U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century

The U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century (USCNS/21), also known as the Hart-Rudman Commission or Hart-Rudman Task Force on Homeland Security, was chartered by Secretary of Defense William Cohen in 1998 to provide a comprehensive review of U.S. national security requirements in the 21st century. USCNS/21 was tasked "to analyze the emerging international security environment; to develop a US national security strategy appropriate to that environment; and to assess the various security institutions for their current relevance to the effective and efficient implementation of that strategy, and to recommend adjustments as necessary".

Released on 31 January 2001, USCNS/21 is the most exhaustive review of US national security strategy since the National Security Act of 1947. USCNS/21 was released in three distinct phases. The first phase, New World Coming: American Security in the 21st Century, anticipates the emerging international security environment within the first quarter of the 21st century and examines how the US fits into that environment. The second phase, Seeking a National Strategy: A Concert for Preserving Security and Promoting Freedom, proposes a new US national security strategy based on the anticipated threats and conditions outlined in the first phase report. The third phase, Roadmap for National Security: Imperative for Change, recommended changes to the US government's structure, legislation, and policy to reflect a new national security strategy based on the anticipated 21st century international security environment.

Mandate and members

Charter

According to the US Commission on National Security/21st Century Charter:

"The Department of Defense recognizes that America should advance its position as a strong, secure, and persuasive force for freedom and progress in the world. Consequently, there is a requirement to:
1) conduct a comprehensive review of the early 21st Century global security environment, including likely trends and potential 'wild cards';
2) develop a comprehensive overview of American strategic interests and objectives for the security environment we will likely encounter in the 21st Century;
3) delineate a national security strategy appropriate to that environment and the nation's character;
4) identify a range of alternatives to implement the national security strategy, by defining the security goals for American society, and by describing the internal and external policy instruments required to apply American resources in the 21st Century; and
5) develop a detailed plan to implement the range of alternatives by describing the sequence of measures necessary to attain the national security strategy, to include recommending concomitant changes to the national security apparatus as necessary.
A Commission, the U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century (USCNS/21), will be established to fulfill this requirement, supported by a Study Group. Two individuals who have national recognition and significant depth of experience and public service will oversee the efforts of this Commission and serve as its Co-chairpersons. The study effort shall be conducted by a Study Group, composed of individuals who will be appointed as Department of Defense personnel. Based on the results of this study and the Commission's consideration thereof, the USCNS/21 will advance practical recommendations that the President of the United States, with the support of the Congress, could begin to implement in the Fiscal Year 2002 budget, if desired".

Major Intelligence Reform Attempts 1947-2005
1947, National Security Act of 1947
1947, The First Hoover Commission
1949, The Dulles Report
1953, The Second Hoover Commission
1954, The Doolittle Report
1956, The Bruce-Lovett Report
1961, The Taylor Report
1961, The Kirkpatrick Report
1971, The Schliesinger Report
1974, The Murphey Investigation
1975, The Rockefeller Commission
1976, The Church Committee
1976, The Pike Committee
1976, Clifford/Cline Proposals
1976, EO 11905 (Ford)
1978, Charter Legislation
1978, EO 12036 (Carter)
1981, EO 12333 (Reagan)
1987, Iran-Contra Investigation
1992, Boren-McCurdy
1995, Aspen-Brown Commission
1996, IC21
2001, US Commission on National Security/21st Century
2004, 9-11 Commission Report
2005, WMD Commission

The Commission

Co-Chairs

• Gary Hart
• Warren Bruce Rudman

Commissioners

• Anne Armstrong
• Norm R. Augustine
• John Dancy
• John R. Galvin
• Leslie H. Gelb
• Newt Gingrich
• Lee H. Hamilton
• Lionel H. Olmer
• Donald B. Rice
• James R. Schlesinger
• Harry D. Train II
• Andrew Jackson Young, Jr.

Executive Director

• Charles G. Boyd

Deputy Executive Director

• Arnold Punaro

Chief of Staff

• Hank Scharpenberg

Study Group Coordinator and Study Group Member

• Dr. Pat Pentland

Study Group Members

• Dr. Jeffrey Bergner
• Dr. Coit D. Blacker
• Dr. Christopher J. Bowie
• Dr. Ivo H. Daalder
• Rhett Dawson
• Amb. Charles W. Freeman, Jr.
• Dr. Adam Garfinkle
• Richard Haas
• Keith Hahn
• Dr. Charles B. Johnson
• Robert Killebrew
• Dr. Richard H. Kohn
• Dr. William Lewis
• James R. Locher III
• Dr. Charles Moskos
• Dr. Williamson Murray
• Dr. Barry Ross Posen
• Dr. Barbara Samuels
• Dr. James S. Thomason
• Ruth Wedgwood

Phase I report - New World Coming: American Security in the 21st Century

New World Coming: American Security in the 21st Century was the first report completed by the Commission. Released on 15 September 1999, it attempts to provide a picture of the international security environment within the first quarter of the 21st century and the anticipated role of the US in that environment. Two contradictory trends are forecasted during this period. The Commission anticipates an increasingly technologically, economically, and socially integrated world, i.e. increasing globalization amidst social and political fragmentation.The report provides twelve basic assumptions of that environment and fourteen conclusions based on those assumptions.

Assumptions

"1) An economically strong United States is likely to remain a primary political, military, and cultural force through 2025, and will thus have a significant role in shaping the international environment.
2) The stability and direction of American society and politics will help shape US foreign policy goals and capacities, and hence the way the US may affect the global future.
3) Science and technology will continue to advance and become more widely available and utilized around the world, but their benefits will be less evenly distributed.
4) World energy supplies will remain largely based on fossil fuels.
5) While much of the world will experience economic growth, disparities in income will increase and widespread poverty will persist.
6) The international aspects of business and commerce (trade, transportation, telecommunications, investment and finance, manufacturing, and professional services) will continue to expand.
7) Non-governmental organizations (refugee aid organizations, religious and ethnic advocacy groups, environmental and other single-issue lobbies, international professional associations, and others) will continue to grow in importance, numbers, and in their international role.
8) Though it will raise important issues of sovereignty, the US will find in its national interest to work with and strengthen a variety of international organizations.
9) The US will remain the principal military power in the world.
10) Weapons of mass destruction (nuclear, chemical, and biological) and weapons of mass disruption (information warfare) will continue to proliferate to a wider range of state and non-state actors. Maintenance of a robust nuclear deterrent therefore remains essential as well as investment in new forms of defense against these threats.
11) We should expect conflicts in which adversaries, because of cultural affinities different from our own, will resort to forms and levels of violence shocking to our sensibilities.

12) As the US confronts a variety of complex threats, it will often be dependent on allies; but it will find reliable alliances more difficult to establish and sustain".

Conclusions

"1) America will become increasingly vulnerable to hostile attack on our homeland, and our military superiority will not help us.
2) Rapid advances in information and biotechnologies will create new vulnerabilities for US security.
3) New technologies will divide the world as well as draw it together.
4) The national security of all advanced states will be increasingly affected by the vulnerabilities of the evolving global economic infrastructure.
5) Energy will continue to have major strategic significance.
6) All borders will be more porous; some will bend and some will break.
7) The sovereignty of states will come under pressure, but will endure.
8) Fragmentation or failure of states will occur, with destabilizing effects on neighboring states.
9) Foreign crises will be replete with atrocities and the deliberate terrorizing of civilian populations.
10) Space will become a critical and competitive military environment.
11) The essence of war will not change.
12) US intelligence will face more challenging adversaries, and even excellent intelligence will not prevent all surprises.
13) The US will be called upon frequently to intervene militarily in a time of uncertain alliances and with the prospect of fewer forward deployed forces.

14) The emerging security environment in the next quarter century will require different military and other national capabilities".

See also

• United States Intelligence Community
• Homeland Security

External links

• US Commission on National Security/21st Century
• National Security Watch - USCNS/21: A Hart-Rudman Commission Primer