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*[[Muqran bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud|Muqran bin Abdul Aziz]] Director General of Saudi Intelligence
*[[Muqran bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud|Muqran bin Abdul Aziz]] Director General of Saudi Intelligence


==Succession after Abdullah==
==The Likely Next Successor==
By tradition, kingship has passed between brothers of one generation of the Al Saud family before descending to the next. The trouble is that half of the 35-plus sons of the country’s founder, [[Abdul Aziz ibn Saud|King Abdul-Aziz]], who died in 1953, are still alive. Some are neither capable nor ambitious enough to be king.<ref>http://www.economist.com/node/13414090?story_id=13414090</ref>
By tradition, kingship has passed between brothers of one generation of the Al Saud family before descending to the next. The trouble is that half of the 35-plus sons of the country’s founder, [[Abdul Aziz ibn Saud|King Abdul-Aziz]], who died in 1953, are still alive. Some are neither capable nor ambitious enough to be king.<ref name="economist">http://www.economist.com/node/13414090?story_id=13414090</ref>


Despite an outward facade of stability, the House of Saud is in turmoil over succession. King Abdullah is 86 this year, but his half brother and designated successor, [[Crown Prince Sultan]], is 82. The apparent next in line is Sultan's full brother, [[Prince Nayef]], 77, the hard-line minister of interior.<ref>http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=130747807</ref> It is increasingly apparent that Abdullah and the 19 other surviving sons of King Abdul Aziz, the founder of "modern" Saudi Arabia who died in 1953, are either too old or do not have the experience or acumen to manage the affairs of the kingdom for much longer. Succession has to go to their sons, the grandsons of Abdul Aziz.<ref>http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=130747807</ref>
Despite an outward facade of stability, the House of Saud is in turmoil over succession. King Abdullah is 86 this year, but his half brother and designated successor, [[Crown Prince Sultan]], is 82. The apparent next in line is Sultan's full brother, [[Prince Nayef]], 77, the hard-line minister of interior.<ref name="NPR">http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=130747807</ref> It is increasingly apparent that Abdullah and the 19 other surviving sons of King Abdul Aziz, the founder of "modern" Saudi Arabia who died in 1953, are either too old or do not have the experience or acumen to manage the affairs of the kingdom for much longer. Succession has to go to their sons, the grandsons of Abdul Aziz.<ref name="NPR" />


[[Prince Nayef]] is expected to be made crown prince upon Sultan's death or even before.<ref>http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=130747807</ref> Prince Nayef is the Second Deputy Premier. In the past, second deputy prime ministers have been considered second in line to the throne.<ref>http://www.economist.com/node/13414090?story_id=13414090</ref> King Abdullah had left the post vacant since assuming the throne in 2005. In this light, Prince Nayef’s sudden appointment recently may amount to more than just finding someone to keep house while the king travels to the G20 meeting in London.<ref>http://www.economist.com/node/13414090?story_id=13414090</ref> At the cabinet meeting on November 8, Prince Nayef bin Abdul Aziz, chaired the cabinet meeting with no explanation why the king was absent.<ref>[http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hK7wm4CBGfjgDhw4dj862YlpXflg?docId=CNG.cb80a1df49e6851ae06101076385e499.4d1 Saudi king suffers herniated disc]</ref> During the same month, King Abdullah transferred his duties as Commander of the Saudi National Guard to his son Prince [[Mutaib bin Abdullah|Mutaib]]. King Abdullah had headed the force since 1962. Abdullah is credited with building up the once largely ceremonial unit into a modern 260,000-strong force that is a counterweight to the army. The Guard, which was Abdullah's original power base, protects the royal family. This was suggested as an apparent sign that the elderly monarch is beginning to lessen some of his duties.<ref>[http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/17/AR2010111704919.html Saudi king transfers National Guard duties to son]</ref>
[[Prince Nayef]] is expected to be made crown prince upon Sultan's death or even before.<ref name="NPR" /> Prince Nayef is the Second Deputy Premier. In the past, second deputy prime ministers have been considered second in line to the throne.<ref name="economist" /> King Abdullah had left the post vacant since assuming the throne in 2005. In this light, Prince Nayef’s sudden appointment recently may amount to more than just finding someone to keep house while the king travels to the G20 meeting in London.<ref name="economist" /> At the cabinet meeting on November 8, Prince Nayef bin Abdul Aziz, chaired the cabinet meeting with no explanation why the king was absent.<ref>[http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hK7wm4CBGfjgDhw4dj862YlpXflg?docId=CNG.cb80a1df49e6851ae06101076385e499.4d1 Saudi king suffers herniated disc]</ref> During the same month, King Abdullah transferred his duties as Commander of the Saudi National Guard to his son Prince [[Mutaib bin Abdullah|Mutaib]]. King Abdullah had headed the force since 1962. Abdullah is credited with building up the once largely ceremonial unit into a modern 260,000-strong force that is a counterweight to the army. The Guard, which was Abdullah's original power base, protects the royal family. This was suggested as an apparent sign that the elderly monarch is beginning to lessen some of his duties.<ref>[http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/17/AR2010111704919.html Saudi king transfers National Guard duties to son]</ref>


Since Fahd's ascent to the throne in 1982, the [[Sudairi Seven]] have become the most powerful alliance within the ruling Saudi royal family. On August 1, 2005 it was announced that King Fahd bin Abdul Aziz had died, reducing the group to the Sudairi Six.
Since Fahd's ascent to the throne in 1982, the [[Sudairi Seven]] have become the most powerful alliance within the ruling Saudi royal family. On August 1, 2005 it was announced that King Fahd bin Abdul Aziz had died, reducing the group to the Sudairi Six.

Revision as of 21:55, 24 November 2010

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The order of succession to the throne of Saudi Arabia is determined by, and within, the House of Saud. It follows very closely agnatic seniority, but a prince may be surpassed, or another elevated.

Current King Abdullah has appointed his half-brother Sultan as the Crown Prince of the kingdom. At least three brothers (Bandar, Musa'id, Mishaal) are older than Sultan, but these have either stepped aside or have been sidelined for health reasons, by family consensus, or by their unwillingness to participate in governing.

Selection

In October 2006, King Abdullah announced the creation of the Bay'ah Council (Allegiance Council) to be made up of the sons and senior grandsons of the Kingdom's founder. The body that is composed of made up of Ibn Saud's sons, the eldest sons of the brothers who have died since Ibn Saud's death, as well as the sons of the current king and crown prince. The Council is lead by Prince Mishaal.

The Council's function is to ensure the smooth transition of power in the event of incapacitation or death of both the King and the Crown Prince, and the selection of an heir. This, along with an earlier decree by King Fahd, also has opened the possibility of considering Abdul Aziz Ibn Saud's grandsons as viable candidates. Beyond age, the criteria appear to include:

  • Support within the Al Saud
  • Tenure in government
  • Tribal affiliations and origins of a candidate's mother
  • Religious persona
  • Acceptance by the Ulema
  • Support by the merchant community
  • Popularity among the general Saudi citizenry.

The Council votes by a secret ballot to choose future kings and crown princes. The reform was finally implemented in October 2007.[1] The council's mandate will not start until after the reigns of Abdullah and Sultan are over. It is not clear, however, what would happen if Sultan were to die before the end of Abdullah's reign, leaving a question as to whether the council would vote for a new crown prince or whether Nayef would automatically fill that position. [2] This suggests a membership of around thirty-five (at least one brother did not produce a male heir).[3]

Candidates

The following surviving sons of Abdul Aziz Ibn Saud, ranked by age, are considered candidates following Crown Prince Sultan: [4] [5]

Grandsons who appear to have the necessary support and experience to be considered candidates include:

Sons of Abdul-Aziz who do not seem to have the necessary experience, support, lineage, health, or ambition but are nonetheless influential in the selection process:

Succession after Abdullah

By tradition, kingship has passed between brothers of one generation of the Al Saud family before descending to the next. The trouble is that half of the 35-plus sons of the country’s founder, King Abdul-Aziz, who died in 1953, are still alive. Some are neither capable nor ambitious enough to be king.[6]

Despite an outward facade of stability, the House of Saud is in turmoil over succession. King Abdullah is 86 this year, but his half brother and designated successor, Crown Prince Sultan, is 82. The apparent next in line is Sultan's full brother, Prince Nayef, 77, the hard-line minister of interior.[7] It is increasingly apparent that Abdullah and the 19 other surviving sons of King Abdul Aziz, the founder of "modern" Saudi Arabia who died in 1953, are either too old or do not have the experience or acumen to manage the affairs of the kingdom for much longer. Succession has to go to their sons, the grandsons of Abdul Aziz.[7]

Prince Nayef is expected to be made crown prince upon Sultan's death or even before.[7] Prince Nayef is the Second Deputy Premier. In the past, second deputy prime ministers have been considered second in line to the throne.[6] King Abdullah had left the post vacant since assuming the throne in 2005. In this light, Prince Nayef’s sudden appointment recently may amount to more than just finding someone to keep house while the king travels to the G20 meeting in London.[6] At the cabinet meeting on November 8, Prince Nayef bin Abdul Aziz, chaired the cabinet meeting with no explanation why the king was absent.[8] During the same month, King Abdullah transferred his duties as Commander of the Saudi National Guard to his son Prince Mutaib. King Abdullah had headed the force since 1962. Abdullah is credited with building up the once largely ceremonial unit into a modern 260,000-strong force that is a counterweight to the army. The Guard, which was Abdullah's original power base, protects the royal family. This was suggested as an apparent sign that the elderly monarch is beginning to lessen some of his duties.[9]

Since Fahd's ascent to the throne in 1982, the Sudairi Seven have become the most powerful alliance within the ruling Saudi royal family. On August 1, 2005 it was announced that King Fahd bin Abdul Aziz had died, reducing the group to the Sudairi Six.

References

  1. ^ http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7035991.stm
  2. ^ http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101121/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_saudi_king_hospitalized;_ylt=AluqiTkBwGFdWRZE3_3oGf8LewgF;_ylu=X3oDMTMxc29laW51BGFzc2V0A2FwLzIwMTAxMTIxL21sX3NhdWRpX2tpbmdfaG9zcGl0YWxpemVkBHBvcwMxOARzZWMDeW5fcGFnaW5hdGVfc3VtbWFyeV9saXN0BHNsawNhZ2Vkc2F1ZGlydWw-
  3. ^ http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=2526
  4. ^ http://www.arabianbusiness.com/550822-saudi-prince-nayaf-named-second-deputy-premier
  5. ^ http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6AL2TJ20101122
  6. ^ a b c http://www.economist.com/node/13414090?story_id=13414090
  7. ^ a b c http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=130747807
  8. ^ Saudi king suffers herniated disc
  9. ^ Saudi king transfers National Guard duties to son
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