2013 Armenian presidential election

Armenian presidential election, 2013

February 18, 2013 (2013-02-18)

Nominee Serzh Sargsyan Raffi Hovannisian Party Republican Heritage Popular vote 861,160 539,672 Percentage 58.64% 36.75%

President before election Serzh Sargsyan Republican Elected President Serzh Sargsyan Republican

Presidential elections were held in Armenia on 18 February 2013. In the run-up to the elections, Armenian's first President Levon Ter-Petrosyan and one of the richest men in the country Gagik Tsarukyan, also leader of the second largest parliamentary party Prosperous Armenia, withdrew from the race in December 2012. Many believed that no candidate would be able to challenge incumbent President Serzh Sargsyan, others stated that people see "absence of alternatives" and these factors caused great apathy among the public. On 31 January 2013, candidate Paruyr Hayrikyan was shot, but he recovered soon and urged two other main opposition candidates Raffi Hovannisian and Hrant Bagratyan to unite around a single opposition candidate, in order to defeat President Sargsyan. On 10 February, he appealed to the Constitutional Court with a request to postpone the election for 14 days and stated that he will take it back in case the three main opposition candidate decide to unite around a single candidate, but he withdrew the appeal the next day.

The elections resulted in a victory for incumbent President Sargsyan, who received 59% of the vote. Hovannisian came second with 37%, while the other candidates earned less than 4% of the total vote.

Sargsyan's main opponent Raffi Hovannisian claimed victory due to alleged electoral fraud. In days following the election, mass protests took place on Yerevan's Freedom Square. Hovannisian urged Sargsyan to accept "people's victory" and concede his defeat.

Background

The previous presidential election in Armenia was held in February 2008. Sargsyan was announced president with 52.8% of the popular vote. Armenia's first president, Levon Ter-Petrosyan, finished second with 21.5%. Immediately after the results were announced, thousands of Ter-Petrosyan's supporters gathered in Yerevan's Freedom Square to protest against electoral fraud. Eventually, the police and the army (allegedly) clashed with the protesters, resulting in the death of ten people (eight protesters and two policemen).

Less than a year earlier—in May 2012—Armenians voted in the parliament election. The ruling Republican Party of Armenia of President Sargsyan won majority and formed the government. Besides RPA's close partner Rule of Law, the other four parties that won seats at the parliament, did not recognize the legitimacy of the May election. On December 15, 2012, the Republican Party officially nominated Serzh Sargsyan as the party candidate. In December 2012, the second and third largest parties represented in the National Assembly announced that they will not nominate candidates, nor will support candidates in the upcoming election. First on December 12, 2012, Prosperous Armenia, the second largest party in the parliament, announced about their decision, While on December 25, 2012, Armenia's first president Levon Ter-Petrosyan announced that he will not participate in the upcoming election, thought it was initially announced that Ter-Petrosyan will be the candidate of the Armenian National Congress.

On December 26, 2012, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation announced their decision not to nominate a candidate. Thus, three major non-government parties—the ARF, ANC and PAP—did not participate in this election.

Candidates

• Hrant Bagratyan, the leader of Freedom party, Prime Minister of Armenia from 1993 to 1996, a member of the Armenian National Congress
• Andrias Ghukasyan, a political analyst, Radio Hay director
• Paruyr Hayrikyan, former Soviet dissident, the leader of the Union for National Self-Determination party
• Raffi Hovannisian, the first Foreign Minister of Armenia (1991-1992), leader of the Heritage party
• Arman Melikyan, candidate in the 2008 presidential election
• Serzh Sargsyan, the incumbent President elected in the disputed 2008 election, leader of ruling Republican Party
• Vardan Sedrakyan, an epic poetry expert

Campaign

The campaign started on January 21, 2013 and will end on February 16. February 17 is an election silence day.

On February 8, 2013, Aram Harutyunyan, the leader of the National Conciliation Party, after one-day hunger strike, submitted a withdrawal statement.

Ghukasyan's hunger strike

One of the candidates, Andrias Ghukasyan started a hunger strike in front of the National Academy of Sciences building on January 21, 2013, demanding to "Stop Fake Elections"

Hayrikyan's assassination attempt

On January 31, 2013, just before midnight, candidate Paruyr Hayrikyan was shot in his right clavicle. He was taken to hospital. The doctors saved his life and two days later he was already able to give an interview in the hospital.

President Sarksyan stated that "those who were behind this crime aimed to affect the natural flow of elections", and continued that "this outrageous crime is directed not only against presidential candidate and statesman Hayrikyan but against our security." Hayrikyan, who was campaigning on a platform of taking a more pro-Western foreign policy accused a foreign secret service agency of the attack, possibly Russia, the country's traditional supporter. "I suspect a secret service of a foreign country... I said clearly that there was no alternative for us and we should move closer to Europe. We've had more harm than advantage from imperialistic Russia... I suggest that the assassination attempt is linked to these statements." The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) expressed concern over the incident. Ambassador Janez Lenarcic, the Director of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, said: "This attack is deeply distressing in view of the electoral process already under way, and I urge all stakeholders to refrain from any actions that might further aggravate the situation."

The election could have been postponed by two weeks according to the Electoral Law of Armenian, but on February 5, 2013, Hayrikyan made it clear that he will not appeal to the Constitutional Court with such request.

Hayrikyan's open letter to Hovannisian and Bagratyan

External videos
Hayrikyan urging Hovannisian and Bagratyan to come up with one joint opposition candidate, 9 Feb 2013

On February 9, 2013, the injured presidential candidate Paruyr Hayrikyan announced about his decision to postpone the election for 14 days, using his right given by the Armenian Constitution. He called two other major opposition candidates Raffi Hovannisian and Hrant Bagratyan to unite around a single opposition candidate. Hayrikyan stated that "if I postpone the elections for 14 days, we will still have the chance to propose a common candidate, to develop the final points of the pre-election projections and to present ourselves in the public ten more days like a unity. And in that case, our common percentage will reach not only 70%, but even more—80%."

Appeal to the Constitutional court

Despite his previous statements, presidential candidate Paruyr Hayrikyan, who was shot on January 31, 2013, appealed to the court on February 10, 2013. His aide stated "We've applied the Constitutional Court with a request to postpone the election for two weeks due to Paruyr Hayrikyan's health problems and the fact that he can't campaign."

While filling the request, Hayrikyan stated that in case Raffi Hovannisian and Hrant Bagratyan come together and decide to unite, he will take his request back. He in particular said "Should it happen [the unification] my right to equal competition would be breached, but it would be compensated by the creation of a united team. Moreover, the state would avoid additional expenses and the timetable of numerous observers would not be disrupted, otherwise I am obliged to hold a complete campaign during those two weeks along with the other candidates’ participation." The court will make a decision in 4 four days. The Constitutional Court must rule within four days on whether to delay the vote - a decision which will largely depend on doctors' evaluation of whether the candidate is well enough to campaign.

On February 11, 2013, however, Hayrikyan took his application back form the Constitutional Court of Armenia.

Opinion polls

Source	Date of Polling	Sargsyan	Hovannisian	Bagratyan	Hayrikyan	Others	Notes	Source
TNS opinion / EuFoA / IPSC	Template:Dtsh 31 Jan-5 Feb 2013	58	33	2.8	4.9	1.3	of the decided voters
Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization	Template:Dtsh 25 Jan-2 Feb 2013	69	11	5	5	10	of the decided voters
VTSIOM	Template:Dtsh 25–29 January 2013	61	27	4	5	3	of the decided voters
Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization	Template:Dtsh 15–23 January 2013	66	10	4	4	1.6	16% were undecided
TNS Opinion / EuFoA / IPSC	Template:Dtsh 15–20 January 2013	68.6	20.8	5	5	1.5	of the decided voters
Sociometer	Template:Dtsh December 2012	72	20	5.6	3	1.4	of the decided voters

Criticism

Many have questioned the reliability of opinion polls in Armenia, including the three main opposition candidates Raffi Hovannisian, Hrant Bagratyan, Paruyr Hayrikyan. For instance, Bagratyan called the Gallup International Association "fake Gallup" (սուտի Գելափ) in the interview to the Armenian service of the Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, making a reference to the organization's dispute with Gallup, Inc. over the name. The comedy show ArmComedy, named their 79th episode "Albert Adibunts", referring to the head of Sociometer center, Aharon Adibekyan, who is often criticized by opposition politicians.

Alternative polls

Whereas many find the opining polls in Armenia biased, alternative polls (such as online polls) have been conducted in the country. A special website was created for this purpose, Elect.am. According to the results there, of more than 4,700 voters, President Sargsyan had only 15% of the total vote, while his main opponent Raffi Hovannisian had about 40%, Hrant Bagratyan 11% and Paruyr Hayrikyan 4%. The epic poetry expert Vardan Sedrakyan got 26% of the vote, mainly by people who don't prefer any of the candidates.

Another poll was conduced in the website of Aravot Daily. In the poll there, Sargsyan had 12% of the vote, while Hovannisian had 32%, Bagratyan 17%, Hayrikyan 4%.

Exit polls

The Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization held an exit poll, the results were: 58% Sargsyan, 32% Hovannisian.

Claims of electoral irregularities

The opposition politicians claimed about speculations with the voting list. Raffi Hovannisian talked about the high possibility of fraud, caused by the fact that "700,000 Armenian citizens are on voter lists in the country, but work outside this impoverished nation."

Before the election campaign, the OSCE/ODIHR mission recommended the authorities to "toughen legal punishment for vote buying and other irregularities and make voter lists more accurate."

During and after the election, numerous cases of violation of Armenian electoral code was reported. Raffi Hovannisian's campaign headquarters reported over 100 violations, including open ballot (non-secret) voting, voter pressuring, multiple voting, etc.

Reaction

Internal

Runner-up Raffi Hovannisian didn't recognize the legitimacy of the election and on late night of February 18, 2013, he claimed victory in a press conference, stating "We all know that we have won", continuing "for the first time in 20 years the citizens have said yes to our constitution, to the rule of law, to democracy and our future."

On February 19, a mass of his supporters gathered in Yerevan's Freedom Square, where Hovannisian urged President Sargsyan to accept "people’s victory" and concede his defeat.

On February 20, 2013, Hovannisian and his supporters gathered in the Freedom Square. Hovannisian once gain claimed victory and called the people to stay in the square until tomorrow and meet President Sargsyan whose ruling party is expected to hold a rally there.

International

• United States: State Department spokesman Victoria Nuland stated the US "congratulates the people of Armenia on their February 18 presidential elections, which were judged by international observers to be generally well-administered and characterized by a respect for fundamental freedoms, including those of assembly and expression."
• Russia: President Vladimir Putin congratulated Sargsyan on winning reelection.
• Georgia: President Mikheil Saakashvili congratulated Sargsyan.
• Iran: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad congratulated Sargsyan and wished "prosperity and glory" to the Armenian nation.
• Belarus: Alexander Lukashenko congratulated Sargsyan, stating that his victory is a "testimony to the deep trust of voters and an appraisal of your service to the Armenian people."