2012 United States Senate elections: Difference between revisions
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Connecticut Attorney General [[Richard Blumenthal]] is considering a run as a Democrat.<ref>http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/connecticut-attorney-general-mulls-run-against-lieberman-2009-02-03.html</ref> [[Ned Lamont]], the 2006 Democratic nominee, is not running.<ref>http://newbritainherald.com/articles/2009/02/19/news/doc499ccdb19a67a140246762.txt</ref> |
Connecticut Attorney General [[Richard Blumenthal]] is considering a run as a Democrat.<ref>http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/connecticut-attorney-general-mulls-run-against-lieberman-2009-02-03.html</ref> [[Ned Lamont]], the 2006 Democratic nominee, is not running.<ref>http://newbritainherald.com/articles/2009/02/19/news/doc499ccdb19a67a140246762.txt</ref> |
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Pundits have predicted that due to Lieberman's unwavering support of John McCain he will be experiencing a tougher race |
Pundits have predicted that due to Lieberman's unwavering support of John McCain he will be experiencing a tougher race than he normally runs.<ref name="senate party"> |
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Revision as of 22:45, 11 August 2009
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Class I (33 of the 100) seats in the United States Senate | |||
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 Senate Seats up for election: Democratic incumbent Independent incumbent Republican incumbent Retiring Republican Seat to be determined by 2010 Special Election No election | |||
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Elections to the United States Senate will be held on November 6, 2012, with 33 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested. Each of these is a regular election; the winners will serve six-year terms from January 3, 2013 until January 3, 2019. Democrats have 24 seats up for election, including 2 independents who caucus with the Democrats, and Republicans have 9 seats up for election.
The 2012 presidential election, elections to the House of Representatives, elections for governors in 13 states and territories, and many state and local elections will also be held on this date.
Predictions
| Source | Safe Democratic* | Likely Democratic* | Leans Democratic* | Tossup | Leans Republican | Likely Republican | Safe Republican |
| The Cook Political Report |
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| CQ Politics |
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| The Rothenberg Political Report |
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| Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball |
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*The Democrats include Independent Democrat Joe Lieberman, who ran and won as an independent in 2006 after losing the Connecticut Democratic primary. Lieberman and Independent Bernie Sanders of Vermont both caucus with the Democratic Party.
Composition
The composition of the Senate going into the 2012 election will depend on the results of the 2010 elections. Among the Senators up for election in 2012, there will be 23 Democrats, 9 Republicans, and 1 Independent. The Democrats include Independent Democrat Joe Lieberman, who ran and won as an independent in 2006 after losing the Connecticut Democratic primary. Lieberman and Independent Bernie Sanders of Vermont both caucus with the Democratic Party.
There may be some additional changes if Senators die or resign. If Senators in other classes die or resign between 2010 and 2012, there may be additional special elections between the beginning of the 110th Congress (on January 3, 2007), and the 2012 election. The dates between which the death or resignation of a Senator would lead a special election during this time period vary from state to state.
Races
Retiring Senators
Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) of Texas
In an interview with Texas Monthly published in December 2007, Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison stated that she will not seek re-election and may also resign from the Senate as early as 2009.[1] Hutchison was re-elected in 2006 with 62% of the vote despite a poor overall climate for Republicans, who lost control of both chambers of Congress that year. After the 2008 elections, Hutchison formed an exploratory committee to run for governor in 2010.
If Hutchison does step down early, Republican Governor Rick Perry will likely appoint a Republican replacement that may also double as the leading candidate for a special election that likely will involve multiple Democrats seeking the seat. If Hutchison serves out her term and upholds her stance to retire, numerous candidates from both parties will run for her seat. Even though Texas is generally a Republican state, Democrats have been gaining ground there for the past several years because of dissatisfaction with the Bush Administration and the increase of Latino and other minority populations in Texas, which tend to vote Democratic.
For the Republicans, Texas Railroad Commissioner Michael L. Williams, Republican fundraiser and former state Secretary of the State Roger Williams, and state Railroad Commissioner Elizabeth Ames Jones are candidates.[2][3] Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert has also been mentioned as a possible contender for the seat, as well as Greg Abbott and David Dewhurst.
Possible Democratic challengers include Bill White, the mayor of Houston, who expressed interest in running for Hutchinson's Senate seat if she resigns.[4] and has announced his candidacy for the seat. John Sharp, the former state comptroller, has said he will run whenever the seat comes up for an election.[5]
Democratic incumbent elections
Dianne Feinstein of California
Four-term Senator Dianne Feinstein was re-elected with 59% of the vote in 2006. She has not announced if she will seek another term in 2012, when she will be 79 years old.
However, Feinstein may run for Governor of California in 2010.[6]
Tom Carper of Delaware
Two-term Senator Tom Carper was reelected with 70% of the vote in 2006.
Bill Nelson of Florida
Two-term Senator Bill Nelson was reelected with 60% of the vote in 2006. He will be 70 years old in 2012.
Daniel Akaka of Hawaii
Four-term Senator Daniel Akaka was re-elected with 62% of the vote in 2006. He will be 88 years old in 2012.
Former Congressman Ed Case, who unsuccessfully ran against Akaka in the 2006 Senate election, has hinted that he might run for Akaka's seat in 2012, and he has already started fundraising for such a run [7].
Ben Cardin of Maryland
First-term Senator Ben Cardin was elected with 54% of the vote in 2006 against former Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael S. Steele. He will be 69 years old in 2012.
Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts
Eight-term Senator Ted Kennedy was re-elected with 69% of the vote in 2006. He will be 80 years old in 2012.
In May 2008, Kennedy was diagnosed with a malignant glioma, a form of brain cancer.
Debbie Stabenow of Michigan
Two-term Senator Debbie Stabenow was re-elected in 2006 with 57% of the vote to 41% for Oakland County Sheriff and former State Senate Majority Leader Michael Bouchard after narrowly defeating Republican incumbent Spencer Abraham in 2000.
Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land is looking at running. [8]
Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota
First-term Senator Amy Klobuchar was elected with 58% of the vote in 2006. Senator Klobuchar's approval ratings, last reported at 59%, have steadily risen since her election in November 2006. Her quick response to the I-35 bridge collapse in her home city of Minneapolis and her travels around the state seem to have kept the senator's numbers up with the citizens of Minnesota.
Claire McCaskill of Missouri
First-term Senator Claire McCaskill was elected with 49.6% of the vote in 2006, defeating then-incumbent Jim Talent. Missouri is often considered a swing state in presidential elections; it has voted for the winning candidate save twice since 1904—in 1956 and in 2008.
McCaskill has never had particularly high approval ratings. In March 2009, her net approval was +5.
Jon Tester of Montana
First-term Senator Jon Tester was elected with 49.2% of the vote in 2006, defeating incumbent Conrad Burns.
Ben Nelson of Nebraska
Two-term Senator and former Governor Ben Nelson was re-elected with 64% of the vote in 2006. He will be 71 years old in 2012.
Bob Menendez of New Jersey
First-term Senator Bob Menendez became the first Hispanic Senator to represent New Jersey in January 2006 when Former Senator Jon Corzine appointed him to the office after having resigned to become Governor. In November 2006 Menendez survived a strong challenge from Republican Tom Kean, Jr., son of popular former Governor and 9/11 Commission Chairman Tom Kean and was elected to a full term.
Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico
Five-term Senator Jeff Bingaman was re-elected with 71% of the vote in 2006. He will be 69 years old in 2012.
Kent Conrad of North Dakota
Four-term Senator Kent Conrad was re-elected with 69% of the vote in 2006.
Sherrod Brown of Ohio
First-term Senator Sherrod Brown was elected with 56% of the vote in 2006, defeating then-incumbent Mike DeWine, whose popularity suffered due to scandals involving former Republican Governor Bob Taft and ex-Congressman Bob Ney.
Bob Casey, Jr. of Pennsylvania
First-term Senator Bob Casey, Jr., the son of popular former Governor Bob Casey, was elected with 58.7% of the vote in 2006, defeating then-incumbent Rick Santorum.
Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island
First-term Senator Sheldon Whitehouse was elected with 53.5% of the vote in 2006, defeating then-incumbent Lincoln Chafee by 6 percentage points.
Jim Webb of Virginia
First-term Senator and former Secretary of the Navy Jim Webb was elected to the Senate in 2006 by a margin of .6 percent, defeating then-incumbent George Allen in the biggest upset of the 2006 election. He will be 64 years old in 2010.
Robert Byrd of West Virginia
Nine-term Senator Robert Byrd, the longest serving U.S. Senator in history, was re-elected with 64.4% of the vote in 2006. Byrd will be 95 in 2012. If Byrd decides to run for re-election again and win, he will be 101 in 2018 when his next term will end, which will make him the oldest Senator ever in U.S. history (assuming he runs for re-election and serves out his term).
He voluntarily stepped down from his chairmanship of the powerful Appropriations Committee, effective January 6, 2009. In a speech on the Senate floor, Sen. Byrd proclaimed that he would remain in the Senate "till this old body drops."[9][10]
Republicans are waiting to see what Representative Shelley Moore Capito does before announcing their candidacies because of her high name recognition, and perception that she could the strongest Republican candidate in the race. [11]
Maria Cantwell of Washington
Two-term Senator Maria Cantwell was re-elected with 57% of the vote in 2006 over Republican Mike McGavick.
Herb Kohl of Wisconsin
Four-term Senator Herb Kohl, owner of the NBA's Milwaukee Bucks, was re-elected with 67% of the vote in 2006. He will be 77 years old in 2012.
Congressman Paul Ryan will not run against Kohl if he seeks reelection but will take a look at running for the Senate if Kohl were to retire. [12]
Independent incumbent elections
Joe Lieberman of Connecticut
Four-term Senator Joe Lieberman sat as a Democrat until 2006, when he was defeated by Ned Lamont in the Democratic primary. He won re-election with 49.7% of the vote in 2006 as an independent under the Connecticut for Lieberman Party and has since caucused with the Democrats as an "Independent Democrat." He will be 70 years old in 2012.
Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal is considering a run as a Democrat.[13] Ned Lamont, the 2006 Democratic nominee, is not running.[14]
Pundits have predicted that due to Lieberman's unwavering support of John McCain he will be experiencing a tougher race than he normally runs.[15]
Bernie Sanders of Vermont
First-term Senator Bernie Sanders is an independent Senator (and self-described democratic socialist) who caucuses with the Democrats and won election with 65.4% of the vote in 2006 after Jim Jeffords, also an independent, retired. He will be 71 years old in 2012.
Republican incumbent elections
Jon Kyl of Arizona
Three-term Senator Jon Kyl was re-elected with 53% of the vote in 2006. He has yet to announce if he will seek a fourth term in 2012, when he will be 70 years old.
Richard Lugar of Indiana
Six-term Senator Richard Lugar was re-elected with 87% of the vote in 2006, running unopposed by a Democrat.
Olympia Snowe of Maine
Three-term Senator Olympia Snowe was re-elected with 73% of the vote in 2006, the largest margin of any incumbent in 2006, barring Indiana Senator Richard Lugar (who ran without a Democratic opponent). She will be 65 years old in 2012.
Roger Wicker of Mississippi
First-term Senator Roger Wicker was appointed after former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott announced on November 26, 2007 that he was going to retire by the end of 2007.[2] Wicker defeated former Governor Ronnie Musgrove in the 2008 special election and will be up for re-election in 2012.
John Ensign of Nevada
Two-term Senator John Ensign was re-elected with 55% of the vote in 2006 against Jack Carter, son of former Democratic President Jimmy Carter.
In June 2009, Ensign admitted to an affair that he had with a campaign staffer. Sources also reported blackmail with the husband of the women involved apparently asking Ensign for a substantial amount of money. [16] On July 14, 2009, Ensign announced that he was running for reelection.[17]
Nevada Democrats are encouraging Representative Shelley Berkley to run for the seat. [18]
Bob Corker of Tennessee
First-term Senator Bob Corker was elected with 50.7% of the vote in 2006. He narrowly defeated Harold Ford, Jr. and has been raising money for re-election since. Country music singer Hank Williams, Jr. has expressed an interest in challenging Corker for the GOP nomination in 2012.[19].
Orrin Hatch of Utah
Six-term Senator and former Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch was re-elected with 62% of the vote in 2006. He will be 78 years old in 2012.
John Barrasso of Wyoming
First-term Senator John Barrasso was appointed to the Senate seat with the passing of Craig L. Thomas and won a special election in 2008 to complete Thomas's term.
Unknown incumbent elections
Kirsten Gillibrand of New York
Two-term Senator Hillary Clinton was re-elected with 67% of the vote in 2006. She narrowly lost the 2008 Democratic Presidential nomination to Barack Obama. She resigned on January 21, 2009 when the Senate confirmed her as Secretary of State. On January 23, Governor David Paterson appointed Congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand to the seat. There will be a special election in 2010; whoever wins it will then be up for election again in 2012.
Fundraising
Massie Ritsch, communications director for the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics said that fundraising is almost a full-time job. For example, Senator Bob Corker (R, TN) set up "the Bob Corker for Senate 2012 committee" on Nov. 8, 2006, or one day after winning a six-year term.[20]
Senate contests in 2012
References
- ^ http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/5216932.html
- ^ White announces Senate campaign via Web video
- ^ http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/APStories/stories/D9543QVO0.html
- ^ http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/politics/6099733.html
- ^ http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/APStories/stories/D94UO7O00.html
- ^ Dan Walters: Feinstein is playing it coy on a 2010 run for governor
- ^ http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070719/NEWS01/707190332/1001/NEWS01
- ^ Beth Loechler (2009-02-20). [Profile: Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land is in the driver's seat "Profile: Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land is in the driver's seat"]. The Grand Rapids Press.
{{cite web}}: Check|url=value (help) - ^ Robert Byrd Defends His Age (Part 1) Youtube.
- ^ Robert Byrd Defends His Age (Part 2) Youtube.
- ^ http://www.newsandsentinel.com/page/content.detail/id/518301.html?nav=5061
- ^ http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/43705712.html
- ^ http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/connecticut-attorney-general-mulls-run-against-lieberman-2009-02-03.html
- ^ http://newbritainherald.com/articles/2009/02/19/news/doc499ccdb19a67a140246762.txt
- ^ "Senators of the 110th Congress". U.S. Senate. 2006-01-03..
- ^ http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0609/23813.html
- ^ a b Mascaro, Lisa (July 14, 2009). "Ensign to stay in Senate, seek reelection". Las Vegas Sun. Retrieved July 14, 2009.
{{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in:|publisher=(help) - ^ http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2009/jul/10/gop-support-ensign-dwindles-new-affair-details-eme/
- ^ [1]
- ^ Michael Davis "Corker sets up re-election panel 1 day after win. Action called necessary for 'full-time job' of fundraising." Chattanooga Times/Free Press, Tenn. Knight Ridder Tribune Business News. Washington: Dec 12, 2006. pg. 1. Source type: Wire Feed. ProQuest document ID: 1178614851 Text Word Count 261 Document URL: http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=1178614851&sid=1&Fmt=3&clientId=76566&RQT=309&VName=PQD (subscription)