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* Senator [[Barbara Boxer]] of California
* Senator [[Barbara Boxer]] of California
* Governor [[Phil Bredesen]] of Tennessee
* Governor [[Phil Bredesen]] of Tennessee
* Former President [[Jimmy Carter]] of Georgia
* Former Governor [[Howard Dean]] of Vermont
* Former Governor [[Howard Dean]] of Vermont
* Senator [[Christopher Dodd]] of Connecticut
* Senator [[Christopher Dodd]] of Connecticut

Revision as of 19:43, 27 March 2006

Template:Future election

Presidential electoral votes by state

The U.S. presidential election of 2008 is scheduled to occur on November 4, 2008. The election will determine the 44th President of the United States[1]. The allocation of electoral votes to each state will remain the same for this election as it was for the election in 2004, relying on the 2000 Census. The winner will be sworn in on January 20, 2009.

The Incumbents

In 2008, President George W. Bush will be prohibited from seeking a third term by Amendment XXII to the U.S. Constitution. In the three most recent eight-year administrations, the incumbent Vice President has subsequently run for President:

However, current Vice President Dick Cheney announced in 2001 that he would never run for President, a statement he reiterated as recently as 2004: while appearing on Fox News Sunday, Cheney stated: "I will say just as hard as I possibly know how to say ... 'If nominated, I will not run,' 'If elected, I will not serve,' or not only 'no,' but 'Hell, no,' I've got my plans laid out. I'm going to serve this President for the next four years, and then I'm out of here." Cheney is known not to be in particularly good health: a former heavy smoker, he has had four heart attacks and repeated surgery on his heart and circulatory system, and he has persistent atherosclerotic disease.

The 2008 race will therefore be a non-incumbent or "open seat" election in which a sitting President is not a candidate. Furthermore, assuming Cheney serves his full term and does not run, the 2008 race will be the first time since 1928 that neither the sitting President nor the sitting Vice President is a candidate for President. (Note that while the 1952 general election between Dwight D. Eisenhower and Adlai Stevenson also did not include a sitting President or Vice President, sitting Vice President Alben Barkley had unsuccessfully campaigned for the Democratic presidential nomination.)

Should Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice (who has also denied any desire to seek the presidency, though she is the current frontrunner in some public opinion polls) receive the Republican party's nomination in 2008, she would revive an old practice that was the norm for the first fifty years of United States history. In early tradition, the Secretary of State post was traditionally the stepping stone to the Presidency. Many Commanders in Chief of the late 18th and early 19th centuries held Dr. Rice's current post before being elected, including Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, James Monroe, John Quincy Adams, Martin Van Buren, and James Buchanan. The Secretary of State post remains the primary Cabinet-level office to succeed the Chief Executive in the presidential line of succession.

The Frontrunners

Though it is quite early on in the political process of the 2008 presidential election, names are already beginning to appear as potential candidates. While this information will most likely undergo changes as new public opinion data becomes available, the anticipated frontrunners for the major political parties in America are as follows:

Democrats

Based on all of the major public opinion polls as provided by the Opinion polling for the 2008 U.S. presidential election section, on average, the top ten Democratic frontrunners currently appear to be:

Average of All Major Polls

Democrat %
Hillary Clinton 38.48%
John Kerry 15.71%
John Edwards 14.10%
Al Gore 11.83%
Joe Biden 5.75%
Wesley Clark 4.00%
Bill Richardson 3.00%
Russ Feingold 2.75%
Evan Bayh 2.41%
Mark Warner 2.17%

The Latest Poll

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll - conducted Feb 14-15, 2006

Democrat %
Hillary Clinton 43%
Al Gore 12%
John Edwards 11%
John Kerry 10%
Unsure 10%
Joe Biden 4%
Wesley Clark 4%
Mark Warner 3%
Evan Bayh 2%
Wouldn't Vote 1%

Republicans

Based on all of the major public opinion polls as provided by the Opinion polling for the 2008 U.S. presidential election section, on average, the top ten Republican frontrunners currently appear to be:

Average of All Major Polls

Republican %
Condoleezza Rice 26.10%
Rudolph Giuliani 22.15%
John McCain 19.50%
Jeb Bush 8.07%
George Allen 7.95%
Newt Gingrich 7.78%
Fred Thompson 4.33%
Bill Frist 4.15%
Mitt Romney 3.07%
Rick Santorum 1.83%
Tom Tancredo 1.83%

The Latest Poll

Diageo/Hotline Poll - conducted Mar 16-19, 2006

Republican %
John McCain 25%
Rudolph Giuliani 23%
Unsure 22%
Newt Gingrich 7%
Bill Frist 5%
Mitt Romney 4%
None Of These 4%
George Allen 3%
George Pataki 2%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Tom Tancredo 1%
Wouldn't Vote 1%

Timeline

Early fundraising and primaries

Candidates of the Constitution, Democratic, Green, Libertarian, Republican, Socialist and other parties have begun making their plans known as early as 2005, and candidates will emerge during 2006 and 2007 because of the long lead time for fund-raising. Federal election laws require the reporting of funds raised for the primary elections, and in the past the media has anointed "front-runners" on the basis of reported fund-raising totals. For example, the media treated Howard Dean as the front-runner going into the 2004 cycle, although he was initially considered a long-shot.

Delegates to the national party conventions are selected through direct primary elections, or state caucuses and state conventions. Beginning in January 2008, the first delegate-selection contests will be held in Iowa (caucus), New Hampshire (primary) and possibly other states. The process continues through June, but in previous cycles, including 2004, the Democratic and Republican candidates were effectively chosen by the March primaries, because the leading candidates had collected enough committed delegates to win in the national convention. Most third parties select delegates to their national conventions through state conventions.

Later events

Speculated Candidates

While it is rare for candidates to officially declare their candidacy prior to late in the year preceding the presidential election (in this case, 2007), some potential candidates may have expressed their interest in running, and are listed below. At this early stage, many of the strongest candidates might have yet to emerge, and these lists include few of the political figures who excite speculation amongst political activists, insiders, and media commentators. The fact that the current leading candidates for both major parties are female presents a possibility that the 2008 election will result in the first female President of the United States.

Democratic Party

Main article: Potential Democratic candidates in the 2008 U.S. presidential election

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy

Other potential candidates

Republican Party

Main article: Potential Republican candidates in the 2008 U.S. presidential election

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy

Other potential candidates

Third parties

Main article: Potential third party candidates in the 2008 U.S. presidential election

Constitution Party

Potential candidates

Green Party

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy

Other potential candidates

Libertarian Party

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy

  • Lance Brown, Libertarian activist; candidacy announced in 1994.

Potential candidates

Prohibition Party

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy

Other potential candidates

Reform Party

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy

Socialist Party USA

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy

None as of yet.

Other potential candidates

Independents

Potential candidates

Opinion polling, prediction markets

Further information: [[:Opinion polling for the 2008 U.S. presidential election]]

Tradesports, an online betting company with active political futures markets, lists candidates bettors predict are the most likely to be nominated in 2008.[3]

USA Button Poll has been successfully picking candidates since the 1980s by linking votes with buttons purchased. Shows current polling data and gives opportunity to purchase buttons from many different potential candidates. [4]

Candidate predictions

Dick Morris, political commentator, best-selling author, and former Clinton adviser, published a book in 2005 entitled "Condi vs. Hillary" (subtitled The Next Great Presidential Race) (ISBN 0060839139), in which he predicts that U.S. Secretary of State Dr. Condoleezza Rice will be the Republican nominee in 2008, while NY Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton will be the Democratic nominee. Morris also predicts that while Dr. Rice herself will not actively pursue the office, a grassroots draft movement (in the style of the Draft-Eisenhower movement in 1952) will see to it that Dr. Rice's name appears on the primary ballots and that Dr. Rice, without any campaigning on her own part, will receive the GOP nomination. There is already a large Draft-Rice movement, the most prominent group being a 527 political organization called Americans for Dr. Rice, which has accumulated thousands of members, already begun fundraising, and has aired radio and television ads in several key campaign states. There is also a group called VoteHillary.org seeking to persuade Sen. Clinton to run in 2008.

Bob Woodward, in 2005, stated that Cheney is a "serious darkhorse" candidate for the GOP nomination in 2008[5] and later predicted that the nominees in 2008 would be Hillary Clinton for the Democrats and Dick Cheney for the Republicans [6]. Cheney later stated however that even if he were offered the Republican nomination in 2008, he would not accept it.

Notes

  1. ^ The person elected in 2008 will be the 44th President, provided current President George W. Bush serves the full remainder of his term, which expires at 12:00:00 EST (17:00:00 UTC) on Tuesday, January 20, 2009.
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