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{{Infobox hurricane current
{{Infobox hurricane current
|name=Tropical Storm Fabio
|name=Tropical Storm Fabio
|time=8 p.m. [[Pacific Daylight Time|PDT]] July 16 (0300 [[Coordinated Universal Time|UTC]] July 17)<!-- SAME DAY, PDT AND UTC: TIME PDT (TIME UTC) DATE. DIFFERENT DAYS, PDT AND UTC: TIME PDT DATE PDT (TIME UTC DATE UTC) ///NOTICE THE DATE UTC INSIDE THE PARENTHESIS NOT OUTSIDE-->
|time=2 a.m. [[Pacific Daylight Time|PDT]] (0900 [[Coordinated Universal Time|UTC]] July 17)<!-- SAME DAY, PDT AND UTC: TIME PDT (TIME UTC) DATE. DIFFERENT DAYS, PDT AND UTC: TIME PDT DATE PDT (TIME UTC DATE UTC) ///NOTICE THE DATE UTC INSIDE THE PARENTHESIS NOT OUTSIDE-->
|category=storm
|category=storm
|type=tropical storm
|type=tropical storm
|image=Tropical_Storm_Fabio_Jul_17_0200Z..gif
|image=Tropical Storm Fabio Jul 16 2012 1830Z.jpg
|track=06E 2012 5day.gif
|track=06E 2012 5day.gif
|track_width=170px
|track_width=170px
|track_topcaption = <font/>
|track_topcaption = <font/>
|location=[[latitude|20.3°N]] [[longitude|120.4°W]] ± 15 nm<br />About 700 mi (1125 km) [[west-southwest|WSW]] of southern tip of [[Baja California peninsula|Baja California]]
|location=[[latitude|21.3°N]] [[longitude|120.3°W]] ± 15 nm<br />About 675 mi (1085 km) [[west-southwest|WSW]] of southern tip of [[Baja California peninsula|Baja California]]
|1sustained=55 [[Knot (speed)|knots]] (65 [[mph]]; 100 [[km/h]])
|1sustained=45 [[Knot (speed)|knots]] (50 [[mph]]; 80 [[km/h]])
|gusts=65 knots (75 mph; 120 km/h)
|gusts=55 knots (60 mph; 100 km/h)
|pressure=994 [[mbar]] ([[hPa]]; 29.35 [[inHg]])
|pressure=996 [[mbar]] ([[hPa]]; 29.41 [[inHg]])
|movement=[[north|N]] at 7 kt (8 mph; 13 km/h)
|movement=[[north|N]] at 8 kt (9 mph; 14 km/h)
|sectnum=2
|sectnum=2
}}
}}
Line 241: Line 241:
| 17.9875 | | Emilia
| 17.9875 | | Emilia
| 14.7050 | 0.1225 | Daniel
| 14.7050 | 0.1225 | Daniel
| 9.6550 | | Fabio
| 9.8575 | | Fabio
| 7.1500 | | [[Hurricane Bud (2012)|Bud]]
| 7.1500 | | [[Hurricane Bud (2012)|Bud]]
| 3.5100 | | [[Hurricane Carlotta (2012)|Carlotta]]
| 3.5100 | | [[Hurricane Carlotta (2012)|Carlotta]]

Revision as of 09:13, 17 July 2012

2012 Pacific hurricane season
Season summary map
Seasonal boundaries
First system formedMay 14, 2012
Last system dissipatedSeason still active
Strongest storm
NameEmilia
 • Maximum winds140 mph (220 km/h)
 • Lowest pressure945 mbar (hPa; 27.91 inHg)
Seasonal statistics
Total depressions6
Total storms6
Hurricanes5
Major hurricanes
(Cat. 3+)		3
Total fatalities2 direct, 1 indirect
Total damageUnknown
Related article
Pacific hurricane seasons
2010, 2011, 2012, Post-2012

The 2012 Pacific hurricane season is an event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation. The season officially started on May 15, 2012 in the Eastern Pacific, although Tropical Storm Aletta developed a day prior. The season began on June 1, 2012 in the Central Pacific, and the entire season will end on November 30, 2012. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Pacific basin.

So far, the season has been relatively active, with one major hurricane forming in May, with the only time this occurring other than 2001. However, only one storm, Hurricane Carlotta, formed in June due to unfavorable conditions. The activity is currently picking up as of early to mid-July due to an El-Nino event. Hurricanes Daniel and Emilia both attained major hurricane status early in the month of July over the open eastern Pacific waters, threatening no landmasses. Just prior to dissipation, Daniel crossed 140°W into the central Pacific ocean as a rapidly deteriorating tropical storm. On July 14, Hurricane Fabio unexpectedly intensified into a Category 2 hurricane over a favorable environment. It is the fifth hurricane of the season and it is only mid-July.

Seasonal forecasts

Predictions of tropical activity in the 2012 season
Source Date Named
storms 		Hurricanes Major
hurricanes
Average (1971–2006) 15.3 8.8 4.2
Record high activity 28 16 (tie) 10
Record low activity 8 (tie) 3 0 (tie)
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
NOAA May 24, 2012 12-18 5-9 2-5
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Actual activity 6 5 3

On May 24, the Climate Prediction Center released its pre-season outlook. The scientists stated a 30% chance of a below-normal season, a 50% chance of a near-normal season and a 20% chance of an above-normal season. The climatologists expected 12–18 named storms, with 5–9 becoming hurricanes, and 2–5 becoming major hurricanes. The below-normal activity forecast was because of increased wind shear and a high expectation of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions throughout the peak in the later months of summer, together with lingering La Niña conditions at the beginning of the season, even though there had already been two named systems – one tropical storm and one major hurricane – in the month of May.

Storms

Tropical Storm Aletta

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationMay 14 – May 19
Peak intensity50 mph (85 km/h) (1-min);
1000 mbar (hPa)

On May 12, the NHC started to monitor a tropical disturbance that had developed about 550 miles (890 km) to the south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.[1] During that day the disturbance moved quickly towards the northwest before early on May 14, the disturbance was deemed to have consolidated enough to be declared Tropical Depression One-E.[2] During that day the depression intensified further before it was declared a tropical storm and named Aletta.[3] On May 16, Tropical Storm Aletta reached its peak intensity of 50 mph (85 km/h), with a minimum low pressure of 1000 hPa. Later on May 16, Tropical Storm Aletta began to enter unfavorable environmental conditions, with increasing wind shear and dry air, which weakened the storm to a 40 mph (65 km/h) tropical storm. Very late on May 16, the National Hurricane Center downgraded Aletta to a tropical depression, as the system began losing its convection after turning to the west-northwest.[4] On May 17, Tropical Depression Aletta lost most of its convection, as it turned to the northwest.[5] Late on May 17, Aletta regained much of its convection, as it turned northward.[6] On May 18, Aletta lost all of its western and southern convection, due to wind shear as the storm turned northeastward, and continued to weaken. Aletta became post-tropical the next day, as it turned to the east.[7] Late on May 19, Aletta's remnant dissipated into a convectionless vortex, as it turned northeast.[8] Later, Aletta's convectionless remnant slowly accelerated westward, before dissipating completely on May 21.

Hurricane Bud

Category 3 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationMay 20 – May 26
Peak intensity115 mph (185 km/h) (1-min);
960 mbar (hPa)
Main article: Hurricane Bud (2012)

On May 12, a low pressure system formed just south of eastern Panama. The storm slowly organized as it moved westwards. On May 15, the storm acquired a burst of convection, and the NHC began to monitor the system.[9] As the storm turned west-northwestwards, it organized significantly. On May 17, wind shear began to erode the storm's convection, weakening the system and causing it to stall, although the system continued to persist. On May 20, the storm strengthened rapidly, as it began moving again, and that night the NHC reported that the storm had strengthened into Tropical Depression Two-E.[10] Then, as it slightly accelerated to the west, the storm continued to organize, eventually intensifying into Tropical Storm Bud on May 22, with 40 mph sustained winds. Bud remained at this intensity for one day before strengthening, starting early on May 23, and reached winds of 65 mph (100 km/h) during the afternoon. By the next morning (May 24), Bud continued its rapid intensification, reaching sustained winds of 85 mph, and then 110 mph by the afternoon, as the system turned northward. Later on the same day, Bud turned to the northeast, and began to approach the coast of Western Mexico. Late on May 24, Bud intensified further into a Category 3 major hurricane, and obtained a peak intensity of 115 mph winds, with a minimum central low pressure of 960 mbars.[11] Hurricane Bud was able to maintain Category 3 intensity for the next several hours, even its outer rainbands began moving onshore in Western Mexico. Very early on May 25, Hurricane Bud weakened down to a strong Category 2 hurricane.[12] Hurricane Bud rapidly began to weaken, as it slowly moved onshore. Bud quickly lost most of its convection, which was sheared mainly to the north. During the mid-afternoon of May 25, Bud weakened down to a strong tropical storm, as it began making landfall on Western Mexico. Further weakening ensued over the next 24 hours, and Bud degenerated into a remnant low early on May 26.

Hurricane Carlotta

Main article: Hurricane Carlotta (2012)
Category 2 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationJune 13 – June 16
Peak intensity105 mph (165 km/h) (1-min);
976 mbar (hPa)

A tropical wave in the Eastern Pacific quickly became organized on June 13 and became Tropical Depression Three-E that evening. The National Hurricane Center upgraded it to a Tropical Storm and named it "Carlotta" the next day. Carlotta passed over very favorable environmental conditions that allowed further intensification into a Category 2 hurricane. On June 15, Carlotta weakened back into a Category 1 and then made landfall near Puerto Escondido, Mexico with maximum winds of 90 mph. After making its landfall, Carlotta quickly weakened to a tropical depression because of the mountainous terrain along the coastline. Carlotta continued to move westward, and soon dissipated to a remnant low, late on June 16. Its remnants later merged with another trough of low pressure.

Upon formation, hurricane watches were issued for the southern coastline of Mexico. This was later upgraded to a warning when Carlotta became a hurricane. The storm made landfall in southern Mexico, bringing with it heavy rains and gusty winds which caused flash floods and numerous landslides along the area, primarily the state of Oaxaca. A total of three people were killed by Carlotta, all of them in Oaxaca. Due to the severity of the situation in Oaxaca the governor requested for a state of emergency to be declared to his state, which it did in order to help people affected by the hurricane.

Hurricane Daniel

Category 3 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationJuly 4 – July 11
Peak intensity115 mph (185 km/h) (1-min);
961 mbar (hPa)

Early on July 2, the National Hurricane Center began monitoring an area of disturbed weather about 475 mi (764 km) south-southeast of Acapulco. Over the next 24 hours, the disturbance continued to become increasingly better organized, and a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert was issued on the system early on July 3. By early on July 4, the system had gained enough organization to be declared as Tropical Depression Four-E. On July 5, Four-E became Tropical Storm Daniel. The cyclone then slowly intensified, and after having been situated over a favorable environment for two days, it intensified into a hurricane. Overnight July 7 to July 8, Daniel rapidly intensified further into a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 105 mph (165 km/h). Just hours later, Daniel reached its peak intensity of 115 mph (185 km/h) and a central pressure of 961 millibars, a Category 3 hurricane, although the eye was already over cooler waters. However, Daniel only maintained Category 3 status briefly, and six hours later, the eye became less well-defined and the storm weakened back to a Category 2 hurricane. The system maintained this intensity for a while, but by July 9, the hurricane weakened further to a Category 1. Early on July 10, Daniel continued to weaken, eventually becoming a small, shallow tropical storm over a low ocean heat content. The storm then crossed 140°W into the central Pacific as a heavily sheared tropical storm with little convection. On July 11, Daniel's low level circulation center started to became exposed under moderate vertical wind shear. It further weakened into a tropical depression later that day and then degenerated into a remnant low east-southeast of Hawaii, as it became a convectionless vortex. The remnants persisted for almost a week after weakening and eventually brushed Hawaii with little to no effects. Late on July 16, the remnant low of Daniel crossed the International Date Line.

Hurricane Emilia

Category 4 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationJuly 7 – July 15
Peak intensity140 mph (220 km/h) (1-min);
945 mbar (hPa)

A small but well-defined area of disturbed weather became organized enough to be declared as Tropical Depression Five-E on July 7, about 500 mi (800 km) south-southwest of Acapulco. Later the same day the depression gained sufficient organization to be classified as a tropical storm, receiving the name "Emilia", the fifth named storm of the season. Emilia reached hurricane status early on July 9 and began to rapidly intensify into a Category 3 hurricane as the eastern outflow channel from Daniel that had previously inhibited development weakened and allowed Emilia to ventilate its core in all directions. Early on July 10, Emilia reached its peak intensity as a Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 140 mph and a barometric pressure of 945 mbar. After its peak, Emilia began to fluctuate between a strong Category 2 hurricane and a weak Category 3 hurricane. Although the storm was over cool waters, it was able to maintain this intensity because of its annular structure. However, late on July 12, the eye disappeared from satellite imagery and the storm weakened to a Category 1 hurricane. Early the next morning, it was observed that Emilia passed just north of Daniel's path days earlier, which was a hostile environment. In response to this, the storm dropped to below hurricane status. For a brief period while at tropical storm strength, Emilia passed over a tongue of warmer Sea Surface Temperatures, causing its convection to blossom slightly and weakening to temporarily halt. However, Emilia quickly encountered colder waters and drier air, once again, and weakened to a minimal tropical storm, as a result. Early on July 15, the system transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone.

Hurricane Fabio

Tropical Storm Fabio
Current storm status
Tropical storm (1-min mean)
File:Tropical Storm Fabio Jul 17 0200Z..gif
Satellite image
Forecast map
As of:2 a.m. PDT (0900 UTC July 17)
Location:21.3°N 120.3°W ± 15 nm
About 675 mi (1085 km) WSW of southern tip of Baja California
Sustained winds:45 knots (50 mph; 80 km/h) (1-min mean)
gusting to 55 knots (60 mph; 100 km/h)
Pressure:996 mbar (hPa; 29.41 inHg)
Movement:N at 8 kt (9 mph; 14 km/h)
See more detailed information.

Early on July 12, a well-defined area of low pressure south of Mexico gained enough organization to be declared as Tropical Depression Six-E. Just hours after formation, the sustained winds exceeded 38 miles per hour, and organization became sufficient enough for the depression to be upgraded to Tropical Storm Fabio, the sixth named storm of the season. During the afternoon hours of July 13, Fabio intensified into a Category 1 hurricane, with sustained winds of 80 mph. Later that night, Fabio continued to intensify, and became a strong Category 1 with 90 mph sustained winds. The storm maintained this intensity for a while, before rapidly and unexpectedly intensifying into a 105 mph Category 2 hurricane during the afternoon hours of July 14, as it was being noticed that the cyclone's eye became better-defined, the cloud tops cooled and the system became more symmetric. However, less than 24 hours after becoming a Category 2, the storm began ingesting drier air and was situated over cooler waters, causing it to progressively weaken to below hurricane strength.

Current storm information

As of 8 p.m. PDT July 16 (2100 UTC July 17), Tropical Storm Fabio is located within 15 nautical miles of 20°18′N 120°24′W / 20.3°N 120.4°W / 20.3; -120.4 (Fabio), about 700 mi (1125 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Maximum sustained winds are 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h), with stronger gusts. Minimum central pressure is 994 mbar (hPa; 29.35 InHg), and the system is moving north at 7 kt (8 mph, 13 km/h).

Tropical storm force winds up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.

For latest official information see:

Timeline of recent events

Main article: Timeline of the 2012 Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Carlotta (2012)Hurricane Bud (2012)Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)

ACE (104kt²) (Source) — Storm:
1 18.0 Emilia 4 7.15 Bud
2 14.7
(0.123) 		Daniel 5 3.51 Carlotta
3 9.86 Fabio 6 1.18 Aletta
Total: 54.4 (0.123)

The table on the right shows the ACE for each storm in the season. Broadly speaking, the ACE is a measure of the power of a hurricane multiplied by the length of time it existed, so storms that last a long time, as well as particularly strong hurricanes, have high ACEs. ACE is calculated for only full advisories on specifically tropical systems reaching or exceeding wind speeds of 34 knots (39 mph, 63 km/h), or tropical storm strength. Accordingly, tropical depressions are not included here. The ACE also does not include subtropical storms. Later the NHC reexamines the data, and produces a final report on each storm, which can lead to the ACE for a storm being revised either upward or downward. Until the final reports are issued, ACEs are, therefore, provisional.

The figures in parentheses are for storms in the Central Pacific basin west of 140°W; those not in parentheses are for the Eastern Pacific basin.

Storm names

The following names will be used for named storms that form in the Eastern Pacific in 2012. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2013. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2018 season. This is the same list used in the 2006 season.

  • Aletta
  • Bud
  • Carlotta
  • Daniel
  • Emilia
  • Fabio (active)
  • Gilma (unused)
  • Hector (unused)
  • Ileana (unused)
  • John (unused)
  • Kristy (unused)
  • Lane (unused)
  • Miriam (unused)
  • Norman (unused)
  • Olivia (unused)
  • Paul (unused)
  • Rosa (unused)
  • Sergio (unused)
  • Tara (unused)
  • Vicente (unused)
  • Willa (unused)
  • Xavier (unused)
  • Yolanda (unused)
  • Zeke (unused)

The Central Pacific season originates around the islands of Hawaii. There are several names that are in four lists; the next four names to be used are shown below.

  • Pewa (unused)
  • Unala (unused)
  • Wali (unused)
  • Ana (unused)

Season effects

This is a table of all of the storms in the 2012 Pacific hurricane season. It includes their durations, peak intensities, names, landfall(s), damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but are still storm-related. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a wave, or a low. All of the damage figures are in 2012 USD.

Saffir–Simpson scale
TD TS C1 C2 C3 C4 C5
2012 Pacific hurricane season statistics
Storm
name 		Dates active Storm category
at peak intensity 		Max 1-min
wind
mph (km/h) 		Min.
press.
(mbar) 		Areas affected Damage
(USD) 		Deaths Ref(s)
Aletta May 14 – May 19 Tropical storm 50 (85) 1000 None None None
Bud May 20 – May 26 Category 3 hurricane 115 (185) 960 Western Mexico Minimal None
Carlotta June 13 – June 16 Category 2 hurricane 105 (165) 976 Southern Mexico (Oaxaca) Unknown 2 (1)
Daniel July 4 – July 11 Category 3 hurricane 115 (185) 961 None None None
Emilia July 7 – July 15 Category 4 hurricane 140 (220) 945 None None None
Fabio July 12 – Currently active Category 2 hurricane 105 (165) 972 None None None
Season aggregates
6 systems May 14 – Currently active    140 mph (220 km/h) 945 Unknown 2 (1)  

See also

References

  1. ^ Jack Beven (May 12, 2012). "Special Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 15, 2012.
  2. ^ Todd Kimberlain (May 14, 2012). "Tropical Depression One-E Public Advisory Number 1". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 24, 2012.
  3. ^ Richard Pasch (May 15, 2012). "Tropical Storm Aletta Public Advisory Number 1". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 15, 2012.
  4. ^ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/gtwo/epac/201205170831/index.php?basin=epac&current_issuance=201205170831
  5. ^ "Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. 2012-05-17. Retrieved 2012-06-24.
  6. ^ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/gtwo/epac/201205172335/index.php?basin=epac&current_issuance=201205172335
  7. ^ Cangialosi, John (19 May 2012). "Post-Tropical Cyclone ALETTA Discussion 21". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 22 May 2012.
  8. ^ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/gtwo/epac/201205200000/index.php?basin=epac&current_issuance=201205200000
  9. ^ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/gtwo/epac/201205151740/index.php?basin=epac&current_issuance=201205151740
  10. ^ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/gtwo/epac/201205210237/index.php?basin=epac&current_issuance=201205210237
  11. ^ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/gtwo/epac/201205250534/index.php?basin=epac&current_issuance=201205250534
  12. ^ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/gtwo/epac/201205250836/index.php?basin=epac&current_issuance=201205250836

Template:2010-2019 Pacific hurricane seasons

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