2008 Glenrothes by-election: Difference between revisions
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The SNP may stand the leader of Fife Council, Peter Grant,<ref name="watt" /> and the [[Conservative Party (UK)|Conservative Party]] are likely to stand Maurice Golden. The Liberal Democrats could stand councillor Elizabeth Riches or Harry Wills.<ref name="bargeton" /> |
The SNP may stand the leader of Fife Council, Peter Grant,<ref name="watt" /> and the [[Conservative Party (UK)|Conservative Party]] are likely to stand Maurice Golden. The Liberal Democrats could stand councillor Elizabeth Riches or Harry Wills.<ref name="bargeton" /> |
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[[Hamish Howitt]] is likely to stand for Freedom-4-Choice follwing his defeats in the Glasgow East and Haltemprice and Howden by-elections as he aims to bring smoking back to public places. |
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Revision as of 20:34, 17 August 2008
| This article is part of a series within the Politics of the United Kingdom on the |
| Politics of Scotland |
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The 2008 Glenrothes by-election will be a by-election for the United Kingdom Westminster Parliamentary constituency of Glenrothes in Fife, Scotland. The seat fell vacant after the death of previous member, John MacDougall (Labour), who died of mesothelioma aged 60.[1]
Background
Fife is traditionally a stronghold for the Labour Party. McDougall had held Glenrothes and its forerunner, Central Fife, since 2001, when he succeeded Henry McLeish. Willie Hamilton had previously represented the area, which has elected Labour MPs since Hamilton won West Fife from the Communist Party of Great Britain in 1950.
The poll follows a run of poor by-election results for the Labour Party, which have included a loss to the Scottish National Party (SNP) in Glasgow East, formerly the party's twenty-fifth safest seat in Britain. Glenrothes has a considerably smaller Labour majority than Glasgow East had.[2]
According to the Financial Times, Labour have privately admitted that they expect to lose Glenrothes to the SNP.[3] The Guardian describes the constituency's main town, Glenrothes, as a "core area" for the SNP.[4] The SNP were in second place in the seat in the 2005 General Election[5] and won the nearest equivalent seat in the 2007 Scottish Parliament election.[4]
The SNP also run Fife Council, which covers the constituency, in coalition with the Scottish Liberal Democrats. The Scottish Liberal Democrats won the last by-election to be held in Fife from Labour on a swing of 16%.[4][5]
The Labour Party have claimed that the SNP have been campaigning in Glenrothes ahead of MacDougall's death, but the SNP claim that their local Member of the Scottish Parliament, Tricia Marwick, has simply been visiting the area in her elected role.[3]
The seat adjoins that of the Prime Minister, Gordon Brown,[3] and it is possible that as a result he will be under pressure to actively campaign in the by-election, something Prime Ministers generally avoid.[2]
Boundaries
The current boundaries centre on Glenrothes itself, moving south and west to include Cardenden, and the extreme western section of Kirkcaldy. The northern and western areas include Leslie, and Markinch. In the east, the seat contains Kennoway and Methil.
Polling date
There has been speculation about the timing of the by-election. By tradition, the polling date will be decided by Labour, as MacDougall's party.
A by-election could be held as early as mid-September, but this would coincide with the Trades Union Congress annual conference, and the following weeks will be filled with various party conferences. A Labour loss during this period could provide a particular boost for their opponents, or for dissident elements within the party.[6] The SNP may favour a quick by-election, noting that Labour called the Glasgow East by-election rapidly, when commentators believed it was to Labour's advantage.[2]
Gordon Brown is said to be contemplating a range of measures including a possible Cabinet reshuffle and a mini-Budget in an attempt to boost Labour's popularity,[2] and as a result may call the by-election in October, after carrying these out. However, were Labour to lose the seat after such a relaunch, Gordon Brown's leadership might be jeopardised.[6] In addition, the Scottish weather is typically worse in the autumn, which might reduce turnout, something which typically disproportionately affects the Labour vote.[7]
The Independent speculates that the by-election might be held as late as November,[5] but The Scotsman notes that this might give the SNP more time to build up their campaign.[2]
Jack McConnell is expected to resign his Scottish Parliament seat of Motherwell and Wishaw, and a resulting by-election may be held on the same day as the Glenrothes by-election.[2] This would split the SNP's resources and reduce the potential days of bad news for Labour.[8]
Candidates
The Guardian speculates that two local Labour councillors may seek selection for the by-election, Alex Rowley and Christine May,[9] while The Scotsman also suggests that Claire Baker, a local MSP, may be in the running.[2] Local newspaper The Courier also names former MP Henry McLeish and councillors Mark Hood and Kay Morrison.[10]
The SNP may stand the leader of Fife Council, Peter Grant,[9] and the Conservative Party are likely to stand Maurice Golden. The Liberal Democrats could stand councillor Elizabeth Riches or Harry Wills.[10]
Hamish Howitt is likely to stand for Freedom-4-Choice follwing his defeats in the Glasgow East and Haltemprice and Howden by-elections as he aims to bring smoking back to public places.
Last election
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | John MacDougall | 19,395 | 51.9 | N/A | |
| SNP | John Beare | 8,731 | 23.4 | N/A | |
| Liberal Democrats | Elizabeth Riches | 4,728 | 12.7 | N/A | |
| Conservative | Belinda Don | 2,651 | 7.1 | N/A | |
| Scottish Pensioners Party | George Rodger | 716 | 1.9 | N/A | |
| Scottish Socialist | Morag Balfour | 705 | 1.9 | N/A | |
| UKIP | Paul Smith | 440 | 1.2 | N/A | |
| Majority | 10,664 | 28.5 | N/A | ||
| Turnout | 37,366 | 56.1 | N/A | ||
References
- ^ "MP MacDougall dies after illness". 2008-08-13. Retrieved 2008-08-13.
{{cite web}}: Unknown parameter|job=ignored (help) - ^ a b c d e f g Gerri Peev, "New Scots vote gives Brown three months to save political skin", The Scotsman, 14 August 2008
- ^ a b c George Parker and Jim Pickard, "Brown faces new by-election battle", Financial Times, 13 August 2008
- ^ a b c Severin Carrell, "From working class loyalty to new town aspiration", The Guardian, 14 August 2008
- ^ a b c Nigel Morris, "[http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brown-loses-a-friend-ndash-and-faces-another-daunting-scottish-byelection-894518.html Brown loses a friend – and faces another daunting Scottish by-election]", The Independent, 14 August 2008
- ^ a b Iain Watson, "Don't expect an early by-election", BBC News, 13 August 2008
- ^ "Glenrothes by-election: 'The longer-term prospects look grim for Labour'", Edinburgh Evening News, 14 August 2008
- ^ Hamish MacDonell, "Analysis: Could it be a repeat performance for SNP?", The Scotsman, 14 October 2008
- ^ a b Nicholas Watt and Severin Carrell, "MP's death leaves Brown facing new SNP challenge in neighbouring Fife constituency", The Guardian, 14 August 2008
- ^ a b Steve Bargeton, "MP's death leaves battle for Brown", The Courier