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|'''April 29, 2011''': ''[[The Hill (newspaper)|The Hill]]'': "New York Daily News columnist S.E. Cupp has a name to add to the new people: guitar hero and Michigan Rep. Thaddeus McCotter, author of a new book, ''Seize Freedom! American Truths and Renewal in a Chaotic Age''. She says he could become the next president of the United States." <ref>http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/lawmaker-news/158349-donald-trump-thaddeus-mccotter-and-the-gop-establishment</ref>
|'''April 29, 2011''': ''[[The Hill (newspaper)|The Hill]]'': "New York Daily News columnist S.E. Cupp has a name to add to the new people: guitar hero and Michigan Rep. Thaddeus McCotter, author of a new book, ''Seize Freedom! American Truths and Renewal in a Chaotic Age''. She says he could become the next president of the United States." <ref>http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/lawmaker-news/158349-donald-trump-thaddeus-mccotter-and-the-gop-establishment</ref>


'''April 29, 2011''': [[Rasmussen Reports]] included Thad McCotter's name as a possible 2012 presidential contender in a public opinion pooll. <ref>http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/bachman_leads_gop_dark_horse_pack</ref>
'''April 29, 2011''': [[Rasmussen Reports]] included Thad McCotter's name as a possible 2012 presidential contender in a public opinion poll. <ref>http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/bachman_leads_gop_dark_horse_pack</ref>
|-
|-
|[[File:Mitch Daniels.jpg|100px]]<br><center><big>'''[[Mitch Daniels]]'''</big><br>[[Governor of Indiana|Governor]]<br>of [[Indiana]]
|[[File:Mitch Daniels.jpg|100px]]<br><center><big>'''[[Mitch Daniels]]'''</big><br>[[Governor of Indiana|Governor]]<br>of [[Indiana]]

Revision as of 07:15, 30 April 2011

Republican presidential primaries, 2012
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Incumbent President

Barack Obama
Democratic



The Republican presidential primaries for the United States presidential election of 2012 will be held in the 2012 calendar year and be used to determine the presidential nominee of the Republican Party.

Calendar

Guidelines for primary and caucus dates

A temporary committee of the Republican National Committee (RNC), set up in 2010, recommended a new plan. Under this plan, the traditional states (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina) would hold their events in February, states' elected delegates proportionally could hold their events in March, with winner-take-all states and any other remaining states holding their events from April onward.[1] The amendment was passed in August 2010 by the full RNC by a vote of 144–103.[2]

Straw polls

Main article: Straw polls for the Republican Party presidential primaries, 2012

Several Republican and conservative organizations have held straw polls to test the support of potential presidential candidates among their respective memberships. As of 24 April 2011, Ron Paul and Mitt Romney have won 2 of these contests, and Herman Cain, Mitch Daniels and Mike Huckabee have each won 1.

The Ames Straw Poll, which traditionally receives major media attention and sometimes causes candidates to withdraw from the race will be held on August 13, 2011.

Debates

Main article: Republican Party (United States) presidential debates, 2012

The following debates have been scheduled so far:[3][4]

Primary and caucus dates

  • February 1 – March 5, 2012: Early states (Iowa caucuses, New Hampshire primary, Nevada caucuses, South Carolina primary)[6]
    • February 6 – Confirmed date of the Iowa caucuses[7]
    • February 14 – Expected date of New Hampshire primary
    • February 18 – Confirmed date of the Nevada caucuses
  • March 6–31, 2012: Primaries (and other contests) that provide for proportional allocation of delegates to the candidates, and all nonbinding caucuses;
  • April 1, 2012 onward: All other contests.

Convention

The 2012 Republican National Convention is scheduled to take place the week of August 27, 2012[8] in Tampa, Florida,[9] the week prior to when the 2012 Democratic National Convention is scheduled to take place.[10]

Candidates

Declared candidates are individuals who have formally announced that they are running for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012 and/or have filed as candidates with the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Individuals Exploring candidacy are potential candidates who have formed a Presidential exploratory committee (or other organization) to "test the waters" for a potential presidential bid, but have not officially declared their candidacy.

Declared candidates

Gary Johnson
Former Governor
of New Mexico
(campaign)
(website)
On April 21, 2011, announced the formation of his official presidential campaign in New Hampshire.[11]
Fred Karger
(from California)
Political consultant
and gay rights activist
(website)
In August 2010, Karger formed an exploratory committee.[12] On March 23, 2011 Karger officially declared his candidacy for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.[13][14]
Andy Martin
(from Illinois)
Perennial candidate and
Birther movement activist
(website)
On December 29, 2010, Martin announced in New Hampshire that he is making an official bid for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.[15][16]
Jimmy McMillan
(from New York)
Perennial candidate
(website)
On December 23, 2010, McMillan announced on Revolution Radio that he will seek the Republican nomination for President. McMillan, a registered Democrat and founder of the non-qualified Rent Is Too Damn High Party, stated he wanted to avoid a Democratic primary and would switch to the Republican Party to run.[17][18][19] McMillan officially filed with the Federal Election Commission on February 7, 2011.

Ole Savior
(from Minnesota)
Perennial candidate
Savior filed with the Federal Elections Commission October 10, 2010.[20][21][22]
Exploring candidacy

Herman Cain
(from Georgia)
Business magnate
and radio talk show host
(campaign)

(website)

Cain announced in January of 2011 that he had formed an exploratory committee to campaign for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination[23][24]
Newt Gingrich
(from Georgia)
Former Speaker of the U.S.
House of Representatives
(campaign)

(website)

On March 3, 2011, filed papers with the I.R.S. designating Newt Exploratory 2012 as a new organization formed to explore a possible candidacy.[25][26]
Roy Moore
Former Chief Justice of
the Supreme Court
of Alabama

(website)

Announced the formation of an exploratory committee on April 18, 2011.[27][28]
Ron Paul
U.S. Representative
from Texas

(campaign)
(website)

Paul announced the formation of a 'Testing-the-waters' account on April 14, 2011.[29] On April 26, 2011, Paul announced the formation of an exploratory committee[30]

Tim Pawlenty
Former Governor
of Minnesota

(campaign)
(website)

Pawlenty announced the formation of an exploratory committee on March 21, 2011.[31]
Buddy Roemer
Former Governor
of Louisiana

(campaign)
(website)

Announced the formation of an exploratory committee on March 3, 2011.[32][33]

Mitt Romney
Former Governor
of Massachusetts

(campaign)
(website)

Romney formed an exploratory committee on April 11, 2011 as the first step in his bid for the presidency.[34]
Rick Santorum
Former U.S. Senator
for Pennsylvania

(campaign)
(website)

Announced the formation of an exploratory committee on April 13, 2011. [35]

Prospective candidates

Current

The following is a list of individuals who are being discussed – in two or more unique, reputable sources that are less than one month old – in regard to the 2012 primary. They are listed in order of the date of the most recent media citation.

Speculated to run

Jon Huntsman
(from Utah)
Former U.S. Ambassador
to China
April 29, 2011: Wall Street Journal: "In the slow-moving 2012 presidential campaign, the saga of Mr. Huntsman adds still more uncertainty to the Republican nomination contest. The former Utah governor has told nobody in his political operation what he intends to do, the people involved say, but the operation is moving forward without him."[36]

April 29, 2011: ABC News: "U.S. Ambassador Jon Huntsman officially leaves his post Saturday as the country's top diplomat in China -- a move that clears the way for a likely bid to unseat his former boss, President Obama, during the presidential election in 2012."[37]


Thad McCotter
U.S. Representative
from Michigan
April 29, 2011: The Hill: "New York Daily News columnist S.E. Cupp has a name to add to the new people: guitar hero and Michigan Rep. Thaddeus McCotter, author of a new book, Seize Freedom! American Truths and Renewal in a Chaotic Age. She says he could become the next president of the United States." [38]

April 29, 2011: Rasmussen Reports included Thad McCotter's name as a possible 2012 presidential contender in a public opinion poll. [39]


Mitch Daniels
Governor
of Indiana
April 28, 2011: The Hill: "Daniels is nearing a final decision on 2012. He has said he will decide sometime after the current legislative session comes to a close in Indiana — that happens Friday."[40]

April 29, 2011: RealClearPolitics: "After Indiana's legislature gavels to a close today, Mitch Daniels will enter the final phase of his decision-making process about whether to run for the presidency in 2012."[41]


Donald Trump
(from New York)
Real estate magnate and media personality
April 27, 2011: Reuters: "Donald Trump kept his presidential tease tour rolling on Wednesday with a high profile trip to New Hampshire. Some polls show Trump could attract serious support amid a lackluster field for the Republican nomination to challenge Democratic President Barack Obama in 2012."[42]

April 28, 2011: UPI.com: "Early in the 2012 election cycle, U.S. business mogul Donald Trump has an edge over the presumptive favorites, a Rasmussen Report survey indicated Thursday."[43]


John Bolton
(from Maryland)
Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations
April 4, 2011: The American Spectator: "Bolton's experience in 1964 and since -- in his confirmation hearings to be UN ambassador, which nomination ultimately failed -- may have taught him the lessons a candidate will need in 2012 to know how to overcome that media activism."[44]

April 27, 2011: Politico: "John Bolton .... dismissed concerns that America is facing historic decline, saying that electing a 'real president' in 2012 would renew the country's vibrancy. Bolton, ..... says he still might enter the race for the Republican nomination."[45]


Rudy Giuliani
Former Mayor
of New York City
April 25, 2011: New York Observer: "Last month, Giuliani spoke to the local G.O.P.'s Lincoln-Reagan Dinner, but aides were careful to characterize that visit as repaying some old debts to friends and supporters. But the next visit would seem to give a greater indication that Giuliani is still seriously considering the race. The parties(.....)are expressly designed to host potential presidential candidates."[46]

April 26, 2011: National Journal: "Rudy Giuliani is leaving 'the door open' for a run for the Republican nomination in 2012 if it looks like no one else can beat President Obama [....] [Giuliani] is traveling to New Hampshire next week to talk about law enforcement, and he stays in touch with people there to 'try to figure out what kind of a chance I have'."[47]


Sarah Palin
Former Governor
of Alaska
April 23, 2011: The Washington Post: "Three other serious candidates have been on the fringes of the race: Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, and Mitch Daniels. Each has done some of the things that candidates do in the early stages of the “invisible” primary — the stage before the voters get involved, during which party elites broadly make decisions which help structure the field for the election year, and in some cases fully determine the nomination. However, these none of these three has done the things that candidates traditionally do as the voting draws closer, including announcing that they’re running." [48]

April 23, 2011: The Wall Street Journal: "Ms. Palin's plans for 2012 remain a big topic across a state famed for its first-in-the-nation caucus, a contest—now set for February—that rewards those who really work the state, from county fairs to small-town living rooms. Ms. Palin, who appeared at a tea-party event in Wisconsin over the weekend, is slipping in most national polls, but GOP activists here believe she would scramble the emerging field if she jumps in."[49]


Mike Huckabee
(from Florida)
Former Governor
of Arkansas
[50]
April 21, 2011: MSNBC.com: "Can a man leading most GOP presidential polls turn a 2012 run down in favor of a weekend TV show, a mortgage, and motivational speeches? That's the question confronting Mike Huckabee, the one-time minister turned three-term Arkansas governor and 2008 presidential candidate turned Fox News host."[51]

April 23, 2011: The Washington Post: "Three other serious candidates have been on the fringes of the race: Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, and Mitch Daniels. Each has done some of the things that candidates do in the early stages of the “invisible” primary — the stage before the voters get involved, during which party elites broadly make decisions which help structure the field for the election year, and in some cases fully determine the nomination. However, these none of these three has done the things that candidates traditionally do as the voting draws closer, including announcing that they’re running." [48]


Michele Bachmann
U.S. Representative
from Minnesota
April 19, 2011: The Post and Courier: "Bachmann is gauging support for a presidential bid, and said she plans to decide by June or early summer whether to run."[52]

April 23, 2011: The Independent: "It's possible Bachmann is just seeking attention, but most now think not. "I'll make a decision about my candidacy in the summer sometime," she tells this reporter in Arizona. It's been widely reported that she intends creating an exploratory committee – the usual first step before formally declaring – in June. And nearly every day brings another clue that she is serious about pursuing the White House. Earlier this month, she hired the man who served as Huckabee's political director in Iowa in 2008 to do the same job for her. And there is the money. It is pouring in already. In the first 90 days of this year she harvested $2m, more than anyone else who might be running."[53]

Declined bids

The following people, who were speculated to be potential presidential candidates have – following the 2010 midterm elections – clearly and unequivocally denied interest publicly, or released Shermanesque statements, or have declared candidacy for a different political office in 2012. This also includes anyone who has endorsed a declared presidential candidate.

Not running

Previous

The following people have been the object of presidential speculation in past media reports, but have not recently signaled an interest in actually running. This gallery does not include people who have declined to run (See above).

Received earlier speculation

Hypothetical polling

References

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