 2004 after major gains in the state legislature and support for John Kerry by one point more than Al Gore had in 2000. In 2006, popular Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty barely won re-election, Democrat Amy Klobuchar handily beat retiring Republican Rep. Mark Kennedy in a Senate race, and the Democrat-Farmer-Labor (DFL) party took large majorities in the State House, gaining 19 seats, and made further gains in the state senate. Six term Republican Rep. Gil Gutknecht was also defeated that year.

Comedian and former radio talk show host Al Franken confirmed on the final broadcast of his radio show Air America, February 14, 2007, that he will run for the Senate seat in 2008.^[38] He had publicly speculated about running for some time and in 2005, he established the Midwest Values PAC to lay the groundwork for that campaign. Attorneys Mike Ciresi and Jim Cohen have also entered the race. [7][8]

There are also reports of the DSCC trying to recruit Rep. Tim Walz to run for against Coleman, but he has dismissed any interest of running.

The 2008 Republican National Convention is being held in the capital city of St. Paul, where Coleman was once Mayor (elected in 1993 as a moderate-to-conservative DFLer and re-elected in 1997 as a Republican).

According to a January 2007 SurveyUSA poll, Coleman has an approval rating of 55%, with 36% disapproving of his performance.^[39] However, a late March SurveyUSA poll has his approvals sinking to 47 percent with 43 percent dissaproving. Franken is reporting that he has raised 1.3 million dollars in the first quarter of 2007.

On June 12, 2007, Joe Repya announced that he is considering challenging Coleman in the Republican primary. The previous week Repya ran for election of the chair of the Minnesota GOP. He lost that election. Repya, a retired Lt. Col., is a pro-Iraq War activist and formerly advised Coleman on military and veterans issues in his 2002 campaign.^[40]

Susan Collins of Maine

In Maine, Susan Collins has informed the Lewiston Sun Journal that she intends to seek another term.^[41] Collins remains very popular, with a 73% job approval rating in November 2006, and is likely to start as a strong favorite.^[42] Also in Collins' favor is the landslide re-election of Maine's senior senator, Republican Olympia Snowe, who had the largest margin of victory of any Senate candidate (besides the largely unopposed Indiana Republican Dick Lugar) in the 2006 election cycle. Collins was re-elected with 58% of the vote in 2002 over state senator Chellie Pingree. Sen. Joe Lieberman, citing his status as an independent, endorsed Sen. Collins in her 2008 re-election bid.

On May 8, 2007 Rep. Tom Allen (ME-1) announced his candidacy on his website. He had already expressed interest in running and had been building the apparatus necessary to wage a senate campaign.^[43] On the same day a poll was released by Critical Insights, an independent polling firm in Portland, ME, which showed Senator Collins as the clear early favorite, with Collins leading Allen 57 to 30 percent statewide.

John Cornyn of Texas

John Cornyn has a 41% job approval rating as of April 2007. Texas has not elected a Democrat in a statewide election since 1994. Possible Democratic candidates include state representative and military veteran Rick Noriega, former state Comptroller John Sharp, and wealthy San Antonio trial attorney Mikal Watts. Congressman Nick Lampson was thought to be a candidate, but will run for re-election to the U.S. House, not election to the Senate.^[44] In June 2007 Watts formed an exploratory committee. Watts since matched the 3.8 million Cornyn has raised so far with a contribution to himself.

Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina

In North Carolina, there had been rumors that Elizabeth Dole would retire from the Senate and run for Governor, but she said in 2006 that she intends to run for re-election.^[45] If she does, she will probably be an initial favorite unless she faces Democratic Governor Mike Easley, who will not be running for re-election because of term limits. A Dole-Easley race would be highly competitive, but Easley has indicated that he is not interested in serving in any legislature when the DSCC attempted to recruit him for the race. A recent poll showed Easley defeating Dole, 44% to 41%.^[46]

There are other Democrats whose names have been mentioned, such as first lady Mary Easley, Rep. Brad Miller, state Rep. Grier Martin, state Sen. Kay Hagan, retired Gen. Henry Hugh Shelton, and state Attorney General Roy A. Cooper. Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue and state Treasurer Richard H. Moore have been mentioned, but both seem sure to run for Governor in 2008 instead.^[47] A Public Policy Polling poll shows Dole leading Miller 44% to 33%, with 22% undecided. A May 15, 2007 poll has Dole leading Cooper 46% to 36%.

Pete Domenici of New Mexico

Incumbent Republican Pete Domenici has declared that he will seek reelection in New Mexico. Rumors of a possible retirement have persisted due to Domenici's lack of fundraising activity, but his February campaign announcement included a fundraising schedule and confidence in his ability to raise appropriate funds.^[48] Domenici would be normally expected to win re-election easily, having won his current term with the support of two out of three New Mexico voters; however, Domenici is to be investigated by the Senate Ethics Committee for his role in firing U.S. Attorney David Iglesias. Domenici's role in the developing scandal has reduced the probability he will be re-elected.

Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez is thinking of running and is waiting to see how the controversy plays out. Former state Attorney General and 2006 congressional candidate Patricia Madrid is another speculated challenger, as is state Auditor Hector Balderas. Former U.S. Attorney John Kelly is looking at running against Domenici.^[49] Kelly ran against Rep. Heather Wilson in 2000, losing by 51% to 44%.

Two minor candidates have also expressed intent to run. Leland Lehrman, 37, edits an alternative bi-weekly newspaper in northern New Mexico. Jim Hannan, 56, is the finance director of the Community Housing Trust in Santa Fe, a group that develops affordable housing.^[50]

Michael Enzi of Wyoming

Mike Enzi is likely to be re-elected without significant opposition in strongly Republican Wyoming if Dave Freudenthal, the Governor, does not run. If Freudenthal tosses his hat into the ring, this race becomes competitive. Enzi had 73% in 2002, but Gov. Freudenthal won re-election last year with 70% of the vote and won in every county, very rare for a Western Democrat.

With the recent passing of Wyoming's other Republican senator, Craig L. Thomas, necessitating a special election in 2008 to fill the remainder of the late Senator's term, it has become rather likely that Enzi will face little to no serious Democratic opposition, as any Wyoming Democrats interested in the Senate could now face a short-term, appointed incumbent in the race for Thomas' seat, rather than an entrenched incumbent such as Enzi.

Lindsey Graham of South Carolina

Lindsey Graham, as a reasonably popular Republican incumbent in strongly conservative South Carolina, is unlikely to be vulnerable to a Democratic challenge, though he is expected to face opposition in the Republican primary.^{[citation needed]} Graham's support for a compromise immigration bill has drawn an angry response from many South Carolina conservatives, which could help fuel a conservative primary challenge.

Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma

In Oklahoma, Jim Inhofe had been quiet about his plans for 2008. A November 2006 SurveyUSA poll put Inhofe's approval rating at 46%, with 41% disapproving of his performance. However, Inhofe recently announced he will seek a third term.^[51] State Senator Andrew Rice and state Senator Kenneth Corn have expressed interest in challenging Inhofe.

Mitch McConnell of Kentucky

Partly as a result of McConnell backing Anne Northup's run against Gov. Ernie Fletcher in the Republican primary in 2007, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell may face a challenge in the Republican primary. Fletcher allies are backing a campaign to draft Larry Forgy a former State Supreme Court Justice who was almost elected Governor in 1991 and 1995. On May 24, 2007, Fletcher won the Republican Nomination for Governor.^[52] Early polling suggests Fletcher will lose decisively. 36% of Republicans oppose Fletcher's candidacy.^[53] In addition, McConnell's indecisive response to President Bush's proposed immigration bill has brought him ire and criticism from bigots and Kentucky's political right wing. For many of these people legislation that includes any provision for immigrants in the country illegally to obtain citizenship is a form of amnesty.

McConnell may be a target for Democrats, who have a number of potential candidates to challenge him, including Rep. Ben Chandler (who has indicated disinterest in the campaign) and Attorney General Greg Stumbo. According to DSCC chairman Chuck Schumer, polling has shown Chandler trailing McConnell by a single point, 45% to 44%, and that when a push question (linking McConnell to President Bush and the war in Iraq) was added, Chandler held a double-digit (55% to 42%), a surprising total. This polling is likely part of a DSCC attempt to get Chandler to run. Though, most political observers believe Chandler will instead wait for 2010, when he would face either an open seat race or the much weaker incumbent Jim Bunning. Other potential Democrats whose names have been mentioned in speculation include State Treasurer Jonathan Miller, who recently dropped out of the crowded Democratic primary for Governor, former Rep. and 2006 congressional candidate Ken Lucas (although Lucas will be 75 years old in 2008), and Rep. John Yarmuth.

Pat Roberts of Kansas

Pat Roberts has indicated that he will seek reelection. Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, but rumors suggest that popular Kansas governor Kathleen Sebelius may run, which might make this a more competitive race.

Jeff Sessions of Alabama

In Alabama, Jeff Sessions is running for re-election. CQpolitics.com rates the race as "Republican Favored". On January 10th, 2007, Rep. Artur Davis announced that he will not run for the seat.^[54] Despite going heavily for Bush in 2004, Alabama still has a strong Democratic presence; Democrats control majorities of both houses in the state legislature. Commissioner of Agriculture and Industries Ron Sparks appeared to be preparing for a run, but on June 12, 2007, Sparks announced that he will not seek the Senate seat, in order to avoid a primary battle with state Senator Vivian Davis Figures.^[55] Figures has won elections in the Republican-leaning Mobile area.

Gordon Smith of Oregon

Gordon Smith is likely to run for a third term in Oregon, and may be vulnerable. Oregon businessman Ty Pettit and attorney and Democratic consultant Steve Novick are so far the only announced candidate for the Democratic nomination, although Novick has said he will drop out if a stronger candidate announces. Novick himself is not well known, though he is believed to be a strong campaigner. The Democrats' dream candidate, highly popular former Governor John Kitzhaber, though he has declared he is not running. So have , Rep. Peter DeFazio (OR-4) and Rep. Earl Blumenauer (OR-3).^[56] Other possible Democratic contenders include businesswoman Eileen Brady, retired Air Force General Merrill McPeak, and state Senator Ben Westlund. Another who has said he is seriously considering a bid is State Senate Majority Whip Alan Bates.

Smith could also draw opposition from the right. He has been singled out by the Club for Growth for not doing enough to cut taxes; anti-tax activist Bill Sizemore has not ruled out challenging Smith in the Republican primary.

Ted Stevens of Alaska

In Alaska, Ted Stevens will be 85 years old in 2008, but he has indicated that he will seek re-election for a sixth term. The FBI is investigating the remodeling of Stevens home by Veco Corp. which is part of a broader corruption investigation involving Stevens' son, former Alaska Senate President Ben Stevens.^[57] Two former Veco executives have plead guilty to paying the younger Stevens $242,000 in bribes.^[58] Since the connection to Ted Stevens is a developing story the effects on his re-election prospects haven't been settled.

John Sununu of New Hampshire

John Sununu represents swing state New Hampshire, which traditionally leans Republican, but which John Kerry from neighboring Massachusetts narrowly won in the 2004 Presidential election and which saw major Democratic gains in the 2006 elections. Democrats took both of the previously Republican-held House seats, the gubernatorial race by a record margin of 74%, and majorities in the State House and Senate, giving them control of both bodies for the first time since 1874.

A spokesman for popular Democratic Governor John Lynch said Lynch would not run for Sununu's seat in 2008.^[59] Portsmouth' Mayor Steve Marchand (D) has announced his candidacy^[60] and Katrina Swett (D), who ran unsuccessfully for Congress in 2002 and whose husband Richard Swett once served in Congress, has also announced.^[61] Dr. Jay Buckey, a medical school director, an Air Force Reserve flight surgeon, and former NASA astronaut, is also running and his non-political background could be appealing.^[62] However, Sununu's 2002 opponent, former Governor Jeanne Shaheen is considering a run and is generally held to be a far more formidable challenger.(She has however so far declined to run, but may change her mind). An American Research Group poll shows Shaheen beating Sununu by a double-digit margin, 44% to 34%.

Senate contests in 2008

State	Incumbent	Status	Possible opposing candidates	2002 Election Results^[63]
Alabama	Jeff Sessions (R)	Running for Re-election	Vivian Davis Figures (D) Pete Johnson (D) Ron Sparks	Jeff Sessions (R) 59%; Susan Parker (D) 40%; Other 1%
Alaska	Ted Stevens (R)	Running for Re-election	Mark Begich (D)	Ted Stevens (R) 78% ; Frank J. Vondersaar (D) 11%; Jim Sykes (G) 8%; Other 3%
Arkansas	Mark Pryor (D)	Running for Re-election	Chuck Banks (R)	Tim Hutchinson (R) 46%; Mark Pryor (D) 54%
Colorado	Wayne Allard (R)	Retiring	Bob Schaffer (R) Mark Udall (D)	Wayne Allard (R) 51%; Tom Strickland (D) 46%; Other 3%
Delaware	Joe Biden (D)	Running for President	Michael Castle (R)	Joe Biden (D) 58%; Raymond J. Clatworthy (R) 41%; Other 1%
Georgia	Saxby Chambliss (R)	Running for Re-election	Thurbert Baker (D) Roy Barnes (D) Sanford Bishop (D) Jim Butler (D) Cathy Cox (D) Vernon Jones (D) Rand Knight (D) Jim Marshall (D) Dale Cardwell (D)	Max Cleland (D) 46%; Saxby Chambliss (R) 53%; Other 1%
Idaho	Larry Craig (R)		Jim Risch (R) Mike Simpson (R) Larry LaRocco (D)	Larry Craig (R) 65%; Alan Blinken (D) 33%; Other 2%
Illinois	Dick Durbin (D)	Running for Re-election	Bill Brady (R) Norm Hill (R) Andy Martin (R) Mike Psak (R) Jim Rowe (R) Steve Sauerberg (R)	Dick Durbin (D) 60%; Jim Durkin (R) 38%; Other 2%
Iowa	Tom Harkin (D)	Running for Re-election	Steve King (R) Tom Latham (R) Bob McDowell (R) Bruce Rastetter (R) Steve Rathje (R)	Tom Harkin (D) 54%; Greg Ganske (R) 44%; Other 2%
Kansas	Pat Roberts (R)	Running for Re-election	Nancy Boyda (D)	Pat Roberts (R) 83%; Steven A. Rosile (L) 9%; George Cook (Reform) 8%
Kentucky	Mitch McConnell (R)	Running for Re-election	Larry Forgy (R) Charlie Owen (D)	Mitch McConnell (R) 65%; Lois Combs Weinberg (D) 35%
Louisiana	Mary Landrieu (D)	Running for Re-election	Richard Baker (R) Jay Dardenne (R) John N. Kennedy (D/R) Suzanne Haik Terrell (R)	Mary Landrieu (D) 52%; Suzanne Haik Terrell (R) 48%
Maine	Susan Collins (R)	Running for Re-election	Tom Allen (D)	Susan Collins (R) 58%; Chellie Pingree (D) 42%
Massachusetts	John Kerry (D)	Running for Re-election	Ed O'Reilly (D) Peter Blute (R) Scott P. Brown (R)	John Kerry (D) 80%; Michael E. Cloud (L) 18%; Others 2%
Michigan	Carl Levin (D)	Running for Re-election	Michelle Engler (R)	Carl Levin (D) 60%; Andrew Raczkowski (R) 38%; Other 2%
Minnesota	Norm Coleman (R)	Running for Re-election	Joe Repya (R) Peter Agre (DFL) Joe Atkins (DFL) Mike Ciresi (DFL) Taryl Clark (DFL) Jim Cohen (DFL) Al Franken(DFL) Dick Franson (DFL) John Lesch (DFL) Mee Moua (DFL) Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer (DFL) Aaron Peterson (DFL)	Norm Coleman (R) 50%; Walter Mondale (D) 47%; Other 3%
Mississippi	Thad Cochran (R)	Leaning towards re-election	Roger Wicker (R) Chip Pickering (R) Mike Moore (D)	Thad Cochran (R) 85%; Shawn O'Hara (Reform) 15%
Montana	Max Baucus (D)	Running for Re-election	Mike Lange (R) Denny Rehberg (R) Scott Sales (R)	Max Baucus (D) 63%; Mike Taylor (R) 32%; Other 5%
Nebraska	Chuck Hagel (R)		Jon Bruning (R) Hal Daub (R) Tony Raimondo (R) Mike Fahey (D) Robert Kerrey(D) Scott Kleeb (D)	Chuck Hagel (R) 83%; Charlie A. Matulka (D) 15%; Other 2%
New Hampshire	John Sununu (R)	Running for Re-election	Jay Buckey (D) Steve Marchand (D) Jeanne Shaheen (D) Katrina Swett (D) Ken Blevens (Libertarian)	John Sununu (R) 51%; Jeanne Shaheen (D) 46%; Other 3%
New Jersey	Frank Lautenberg (D)	Running for Re-election	Bill Baroni (R) Michael Doherty (R) Anne Evans Estabrooks (R) Tom Kean Jr. (R) Joseph Pennacchio (R) Greg Pason (Socialist) Anthony Fisher (ind)	Frank Lautenberg (D) 54%; Douglas R. Forrester (R) 44%; Other 2%
New Mexico	Pete Domenici (R)	Running for Re-election	Martin Chavez (D) Jim Hannan(D) John Kelly (D) Leland Lehrman(D) Patricia Madrid (D) Tom Udall (D)	Pete Domenici (R) 65%; Gloria Tristani (D) 35%
North Carolina	Elizabeth Dole (R)	Running for Re-election	Roy A. Cooper (D) Bob Etheridge (D) Kay Hagan (D) John Ross Hendrix (D) Grier Martin (D) Brad Miller (D) Hugh Shelton (D) David Young (D)	Elizabeth Dole (R) 54%; Erskine Bowles (D) 45%; Other 1%
Oklahoma	Jim Inhofe (R)	Running for Re-election	Kenneth Corn (D) Andrew Rice (D)	Jim Inhofe (R) 57%; David Walters (D) 36%; James Germalic Independent 6%; Other 1%
Oregon	Gordon Smith (R)	Running for Re-election	Bill Sizemore (R) Alan Bates (D) Kate Brown (D) Randall Edwards (D) Pavel Goberman (D) Jeff Merkley (D) Steve Novick (D) Ty Pettit (D) Vicki Walker (D) Ben Westlund (D) John Frohnmayer (ind)	Gordon Smith (R) 56%; Bill Bradbury (D) 40%; Other 4%
Rhode Island	Jack Reed (D)	Running for Re-election	Steve Laffey (R)	Jack Reed (D) 78%; Robert G. Tingle (R) 22%
South Carolina	Lindsey Graham (R)	Running for Re-election		Lindsey Graham (R) 54%; Alex Sanders (D) 44%; Other 2%
South Dakota	Tim Johnson (D)	Running for Re-election	Joel Dykstra (R) Dusty Johnson (R) Sam Kephart (R) Mike Rounds (R)	Tim Johnson (D) 50%; John R. Thune (R) 49%; Other 1%
Tennessee	Lamar Alexander (R)	Running for Re-election	Harold Ford Jr. (D) Mike McWherter (D) Bill Purcell (D) David Gatchell (I) Emory "Bo" Heyward (I) John Jay Hooker (I)	Lamar Alexander (R) 54%; Bob Clement (D) 44%; Other 2%
Texas	John Cornyn (R)	Running for Re-election	Ron Kirk (D) Rick Noriega (D) Barbara Ann Radnofsky (D) Emil Reichstadt (D) John Sharp (D) Kirk Watson (D) Mikal Watts (D) Mark White (D)	John Cornyn (R) 55%; Ron Kirk (D) 43%; Other 2%
Virginia	John Warner (R)		Tom Davis (R) Don Beyer (D) R. Creigh Deeds (D) Claudia Kennedy (D) Brian Moran (D) Mark Warner (D)	John Warner (R) 83%; Nancy Spannaus (Independent) 10%; Jacob G. Hornberger, Jr. (Independent) 7%
West Virginia	Jay Rockefeller (D)	Running for Re-election	Betty Ireland (R) John Raese (R)	Jay Rockefeller (D) 63%; Jay Wolfe (R) 37%
Wyoming	Mike Enzi (R)	Running for Re-election		Mike Enzi (R) 73%; Joyce Jansa Corcoran (D) 27%
Wyoming (Special)	John A. Barrasso (R)	Running for election	Cynthia Lummis (R)	2006: Craig L. Thomas (R) 70%; Dale Groutage (D) 30%
State	Incumbent	Status	Possible opposing candidates	2002 Election Results

External links

References

^ Todd, Chuck (2006-02-12). "Campaign Race Rankings: 2008 Senate Races". National Journal. National Journal. Retrieved 2007-02-24.
^ CQ Staff (2007-01-26). "Ratings Chart: 2008 Senate Races". Congressional Quarterly Inc. Retrieved 2007-02-05.
^ "Governor picks Barrasso". Casper Star-Tribune. 2007-06-22. Retrieved 2007-06-22.
^ "The list of candidates for Wyoming's Senate vacancy". Casper Star-Tribune. 2007-06-15. Retrieved 2007-06-15. {{cite news}}: Unknown parameter |Author= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)
^ "State GOP nominates Sansonetti, Barrasso, Lummis for Senate seat". Casper Star-Tribune. 2007-06-19. Retrieved 2007-06-19. {{cite news}}: Unknown parameter |Author= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)
^ Martin Kady II (2007-06-05). "Senate Mourns Death of Wyoming Republican Craig Thomas". CQ Politics. Retrieved 2007-06-05. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
^ Jared Miller and Barbara Nordby (2007-06-23). "Barrasso ready to pick up where Thomas left off". Casper Star-Tribune. Retrieved 2007-06-23. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
^ Cillizza, Chris (January 16, 2007). "Sen. Allard Says He Will Retire in 2008". The Washington Post. Retrieved 2007-02-06.
^ "Allard won't run again in 2008". Cañon City Daily Record. Associated Press. 2007-01-16. Retrieved 2007-02-05.
^ "Elway nixes '08 Senate run". Rocky Mountain News. 2007-01-17. Retrieved 2007-02-05.
^ Sealover, Ed (November 8, 2006). "Shift puts key state issues in question". Colorado Springs Gazette. Retrieved 2006-11-11.
^ Associated Press (November 13, 2006). "McCain considers running for US presidency in 2008; Biden plans run; Feingold steps out". International Herald Tribune. Retrieved 2006-11-15. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
^ LaRocco to run for Senate; Craig mum on future Accessed 6 April 2007
^ Kaiser, Robert G. (November 15, 2004). "The Political Veteran". Washington Post. Retrieved 2006-11-15.
^ Kotok, C. David (February 11, 2007). "D.C. chat has Fahey considering Senate bid". Omaha World-Herald. Retrieved 2007-02-11.
^ "Results of SurveyUSA News Poll #11163". SurveyUSA. 2006. Retrieved 2007-02-05. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |month= ignored (help)
^ Cillizza, Chris (February 28, 2007). "Va.'s Two Warners May Be Headed for Rematch". The Washington Post. Retrieved 2007-03-01. {{cite news}}: Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)
^ John Chase and Rick Pearson (2006-02-10). "Perennial candidate back for another race". Chicago Tribune Inc. Retrieved 2007-05-16.
^ Norman, Jane (2007-01-18). "Harkin points toward re-election bid". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved 2007-02-06.
^ Yepsen, David (2007-04-09). "Harkin and Grassley Forever?". The Des Moines Register.
^ Klein, Rick (2007-01-24). "Kerry won't run for president in '08". The Boston Globe. Retrieved 2007-02-05.
^ "Results of SurveyUSA News Poll #11479". SurveyUSA. 2007-04-24. Retrieved 2007-05-01.
^ Finer, Jonathan (January 28, 2005). "Another Crack at Kerry". Washington Post. Retrieved 2006-11-16. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
^ "Results of SurveyUSA News Poll #11152". SurveyUSA. 2006. Retrieved 2007-02-05. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |month= ignored (help)
^ Burton, Cynthia (2007-02-06). "Lautenberg bulks up funds for '08 run". The Philadelphia Inquirer. Retrieved 2007-02-06.
^ "Results of SurveyUSA News Poll #11152". SurveyUSA. 2006. Retrieved 2007-02-05. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |month= ignored (help)
^ "Levin to seek another Senate term in '08". Associated Press, MSNBC.com. December 4, 2006. Retrieved 2006-02-06.
^ "Levin raises nearly $1.5M over 3 months". Lansing State Journal. April 18, 2007. Retrieved 2007-04-27.
^ [[cite news|title=Levin May Face Off Against Engler|date=December 6, 2006|publisher = Political Insider|url=http://politicalinsider.com/2006/12/levin may face off against an.html|accessdate = 2007-04-27 }}
^ "Results of SurveyUSA News Poll #11161". SurveyUSA. 2006-11-22. Retrieved 2007-02-05.
^ "Election 2004 West Virginia Exit Poll". CNN.com. 2004-11-02. Retrieved 2007-02-06.
^ "Alexander Running Again, Sets Fundraiser". The Chattanoogan. 2007-04-03. Retrieved 2007-04-06.
^ Richard Locker, Another Senate seat might tempt Ford, The Commercial Appeal, December 11, 2006
^ "Ford says he has no plans of a Senate bid against Alexander". WMCTV.com. Associated Press. 2007-01-23. Retrieved 2007-02-06.
^ Ken Whitehouse (2007-06-22). "Son of former governor mulling U.S. Senate bid". Nashville Post. Retrieved 2007-06-23.
^ Tagami, Ty (2007-02-13). "DeKalb CEO fund-raiser may test Senate campaign waters". The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Retrieved 2007-02-13.
^ Grim, Ryan (2007-02-12). "Headline: In 'Open' Season, Candidates Are Blossoming". The Politico. Retrieved 2007-02-13.
^ Smith, Dane (February 14, 2007). "Franken jumps into Senate race". Minneapolis Star Tribune. Retrieved 2007-02-15.
^ "Results of SurveyUSA News Poll #11626". SurveyUSA. 2007-01-24. Retrieved 2007-02-05.
^ Blake, Aaron (2007-06-13). "Coleman faces challenge from his former adviser". The Hill. Capitol Hill Publishing Corp. Retrieved 2007-06-13.
^ Farmer, David (2006-10-13). "Collins to seek 3rd term". Sun Journal. Retrieved 2007-02-05.
^ "Results of SurveyUSA News Poll #11141". SurveyUSA. 2006-11-22. Retrieved 2007-02-05.
^ Duran, Nicole (December 12, 2006). "Allen Ponders 2008 Senate Race". Roll Call. Retrieved 2007-02-15.
^ Selby, W. Gardner (2007-05-28). "Elections ahead; Lampson not running for U.S. Senate". Austin American-Statesman. Cox Newspapers. Retrieved 2007-05-29.
^ Christensen, Rob (2006-06-12). "Mary Easley has active public life, but she's no Hillary Clinton". The News & Observer. Retrieved 2007-02-05.
^ Dan Kane (2007-01-25). "Poll puts Easley over Dole". The News & Observer. Retrieved 2007-02-05. {{cite news}}: Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)
^ http://www.newsobserver.com/114/story/563228.html
^ Talhelm, Jennifer (2007-02-13). "Domenici: 'I am running' in 2008". The Santa Fe New Mexican. Retrieved 2007-02-14.
^ Nash, Kate (2007-05-17). "Retired generals blast Wilson in latest TV ads". The Albuquerque Tribune. Retrieved 2007-05-19.
^ Nash, Kate (2007-04-25). "Dems put names in hat for Domenici job". The Albuquerque Tribune. Retrieved 2007-05-19.
^ "Results of SurveyUSA News Poll #11158". SurveyUSA. 2006-11-22. Retrieved 2007-02-05.
^ Gunzburger, Ron (2006-05-22). "KY GOV POLL; McCONNELL & KUCINICH MAY GET PRIMARIED; REID'S PLAN; McCONNELL FOR HAGEL". Politics1.com. Ron Gunzburger. Retrieved 2007-05-22.
^ Nickolas, Mark (2006-05-25). "Survey USA: Beshear 62%, Fletcher 34%". Bluegrass Report. [The Foundation For Kentucky's Future. Retrieved 2007-05-25.
^ Associated Press (January 9, 2007). "Davis Won't Challenge Stevens". WTOK. Retrieved 2007-01-10.
^ "Sparks says he won't seek U.S. Senate seat". Everything Alabama. Alabama Live. 2007-06-12. Retrieved 2007-06-13. {{cite news}}: Text "Birmingham News staff" ignored (help)
^ "Blumenauer won't run for U.S. Senate". OregonLive.com. Retrieved 2007-05-16.
^ Mauer, Richard (2007-05-29). "Feds eye Stevens' home remodeling project". Alaska Daily News. McClatchy Company. Retrieved 2007-05-29.
^ McGann, Laura (2007-05-29). "Extreme Makeover: Veco Edition". TPMmuckraker. TPM Media. {{cite news}}: |access-date= requires |url= (help); Text "http://www.tpmmuckraker.com/archives/003309.php" ignored (help)
^ Pindell, James (2006-01-17). "Shaheen doesn't rule out US Senate re-match". The Boston Globe. Retrieved 2007-02-05.
^ Haberman, Shir (2007-01-11). "Marchand says he'll run for Senate". The Portsmouth Herald. Retrieved 2007-02-06.
^ Moskowitz, Eric (2007-01-19). "Swett plans campaign for U.S. Senate". Concord Monitor. Retrieved 2007-02-06.
^ Jay Buckey for US Senate Campaign Biography
^ "Federal Elections: 2002 U.S. Senate Results". Federal Election Commission. Retrieved 2007-02-05.

@@ Line 265: / Line 265: @@
 {{main|Kentucky United States Senate election, 2008}}
-Partly as a result of McConnell backing [[Anne Northup]]'s run against Gov. [[Ernie Fletcher]] in the Republican primary in 2007,  Minority Leader [[Mitch McConnell]] may face a challenge in the Republican primary. Fletcher allies are backing a campaign to draft [[Larry Forgy]] a former State Supreme Court Justice who was almost elected Governor in 1991 and 1995. On May 24, 2007, Fletcher won the Republican Nomination for Governor.<ref>{{cite news |first=Ron |last=Gunzburger |title= KY GOV POLL; McCONNELL & KUCINICH MAY GET PRIMARIED; REID'S PLAN; McCONNELL FOR HAGEL |url=http://politics1.com/blog-0507a.htm#0522 |work=[[Politics1.com]] |publisher=[[Ron Gunzburger]] |date=2006-05-22 |accessdate=2007-05-22 }}</ref> Early polling suggests Fletcher will lose decisively. 36% of Republicans oppose Fletcher's candidacy.<ref>{{cite news |first=Mark |last=Nickolas |title= Survey USA: Beshear 62%, Fletcher 34% |url=http://www.bluegrassreport.org/bluegrass_politics/2007/05/survey_usa_besh.html |work=[[Bluegrass Report]] |publisher=[The Foundation For Kentucky's Future |date=2006-05-25 |accessdate=2007-05-25 }}</ref>  In addition, McConnell's indecisive response to President Bush's proposed immigration bill has brought him ire and criticism from bigots and Kentucky's political right wing. For many of these people any legislation that includes any provision for immigrants in the country illegally is a form of amnesty.
+Partly as a result of McConnell backing [[Anne Northup]]'s run against Gov. [[Ernie Fletcher]] in the Republican primary in 2007,  Minority Leader [[Mitch McConnell]] may face a challenge in the Republican primary. Fletcher allies are backing a campaign to draft [[Larry Forgy]] a former State Supreme Court Justice who was almost elected Governor in 1991 and 1995. On May 24, 2007, Fletcher won the Republican Nomination for Governor.<ref>{{cite news |first=Ron |last=Gunzburger |title= KY GOV POLL; McCONNELL & KUCINICH MAY GET PRIMARIED; REID'S PLAN; McCONNELL FOR HAGEL |url=http://politics1.com/blog-0507a.htm#0522 |work=[[Politics1.com]] |publisher=[[Ron Gunzburger]] |date=2006-05-22 |accessdate=2007-05-22 }}</ref> Early polling suggests Fletcher will lose decisively. 36% of Republicans oppose Fletcher's candidacy.<ref>{{cite news |first=Mark |last=Nickolas |title= Survey USA: Beshear 62%, Fletcher 34% |url=http://www.bluegrassreport.org/bluegrass_politics/2007/05/survey_usa_besh.html |work=[[Bluegrass Report]] |publisher=[The Foundation For Kentucky's Future |date=2006-05-25 |accessdate=2007-05-25 }}</ref>  In addition, McConnell's indecisive response to President Bush's proposed immigration bill has brought him ire and criticism from bigots and Kentucky's political right wing. For many of these people legislation that includes any provision for immigrants in the country illegally to obtain citizenship is a form of amnesty.
 McConnell may be a target for Democrats, who have a number of potential candidates to challenge him, including Rep. [[Ben Chandler]] (who has indicated disinterest in the campaign) and Attorney General [[Greg Stumbo]]. According to DSCC chairman [[Chuck Schumer]], polling has shown Chandler trailing McConnell by a single point, 45% to 44%, and that when a push question (linking McConnell to President Bush and the war in Iraq) was added, Chandler held a double-digit (55% to 42%), a surprising total. This polling is likely part of a DSCC attempt to get Chandler to run. Though, most political observers believe Chandler will instead wait for 2010, when he would face either an open seat race or the much weaker incumbent [[Jim Bunning]]. Other potential Democrats whose names have been mentioned in speculation include State Treasurer [[Jonathan Miller]], who recently dropped out of the crowded Democratic primary for Governor, former Rep. and 2006 congressional candidate [[Ken Lucas]] (although Lucas will be 75 years old in 2008), and Rep. [[John Yarmuth]].