2014 Scottish independence referendum

The Scottish Government intends to hold a referendum of the Scottish electorate on the issue of independence from the United Kingdom in the autumn of 2014. The Referendum Bill is a proposed parliamentary bill to set out the arrangements for this referendum which is likely to be put forward in 2013.

A white paper for the bill, setting out four possible options ranging from no change to full independence, was published on 30 November 2009. A draft bill for public consultation was published on 25 February 2010, setting out a two question yes/no referendum, proposing both further devolution or full independence. The Scottish National Party (SNP) minority government failed to obtain support for a referendum from other parties and eventually withdrew their plan for a referendum before the 2011 election. After winning an outright majority, the SNP pledged to hold an independence referendum. On 10 January 2012, the Scottish Government announced that they intend to hold the referendum in the autumn of 2014. The principal issues in the referendum are economic policy, defence arrangements, continued relations with the UK and membership of supranational organizations, particularly the European Union.

History

Devolution referendums

Scotland's location within the United Kingdom.

A proposal for Scottish devolution was put to a referendum in 1979, but resulted in no change, despite a narrow majority of votes cast being in favour of change. A Labour backbench MP successfully inserted a clause that the number voting 'Yes' had to exceed 40% of the total electorate. No further constitutional reform was proposed under the Conservative Thatcher and Major governments between 1979 and 1997. Soon after Labour returned to power in 1997, a second Scottish devolution referendum was held. Clear majorities expressed support for both a devolved Scottish Parliament and that Parliament having the power to vary the basic rate of income tax.

2007 SNP administration

Further information: Government of the 3rd Scottish Parliament

Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond and Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon at the launch of the National Conversation, 14 August 2007

Debating chamber of the Scottish Parliament

A commitment to hold a referendum in 2010 was part of the SNP's election manifesto when it contested the 2007 Scottish Parliament election. As a result of that election, it became the largest party in the Scottish Parliament, the devolved legislative assembly first established in 1999 for dealing with unreserved matters within Scotland, and formed a minority government led by First Minister Alex Salmond. The SNP administration accordingly launched a 'National Conversation' as a consultation exercise in August 2007, part of which included a draft of a referendum bill, as the Referendum (Scotland) Bill. After forming the Scottish Government in 2007, the SNP had a long standing policy of not holding any referendum until 2010, so as to be well into its term.

The legislative plans for the Referendum Bill were announced in late August/early September 2009 by the Scottish Government. As a culmination to the National Conversation, a white paper for the proposed Referendum Bill was published on 30 November 2009. The paper detailed four possible scenarios, with the text of the Bill and Referendum to be revealed later. The scenarios were: No Change, Devolution per the Calman Review, Full Devolution, and Full Independence. The Full Devolution option, while short of Independence, would make the Scottish Parliament responsible for the 'vast majority' of tax and spending in Scotland, with a remittance paid to the UK to "cover common UK public goods and services such as defence and foreign affairs." The paper acknowledged that while the SNP government did not support anything other than full independence, the Referendum Bill would have provisions for a multi-option referendum, and called on opposition parties to propose a suitable form for these options.

The Scottish Government published a draft version of the bill on 25 February 2010 for public consultation. The 84 page document was titled Scotland's Future: Draft Referendum (Scotland) Bill Consultation Paper and contained a consultation document and a draft version of the bill. The consultation paper set out the proposed ballot papers, the mechanics of the proposed referendum, and how the proposed referendum was to be regulated. Public responses were invited from February 25 to April 30.

The bill outlined three proposals. The first proposal was one of full devolution or 'devolution max', suggesting that the Scottish Parliament should be responsible for "all laws, taxes and duties in Scotland", with the exception of "defence and foreign affairs; financial regulation, monetary policy and the currency," which would be retained by the UK government. The second proposal outlined Calman type fiscal reform, gaining the additional powers and responsibilities of setting a Scottish rate of income tax that could vary by up to 10p in the pound compared to the rest of the UK, setting the rate of stamp duty land tax and "other minor taxes", and introducing new taxes in Scotland with the agreement of the UK parliament, and finally, "limited power to borrow money." The third proposal was for full independence, stating that the Scottish Parliament would gain the powers to be able to convert Scotland into a country which would "have the rights and responsibilities of a normal, sovereign state". This state would be a full Member State of the European Union, with the consequent social and economic relationship with the remainder of the UK which is already a member. Queen Elizabeth would remain as Scotland's head of state, while the United Kingdom would "become a monarchical and social Union – united kingdoms rather than a United Kingdom – maintaining a relationship forged in 1603 by the Union of the Crowns". The currency of Scotland would remain as the pound sterling (£) unless or until the Scottish electorate chose to adopt the euro (€), which would be left to a separate referendum.

In the third Scottish Parliament, only 50 of 129 MSPs (47 SNP, 2 from the Scottish Green Party and Margo McDonald) supported a referendum, with all of the other major parties opposed. A non-binding vote on the issue of a referendum was tabled by the Scottish Liberal Democrats in March 2009 as an amendment to a Labour debate on the economy. The SNP position was defeated with a 25-vote majority (47–72). Due to the opposition from the other main parties and the SNP's status as a minority administration, it was not expected that the SNP would be able to get the Referendum Bill passed into law when ultimately presented to the Scottish Parliament for debate, meaning that the referendum would not be able to be held. The Scottish Government eventually opted to withdraw the bill after failing to secure support from the opposition parties.

2011 SNP administration

Further information: Government of the 4th Scottish Parliament

The Scottish National Party repeated its commitment to hold an independence referendum when it published its election manifesto for the 2011 Scottish parliamentary election, in which it won an absolute majority for the first time. In a television debate days before the election, First Minister Alex Salmond stated that the referendum would be held in the "second half of the parliament". Salmond stated that this was because he wanted to secure more powers for the Scottish Parliament via the Scotland Bill first. The SNP gained an overall majority in the election, winning 69 of the 129 seats available, thereby gaining a mandate to hold an independence referendum.

In January 2012, the UK government offered to legislate to provide the Scottish Parliament with the specific powers to hold a referendum, providing it was "fair, legal and decisive". This would set terms of reference for the referendum, such as the question(s) asked, the electorate used and which body would organise the referendum. The Scottish Government then announced that they intended the referendum to be held in the autumn of 2014 and rejected the UK government's offer.

Date and eligibility

The Scottish Government intends to hold the referendum in the autumn of 2014. Some media reports have speculated that autumn 2014 was chosen by the Scottish Government because it was near to the 700th anniversary of the Battle of Bannockburn, although these claims have been denied by Alex Salmond. Other reports have suggested that the date was chosen because Scotland will host the 2014 Commonwealth Games and the 2014 Ryder Cup in the months prior to the vote.

Under the terms of the 2010 Draft Bill, the following people would be entitled to vote in the referendum:

• British citizens resident in Scotland;
• Commonwealth citizens resident in Scotland;
• citizens of other European Union countries resident in Scotland;
• members of the House of Lords resident in Scotland;
• Service/Crown personnel serving in the UK. or overseas in the armed forces or with Her Majesty's Government who are registered to vote in Scotland.

The SNP has proposed to reduce the voting age for the referendum from 18 to 16. In January 2012, Labour MSP Elaine Murray led a debate arguing that the franchise should be extended to Scots living outside Scotland. This was opposed by the Scottish Government, who argued that it would greatly increase the complexity of the referendum and cited evidence from the United Nations Human Rights Committee that a referendum not based on residence would be queried by other nations. In the House of Lords, Baroness Symons argued that the rest of the United Kingdom should be allowed to vote on Scottish independence, on the grounds that it would affect the whole country. This argument was rejected by the UK government, with Lord Wallace pointing to the fact that only two of 11 referenda since 1973 had been across all of the United Kingdom.

Legality

There are different views as to whether the Scottish Parliament has the power to legislate for a referendum relating to the issue of Scottish Independence. According to the BBC, under the current system of devolution, the Scottish Parliament does not have the power to unilaterally secede from the United Kingdom, because the constitution is a reserved matter for the UK parliament. However, according to the Scottish Government, the proposed referendum is an "advisory referendum on extending the powers of the Scottish Parliament", whose result "will have no legal effect on the Union." In January 2012, the UK Government expressed the contrary opinion that the holding of any referendum concerning the constitution would be outside the legislative competence of the Scottish Parliament. Lord Wallace, the Advocate General for Scotland, said that private individuals could successfully challenge a referendum bill passed by the Scottish Parliament. The UK parliament could temporarily transfer legal authority to the Scottish Parliament to prevent this, but the Scottish Government has objected to the attachment of conditions to any referendum by this process.

Oversight

In the 2010 Draft Bill, the Scottish Government proposed to set up a new commission to oversee the referendum. Members of that commission would be "nominated by, and accountable to, the Scottish Parliament." The commission was to be "with limited exceptions, be completely independent of the Scottish Parliament and Government in the conduct of its affairs", and be modelled on the existing Electoral Commission. The rules on how to conduct the poll and campaigns for the referendum would be based on existing UK legislation, being broadly formed from the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000. A Chief Counting Officer for the poll would be appointed by Scottish ministers, and be selected from an existing or former Scottish election Returning Officer. In January 2012, the UK government stated its preference for the Electoral Commission to oversee a Scottish independence referendum. BBC News then reported that the Scottish Government would accept this if the Electoral Commission was mandated to report to the Scottish Parliament during the referendum.

Campaign funding and costs

Based on the 2010 Draft Bill, for each specific proposal outcome that can be campaigned for, there would be allowed to exist one 'designated organisation', permitted to spend up to £750,000 on their campaign, including expenses, but they would also be entitled to one free mailshot to every household or voter in the poll. Political parties represented in the Scottish Parliament would be limited to a campaign budget of £100,000 including expenses, in addition to any activity through affiliation with one of the designated organisations.

According to the Scottish Government's consultation paper published on 25 February 2010, the cost of holding the referendum would "likely to be around £9.5 million", mostly spent on running the poll and the count. Costs would also include the posting of one neutral information leaflet about the referendum to every Scottish household, and one free mailshot to every household or voter in the poll for the 'designated organisations' (See Campaign funding). There is to be no public funding for campaigns, which would also be subject to spending limits.

Question

According to the British media, Salmond and the SNP added a second question in regards to devomax amid fears outright independence may not be achieved through the referendum. It was also reported that after the result was tabulated, the Scottish government would work with the British government to finalise the procedures for independence. It would also seek to have a written constitution of Scotland.

Campaign organisations

The campaign in favour of Scottish independence, Yes Scotland, was launched on 25 May 2012. Yes Scotland is being led by the Scottish National Party, with support from the Scottish Green Party. Its launch featured a number of celebrities and urged Scots to sign a declaration of support for independence. Alex Salmond stated that he hoped one million Scots would sign the declaration; the Sunday Mail newspaper reported that by 1 July approximately 22,000 Scots had done so. During the launch Salmond said:

This is the beginning of something really special - the beginning of the campaign to restore nationhood to Scotland. We want a Scotland that is fairer and more prosperous. If the parliament can run education, why can't we run the economy? And if we can protect our old people why can't we protect ourselves without the obscenity of nuclear weapons.

The campaign against Scottish independence, Better Together, was launched on 25 June 2012. Better Together is being led by Alastair Darling, former Chancellor of the Exchequer, and has support from the Conservative Party, Liberal Democrats and Labour Party. Its campaign is led by Blue State Digital.

Issues

Devomax

The option of a devomax for a more empowered Holyrood, instead of outright independence, was option that the Salmond and the SNP said could be attractive to Scots. Details of what that would entail are unclear. The BBC suggested it could mean not having military chiefs and embassies, which would cost the Scottish government more money. Liberal Democrat Secretary of Scotland Michael Moore said that "devomax is really a brand without a product, a concept of more powers for Scotland without any detail about what that entails." Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron also added that should the vote go against independence additional discussions on empowering Holyrood would occur. Debated in The Guardian also suggested Scottish independence could benefit the UK as well, while also saying devomax should not be on the ballot as it could result in cross-voting for those who favour independence but look at this as a fallback option.

Monarchy

The SNP is in favour of retaining cultural and other ties with the UK and would apply to join the Commonwealth of Nations. In regards to maintaining the British monarchy in Scotland, Salmond has said the monarchy would be retained, while his close relationship with Queen Elizabeth II was seen as favourable towards maintaining ties. However, she was still said to "fear" for the future of the Great Britain, but will accept the result of the referendum. Scottish Liberal Democrat Willie Rennie also asked for clarification on the issue, while Holyrood's justice committee convenor, Christine Grahame, pledged to hold a referendum on maintaining a "full-blown monarchy, an edited version or go for a republic."

Taxation revenue and currency

Another issue in the election is to maintain Scottish control of income earned within Scottish territory, particulary brent crude produces in the North Sea (90% of the UK's oil production comes from Scottish territorial waters). The Scottish former Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling, who is heading the campaign against independence, challenged Salmond's plans to maintain a currency union with the UK and continue to use the British pound. He said that voters in the rest of the UK could choose not to be in a currency union with Scotland and added criticism of Salmond in sarcastically repeating the mantra "everything will change but nothing will change." He further noted:

He is saying we will keep the pound, be in a currency union with the rest of the United Kingdom, by the way not asking the rest of the UK whether they want that, and entering into the sort of currency union you have got in the eurozone right now. My argument is why on earth would you want to do that when everybody knows currency union inevitably takes you to closer economic and fiscal union? In other words you end up where you started. To argue in some way it is not going to change anything at all, well, what is the point of it?"

Defence

In defence issues, Scotland would need its own army and officer corps, possibly in line with smaller countries like Denmark and Norway that are also a part of NATO, whose membership it could inherit. The most controversial repercussion of an independent vote would be the SNP's objection to having nuclear weapons on its territory with Salmond telling Holyrood that "it is inconceivable that an independent nation of 5,250,000 people would tolerate the continued presence of weapons of mass destruction on its soil." The Trident nuclear missile system is based at Coulport weapons depot and naval base of Faslane in the Firth of Clyde area. These would have to be phased out, but British military leaders reported that there was no alternative site for the missiles. This also caused consternation in the United States. A seminar hosted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace asked: "In the absence of a suitable option for re-basing the submarines in England or Wales, the United Kingdom's Royal Navy must consider a range of alternatives -- including disarmament." Questions were also asked at a hearing in Westminster in regards to recruitment from Scotland for the British Armed Forces at a time of downsizing and speculation about the due separation of assets.

European Union and United Nations

The SNP also advocated entry into the European Union, but with reservations over keeping control of its own taxation and sovereign issues. Another issue was Scotland's membership of the United Nations, however British Prime Minister David Cameron suggested an independent Scotland would be "marginalised" at the UN and NATO. He also added that there was no question of the UK losing its permanent seat at the United Nations Security Council. It was reported in The Spectator and The Independent that Spain may object to Scottish membership of the EU amid fears of repercussion within its own Catalonia and Basque country, but this was denied by the Spanish Government.

Sport

There have also been suggestion that the 2014 Commonwealth Games, taking place two months before the election, in Glasgow could be used to showcase Scotland. Though the SNP denied and criticised any links between the Games and the referendum, Scott Stevenson, the director of sport at Commonwealth Games Canada, related the Canadian experience with Quebecois nationalism and said:

I'm pretty optimistic there'll be greater interest in Glasgow than some recent Games. I've asked in meetings how we can expect the political issues to play out and that politics won't be put into the Games. Athletes want to come in and compete, unencumbered by politics."

This also came in light of the 1986 Commonwealth Games in Edinburgh, the last time Scotland hosted the Games, which was boycotted by a majority of countries due to British support for South Africa amidst a backdrop of the sporting boycott of South Africa. The timing parallel with using the Games and the referendum was also made by The Guardian.

Similarly, during the 2012 Summer Olympics, Salmond said that this would be Scotland's last appearance as part of Great Britain at the Olympics before it competes as an independent Scotland in the 2016 Summer Olympics. International Olympic Committee representative Craig Reedie suggested that Scots would have to continue to represent Great Britain in 2016, as international recognition of an independent Scotland would not be immediately conferred after the referendum. He also questioned whether an independent Scotland could also support its athletes to the same extent as Great Britain. Former prime minister Gordon Brown also pointed to the medal count for Great Britain in saying it showed the success of a union that included the two nations.

Same-sex marriage

As the majority of responses to the consultation were opposed to same-sex marriage, the SNP's stance on legalising the institution by 2015 was controversial. During campaign tours Salmond and other SNP MSPs were asked questions about the issue along with independence. Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon still suggested that, despite polling to the contrary, a majority of people supported the move. The BBC suggested the bold tactic could be a risk as voters who opposed same-sex marriage could turn against supporting independence.

Endorsements

Canon Kenyon Wright, who led the Scottish Constitutional Convention campaigning for a devolved parliament, said that the terms of the election should be governed by Holyrood and not dictated by Westminster. The Yes Scotland campaign was launches with endorsements from internationally renown Scottish personalities, including Sean Connery. Brian Cox also said that Scotland was under "centralised servitude" and talked of his disenchantment with Labour governments in Westminster, including that led by the Scot Gordon Brown. "The parliament at Westminster can see no further than the end of its own bridge." National poet Liz Lochhead read a poem deals with the English-Scottish rivalry during the 16th century. Author Harry Reid suggested a rejection vote would depend on the ability of Labour to revive its traditional popularity in Scotland.

Plaid Cymru's Leanne Wood expressed support for the Yes Scotland campaign. She also added that British history was at "a hinge point" and that Wales would follow with independence within a generation but continue to be a part of a "neighbourhood of nations." She further said that England is a sister nation with which all three nations have a "common Britishness." [sic]

During the premier of the Pixar movie Brave, which Salmond attended and pitches for independence, Emma Thompson, who lives half the year in Scotland, warned against dividing Great Britain "in an ever-shrinking world," despite saying Great Britain "was so awful to Scotland."

Polling

Polls have been conducted in two main formats, either asking a straight yes or no question on independence, or including some form of increased devolution as a third option.

Date	Polling agency	Support Independence (%)	Oppose Independence (%)	Undecided (%)	Source
January 2012	Ipsos MORI	39	50	11
8 February 2012	YouGov	30	54	-
June 2012	Ipsos MORI	35	55	10
19 August 2012	YouGov	27	60	13

Date	Polling agency	Support Independence (%)	Support Devomax (%)	Support Status quo (%)	Undecided (%)	Source
1 November 2011	TNS BMRB	28	33	29	10
13 January 2012	ICM	26	26	33	10

Potential consequences

According to the Scottish Government's consultation paper published on 25 February 2010, if there was a 'yes, yes' outcome of the poll, then following the "necessary negotiations" between the Scottish and UK governments, "it would then be for the Scottish and UK parliaments to act on the expressed will of the Scottish people". If there was a yes vote for Proposal 1 (further devolution) but not Proposal 2 (powers for independence), then depending on the measures voted for, they would be implemented by an Act of Parliament, Orders in Council, or a combination of the two.

Opinion polls also show a rise in support for stronger powers for the National Assembly for Wales if Scotland should choose to be independent.

See also

• Constitution of the United Kingdom
• Devo Plus
• History of Scottish devolution
• History of the Scottish National Party
• Politics of the United Kingdom

External links

• Scottish Government
• Scottish Government Referendum 2014 site
• BBC Q&A