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Pundits and analysts have suggested Nelson will be one of the most vulnerable incumbents in 2012 after he [[Nebraska Compromise|secured deals]] to exempt Nebraska from new [[Medicaid]] payments, ease excise taxes on home state health insurance companies, and broker abortion deals in the [[Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act|Senate healthcare bill]].<ref name=nelsonre-election>{{cite news | url = http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1209/30947.html | title = Nebraska governor to Ben Nelson: Keep the money | author = Manu Raju | publisher = Politico |date = December 24, 2009}}</ref>
Pundits and analysts have suggested Nelson will be one of the most vulnerable incumbents in 2012 after he [[Nebraska Compromise|secured deals]] to exempt Nebraska from new [[Medicaid]] payments, ease excise taxes on home state health insurance companies, and broker abortion deals in the [[Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act|Senate healthcare bill]].<ref name=nelsonre-election>{{cite news | url = http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1209/30947.html | title = Nebraska governor to Ben Nelson: Keep the money | author = Manu Raju | publisher = Politico |date = December 24, 2009}}</ref>


State Treasurer [[Don Stenberg]] and [[Nebraska Attorney General|State Attorney General]] [[Jon Bruning]] have announced their candidacies.<ref name=bruning>{{cite news | url = http://www.omaha.com/article/20101105/NEWS01/101109834/559194 | title = Bruning 'ready to run' for Senate | date = November 5, 2010 | publisher = Omaha.com}}</ref> A February 1, 2011 poll conducted by Public Policy Polling showed Bruning leading Nelson by a 50% to 39% margin and Stenberg leading Nelson by a 45% to 41% margin.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/02/nelson-trails-bruning-stenberg.html |title=Public Policy Polling: Nelson trails Bruning, Stenberg |publisher=Publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com |date=February 1, 2011 |accessdate=June 27, 2011}}</ref>
State Treasurer [[Don Stenberg]], State Senator [[Deb Fischer]] and [[Nebraska Attorney General|State Attorney General]] [[Jon Bruning]] have announced their candidacies.<ref name=bruning>{{cite news | url = http://www.omaha.com/article/20101105/NEWS01/101109834/559194 | title = Bruning 'ready to run' for Senate | date = November 5, 2010 | publisher = Omaha.com}}</ref><ref>[http://www.omaha.com/article/20110628/NEWS01/706289903 Fischer begins U.S. Senate bid] The Omaha World-Herald. June 28, 2011</ref> A February 1, 2011 poll conducted by Public Policy Polling showed Bruning leading Nelson by a 50% to 39% margin, Stenberg leading Nelson by a 45% to 41% margin, and Nelson leading Fischer by a 42% to 35% margin.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/02/nelson-trails-bruning-stenberg.html |title=Public Policy Polling: Nelson trails Bruning, Stenberg |publisher=Publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com |date=February 1, 2011 |accessdate=June 27, 2011}}</ref>


[[Governor of Nebraska|Nebraska Governor]] [[Dave Heineman]] has announced he will not run.<ref>{{cite news|author=By Paul HammelWORLD-HERALD BUREAU |url=http://www.omaha.com/article/20101104/NEWS01/101109857/942833 |title=Heineman: No Senate bid in 2012 |publisher=Omaha.com |date= |accessdate=November 5, 2010}}</ref>
[[Governor of Nebraska|Nebraska Governor]] [[Dave Heineman]] has announced he will not run.<ref>{{cite news|author=By Paul HammelWORLD-HERALD BUREAU |url=http://www.omaha.com/article/20101104/NEWS01/101109857/942833 |title=Heineman: No Senate bid in 2012 |publisher=Omaha.com |date= |accessdate=November 5, 2010}}</ref>

Revision as of 13:35, 28 June 2011

United States Senate elections, 2012
← 2010 November 6, 2012 2014 →
Class I (33 of the 100) seats in the United States Senate
51 seats needed for a majority
  Majority party Minority party
 
Leader Harry Reid Mitch McConnell
Party Democratic Republican
Leader's seat Nevada Kentucky
Last election 53 (includes 2 independents who caucus with Democrats) 47
Senate Seats up for election:
  Democratic incumbent
  Retiring Democrat
  Independent incumbent
  Retiring Independent
  Republican incumbent
  Retiring Republican
  No Senate election
Majority Leader before election

Harry Reid
Democratic

Elected Majority Leader

TBD

Elections to the United States Senate are to be held on November 6, 2012, with 33 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular elections whose winners will serve six-year terms from January 3, 2013 until January 3, 2019. Additionally, special elections may be held to fill vacancies that occur during the 112th United States Congress. Currently, Democrats are expected to have 23 seats up for election, including 2 independents who caucus with the Democrats, while Republicans are only expected to have 10 seats up for election.

The 2012 presidential election, elections to the House of Representatives, elections for governors in 13 states and territories, and many state and local elections will also be held on this date.

Race summary

State Incumbent Party Status Announced Candidates 2006 Election Results
Arizona Jon Kyl Republican Retiring [1] Jeff Flake (R)[2]
Doug McKee (R)[3] 		Jon Kyl (R) 53% (Inc.),
Jim Pederson (D) 44%,
Other 3%
California Dianne Feinstein Democratic Running[4] Keith Holbrook (R)[5]
Michael Stollaire (R)[6]
Don Grundmann (AIP)[7] 		Dianne Feinstein (D) 59% (Inc.),
Dick Mountjoy (R) 35%,
Other 6%
Connecticut Joe Lieberman Independent Retiring [8] Susan Bysiewicz (D)[9]
Chris Murphy (D)[10]
William Tong (D)
Brian Hill (R)[11]
Paul Passarelli (L)[12] 		Joe Lieberman (I) 50% (Inc.),
Ned Lamont (D) 40%,
Alan Schlesinger (R) 10%
Delaware Tom Carper Democratic Running[13] Tom Carper (D) 70% (Inc.),
Jan Ting (R) 29%,
Other 1%
Florida Bill Nelson Democratic Running[14] Bill Fisher Jr. (R)[15]
Alexander George (R)[16]
Mike Haridopolos (R)
Adam Hasner (R)[17]
George LeMieux (R) [18]
Mike McCalister (R)[14]
Ron Rushing (R)[19] 		Bill Nelson (D) 60% (Inc.),
Katherine Harris (R) 38%,
Other 2%
Hawaii Daniel Akaka Democratic Retiring[20] Ed Case (D)
Mazie Hirono (D) 		Daniel Akaka (D) 61% (Inc.),
Cynthia Thielen (R) 37%,
Other 2%
Indiana Richard Lugar Republican Running[21] Richard Mourdock (R)
Joe Donnelly (D) 		Richard Lugar (R) 87% (Inc.),
Steve Osborn (Libertarian) 13%
Maine Olympia Snowe Republican Running[22] Scott D'Amboise (R)[23]
Andrew Ian Dodge (R)[24] 		Olympia Snowe (R) 74% (Inc.),
Jean Hay Bright (D) 21%,
Bill Slavick (I) 5%
Maryland Ben Cardin Democratic Running[25] Raymond Blagmon (D)[26]
Daniel Bongino (R)[27]
William Capps (R)[28]
Rick Hoover(R)[29]
Eric Wargotz (R)[30] 		Ben Cardin (D) 54%,
Michael Steele (R) 44%,
Other 2%
Massachusetts Scott Brown Republican Running[31] Tom Conroy (D)[32]
Marisa DeFranco (D)[33]
Alan Khazei (D)
Bob Massie (D)
Herb Robinson (D)[34]
Setti Warren (D) 		2006 Election
Ted Kennedy (D) 69% (Inc.),
Kenneth Chase (R) 31%

2010 Special Election
Scott Brown (R) 52%,
Martha Coakley (D) 47%
Michigan Debbie Stabenow Democratic Running[22] Chad Dewey (R)[35]
Randy Hekman (R)[36]
Peter Konetchy (R)[37] 		Debbie Stabenow (D) 57% (Inc.),
Mike Bouchard (R) 41%,
Other 2%
Minnesota Amy Klobuchar Democratic Running[22] Dick Franson (D)[38]
Dan Severson (R) 		Amy Klobuchar (DFL) 58%,
Mark Kennedy (R) 38%,
Other 4%
Mississippi Roger Wicker Republican Running[22] 2006 Election
Trent Lott (R) 64% (Inc.),
Erik Fleming (D) 35%,
Other 1%

2008 Special Election
Roger Wicker (R) 55%,
Ronnie Musgrove (D) 45%
Missouri Claire McCaskill Democratic Running[39] Todd Akin (R)[40]
Samuel Lipari (D)[41]
Sarah Steelman (R) 		Jim Talent (R) 47% (Inc.),
Claire McCaskill (D) 50%,
Other 3%
Montana Jon Tester Democratic Running[42] Denny Rehberg (R)[43] Conrad Burns (R) 48% (Inc.),
Jon Tester (D) 49%,
Other 3%
Nebraska Ben Nelson Democratic Running[44] Jon Bruning (R)[45]
Pat Flynn (R)[46]
Don Stenberg (R)
Russell Anderson (I)[47] 		Ben Nelson (D) 64% (Inc.),
Pete Ricketts (R) 36%
Nevada Dean Heller Republican Running [48] Edward Hamilton (R)[49]
Shelley Berkley (D)
Byron Georgiou (D) 		John Ensign (R) 55% (Inc.),
Jack Carter (D) 41%,
Other 4%
New Jersey Bob Menendez Democratic Running[22] Jeff Boss (D)[50]
Joe Kyrillos (R)[51]
Ian Linker (R)[52]
Larry Donahue (I)[53] 		Bob Menendez (D) 53% (Inc.),
Thomas Kean Jr. (R) 45%,
Other 2%
New Mexico Jeff Bingaman Democratic Retiring[54] Hector Balderas (D)
Martin Heinrich (D) [55]
Andres Valdez (D)[56]
Bill English (R)[57]
John Sanchez (R)[58]
Greg Sowards (R)[59]
Heather Wilson (R) 		Jeff Bingaman (D) 71% (Inc.),
Allen McCulloch (R) 29%
New York Kirsten Gillibrand Democratic Running[60] Scott Noren (D)[61]
George Maragos (R)[62] 		2006 Election
Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) 67% (Inc.),
John Spencer (R) 31%,
Other 2%

2010 Special Election
Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 63%,
Joseph DioGuardi (R) 35%,
Other 2%
North Dakota Kent Conrad Democratic Retiring [63] Rick Berg (R) Kent Conrad (D-NPL) 69% (Inc.),
Dwight Grotberg (R) 29%,
Other 2%
Ohio Sherrod Brown Democratic Running[31] Rusty Bliss (R)[64]
Kevin Coughlin (R)
Eric LaMont Gregory (R)[65]
Michael Pryce (R)[66] 		Mike DeWine (R) 44% (Inc.),
Sherrod Brown (D) 56%
Pennsylvania Bob Casey, Jr. Democratic Running[67] Laureen Cummings (R)
Marc Scaringi (R)[68] 		Rick Santorum (R) 41% (Inc.),
Bob Casey, Jr. (D) 59%
Rhode Island Sheldon Whitehouse Democratic Running[22] Barry Hinckley (R)[69] Lincoln Chafee (R) 47% (Inc.),
Sheldon Whitehouse (D) 53%
Tennessee Bob Corker Republican Running[22] James Durkan (R)[70] Bob Corker (R) 51%,
Harold Ford, Jr. (D) 48%,
Other 1%
Texas Kay Bailey Hutchison Republican Retiring [71] Glenn Addison (R)[72]
Elizabeth Ames Jones (R)
Andrew Castanuela (R)[73]
Ted Cruz (R)
Nick Latham [74]
Tom Leppert (R)
Lela Pittenger (R)[75]
David Smith[76]
Roger Williams (R)
Stanley Garza (D)[77]
Sean Hubbard (D)[78]
Chris Tina Foxx Bruce (I)[79] 		Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) 62% (Inc.),
Barbara Ann Radnofsky (D) 36%,
Other 2%
Utah Orrin Hatch Republican Running[80] Jason Chaffetz (R)[81]
Christopher Stout(D)[82] 		Orrin Hatch (R) 62% (Inc.),
Pete Ashdown (D) 31%,
Other 7%
Vermont Bernie Sanders Independent Running[22] Cris Ericson (MJP)[83] Bernie Sanders (I) 65%,
Richard Tarrant (R) 32%,
Other 3%
Virginia Jim Webb Democratic Retiring [84] Tim Kaine (D)
Courtney Lynch (D)[85]
George Allen (R)[86]
Tim Donner (R)[87]
Bishop E.W. Jackson Sr. (R)
David McCormick (R)[88]
Jamie Radtke (R)[89]
Kevin Chisholm (I)[90] 		George Allen (R) 49% (Inc.),
Jim Webb (D) 50%,
Other 1%
Washington Maria Cantwell Democratic Running[22] Maria Cantwell (D) 57% (Inc.),
Mike McGavick (R) 40%,
Other 3%
West Virginia Joe Manchin Democratic Running[22] 2006 Election
Robert Byrd (D) 64% (Inc.),
John Raese (R) 34%,
Other 2%

2010 Special Election
Joe Manchin (D) 54%,
John Raese (R) 43%,
Other 3%
Wisconsin Herb Kohl Democratic Retiring [91] John Schiess (R)[92] Herb Kohl (D) 67% (Inc.),
Robert Lorge (R) 30%,
Other 3%
Wyoming John Barrasso Republican Running[22] 2006 Election
Craig Thomas (R) 70% (Inc.),
Dale Groutage (D) 30%

2008 Special Election
John Barrasso (R) 73%,
Nick Carter (D) 27%

Composition

Among the Senate seats up for election in 2012, there are 21 Democrats, 10 Republicans and 2 Independents. The Independents include Joe Lieberman, who ran and won as an independent in 2006 after losing the Connecticut Democratic primary. Lieberman and Independent Bernie Sanders of Vermont both caucus with the Democratic Party.

If Senators in other classes die or resign between 2011 and 2012, there may be additional special elections between the beginning of the 112th Congress (on January 3, 2011), and the 2012 election. The dates between which the death or resignation of a Senator would lead a special election during this time period vary from state to state.

Predictions

Source Safe Democratic* Likely Democratic* Leans Democratic* Tossup Leans Republican Likely Republican Safe Republican
Consensus among
all predictions 		Delaware
Maryland
Vermont* 		Ohio Missouri
Montana
Virginia 		North Dakota Mississippi
Utah
Wyoming
Roll Call
as of May 14, 2011
(updates) 		California
Minnesota
New York 		Connecticut*
Hawaii
Michigan
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Washington
West Virginia 		Florida
Massachusetts
Nebraska
Nevada
New Mexico
Wisconsin[93] 		Arizona
Maine 		Indiana
Tennessee 		Texas
Sabato's Crystal Ball
as of June 27, 2011
(updates) 		California
New York
Rhode Island
Washington 		Connecticut*
Michigan
Minnesota
Pennsylvania 		Florida
Hawaii
New Jersey
West Virginia 		Nebraska
New Mexico
Wisconsin 		Massachusetts
Nevada 		Arizona
Indiana
Maine 		Tennessee
Texas
Cook Political
Report
as of May 26, 2011
(updates) 		California
Hawaii
Minnesota
New Jersey
New York
Rhode Island 		Connecticut*
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Washington 		Florida Massachusetts
Nebraska
Nevada
New Mexico
West Virginia
Wisconsin 		Arizona
Indiana
Maine
Texas 		Tennessee
Rothenberg Political
Report
as of May 20, 2011
(updates) 		California
Connecticut*
Hawaii
Minnesota
New Jersey
New York
Rhode Island 		Michigan
Pennsylvania
Washington 		West Virginia
Wisconsin 		Florida
Massachusetts
Nebraska
Nevada
New Mexico 		Arizona Maine
 Indiana
Tennessee
Texas
RealClearPolitics
(updates) 		Hawaii
New York
Rhode Island 		California
Connecticut*
Minnesota
New Jersey
Washington
West Virginia 		New Mexico
Pennsylvania 		Florida
Massachusetts
Michigan
Nevada
Wisconsin 		Arizona
Maine
Nebraska 		Indiana
Texas 		Tennessee

*The Democrats include Independent Democrat Joe Lieberman, who ran and won as an independent in 2006 after losing the Connecticut Democratic primary. Lieberman and Independent Bernie Sanders of Vermont both caucus with the Democratic Party.

Overview of races (33 seats)

Democrats/Independents retiring (6 seats)

Joe Lieberman of Connecticut

Main article: United States Senate election in Connecticut, 2012

Four-term incumbent Independent Joe Lieberman (an Independent who caucuses with the Democrats) will not seek reelection in 2012.[94] Senator Lieberman sat as a Democrat until 2006, when he was defeated by Ned Lamont in the Democratic primary. He won re-election with 49.7% of the vote in 2006 as an independent under the Connecticut for Lieberman Party and has since caucused with the Democrats as an "Independent Democrat."

Former Connecticut Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz (D)[10] and Democratic Congressman Chris Murphy[95] have announced their candidacies for the Democratic Primary. In addition, State Representative William Tong, a self-identified fiscally conservative democrat, is also considering a US Senate Run.[96]

Potential Republican Candidates include 2010 Senate nominee Linda McMahon,[97] former Lieutenant Governor Michael Fedele,[98] and former Congressmen Chris Shays and Rob Simmons.[99]

Daniel Akaka of Hawaii

Main article: United States Senate election in Hawaii, 2012

Four-term incumbent Democrat Daniel Akaka was re-elected in 2006 with 62% of the vote. Akaka has decided not to run for re-election in 2012.[100]

Former Republican Governor Linda Lingle may seek the seat.[101]

Former Congressman Ed Case, who challenged Akaka for the Democratic nomination in 2006, and Congresswoman Mazie Hirono have both announced their candidacies for the seat.[102] Other possible Democratic candidates include Congresswoman Colleen Hanabusa, Lieutenant Governor Brian Schatz, and former Mayor of Honolulu Mufi Hannemann.

Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico

Main article: United States Senate election in New Mexico, 2012

Five-term incumbent Democrat Jeff Bingaman was re-elected in 2006 with 70.6% of the vote. Bingaman has decided to not run for re-election in 2012.[103]

Businessman Bill English has announced his candidacy as a Republican.[57] On March 7, 2011, former U.S. Representative Heather Wilson announced that she will seek the Republican nomination.[104] Other Republican Candidates include Businessman Greg Sowards and Lieutenant Governor John Sanchez. 2008 Republican nominee for U.S. Senate Steve Pearce is also looking at another run.

Congressmen Martin Heinrich and state Auditor Hector Balderas have declared their candidacies. Other possible Democratic Candidates include former Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chávez, and former Lieutenant Governor and 2010 Democratic Gubernatorial nominee Diane Denish.

Kent Conrad of North Dakota

Main article: United States Senate election in North Dakota, 2012

Four-term incumbent Democrat Kent Conrad was re-elected in 2006 with 69% of the vote. Conrad has decided to not run for re-election in 2012.[105]

U.S. Representative Rick Berg[106] has announced his candidacy as a Republican. State public service commissioner Brian Kalk initially announced his candidacy as well, but has since dropped it to run for the at large congressional seat held by Berg.[107]

Jim Webb of Virginia

Main article: United States Senate election in Virginia, 2012

One-term incumbent Democrat Jim Webb was elected in 2006 by a margin of 0.6%, narrowly defeating then-incumbent George Allen in the biggest upset of the 2006 elections. Announcing that he did not want spend his life in politics, Webb said he will not run for re-election.[108]

The Republican Party of Virginia decided that the Republican nominee for this senate seat would be determined through a primary, as opposed to a state convention which had been used in more recent years. On January 24, 2011, George Allen announced that he will seek the Republican nomination.[109]

Jamie Radtke, head of the Virginia Tea Party Patriots, has filed papers to run for the Republican nomination.[110]

Also considering a run for the Republican nomination are state Del. Robert G. Marshall (R-Manassas) and Corey Stewart, the chairman of the Prince William County Board of Supervisors. Marshall ran for the U.S. Senate in 2008, narrowly losing the Republican nomination at the state convention to former Governor Jim Gilmore by only 69 votes.

On the Democratic Side, former Governor and DNC chairman Tim Kaine has announced that he will run for the seat. Other possible candidates include Congressman Bobby Scott and former Congressmen Rick Boucher and Tom Perriello.

Herb Kohl of Wisconsin

Main article: United States Senate election in Wisconsin, 2012

Four-term incumbent Democrat Herb Kohl, owner of the NBA's Milwaukee Bucks and member of the founding family of the Kohl's department store chain, announced he would not seek reelection in 2012.[91] He was reelected in 2006 with 67% of the vote and will be 77 years old in 2012.

Potential candidates for the Democrats include former U.S. Senator Russ Feingold (who lost his 2010 re-election bid to Republican Ron Johnson) and U.S. Representatives Tammy Baldwin and Ron Kind, as well as Milwaukee mayor and 2010 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Tom Barrett, former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk, and Madison biotechnology executive Kevin Conroy.[111]

On the Republican side, Congressman and House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan stated he would not run against Kohl if he had sought re-election, but would contemplate a run if Kohl retired.[112] However, he later stated that he was "95 percent sure" that he would not run.[113] Other potential GOP candidates include former congressman and 2010 gubernatorial candidate Mark Neumann, state Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen, and former Governor Tommy Thompson.[114]

Democrats/Independents seeking re-election (17 seats)

Dianne Feinstein of California

Main article: United States Senate election in California, 2012

Four-term incumbent Democrat Dianne Feinstein was re-elected in 2006 with 59% of the vote. She will be 79 years old in 2012.

At a rally for Barbara Boxer in October 2010, Feinstein hinted that she will be running for re-election.[4]

Possible GOP Nominees include 2010 GOP Senate nominee Carly Fiorina, state Assemblyman Chuck DeVore,[115] Congressman Darrell Issa[116] and Keith Holbrook.[5] 2010 Republican Gubernatorial nominee Meg Whitman has ruled out a Senate Run.[117]

Tom Carper of Delaware

Main article: United States Senate election in Delaware, 2012

Two-term incumbent Democrat Tom Carper was reelected with 70% of the vote in 2006. He will be 65 years old in 2012. Carper will seek re-election.[13]

Possible Republican candidates include political commentator and 2010 Republican U.S. Senate nominee Christine O'Donnell[118] and Businesswoman and 2010 Republican U.S. Congress primary nominee Michele Rollins.

Bill Nelson of Florida

Main article: United States Senate election in Florida, 2012

Two-term incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson was reelected with 60% of the vote in 2006 against controversial former Secretary of State of Florida Katherine Harris. He will be 70 years old in 2012. Nelson will seek re-election. Plant City Republican Mike McCalister has announced his candidacy, as has Florida State Senate President Mike Haridopolos,[119][120] former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner[121] and former U.S. Senator George LeMieux.[18]

Other potential Republican candidates include Congressman Vern Buchanan[122] and Lieutenant Governor Jennifer Carroll[123]

Polls conducted in May 2011 showed Nelson leading all his potential opponents by between 19 and 25 points.

Ben Cardin of Maryland

Main article: United States Senate election in Maryland, 2012

First-term incumbent Democrat Ben Cardin was elected in 2006 with 54% of the vote against former Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael S. Steele. He will be 69 years old in 2012. According to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted of 569 voters from July 10–12, 2010, in a potential rematch of 2006, Cardin leads Steele 58% to 28%. In a generic matchup, Cardin leads with 51%, to an unknown generic Republican at 33%.[124]

After losing reelection for the RNC chairmanship, Steele may seek a rematch with Cardin[125] Former U.S. Secret Service agent Daniel Bongino has announced his candidacy.[27]

Debbie Stabenow of Michigan

Main article: United States Senate election in Michigan, 2012

Two-term incumbent Democrat Debbie Stabenow was re-elected in 2006 with 57% of the vote to 41% for Oakland County Sheriff and former State Senate Majority Leader Michael Bouchard after narrowly defeating Republican incumbent Spencer Abraham in 2000.

Republican Conservative Constitutionalist and Tea Party Activist Chad Dewey announced his intent to run in the 2012 election while attending the Tax Day Tea Party event in Washington D.C. on April 15, 2010.[126] Also libertarian activist Scotty Boman is considering a run as a Republican.[127] On May 11, it was reported that Congressman Thad McCotter was thinking of entering the race.[128] Cardlologist Rob Steele, who ran for the U.S. House of Representatives in 2010, is a possible candidate.[129]

Recent polling shows Stabenow leading all potential opponents.[130]

Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota

Main article: United States Senate election in Minnesota, 2012

One-term incumbent Democrat Amy Klobuchar was elected in 2006 with 58% of the vote. Senator Klobuchar's approval ratings, last reported at.,[131] have steadily risen since her election in November 2006. Her quick response to the I-35 bridge collapse in her home city of Minneapolis and her travels around the state have solidified the senator's popularity with the citizens of Minnesota. On March 12, 2010, a Rasmussen poll indicated 67% of Minnesotans approved of the job she was doing. Former state Representative and retired Navy pilot Dan Severson has announced his candidacy.[132]

Claire McCaskill of Missouri

Main article: United States Senate election in Missouri, 2012

In this bellwether state, one-term incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill was elected in 2006 with 49.6% of the vote, narrowly defeating then-incumbent Jim Talent. McCaskill will seek re-election in 2012, so far with no prominent Democrat challenging her.[133]

For now, the Republican contenders are Congressman Todd Akin and former State Treasurer Sarah Steelman.[134][135] Businessman John Brunner is still considering a run.[136] Jim Talent declined to run again, and Attorney Ed Martin and former Missouri GOP Chair Ann Wagner are instead eyeing Missouri's 2nd Congressional District.[137][138][139] Congressman Blaine Luetkemeyer also declined, and will be running for re-election in the 3rd district.[140]

A survey by PPP conducted April 28-May 1, 2011 showed McCaskill ahead of all declared and potential Republican candidates, but with Akin, Luetkemeyer and Steelman polling within the margin of error of ± 3.9%. In the same survey, Steelman and Akin lead the race for the Republican nomination, although 28% of voters were undecided.[141]

Jon Tester of Montana

Main article: United States Senate election in Montana, 2012

One-term incumbent Democrat Jon Tester was elected in 2006 by a 49.2% to 48.3% margin, narrowly defeating incumbent Conrad Burns. Tester will seek re-election.[42] Republican Congressman Denny Rehberg has announced his candidacy for the seat.[142] A March 20, 2011 poll taken for Lee Newspapers shows Tester leading Rehberg by a statistically insignificant margin of 46% to 45%.

Former Republican Montana Governor Marc Racicot is also looking at running.[143]

Ben Nelson of Nebraska

Main article: United States Senate election in Nebraska, 2012

Two-term incumbent and former Governor Democrat Ben Nelson was re-elected in 2006 with 64% of the vote. He will be 71 years old in 2012. Nelson has decided to seek a third term.[44]

Pundits and analysts have suggested Nelson will be one of the most vulnerable incumbents in 2012 after he secured deals to exempt Nebraska from new Medicaid payments, ease excise taxes on home state health insurance companies, and broker abortion deals in the Senate healthcare bill.[144]

State Treasurer Don Stenberg, State Senator Deb Fischer and State Attorney General Jon Bruning have announced their candidacies.[45][145] A February 1, 2011 poll conducted by Public Policy Polling showed Bruning leading Nelson by a 50% to 39% margin, Stenberg leading Nelson by a 45% to 41% margin, and Nelson leading Fischer by a 42% to 35% margin.[146]

Nebraska Governor Dave Heineman has announced he will not run.[147]

Bob Menendez of New Jersey

Main article: United States Senate election in New Jersey, 2012

One-term incumbent Democrat Bob Menendez became the first Hispanic Senator to represent New Jersey in January 2006 when Former Senator Jon Corzine appointed him to the office after having resigned to become Governor, following his election to said office in November 2005. Menendez comfortably defeated Republican state Senator Tom Kean, Jr., son of popular former Governor and 9/11 Commission Chairman Tom Kean and was comfortably elected in November 2006 to a full term. He will be 58 years old in 2012.

In November 2009, former CNN Anchor Lou Dobbs was seriously considering a challenge to Menendez as either a Republican or Independent.[148] Biotech executive John Crowley has been rumored to be a potential candidate and Republicans believe that his wealth and appealing biography would make him an appealing candidate.[149]

Kirsten Gillibrand of New York

Main article: United States Senate election in New York, 2012

Two-term former Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton was re-elected in 2006 with 67% of the vote. She narrowly lost the 2008 Democratic Presidential nomination to Barack Obama. She resigned on January 21, 2009 when the Senate confirmed her as Secretary of State. On January 23, Governor David Paterson appointed Congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand to the seat. Gillibrand won a special election in 2010 with 61.2% of the vote. Gillibrand will seek re-election[60]

Sherrod Brown of Ohio

Main article: United States Senate election in Ohio, 2012

One-term incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown was elected in 2006 with 56% of the vote, defeating then-incumbent Mike DeWine, whose popularity suffered due to scandals involving former Republican Governor Bob Taft and ex-Congressman Bob Ney. A poll conducted June 26–27 by Public Policy Polling shows that 45% of voters would vote to re-elect Brown, while 41% would vote to replace him.[150]

Brown will seek re-election in 2012 when he will be 60 years old. State Treasurer Josh Mandel,[151] Eric LaMont Gregory,[152] Congressman Jim Jordan, Lieutenant Governor Mary Taylor,[153] Congressman Steve LaTourette[154] have all been named as possible Republican contenders. Dave Zanotti of the Ohio Roundtable has also been mentioned as a possible contender, running as an independent.

A Quinnipiac University survey from May showed Brown leading all potential opposition with former Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell who has decided not to run performing the best.[155] In the survey Brown led Blackwell 44% to 35%.[156]

Bob Casey, Jr. of Pennsylvania

Main article: United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2012

One-term incumbent Democrat Bob Casey, Jr., the son of popular former Governor Bob Casey, was elected in 2006 with 58.7% of the vote, defeating then-incumbent Rick Santorum. He was the first Democrat elected to a full term in the U.S. Senate from Pennsylvania since 1962. Casey will seek re-election.[67]

Former Senate staffer Marc Scaringi has announced his candidacy as a Republican.[68] State Senator Jake Corman is thinking of running but won't make a decision until after the state budget is passed[157]

Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island

Main article: United States Senate election in Rhode Island, 2012

One-term incumbent Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse was elected in 2006 with 53.5% of the vote, defeating then-incumbent Lincoln Chafee by 6 percentage points. Whitehouse will seek reelection.

Potential Republican Candidates include Former Governor Donald Carcieri,[158] 2010 Republican nominee for Governor John Robitaille,[159][160] and Warwick Mayor Scott Avedisian.[161]

Bernie Sanders of Vermont

Main article: United States Senate election in Vermont, 2012

One-term incumbent Independent Bernie Sanders is an independent Senator (and self-described democratic socialist) who caucuses with the Democrats and won election with 65.4% of the vote in 2006 after Jim Jeffords, also an independent, retired. Sanders will be 71 years old in 2012.

Former Republican Governor Jim Douglas is looking at a possible run,[162] and state Auditor Thomas Salmon, Jr. is seriously thinking of being a candidate.[163]

Maria Cantwell of Washington

Main article: United States Senate election in Washington, 2012

Two-term incumbent Democrat Maria Cantwell was re-elected in 2006 with 57% of the vote over Republican Mike McGavick. A poll conducted by Public Policy Polling July 27-August 1, 2010 of 1,204 voters had Cantwell leading in two potential matchups. In a matchup with Republican Congressman Dave Reichert, Cantwell led 47% to 41%. In a matchup with Republican Congresswoman Cathy McMorris Rodgers, Cantwell led 49% to 37%.[164] Susan Hutchison, who was a 2009 candidate for King County Executive, has also been mentioned as a possible opponent for Cantwell.[165]

Joe Manchin of West Virginia

Main article: United States Senate election in West Virginia, 2012

Nine-term former Democrat Robert Byrd, the longest serving U.S. Senator in history, was re-elected in 2006 with 64.4% of the vote. On June 28, 2010, Senator Byrd died at the age of 92, leaving this seat vacant. A special election to fill this seat was held in November 2010, which Democratic Governor Joe Manchin won with 53.5% of the vote. Manchin will be 65 years old in 2012.

Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito is the GOP favorite to run for the seat.[166]

Republicans retiring (2 seats)

Jon Kyl of Arizona

Main article: United States Senate election in Arizona, 2012

Three-term incumbent and Senate Minority Whip Republican Jon Kyl was re-elected in 2006 with 53% of the vote. He has announced he will not seek a fourth term in 2012, when he will be 70 years old.[1][167] Republican Representative Jeff Flake (AZ-6) announced in February 2011 that he will seek his party's nomination.[168]

It has been speculated[169][170] that Democratic Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords may run for the Senate seat. This is, of course, contingent upon her full recovery following the January 8th shooting in Tucson which saw her and 19 others wounded by gunfire, six of them fatally. Giffords has been seen as having the possibility of her attracting numerous moderate voters, both Republican and Democrat, and dominating the Democratic field in the event of a contentious primary. There has been no official campaign announcement by Giffords or her staff.

Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas

Main article: United States Senate election in Texas, 2012

Three-term incumbent Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison was re-elected in 2006 with 62% of the vote despite a poor overall climate for Republicans, who lost control of both chambers of Congress that year. In an interview with Texas Monthly published in December 2007, Hutchison stated that she would not seek re-election and might also resign from the Senate as early as 2009 to run for governor.[171] After losing the Republican gubernatorial primary to incumbent Governor Rick Perry, Hutchison announced that she would serve out the remainder of her term[172] and not run for re-election in 2012.[71]

For the Republicans, former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz, former Dallas mayor Tom Leppert, former Texas Secretary of the State Roger Williams, and Texas Railroad Commissioner Elizabeth Ames Jones are candidates.[173][174][175] Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst has also been mentioned as a possible contender for the seat.[176] Former Texas Railroad Commissioner Michael L. Williams, who was originally running for the seat, has decided to run for the U.S. Congress instead.[177]

John Sharp, the former Democratic state comptroller, has said he will run whenever the seat comes up for an election.[178] On May 11, retired U.S. Army General Ricardo Sanchez announced that he would run as a Democrat.[179]

Republicans seeking re-election (8 seats)

Richard Lugar of Indiana

Main article: United States Senate election in Indiana, 2012

Six-term incumbent Republican Richard Lugar was re-elected in 2006 with 87% of the vote, running unopposed by a Democrat. When the 111th Congress convened, Lugar became the most senior Republican in the Senate. On August 11, 2010, Lugar announced he expects to run for a 7th term in 2012.[21] He will be 80 years old in 2012. Lugar will be challenged in the primary by conservative state Treasurer Richard Mourdock, who criticizes Lugar for his willingness to vote with Democrats on key issues.[180]

Olympia Snowe of Maine

Main article: United States Senate election in Maine, 2012

Three-term incumbent Republican Olympia Snowe was re-elected in 2006 with 73% of the vote, the largest margin of any incumbent in 2006, other than Indiana Senator Richard Lugar (who ran without a Democratic opponent). She will be 65 years old in 2012.

A conservative challenger, Scott D'Amboise, is already running against Snowe in the Republican Primary.[181] Tea Party candidate Andrew Ian Dodge has also announced his intention to challenge Snowe in the Republican Primary.[182]

Scott Brown of Massachusetts

Main article: United States Senate election in Massachusetts, 2012

Eight-term former Democrat Ted Kennedy was re-elected in 2006 with 69% of the vote. However, he wasn't able to finish his term as he died just before midnight of August 25, 2009 at the age of 77, due to a malignant glioma, a form of brain cancer.

Paul G. Kirk was appointed as the interim Senator by Gov. Deval Patrick and was sworn in on September 25, 2009 to serve until a permanent Senator was elected in the special election on January 19, 2010.

Republican state legislator Scott Brown won the special election in an upset that generated national publicity and was sworn in on February 4, 2010. He is running for reelection to a full term in 2012.[31] He is the first Republican senator to be elected in Massachusetts since 1972. He won 52% of the vote in the special election.

Democrats who have announced their candidacies include Bob Massie, the 1994 Democratic nominee for Massachusetts lieutenant governor[183] City Year founder Alan Khazei [184] and Newton Mayor Setti Warren.[185] Potential Democratic candidates include Congressmen Mike Capuano, Stephen Lynch and Ed Markey and TARP chairman and Harvard Law School professor Elizabeth Warren.

Roger Wicker of Mississippi

Main article: United States Senate election in Mississippi, 2012

One-term incumbent Republican Roger Wicker was appointed after former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott announced on November 26, 2007 that he was going to resign by the end of 2007.[186] Wicker defeated former Governor Ronnie Musgrove in the 2008 special election and will be up for re-election in 2012.

Dean Heller of Nevada

Main article: United States Senate election in Nevada, 2012

Two-term former Republican John Ensign was re-elected in 2006 with 55% of the vote against Jack Carter, son of former Democratic President Jimmy Carter.

In June 2009, Ensign admitted to an affair that he had with a campaign staffer. Sources also reported blackmail with the husband of the women involved apparently asking Ensign for a substantial amount of money.[187] On July 14, 2009, Ensign announced that he was running for re-election[188] He changed his mind and announced on March 7, 2011 that he would not seek re-election. Amid his continuing ethics investigation relating to his affair and the effect it was having on his family, Ensign announced he would resign effective May 3, 2011.[189] Governor Brian Sandoval was obligated to appoint his successor.

Republican Congressman Dean Heller had announced he would run for the seat after Ensign announced he would retire and serve the remainder of the term. Governor Brian Sandoval appointed Heller as successor to serve out the remainder of Ensign's term after he announced his resignation.[190]

Democratic Congresswoman Shelley Berkley has announced she will run for the seat.

Bob Corker of Tennessee

Main article: United States Senate election in Tennessee, 2012

One-term incumbent Republican Bob Corker was elected in 2006 with 50.7% of the vote. He narrowly defeated then-Congressman Harold Ford, Jr. and has been raising money for re-election since. Country music singer Hank Williams, Jr. has expressed an interest in challenging Corker for the GOP nomination in 2012.[191]

Corker set up "the Bob Corker for Senate 2012 committee" on Nov. 8, 2006, or one day after winning a six-year term.[192]

Orrin Hatch of Utah

Main article: United States Senate election in Utah, 2012

Six-term incumbent and former Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Republican Orrin Hatch was re-elected in 2006 with 62% of the vote. He will be 78 years old in 2012, and has announced he will run for re-election. Hatch has no formally-announced opponents, but Senator Bob Bennett was ousted by the Republican Party in their 2010 state convention, receiving just 25% of the convention delegate votes. Though Hatch remains popular with Utahns in general, he is viewed by many in the Utah Republican Party as too moderate, and many names are being floated as potential challengers.[80]

John Barrasso of Wyoming

Main article: United States Senate election in Wyoming, 2012

One-term incumbent Republican John Barrasso was appointed to the Senate in 2007 after the death of Republican Craig L. Thomas and won a special election in 2008 to complete Thomas's term.

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