2012 Republican Party presidential primaries

Republican presidential primaries, 2012

States in blue are the early states that will vote first, states in orange are the small states that will vote second, states in green, purple and gold are the large states that will vote either third, fourth or fifth, rotating every election cycle.

Incumbent President Barack Obama Democratic

The Republican presidential primaries for the United States presidential election, 2012 will be held in the 2012 calendar year and be used to determine the presidential nominee of the Republican Party.

Calendar Schedule

Ohio Plan

The Republican Party decided in 2008 to implement an Ohio Plan that would divide the primary states into three tiers: early states, small states, and large states. It would allow the early states to retain their status and tradition of being states that vote first. By the end of February 2012, nineteen small states comprising just fifty electoral votes would be allowed to vote. In March, the last states, the largest ones, would then have their primaries.

Convention

Though no plans have been brought forward about which city or the week the Republican National Convention for 2012 will take place, it has been speculated that Republicans will take a usual late convention approach and schedule a convention after the London 2012 Olympics (whose closing ceremonies are scheduled to take place on August 12, 2012.) Traditionally, the party which holds the White House is the last to hold its convention, which means that in 2012 the Republican Convention will likely be held prior to the Democratic Convention. There has been a trend during recent cycles of having the conventions very late in the summer: indeed, the last two Republican conventions took place in early September rather than July or August.

Several cities have been suggested as planning for a 2012 Convention bid including:

• Indianapolis, Indiana,
• Atlanta, Georgia
• San Antonio, Texas

Possible Republican candidates

Further information: United States presidential election, 2012

No person has announced his or her intention to run for the Republican Party nomination. Since the primaries have not yet begun, it is too early to definitively determine who will actually run. The following are individuals who may or may not have an interest in running for President in the 2012 election. The list contains individuals who have either publicly expressed interest in a candidacy or who are being discussed about running or not in articles by pundits and journalists in the last six months. Candidates will be added to this list if they are the subject of speculation in no less than two prominent media sources that are less than six months old. This section was last updated October 27, 2009.

Former Governor Gary E. Johnson of New Mexico		October 26, 2009: Steve Terrell of the Santa Fe New Mexican asked Johnson about grassroots groups, like JohnsonForAmerica.com, organizing to promote him for President in 2012, to which Johnson replied that he will be soon setting up a PAC called "Our America," which will raise money and promote libertarian and conservative causes around the country. October 27, 2009: An article published in The National Journal states "Ex-NM Gov. Gary Johnson (R) 'had little to say' 10/26 about a new 'grassroots' website promoting a Johnson White House bid. But Johnson 'said he soon will be launching' a new website of his own as a platform 'to speak out on issues of the day.'" October 27, 2009: Matthew Reichbach of The New Mexico Independent writes: "Libertarian Republicans, many of whom are opposed to the political leadership of the Republican Party, are looking for a politician to be their standard-bearer. This year, after enthusiastically backing Ron Paul in 2008, the Santa Fe New Mexican reports that these groups are looking (again) towards former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson."
Governor Mark Sanford of South Carolina	File:Governor Mark Sanford Jobs and Growth Tour.jpg	September 3, 2009: The Economist wrote that, "the governor has rejected all calls to step down. Instead he is stepping up travel around the state, asking forgiveness for his lapses and announcing that his priority is now to restructure state government. The governor, who was once considered a likely presidential contender in 2012, says he does not intend to run for any other political post once his term expires in January 2011. No one is begging him to change his mind." October 25, 2009: The Sun News wrote of "Sanford's Hits and Misses" and in references to older articles implies that some still believe Mark Sanford could still run for President in 2012. October 26, 2009: The Miami Herald ran an article titled "Calendar shows Sanford fell out of love with his state, too." The article noted that "Sanford's second-term calendar has been dominated by media interviews -- about his opposition to the Obama administration's stimulus spending and his possible 2012 presidential ambitions"
Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana		September 1, 2009: Mike Smith of the Associated Press told the Washington Times that "he's not interested in the "savagery" of a national campaign. Despite such public denials of interest in a presidential bid, Daniels continues to be mentioned in conservative Republican circles as someone to watch in 2012. Many say the Governor is just what the battered party needs, a blend of conservative values, cool demeanor and fiscal discipline." October 18, 2009: Eric Bradner of the Evansville Courier and Press wrote that "predicting a wide-open 2012 Republican presidential primary field, former Vice President Dan Quayle thinks Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels should consider running. "He'd certainly be fully qualified, very competitive," Quayle said during a visit to Indiana's Statehouse last week. "He could possibly be the nominee."" October 25, 2009 6:59 AM: Jack Colwell of the South Bend Tribune wrote that "Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels says he has been on the same path as that traversed by President Barack Obama. No, not that path — not the path to the White House. In an interview in his Statehouse office, Daniels said he never imagined himself as president. Nor, he said, will mention of him by some prominent Republicans at the national level stir his imagination and send him on a path to Iowa and New Hampshire. "Now we know where the bottom of the barrel is," Daniels quipped of suggestions that he could be the Republican presidential nominee in 2012.Daniels also scoffed at the prospect of being selected as a vice presidential nominee, calling it "wildly improbable" and a decision to be made by somebody not even to be known until mid-2012. But if the presidential nominee and party leaders said they needed him on the ticket to help the party and the country, what would he say? "I'd tell them they had rocks in their head," Daniels replied in the self-effacing way he has responded to all the national speculation. Seriously, though, wouldn't it be hard for anybody to say "no" to such a plea? "I suppose," he said. "Anybody. But it's such a long shot."
Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich of Georgia		August 3, 2009: According to NewsMax, "Newt Gingrich’s political group, quietly pulled in $8.1 million in the first half of the year", but they also reported that according to Politico "the former speaker of the House's group has at least 17 employees, however Gingrich’s aides said the group is not a campaign-in-waiting for Gingrich, who makes many short lists of prospective 2012 GOP presidential contenders." October 25, 2009: Patricia Murphy of Politics Daily wrote that "Newt Gingrich, the former House Speaker and perennial big thinker in the Republican party, said this morning that he will likely run for president in 2012 if he and his wife, Callista, assess the field of candidates in 2011 and feel "a requirement as citizens that we run." His comments came during an interview on C-SPAN's Washington Journal this morning. The full exchange and video are below.C-SPAN: "If you were to run, what factors would you take into account? What would lead you to think about running?"GINGRICH: "Callista and I are going to think about this in February 2011. And we are going to reach out to all of our friends around the country. And we'll decide, if there's a requirement as citizens that we run, I suspect we probably will. And if there's not a requirement, if other people have filled the vacuum, I suspect we won't."
Former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania.		September 15, 2009: Ben Smith of Politico wrote that "Rick Santorum affirmed on an RNC conference call -- aimed at attacking Arlen Specter -- that he's considering a run for president in 2012 -- because, he said, the Obama presidency is "injurious to America." "The dynamic has changed," Santorum said. "A lot of folks who might not have thought about running against an incumbent president" are now considering it." October 1, 2009: NewsMax and Associated Press quoted Santorum as saying "he says he hasn't decided whether he'll seek the Republican nomination for president in 2012 but one reason he accepted an invitation to speak in Iowa was because he wants to help guide the party's future. October 24, 2009: The Lincoln Tribune wrote that former U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania Rick Santorum will be visiting North Carolina on Monday, October 26th, 2009 and will finish his visit at a fundraiser for Republicans in North Carolina’s 10th Congressional District at Verdict Ridge Country Club in Denver, North Carolina at 6:00 p.m. With national media already speculating on his interest in running for President in 2012, this event offers North Carolina’s political insiders an early look at a potential candidate for the White House and will showcase a number of who’s who of likely GOP candidates in Lincoln and surrounding counties for the 2010 elections. Santorum recently said that only a sharply conservative Republican message can "stem the tide" of change President Barack Obama is seeking in Washington, and he wants to play a role in that debate.
Former Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska		October 16, 2009: Elyse Siegel of the Huffington Post wrote that "A new poll from Gallup reveals that Sarah Palin's approval rating has plummeted to an all-time low. According to the survey, the former vice presidential candidate maintains a 40% favorability rating, the lowest it has been since she emerged as a national political figure at last year's Republican convention. Over the course of Senator John McCain's (R-Ariz.) presidential campaign Palin's "image suffered," declining from a 53% rating when she debuted as the senator's running mate to a 42% rating by the end of the campaign." October 17, 2009: The Las Vegas Sun quoted the Associated Press as saying that "Sen. John McCain says Sarah Palin remains a formidable force in the Republican Party despite widespread criticisms of his 2008 running mate. McCain says he still has great affection for the former Alaska governor. One of McCain's top advisers from his presidential campaign has said Palin would be a catastrophe for the GOP if she's the party's presidential nominee in 2012. McCain says tensions are to be expected among campaign officials during and after a tough election. The Arizona senator says he's happy to have good Republicans eyeing the 2012 presidential race and says "Sarah is one of them." October 23, 2009: Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post wrote that "Sarah Palin's decision to endorse the Conservative party candidate over the Republican nominee in a special House election in upstate New York is the latest example that the former Alaska governor's allegiance is to her conservative principles rather than the edicts of the party. 'Republicans and conservatives around the country are sending an important message to the Republican establishment in their outstanding grassroots support for Doug Hoffman: no more politics as usual,' wrote Palin on her Facebook page. And, the debate may not end until the 2012 presidential primary fight where, if Palin runs, she could be the choice of the movement conservatives while former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty will likely battle it out for the establishment banner." If nominated and elected, she would be the first woman and first Alaskan to become President of the United States.
Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota		October 7, 2009: Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post wrote that "Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty will headline an Iowa Republican party event this fall, a trip that will mark his visit to the politically crucial state since he has made clear his interest in pursuing a presidential bid in 2012." October 7, 2009: Kevin Diaz and Rachel E. Stassen-Berger of the Star Tribune wrote "Gov. Tim Pawlenty, mulling a White House run in 2012, will head next month to the historical proving ground for most start-up presidential campaigns -- Iowa." October 21, 2009 3:46 PM: Larry Kudlow of CNBC wrote "is the dollar's demise a sign of global declinism for America? Will this decline blow up the bull market economic recovery? Joining me to discuss last night was distinguished Minnesota Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty. Mr. Pawlenty also happens to be a leading GOP presidential contender for 2012."
Former Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts		October 14, 2009: Ramesh Ponnuru of Meridian Magazine wrote "In the early stages of the undeclared race for the Republican presidential nomination, Mitt Romney is the frontrunner. The former governor of Massachusetts has the best-developed national network of supporters of any of the potential candidates. He is the one doing the most party-building across the country; of his potential rivals, only Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty comes close. He is the one to whom other Republicans are most likely to turn for answers on economic policy, and on many issues he is the only one giving them. When the auto companies came to Washington only Romney had a plan (“Detroit needs a turnaround, not a check,” he wrote in the New York Times)." October 20, 2009: Ed Mason of the Boston Herald wrote that "Palin gets trounced by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 52 percent to 37 percent, in a new Rasmussen survey showing how the 2012 GOP presidential contenders stack up in a head-to-head battle." October 21, 2009 10:00 AM: Hillary Chabot of the Boston Herald wrote an article called, "Mitt Romney commits to Mass., not Washington". She noted that "Possible presidential contender Mitt Romney swung through the Bay State last night to give his fellow Republicans a much-needed financial boost, but the GOP power player stayed mum on whether he’ll run again in 2012."
Representative Ron Paul of Texas		July 21, 2009: Justin Miller of The Atlantic complained of him being left out by pollsters and said, "it should include room for U.S. Rep. Ron Paul." October 17, 2009: Andrew Leonard, writing in Salon.com, pondered: "was Ron Paul suggesting that he's ready for another run at the gold ring (U.S. presidency) in 2012?" in analyzing recent public comments made by Paul. October 19, 2009: Katharine Trendacosta of Air America wrote that "It may only be 2009, but Ron Paul is already heading to Iowa. And he's not even the first Republican 2012 hopeful to set his sights on the Hawkeye State." She further opined that Paul seems "to be running under the assumption that the early bird gets the worm." Paul was born on August 20 1935. If nominated and elected, he would be 77 on Inauguration Day 2013, and 81 at the completion of his first term. He would thus be more than 7 years older than any President has been when first inaugurated (a record held by Ronald Reagan, who was just short of 70) and more than 3 years older than any President has been at any inauguration (Reagan was just short of 74 at his second inauguration) .
Former Vice President Dick Cheney of Wyoming		September 1, 2009: Sam Stein of Huffington Post wrote an article called, "Cheney In 2012? Some Key GOPers Aren't Kidding". Stein quoted "longtime pollster and GOP operative" John McLaughlin as saying, "a Cheney nomination "would be a serious consideration because he really has been a defender of policies that the majority of people now think are successful, although right now a lot of people are focused on the economy, if there ever was some sort of foreign policy crisis people will look to Dick Cheney and say he had it right." September 22, 2009: Sam Stein of Huffington Post "Discusses Cheney 2012, Condoleezza Rice's Afghanistan Comments On The Rachel Maddow Show". October 18, 2009: Paul Abrams of The Huffington Post wrote that "Barring illness, Dick Cheney will be the Republican Presidential nominee in 2012." Cheney was born on 30 January 1941 . If nominated and elected, he would be 71 on Inauguration Day 2013, and 75 at the completion of his first term. He would thus be older than any President has been when first inaugurated (a record held by Ronald Reagan, who was just short of 70).
Former Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas		September 2, 2009: Roger Simon of Politico wrote, "it is official: When the Republicans run against Barack Obama in 2012, there will be no more Mr. Nice Guy. Mike Huckabee was that guy last time around. When he ran for the Republican nomination in 2008, he was amiable and affable. He even told jokes." September 19, 2009: FOXNews wrote, "Huckabee Wins 2012 Straw Poll at Values Voters Summit. The summit's poll, which featured nine presidential prospects, found that 28 percent of Christian conservatives said Huckabee would revive the Republican party and traditional conservative principles. When asked if he'd seek the office again in 2012, Huckabee told the Associated Press, "I'm not ruling anything out for the future, but I'm not making any specific plans." October 17, 2009: NewsMax wrote an article titled, "Huckabee Leads 2012 Poll". The article notes "Twenty-nine percent of Republican voters nationwide say former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is their pick to represent the GOP in the 2012 presidential campaign."
Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana		July 22, 2009: Having been "touted as a top prospect for the GOP ticket in 2012" prior to his January speech, Chris Good of The Atlantic called his appearances and speeches over the health care debate, "The Return of Jindal". October 1, 2009: Robert A. George wrote an article, "Bobby Jindal Steps Aside (For Now)" in which he commented: "Jindal puts policy over politics. This just in: Bobby Jindal is NOT running for president in 2012. That may have already been a foregone conclusion given the poor reception that his response to President Obama's pseudo-State of the Union earlier this year. Logistically, it would have looked very difficult, given that Jindal has to run for re-election as governor in 2011." Jindal was born on 10 June 1971 . If nominated and elected, Jindal would be 41 on Inauguration Day 2013. He would thus be more than a year younger than any President has been when first inaugurated (a record held by Theodore Roosevelt, who was 42 when inaugurated after the assassination of his predecessor) and more than two years younger than any President has been when first inaugurated after being elected (a record held by John F Kennedy, who was 43).
Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani of New York		September 1, 2009: Jim Myers of NewsMax said, "the "general consensus" among Republicans around the state is that Rudy won't enter the race [(for Governor of New York)], New York Magazine reports. The chief reason: He has his eye on the White House in 2012. What's clear to them is that Giuliani wants to be a contender...He's intent on mounting a comeback and hasn't lost sight of his larger ambition in Washington." September 14, 2009: Jim Meyers of NewsMax wrote that "GOP officials are readying a push to have him run for the Senate instead next year. Giuliani...would "have an immediate national platform in the Senate," Fredric Dicker of Inside Albany column in the New York Post observed. And since the winner of the 2010 special election would serve only the two years remaining on Clinton's term, Rudy could run for president again in 2012. But if Giuliani ran for governor instead and won, he would likely have to remain in Albany for at least four years. September 21, 2009: David Edwards and Daniel Tencer wrote that FoxNews's Fox & Friends' believes Obama "would be vulnerable to a challenge by former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, and a gubernatorial win by Giuliani would set the Republican up for a White House challenge in 2012. "When you put the name Rudy Giuliani in the mix, you wonder if that's exactly what they're worried about," co-host Gretchen Carlson said. "Because if Giuliani were to run he probably would win at this point, and then that would launch potentially another presidential bid by Rudy Giuliani."
Former Governor Jeb Bush of Florida		May 12, 2009: Former Vice President Dick Cheney said that he would "probably support him for president." June 26, 2009: John Aloysius Farrell of the U.S. News & World Report commented that recent "self-destructions" by other potential candidates made a Bush run "not impossible." September 3, 2009: Dan Weil of NewsMax said, "Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush says he's not running for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012 — at least for now. Weil went to quote Bush as saying, "I'm focused on my own private life and trying to help others continue their public service," Bush said. "It's a secondary role, not a primary role, and it'll probably remain that way."
Representative Mike Pence of Indiana		June 24, 2009: Domenico Montanaro of MSNBC wrote that Pence has "made the cable rounds, but it remains to be seen if average voters could pick him out of a lineup." July 13, 2009: Congressional Quarterly reported that Pence had scheduled "a trip to Iowa starting July 25.". Pence, however, told The Des Moines Register. July 24, 2009: "I have no plans to run for president. I'm entirely focused on the people of eastern Indiana and electing as many Republicans to the U.S. House as we can. The future will take care of itself."
Governor Haley Barbour of Mississippi		June 9, 2009: reported that the New Hampshire Republican State Committee had sent out an invitation to an "evening with Haley Barbour". An unnamed "GOP operative" was quoted as saying "When you start going to Iowa and New Hampshire, the writing's on the wall." June 23, 2009: Barbour said that he would "probably never" make a decision on running for president. June 25, 2009: Barbour visited Iowa again sidestepping discussion about his presidential bid until after the 2010 elections. “If after that, it seems like a reasonable thing, I will consider it... I have no intention to run for president. But I’ve been around long enough to ‘say never say never’”.

Hypothetical polling

• Nationwide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2012
• Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2012
• Statewide Opinion polling for the Republican Party (United States) presidential primaries, 2012
• Nationwide opinion polling for the 2012 Republican Presidential primaries