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The next '''Danish parliamentary election''' will take place no later than 12 November 2011 (four years after the [[Danish parliamentary election, 2007|previous election]]) in order to elect the 179 members of the [[Denmark|Danish]] [[Folketing|parliament]]. 175 members will be elected in Denmark, two in the [[Faroe Islands]] and two in [[Greenland]].
The next '''Danish parliamentary election''' will take place no later than 12 November 2011 (four years after the [[Danish parliamentary election, 2007|previous election]]) in order to elect the 179 members of the [[Denmark|Danish]] [[Folketing|parliament]]. 175 members will be elected in Denmark, two in the [[Faroe Islands]] and two in [[Greenland]].


The winner of the previous election, prime minister [[Anders Fogh Rasmussen]] resigned on April 5, 2009 to become [[Secretary General of NATO]] in August. Polls indicated a preference for early elections over simply having finance minister [[Lars Løkke Rasmussen]] take over as PM, and that [[Social Democrats (Denmark)|Social Democrats]] [[Helle Thorning-Schmidt]] would be preferred as PM over Lars Løkke Rasmussen.<ref>http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/32900/danes_want_election_if_rasmussen_steps_down</ref> However, as [[Pia Kjærsgaard]], the leader of the [[Danish People's Party]], had stated that the Danish People's Party would continue to support the government, a new election was not necessary for Løkke Rasmussen to form a government from the existing parliament.<ref>[http://politiken.dk/politik/article650312.ece ''DF siger god for Løkke som statsminister''] (2009-02-16) {{da icon}}. [[Politiken]].</ref>
The winner of the previous election, prime minister [[Anders Fogh Rasmussen]] resigned on April 5, 2009 to become [[Secretary General of NATO]] in August. Polls indicated a preference for early elections over simply having the minister of finance, [[Lars Løkke Rasmussen]], take over as PM, and that [[Social Democrats (Denmark)|Social Democrats]] [[Helle Thorning-Schmidt]] would be preferred as PM over Lars Løkke Rasmussen.<ref>http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/32900/danes_want_election_if_rasmussen_steps_down</ref> However, as [[Pia Kjærsgaard]], the leader of the [[Danish People's Party]], had stated that the Danish People's Party would continue to support the government, a new election was not necessary for Løkke Rasmussen to form a government from the existing parliament.<ref>[http://politiken.dk/politik/article650312.ece ''DF siger god for Løkke som statsminister''] (2009-02-16) {{da icon}}. [[Politiken]].</ref>


If Lars Løkke Rasmussen succeeds in winning re-election he will hold a fourth consecutive term for the Liberal-Conservative government. That will be the longest time in Danish history that a non-social democratic government has been in office. If Helle Thorning-Schmidt wins the election, a period of nearly 11 years in opposition for the [[Social Democrats (Denmark)|Social Democrats]] will end. Furthermore, Thorning-Schmidt would become the first female [[Prime Minister of Denmark]].
If Lars Løkke Rasmussen succeeds in winning re-election he will hold a fourth consecutive term for the Liberal-Conservative government. That will be the longest time in Danish history that a non-social democratic government has been in office. If Helle Thorning-Schmidt wins the election, a period of nearly 11 years in opposition for the [[Social Democrats (Denmark)|Social Democrats]] will end. Furthermore, Thorning-Schmidt would become the first female [[Prime Minister of Denmark]].

Revision as of 13:31, 24 April 2011

Danish parliamentary election, 2011
← 2007 No later than 12 November 2011
All 179 seats to the Folketing
 
Leader Lars Løkke Rasmussen Helle Thorning-Schmidt
Party Venstre Social Democrats
Last election 46 seats, 26.2% 45 seats, 25.5%
Incumbent Prime Minister

Lars Løkke Rasmussen
Venstre



The next Danish parliamentary election will take place no later than 12 November 2011 (four years after the previous election) in order to elect the 179 members of the Danish parliament. 175 members will be elected in Denmark, two in the Faroe Islands and two in Greenland.

The winner of the previous election, prime minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen resigned on April 5, 2009 to become Secretary General of NATO in August. Polls indicated a preference for early elections over simply having the minister of finance, Lars Løkke Rasmussen, take over as PM, and that Social Democrats Helle Thorning-Schmidt would be preferred as PM over Lars Løkke Rasmussen.[1] However, as Pia Kjærsgaard, the leader of the Danish People's Party, had stated that the Danish People's Party would continue to support the government, a new election was not necessary for Løkke Rasmussen to form a government from the existing parliament.[2]

If Lars Løkke Rasmussen succeeds in winning re-election he will hold a fourth consecutive term for the Liberal-Conservative government. That will be the longest time in Danish history that a non-social democratic government has been in office. If Helle Thorning-Schmidt wins the election, a period of nearly 11 years in opposition for the Social Democrats will end. Furthermore, Thorning-Schmidt would become the first female Prime Minister of Denmark.

Date of the election

According to the Danish Constitution, the election must take place no later than 12 November 2011 since the last Danish election was held on November 13 2007. The Government is elected to a four-year term.

Since Løkke Rasmussen took the office of Prime Minister in april 2009, speculation as to the date of the election has been present in the Danish media and among political commentators.

MPs not seeking re-election

The following have as of March 2010 announced that they do not seek re-election, and will thus withdraw from the Danish Parliament.[3]

Pia Christmas-Møller (no party) is not up for election in any constituencies, and will thus also withdraw.

Already retired

Coalitions in Danish politics

The incumbent Prime Minister, Lars Løkke Rasmussen, currently leads a centre-right government consisting of the Liberal Party (Venstre) and the Conservative People's Party. This coalition has the parliamentary support from the national conservative Danish People's Party and the sole MP from the Christian Democrats, Per Ørum-Jørgensen. Together these four parties hold a majority of 90 seats in the Folketing.[4]

Since the 2007 elections the Liberal Alliance have gained momentum in opinion polls and since early 2010, the governing coalition have not been able to gather a majority in the polls without the support of the Alliance. The continuing rise in the polls is to an extent the result of the internal crisis in the Conservative People's Party over the leadership of party leader Lene Espersen[5] and the continuing debate over a lack of "true" liberal/conservative ideology in the proposals made by the government.[6]

On January 13, 2011 the continuing turmoil within the Conservative group in the Folketing caused Lene Espersen to resign as political leader of the party and focus on her role as Minister of Foreign Affairs.[7] A leadership election between Brian Mikkelsen, current Minister of Economic and Business Affairs and Lars Barfoed, current Justice Minister was widely expected.[8] But on January 14 the Conservative group in the Folketing unanimously elected Lars Barfoed as their new political leader. He is expected to be formally elected as chairman of the party at a party convention within a few weeks.[9]

The Social Democrats under the leadership of Helle Thorning-Schmidt have enjoyed continuing majorities in opinion polls since late 2009 and hopes to form a centre-left government coalition consisting of the Socialist People's Party and the Social Liberal Party with parliamentary support from the small Red-Green Alliance.[10][11]

Both Margrethe Vestager (Social Liberal Party) and Villy Søvndal (Socialist People's Party) have pledged their support to Thorning-Schmidt after a potential election victory.[12]

However there has been considerable debate about the future politics of this coalition, mainly because the Social Liberal Party demands a more progressive and reform-friendly economic agenda. Also on immigration issues there are political differences between the three coalition parties. This has led some observers to believe that the Social Liberal Party will not join a government coalition but instead opt to be a part of the parliamentary support of a new, centre-left government.[13]

Polls

Graphical summary

Summary of poll results given below, up to and including 24 February 2011. For simplicity, only the eight largest political parties currently in parliament are shown. Lines give a smoothed estimate of the mean derived from a Loess smoother. Figures to the right show the estimate from the smoothing line at the date of the most recent poll, with 95% confidence interval. Parties are labelled with abbreviated forms of their Danish names: Venstre (Venstre), Social Democrats (Soc.Dem.), Danish People's Party (DF), Socialist People's Party (SF), Conservative People's Party (Kons.), Social Liberal Party (Rad.V.), Liberal Alliance (Lib.A.), Red-Green Alliance (Enhed.)

Individual polls

Polling Firm Date Source Venstre (V) Social Democrats (A) Danish People's Party (O) Socialist People's Party (F) Conservative People's Party (C) Social Liberal Party (B) Liberal Alliance (I) Red-Green Alliance (Ø) Christian Democrats (K) Government Opposition
2007 Election 2007-11-13 26.2% 25.5% 13.9% 13.0% 10.4% 5.1% 2.8% 2.2% 0.9% 53.3% 46.7%
Megafon 2010-02 [14] 22.2% 25.8% 15.2% 16.8% 11.4% 4.4% 0.6% 3.1% 0.5% 49.4% 50.1%
Capacent 2010-02-26 [15] 22.1% 26.3% 14.5% 18.1% 11.6% 4.4% 0.7% 2.0% 0.3% 48.9% 50.8%
Megafon 2010-03 [16] 22.2% 25.8% 13.0% 18.1% 11.2% 5.1% 1.2% 2.5% 0.6% 47.6% 51.5%
Capacent 2010-03-31 [17] 23.7% 26.7% 13.8% 17.2% 10.9% 4.6% 0.5% 2.2% 0.3% 48.9% 50.7%
Megafon 2010-08-06 [18] 22.7% 25.4% 13.8% 16.5% 6.0% 5.4% 5.8% 2.9% 0.7% 48.3% 50.2%
Megafon 2010-08-26 [19] 24.2% 25.8% 13.4% 17.4% 6.8% 5.4% 3.8% 3.0% 0.2% 48.2% 51.6%
Megafon 2010-11-25 [20] 19.8% 26.7% 13.7% 13.8% 6.1% 6.2% 7.4% 4.9% 1.3% 47.0% 51.6%
Megafon 2010-12-16 [21] 19.4% 27.2% 14.9% 11.8% 5.6% 6.3% 8.7% 5.2% 0.9% 48.6% 50.5%
Megafon 2011-01-06 [21] 24.3% 25.5% 13.1% 11.3% 5.6% 7.5% 7.8% 4.6% 0.4% 50.8% 48.9
Greens 2011-01-07 [22] 21.6% 29.2% 14.6% 13.0% 4.5% 7.5% 5.8% 3.2% 0.4% 46.5% 52.9%
Gallup 2011-01-07 [23] 24.3% 31.3% 12.2% 12.7% 6.0% 5.5% 4.3% 2.9% 0.8% 46.8% 52.4%
YouGov Zapera 2011-01-12 [24] 21.8% 26.4% 13.5% 15.2% 4.4% 6.2% 8.3% 4.0% 0.3% 48.0% 51.8%
Capacent 2011-01-12 [25] 23.1% 29.9% 13.0% 13.0% 5.9% 5.5% 4.3% 4.8% 0.3% 46.3% 53.2%
Megafon 2011-01-13 [21] 22.7% 26.6% 13.8% 11.6% 5.0% 7.7% 7.7% 4.5% 0.4% 49.2% 50.4%
Gallup 2011-01-14 [21] 24.6% 28.6% 13.0% 14.9% 5.7% 5.8% 4.0% 2.9% 0.5% 47.3% 52.2%
Voxmeter 2011-01-16 [21] 22.9% 31.1% 11.8% 12.3% 5.7% 5.6% 6.3% 3.7% 0.0% 46.6% 52.7%
Greens 2011-01-21 [26] 22.6% 29.5% 11.6% 14.2% 6.5% 6.5% 5.4% 2.7% 0.4% 46.1% 52.9%
Gallup 2011-01-24 [21] 23.9% 27.6% 14.0% 13.8% 4.9% 7.3% 4.7% 2.7% 0.8% 47.5% 51.4%
Megafon 2011-01-28 [21] 21.2% 28.7% 14.3% 13.0% 5.6% 6.4% 6.6% 4.1% 0.3% 47.6% 52.2%
Greens 2011-02-04 [27] 21.3% 31.2% 12.3% 15.6% 5.4% 5.6% 4.4% 3.3% 0.6% 43.4% 55.7%
Megafon 2011-02-24 [21] 19.3% 28.8% 13.9% 15.2% 5.4% 6.3% 6.8% 3.7% 0.7% 45.4% 54.0%

References

  1. ^ http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/32900/danes_want_election_if_rasmussen_steps_down
  2. ^ DF siger god for Løkke som statsminister (2009-02-16) Template:Da icon. Politiken.
  3. ^ De bliver valgt ved folketingsvalg nu Altinget.dk 6. marts 2003
  4. ^ http://politiken.dk/politik/ECE1030119/kristendemokraterne-vil-med-i-finansloven/
  5. ^ http://www.berlingske.dk/politik/lene-espersens-krise-smitter-af-paa-loekke
  6. ^ http://www.berlingske.dk/politik/liberal-alliance-redder-regeringen
  7. ^ http://www.berlingske.dk/politik/det-er-den-rigtige-beslutning
  8. ^ http://www.berlingske.dk/politik/baade-barfoed-og-brian-vil-afloese-lene
  9. ^ http://www.berlingske.dk/politik/barfoed-ny-k-leder
  10. ^ http://www.bt.dk/politik/roed-dominans
  11. ^ http://www.dr.dk/Nyheder/Politik/2010/12/02/232622.htm
  12. ^ http://borsen.dk/nyheder/politik/artikel/1/143035/vestager_peger_paa_helle_thorning.html
  13. ^ http://www.dr.dk/Nyheder/Politik/2010/08/19/150632.htm?rss=true
  14. ^ http://politiken.dk/politik/article933210.ece
  15. ^ http://www.dr.dk/Nyheder/Politik/2010/04/02/083616.htm
  16. ^ http://politiken.dk/politik/article933210.ece
  17. ^ http://www.dr.dk/Nyheder/Politik/2010/04/02/083616.htm
  18. ^ http://politiken.dk/politik/ECE1030262/hed-sommer-giver-comeback-til-loekke/
  19. ^ http://politiken.dk/politik/ECE1045073/ny-meningsmaaling-blaa-bloks-fremgang-er-stagneret/
  20. ^ http://politiken.dk/politik/ECE1125953/loekke-staar-til-historisk-venstre-nederlag/
  21. ^ a b c d e f g h http://politiken.dk/politik/meningsmaaleren/
  22. ^ http://borsen.dk/nyheder/politik/artikel/1/198818/konservative_i_historisk_nedsmeltning.html
  23. ^ http://www.berlingske.dk/politik/se-gallup-maalingen-her
  24. ^ http://www.metroxpress.dk/dk/article/2011/01/11/21/5627-90/index.xml
  25. ^ http://www.dr.dk/Nyheder/Politik/2011/01/12/135542.htm
  26. ^ http://borsen.dk/nyheder/politik/artikel/1/199773/vaelgerne_straffer_pia_kjaersgaard.html
  27. ^ http://borsen.dk/nyheder/politik/artikel/1/200751/thorning_sender_blaa_blok_til_taelling.html
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