2012 Republican Party presidential primaries

Republican presidential primaries, 2012

States in blue are the early states that will vote first, states in orange are the small states that will vote second, states in green, purple and gold are the large states that will vote either third, fourth or fifth, rotating every election cycle.

Incumbent President Barack Obama Democratic

The Republican presidential primaries for the United States presidential election, 2012 will be held in the 2012 calendar year and be used to determine the presidential nominee of the Republican Party.

Calendar Schedule

Ohio Plan

The Republican Party decided in 2008 that they would implement an Ohio Plan that would divide the primary states into three tiers: early states, small states, and large states. It would allow the early states to retain their status and tradition of being states that vote first. By the end of February 2012, nineteen small states comprising just fifty electoral votes would be allowed to vote. In March, the last states, the largest ones, would then have their primaries.

Convention

Though no plans have been brought forward about which city or the week the Republican National Convention for 2012 will take place, it has been speculated that Republicans will take a usual late convention approach and schedule a convention after the London 2012 Olympics (whose closing ceremonies are scheduled to take place on August 12, 2012.) Traditionally, the party which holds the White House gets to go last, which means that this time the Republicans would have their convention before President Obama's Democrats do. There has been a trend during recent cycles of having the conventions very late in the summer: indeed, the last two Republican conventions took place in early September rather than July or August.

Several cities have been suggested as planning for a 2012 Convention bid including:

• Indianapolis, Indiana,
• Atlanta, Georgia
• San Antonio, Texas

Possible Republican candidates

Further information: United States presidential election, 2012

No person has announced his or her intention to run for the Republican Party nomination. Since the primaries have not yet begun, it is too early to definitively determine who will actually run. The following are individuals who may or may not have an interest in running for President in the 2012 election. The list contains individuals who have either declared interest in a candidacy or have been speculated as possible candidates in articles by pundits and journalists. Some of these individuals have claimed they no longer have an interest in running. However, unless it has been stated in reliable sources that a candidate has been ruled out due to disqualifying circumstances, the candidate will remain on this list, which is arranged in chronological order by the article cited with the latest publication date. Only candidates with a source, that speculated that he/she may run, within the past six months can be on this list.

Former Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska		July 3, 2009: Paul Volpe of The Washington Post wrote that her decision to resign as Governor before the end of that month would allow her to "build a national political team and travel the country in support of an expected 2012 presidential bid," July 4, 2009: political analyst Larry Sabato argued that the announcement "eliminates her from serious consideration for the presidency in 2012." July 8, 2009: According to the Miami Herald, she told ABC's Good Morning America that she recognizes she might not have political staying power after her surprise resignation Friday, which came just as she had been expected to elevate her national profile ahead of a possible 2012 GOP presidential run. 'I said before . . . `You know, politically speaking, if I die, I die. So be it,' she said. I'm not going to take the comfortable path. I'm going to take the right path for the state, she said of her resignation, which she characterized as a matter of progressing in an unconventional way. ``That caught people off guard. . . . . It's out of the box and unconventional. That's what we are as Alaskans and certainly how I am as a public servant. Palin criticized President Barack Obama, a possible sign she's looking toward the 2012 presidential race. July 31, 2009: According to Michael Falcone of Politico.com, "Alaskans divided on Sarah Palin after exit" August 5, 2009: USA Today reported that "Her long-term political plans are unclear — and there's speculation about a possible a 2012 presidential bid" because of her plans to write a book and that John McCain had said, "he sees Sarah Palin continuing to play a major role in the future of the Republican Party."
Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich of Georgia		March 5, 2009: Gingrich said that he would "look seriously" at the prospect of a 2012 presidential run. August 3, 2009: According to NewsMax, "Newt Gingrich’s political group, quietly pulled in $8.1 million in the first half of the year", but they also reported that according to Politico "the former speaker of the House's group has at least 17 employees, however Gingrich’s aides said the group is not a campaign-in-waiting for Gingrich, who makes many short lists of prospective 2012 GOP presidential contenders."
Former Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas		June 10, 2009: Huckabee has visited Iowa three times since his victory in the 2008 Iowa caucuses. When asked about his organization in Iowa and a potential 2012 run in an interview with Radio Iowa, Huckabee said that there was "nothing formal yet." July 31, 2009: According to Ben Smith of Politico, "Mike Huckabee reports raising just over $300,000 [sic] for his PAC in the first half of the year, about a third of Palin's take in a shorter period and less than a quarter of Romney's, but not nothing for a guy who has shown his strength in Iowa."
Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani of New York		July 2, 2009: Fred Barnes, Executive Editor of The Weekly Standard, told Fox News that if "Rudy Giuliani runs in New York and is elected governor. That would sure line him up for another race" for the White House in 2012. July 26, 2009: Matt Lewis of AOL's Politics Daily wrote that, following Obama's comments regarding the arrest of Henry Louis Gates, Giuliani's strength in New England and on law and order issues could make Republican voters "more willing to overlook Rudy's flaws." July 30, 2009: Giuliani told Campbell Brown on CNN that "the GOP must become competitive again in the Northeast and in the west". He went on to say he is one of the kind of Republicans that can win in California and New York. He then concluded that he is "keeping his options open on running again for President."
Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota		June 12, 2009: U.S. News & World Report reported that Pawlenty would travel the country to build support for a presidential run, before deciding in 2011 whether "there is enough of a base on which to build his campaign." July 27, 2009: it was announced that Pawlenty would be the vice chairman of the Republican Governors Association, and will form a PAC. Analyst Chris Cillizza of The Washington Post said on that this step moves Pawlenty up to the almost certain to run category along with Romney.
Former Governor Gary E. Johnson of New Mexico		November 18, 2008: In the November '08 edition of The Western Standard, author and political pundit Marc Emery published an article entitled "Gary Johnson for President 2012," in which he posited that Johnson could win the support of Rep. Ron Paul if Johnson chose to embark on a presidential campaign in 2012. April 20, 2009: In the April '09 edition of The American Conservative Magazine, Bill Kauffman told readers to "keep an eye out" for a Johnson presidential campaign in 2012, reporting that Johnson had told him that "he was keeping his options open for 2012" and that "he may take a shot at the Republican presidential nomination in 2012 as an antiwar, anti-Fed, pro-personal liberties, slash-government-spending candidate—in other words, a Ron Paul libertarian". June 24, 2009: During an appearance on FOX News's Freedom Watch, host Judge Andrew Napolitano asked Johnson if he would run for President in 2012, to which Johnson responded that he thought it would be inappropriate to openly express his desires before President Obama is given the opportunity to prove himself, but he followed up that statement by saying "it appears personal freedoms are being shoveled out the window, more and more." July 25, 2009: Approximately 86% of Republicans had yet to form an opinion of him as a presidential candidate, according to an Angus Reid Strategies national poll.
Representative Mike Pence of Indiana		February 9, 2009: Pence's fiscal conservatism and opposition to the policies of the Obama administration have been given as reasons voters may support him in 2012. June 24, 2009: Domenico Montanaro of MSNBC wrote that Pence has "made the cable rounds, but it remains to be seen if average voters could pick him out of a lineup." July 13, 2009: Congressional Quarterly reported that Pence had scheduled "a trip to Iowa starting July 25.". Pence, however, told The Des Moines Register. July 24, 2009: "I have no plans to run for president. I'm entirely focused on the people of eastern Indiana and electing as many Republicans to the U.S. House as we can. The future will take care of itself."
Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana	File:LouisianaGovernor.jpg	December 10, 2008: At a news conference Jindal was asked whether he planned to run for president in 2012, to which he replied "no", but did not rule out changing his mind. February 25–26, 2009: Jindal delivered the official Republican response to President Obama's speech to a joint session of congress, which was poorly received by the media, so much so that some of them question the possibility of him running for president in 2012. March 25, 2009: CNN reported during an interview Jindal, that he "sidestepped questions", but still consider him a "potential 2012 presidential candidate" based upon his strong defense of Republicans wanting "President Obama to fail if they think he's jeopardizing the country". July 22, 2009: Having been "touted as a top prospect for the GOP ticket in 2012" prior to his January speech, Chris Good of The Atlantic called his appearances and speeches over the health care debate, "The Return of Jindal".
Representative Ron Paul of Texas		March 2, 2009: When asked whether he planned to run in 2012, Paul replied "I don't think so, I'm not planning on that. It's a long way off. I hardly can visualize what the country is going to be like then." July 21, 2009: Justin Miller of The Atlantic complained of him being left out by pollsters and said, "it should include room for U.S. Rep. Ron Paul."
House Minority Whip Eric Cantor of Virginia		February 23, 2009: Time published an article characterising Cantor as a "2012 wannabe" and "the Newt Gingrich of his generation". July 16, 2009: Mary Ann Akers of The Washington Post reported that Cantor had been receiving speech coaching and wrote that "It's not exactly a secret that Cantor, who has been playing a more visible role lately, has ambitions for higher office."
Former Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts		November 13, 2008: Many news outlets have mentioned him as a potential candidate since the election ended, December 8, 2008: He has started hiring staff through his Free and Strong America Political Action Committee January 22, 2009: His reiteration of his pro-life views. July 3, 2009: He plans to publish an "ideas book describing challenges in America" in early 2010.
Former Governor Jeb Bush of Florida		January 4, 2009: His father, former President George H. W. Bush, said "I'd like to see him be president some day," May 12, 2009: Former Vice President Dick Cheney said that he would "probably support him for president." June 26, 2009: John Aloysius Farrell of the U.S. News & World Report commented that recent "self-destructions" by other potential candidates made a Bush run "not impossible."
Governor Haley Barbour of Mississippi		June 9, 2009: reported that the New Hampshire Republican State Committee had sent out an invitation to an "evening with Haley Barbour". An unnamed "GOP operative" was quoted as saying "When you start going to Iowa and New Hampshire, the writing's on the wall." June 23, 2009: Barbour said that he would "probably never" make a decision on running for president. June 25, 2009: Barbour visited Iowa again sidestepping discussion about his presidential bid until after the 2010 elections. “If after that, it seems like a reasonable thing, I will consider it... I have no intention to run for president. But I’ve been around long enough to ‘say never say never’”.
Governor Mark Sanford of South Carolina	File:Governor Mark Sanford Jobs and Growth Tour.jpg	February 4, 2009: Sanford had been considered a potential 2012 candidate due to his opposition to the Obama administration and the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. February 22, 2009: When asked about a potential run in February 2009, Sanford said that he had no plans and did not consider it likely, but also said that he had "learned never to guarantee tomorrow when you don't know tomorrow." June 24, 2009: Sanford called a press conference and confessed to an extramarital affair, and announced that he would resign as Chair of the Republican Governors Association. Prior to the revelation of the affair, an unnamed "former Reagan and Bush adviser" was quoted as saying that Sanford had "disqualified himself" from the 2012 race.
Senator John Ensign of Nevada		April 7, 2009: The National Journal reported that Ensign would speak at an American Future Fund event in Iowa on June 1, describing it as "a move that will stoke speculation about his political future." May 13, 2009: He later added two extra events in Iowa in June. June 16, 2009: Ensign admitted to having had an extramarital affair with a member of his campaign staff. June 17, 2009: He resigned his position as Republican Policy Committee Chairman.
Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana		December 30, 2008: Chris Cillizza of The Washington Post described Daniels's 2008 gubernatorial campaign as "the best gubernatorial campaign of 2008", noting that his campaign was "a testament to ... why he is already being touted in some circles as a 2012 presidential candidate for the GOP." May 11, 2009 – June 5, 2009: The possibility of a Daniels candidacy was mentioned by William Kristol, and Byron York. June 5, 2009: Speaking at a panel discussion hosted by the Hudson Institute, Daniels ended speculation that he will run by saying "I've only ever run for or held one office. It's the last one I'm going to hold."
Former Vice President Dick Cheney of Wyoming		May 12, 2009: Since leaving office Cheney has frequently criticized the Obama administration. May 22, 2009: His actions against The Obama Administration led Steve Benen of Washington Monthly to speculate that Cheney was considering a run. June 2, 2009: Cheney's actions against Obama also led Peter Roff of U.S. News & World Report to make a similar specuation..

Hypothetical polling

• Nationwide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2012
• Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2012
• Statewide Opinion polling for the Republican Party (United States) presidential primaries, 2012