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;Withdrawal
;Withdrawal
On 14 January 2012, he withdrew his candidacy in protest against the [[Supreme Council of The Armed Forces]]' alleged usurpation of power as<ref>http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16561273</ref> he criticised the road map of transition to a civilian government following the 2011 revolution. ElBaradei called it a "travesty" to elect a president before a new constitution has been drafted.<ref>{{Citation |title=ElBaradei: Egypt current roadmap to civilian govt is a travesty |work=Egypt.com |date=18 February 2012 |url=http://news.egypt.com/english/permalink/85501.html}}</ref>
On 14 January 2012, he withdrew his candidacy in protest against the [[Supreme Council of the Armed Forces]]' alleged usurpation of power as<ref>http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16561273</ref> he criticised the road map of transition to a civilian government following the 2011 revolution. ElBaradei called it a "travesty" to elect a president before a new constitution has been drafted.<ref>{{Citation |title=ElBaradei: Egypt current roadmap to civilian govt is a travesty |work=Egypt.com |date=18 February 2012 |url=http://news.egypt.com/english/permalink/85501.html}}</ref>


== Potential candidates ==
== Potential candidates ==

Revision as of 18:19, 11 March 2012

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A presidential election will be held in Egypt on 23 and 24 May 2012 (with a run-off on 16 and 17 June 2012, if necessary).[1][needs update] It will be the second presidential election in Egypt's history with more than one candidate, following the 2005 election.

Rules

The rules for the election were released on 30 January 2012. Candidates have to be born in Egypt, may not hold dual nationality and may not be married to a foreigner; to be nominated, they require the support of 30 MPs or 30,000 voters.[2] According to the electoral committee, the formal registration process for candidates will start on 10 March.[3][needs update]

Declared candidates

Declared presidential candidates
File:حازم فى لقطة بمؤتمر.jpg File:Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh - World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2012.jpg.jpg File:Mohammed Salim Al-Awa.jpg
Amr Moussa Hazem Salah Abu Ismail Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh Mohammad Salim Al-Awa Bothaina Kamel Ahmed Shafik Khaled Ali
The ex-Secretary-General of the League of Arab States and former Foreign Minister. A Salafist[4] and ultra-conservative figure.[5] and television host. Secretary general of the Arab Medical Union and former member of the guidance bureau of the Muslim Brotherhood Ex-Secretary General of the International Union of Muslim Scholars and head of the Egyptian Association for Culture and Dialogue Political activist present in Tahrir Square during the 2011 revolution. Air Marshal and last prime minister under Hosni Mubarak. Lawyer and labor activist. Former head of the Egyptian Center for Economic and Social Rights (ECESR), founding member of Hisham Mubarak Law Center (HMLC)

Amr Moussa

When asked about the rumors that he might run for the 2012 presidential elections, Amr Moussa refused to rule out the possibility of running for the office, leaving the door open to expectations. He argued that, "It's the right of every citizen that has the capacity and efficiency to aspire to any political office that would allow him to contribute to the service of his nation".[6] He further stated to the press that the qualities required of the President also apply to Gamal Mubarak, arguing that the citizenship, rights and obligations which apply to himself can also be applied to Gamal.[7] He also expressed appreciation for "the confidence expressed by many people when they talk about his candidacy for the Egyptian presidency, and expressed that the message reached him.".[8]

On 27 February 2011 he announced he would be running for president saying "God willing, I will be one of them."[9]

Hazem Salah Abu Ismail

Hazem Salah Abu-Ismail is an independent politician, lawyer, and a thought leader in Islamic, Political, and Public Affairs. Mr. Abu-Ismail has published several legal and constitutional research papers specializing in education, administration and economics as well as forensic science. A prominent lawyer, the head of a well known law firm in downtown Cairo, has pleaded many well known court cases and significant political issues. Mr. Abu-Ismail specializes in defense law and is the author of a published reference for legal defense, appellate court, and constitutional law.

Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh

Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh, a Muslim Brotherhood figure popular with Egyptian youths, declared his candidacy in May 2011. He was expelled from the Brotherhood for this decision on 20 June of that year, as it contradicted an earlier Guidance Bureau decision that the Brotherhood would not put forward a candidate in 2011.[10]

Mohammed Salim Al-Awa

Mohammad Salim Al-Awa, an Islamic thinker, declared his candidacy on 14 June 2011.[11] The fact that Al-Awa and Aboul Fotouh belong to the same school of thought have led to press speculation about vote-splitting and the possibility of their uniting behind a single candidate. Aboul Fotouh has recognized this possibility.[10]

Bothaina Kamel

Bothaina Kamel, a media personality and pro-democracy activist, announced her candidacy in April 2011.[12]

Ahmed Shafik

Ahmed Shafik officially launched his presidential campaign on 2 November 2011. He was the last Prime Minister appointed by Hosni Mubarak after the begin of the 2011 revolution in January. He resigned only three weeks after the deposition of the longterm president.[13] Shafik claims to be on good terms with the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces.[14]

Khaled Ali

Khaled Ali announced his campaign on 27 February 2012, the youngest candidate to enter the race. Ali is a prominent Egyptian lawyer and activist, known for his work advocating reform of corruption in the government and private sector and his promotion of social justice and labor rights. Al-Ahram Weekly called him a" legendary anti-corruption crusader",[15] and CounterPunch described him as "Egypt’s best-known counselor and defender of independent unions and worker protests."[16] In 2011 he won the “Egyptian Corruption Fighter” award.[17]

Many of Ali’s supporters see him as filling the void left by Mohamed ElBaradei's withdrawal.[18] Ali is not well-known to the majority of Egyptians, and even those who are familiar with him have tended to be surprised by his decision to run. His profile doesn’t compare to the other "star" candidates in the race, wrote Al-Akhbar English.[18] Ali's lack of experience as a politician is a concern. Many, even in the revolutionary movement, remain skeptical about his candidacy.[18] Ali's candidacy has not been seen to have a high likelihood of success. Critics argue that his chance of winning is low, and are further concerned that he could split the vote in a way that would sway the election towards representatives of the prior regime.[19]

Socialist Popular Alliance Party and Egyptian Socialists members told Egypt Independent that they are seriously considering backing Ali’s candidacy. “Up until now, the situation is unclear. Khaled may be our choice. Some are proposing a potential partnership between Khaled Ali and Abouel Fotouh [where Ali can run as his deputy]," said Marwa Farouk, a member of the Popular Alliance.[20] No party has endorsed Ali yet.[18]

Withdrawn candidates

Mohamed ElBaradei

In November 2009 amidst the political controversy over the then prospective 2011 presidential election and the constitutional impediments placed in the faces of candidates under the amended Article 76 in the 2007 constitution and amidst speculation about then-President Hosni Mubarak's son Gamal running for the post, Mohamed ElBaradei decided to respond to the continuous pressing from people who asked him to run for the 2011 election.[21][22][23] ElBaradei said in a statement sent from his office in Vienna to Al-Shorouk newspaper that "He did not announce willingness or unwillingness to participate in the upcoming presidential election... and that he will clear his position on the presidency after November".[24] His office manager added:

Dr. ElBaradei is the Director General of International Atomic Energy Agency until the end of November. Therefore, he is currently devoted to his work and to address the important issues and topics that need to be addressed by the IAEA. So he did not take any decision regarding his future which will be decided in light of developments of the next phase.

At the same time, the New Wafd Party and other opposition political forces have announced that they are ready to support ElBaradei if he decided to run for the election. However, Mohamed ElBaradei stated that if he decides to run for the 2011 elections, he prefers to run as an Independent Candidate, rather than running as a candidate of any of the existing political parties.[25]

On 24 February 2010, ElBaradei met with several opposition leaders and notable intellects at his home in Cairo. The meeting was concluded with an announcement for the formation of a new non-party-political movement called "National Association for Change". The movement aims for general reforms in the political scene and mainly burke the Constitutional article#76 which places restrictions on true free presidential elections especially when it comes to independent candidates. Worth mentioning is that the banned political group the Muslim Brotherhood were represented by one of their key figures who attended the meeting however their stand in accepting a non-member of their group as a candidate is yet unclear. It is also unknown whether Amr Moussa the head of the Arab League who met with Elbaradei a day earlier will be part of the new movement.[26]

Withdrawal

On 14 January 2012, he withdrew his candidacy in protest against the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces' alleged usurpation of power as[27] he criticised the road map of transition to a civilian government following the 2011 revolution. ElBaradei called it a "travesty" to elect a president before a new constitution has been drafted.[28]

Potential candidates

Nabil Elaraby

In mid-February 2012, the two major newspapers Al-Ahram and Al-Masry Al-Youm reported that it were likely that Nabil Elaraby, incumbent secretary general of the Arab League will be announced candidate. He could become the favourite candidate of both the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces and the influential Muslim Brotherhood with its affiliated Freedom and Justice Party, having the strongest bloc in parliament. Elaraby however hesitates to enter the race. He could merely candidate for a transitional phase with a restricted term of office.[29] In case of his candidacy, Elaraby could also enjoy the backing of financiers in the Arab states of the Gulf.[30] Elaraby however denied negotiations with any political forces or being chosen by foreign powers. Whereas he declared that a new constitution defining the executive powers should be finalized before the presidential election.[31]

Ayman Nour

Ayman Nour is the founder of Al-Ghad Party, leader of the Ghad El-Thawra Party and former candidate in the 2005 presidential elections in which he emerged as runner-up to the winning President Hosni Mubarak.

Ayman Nour was jailed in 2006 few months after the presidential elections when he was convicted in charges of forgery. He was later removed from the presidency of Al-Ghad Party. In February 2009, he was released from prison under an amnesty due to health reasons. It has been alleged that his release from prison was due to U.S. President Obama demanding his release as a condition to meet with Mubarak.[32]

Ayman Nour may not be able to run for the 2012 presidential elections because of being an ex-convict and a former prisoner.

Opinion Polls

The first opinion poll conducted in Egypt post Mubarak, was conducted by YouGov.[33] According to the YouGov survey of 1871 Egyptians between 15–20 February, Almost half of all Egyptians (49%) believed that Amr Moussa, the secretary general of the Arab League, was the man most capable of leading the next Egyptian Government. Other potential Presidents, Ahmed Zewill (13%) & Ayman Nour, Mubarak’s 2005 Presidential rival (1%), trailed Moussa by a huge margin. Almost 1 in 10 (9%) believed former Vice President, Omar Sulieman, should be Egypt’s new leader. The majority (81%) of Egyptians believed that the army would facilitate free and fair elections.

An April 2011 survey of 1,000 Egyptians by Pew Research Center’s Global Attitudes Project with a margin of error of four percentage points found that the most popular Egyptian politician was Amr Moussa with 41% of Egyptians viewing him as "very favourable," followed by Ayman Nour with 32% and Mohamed ElBaradei with 25%. Some 75% had a favourable view of the Muslim Brotherhood, but only 17% believed they should lead the next government.[34]

A poll conducted during the 2011 protests asking "who do you think should be the next President of Egypt?" showed Moussa in the lead, with 26% of respondents naming him.[35]

Conducted/
Published 		Polling Organisation/
Client 		Sample size Amr Moussa Ahmed Shafik Mohamed ElBaradei Omar Suleiman Abu Ismail Salim Al-Awa Hamdeen Sabahi (DP) Ayman Nour (Ghad El-Thawra Party) Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh FM Mohamed Tantawi Ahmed Zewail Essam Sharaf other undecided
Feb 2011 YouGov 1871 49% – 2% 9% – – 1% 1% – - 13% - 11% 13%
9-20 March 2011 IPI[36] 615 37% – 2% 5% – – – 1% – 16% 12% 7% 2% 14%
Jun 2011 IPI[37] 800 32% – 2% – – – 3% 3% – 8% - 16% 18% -
Jun/Jul 2011 Newsweek/
Daily Beast[38]		 1008 16% 12% 12% 4% – 6% 2% 4% 5% 5% – – 8% 27%
" (3-way race) " 47% – 19% – – – – – 16% – – – – 18%
Aug 2011 ACPSS[39] 2,400 44% 12% 4% 9% 5.2% 5% 5% 6% 2% – – – 7.8% 45%
Oct 2011 Press TV/
Synovate[40]		 1,030 42% 15% 13% – – – – – – – – – 30% –
Oct 2011 ACPSS[41] 2,400 44.8% 13.2% 3.5% 10.8% 5.2% 4.7% 5.7% 5.0% 1.6% – – – 5.5% ?
Nov 2011 ACPSS[42] 2,400 38.9% 8.5% 2.9% 6.6% 5.7% 5.7% 4.0% 3.2% 1.5% – – – 24.5% ?

See also

References

  1. ^ http://www.boston.com/news/world/middleeast/articles/2012/02/29/egypt_sets_may_23_24_for_presidential_election/
  2. ^ http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16785829
  3. ^ http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/33870/Egypt/Politics-/Official-Presidential-candidacy-registration-proce.aspx
  4. ^ "Salafi presidential hopeful wants Shura Council abolished", Egypt Independent, 26 January 2012, retrieved 18 February 2012
  5. ^ Mayton, Joseph (11 February 2012), "Egypt's presidential hopeful Abu Ismail says Islam gives no freedom", Bikya Masr, retrieved 18 February 2012
  6. ^ "Amr Moussa opens the way for speculation about his candidacy for the presidency of Egypt". CNN. Retrieved 31 January 2011. Template:Ar icon
  7. ^ "Amr Moussa did not rule out running for the presidency of Egypt". Reuters. 20 October 2009. Retrieved 31 January 2011. Template:Ar icon
  8. ^ "Amr Mousa to (Al-Shorouk): Every qualified citizen has the right to aspire to serve the country and become the president". Shorouknews.com. Retrieved 31 January 2011.
  9. ^ "Amr Moussa to contest Egyptian poll". Al Jazeera English. 27 February 2011. Retrieved 12 March 2011.
  10. ^ a b El-Hennawy, Noha (21 June 2011). "Expelled Brotherhood leader clarifies his political position". Al-Masry Al-Youm.
  11. ^ "Islamic thinker decides to run for president". Al-Masry Al-Youm. 14 June 2011.
  12. ^ Hassan, Abdalla F. Muslim Woman Seeks Egyptian Presidency New York Times. 15 June 2011.
  13. ^ "Mubarak's PM launches presidential campaign", Egypt Independent, 3 November 2011, retrieved 18 February 2012 {{citation}}: |first= missing |last= (help)
  14. ^ "Presidential candidate stresses his good relations with SCAF", Egypt Independent, 22 December 2011, retrieved 18 February 2012
  15. ^ "Al-Ahram Weekly | Economy | 'Topple their debts'". Weekly.ahram.org.eg. 9 November 2011. Retrieved 3 March 2012.
  16. ^ "The Unfinished Revolution " Counterpunch: Tells the Facts, Names the Names". Counterpunch. 21 February 2011. Retrieved 3 March 2012.
  17. ^ "Labor lawyer, activist becomes Egypt's youngest candidate". Bikya Masr. Retrieved 3 March 2012.
  18. ^ a b c d "Meet Khaled Ali: President Against Odds". Al Akhbar English. Retrieved 3 March 2012.
  19. ^ "Youngest presidential hopeful promises to achieve social justice". Thedailynewsegypt.com. Retrieved 3 March 2012.
  20. ^ "Egypt.com News - Egypt News - Lefts presidential candidate yet to emerge". News.egypt.com. 21 February 2012. Retrieved 3 March 2012.
  21. ^ "Egyptian opposition wants ElBaradei to run for president". Tehran Times. 8 October 2009. Retrieved 31 January 2011.
  22. ^ "Leading News Resource of Pakistan". Daily Times. 7 October 2009. Retrieved 31 January 2011.
  23. ^ Earth Times Staff (20 October 2009). "Arab League chief refuses to rule out Egypt presidential bid". Earth Times News. Retrieved 31 January 2011.
  24. ^ "ElBaradei will clear his position on the presidency after November". Shorouknews.com. Retrieved 31 January 2011.
  25. ^ "ElBaradei excludes running in the presidential elections in Egypt as a candidate of any political party". Reuters. 10 December 2009. Retrieved 31 January 2011. Template:Ar icon
  26. ^ "ElBaradei to form 'national association for change'". BBC News. 24 February 2010. Retrieved 31 January 2011.
  27. ^ http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16561273
  28. ^ "ElBaradei: Egypt current roadmap to civilian govt is a travesty", Egypt.com, 18 February 2012
  29. ^ Ezzat, Dina (17 February 2012), "SCAF, Brotherhood to back El-Arabi in looming Egypt's presidential polls: Sources", Ahram Online, retrieved 17 February 2012
  30. ^ "Newspaper: SCAF with MB and liberals for Al-Arabi as president", Aswat Masriya, 16 February 2012, retrieved 18 February 2012
  31. ^ "Araby denies negotiations over presidential run", Egypt.com, 18 February 2012
  32. ^ Macleod, Scott (19 February 2009). "Egypt Frees a Dissident: A Gesture for Obama?". TIME.
  33. ^ "First Egyptian Opinion Poll" (PDF). Conducted by YouGov. Retrieved 1 November 2011.
  34. ^ Arabian Business Egyptians back sharia law, end of Israel treaty, poll shows, 26 April 2011
  35. ^ "Phone Survey of Cairo and Alexandria". Scribd Middle East Polls. 24 June 2010. Retrieved 12 March 2011.
  36. ^ International Peace Institute Poll, conducted by Charney Research, April 2011
  37. ^ http://www.charneyresearch.com/pdf/2011June_IPI_Egypt_Poll_final_press_release.pdf
  38. ^ http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/07/26/egypt-political-poll-muslim-brotherhood-influence-troubles-for-west.html
  39. ^ National Voter Survey in Egypt, Danish Institute for Parties and Democracy, dipd.dk. Retrieved on 30 August 2011.
  40. ^ Egypt eyes pro-Palestinian candidates, PressTV, 4 October 2011, retrieved 5 October 2011
  41. ^ 2nd National Voter Survey in Egypt, Danish-Egyptian Dialogue Institute (DEDI), dedi.org.eg. Retrieved on 13 October 2011.
  42. ^ 3rd National Voter Survey in Egypt, Danish-Egyptian Dialogue Institute (DEDI), dedi.org.eg. Retrieved on 12 November 2011

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