2008 United States Senate elections: Difference between revisions
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===Notable Democratic incumbent races=== |
===Notable Democratic incumbent races=== |
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*[[Arkansas]] - [[Mark Pryor]] is a first term Democrat in |
*[[Arkansas]] - [[Mark Pryor]] is a first term Democrat in a southern state relatively friendly to Democrats. Despite this, the GOP will try to target him. However, Pryor is one of the most popular public officials in the state and has a relatively moderate voting record. |
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* [[Louisiana]] - Incumbent Democrat [[Mary Landrieu]] won a close race in 2002 against Republican Suzanne Halk Terrell. She could be vulnerable in 2008, especially since her popularity has dropped after [[Hurricane Katrina]]. In September, Landrieu, upset at the White House response to Katrina, even threatened to "punch" President Bush. An October Survey USA poll puts her approval rating at 48%. Republicans are on the upswing in Louisiana, having captured the other Senate seat in 2004 for the first time in over a century. Louisiana has ample potential Republican candidates, so this could be a race to watch, but Louisiana's "open primary" system (where all the candidates run against each other regardless of party affiliation) could result in Landrieu winning over a split GOP field. |
* [[Louisiana]] - Incumbent Democrat [[Mary Landrieu]] won a close race in 2002 against Republican Suzanne Halk Terrell. She could be vulnerable in 2008, especially since her popularity has dropped after [[Hurricane Katrina]]. In September, Landrieu, upset at the White House response to Katrina, even threatened to "punch" President Bush. An October Survey USA poll puts her approval rating at 48%. Republicans are on the upswing in Louisiana, having captured the other Senate seat in 2004 for the first time in over a century. Louisiana has ample potential Republican candidates, so this could be a race to watch, but Louisiana's "open primary" system (where all the candidates run against each other regardless of party affiliation) could result in Landrieu winning over a split GOP field. |
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*[[New Jersey]] - One poll shows incumbent [[Frank Lautenberg]] among the most unpopular Senators [http://surveyusa.com/100USSenatorApprovalRatings061305.htm], which means that this seat is vulnerable for the GOP. Lautenberg announced his intention to run for reelection. [http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/jersey/index.ssf?/base/news-2/114041382942860.xml&coll=1]It is unknown if he will face primary opposition. |
*[[New Jersey]] - One poll shows incumbent [[Frank Lautenberg]] among the most unpopular Senators [http://surveyusa.com/100USSenatorApprovalRatings061305.htm], which means that this seat is vulnerable for the GOP. Lautenberg announced his intention to run for reelection. [http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/jersey/index.ssf?/base/news-2/114041382942860.xml&coll=1]It is unknown if he will face primary opposition. |
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Revision as of 02:13, 24 February 2006
Template:Future election Elections for the United States Senate will be held on November 4, 2008, with 33 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested. Since Senators are elected for six-year terms, those elected will serve from January 3, 2009 until January 3, 2015. Those Senators who were elected in 2002 will be seeking re-election (or retiring) in 2008.
The U.S. presidential election, 2008, U.S. gubernatorial elections, 2008 and U.S. House election, 2008, will occur on the same date, as well as many state and local elections.
Major parties
The composition of the Senate going into the 2008 election will depend on the results of the 2006 election, but, if all Senators not up for reelection in 2006 keep their seats, the Senate will be composed of at least 40 Republicans and at least 27 Democrats. Of the seats up for election, 21 are held by Republicans and 12 by Democrats.
There may be some additional changes of incumbent to the list below if Senators die or resign. If Senators in other classes die or resign between 2006 and 2008, there may be additional special elections in 2008. The dates between which the death or resignation of a Senator would lead a special election in 2008 vary from state to state.
Races to watch
Retiring Senators
- Maine - Though incumbent Republican Susan Collins is very popular in this Democratic-leaning state, she promised in 1996 and 2002 not to run for a third term. Her retirement would thrust this into the toss-up column, and would give Democrats high hopes of a pickup in the Pine Tree State.
Possible retiring Senators
- Alaska - Incumbent 83 year old Republican Ted Stevens may retire.
- Colorado - Incumbent Republican Wayne Allard may retire, and popular Democratic Congressman Mark Udall anounced he will seek the seat either way.
- Delaware - Incumbent Democrat Joe Biden is safe unless he retires to run for the Presidency.
- Massachusetts - Incumbent Democrat John Kerry would easily be reelected unless he runs for President again, in which case this seat will become open.
- Nebraska - Incumbent Republican Chuck Hagel is expected to run for President, either as a Republican or an Independent.
- New Mexico - Incumbent Republican Pete Domenici has not raised much money recently, suggesting he might retire.
- New Jersey - One poll shows incumbent Frank Lautenberg among the most unpopular Senators [1], which means that this seat is vulnerable for the GOP. However, Lautenberg is likely to retire in '08 as he was barely coaxed out of retirement to run in 2002. Many Democrats could make a run for the seat, as New Jersey is a Democratic-leaning state, especially Congressmen Andrews, Pallone, and Holt, who had expressed interest in being appointed to Corzine's seat..
- North Carolina - There has been rumors that incumbent Liddy Dole would retire from the Senate and run for Governor. If she runs for reelection, she is safe unless she faces Governor Mike Easley or 2004 vice presidential candidate John Edwards.
- Virginia - In the 1996 Senate election, John Warner was in a close election (53-47) with a then nearly unknown, Mark Warner (No relation). Since his defeat, Mark Warner was elected Governor of Virginia, and is widely popular. In 2008, if Mark Warner runs again, this election could get interesting. The old John Warner could also retire and a free-for-all would likely ensue. However many think that Mark Warner will run for President in 2008, leaving Virginia a question mark for both parties.
Notable Democratic incumbent races
- Arkansas - Mark Pryor is a first term Democrat in a southern state relatively friendly to Democrats. Despite this, the GOP will try to target him. However, Pryor is one of the most popular public officials in the state and has a relatively moderate voting record.
- Louisiana - Incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu won a close race in 2002 against Republican Suzanne Halk Terrell. She could be vulnerable in 2008, especially since her popularity has dropped after Hurricane Katrina. In September, Landrieu, upset at the White House response to Katrina, even threatened to "punch" President Bush. An October Survey USA poll puts her approval rating at 48%. Republicans are on the upswing in Louisiana, having captured the other Senate seat in 2004 for the first time in over a century. Louisiana has ample potential Republican candidates, so this could be a race to watch, but Louisiana's "open primary" system (where all the candidates run against each other regardless of party affiliation) could result in Landrieu winning over a split GOP field.
- New Jersey - One poll shows incumbent Frank Lautenberg among the most unpopular Senators [2], which means that this seat is vulnerable for the GOP. Lautenberg announced his intention to run for reelection. [3]It is unknown if he will face primary opposition.
- South Dakota - Tim Johnson will likely be a top GOP target in 2008, considering his super close victory in 2002 over John Thune. However, Thune is widely considered the strongest Republican in South Dakota, and is now a Senator, having narrowly ousted Tom Daschle in 2004. Therefore, Johnson cannot face Thune again in 2008, and that makes him safer. Although should Governor Mike Rounds step in to challenge Johnson, this could be a top race. It is possible Johnson may be a recipient of a boost since the Ellsworth military base was saved.
Notable Republican incumbent races
- Colorado - The incumbent, Wayne Allard, is the target of many Democrats. Rep. Mark Udall passed on the 2006 governor race to take on Allard in 2008. Allard has had two close elections, both resulting in a weak 51% win for him. And with Colorado Democrats on the upswing, he is unlikely to get a free pass in 2008. Udall is said to be a formidable candidate as he comes from the Udall political family.
- Georgia - Georgia Democrats will no doubt give Saxby Chambliss a run for his money, considering the 2002 campaign in which he questioned the patriotism of then-incumbent Max Cleland, who lost both legs and an arm in the Vietnam War, on the grounds he was anti-military and opposed actions by President Bush during the early stages of the War on Terrorism. Though Georgia has been getting more and more Republican since 1992, there are still some popular and potentially strong Democrats in the state, like Secretary of State Cathy Cox and U.S. Rep. Jim Marshall.
- Minnesota - Incumbent Republican Norm Coleman won a tight contest in 2002 against former Vice-President Walter Mondale after the incumbent Senator, Paul Wellstone, died in a plane crash. Minnesota, which has been getting less Democratic for a decade, showed signs of returning to its roots in 2004 by giving Democrats major gains in the state legislature and going to John Kerry by a larger margin than it went to Al Gore by in 2000. Coleman is already opposed by talk radio host Al Franken and is likely to face stiff opposition.
- New Hampshire - Incumbent Republican John Sununu is among the most unpopular Senators [4], and represents an increasingly Democratic state. He may face a number of Democratic heavyweights in the state, such as former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (his 2002 opponent) or Gov. John Lynch.
- Texas - Incumbent Republican John Cornyn is among the ten least popular Senators [5], but does maintain a +15% net approval rating, is the junior Senator (in a state where the senior Senator has a +39% net approval rating), and is likely to keep his seat simply due to the weakness of the Democratic Party and the relative strength of the Republican Party in Texas. He is a member of the powerful Senate Judiciary Committee, and has been outspoken on demanding up-or-down votes on judicial nominees; his seat on the Committee gives him an edge over potential candidates.