2008 New Zealand general election

2008 general election

Before 15 November 2008
New Zealand House of Representatives
File:Pt winstonpeters ent-lead 200x283.jpg Leader Helen Clark John Key Winston Peters Party Labour National NZ First Leader since 1993 2006 Leader's seat Mount Albert Helensville (List) Last election Not applicable Not applicable   Leader Russel Norman / Jeanette Fitzsimons Tariana Turia / Pita Sharples Peter Dunne Party Green Māori Party United Future New Zealand Leader's seat (List) / (List) Te Tai Hauauru / Tamaki Makaurau Ohariu-Belmont

In October or November 2008, the voters of New Zealand will determine in the New Zealand general election of 2008 the composition of the 49th New Zealand Parliament, and thus the formation of the next government of New Zealand. Since 1999, the social democratic Labour Party led by Helen Clark has dominated various minority governments (first with the Alliance; since 2002 with the Progressive Party); and since [New Zealand general election, 2005|2005]] also supported by other parties. If Labour can form a government after this election, they will start a fourth consecutive term in office. As at every election since 1938), Labour will compete for votes against the centre-right National Party, headed on this occasion by John Key. More significantly, Labour and National will have to defend their share of the seats in parliament from the threats of other parties which already have occupied over a sixth of the available places.

New Zealand uses the Mixed Member Proportional system to elect a 12-member parliament; seventy of the new members will represent geographic communities of roughly 57,000, and the remaining fifty MPs will come off party lists to realise proportionality. New Zealanders regularly cast between a fifth and a third of their votes for parties other than Labour or National (the proportion achieved a high of 37.8 percent in 2002). This, combined with the fact that a party has not won an absolute majority of votes cast since 1951 implies a high probability that any major party will have to seek accommodations with "third" parties in order to form a government. The current minority government has fifty seats in the House of Representatives, eleven short of an absolute majority; an agreement with New Zealand First (seven seats) and another agreement with United Future (two seats), and a third with the Green Party (six seats) affords the government the confidence and supply that it needs to remain in office.

Date

New Zealand elections traditionally occur after September in the third year following the last election; snap elections occur rarely; the only three elections out of sync in the last sixty years took place in 1951, 1984 and 2002, and the last two came only a few months early. Convention in New Zealand expects Parliaments to run for a full three years unless the government loses the confidence of the House, although this has not happened in the modern political era.

The Constitution Act 1986 defines the term of Parliament as "three years from the day fixed for the return of the writs issued for the last preceding general election of members of the House of Representatives, and no longer." Since the writs for the 2005 election were returned on 7 October 2005, the current Parliament will expire on 7 October 2008, making the final possible date for the general election 15 November 2008. With Clark "widely tipped to be eyeing" 8 November, many in National expect polling on 18 October.

Political parties

As at August 2008, twenty registered political parties can contest the party vote. In 2005, eight parties won seats in Parliament. Of the parties contesting the vote in 2005, the 99 MP Party and the One New Zealand Party, the Christian Heritage Party, the Family Rights Protection Party and Destiny New Zealand, have all been deregistered and are thus will not contest the party vote in 2008. Six new political parties will appear on the ballot, however:

1. the Family Party
2. the Kiwi Party (a re-established wing of United Future)
3. the New World Order party
4. the Bill and Ben Party
5. the Residents Action Movement
6. the Pacific Party

In order to gain a seat in parliament, a party needs either five percent of the party vote, or to win one electorate seat.

Retiring MPs

As of July 2008 fourteen Members of Parliament have announced that they will not seek re-election to the House of Representatives in 2008, namely:

• from Labour, 9 members:
  1. Tim Barnett (Christchurch Central)
  2. David Benson-Pope (Dunedin South)
  3. Mark Gosche (Maungakiekie)
  4. Marian Hobbs (Wellington Central)
  5. Steve Maharey (Palmerston North)
  6. Jill Pettis (list MP)
  7. Dover Samuels (list MP)
  8. Paul Swain (Rimutaka)
  9. Margaret Wilson (list MP)

• from National, 4 members:
  1. Mark Blumsky (list MP)
  2. Bob Clarkson (Tauranga)
  3. Katherine Rich (list MP)
  4. Clem Simich (list MP)

Several list MPs elected in 2005 have already resigned; For a full list, see 48th New Zealand Parliament#Changes during term.

Issues

As of September 2008, no obvious overarching issues had emerged as likely to shape the election results, but pundits keep trying to focus attention on some (generally perennial) matters.

Taxation and the economy

On August 5, the Treasury of New Zealand announced that the New Zealand economy had entered a recession. Economic downturn has led to high-profile job losses, such as the closure of factories in Foxton, in west Dunedin and in southern Hawke's Bay. At the same time, inflation hit an eighteen-year high, with an upwards tug on the prices of basics such as food and petrol, the latter crossing the two dollar per litre barrier in late May. To alleviate some of the hardships caused by the global economic downturn, the Government announced a three-stage series of tax cuts in the 2008 Budget, with the first tranche taking effect in October 2008, and the second and third in April 2010 and 2011. At its conference, National pledged to speed up the implementation of the tax cuts, and to borrow several billion dollars to fund infrastructure projects such as a $1.5 billion broadband plan and a new prison in its first term. Prime Minister Helen Clark responded to the National plan, characterising National's plans as "borrowing money for tax cuts", and calling this "nuts".

The Child Discipline Act

Main article: Child Discipline Act

The Citizens Initiated Referenda Act 1993 allows any person to start a petition asking that a national referendum be held. Once the Clerk of the House of Representatives has approved the referendum question, 10% of registered voters must sign a petition before the authorities can authorise holding such a referendum. A movement exists for a referendum on the reputedly controversial Child Discipline Act of 2007; such referendum could theoretically take place on the same date as the election. This now appears unlikely, as the Prime Minister has stated any referendum will occur using postal voting in 2009.

Political donations

See also Electoral Finance Act and 2005 New Zealand election funding controversy

The subject of political donations to major parties has been resurrected in 2005, with New Zealand First leader Winston Peters coming under fire after allegations surrounding use of the secret Spencer Trust and non-declaration of at least twenty-five thousand dollars in donations to his party and a further one hundred thousand to his legal costs, in apparent violation of electoral law that Peters himself voted for. The Speaker of the House, Margaret Wilson, referred the Peters case to the powerful House Privileges Committee on August 5 2008 at the behest of ACT Party leader Rodney Hide.

Labour's legacy

The Labour Party has authored several expensive pieces of social legislation such as a long-term savings scheme called KiwiSaver and a family tax-credit scheme called Working for Families, the latter of which John Key referred to in 2004 as "Communism by stealth". At the end of July 2008, Key announced a change in policy from his party, saying that no changes to Working For Families would now take place.

Key went on to guarantee state ownership of KiwiRail (which the Government had re-purchased in mid-2008 after a period of 15 years in private hands) as well as Kiwibank, despite an off-the-cuff (and retracted) statement from Key's deputy Bill English that a National government would sell off Kiwibank "eventually".

National's history

The image of a National Party reviving privatisation initiatives and moving the country's foreign policy closer to that of the United States of America haunts some voters.

Electorates

Boundary changes

The Representation Commission altered many of the boundaries of New Zealand's parliamentary electorates following the 2006 Census; the large growth in population between censuses lead to significant boundary changes, particularly in Auckland, the area around Christchurch and the central North Island. In May 2007, the Representation Commission announced the boundary changes to take effect for the next general election, with the boundaries finalised in September 2007.

The Commission announced the formation of a new electorate in Greater Auckland, bringing the number of geographical constituencies to seventy. The new seat, originally dubbed "Howick" (after the Auckland suburb), would have included parts of the existing Pakuranga, Manukau East and Clevedon electorates. After Pakuranga electors made strong objections to the proposed changes (which would have seen the inclusion of the population centres Panmure, Point England and Glen Innes into the electorate) the Commission largely reverted proposed changes to the boundaries of the Pakuranga electorate. The Commission opted to alleviate population pressures by moving the the Auckland City suburb of Otahuhu into Manukau East. The revised new seat received the name "Botany" to reflect its focus on the growing population-centres of Botany Downs-Dannemora. On paper, Botany counts as a safe National seat.

Even though the number of South Island electorates remains fixed, the decline in the population of electorates south of Christchurch has resulted in the boundaries of electorates from Invercargill north to Rakaia shifting northwards. The seats of Aoraki, Otago, Rakaia and Banks Peninsula all gravitated towards Christchurch. In the process:

• Aoraki received the new name of Rangitata
• Otago received the new name of Waitaki
• Rakaia received the new name of Selwyn
• Banks Peninsula received the new name of Port Hills

Other seats in the lower South Island increased dramatically in size.

The situation after 2005

In 2005 four MPs won seats with majorities of under a thousand: Labour's Darren Hughes beat out National candidate Nathan Guy in Ōtaki by 382 votes (0.02%), and in Hamilton West, Martin Gallagher of the Labour Party won an 825 vote majority over National's Tim Macindoe. Both of these seats will see a rematch in 2008.

The swing to National in the central North Island saw two Bay of Plenty seats produce close results: in Rotorua, the sitting Labour MP Steve Chadwick prevailed by just 662 votes over National's Gil Stehbens, and in Tauranga, property developer Bob Clarkson defeated New Zealand First's leader and seven-term MP for Tauranga Winston Peters by 730 votes. In 2008, Chadwick will face diplomat Todd McClay, while National has selected Simon Bridges to defend their 2005 gain against another challenge from Peters.

Besides the three Labour-held narrow-margin seats mentioned above (Otaki, Hamilton West and Rotorua), National has prospects of gaining Taupō, where boundary changes have added the National-leaning town of Cambridge and with it nearly 20,000 different voters — putting sitting MP Mark Burton's 2005 majority of just 1,285 at risk. Similarly, the seat of West Coast-Tasman gave Labour's Damien O'Connor a majority of 2,154; if National experiences a larger swing in the seat in 2008, O'Connor could end up losing to National candidate and current list MP Chris Auchinvole.

Part of National's core vote comes from provincial centres. In 1990, when Labour lost power, it lost every seat between the southern fringe of the Auckland urban area and Porirua except Palmerston North; in 2005, a resurgent National won eight provincial seats off Labour:

1. East Coast
2. Tukituki
3. Napier
4. Whanganui
5. Taupō
6. Hamilton East
7. Otago
8. Aoraki

National also won Tauranga off New Zealand First leader Winston Peters and the lion's share of the ACT and United parties' core votes (and in the process gained Northcote off Labour).

The newly-drawn seat of Botany on Auckland's eastern fringe could provide an electoral problem for Labour — on July 4, 2008, a crowd of mostly Asian marchers numbered in the thousands protested against Labour's record on crime and sentencing and a perceived upswing in anti-Asian crime. Because of the large Asian population in the new seat, such trends give National candidate Pansy Wong a possible advantage. Boundary changes have also shaken up the electoral landscape of the South Island. Three new seats - Selwyn, Waitaki and Rangitata, drawn respectively out of Aoraki, Otago and Rakaia, three National-held seats in 2005, could do damage to Labour's chances outside of Christchurch and Dunedin.

On Labour's other flank, the three Māori seats that it held last time against a strong Māori Party challenged could fall like they did in 1996 when New Zealand First broke Labour's sixty-year stranglehold. Nanaia Mahuta will again face Angeline Greensil for the new Hauraki-Waikato seat, Māori affairs minister Parekura Horomia faces veteran broadcaster Derek Fox in Ikaroa-Rāwhiti and Te Tai Tonga MP Mahara Okeroa will stand for re-election in what could be a trying year for Labour.

The seats of Tauranga and Epsom may provide particular resonances: unless Winston Peters re-takes the marginal Tauranga, the New Zealand First Party's chances of a return to the House probably depend on winning 5% of the party vote — a potentially daunting task in the light of current opinion polling. Similarly, the electoral fortunes of the ACT Party may depend very largely on Rodney Hide retaining Epsom. (Amongst other parties very aware of the 5% barrier, United Future appears more secure in the light of Peter Dunne's grip on Ōhariu, and the Progressive Party has a very strong hold via Jim Anderton's "safe seat" of Wigram. The Greens appear less in danger of slipping below the 5% threshold, and lack an obvious winnable electorate seat.)

Polling

See: Opinion polling for the New Zealand general election, 2008

Candidates

See: Candidates in the New Zealand general election 2008 by electorate

See also

• Electoral system of New Zealand