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Revision as of 01:09, 28 May 2012

United States presidential election, 2012
← 2008 November 6, 2012 2016 →
All 538 electoral votes of the Electoral College
270 electoral votes needed to win
 
Nominee Barack Obama
(presumptive) 		Mitt Romney
(presumptive)
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Illinois Massachusetts
Running mate Joe Biden
(presumptive) 		TBD
 
Nominee Gary Johnson TBD
Party Libertarian Green
Home state New Mexico
Running mate James Gray TBD
Incumbent President

Barack Obama
Democratic



2012 U.S. presidential election
Democratic Party
Republican Party
Minor parties
Related races
← 2008 2012 2016 →

Template:Wikinewshas

The United States presidential election of 2012 is the next United States presidential election, to be held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. It will be the 57th quadrennial presidential election in which presidential electors, who will actually elect the President and the Vice President of the United States on December 17, 2012, will be chosen. Incumbent President Barack Obama is running for a second and final term during this election.[1] His presumptive Republican challenger, according to the Republican National Committee (RNC), is former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.[2]

As specified in the Constitution, the 2012 presidential election will coincide with the United States Senate elections where one-third of the Senators will face re-election (33 Class I seats), and the United States House of Representatives elections (which occurs every two years) to elect the members for the 113th Congress. Eleven gubernatorial elections and many elections for state legislatures will also take place at the same time.

Electoral college changes

The 2010 Census changed the Electoral College vote apportionment for the Presidential elections from 2012 to 2020 in the states mapped and listed below.[3]

States won by Democrats
in 2000, 2004, and 2008

  • Illinois −1
  • Massachusetts −1
  • Michigan −1
  • New Jersey −1
  • New York −2
  • Pennsylvania −1
  • Washington +1

States won by Republicans
in 2000, 2004, and 2008

  • Arizona +1
  • Georgia +1
  • Louisiana −1
  • Missouri −1
  • South Carolina +1
  • Texas +4
  • Utah +1

Remaining states

  • Florida (Democratic in 2008, Republican in 2000 and 2004) +2
  • Iowa (Democratic in 2000 and 2008, Republican in 2004) −1
  • Nevada (Democratic in 2008, Republican in 2000 and 2004) +1
  • Ohio (Democratic in 2008, Republican in 2000 and 2004) −2
Changes from the 2000 to the 2010 census
The result of the 2008 presidential election

Eight states (Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Texas, Utah and Washington) gained votes, due to reapportionment based on the 2010 Census. Similarly ten states (Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania) lost votes.

In the political climate of 2011, this would give the Democratic Party a net loss of six electoral votes in states won by Al Gore, John Kerry and Barack Obama in the past three presidential elections, rendering the party a national total of 242. Conversely, the Republican Party will achieve a net gain of six electoral votes in states won by George W. Bush and John McCain in the past three presidential elections, rendering the GOP a national total of 181. Votes allocated to remaining states (i.e., those where the majority voted for both Democratic and Republican candidates during the last three presidential elections) remain unchanged from the national total of 115.

In 2011, several states enacted new laws that the Democratic Party attacked as attempts to improve the Republican Party's presidential prospects. Florida, Georgia, Ohio,[4] Tennessee and West Virginia made their early voting periods shorter. Florida and Iowa barred all ex-felons from voting. Kansas, South Carolina,[5] Tennessee, Texas[6] and Wisconsin[7] began requiring voters to identify themselves with government-issued IDs before they could cast their ballots. Obama, the NAACP, and the Democratic Party fought against many of the new state laws,[8] and former President Bill Clinton denounced it, saying, "There has never been in my lifetime, since we got rid of the poll tax and all the Jim Crow burdens on voting, the determined effort to limit the franchise that we see today".[9] He said the moves would effectively disenfranchise core voter blocs that trend liberal, college students, Blacks, and Latinos.[10][11] Rolling Stone magazine criticized the American Legislative Exchange Council for lobbying in states to bring about these laws.[8] The Obama campaign fought against the Ohio law, pushing for a petition and statewide referendum to repeal it in time for the 2012 election.[12]

Pennsylvania proposed a new plan that would change its representation in the electoral college from a winner-take-all model to a district-by-district model.[13] The Governorship and both houses of its congress were Republican-controlled, and the move was viewed by some as an affront to Obama's re-election effort.[14][15][16]

Nominations

Main articles: United States presidential primary and United States presidential nominating convention

Each of the two major parties hosts candidates who go through a nomination process to determine the presidential nominee for that party. The nomination process consists of primaries and caucuses, held by the 50 states, as well as Guam, Puerto Rico, Washington, D.C., U.S. Virgin Islands, American Samoa, and the Northern Mariana Islands. The winner of each of these primary elections may receive delegates either proportional to the percentage of the popular vote the candidate received in each state, winner-take-all or some combination of the two extremes. Additionally, high-ranking party members known as superdelegates each receive one vote in the convention. Whichever candidate has the majority of the delegates at the end of the primary elections is designated the presumptive nominee until he or she is formally nominated and endorsed for the presidency by his or her political party. This is done by the aforementioned delegates for each party.

Democratic Party nomination

Main articles: Democratic Party presidential candidates, 2012; Democratic Party presidential primaries, 2012; and 2012 Democratic National Convention

Candidates

The following have each received at least a cumulative 10,000 votes in the primary process:

Primaries

With an incumbent President running for reelection against token opposition, the race for the Democratic nomination was largely uneventful. A few of the primary challengers surpassed the President's vote total in individual counties in two of the seven contested primaries, though none made a significant impact in the delegate count. Running unopposed everywhere else, President Obama became the Democratic presumptive nominee on April 3, 2012 by securing the minimum number of pledged delegates needed to clinch the nomination.[29][30]

Republican Party nomination

Main articles: Republican Party presidential candidates, 2012; Republican Party presidential primaries, 2012; and 2012 Republican National Convention

Candidates

Formally declared candidates that either participated in debates or attained ballot status in primaries and/or caucuses in at least three states, and are still active candidates for the GOP nomination:

Withdrawn candidates

Previously declared candidates that either participated in debates or attained ballot status in primaries and/or caucuses in at least three states:

2010–11

Main articles: Prelude to the Republican presidential primaries, 2012 and Republican Party presidential debates, 2012

The few candidates having considerable name recognition who entered the race for the Republican presidential nomination in the early stages of the primary campaign included: US Representative and former Libertarian nominee Ron Paul, Former Governors Tim Pawlenty, who was a VP prospect in 2008, Mitt Romney, who had done reasonably well that cycle, and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich. The rest were locally notable but nationally unknown. The first debate took place on May 5, 2011 in Greenville, South Carolina, with businessman Herman Cain, former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson, Paul, Pawlenty, and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum participating. There was another about a month later, with Gingrich, Romney, former Utah Governor John Huntsman and Rep. Michele Bachmann participating and Johnson excluded.

The first major event of the campaign was the Ames Straw Poll, which took place in Iowa. There was a debate followed by the straw poll. Pawlenty did poorly, driving him out of the race, as was Thaddeus McCotter, who was refused entrance into the debate even though he had paid the price of admission. Bachmann won the straw poll, and this was the acme of her campaign.

A segment of the conservative primary electorate found Romney to be too liberal or moderate for their tastes, and a number of "anti-Romneys" were put forward, like Donald Trump, Sarah Palin, and Texas Governor Rick Perry, the last of whom ultimately decided to run. He did poorly in subsequent debates, and Cain and Gingrich came into the fore.

Due to a number of scandals, Cain withdrew just before the end of the year, after getting on the ballot in several states. Johnson, who had only been able to get into one other debate, withdrew in order to seek the Libertarian nomination.

Before Super Tuesday

For the first time in modern GOP primary history, three different candidates won the first three contests. Santorum, who had been running a one-state campaign in Iowa, narrowly won in that state's caucuses by a handful of votes over Romney (who was thought to have won the caucuses before a recount).Bachmann, who did poorly, withdrew. Romney went on to win New Hampshire, but lost South Carolina to Gingrich. From there, Santorum took his campaign national and carried three more states before Super Tuesday, while Romney carried seven. Huntsman withdrew after coming in third in New Hampshire, and Perry withdrew when polls showed him doing poorly in South Carolina. Buddy Roemer, who had been excluded from the debates and most primaries, left the race as well to pursue an independent run.

Super Tuesday

Main article: Super Tuesday, 2012

The Super Tuesday primaries took place on March 6. With ten states voting and 391 delegates being allocated, it had only about half the potential impact of its 2008 predecessor. Romney carried six states and Santorum three, while Gingrich won his home state of Georgia.

Romney secures front runner status

Throughout the rest of March, 266 delegates were allocated in 12 events, including all of the territorial contests and the first local conventions that allocated delegates (Wyoming's county conventions). Santorum won Kansas and three Southern primaries, but was unable to make any gain on Romney, who remained the frontrunner after securing more than half of the delegates allocated in March.

On April 10, Santorum suspended his campaign, leaving Mitt Romney as the undisputed front-runner for the presidential nomination and Gingrich to claim he is the "last conservative" still actively campaigning for the nomination.[62] Gingrich then withdrew on May 1 after a spokesman announced on April 25 that he would do so.[63] Paul and political consultant Fred Karger remained in the race.

Third party candidates

Main article: United States third party and independent presidential candidates, 2012

It takes 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. Following parties have gained access to at least one state ballot.
Parties with multiple candidates listed have not chosen a nominee yet. Names of official nominees appear in bold.

Ballot access to more than 270 electoral votes

Libertarian Party
Party Ballot Access:[67] Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Wyoming - (331 Electoral)
Further information: Libertarian Party (United States) and 2012 Libertarian National Convention
Green Party
Party Ballot Access:[73] Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, DC, Florida, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, South Carolina, Tennessee, Utah - (293 Electoral)
Further information: Green Party of the United States and 2012 Green National Convention
Americans Elect
  • No candidates met the requirements to enter into the Americans Elect online caucus, so on May 17 the primary process came to an end without a nominee. Nevertheless, the leaders of the organization have not yet ruled out the possibility of running a viable candidate for president on its centrist platform if such a person can be found.[74] At that point, the organization had gained ballot access in 29 states with more than 270 electoral votes.
Party Ballot Access:[75] Alabama, Arizona, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, Wisconsin, Wyoming - (275 Electoral)
Further information: Americans Elect

Ballot access to less than 270 electoral votes

Constitution Party
Party Ballot Access:[79] Colorado, Florida, Idaho, Michigan, Missouri, Mississippi, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Oregon, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, Wisconsin, Wyoming - (152 Electoral)
Further information: Constitution Party (United States) and 2012 Constitution Party National Convention
Reform Party USA
Party Ballot Access:[87] Florida, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi - (49 Electoral)
Further information: Reform Party of the United States of America
America's Party
Party Ballot Access:[90] Florida - (29 Electoral)
Further information: America's Party (political party)
Justice Party
Party Ballot Access:[93][94] Mississippi, Oregon, Utah - (19 Electoral)
Further information: Justice Party (United States)

Party conventions

Map of United States showing Charlotte, Tampa, Nashville, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Cullman, and Baltimore
Charlotte
Charlotte
Tampa
Tampa
Nashville
Nashville
Las Vegas
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Cullman
Cullman
Baltimore
Baltimore
Philadelphia
Philadelphia
class=notpageimage|
Sites of the 2012 National Party conventions (new)
Major parties
Third parties

See also

References

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Further reading

  • William G. Mayer and Jonathan Bernstein, eds. The Making of the Presidential Candidates, 2012 (Rowman & Littlefield; 2012) 241 pages; ISBN 978-1-4422-1170-4; Scholars explore nominations in the post-public-funding era, digital media and campaigns, television coverage, and the Tea Party.
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