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In regard to public debt, Bulgaria has also been within the prescribed cap of 60% of GDP. Government debt has also been declining consistently, from 50% of GDP to 18% in 2007. The expectation are to reach 11% of GDP in 2009.<ref>{{cite web | url=http://www.sofiaecho.com/article/first-check-against-euro-zone-criteria/id_29318/catid_23 | title=The Sofia Echo | accessdate=2008-05-17}}</ref>
In regard to public debt, Bulgaria has also been within the prescribed cap of 60% of GDP. Government debt has also been declining consistently, from 50% of GDP to 18% in 2007. The expectation are to reach 11% of GDP in 2009.<ref>{{cite web | url=http://www.sofiaecho.com/article/first-check-against-euro-zone-criteria/id_29318/catid_23 | title=The Sofia Echo | accessdate=2008-05-17}}</ref>


However, some recent analysis says that Bulgaria will not be able to join the Eurozone earlier than 2015, due to their inflation problems and the impact of the [[global financial crisis of 2008]].<ref>{{cite web | title=Bulgaria’s Eurozone accession drifts away | url=http://www.focus-fen.net/index.php?id=n160657 | accessdate=2008-11-25}}</ref>
Some recent analysis says that Bulgaria will not be able to join the Eurozone earlier than 2015, due to their inflation problems and the impact of the [[global financial crisis of 2008]].<ref>{{cite web | title=Bulgaria’s Eurozone accession drifts away | url=http://www.focus-fen.net/index.php?id=n160657 | accessdate=2008-11-25}}</ref>. However Bulgarian government considers unilateral introduction of the euro, which is not well-met by the [[European Commission]]<ref>http://evropa.dnevnik.bg/show/?storyid=595094</ref>


===Czech Republic===
===Czech Republic===

Revision as of 09:07, 6 December 2008

Eurozone participation
European Union member states
(special territories not shown)
  20 in the eurozone
  1 in ERM II, without an opt-out (Bulgaria)
  1 in ERM II, with an opt-out (Denmark)
  5 not in ERM II, but obliged to join the eurozone on meeting the convergence criteria (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Sweden)
Non–EU member states
  4 using the euro with a monetary agreement (Andorra, Monaco, San Marino, and Vatican City)
  2 using the euro unilaterally (Kosovo and Montenegro)

The current policy of the European Central Bank, enforced by EU treaties, is to enlarge the Eurozone. The first enlargement was that of Greece, the currency of which was not irrevocably fixed against the euro until 2001, however, Greece exchanged its physical currency on 1 January 2002, with all the the founding members. The next expansion was Slovenia on 1 January 2007; Cyprus and Malta joined on 1 January 2008. Slovakia will be the next country to join the common currency from 1 January 2009.[1]

Accession criteria

Main article: Convergence criteria

In order to officially join the eurozone (thus having the ability to mint coins separately), a country must first be a member of the European Union, and then meet certain economic criteria, including accession to the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM II), which fixes the acceding country's national currency's exchange rate to the euro, within a specified band (normally ±15%).

European microstates that have monetary agreements with acceding countries can continue these agreements to mint separate coins on the accession of the larger state, but do not get a say in the economic affairs of the eurozone. This has been used to allow Monaco, San Marino and the Vatican City to mint their own coins, and Andorra is negotiating a similar agreement.

Historical enlargements

For the process of the introduction of the euro to the original member states, see Introduction of the euro.

Greece

Greece was the first country to join the eurozone after the launch of the currency in 1999. The exchange rate between the Greek drachma and the euro was fixed on 19 June 2000, and Greece formally joined the eurozone on 1 January 2001. Greek drachma coins and notes were replaced with euro coins and banknotes on 1 January 2002, together with all the original euro countries.

Slovenia

Slovenia was the first country to join the eurozone after the launch of the coins and banknotes. The euro replaced the Slovenian tolar on 1 January 2007. The exchange rate between the euro and tolar had been set on 11 July 2006, but unlike the previous launches, cash and non-cash transactions were introduced simultaneously.

Cyprus

Cyprus replaced the Cypriot pound with the euro on 1 January 2008.[2] A formal letter of application was submitted on 13 February 2007.[3] On 16 May 2007 the European Commission backed by the European Central Bank gave its green light for the introduction in January 2008.[4] The final decision was taken by the EU finance ministers (Ecofin) on 10 July 2007 and the conversion rate was fixed at 0.585274 CYP.[5] The new currency is only used in the government-controlled areas of the Republic, the Sovereign Base Areas of Akrotiri and Dhekelia (under UK jurisdiction, outside the EU) and in the United Nations Buffer Zone in Cyprus.[6] The de facto Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus still continues to use the new Turkish lira as their primary currency and the Euro as their secondary.[citation needed]

Malta

Malta replaced the Maltese lira with the euro on 1 January 2008.[7] The aims were officially confirmed on 26 February 2007.[8] On 16 May 2007, the European Commission backed by the European Central Bank gave its green light for the introduction in January 2008.[4] The EU finance ministers gave the green light on 10 July 2007 and the conversion rate was fixed at 0.429300 MTL.[5]

ERM II members

EU members which have not adopted the euro
Non-eurozone member state Currency
(Code) 		Central rate per €1[9] EU join date ERM II join date[9] Government policy on euro adoption Convergence criteria compliance[10]
(as of June 2024) 		Notes
Bulgaria Bulgaria Lev
(BGN) 		1.95583[12] 2007-01-01 2020-07-10 Euro adoption on 1 July 2025[13] Compliant with 4 out of 5 criteria (all except inflation)[14] The Bulgarian government expects to be in compliance with all criteria by the end of 2024[14]
Czech Republic Czech Rep. Koruna
(CZK) 		Free floating 2004-05-01 None Assessment of joining ERM-II to be completed by October 2024[15] Compliant with 2 out of 5 criteria
Denmark Denmark Krone
(DKK) 		7.46038 1973-01-01 1999-01-01 Not on government's agenda[16][17] Not assessed due to opt-out from eurozone membership Rejected euro adoption by referendum in 2000
Hungary Hungary Forint
(HUF) 		Free floating 2004-05-01 None Not on government's agenda[18] Not compliant with any of the 5 criteria
Poland Poland Złoty
(PLN) 		Free floating 2004-05-01 None Not on government's agenda[19] Not compliant with any of the 5 criteria
Romania Romania Leu
(RON) 		Free floating 2007-01-01 None ERM-II by 2026 and euro by 1 January 2029[20][21][22] Not compliant with any of the 5 criteria
Sweden Sweden Krona
(SEK) 		Free floating 1995-01-01 None Not on government's agenda[23] Compliant with 2 out of 5 criteria Rejected euro adoption by referendum in 2003. Still obliged to adopt the euro once compliant with all criteria.[24]


Apart from Denmark and the United Kingdom, which have opt-outs under the Maastricht Treaty, all other EU members are expected to join the eurozone eventually. The following members have acceded to ERM II, in which they must spend two years, before they can adopt the euro.

Slovakia

Slovakia will adopt the euro on 1 January 2009.

The koruna has been part of ERM II since 28 November 2005, requiring that it trade within 15% of an agreed central rate; this rate was changed on 17 March 2007 and again on 28 May 2008. The rate from May 2008 was finally confirmed on 8 July 2008.[25]

To assist the process of conversion to the euro, on 1 April 2008, the Slovak Central Bank (NBS) announced their plan for withdrawal, disposal and destruction of the Slovak koruna notes and coins, making Slovakia introduction to the eurozone in 2009 even more imminent.[26] A few days later, on 5 April 2008, Slovakia officially applied to enter the eurozone.[27] On 7 May 2008, the European Commission approved the application and asked member states to endorse the bid during the EU finance minister's meeting in July 2008.[28][29][30]

Slovakia's twelve-month inflation was 2.2% compared with 3.2% that is required. Annual inflation however was 3.6% for March 2008. Fiscal deficit was 2.2% versus the reference value of 3.0%. And finally, the government debt ratio was 29.4% of GDP in 2007, well below the maximum ratio of 60.0%.[31]

Estonia

The kroon is part of ERM II, though in practice it is pegged to the euro at a rate of 15.6466 krooni = 1 euro (it was formerly pegged to the German Mark at 8 krooni = 1 German Mark).

Estonia has currently no official target date for the changeover, although the last target date was for 1 January 2011. The kroon is pegged to the euro at a fixed rate, almost all shops show prices in euro. Stamps also carry their euro face value.[32] Estonia originally aimed to adopt the euro on 1 January 2007, but this was postponed to 1 January 2008 (because Estonia did not meet the inflation criterion[33][34]) and then to 1 January 2010,[35] but this is not official yet. The date had slipped further due to the expected inflation level.[36]

On 11 November 2007, Estonian Prime Minister Andrus Ansip vowed to continue tight fiscal policies because he wanted the country to adopt the euro as soon as possible despite current high inflation.[37] On 14 March 2008, he said in an interview with Reuters that he sees eurozone entry in 2011.[38]

Lithuania

The Lithuanian litas is part of ERM II and in practice it is pegged to the euro at a rate of 3.45280 litai = 1 euro.

Lithuania originally set 1 January 2007 as the target date for joining the euro, but their application was rejected by the European Commission because inflation was slightly higher than the permitted maximum.[39] In December 2006 the government approved a new convergence plan which, whilst reaffirming that the government wanted to join the eurozone "as soon as possible", said that expected inflation increases in 2007-8 would mean the best period for joining the euro would be 2010 or after.[40] Prime Minister Gediminas Kirkilas said on 4 December 2007 that Lithuania "will be able to join the eurozone in the time frame of 2010 to 2011."[41]

An opinion poll published in January 2007 showed that more Lithuanians opposed euro adoption than supported it.[39]

Latvia

Latvia has been a member of the European Union since 1 May 2004 and is a member of the Economic and Monetary Union of the European Union. Its currency, the Latvian lats, is in ERM II, and floats within 15% of the central rate, Ls 0.702804 = €1. Latvia had originally planned to adopt the euro on 1 January 2008 but is now expected to introduce the euro in 2012 at the earliest,[42] although the head of the National Bank of Latvia has suggested that 2013 may be a more realistic date.[43]

However, due to the current world financial crisis and the fact that Latvia is asking the IMF for help, it is possible that the IMF will force Latvia to give up its currency peg as a precondition, taking Latvia out of the ERM II and possibly moving the euro adoption date even further.[44]

Denmark

Main article: Denmark and the euro

Denmark has pegged its krone to the euro (€1 = DKK 7.46038 ± 2.25%) and the krone remains in the ERM.

In December 1992 Denmark negotiated a number of opt-out clauses from the Maastricht treaty (see Edinburgh Agreement), including not adopting the euro as currency. This was done in response to the Maastricht treaty having been rejected by the Danish people in a referendum earlier that year. As a result of the changes, the treaty was finally ratified in a subsequent referendum held in 1993. On 28 September 2000, another referendum was held in Denmark regarding the euro resulting in a 53.2% vote against joining.

On 22 November 2007, the newly re-elected Danish government declared its intention to hold a new referendum about abolishing the four opt-out clauses, including the euro, by 2011.[45] A poll was conducted between 31 March and 2 April 2008 with the majority of Danes in favour of adopting the euro.[46]

Obliged to join

The following members must first join ERM II before they can adopt the euro.

Bulgaria

Main article: Bulgaria and the euro

The lev is not part of ERM II, but has been pegged to the euro since its launch. It was previously pegged on a par to the German Mark (1.95583 leva is 1 euro). Hence, Bulgaria already fulfilled the great majority of the EMU membership criteria and must, from 2009, comply with the Maastricht criteria to join the eurozone in 2012, the tentative deadline set by Finance Minister Plamen Oresharski.[47]

While the currency board which pegs Bulgaria to the euro has been seen as beneficial to the country fulfilling EMU criteria so early,[48] the ECB has been pressuring Bulgaria to drop it as it did not know how to let a country using a currency board join the euro. The Prime Minister has stated he would wish to keep the currency board until the euro was adopted, but factors such as high inflation, an unrealistic exchange rate with the euro and the low productivity is made worse by the system.[49]

Bulgaria meets three and fails on two criteria in order to join the eurozone. It derogates on the price stability criterion, which envisages that its inflation does not exceed that of the three EU member states with the lowest inflation (Malta, the Netherlands and Denmark) by 1.5%. Bulgaria’s inflation in the 12 months to March 2008 reached 9.4%, well above the reference value of 3.2%, the report said.

On the upside, Bulgaria fulfils the state budget criterion, which foresees that the deficit does not exceed 3% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). Over the past few years, the report said, the country has consistently improved its budget fundamentals and since 2003, a break-even point, the budget ran surpluses and in 2007 was at 3.4% of GDP. The EC forecasts that it will remain at 3.2% of GDP in both 2008 and 2009.

In regard to public debt, Bulgaria has also been within the prescribed cap of 60% of GDP. Government debt has also been declining consistently, from 50% of GDP to 18% in 2007. The expectation are to reach 11% of GDP in 2009.[50]

Some recent analysis says that Bulgaria will not be able to join the Eurozone earlier than 2015, due to their inflation problems and the impact of the global financial crisis of 2008.[51]. However Bulgarian government considers unilateral introduction of the euro, which is not well-met by the European Commission[52]

Czech Republic

Main article: Czech Republic and the euro

The Czech Republic is similarly bound by the Treaty of Accession 2003 to join the euro at some point, but this is not likely to come soon. The koruna is not part of ERM II. Since joining the EU in 2004, the Czech Republic has adopted a fiscal and monetary policy that aims to align its macroeconomic conditions with the rest of the European Union. Currently, the most pressing issue is the large Czech fiscal deficit. Originally, the Czech Republic aimed for entry into the ERM II in 2008 or 2009, but the current government has officially dropped the 2010 target date, saying it will clearly not meet the economic criteria. It has been suggested that 2013 is the earliest possible changeover date.

Hungary

Main article: Hungary and the euro

Hungary's government has all but dropped plans to adopt the euro by the original date of 1 January 2010. Most financial studies, such as those produced by Standard & Poor's and by Fitch Ratings, suggest that Hungary will not be able to adopt the common European currency before 2011 - 2012, due to the country's high deficit, which in 2006 exceeded 10% of the GDP. On the other hand in 2007, the deficit decreased under 5% and at the and of 2008, it will reach 3.8%. Due to the good convergence program, Goldman Sachs said that Hungary can join in ERM in 2009 and adopt euro in 2012-2013.

Poland

Main article: Poland and the euro

Poland is bound by the Treaty of Accession 2003 to join the euro at some point, but current indications are that this will not be for several years to come as economic criteria must be met. The złoty is not part of ERM II, itself a requirement for euro membership.

On 10 September 2008, speaking at the launch of an economic forum in a Polish resort of Krynica-Zdrój, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced the ruling government's objective to join the Eurozone in 2012, by holding a referendum in 2010 and being approved by the European Central Bank in 2011.[53][54][55] However, since the Polish constitution will need to be changed first[56] and they will have to join the ERM 2 before second quarter 2009,[57] this target date is still very aggressive.

Romania

Main article: Romania and the euro

Romania will replace the current national currency, the Romanian leu, with the euro once Romania fulfils the convergence criteria. The euro will probably be adopted by Romania in 2014, but not before 2011, according to Romanian National Bank's governor, Mugur Isărescu.

Sweden

Main article: Sweden and the euro

According to the 1994 accession treaty [1], approved by referendum (52% in favour of the treaty), Sweden is required to join the euro and therefore must convert to the euro at some point. However, on 14 September 2003, 56% of Swedes voted against adopting the euro in a second referendum .[58] The Swedish government has argued that staying outside the euro is legal since one of the requirements for eurozone membership is a prior two-year membership of the ERM II; by simply choosing to stay outside the exchange rate mechanism, the Swedish government is provided a formal loophole avoiding the requirement of adopting the euro. Some of Sweden's major parties continue to believe that it would be in the national interest to join, but they have all pledged to abide by the result of the referendum for the time being and show no interest in raising the issue.

A very optimistic timetable is to hold a new referendum in 2012 and adopt the euro in 2015. A slower timetable than this is more than likely. Before the September 2006 parliamentary elections, all major parties agreed not to raise the question before the next parliamentary elections (due in September 2010). The parties seem to agree that Sweden would not adopt the euro until after a second referendum. The Prime minister stated in December 2007 that there will be no referendum until there is a stable support in the polls.[59] The polls have instead shown a stable support for the "no" alternative. The latest one from November 2007 showed 35% yes, 51% no, 14% uncertain.[60] The EU has made it clear that it will tolerate this with respect to Sweden but not those member states that joined in 2004 or 2007.

United Kingdom

Main article: United Kingdom and the euro
Further information: five economic tests

The British currency is the pound sterling and the country has an opt-out from eurozone membership. The government of former Prime Minister Tony Blair set "five economic tests" that must be passed before it can recommend that the UK join the euro; and pledged to hold a public referendum for deciding membership should those five economic tests be met. In addition to this own internal (national) criteria, the UK has to meet the EU's economic convergence criteria (Maastricht criteria), before being allowed to adopt the euro. As of 2008, the UK satisfies all the convergence criteria set by the EU for adoption of the euro, except membership of the ERM II.

Furthermore, the United Kingdom redesigned most of its coinage in 2008, which is seen by some as an indication that the country has no intention of switching to the euro within the foreseeable future.[61] Though in a recent contradicting settlement the European Commissioner, Jose Barroso, told French radio that British politicians were considering the move because of the effects of the global credit crisis.[62].

The Sovereign Base Areas of Akrotiri and Dhekelia introduced the Euro at the same time as Cyprus on 2008-01-01, as they previously used the Cypriot Pound. They do not have separate euro coins.

Future members

It is assumed that Croatia will soon become a member of the European Union. Negotiations are nearly finished and membership is expected in 2010 or 2011. Croatia would then be obliged to adopt the euro. Croatia fulfils the convergence criteria (inflation 2.6%, budget balance -3,0%, public debt 56.2% year 2006) but the adoption of the euro would take at least three years after membership (Slovenia took 3 years).

Because of instability in the Icelandic króna there has been some discussion in Iceland about adopting the euro without becoming an EU member. The EU does not allow this and the Icelandic government isn't planning to join.[63] There is also discussion on membership of the European Union itself (see Iceland and the European Union), which would oblige Iceland to adopt the euro.

Summary of adoption progress

See also: Convergence criteria

The new member states should be adopting the euro as soon as appropriate guidelines are met. For these new member states, the single currency was "part of the package" of European Union membership – unlike the UK and Denmark, "opting out" is not permitted.

The dates the remaining states are expected to enter the third stage of the EMU and adopt the euro vary: 2009 for Slovakia; early 2010 for Lithuania; 2011 for Estonia; 2012 for Bulgaria, Latvia and Poland; 2014 for Romania. The Czech Republic was set to join on 1 January 2010, but can no longer do so due to economic conditions. A new date has not been set, it will probably not be before 2012. Hungary has also abandoned its original target date 2010, without any new date.

On 16 May 2006 the European Commission recommended Slovenia to become a new member of the eurozone. This occurred on 1 January 2007. On May 2007 the European Commission recommended the same for Cyprus and Malta and occurred from 1 January 2008.

Showing the ability to move towards full economic and monetary union is one requisite of "good membership". The ECB and European Commission produce reports every two years analysing the economic and other conditions of non-eurozone EU members, reporting on their suitability for joining the eurozone. The first to include the 10 new members was published in October 2004.[64]

 Slovakia  Estonia  Lithuania  Bulgaria  Hungary  Latvia
Target date for euro adoption 1 January 2009 1 January 2011 1 January 2010 1 January 2012 Not set Not before 2012[65]
ERM II entry 28 Nov 2005 28 June 2004 28 June 2004 Expected in 2009 Expected in 2009-2010[66] 2 May 2005
Co-ordinating institution Ministry of Finance The National Changeover Committee, created on 27 January 2005 Commission for the Coordination of the Adoption of the euro in Lithuania, created on 30 May 2005 Preparatory work is ongoing in the Ministry of Finance and Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary) The Steering Committee for the preparation and coordination of the euro changeover was established on 18 July 2005
Approved National Changeover Plan First draft approved on 1 September 2005[67] Report approved by the government on 21 June 2005. NCP will be approved in November 2005 First version approved by the government on 27 September 2005 Not yet approved Approved on 6 July 2005
Type of scenario Big-Bang[citation needed] Big-Bang[citation needed] Big-Bang[citation needed] Big-Bang with possible phase out features[citation needed] Big-Bang with possible phase out features
Dual circulation period 16 days 2 weeks 15 days 1 month 2 weeks
Exchange of national currency Comm. bank: banknotes until end 2009, coins until June 2009. Central bank: banknotes indefinitely, coins for 5 years Comm. banks at least 6 months, Central bank indefinitely Commercial banks 60 days, Central bank indefinitely. Central bank: indefinitely
Dual display of prices Compulsory: from one month after fixing of conversion rate till one year after euro adoption. Voluntary: for an additional 6 months 6 months before and after €-day 60 calendar days before until 60 days after €-day October 2007-June 2008
National mint Yes No Yes Yes Yes No
National side Approved Approved Approved Not yet decided Not yet decided Approved
Nr of different coin designs 3 1 3 3
Need for banknotes and coins 150-200 million coins 118.3 million banknotes, 290 million coins 87 million banknotes and 300 million coins
Law adaptations Umbrella law under consideration Draft law on the adoption of the euro is prepared
Communication strategy Endorsed by the National Changeover Committee on 21 June 2005 Endorsed by the government on 27 September 2005
 Czech Republic  Poland  Romania  Sweden  Denmark  United Kingdom
Target date for euro adoption Not before 2012 1 January 2012 1 January 2014[68] Not under consideration Referendum to be held Not under consideration
ERM II entry 2009 Not before 2012 Not under consideration 1 January 1999 Not under consideration
Co-ordinating institution Inter-institutional working group MoF-NBP
Approved National Changeover Plan Approved on 11 April 2007[69]
Type of scenario Big-Bang Big-Bang
Dual circulation period
Exchange of national currency
Dual display of prices 5 months before adoption
12 months after adoption
National mint Yes Yes Yes
National side Competition under consideration Public survey under consideration Not yet decided Not yet decided Not yet decided Not yet decided
Nr of different coin designs
Need for banknotes and coins 230 million banknotes and 950 million coins
Law adaptations
Communication strategy

See also

References

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