Redskins Rule

The Redskins Rule is a trend involving National Football League games and United States presidential elections. Briefly stated, there is a high correlation between the outcome of the last Washington Redskins home football game prior to the U.S. Presidential Election and the outcome of the election: when the Redskins win, the incumbent party wins the electoral vote for the White House; when the Redskins lose, the non-incumbent party wins. This coincidence has been noted by many sports and political commentators and has held true in every election since 1940, except for that of 2004, and 2012.

History

The Redskins moved to Washington in 1937. Since then, there have been 18 presidential elections. In 17 of those, the following rule applied:

If the Redskins win their last home game before the election, the party that won the previous election wins the next election and that if the Redskins lose, the challenging party's candidate wins.

The Redskins Rule was first noticed by Steve Hirdt, executive vice president of the Elias Sports Bureau, in 2000; as a matter of Washington folklore it was already established by the time of the 1992 election.

Twenty-first century

In 2000, the Redskins would begin what would become a four game losing streak with retrospect to the rule when they lost to the Titans. George W. Bush would end up defeating Al Gore in the electoral college, but would lose the popular vote. This would cause problems for the original version of the rule after the 2004 election.

In 2004, the Redskins lost their last home game before the presidential election, indicating the incumbent should have lost; however, George W. Bush (the incumbent) went on to defeat John Kerry. Steve Hirdt, credited with the discovery of the rule, then modified it to refer not to the incumbent party in the White House but to the party that last won the popular vote. In the election in 2000, Al Gore won the popular vote, and thereby the revised Redskin Rule has been upheld.

In 2008, the Redskins lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers, thereby predicting a win for Illinois Senator Barack Obama over Arizona Senator John McCain because George W. Bush won the popular vote in 2004.

On November 4, 2012, the Redskins lost against the Carolina Panthers. It was the last home game for the Redskins before the 2012 Presidential Election, which took place on November 6. The Redskins Rule predicted an outright loss for incumbent Barack Obama against challenger Mitt Romney, or that Obama would lose the popular vote and still take the Electoral College. However, incumbent Barack Obama won the election with 332 electoral votes, therefore the Redskins Rule did not hold in 2012.

Results

Year	Presidential Election Result	Redskins (Score)	Opponent (Score)	Redskins Win or Lose?	Incumbent Party Win or Lose?	Rule upheld?*	Popular Vote Won
2012	Obama defeats Romney	Redskins 13	Carolina Panthers 21	lose	wins	no	Obama
2008	Obama defeats McCain	Redskins 6	Pittsburgh Steelers 23	lose	loses	yes	Obama
2004	Bush defeats Kerry	Redskins 14	Green Bay Packers 28	lose	wins	yes*	Bush
2000	Bush defeats Gore	Redskins 21	Tennessee Titans 27	lose	loses	yes	Gore
1996	Clinton defeats Dole	Redskins 31	Indianapolis Colts 16	win	wins	yes	Clinton
1992	Clinton defeats Bush	Redskins 7	New York Giants 24	lose	loses	yes	Clinton
1988	Bush defeats Dukakis	Redskins 27	New Orleans Saints 24	win	wins	yes	Bush
1984	Reagan defeats Mondale	Redskins 27	Atlanta Falcons 14	win	wins	yes	Reagan
1980	Reagan defeats Carter	Redskins 14	Minnesota Vikings 39	lose	loses	yes	Reagan
1976	Carter defeats Ford	Redskins 7	Dallas Cowboys 20	lose	loses	yes	Carter
1972	Nixon defeats McGovern	Redskins 24	Dallas Cowboys 20	win	wins	yes	Nixon
1968	Nixon defeats Humphrey	Redskins 10	New York Giants 13	lose	loses	yes	Nixon
1964	Johnson defeats Goldwater	Redskins 27	Chicago Bears 20	win	wins	yes	Johnson
1960	Kennedy defeats Nixon	Redskins 10	Cleveland Browns 31	lose	loses	yes	Kennedy
1956	Eisenhower defeats Stevenson	Redskins 20	Cleveland Browns 9	win	wins	yes	Eisenhower
1952	Eisenhower defeats Stevenson	Redskins 23	Pittsburgh Steelers 24	lose	loses	yes	Eisenhower
1948	Truman defeats Dewey	Redskins 59	Boston Yanks 21	win	wins	yes	Truman
1944	Roosevelt defeats Dewey	Redskins 14	Cleveland Rams 10	win	wins	yes	Roosevelt
1940	Roosevelt defeats Willkie	Redskins 37	Pittsburgh Steelers 10	win	wins	yes	Roosevelt

* Upheld under revised rule

External links

• Peter Baker (2008-11-04). "Is Redskins Game an Omen for McCain?". NY Times Blog.
• Tim Lemke (2008-11-03). "Redskins Rule ideal for 'Monday Night'". Washington Times.
• "Obama elected after Redskins omen". BBC. 2008-11-05.
• "The Redskin Rule". Today's ACC Headlines. 2008-11-03.
• Adam Schefter (2008-11-02). "Who Obama, McCain should Root for Monday". NFL Blogs.
• Chris Sprow. "The Redskins Once Again Control the Presidential Election". ESPN.
• Bill Koester (2012-11-01). "An election decided on the gridiron?". PUC Chronicle.
• Josh Katzowitz (2012-11-01). "A Redskins victory vs. Panthers means Obama wins, loss means Romney wins". CBS Sports.
• David Grant (2012-11-04). "Redskins Rule:How football outcomes predict the presidential election". CS Monitor.